SAGD
SOUTH AMERICAN GOLD CORP
stock OTC

Be careful investing in Canadian oil. For starters the quality is poor and transport costs are high. Texas oil (WTI) typically trades 12-15 dollars better than Alberta oil (WCS).
Alberta oil fans will defend it stating its break even costs are low, but this is complicated. It's full cycle costs (to setup a new well) are quite high. On the flip side it's half-cycle costs can be low. If you invest in Alberta oil, you need to figure out if it is an oil mine or SAGD (steam assisted well). The mines have much longer life times and lower half-cycle costs, but have signifant capital/full-cycle costs. Half-cycle costs also ignore depletion which isn't fair.
Alberta oil mines are also environmental disasters that produce several barrels of toxic waste for each barrel of oil mined. These can be legal liabilities even many years after the mine stops operating.
Lastly, Alberta faces serious carbon taxes (95 dollars per ton of carbon in 2026) but could increase to 125 per ton in 2027 and 170 in 2030 depending on what the Canadian government does. 95 dollars might mean 0.3-1.20 cost per barrel of oil...while a 170 tax might be a 2.50-4.50 an oil barrel tax.
Lastly, oil prices will likely collapse in 2026/2027 due to excess supply. I wrote about this at: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy\_stocks\_are\_currently\_a\_value\_trap/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy_stocks_are_currently_a_value_trap/)

The oil companies I'm watching closely are Vaalco Energy (EGY, West African offshore, will double production by 2030, exploration upside), Vista Energy (VIST, Argentine shale oil, fastest organic growth), Greenfire Resources (GFR, Canadian oil sands with higher cost SAGD production, lowest price of reserves, now under Strathcona management), and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, *the* leading Canadian upstream).
With the exception of CNQ, these are all small caps, which is where the best values with most leverage usually hide. I'm playing gold in the same way, with ARMN, CMCL, GAU, and TRX.
US natural gas doesn't offer any attractive small or market cap companies.. On the basis of cost per production and reserves, I'm looking at Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO, TRMLF, leading Canadian gas producer, well managed, high leverage to new pipelines), Antero Resources (AR, Pennsylvania gas), Range Resources (RRC, West Virginia and Ohio gas), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR, Ohio & Oklahoma gas). Sometimes I consider Expand Energy (EXE, the old Chesapeake Energy), but its still managed by reckless cowboys.

Be careful investing in Canadian oil. For starters the quality is poor and transport costs are high. Texas oil (WTI) typically trades 12-15 dollars better than Alberta oil (WCS).
Alberta oil fans will defend it stating its break even costs are low, but this is complicated. It's full cycle costs (to setup a new well) are quite high. On the flip side it's half-cycle costs can be low. If you invest in Alberta oil, you need to figure out if it is an oil mine or SAGD (steam assisted well). The mines have much longer life times and lower half-cycle costs, but have signifant capital/full-cycle costs. Half-cycle costs also ignore depletion which isn't fair.
Alberta oil mines are also environmental disasters that produce several barrels of toxic waste for each barrel of oil mined. These can be legal liabilities even many years after the mine stops operating.
Lastly, Alberta faces serious carbon taxes (95 dollars per ton of carbon in 2026) but could increase to 125 per ton in 2027 and 170 in 2030 depending on what the Canadian government does. 95 dollars might mean 0.3-1.20 cost per barrel of oil...while a 170 tax might be a 2.50-4.50 an oil barrel tax.
Lastly, oil prices will likely collapse in 2026/2027 due to excess supply. I wrote about this at: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy\_stocks\_are\_currently\_a\_value\_trap/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy_stocks_are_currently_a_value_trap/)

Be careful investing in Canadian oil. For starters the quality is poor and transport costs are high. Texas oil (WTI) typically trades 12-15 dollars better than Alberta oil (WCS).
Alberta oil fans will defend it stating its break even costs are low, but this is complicated. It's full cycle costs (to setup a new well) are quite high. On the flip side it's half-cycle costs can be low. If you invest in Alberta oil, you need to figure out if it is an oil mine or SAGD (steam assisted well). The mines have much longer life times and lower half-cycle costs, but have signifant capital/full-cycle costs. Half-cycle costs also ignore depletion which isn't fair.
Alberta oil mines are also environmental disasters that produce several barrels of toxic waste for each barrel of oil mined. These can be legal liabilities even many years after the mine stops operating.
Lastly, Alberta faces serious carbon taxes (95 dollars per ton of carbon in 2026) but could increase to 125 per ton in 2027 and 170 in 2030 depending on what the Canadian government does. 95 dollars might mean 0.3-1.20 cost per barrel of oil...while a 170 tax might be a 2.50-4.50 an oil barrel tax.
Lastly, oil prices will likely collapse in 2026/2027 due to excess supply. I wrote about this at: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy\_stocks\_are\_currently\_a\_value\_trap/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy_stocks_are_currently_a_value_trap/)

The oil companies I'm watching closely are Vaalco Energy (EGY, West African offshore, will double production by 2030, exploration upside), Vista Energy (VIST, Argentine shale oil, fastest organic growth), Greenfire Resources (GFR, Canadian oil sands with higher cost SAGD production, lowest price of reserves, now under Strathcona management), and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, *the* leading Canadian upstream).
With the exception of CNQ, these are all small caps, which is where the best values with most leverage usually hide. I'm playing gold in the same way, with ARMN, CMCL, GAU, and TRX.
US natural gas doesn't offer any attractive small or market cap companies.. On the basis of cost per production and reserves, I'm looking at Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO, TRMLF, leading Canadian gas producer, well managed, high leverage to new pipelines), Antero Resources (AR, Pennsylvania gas), Range Resources (RRC, West Virginia and Ohio gas), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR, Ohio & Oklahoma gas). Sometimes I consider Expand Energy (EXE, the old Chesapeake Energy), but its still managed by reckless cowboys.

Be careful investing in Canadian oil. For starters the quality is poor and transport costs are high. Texas oil (WTI) typically trades 12-15 dollars better than Alberta oil (WCS).
Alberta oil fans will defend it stating its break even costs are low, but this is complicated. It's full cycle costs (to setup a new well) are quite high. On the flip side it's half-cycle costs can be low. If you invest in Alberta oil, you need to figure out if it is an oil mine or SAGD (steam assisted well). The mines have much longer life times and lower half-cycle costs, but have signifant capital/full-cycle costs. Half-cycle costs also ignore depletion which isn't fair.
Alberta oil mines are also environmental disasters that produce several barrels of toxic waste for each barrel of oil mined. These can be legal liabilities even many years after the mine stops operating.
Lastly, Alberta faces serious carbon taxes (95 dollars per ton of carbon in 2026) but could increase to 125 per ton in 2027 and 170 in 2030 depending on what the Canadian government does. 95 dollars might mean 0.3-1.20 cost per barrel of oil...while a 170 tax might be a 2.50-4.50 an oil barrel tax.
Lastly, oil prices will likely collapse in 2026/2027 due to excess supply. I wrote about this at: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy\_stocks\_are\_currently\_a\_value\_trap/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1q1f7gq/warningenergy_stocks_are_currently_a_value_trap/)