LINKUSDT
Chainlink / Tether USD
crypto Composite

The top comment asks what happens if it dumps now. Worth knowing what the base rates say, and also what they do not say.

I pulled every daily candle across 8 majors (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, ADA, LINK) that closed +15% or more. 253 instances. The day after: 57.9% closed red, 30.3% worse than -5%. But the mean next-day return was +0.92% against a +0.21% baseline, and the median was -1.51%. Barbell, not a drift. About one in seven ripped another 10%+ and carried the average by itself.

Then I tried to get more specific, because that is exactly the setup we are in now: the pump day was followed by a green day. Across the same sample, the second day after that pattern was green only 41.1% of the time (n=107). Nine points below baseline. That looked like a real edge.

So I split the history in half and ran each half separately. First half 38.6%, second half 52.6%. The effect reversed. Sample sizes in the second half are small, but a result that flips sign when you cut the data is not a result, it is a coincidence with good marketing.

So I do not have a call for today, and that is the honest answer. What I do have is a note about the first number: after a vertical day, red is the modal outcome, but the tail that pays is fat enough to make the average positive. Anyone quoting only one of those two numbers at you is selling something.

Method: daily candles, Binance spot, close vs open on the same candle for the pump day, close to close after.

I appreciate your willingness to discuss it civilly and know you did not name call anyone.
Everyone knows the "value" accrual hasn't been there. My issue with detractors is that they act like they've been rugged, when LINK publicly announced the schedule for selling supply to fund the project.
It's no different from AMZN being founded in 1994, going public in 1997, and not becoming profitable until 2003, nearly 10 years after being founded. Are investors mad at AMZN?
Any AI search can tell folks that, but it's easier to parrot a "rug pull" narrative.
How else are they going to pay a staff of engineers, business leaders, etc. to work on this project for 10+ years?
Would folks rather they accept a ton of VC money like Solana and others? IMO, the fact that they are selling the token to fund the growth of the project is compelling.
**The 2017 ICO:** Chainlink officially raised $32 million in September 2017 **by selling LINK tokens directly to both retail and institutional participants.**
Historical Supply Dynamics & Releases (easily researched):
* **Initial Allocation (2017):** The initial 1 billion LINK supply was divided into a 35% token sale (private and public), 35% for node operators/ecosystem incentives, and 30% for the parent company/reserve.
* **Economics 2.0 Shift (2022):** The Foundation pledged transparent periodic movements of non-circulating supply (such as capping early targeted releases to 50 million LINK) to support initiatives like staking.
* **Quarterly Unlocks:** On-chain analytics routinely track predictable multi-million LINK movements from non-circulating Foundation/Team addresses (often releasing 10M to 20M tokens quarterly) into operational or exchange-labeled wallets.
* **Current Circulating Supply:** Out of the 1 billion hard cap, approximately 748 million LINK (\~75%) are in active circulation, while the remaining balance resides across designated non-circulating or staking contract vaults

agree to disagree. This post has 0 upvotes, all the comments are about LINK holders being suckers. Keep in mind this is a single thread and I've been interested in crypto for a while.

Ripple and Chainlink are basically polar opposites. Ripple is a private company with shareholders, and XRP holders are not shareholders in Ripple. The company can sell XRP from its holdings to fund its operations, acquisitions and business activities, while any benefit to XRP holders is indirect. That creates an obvious distinction between the interests of Ripple shareholders and XRP holders.
Chainlink on the other hand, has increasingly been using revenue to acquire LINK for its reserves, directly tying part of the network's economic activity to the token itself.
And as for your 600% XRP trade, congratulations but making money on an asset doesn't prove the underlying project deserved its valuation. XRP's market cap has repeatedly priced in expectations that Ripple or XRP would achieve something extraordinary, yet the actual adoption of XRP as a global bridge asset has never come close to justifying the kind of valuation its community constantly claims is inevitable. You got lucky because you didn’t actually do any research into the company.

Imo, it’s okay to be condescending when people treat you like a moron for doing DD. 
Look- if your goal is to participate in tulip/beanie baby mania and play hot potato to see who wins and who holds a bag - go “invest” in PEPE, Shibainuobamacoin, or whatever the fuck else crops up.
Unfortunately for those who bought LINK at its highest point, they were unfortunately caught in the combo of a low circulating supply and high volume of interest.
In my experience, LINK has been one of the few projects that has pushed through the naysayers, and actually done things for the holders.
1. They announced when LINK circulating supply would be increased (sales to fund expansion)
2. Staking opened up on a priority basis for those who held LINK through price drops.
3. They are the ONLY project I’ve ever seen to buy back the token in regular intervals, using the fees they earn, in addition to the payment abstraction layer.
When people stop treating LINK investors like they’re idiots, maybe we can let up on the condescending tone. 
Satoshi himself once said, “if you don’t get it, I don’t have time to explain it to you.”

LINK's problem is there's no link between the profits the company makes and the token price, so even if the company makes a ton of money it doesn't follow that the token price will increase. That's true of a lot of crypto tokens unfortunately.
Having said that, it's up 22.4% and 32.5% in the last 7 and 14 days respectively, which is about the same as HYPE and more than you would have made with most stocks in that time. Although it's still down 80% from it's ATH in May 2021 and down 57% since August 2025, whilst HYPE is up 73% in a year. I don't know if HYPE's price is based on profits being made by the company though, or just hype.

Since the top comment is asking whether this is a bull trap, here's what the base rates actually say. I pulled every day across 8 majors (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, ADA, LINK) where the coin closed up 15% or more on the day. 253 instances. Then I looked at the following day.

57.9% of those next days closed red. 30.3% closed more than 5% down. 13.8% closed more than 10% down.

But the average next-day return is +0.92%, comfortably above the +0.21% baseline for a random day.

Both of those are true at once, and that is the whole point. The median next day is -1.51% while the mean is positive, because 14.6% of the time the thing rips another 10%+ and drags the average up by itself. The distribution is barbell shaped, not centered.

So "is it a bull trap" is the wrong shape of question. Most days after a big pump are red, and the ones that aren't are occasionally enormous. If you size for the average you get run over by the median. If you size for the median you miss the tail that pays.

Method: daily candles, Binance spot, up day measured close vs open on the same candle. Happy to be told this breaks somewhere I didn't test.

1. Payment abstraction layer converts payment into LINK- [https://chain.link/blog/payment-abstraction-svr-fee-conversion](https://chain.link/blog/payment-abstraction-svr-fee-conversion)
2. Link is using fees to buy back a strategic reserve of LINK: [https://metrics.chain.link/reserve](https://metrics.chain.link/reserve)
The DTCC themselves announced working with LINK and the major banks: [https://www.dtcc.com/news/2026/july/15/dtcc-turns-tokenization-into-reality](https://www.dtcc.com/news/2026/july/15/dtcc-turns-tokenization-into-reality)

Ever hear of Robinhood the trading platform? They use LINK: [https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/robinhood](https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/robinhood)

Ever heard of Ondo finance, one of the leading institutional tokenization companies? They use LINK: [https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/ondo-finance](https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/ondo-finance)

Ever heard of Kalshi, the prediction market - they use LINK: [https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/kalshi](https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/kalshi)
Ever heard of Kraken, one of the first cryptocurrency markets to tokenize stocks with xstocks? They migrated to CCIP after trying to use a legacy provider:
[https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/kraken](https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/kraken)
Did you know that xstocks is partnered with NASDAQ and uses LINK?
[https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/xstocks](https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/xstocks)
[https://blog.kraken.com/news/payward-partners-with-nasdaq](https://blog.kraken.com/news/payward-partners-with-nasdaq)
What about Coinbase, have you ever heard of them? they use LINK:
[https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/coinbase-cloud](https://www.chainlinkecosystem.com/ecosystem/coinbase-cloud)
Look, everyone following LINK could be completely wrong. I get that. But of all the fucking evidence/news developments associated with LINK, imo, you could not possibly place another "bet" on a crypto in the entire market.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But there's not a better bet in the market than LINK right now and I'll stand by that even if it doesn't take off.

Let me say it louder for those in the back:
How many of your choice cryptos are actively buying back their tokens as a reserve vs. dumping them all on retail?
[https://metrics.chain.link/reserve](https://metrics.chain.link/reserve)
How many of your choice cryptos have built payment abstraction layers that convert fees paid into the native token? [https://chain.link/blog/payment-abstraction-svr-fee-conversion](https://chain.link/blog/payment-abstraction-svr-fee-conversion)
How many of your choice cryptos have had their staking pool completely filled since the 1st day they launched the pool?
FYI: LINK staking has been at 100% capacity for the 2+ years they've launched. Any open spots get snapped up.

Comparing Sergey Nazarov to Justin Sun is pretty fucking stupid. Sergey is out there speaking at swifts SIBOS every year and working with institutions like DTCC on real financial infrastructure, while you’re dismissing everything based on “vibes” lol You don’t have to buy LINK, but at least make an argument based on something other than feelings.

LINK has potential

In the 24 hours since your comment, LINK has overtaken Monero

Finally some movement with LINK

Love all these downvotes on LINK when it's on a tear.

What is the utility of the LINK token? Buyback ? Revenue ?

And LINK. People keep hating on it, but it's utility grows and grows. DTCC, SWIFT. just wait...