BTCUSDT20241018C65500
Bitcoin / Tether USD Oct 18 2024 65500.00 Call
crypto

Does anyone else agree that the folks panicking about BTC are mostly people who bought as a gamble? they put it on red it came up black and now they want to burn the casino to the ground.
They dont understand the asset, they dont understand math and economics, they don't understand basic investing diversification and risk tolerance.
ALL Investments carry various levels of risk and volatility. Upside, downside, global impact, etc
so these children who are panicking are simply creating a massive discount for instos, whales, and the rest of us.
( remember 1995 when gold was $300?)

Sure could be. My post was meant as an example that one market can rise (bull) while the other falls (bear) sometimes because of each other. Not necessarily stocks <-> BTC.
But for that specific case I think it depends. If stocks fall because of a nuked straight of Hormuz, yeah BTC will fall too probably. If the AI bull market reaches a certain top many traders will go back into BTC and other assets though. When traders are after big gains, a asset below the 200 WMA is much much more attractive than AI stocks that just crashed 20%. Esp when momentum on each side changes.

If you don’t have enough cash flow to be able to sit on those BTC payments, that’s understandable. But if you believe in BTC and set up a reserve of it, especially in bear markets like we are experiencing now, there could be big gains to be had while supporting the growth of Bitcoin at the same time.

You could transfer to Coinbase, use their credit card, and pay off the balance in BTC. Might be easier.

Quick version up front: prediction markets are 1x basically everywhere (Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid all included), so the leverage doesn't come from the prediction market itself - it comes from a margin layer on top. PredMart is the one built for this, up to 5x in one click. Below is the full picture of how it works and where to actually do it. Happy to be corrected on any of it.
# What "leverage on a prediction market" even means
A prediction market outcome trades as a share between $0 and $1 that moves with the probability - a contract at $0.60 means roughly a 60% chance, settles at $1 if it happens, $0 if it doesn't.
Leverage means controlling a bigger position than your cash allows - put up a fraction, borrow the rest, gains and losses run on the full amount. At 5x a 20% move in the contract is roughly a 100% move on your money, both ways. Push too far the wrong way and you get liquidated, position closed automatically to repay the loan.
Why it matters here: these markets reward conviction. If you've done the work and think a contract is mispriced, capturing that edge with unleveraged cash ties up a lot of money for a thin return. Leverage lets you size the read up without depositing more.
# Why prediction markets are 1x everywhere
This is the part most coverage gets wrong. None of the major venues offer native leverage on event outcomes. Polymarket is 1x on its event contracts. Kalshi is 1x. Hyperliquid's outcome markets are 1x and fully collateralized by design. Put in $1,000, control $1,000 of shares, everywhere.
Some platforms launched leverage products, but don't conflate them. Polymarket's perps, for example, are leverage on prices (BTC, NVDA, gold), not on the binary event outcomes. They leverage a price, not an outcome. So if your edge is in event prediction, perps don't help.
That leaves a consistent gap across the whole category: the people with the strongest researched views are capped at the same 1x as everyone else, on exactly the trades where their edge is sharpest.
# How the leverage actually works
Since it isn't built into the contracts, it comes from a margin layer on top.
You post collateral (stablecoins or shares), a protocol lends against it so you've got buying power bigger than your deposit, and you open a position on the outcome you've got a read on. A loan-to-value ratio caps the borrow, a liquidation threshold marks where you get force-closed. Stay above it and the position lives.
By hand that's a multi-step loan-and-route mess. The streamlined version is one-click - enter an amount, drag a slider, position opens, with the borrowing and liquidation logic handled in the background.
# Where you actually do it
Honest answer: leverage on event outcomes is a newer, narrower category than the prediction markets themselves.
The prediction markets are the venues where events trade (Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid). The leverage comes from a margin layer applied on top of one of them. Right now that means using a layer like PredMart on top of Polymarket, which is the largest and most liquid venue - and depth matters, because leverage needs liquidity to actually work.
# Strategies that fit
Leverage isn't a strategy, it's an amplifier on one.
Sizing up a high-conviction mispricing - turns a small researched edge into something worth acting on.
Capital efficiency on slow markets - hold a months-out thesis without freezing your whole bankroll in it.
Event-driven plays - size up ahead of a catalyst, exit on the reprice. Riskiest one, the same catalyst can gap against you.
Across all of them it's an active-trader thing, not a passive-holder thing.
# The risks, which are real
Liquidation - a sharp move can wipe your collateral and close you before the event even resolves.
Gaps - event prices move hard on a single headline, and a maxed position dies on one piece of news.
Carry - borrowing accrues interest the whole time, and contracts settle to $1 or $0 so a bad resolution zeroes a leveraged position. Plus smart-contract risk.
Defenses: use less than max leverage, leave a buffer, and only use audited non-custodial protocols.
# Bottom line
Prediction markets are 1x almost everywhere, so leverage on outcomes comes from a margin layer on top. That's the whole category in one sentence. PredMart is the one built for it - non-custodial, audited, up to 5x in one click, currently on Polymarket. Whatever you use, check the audit, the custody model, and how it liquidates before you put real money behind it.

Exactly - what turned those companies around? They came up with new products and brought in actual revenue, billions and billions of new money.
What is the catalyst for BTC? The new investor pool is drying up, unless Trump decides to hoard it with taxpayer money it's hard to imagine a new FOMO wave to lift it back up.

Places that except BTC immediately convert it into cash. They aren't sitting on a huge amount of something volatile if they need cash flow to sustain their buisness.
Some may keep some exposure if they choose to, but typically its just converted straight to cash.

Enjoy sending BTC to people from cold storage to use a daily payments. lol

In contrary to what? Can you name an investment with lower asset concentration, considering owning BTC doesn't give you any voting rights?

You do realize in the comment you just posted, “This removes the SEC’s regulatory gray zone.”
This is **pure AI slop and it’s obvious you don’t understand your own comment**
That SEC regulatory gray zone isn’t some bad thing - it prevented people from selling crypto **as an unlicensed security** eg defrauding investors.
This used to be illegal and a no no.
Trump is trying to make it legal with the minimum amount of regulations that he can use to seek compliance.
Please explain why this is good for crypto or bullish for BTC?

Ah that sounds great. Question though, if you transfer BTC from one to another and you don’t cash out you don’t have to declare taxes in Europe or am I wrong?

Then we’re all just dreamers and there’s no real value to BTC. 
But I disagree with you. 

People are selling BTC ETFs when fear is at 20, oof

Hey everyone,
In this week's report, we are diving deep into high-impact macro releases (US NFP & PMI, Eurozone CPI, China PMI) and breaking down how they interact with key daily/weekly order blocks on Gold ($XAUUSD), DXY, and Bitcoin ($BTC).
Check out the full integrated multi-timeframe analysis here: \[ https://open.substack.com/pub/rahsade/p/weekly-macro-outlook-key-economic?r=6dimi7&utm\_campaign=post&utm\_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true \]
Feedback and macro biases for the week ahead are highly welcome in the comments!

There’s going to be more Bull Run soon! … a downwards Bull Run to $20k BTC.

That really isn't a thing. Nobody in their right mind let's you pay for a coffee with BTC 😬

It's a fake token airdropped to thousands of addresses at once, the name spoofed to look like BTC (or it's just a worthless token someone minted for free). The token itself is bait. It can't do anything sitting in your wallet.
The actual scam is the next step they're counting on: you try to sell or "claim" it, the only place it's listed is the scammer's own site, and that site asks you to connect your wallet and approve a spend or sign a message. That approval is the drain, not the airdrop.
So don't interact with it. Don't swap it, don't "claim" it, don't visit any URL hidden in the token's name or description. Just hide it. It's only dangerous if you touch it.

Many people were thinking of start buying BTC at 50k. A 60% drop from ATH will take us to 50,483.
It would be epic if the bottom is 50,483

This is a fairly accurate assessment of what’s going on. My involvement in cryptocurrency began officially in the fall of 2016. I bought my first BTC in my wallet. Back then if you shared the coinbase wallet you would give someone .01 of BTC. There are a lot of wallets out there that still have that.01 BTC in it and every so often I’d get a message from someone I shared that with, thanking me! That .01 is now over $600.00
We have gone to a whole new level and the acceptance is nothing like it was back then and I watched BTC go from $400 to $10,000 and all the while saying to myself this can’t be real. I watched my account grow from 10k to 95k in a matter of months. And then I watched it fall back almost 90%
Volatility is what drives this market. Sadly Capitulation is an important part of the crypto ecosystem.
We really haven’t seen it like we have in the past two big pull backs. Going from $15k back to $2k or the $64k to $16k
I don’t think we will this time. JMO! I think BTC will test 53k maybe even touch 47k who knows!, it still won’t see what some of us saw in March of 2017 into 2018 and Again in into March of 2020. Who else was brave enough to buy that dip to $3000 for BTC ? And then watch it explode from there to $64k in April 2021 and then retrace 55% to $29k? I’ll bet very few here bought at $30k ride it back to $60k and then all the way down to $16k Nov 2022 do you see the pattern ? Then all the way from there to $124k October 2025 almost a 3yr rally ! And here we are June of 2026 sitting on $59k wondering will it test $30k or will support be $53k
Most will never buy a full coin again but you’ll have a chance to buy .1 BTC and pay between $5k and $6k ! Or will you watch it again and say it’s never going to see $125k again ???
We are on the brink of a new era! The currency shift will happen and July 4th this year celebrating 250 years could make for an interesting time to make that shift. How important is the clarity act? How important is the blockchain and the tokenization of wall-street? What alt coin is going to rally 40x is unknown. But BTC will move forward with more money on the sidelines than we have ever seen before. I have a personal friend who is sitting on 3000 BTC and has never sold a single coin.
Why some would ask, because he’s his own bank !
If you own just one Bitcoin you are your own bank. That is the goal and I own a few myself. Not as much as my friend but I didn’t stand by watching. I hope those of you who are watching will make your move. It’s about to get toasty!

**This market is shaking out weak hands and I think that’s actually fine here’s my honest take (June 2026)**
I’ve been sitting on my hands a lot this month watching people panic, and I figured I’d share what I’m actually thinking right now rather than just lurking.
**The numbers first so we’re all on the same page**
BTC is sitting at roughly $58,980 this morning down over $2,000 from yesterday alone. RSI is at 32, Fear & Greed is at 13, which is deep Extreme Fear territory, and we’re sitting below all major daily moving averages. Not a fun chart to look at.
But here’s the thing I’ve seen enough cycles to know that ugly charts don’t always mean what people think they mean.
**What’s actually causing this**
It’s not one thing, it’s a pile on.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs just saw a $692 million single-day outflow on June 25 the largest since late May and analysts are noting that annual growth in ETF holdings has basically stalled to zero, meaning the funds are now adding to sell-side pressure rather than absorbing it.
On top of that, Bitcoin futures open interest is down nearly 19% over the last 30 days, which tells you this is deleveraging, not fresh selling longs are closing out, not bears piling in.
And macro isn’t helping. Markets are now pricing in around 50/50 odds of a Fed rate hike later in 2026 a massive shift from the rate cut expectations we started the year with. Risk assets across the board don’t like that, and crypto feels it harder than most.
**The part people are sleeping on**
Strategy’s executive publicly stated today that their 843,738 BTC treasury is essentially untouchable no margin calls, no forced sales, long-dated convertible debt with no price covenants. That’s the largest corporate BTC holder in the world basically saying “we’re not selling.” That matters for the supply picture.
The disconnect right now is between retail bullishness and institutional selling social sentiment was actually at peak bullishness in late May, but ETF outflows kept coming anyway. The market doesn’t care about vibes, it follows flows.
**What I’m doing personally**
I’m not trying to catch the bottom. I’m not using leverage full stop. The $58,700 level is the key support to watch. If that breaks cleanly, the picture changes materially. Until then, I’m buying a little spot on the worst red days, keeping most powder dry, and ignoring altcoins entirely.
BTC dominance is at 58% and the altcoin season index is only 46 we’re firmly in Bitcoin season, which means chasing alts here is a trap for most people.
**My honest read**
Extreme Fear after a slow bleed is a different beast than Extreme Fear after a violent crash. The former tends to drag on longer. We haven’t had a proper capitulation flush the market has just been slowly bleeding. That’s the thing that keeps me from going all in.
But I also know this: every cycle has a point where it looks like it’ll never recover. This feels like that point. Whether it actually is nobody knows. Manage your risk accordingly.
Not financial advice, just thinking out loud. What’s everyone else’s read on where we go from here?