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So a big earnings disappointment and guidance cut just crushed FI. But let’s have a look at what actually happened, except the stock price getting shitted on.
The Q3 organic revenue growth was +1% (Merchant Solutions + 5%, Financial Solutions - 3%). Management reset 2025 guidance to 3.5% - 4% organic growth and $8.50–$8.60 adjusted EPS and launched a “One Fiserv” action plan to refocus on clients and invest for growth.
They also announced leadership changes (new CFO Paul Todd) and are moving the listing to Nasdaq.
Does that create value or is FI a shiny poop?💩
The multiple is washed out.
At $66, against guided $8.50~$8.60 EPS, FI trades at roughly ~7.8× forward earnings. That is cheap for a global payments/software utility with sticky revenues. (Math: $66 ÷ $8.55 = 7.8×.)
In 2024 Fiserv generated $6.63B operating cash flow and spent $1.57B on capex (from the 10‑K). That is approz $5.06B in classic free cash flow (OCF – capex) or ~$9.0 per share using the reported 561.3M shares outstanding 13–14% free‑cash‑flow yield at today’s price.
Even after a softer 2025 YTD cash flow (company reported $2.88B free cash flow for the first nine months), the through‑cycle cash generation is significant. Also, they repurchased $5.4B of stock in the first nine months of 2025 (29.1M shares) and $1.0B in Q3 alone (7.2M shares). Which means, at 66 dollarinos, each $1B buys back ~15M shares is about 2.7% of the company. Even a more modest pace could shrink the share count materially and lift per‑share EPS/FCF.
With expectations cut and the stock price being DOODOOED on💩💩, the hurdle to surprise on the upside is lower. Management’s plan focuses on client service, Clover small‑business solutions, and operational excellence (including AI). These are the right levers for this franchise. Keep in mind these moves include expanding Clover into Canada via a TD Bank merchant deal and tuck‑ins like CardFree practical.
Also, commerce keeps digitising and cash continues to lose share to card/account‑to‑account payments. FI’s scale and distribution put it in the flow of funds. Management is also pushing new rails eg a stablecoin platform and a N Dakota bank partnership that serve as free options on future growth.
PRICE QUICK Maths If FI merely hits the new midpoint ($8.55), and the market assigns a still‑conservative 10× multiple once the dust settles, that’s ~$86. At 12× ~$103. At a still modest 15× (below many software‑enabled payment peers historically), ~$128. None of these assume heroics, just freaking stabilization and a normalizing multiple on a reset base.
Using the reported 2024 cash generation (OCF–capex), you degens are paying ~7.4× trailing owner earnings. If the company devoted even $1–2B/yr to buybacks at these levels (less than YTD pace), that alone could retire ~3–5% of shares annually, boosting per‑share compounding.
Execution beats the lowered bar. Even mid single digit organic growth with disciplined costs would support the $8.50–$8.60 EPS range and restore confidence.
So, at ~$66, you are paying ~7.8× the lowered 2025 EPS guide and getting a business that historically mints cash (2024 OCF–capex ≈ $5.1B) with meaningful buyback capacity. If execution simply stabilizes, a re‑rating to 10–12× earnings over time is very reasonable, with buybacks as a tailwind. That’s why I view FI at ~$66 as a strong value buy.
PS. JUST MY TWO CENTS IM JUST A DEGEN SO WHAT WOULD I KNOW.

$META I kind get. $MSFT I'm confused on. Only attribute it to long calls going into earnings still being burned off.
To be fair, $MSFT has really never traded that well. Just look at it since last earnings. Pod monkeys took profits QUICK after the spike up, and only recently like a week ago did it break it's consolidation for a "run up" into this earnings.

The list “dumb shits ” continues to expand throughout your whole trading career. It’s the normal process to have success and there are NO QUICK FIXES.

Pay that mortgage. Then scratch and dig to pay off ALL debt. Best thing I EVER did was get out of debt. The best outcomes were that five years of only buying bare essentials completely killed our need for instant gratification and once paid off, money starts to pile up QUICK! You won't regret it!