BTCUSDMOVED20220615
Bitcoin June 15 2022 Daily MOVE Contracts
crypto

you were talking about between now and Autumn, where you did not see any room for a move to the downside. I do see room for a 2-3c relief towards end of summer before the low is confirmed in the increasing after-summer-market.
But I'm not currently thinking about trading, other than maybe a BTC 10x. But I am not sure if 58k low to 70k at end of 2027 is worth it. 20%\*10=200% gain. very long and very small for a 10x position.

This is actually a meaningful disclosure change that's getting buried in the headline.
Strategy's original "BTC Yield" metric tracked the change in BTC per diluted share over time — but it had a flaw: it didn't show that the ~$7B+ in convertible notes have a senior claim on the company's assets, including the BTC. If Strategy ever had to liquidate or restructure, noteholders get paid before common shareholders see a dollar. The BTC "per share" number was technically accurate but economically misleading.
The new approach that accounts for senior claims gives a clearer picture of what MSTR common shareholders actually own on a risk-adjusted basis. Effectively: (total BTC × BTC price - face value of senior notes) / shares outstanding. That's the residual equity value, not just gross BTC exposure.
Why it matters: A lot of retail traders use MSTR as leveraged BTC exposure without fully understanding the capital structure. The notes create a situation where BTC could be at $50k and MSTR equity is worth less than the gross BTC implies, because the debt holders capture the first slice.
Ironically, this more honest reporting might actually be *better* for the stock long-term — institutional buyers who model the capital structure correctly will find the valuation more defensible than one built on a metric that obscured leverage.

Doge didn’t really had any relief rally . Each month has been worst than the previous one since the Cheeto tarrifs started ( actually even earlier than that , since November 2024 after the cycle top) . The only exception was August 2025 where doge actually had a rally . And also October was better than September if I remember well , when BTC topped . Just before the Halloween crash .

My account has also been blocked; it held 3 BTC, 30 ETH, various other coins, and 500k USDT—bringing the total portfolio value to 1,200k USDT.

Just buy BTC and be done with it. Don’t fuck around with alts. It’s not worth it.

In paper, yes.. in reality BTC is farther from Satoshi’s ideal than ever.

That's a solid point about cycles changing the rules, I think many people got caught in the same trap of waiting for the pattern to repeat exactly. The Trump era really did make everything act weird, nothing followed the old playbook anymore.

I had similar experience with Raydium, was staring at that 10x and thinking it will go higher because all the analysts were saying alt season is coming. Then suddenly AI narrative took over and everything else just bled out slowly. The market dont care about our target prices.

What you said about Bitcoin being safer core position is probably the most important takeaway here. I moved most of my portfolio back to BTC after my altcoins kept dipping and at least I can sleep now without checking charts every hour.

BTC was an experiment. The creators weren't expecting it to become as popular as it did. You can't challenge the existing banking system (which was the inspiration behind it's creation) while sitting inside it. You have to act as a separate alternative which was why the underlying technology was decentralised Blockchain with new tokens being created as the reward for processing/legimising transactions. This design could have allowed it to act completely independently from the existing financial system. However, too few coins and too much energy required to make them was the second flaw. The casino that appeared around crypto completely undermined the original vision. This was the existing banking system absorbing crypto into itself as a means of protecting itself. If it had been a genuine threat it would have been banned very quickly. Financial institutions would have lobbied hard for it.

Yes, although increased integration of stablecoins into the economy would inevitably have positive effects on BTC.

You’ll be missing a great buying opportunity. The clarity act means nothing to BTC in the long run. Tik tok, next block.

that's why relief rallies happen. Bitcoin is hitting that 64k level again and again too...
Doge is always around 0.00000xxx BTC. We have traded between 125 169 BTC-fractions for most of the year, having dropped to 108 recently, which is 2018 high and 2020 mid-run support-level.
So we are currently at support above previous lows on USD and support at 2020-run support in BTC. Both \~1-3 months before Bitcoin is supposed to hit its cycle low around 68-60k, where it will turn around and slowly creep up for a year pulling alts with it.
Doge only really needs to return to the .072 level we have been trading at all month. We don't even have to do this now. 1 months 72, 1 month 68, 1 month 72, 1 month 67, low, recovery.
no problem. all in alignment with the cycle predictions. Just more compressed then expected.

Unironically though if this bill fails to pass, im going to short BTC and make millions

I bought BTC in 2023 5xed it and cashed out in 2024. It was good money indeed. Treated myself, gave some to my family and invested about half back to crypto thinking that it’s altcoins time to shine.
I had a chance in 2025 to cash out in Raydium when my investment more than 10xed. But I waited for it to hit 10 USD which it didn’t.
In between I binge watched cryptocurrency videos and felt really good about my decision to plow back my money to crypto. But with the situation now, I am seriously doubting myself.
Some will say, this is a bottom signal but I’ve heard that a number of times already and I think that alts won’t bounce back this year.
One thing I’ve learned is to stick to Bitcoin. Unless you really have good alpha on altcoins stay clear of them.
Once Bitcoin price hits a good spot from when you invested, it is okay to cash out. Waiting for 4 years for altcoins to rally is just too long of a wait. We don’t even know which ones are profitable. They’re too much of a risk.
I remember Warren Buffet saying that he doesn’t listen to macro analysts and now I agree with him. It is applicable to cryptocurrency as well.
Crypto Macro analysts were so confident that crypto will make a huge comeback this year due to debt repayment stuff but AI spoiled the party.
Oh well such is life, i wish I wasn’t too greedy and just believed experienced people saying not to invest in altcoins just yet until altcoin season
Is in full swing.

First of all, never compare yourself to people with 1, 10, or 100 BTC. We all started somewhere. Different life stage. Different life goal etc.
Focus on growing your income while consistently stacking sats. That’s far more powerful than trying to cut your way to a whole coin.
Personally, I wouldn’t live in my car just to buy more Bitcoin. Protect your health, your career, and your ability to earn. Learn new skills take up new side hustle. All of these will help you to stack more.
If we’re still in a bear market, as I believe we are, keep a regular DCA going, and be ready to buy more aggressively during periods of fear, especially around major long-term support like the 200-week moving average. Stack more during bear market stack less during bull market. Have a HODL and swing bag for bitcoin, take profits during bull market on your swing bag. By the time bear market comes, re-enter! Use the Bitcoin 4 years cycle to your advantage!
[Bitcoin Bear Market DCA Playbook](https://youtu.be/JXvr49ECTuo)

Poolin peaked at around 20-25% of Bitcoin's total hashrate in 2020-2021, which made them genuinely systemically important to the network. Their collapse is a good case study in how brutal the mining business model actually is.
The fundamental problem: mining has near-fixed costs (energy contracts, hardware depreciation) but income that's directly proportional to BTC price × (your hashrate / total network hashrate). When BTC dropped 75% in 2022, the math flipped overnight. Hardware bought at peak prices in 2021 suddenly had a payback period of decades.
Poolin's specific failure point was their "Pool.io" earnings account — they were offering yield on miners' accumulated BTC balances, essentially acting like an unregulated bank. When liquidity dried up in August 2022, they suspended withdrawals. Many miners lost their earned BTC sitting in that account.
The pattern repeated across the industry: Core Scientific (filed December 2022), Compute North (filed September 2022), Argo Blockchain (near-miss), Greenidge Generation... The Ethereum Merge also hit GPU miners who were pooling on Poolin's ETH side.
Worth noting: the miners who survived were the ones with locked-in low-cost energy contracts (sub $0.04/kWh) and owned their hardware outright rather than leasing. North American miners with cheap hydro/wind power had a structural advantage that Chinese miners largely lost after the 2021 ban.

go buy a pizza with BTC.....$80 USD late lol.....biggest POS digital fairty dust ever invented

Correct me if I am wrong but as long as your BTC is in a cold wallet it doesn't matter right?

OP obviously tripped the system, but not necessarily by doing something stupid or illegal. It is extremely frustrating and unfair, the way that CEX are “over-compliant”. And the CEXs pretty much have to be, because the threat of draconian consequences in case of a minor, individual sub- or non-compliance issue is very real. Governments are to blame. Citizens are by de facto denied the fundamental right of ‘presumption of innocence’: it is not that a prosecutor needs to prove your guilt of a crime, it is that the citizen needs to prove his innocence. It is fucked up, but it is reality.
For this reason, I leave only very small amounts on CEXs I use: enough fiat for my DCA buys, and no more than $500-$1000 worth of BTC before moving that to cold storage. And I am slowly moving away from CEX altogether, refocusing on DEX buying (and selling, when the time comes).

I had over 100k in my robinhood account in BTC and when I tried to remove it they literally froze my account for over a month with absolutely no explanation whatsoever. I spent hours and hours emailing, consulting attorneys, and endless phone calls. Its almost impossible to get someone on the phone and escalate the situation. Then they would tell me its unlocked and I can transfer to my own wallet. Then I would initiate transfer, the transaction would get denied, the account would relock, and the entire process started all over again. Over and over again. I can't begin to explain how frustrating this was. So no, its not time to rethink it. Not your keys not your F'ing coins. And Fuck Robinhood

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