ARPAHT
ARPA Chain / Huobi Token
crypto

The maturation point does have some support in the numbers with membership only growing 1% in FY2025, so revenue growth is coming almost entirely from ARPA.
I'd still separate "maturing" from "deteriorated" due to timing: the margin guidance cut landed in early November and the stock was still \~655p the day before the litigation disclosure; the 33% drop came in the six sessions after it. The de-rating maps onto the legal events, not the operating prints.
The attrition scenario is potentially already visible with Auto Trader's latest results showing its price lever added £117 per retailer while the volume lever dragged -£48, double the prior year. If Rightmove's membership goes from +1% to negative while ARPA keeps rising, that's important to watch, which is why the July H1 membership number matters more than the revenue line imo.

"The operating business has not deteriorated over that stretch. The de-rating traces almost entirely to a competition lawsuit whose financial exposure remains undisclosed."
With respect, that's a very subjective view. One could argue that the operating business is maturing, finding it harder to raise ARPA than in prior years and/or about to face further headwinds in the form of UK macro shrinking its customer base in both estate agents (who are not selling enough properties to survive) and housebuilders (whose inability to build enough houses relative to their own targets is well-reported).

The maturation point does have some support in the numbers with membership only growing 1% in FY2025, so revenue growth is coming almost entirely from ARPA.
I'd still separate "maturing" from "deteriorated" due to timing: the margin guidance cut landed in early November and the stock was still \~655p the day before the litigation disclosure; the 33% drop came in the six sessions after it. The de-rating maps onto the legal events, not the operating prints.
The attrition scenario is potentially already visible with Auto Trader's latest results showing its price lever added £117 per retailer while the volume lever dragged -£48, double the prior year. If Rightmove's membership goes from +1% to negative while ARPA keeps rising, that's important to watch, which is why the July H1 membership number matters more than the revenue line imo.

"The operating business has not deteriorated over that stretch. The de-rating traces almost entirely to a competition lawsuit whose financial exposure remains undisclosed."
With respect, that's a very subjective view. One could argue that the operating business is maturing, finding it harder to raise ARPA than in prior years and/or about to face further headwinds in the form of UK macro shrinking its customer base in both estate agents (who are not selling enough properties to survive) and housebuilders (whose inability to build enough houses relative to their own targets is well-reported).