BTCUSDT20240530P76000
Bitcoin / Tether USD May 30 2024 76000.00 Put
crypto

I have been saying since February that BTC will be 60k by Christmas and will slowly rise to Christmas 2027 then watch it climb to new all time highs up to Christmas 2028. So hold on BTC will rise again.

Perhaps it has something to do with them removing the NTFS marketplace from W3 wallets. I certainly think that if they don't manage to do this, BTC and a large part of the market will suffer.
The Spanish B2M platform has had MICA for a year now simply for implementing transparency and security processes. I hope Binance doesn't have any problems in that regard.

**Key points:**
* The proposed ETFs would hold U.S. stocks but use dividends to purchase Bitcoin exposure instead of reinvesting into more shares.
* Bitcoin would start at a 5% portfolio allocation and could grow to as much as 20%.
* The filing reflects continued institutional interest in Bitcoin despite recent market weakness.
* The article claims over 10.5 million BTC (more than half the supply) is currently being held at a loss, indicating significant investor stress.

Miners will buy BTC if it drops below the cost to mine it.

Even SpaceX narrative is more convincing than BTC

Is there an argument that BTC bottomed, or is the 364 time line solid?

I did answer it. Whatever your fiat isn't. Example: if your local Fiat is the yen. Then yen collapses, then you could either trade BTC for the things you need or you could trade the BTC for literally any other Fiat and then buy the things you need.

usually the people rotating out of BTC into whatever is trending are trading narratives, not conviction. that's fine if you're fast enough. most aren't

BTC to $400K!

Dec 18, 2013. BTC is crashing hard from $1100 to $550. A hammered user named GameKyuubi logs onto BitcoinTalk to vent. He tries to type "I AM HOLDING" but fumbles the keyboard. "I AM HODLING" is born. He admits he’s a terrible trader who can't time the market, so he's just gonna sit on his stack. Fast forward a few hours, the typo goes viral. The absolute degen accidentally birthed the most iconic meme and investment strategy in crypto history. Zero coping, pure lore.

Your instinct is right and you’ve half named it yourself. The thing making you skeptical, “robust across XAUUSD, XAGUSD, DAX, S&P, USDJPY, BTC on the same parameter set,” is the actual tell, not the reassurance. One parameter set printing PF 2 to 5 across six unrelated asset classes almost never means you found a universal edge. It usually means you’re capturing one structural effect that happens to live in all of them, and you’ve labeled it robustness..
So the work is figuring out which it is. Three tests, in order.
Decompose by asset, not aggregate. You’re reading the 2 to 5 PF band as a range across instruments, but the real question is correlation of the equity curves. If XAU and DAX and BTC all made and lost money in the same weeks, you don’t have six independent edges, you have one edge sampled six times, and your effective trade count is closer to 130 than 780. That collapses your statistical reliability concern into a real problem. Run the cross correlation of the per instrument equity curves, if it’s high you’re far less diversified than the six markets suggest.. does this make sense??
Outlier dependence per instrument. 100 to 130 trades with a 35 to 45% win rate and PF up to 5 means a few big winners are doing heavy lifting. Strip the top 5 then top 10 winners by fixed count on each instrument and recompute PF. If the metals hold and something like BTC collapses, that tells you where the edge is real and where it’s three lucky trades.
Cost stress, since this is the cheapest kill gate and you already include costs. Double your spread and slippage assumption and rerun. A real structural edge degrades gracefully, a fragile one vanishes. On a 35 to 45% win rate system the breakeven is sensitive, so this bites fast.
On the 100 to 130 trades per market, your worry is correct, that’s thin, and Monte Carlo on a thin sample mostly reshuffles the same few trades so it reads more stable than it is. Per instrument, that sample can’t carry an annualized Sharpe near 2 with confidence.
Founder disclosure, I build validation tooling for systematic traders (Quantprove), so weight it accordingly, but this exact profile, suspiciously stable across unrelated markets on one parameter set, is the most common shape of a hidden single factor bet. The consistency is the thing to interrogate, not the thing that clears it.
Which instruments hold their profit factor when you strip the top 10 winners by count, and do the metals survive where the index or BTC sags?

Why would a much higher ETH valuation make the space less credible?
I am done accumulating ETH. I mined and bought years ago. Lower prices do nothing for me because I am not looking to DCA more at this point. I have already round-tripped since 2017. Someone trying to accumulate now may prefer extended lower prices, but that is not my preference.
BTC started 2017 around $1,000 and almost reached $20k by the end of that year. ETH crossed $1,000 about a year later, around January 2018. Crypto is far more volatile than stocks, so I expect more upside for taking that risk. Otherwise, why not just hold the S&P 500 and be done with it?
ETH has been above $2k-$3k so many times that being stuck there in 2026 feels pointless. The 5-year chart shows repeated round trips. ETH is still about 12.57% below its 2021 valuation, despite trading above $4k multiple times over that period.
BTC is far ahead if we compare current prices to prior cycle highs. BTC is trading around 3.26x its 2017 ATH, while ETH is only around 1.23x its 2018 ATH.
Personally, I would rather see BTC stay stagnant for a while while ETH catches up. You may want lower prices so you can buy more ETH with future bonuses. I do not. ETH should be around $4,500 right now if it had simply kept pace with BTC’s move from its 2017 ATH.

The part you're treating as reassurance is the part that should worry you most: "OOS and Monte Carlo both looked stable." Neither one tests what you're actually afraid of.
If you looked at the OOS segment and then went back and adjusted anything, it stopped being out-of-sample, it's just training data with extra steps. And Monte Carlo on your trades only reshuffles trades the strategy already picked, so it speaks to sequencing and path risk, not to whether the edge is real. You can't resample in-sample results into out-of-sample evidence.
Hunting for "signs of overfitting" in the in-sample stats is also backwards. A well-overfit strategy leaves no in-sample signs, that's what overfit means. Clean metrics aren't evidence either way.
Couple of real tells in what you wrote. Low parameter sensitivity can just mean the parameter does nothing and the return comes from a structural exposure (trend, short vol, session drift) that's there no matter where you set the knob. Robust-to-the-knob isn't robust. And "same params work on gold, silver, DAX, SPX, JPY, BTC" isn't proof, it's the warning. Those share vol regime and session structure, so it's closer to one bet than six, and breadth that wide usually means you found one common factor, not six edges.
The question that settles it for me: can you say in a sentence why this works and who's losing the money you're making? If the only answer is "it backtests well everywhere," the everywhere is the overfit.s

Honestly, buying a house is one of the best outcomes you can have from crypto. Too many people get stuck waiting for the absolute top and never end up turning their gains into something real. for me, BTC has mostly been about flexibility. I’ve used it for payments and moving money around without dealing with banks, and I’ve definitely made some bad calls along the way, too. looking back, cashing out for something tangible like a home feels way more satisfying than chasing one more cycle.

How did BTC work out if your average is $74k and it’s at $63.6k?

Not having BTC in your portfolio at all is a noobie mistake. In the past, I made that mistake myself.

Based on the average price you mentioned you could've sold your any amount of your BTC anywhere between 100k and 126k. You knew about the cycles, so why not sell and reinvest the profits back to BTC in bear market? Why still holding when you were up 4x?

Definitely do VOO, if you play with BTC just assume it can go to 0. If you're ok with that then go for it

pretty much always requires some custodial or trust-minimized step unfortunately, BTC just doesn't have smart contract capability natively so you cant move it cross-chain without some kind of wrapping or bridging mechanism in the middle. the "cleanest" options usually use threshold cryptography or decentralized custodians instead of single entity, which lowers the risk but doesnt fully eliminate it. if your amount is large the limits issue is real and you may need to split across multiple bridges or look at OTC desks that handle the wrap on your behalf

How to bridge BTC to Arbitrum?