FX Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

I model ASX gold developers, and AUE keeps coming out as the cheapest-ranked study on the board. I lurk a lot, so I thought I'd throw a name in that I don't see mentioned often.
**What it is**
Boundiali gold project (3.22Moz), northern Côte d'Ivoire, 88% owned, same greenstone belt as Perseus' Sissingué and Resolute's Syama, plus the 1.16Moz Napié project down the road. Run by Dr Caigen Wang (The Wang), who founded Tietto Minerals in 2010 and took Abujar (also Côte d'Ivoire) from IPO in Jan 2018 to first gold in Jan 2023, then sold the company to Zhaojin in 2024. Mark Strizek (exec director) was on that build too. Same team, same country, next project.
**Yesterdays announcement**
Project-best hole at BST1: 28.8m @ 22.92 g/t from 204m, including 17.95m @ 36.57 g/t (BSDD0152). Same batch: 57m @ 2.87 g/t and 22m @ 4.70 g/t with 2m @ 45.86 g/t inside it. That's inside a 1 g/t open-pit resource. The drilling program just got expanded to 150,000m for the year.
**The rig fleet**
Aurum owns 16 diamond drill rigs outright. They drilled 151,450m in FY26 with their own gear, which is why a A$266m company can afford a 150,000m program and still bank A$95m. Tietto did the same thing. Owned rigs is how you grow a resource at a fraction of contractor rates, and it's why the ounces keep coming.
**Who's in on it**
* Perseus Mining (PRU) cornerstoned the March placement and is now \~10% (9.9% then, took its share in September). A neighbour and a multi-billion producer sitting at 10% of you is not nothing, and they are running out of their own ore...
* Zhaojin Capital \~7%. The people who bought Tietto.
* Board and management \~9.5%. The Wang personally put in $840k at 60c in March (1.4m shares, shareholder-approved, settled June) and holds 4%. He also bought in the 2024 placements!
**PFS**
* 1.21Moz probable reserve (maiden, June 2026)
* 1.52Moz produced over 11 years, 923koz in the first five (\~185kozpa)
* AISC US$1,951/oz
* Capex US$342m (AACE Class 4, includes US$34m contingency), \~A$480m
* Post-tax NPV5 US$1.49B (\~A$2.15B) at US$4,076 gold, IRR 119%
* DFS due late CY2026, FID targeted Dec 2026, first gold H1 2028
**Numbers**
* 511m shares x A$0.52 = \~A$266m market cap
* Cash >A$95m after the Sep 23 placement (95m shares at 55c, A$52.5m firm)
* EV \~A$170m
* EV / post-tax NPV at spot gold (A$6,050): \~0.07x
* Median across ranked ASX gold developer studies: 0.17x. AUE is under half that.
* EV per resource ounce: \~A$40
**What I think it's worth (fully diluted, today's numbers)**
I don't value it on today's 511m shares, because the build raise hasn't happened yet. The model dilutes first, then values.
1. the NPV at today's gold. Spot A$6,055 blended 65/35 with a A$6,250 long-run (median of four published forecasts) = A$6,123/oz, about US$4,350 at the study's 0.71 FX. Read off the PFS post-tax NPV5 sensitivity curve, not the headline: A$2,422m
2. \*what's actually Aurum's. Reserve ounces weighted by tenement ownership (BDT1/BDT2/BMT3 at 85%, BST at 90%): 85.6% attributable
3. a construction-stage multiple. Developers with a dated FID trade at 0.7-1.0x NAV. FID is dated (20 Dec 2026) but permits and financing aren't done, so the bottom of the band: 0.7x P/NAV
4. cash.\* A$95m after the September placement settled on the 30th, no debt.
5. the dilution. Capex \~A$480m still to fund, 50% equity, +20% overrun allowance, less the cash on hand beyond a six-quarter working-capital reserve, means a \~A$230m raise around FID at a 12.5% discount to a flat 52c. That plus a rights leg (the raise is over the 25% placement cap) and in-the-money options takes the register from 511m to \~1,110m shares.
**My Base Target**
(A$2,422m x 85.6% x 0.7 + A$95m) / 1,110m shares = $1.39 per share
That's the base case at 52c today. On spot alone, no long-run blend, it's A$1.36. At the PFS deck of US$4,076 it's A$1.22.
What breaks it: a 40c FID raise instead of \~45c adds another \~70m shares and takes \~8c off the base. Permits not granted and no FID at all, and P/NAV goes back to a study multiple and you're at 70-80c.
**Why it's cheap**
1. The build is \~1.8x the market cap. US$342m capex on a A$266m company. Debt will carry some, but the model has \~A$230m of equity needed around FID. That's the whole story of the discount.
2. It's Côte d'Ivoire, and no one even knows where that is... Jurisdiction discount is real. The mining exploitation permits are still outstanding (environmental approval came in May).
[This is the place](https://preview.redd.it/voku7h9tyush1.png?width=1761&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d9daebd578b4cd6d3393f198c8fb9f8a0cb39a5)
1. Price action has been dogshit. -27% over 12 months while the ASX gold index did +16%. Gold beta is 1.2 so gold did +3% for it and the sector +14%. The company's own contribution was -30%. It has raised twice into that (March at 60c, Sep at 55c).
**Why it might not stay cheap**
* PFS to reserve in one go, DFS in a few months, FID by Christmas. Catalysts stacked, and A$95m funds the DFS, the 150,000m program and early works without another raise before FID.
* Today's hole says the high-grade is there under the pit shells. 16 owned rigs means they will find more of it cheaply before the DFS closes.
* 119% IRR at US$4,076 with spot higher. The NPV restated at today's gold is \~A$2.4B.
* Two strategic holders who build and buy mines in this exact belt, at \~10% and 7%, plus the MD buying at 60c. If FID financing comes with a Perseus or Zhaojin cheque attached, the equity gap closes without a 40c placement.
* The reserve and the raise discounts (tight, basically at market) both argue for a higher value than peers. The only factor that explains it is capex against market cap.
* Management has done exactly this before, in the same country, and got taken out for it.
**TL;DR**
Cheapest ranked gold developer study on the ASX on EV/NPV, for one reason: it needs to raise most of its market cap to build. Base case A$1.39 fully diluted after a \~A$230m FID raise, bull A$2.75 if someone else writes that cheque. At 52c the market is pricing the raise at a price that doesn't exist yet. If you think The Wang's team, 16 owned rigs and a register with Perseus and Zhaojin on it can finance Boundiali like they financed Abujar, this is the cheap end of a 2027-28 producer that i think gets bought out before they produce a thing.
40% of my portfolio and increasing.

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