BTCUSDT20240628P29000
Bitcoin / Tether USD Jun 28 2024 29000.00 Put
crypto

with the Strait of Hormuz closing + Kevin Warsh, i see BTC going back to $100k by EOY

**Perk for EVMavs holders**: an MLB underdog picker that has pretty good results in backtesting (58% win rate) - and lets you place polymarket bets right on the site. Free for Mavs holders. [sportscout.uk](http://sportscout.uk) \- if you're browsing in the right jurisdiction you can even tail the picks on polymarket with a click.
Validated out-of-sample, not on the data it was tuned on: the model was fit only on 2020–2025, leaving 2014–2019 as a fully untouched holdout, \*and that holdout performed even better than the tuning years\* (61% hit rate vs 54%). The recent in-sample years still hold up too: after a modeled execution haircut, \~+20% ROI per bet on 2021–2025, where flat $10 stakes would have turned $100 into \~$2,700.
It's not going to knock it out of the park every week, but it did roughly pace BTC during backtesting:
* June 2014 - $100 would have acquired 0.165915 BTC at the closing price of $602.72 USD. Current value of .166 BTC is $10,612
* June 2014 - You start betting on underdogs based on SportScout picks, $10 per game. Current bankroll is $9,780 (admittedly rosy, no haircut)

BTC short, why I took partials instead of holding for the full target

Is this your best defense? It's not even true. There is a community around the single node repository that very much shapes how everyone else sees BTC.

BTC has it's own value. It is a self managed currency. The first to have ever existed. In finance security means a lot so it is longest in the game and has never been hacked. Free from being altered by the most corruptible thing on this planet. Humans. The only way BTC can be altered is if something like 90% of the nodes agree. Which is doubtful you can get that many people to agree on something and if you can then it's likely the right move. Automatically logs every single transaction in the ledger for anybody to see, traceable. It does everything a bank does and it doesn't have to hire one person.
It hasn't collapsed, this is a bear market and this is the typical doom and gloom.

Could be said much shorter. BTC's value is always measured in another currency, demonstrating that it doesnt hold value on its own. 

I also built M/L system/bot for BTC 5m .. and I can tell you I have never seen a more efficient market. Prices are typically within 1.4% (p95) of actual outcome probability. Which means at any given time, when the spread is 0.01, the edge is likely 1 cent in either direction, usually toward the mid.

If you are thinking of building a XGB/GBM model just for edge, this is too efficient of a market finding those alpha $0.05-0.10 edges, unless the market is moving too fast .. unless you are market making and you already are holding the right position and go hands down as quick as you can.

Still, there are bots who are crushing it, so there are obviously other patterns that work.

How do you explain the BTC charts?

Of course he has to be careful to not borrow too much against his BTC or he's going to be liquidated.
Making a loan to pay another one is the reasonable decision to make when the rate drops or if the first contract sucked for any reason.

The whole idea was that fees would take over the steady decline of mined bitcoins.
However, Satoshi never intended BTC to become a high volatile risky investment. Due to the fiat value increase, miners still would earn enough without high fees. So these fees remain low.
Furthermore, it’s not a 4 years cycle as blocks are mined slightly faster than 10 minutes (hence the increases in mining difficulty). So we won’t have to wait until 2140 to see the last BTC minted.
Final thought: I wonder how many btc will be lost by the time the supplies stops. As of then, it’s a race to not be the last sucker.

Great tips taking two loans to cover the loss made with one 🤣 might work though...or make things worse like having no more BTC and a loan.

100%. The cognitive dissonance is astounding. They claim it's an 'operating company' when it suits them, and a 'BTC ETF' when it suits them—whatever justifies the price. Definitely the most irrational shareholder base I've seen.

How much $ do you invest in BTC every month?

Why? People probably will sell off immediately on the ETFs and BTC to make the profit bc people are scared of making and losing. Idt they'll have the faith to think it'll go back to 120k. Will it eventually? Yeah probably, but not tm. Anyone not checking will probably hodl but they won't bc they're checking bc they're addicted to the gambling.

I am believer that long-term Ethereum will change the financial system. I am very much putting my money where my mouth is on that.
Short-medium term, ETH looks extremely weak. That is a fact. We can talk about the great strides Ethereum has done, but a fact is a fact. ETH is not following.
My thesis is that investors have not priced in longer-term importance of ETH. I believe so much of the crypto space related to stealing, negativity, and scamming that short to medium term will be rough.
The difference between me and so many people invested into ETH is that I realize the short-term risk and believe in the long-term goal. That is why I buy ETH now.
Now is scary. Now is when we don't know if we are at a bottom or 50% from a bottom.
There is only one thing that will make me become skeptical about ETH price action. If ETHBTC can hold .017, which is worst case scenario for me, I will be very optimistic. Yes, .017 is low but we know what happens to ETH if BTC cliff dives. I want ETHBTC to stay above .025. I WANT it badly. That won't change what can easily happen. If BTCUSD breaks 60k again, ETHBTC will probably lower than .023.
Do not take me as a perma-bear. I have receipts in June that show I am a heavy buyer at sub 1700 levels while i was bearish during February. Be skeptical of the people here who always make any narrative like ETH is about to skyrocket.
We will most likely not see any great up moves by ETH this year. Don't ignore negative trends just because you in the asset.

I remember when one YouTuber bought a whole BTC when it was $7000 and I thought he was being reckless.

Why do people say "usb/hard-drive" when mentioning BTC

What is your goal with this money? I understand Warren Buffet was a fan of going all in rather than diversifying but he also hates BTC. Depending on your age and your income, $171K is a lot to have in a single investment which relies on personal protection and no loss cover. I reduced my BTC because it was ranging and made better returns in stocks, I’m not any asset fan boy, I’ll go where the opportunities lie

I think those days are over, BTC price forecasts seem to be trailing S&P500 or just below it. I'd call it a pretty stable investment, although going all in on one thing isn't stable or smart, even if its S&P500.

> If someone can gain unpermitted access to Satoshi's BTC or someone else's wallet in general, crypto is dead.
If someone can access someone else's crypto wallet, then all encryption is dead. Your bank accounts would be accessible. All passwords become obsolete.

Who gives a shit about how it impacts crypto, it will impact every other area of everyone's lives much worse.