Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.1% year-over-year in August
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). June closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data . Case-Shiller House Prices From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in August 2026 The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 2.1% annual gain for August 2026 , up from a 1.9% rise in the previous month. U.S. home values fell in real terms for the 15th consecutive month, as August’s 3.4% inflation ran roughly 1.3 percentage points above the 2.1% home price gain. A nearly 9 percentage point gap separated August’s strongest market (Chicago +6.7% YoY) and its weakest (Seattle -2.0% YoY), underscoring the strong regional divergence in home price trends. “U.S. home prices declined in real terms for the 15th consecutive month in August 2026, though the gap narrowed as nominal home price growth strengthened,” said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 2.1% year-over-year in August, up from 1.9% in July, while consumer prices increased 3.4% (the same year over year gain as in July 2026). “Chicago led all metros for the sixth consecutive month, posting a 6.7% annual gain, followed by New York (6.2%) and Cleveland (4.3%). On the West coast, Seattle recorded the largest annual decline for the third consecutive month at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-0.8%). “Seasonality continued to weigh on headline monthly results. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices fell 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while their seasonally adjusted counterparts rose 0.3% and 0.4%. The divergence suggests that the typical post-summer slowdown is obscuring some underlying strength in home prices.“ Affordability, however, remains challenging. With inflation at 3.4%, Brent crude near $100 per barrel and mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range, households continue to face elevated costs alongside persistently high home prices.” ... The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.1% annual gain for August. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 3.6%, up from a 3.4% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, up from a 2.5% rise in the previous month. ... The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index posted a monthly decrease of 0.2%; while both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices recorded a monthly decline of 0.4%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 10-City, and 20-City Composite Indices posted 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.3% gains, respectively. emphasis added The Composite 10 NSA was up 3.6% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.7% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year. This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in August (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in August. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in August. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The National index increased 0.28% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted. Annual price changes were above expectations. FHFA House Price Index Up 2.4% Year-over-Year Note: The FHFA HPI is used to set the confirming loan limits. On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in August; Up 2.4 Percent from Last Year U.S. house prices rose nationwide in August, up 0.3 percent from the previous month, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 2.4 percent from August 2025 to August 2026. The previously reported 0.3 percent price increase in July was revised down to 0.2 percent. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8 percent in the New England division to +2.1 percent in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes ranged from +0.5 percent in the Mountain division to +4.4 percent in the East North Central division. emphasis added And a few things to watch … The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers! CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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