Rate Swings Stall Deals as CRE Brokerages Cut Q4 Forecasts
Rate Swings Stall Deals as CRE Brokerages Cut Q4 Forecasts
Rate volatility has frozen deals that normally close by year-end, flattening the brokerage rebound.
Nina Dale November 12, 2026
Good morning. The biggest CRE brokerages were counting on a strong close to the year, until the 10-year Treasury lurched past 5.3% and buyers hit pause. Now they expect a flat fourth quarter.
This Week on No Cap: First Washington Realty CEO Alex Nyhan explains how his grocery-anchored portfolio abated less than 1% of rent through COVID, and why he won’t chase the highest-credit tenant for every box.
CRE Trivia
Which coffee chain took its name from a first mate in the novel Moby-Dick?
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Market Snapshot
S&P 500
GSPC
7,619.38
Pct Chg: +1.31%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
853.20
Pct Chg: -0.075%
10Y Treasury
TNX
5.00%
Pct Chg: +0.138%
CME Term SOFR
1-Month
3.92%
Pct Chg: -0.00
*Data as of 11/10/2026 market close.
The Waiting Game
CRE Brokerages Brace for a Flat Fourth Quarter
Rate whiplash has the largest CRE brokerages bracing for a flat finish to the year, as a Treasury spike stalled the deals that normally close by December , according to Bisnow.
By the numbers: According to JPMorgan, Q4 capital markets revenue across CBRE, JLL, Cushman and Colliers should land flat YoY, down from an earlier call for 10% growth. Q4 typically delivers about 30% of a year's capital markets revenue, and December alone roughly 15%, so the timing stings.
What's happening: The 10-year Treasury topped 5.3% in early October before sliding to about 4.8%, enough movement to freeze buyers mid-deal. CBRE's Bob Sulentic said cap rates have risen, contracted sales are being retraded, and some expected deals are turning into refinancings.
Mixed signals: The year was strong until the shock. YTD capital markets revenue through Q3 climbed 21% at JLL, 14.5% at Newmark and 10% at Cushman & Wakefield. Cushman's Michelle MacKay said her pipeline has barely moved, and Colliers still expects pipelines to grow, just slower than planned.
Looking ahead: JPMorgan sees a rougher 2027, with capital markets revenue down 20% in Q1, narrowing to a 10% decline in Q2 before returning to growth by Q4. Newmark was more bearish, warning that sustained volatility and higher yields could cut activity 20% to 30%.
Why it matters: Multifamily looks most exposed because it carries the lowest cap rates, while office has a cushion after repricing early. More than 80% of traders expect a quarter-point Fed hike in December, so where yields settle will decide how many deals close this year.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Stability is what sells: Buyers and sellers want rates to stop moving, not for them to fall. A rate-driven freeze can thaw faster than a demand-driven one, so stalled deals may resurface in early 2027 once the 10-year finds a level.
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Holding firm : CRE is weathering mixed signals, with Q3 GDP up 3.4% and retail sales up 6.3% YoY, even as inflation holds at 3.7% and the 10-year nears 5%.
Steady floor : Single-family rental occupancy held at 94.9% in October as build-to-rent asking rents slipped $4 to $2,247, up just 1.1% YoY.
Timber rising : US mass-timber buildings have topped 1,500 this year, up from under 100 a decade ago, as developers swap engineered wood for pricier steel and concrete.
Private surge : Private CRE lending has likely doubled since 2019, with originations up 35% at debt funds this year as nonbank capital keeps grabbing share from banks.
Multifamily
Cheap debt : A Harvard proposal floats 40-year federal loans at 0% to the fed funds rate, arguing cheap capital cuts rents far more than construction savings alone.
Closing gap : Single-family renters now earn 60.9% of what owners do, up from 53.9% in 2005, as rentals increasingly house families that once would have bought.
Boston eases : Boston's Mayor Wu wants to ease how developers pay affordability fees to restart a stalled pipeline, keeping the 17%-plus set-aside but softening the timing.
Supply trough : New apartment supply is set to fall 22% in 2026 to 513,883 units and bottom near 450,964 in 2027, roughly 35% below the 2024 peak.
Brickell bet : OKO Group and Oak Row plan a 1,049-foot Brickell tower under Aman's new Atma brand, anchored by a 120K SF racquet-sports center fronted by Novak Djokovic.
Industrial
Stronger coverage : Life-company industrial loans carry 2.47x debt-service coverage versus 1.51x for securitized loans, and back far larger buildings at a 250,000 SF median.
Rent hurdle : New warehouses mostly won't pencil until industrial rents climb about 27%, a gap stalling spec construction even as tenant demand quietly widens.
Earn-out refi : Faropoint landed a $474M refinancing across 85 industrial buildings, including an $84M reserve that pays out if the portfolio's NOI climbs over the loan term.
Retail
Hike locked : October CPI rose 0.4%, topping forecasts and pushing traders to fully price a December Fed hike, as core inflation gained 0.3% and shelter drove the increase.
Quality split : Even top-performing malls still trade at elevated cap rates, a gap that rewards buyers willing to underwrite quality centers the market keeps discounting.
Store search : The Children's Place filed for Chapter 11 with $881M in debt against $742M in assets, hunting a buyer for its 514 stores as closures begin.
Arena reset : San Diego cleared the $4.2B Midway Rising redevelopment, swapping its aging sports arena for a 16,000-seat venue, 4,224 homes and 130,000 SF of retail.
Office
Dallas drag : Office loans make up over a fifth of DFW's delinquent CMBS value versus about an eighth nationally, with the metro carrying $434M of delinquent debt.
Portfolio trim : Empire State Realty is marketing another Manhattan office building, extending a steady retreat from the borough's weaker assets as it recycles capital into stronger holdings.
Wacker discount : Two local investors bought the 441K SF tower at 121 W. Wacker for $30M, about 75% below its 2018 price, as discounted Chicago office changes hands.
Hospitality
Luxury leads : US hotel RevPAR rose about 7% in Q3 as luxury led the recovery, while select-service and midscale lagged against easy year-ago comparisons.
Knoxville raise : Vector Hospitality secured about $47M in financing for a Knoxville hotel project, extending its Southeast development run as construction debt stays tight.
Spread cut : Braemar closed a $358M CMBS loan on four luxury hotels, trimming its weighted-average spread about 104 bps to SOFR plus 2.37% and pushing maturities to 2031.
CHART OF THE DAY
Industrial buildings twice as close to a firm power plant sold at a 6.4% premium in 2022. So far in 2026, that premium is 2.0%. In 2000, the same proximity sold at a 4.6% discount. In short: the power premium rose and has mostly faded.
CRE Trivia (Answer)
Starbucks. Its founders named the chain after Starbuck, the first mate aboard the whaleship Pequod in Herman Melville's Moby-Dick.
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The post Rate Swings Stall Deals as CRE Brokerages Cut Q4 Forecasts appeared first on CRE Daily .