NFPBTC
NFP / Bitcoin
crypto

Agreed, and this is exactly the dynamic driving my short-term view. The June jobs report (57K vs 110K expected, plus downward revisions to April/May) pulled September rate hike odds from around 67% down to roughly a coin flip. That's the direct transmission mechanism you're describing: weaker data → lower rate hike odds → lower real yields / weaker dollar → gold catches a bid, since it's non-yielding and priced in USD.
Worth flagging though: the next NFP print isn't until August 7th, so there's a bit of a data vacuum before then. The nearer-term catalyst is likely the June CPI print (mid-July), which could cut either way — if inflation surprises to the upside (energy-driven, given the recent Hormuz/Iran de-escalation reversing), that hands the hawkish argument back to the Fed and could offset some of the bid gold got from the jobs data. But even by the time the June CPI data is released in the middle of the month, the very short-term short position I've suggested here may already have hit it's target.
So yeah, I'd expect this data-dependent chop to continue — gold whipsawing on each print until there's a clearer signal on whether the Fed actually pivots or just holds.

https://preview.redd.it/1cn4jscquwah1.png?width=1241&format=png&auto=webp&s=803a18288d674c52cb44d81710d3204b95d60612
GoldRaider testing from 9/1/2025 to 7/2/2026 on M1 chart.
Hey everyone,
A bit ago, I posted about a strategy test for my custom expert advisor, **Gold Raider** (specifically running **setfile #23**). The backtest scored a 100% win rate over 96 trades on a €1,000 account, with a max equity drawdown of just **3.67%**.
I’ve attached the full report image **GR4\_Set23\_Demo.png** for reference.
Naturally, a 100% win rate screams "hidden martingale or grid system that will eventually blow the account." However, I wanted to share a look at the architecture of the EA to show why it performs this way. **This is a pure single-order scalper with strict safety nets.**
# 📊 The Backtest Conditions (From GR4_Set23_Demo.png)
* **Broker / Leverage:** Fusion Markets Pty Ltd | 1:500
* **Data Quality:** 100% Real Ticks
* **Timeframe:** M1 (XAUUSD)
* **Total Net Profit:** 1,226.20 EUR (\~122% gain)
* **Profit Factor:** 128.73
# 🛠️ The Safety Architecture (Why it hasn't lost)
Instead of relying on dangerous money management, Gold Raider uses a multi-layered gatekeeper system to filter out bad entries, combined with aggressive exit management.
# 1. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation Gates
The entry engine doesn't just look at the M1 chart. To take a trade, it passes through three distinct validation filters:
* **Filter A (RSI Confirmation):** Dynamically tracks M5 momentum zones to ensure we aren’t buying the absolute top or selling the absolute bottom of a macro swing.
* **Filter B (Trend Strength Confirmation):** An optional higher-timeframe Efficiency Ratio filter that blocks trades if the market is moving too violently in the opposite direction.
* **Filter C (Range Validation):** Uses a structural lookback algorithm to calculate key volatility boundaries. It ensures the EA only fires when price is within safe execution zones.
# 2. Strict Protection & Safety Nets
The EA has hardcoded protective logic to shield the account from catastrophic black swan events:
* **No Grid / No Martingale:** It executes fixed lot sizes or automated equity-proportionate lot sizing. One trade at a time per side.
* **Hard Stop Loss & Emergency SL:** Every single trade is launched with an initial stop loss protection mechanism.
* **Aggressive Break-Even (BE) Logic:** The moment a scalp moves into a set amount of profit points, the EA aggressively moves the SL to lock in the trade at `Entry + 1 point`. This is exactly why the backtest shows a 100% win rate—trades that don't hit the primary target are choked out at break-even before they can turn into losses.
* **Built-in News Guard:** It integrates directly with the internal MT5 calendar to completely halt new entries during high-impact macroeconomic events (like NFP or FOMC).
# 🚀 Next Steps: Live Testing
The equity curve in **GR4\_Set23\_Demo.png** shows a very smooth, linear ascent because the break-even and trailing mechanics are highly optimized for MT5's historical real ticks.
Of course, the real enemy of an M1 gold scalper is live execution: **slippage, commissions, and spread widening**. The code does include a strict max-spread filter to prevent trading during toxic market hours, but forward testing is the only way to know for sure. I am moving this to a live demo/forward test to see how the execution holds up.
Would love to get your thoughts on the filter mechanics, or what further stress-tests you'd put an M1 scalper through!
#

Well I started buying gold and miner stocks related to gold last week and I will keep them even if the price drops to 3500 in which case I will add a bit to my position to keep the percentage in the portfolio.
Then when the price goes up I slowly unload to also match the percentage in portfolio with a gap. My leverage is 2:1
My best trade was buying gold on NFP 2023 on 6 octber at 1810 i guess with a leverage of 1:50
As capital grow I reduce the leverage to 1:2 for ease of mind. And diversify into many sectors

Trading with this level of leverage, I concluded that the potential is so vast (and the risk even greater) that there is no point in trying to build the account gradually; there are simply too many factors that could lead to wiping out the account. The saying "starting from nothing, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain" fits the situation well.
Thursday, July 2, 2026
I started the morning with 7 CHF and ended the day with a balance of 340 CHF, having withdrawn the majority of the profits. I am not advocating for this style of speculation; I simply want to share my results and reflections. Starting with 7 CHF, I opened a short position on one ounce of gold, and then—once the position moved into profit—I added a second ounce and later third 0.01 lots That’s how I reached 49 CHF—which I view as fuel for the next stage before I potentially blow the account. Unfortunately, at 14:30 (European time), the risk didn't pay off; during the NFP data release, my balance dropped to 12 CHF instead of me closing out profitable short positions at 14:29 with a 95 CHF balance. Still, every cloud has a silver lining: I recovered the loss and pushed on, reaching around 140 CHF by the afternoon. I then made one final trade for the day, with the potential to grow the account by another \~100%—all while taking much less risk. Had I held the position overnight, the potential gain was around 800 CHF, but I dislike holding positions through the market close, so I finished with 340 CHF. It was my second-best daily result; a month ago, I turned 6 CHF into 600 CHF in a single day. I’m not advocating for such aggressive speculation, but for me, it proves that nothing is impossible and the end only comes when you give up. You might give up mentally after losing half your account and then lose the rest, or you might refuse to quit after losing 90% and still turn the day around into a profit—it all depends on how you handle the situation.

> down 8k hes down 40k Edit: it lost everything in 7 seconds
How? did it bet against the NFP with 10 lots or something?

Trading with this level of leverage, I concluded that the potential is so vast (and the risk even greater) that there is no point in trying to build the account gradually; there are simply too many factors that could lead to wiping out the account. The saying "starting from nothing, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain" fits the situation well. Thursday, July 2, 2026 I started the morning with 7 CHF and ended the day with a balance of 340 CHF, having withdrawn the majority of the profits. I am not advocating for this style of speculation; I simply want to share my results and reflections. Starting with 7 CHF, I opened a short position on one ounce of gold, and then—once the position moved into profit—I added a second ounce. That’s how I reached 49 CHF—which I view as fuel for the next stage before I potentially blow the account. Unfortunately, at 14:30 (European time), the risk didn't pay off; during the NFP data release, my balance dropped to 12 CHF instead of me closing out profitable short positions at 14:29 with a 95 CHF balance. Still, every cloud has a silver lining: I recovered the loss and pushed on, reaching around 140 CHF by the afternoon. I then made one final trade for the day, with the potential to grow the account by another \~100%—all while taking much less risk. Had I held the position overnight, the potential gain was around 800 CHF, but I dislike holding positions through the market close, so I finished with 340 CHF. It was my second-best daily result; a month ago, I turned 6 CHF into 600 CHF in a single day. I’m not advocating for such aggressive speculation, but for me, it proves that nothing is impossible and the end only comes when you give up. You might give up mentally after losing half your account and then lose the rest, or you might refuse to quit after losing 90% and still turn the day around into a profit—it all depends on how you handle the situation.

From 4170 to 4185 booked partials before NFP

Same i chickened out midway as with such volatile news it can reverse quickly lol..while i don't usually trade news but this NFP release was so bad for DXY and gold explodes up like 20$ in the first 1 secs of the candle..and my FOMO couldn't resist..

NFP was wild

Anyone with an alert on their platforms that alerts them to early close & NFP ?
I didn't expect an American only holiday to effect gold. This is terrible.
I can't believe my trades now all depend on trump not spreading fake news or the war ending on the weekend!
Unable to set stop loss even.

Been trading intraday for a long time. It might work out once or twice but I guarantee you, unless you’re a swing trader NFP will occasionally gap below your stop and cause you to lose 3R, 4R+ etc even if you set to break even. It’s a dumb game to play but to each their own. I understand everyone needs to learn their mistakes themselves

Clean catch on gold. NFP on the 1m is chaos but when the setup is there it's there

Had a few u/C longs go against me yesterday after the NFP data but stuck with some positions and bought at lower handles. Just got rid of it all when it hit 1.42 earlier this morning. Pair pretty much ranged this week so I was taking pullbacks and quick TP's until some sort of direction is established again.

I purchased multiple FundedNext challenge accounts because I expected a professional trading environment and reliable execution.

During the NFP news event on 2 July 2026, I experienced a series of highly unusual issues on my XAUUSD demo account.

My order remained in "Started" status for approximately 54 seconds before it was executed.
The platform executed 0.50 lots instead of the 2.50 lots I submitted.
Later, an unexpected 2.50-lot order appeared during the same period of platform instability.
I also observed a significant price gap on FundedNext that I could not reproduce on the other trading platforms I compared.

I fully understand that major news events can cause volatility and slippage. That is not my complaint.

My complaint is that FundedNext repeatedly avoided answering my technical questions. I asked several times for:

An explanation for the 54-second delay.
An explanation for the incorrect lot execution.
An explanation for the price gap.
The tick-by-tick market data.
The server execution logs.

Instead, I repeatedly received the same generic response stating that "no issue was found" and that the trade was executed at the next available market price. None of my specific technical questions were answered, and the requested technical evidence was never provided.

After several conversations with support and the Platform Operations Team, my case was simply closed without addressing the core issues I raised.

I am not writing this review because of a losing trade. I am writing it because I expected transparency and a proper technical investigation. Unfortunately, I did not receive either.

I hope FundedNext improves its support process by providing clear technical explanations when customers raise legitimate execution concerns, rather than closing cases with generic responses.

The latency worry that keeps coming up here is fair, but I think it comes down to what you're using the AI for.
If it's to hit obvious scheduled data ASAP, NFP, a rate decision, the earnings number, then don't bother. You're racing machines to a figure that's already on a hundred screens, and that's a speed race you won't win. That's usually the version people have in mind when they say AI trading can't work.
The more interesting use is the opposite: seeing the landscape shift before others and catching the non-obvious stuff. What actually moves your position often isn't even tagged to your ticker, it's a supplier, a competitor, a regulator, a foreign-language source nobody's watching. There the edge isn't microsecond speed, it's breadth (seeing more than everyone) and understanding (working out what it means and whether to act) ahead of the crowd. The real clock is headline to understood to acted-on, not headline to seen. So before "which model or strategy," worth deciding which of those you're actually playing.

Made some serious money on $SLV yesterday after NFP announcement