BTCUSDT20240814C60500
Bitcoin / Tether USD Aug 14 2024 60500.00 Call
crypto

I’m all in once he mentions he buys BTC with AI

I have $100K I could invest into BTC right now, but I'm not doing that, because my basis is $42,000 on my 10% of 1 BTC and my rule of thumb is NEVER buy green, only buy red. So, I gotta be patient and HOPE it goes that low (or lower). Other will be screaming and freaking out... I'll be jumping up and down, squealing like a little school girl! COME ON DOWN, BTC!!!

I don't think so. I think alts and all projects around are like the workers of the economy. And if bitcoin was alone it would never be proved like this, the reason btc is at this value is because of all noise around but no sane person would value it to what's it is today if it were alone. It could absolutely have a asset status as gold but not at this prices. No sane person would buy BTC in front of gold if the price wasn't this hyped.

Eth has underperformed BTC on average its entire lifecycle… stick to the king

If they forced to sell, oof, it is going to be worse than anything we have seen so far, back to 1k for BTC it is then.

Dump all alts (including ETH) and full port BTC. There is no second best, and the rest are called ALT coins for a reason.

Daily volume, mostly and the fact that even daily sells of 80,000 BTC didn't move the price by much.
Why do you think it would be otherwise?

That sounds like a horrible decision all around considering that BTC could easily hit 42k without breaking any historical outliers in terms of bottoming events during bear markets. Not saying we will but capping your upside when we are still above the 200 WMA with ETFs selling like there's no tomorrow sounds risky. I bought a small MSTR position myself and consider it a regarded gamble, would buy more st 70-80 but yeah.. this sounds weird af

GDC currently owns 7501 BTC as of their last earnings report. Considering that with the current stocks issued, GDC is severely undervalued. Considering all the warrants and the potential merger happening, the GDC may profit even higher than ADTX. It’s going to be huge.

Bro I have heard so many specialists trying to predict future. Not one was correct. The 4 year cycle is total bs and can be challenged by a highschool student that has taken a statistics class. If you’ve been on the market for many years this realisation should have happened, especially with the orange man tweeting nonesense and manipulating the markets. BTC is all based on hype, nothing more and nothing less. At the moment AI is the latest hype and it’s actually solving problems, so don’t expect things to change anytime soon.

whatever happens at least OP can rest well knowing they are not the guy who paid 10,000 BTC for 2 papa johns pizzas

Buying litecoin is crazy. Bitcoin has outperformed it at almost every point since 2019 if you are gonna gamble might as well by a memecoin and if not at least buy BTC if you want to be in crypto

what where the assets ? Including BTC is survivorship bias already, did you include NVidia ?

STRC has paid out $10.44 of dividends since its IPO last July. It is trading $12.69 under par. Wasn't this pitched to retail investors as an alternative to a money market account.
\- [https://x.com/saylor/status/2037270676529160436](https://x.com/saylor/status/2037270676529160436)
\- [https://www.strategy.com/strc/dividends](https://www.strategy.com/strc/dividends)
Last time I checked, any money parked in a Money Market account would have actually returned 3.25-3.75% since last July, meanwhile STRC investors are paradoxically down 2.5% on a product pitched to them to have "higher yields" than a money market account.
Did you know that 80% of the shares are owned by retail investors?
[https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/crypto-retail-investors-dominate-80-115303584.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/crypto-retail-investors-dominate-80-115303584.html)
How long are people expected to hold their money in an quasi money market account that has so far produced a negative return, with no clear ability to stop or turn around the continued de-pegging besides "wait for btc to go back up"?
Is saylor going to raise rates to yield to get back to $100? Currently that would be 145 bps raise.
*($11.50/$88.79)=12.95%*
*Dividend Payment/Market Price = Effective Yield*
*12.95%-11.5%= 1.45% raise needed to bring stated yield inline with effective yield*
And what happens when the market sees that as weakness? Price Drops again, and now what, you are going to raise yield again to bring it back to par? And the cycle repeats. Now you are accelerating your cash burn, which currently MSTR only has 10 months of cash burn from these dividend payments before they need to raise additional cash. Remind you, MSTR essentially has 0 cash flow.
Will this be done in the form of a stock offering/debt to equity offering of MSTR? well if MSTR price hasn't rebounded in 10 months, this would represent a coin per share dillution event where MSTR holders are facing either additional debt on the books or equity dilution.
Maybe Saylor will make an even more convoluted financial product to raise a additional capital from retail schmucks to kick the can a few more months down the road and pray BTC starts pumping again.
Idk it just seems like this entire thing is a financial monstrosity. Greed and stupidity wrapped up to seem like a smart investment thesis. And of course Retail will be the ones holding the bag at the end like always.

That is a very good point ! And now governments have BTC ! When is it going up ???

Before anything fancy, I pressure-tested the boring baselines over a real multi-regime window — and I’m posting the failures, not just the wins.
Rules (one fixed rule each, nothing fit to the data):
• Trend: long while price > 200-day SMA, else cash.
• Momentum: long while trailing 6-month return > 0, else cash.
• Mean-reversion: long when price < lower 20-day Bollinger band, else flat.
All act on the next day’s close (no lookahead).
Data: Yahoo daily adjusted, \\\~20 years (equities since 2005, BTC since 2014) — spans 2008, 2020, 2022. Fees: equities 0.03%/side, crypto 0.40%/side, charged only on trade days. Block-bootstrap Monte Carlo (2,000 paths) for path-luck bands.
What held up:
• The trend filter roughly halved max drawdown on every equity/crypto market over 20 years (SPY −21% vs −55% B&H, QQQ −27% vs −53%, BTC −71% vs −83%) — at the cost of lagging raw return. Classic risk reduction, across real crashes.
• The one return-and-risk win: trend on NVDA, +100,038% vs +84,447% buy & hold, −54% vs −85% drawdown. (Single-name survivorship — flagged.)
Where it failed (shown, not hidden):
• Long Treasuries (TLT): the overlay barely cut drawdown and missed the bull (+2% vs +85%).
• Mean-reversion got run over on gold and lost −66% on BTC.
• Momentum lagged badly on small caps.
Caveats I know (tell me the ones I don’t): hand-picked liquid survivors (selection bias), daily-close fills + flat per-side cost (no intraday slippage), no parameter optimization, and 20yr is still short for strong claims.
What I’m asking:
1. For long/flat systems, your preferred risk-adjusted metric when cash days deflate vol — Sortino, Calmar, exposure-adjusted?
2. Reasonable crypto cost model — flat taker per switch, or maker/limit fills?
3. What would make you trust a “halves drawdown” claim — rolling windows, regime splits, walk-forward OOS?
4. What can be done about the slippage and fees on Solana and is that even possible to manage if you aren’t a rug factory?

Dami na naman mga influencers na nakaleverage ng long position kay BTC. Yung isang Pinoy na vlogger Sabi pa 5 USD lang naman daw yung risk. So I asked this Pinoy vlogger nagpasok ka ng long position at 63k kahit yung market structure pababa? Care to share yung TA mo for this? Sympre di nagreply. Later on yun nag62k si BTC and yeah he is just averaging down his position. Naku po. Mga gawain ng mga sugarol.

I turned all my alts into BTC or fiat last year. Some of yours may have a pump in 2029, but hard to know before that.

This is why DCA is the way.
Buy BTC at every price point. That’s what I do

If it goes that low and this wasn’t the bottom right now , then doge will go to 6 cents . BTC drops 5% and Doge drops 15%