Jubilant FoodWorks at 52-Week Low: Can Domino’s Growth and Popeyes Expansion Turn Things Around?
Eating out hasn't been easy for restaurant companies this past year. Prices of everything went up, people thought twice before ordering that extra pizza, and stocks in the space took a beating. Investors have been waiting for a sign that demand is returning. Now a few numbers are showing exactly that, though not everywhere, and the share price hasn't really cared about it yet.
Jubilant FoodWorks share closed at ₹423, down 1.16% from the previous close of ₹427.95. The company has a market cap of ₹27,911 crore and a consolidated P/E of 62. Its 52-week range is ₹408.50 to ₹622.50, so the stock is sitting not far above the bottom.
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Domino's Sales Are Slowly Waking Up
Start with like-for-like growth, or LFL, which just means sales growth from stores that were already open a year back. For Domino's, it was 0.2% in Q4 FY26, then 2.5% in Q1 FY27, with Motilal estimating 4.1% for Q2 FY27. Not a big number, but the direction is right. Delivery is now 76% of Domino's sales, up from 64% in FY24, and the company's own app brings around 70% of online orders, so it leans less on outside delivery apps.
The weak spot is dine-in and takeaway, which got hurt when customers moved to smaller orders on those apps. The company is pushing hard there with store upgrades and cheaper meal offers. It has guided for 5-7% LFL growth in FY27.
Popeyes Is The Fun Part
Popeyes revenue jumped 97% to about ₹70 crore in Q1 FY27, and LFL growth was above 40% for the third quarter in a row. Stores went from 42 in FY24 to 88 now. Average daily sales per store hit ₹96,000, same as KFC, which is a big deal for a young brand.
Management wants 250 stores and ₹1,000 crore revenue in the next three to four years. But look at the size, ₹70 crore is tiny next to a company doing ₹9,512 crore a year, so it will take a lot of time to really move the needle. Also the brand isn't at EBITDA break-even yet because marketing costs are heavy upfront.
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What The Numbers Say
FY26 revenue came in at ₹9,512.5 crore, EBITDA at ₹1,887.8 crore and adjusted profit at ₹410.1 crore, up 66.2%. Brokerage estimates have profit going to ₹493.5 crore in FY27 and ₹619.2 crore in FY28. One odd thing though. FIIs cut their stake from 21.4% to 13.7% in a year, while DIIs raised theirs from 32.5% to 39.6%. So the big local funds are buying exactly what foreign money is selling, and the stock price is stuck in the middle.
What Could Go Wrong
Motilal Oswal maintained its Buy rating with a target price of ₹625, about 48% a bove the current price. It says the heavy supply chain spending is mostly done, with eight commissaries that can handle around 5,000 stores. Capex for FY27 is guided at ₹750-900 crore, so the focus now is making each store earn more.
The worry is DP Eurasia, the overseas arm that gives 26% of revenue. Revenue there grew 28% to ₹670 crore in Q1, but underlying demand in Turkey is weak, and hyperinflation and currency swings keep messing with the reported numbers. And at a P/E above 60, the stock already prices in a good bit of recovery.
Jubilant FoodWorks runs Domino's Pizza in India and has also added Popeyes and Hong's Kitchen. Through its overseas arm DP Eurasia it operates Domino's in Turkey and the COFFY coffee chain. The company had over 3,600 stores across India and overseas at the end of FY26. It has also decided to exit the Dunkin brand and slow down growth at Hong's Kitchen, to put its money into stronger brands.
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Bottom Line
Honestly, the story here is simple. Domino's is recovering bit by bit, Popeyes is growing fast from a small base, and the heavy spending phase is mostly over. That should help profits and cash over time. But the stock is still expensive on P/E, the overseas business is shaky and the profit growth is only estimates for now. Investors will want to see if LFL growth really reaches the 5-7% range in the coming quarters. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, so do your own research.