Metaplanet Cuts 2026 Revenue Target 59%: Is the Bitcoin Playbook Running Dry?
Metaplanet cut its 2026 revenue forecast by 59% on November 13, to ¥6.5 billion from ¥16 billion. Its operating profit forecast fell 74%, to ¥3 billion from ¥11.4 billion.
The Tokyo-listed Bitcoin (BTC) treasury firm traced the cut to its own discounted stock. Metaplanet stock fell 4.37% to ¥219 that day, down 53.21% so far in 2026.
Metaplanet Stock Performance in 2026. Source: Google Finance
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Why a Cheap Stock Starved the Bitcoin Machine
The original target assumed Metaplanet could keep raising money at its late-2025 pace. That cash was meant to buy more Bitcoin and grow its options-based Bitcoin Income business .
The plan stalled once mNAV stayed below 1x. That ratio compares the company’s market value with its Bitcoin. At that level, new shares would dilute the Bitcoin held per share. So Metaplanet held back on share sales. Bitcoin purchases and income business volume both came in below plan.
The ¥52 billion convertible bond issued in October will not fill the gap.
Metaplanet will put those proceeds toward share buybacks first. That leaves limited funds for new Bitcoin or the income business, according to the filing .
Costs also climb in the fourth quarter. Metaplanet will consolidate Metaplanet Securities and book goodwill amortization from that acquisition.
What the Numbers Say About the Final Quarter
The revised targets look harsher next to results so far this year. Nine-month revenue rose 30.5% to ¥5.9 billion, per Metaplanet’s results . Operating profit grew 26.5% to about ¥3.5 billion.
Yet losses on Bitcoin valuation and a third-quarter Bitcoin sale left a ¥27.2 billion net loss.
The new forecast implies only about ¥600 million in fourth-quarter revenue. Revenue averaged nearly ¥2 billion per quarter through September.
Operating profit already exceeds the ¥3 billion full-year goal, which points to a fourth-quarter operating loss.
The ¥6.5 billion target also sits 27% below 2025 revenue of ¥8.9 billion. The original target, set on February 16, implied about 80% growth.
Is the Bitcoin Treasury Playbook Running Dry?
Metaplanet says its Bitcoin-centered strategy remains unchanged. Still, the growth model relied on selling stock priced above the Bitcoin behind it.
With mNAV below 1x, that funding route has narrowed, and buybacks now take priority.
More pressure comes on November 30. That day, MSCI drops Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index and Strategy from its USA Index .
Its new removal rules target companies that behave like investment vehicles. Funds tracking those benchmarks will need to sell the shares.
More pressure comes on November 30. That day, MSCI removes Metaplanet and Strategy from its indexes, following its index removal rules for Bitcoin treasuries . Funds tracking those benchmarks will need to sell their holdings.
A sustained mNAV recovery above 1x would reopen equity funding and weaken this read.
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