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From the Coinbase one weekly report
Coinbase released a new research report called “Fresh Bid, Expensive Money,” and the Bitcoin section had a few important takeaways.
Bitcoin has rallied more than 10% even though the macro environment is still difficult. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.65%, the 30-year is above 5%, oil remains elevated, and the Fed could still take a hawkish position at its next meeting.
Normally, that combination would put pressure on Bitcoin. A long-term government bond yielding more than 5% competes directly for capital, especially because Bitcoin does not generate income or interest. Despite that, BTC has continued climbing toward the mid-$60,000 range.
Coinbase believes the main reason is the return of spot ETF demand. Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive inflow sessions for the first time since April, and those funds have recently been absorbing more Bitcoin than miners are issuing.
That is a positive development, but Coinbase does not consider it a confirmed reversal yet. ETF flows remain negative for the year, and some of the recent inflows may be connected to market-neutral basis trades rather than long-term bullish positioning.
Another important point was the relationship between Bitcoin and the AI and semiconductor trade.
Earlier in 2026, semiconductor stocks attracted a large share of available risk capital while Bitcoin lagged. More recently, Bitcoin and AI-related stocks have risen during some of the same sessions, while the performance gap between them has narrowed.
Coinbase interprets this as evidence that the AI trade may no longer be diverting capital away from Bitcoin. However, the current data does not yet show a broad liquidity expansion lifting every risk asset. The Bitcoin rally still appears to be driven mostly by crypto-specific ETF demand.
The options market may also limit short-term upside.
Traders have been selling a large amount of July 31 Bitcoin calls around the $72,000 strike. This can create a mechanical ceiling because dealer hedging may produce additional selling as Bitcoin approaches those levels.
Coinbase identified the following BTC levels:
Support at $63,000, followed by $58,000 to $60,000.
Resistance at $68,000, followed by approximately $73,000.
The scenarios are straightforward:
Holding above $68,000 would favor a move toward $73,000.
Losing $63,000 would favor a move back toward $60,000.
Losing the $58,000 to $60,000 range could open significantly more downside.
The main conclusion from the report is that Bitcoin is no longer rising only because sellers are becoming exhausted. There is now evidence of an actual institutional buyer returning through the spot ETFs.
At the same time, the rally remains dependent on that ETF demand. Long-term yields are still high, the Fed remains a risk, and options positioning could keep Bitcoin range-bound through the end of the month.
The report is cautiously constructive, but it does not treat the current move as a confirmed breakout. The stronger confirmation would be Bitcoin holding above $68,000 while ETF inflows continue and long-term Treasury yields stabilize.

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Bitcoin September 15 2020 Daily MOVE Contracts
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