GCEA
GRIFFIN RLTY TRUST INC E
stock OTC

Thank you for sharing this.
This is a great write-up, and it highlights some of the challenges inherent in understanding the value of a truly universal flu prophylaxis like CD388. The authors advocate using a Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) to capture the full societal value of a medicine since traditional methods often fall short.
It’s worth noting that their “reasonable bottom-up” value-based price (VBP) for CD388 using GCEA comes out to $7,314 per dose! The point isn’t that the market would support this price, but rather that society would not be overpaying at this level, given the magnitude of benefit the drug delivers.
By contrast, I’ve been modeling U.S. pricing at just $495 per dose. That’s conservative on purpose. My focus is building a robust, defensible baseline valuation, not stretching to capture the full upside of a potential multi-blockbuster medication.
The big picture: Even with modest assumptions, CD388 should be worth far more than what the market is pricing today. That disconnect is what I’m trying to understand.

Thank you for sharing this.
This is a great write-up, and it highlights some of the challenges inherent in understanding the value of a truly universal flu prophylaxis like CD388. The authors advocate using a Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) to capture the full societal value of a medicine since traditional methods often fall short.
It’s worth noting that their “reasonable bottom-up” value-based price (VBP) for CD388 using GCEA comes out to $7,314 per dose! The point isn’t that the market would support this price, but rather that society would not be overpaying at this level, given the magnitude of benefit the drug delivers.
By contrast, I’ve been modeling U.S. pricing at just $495 per dose. That’s conservative on purpose. My focus is building a robust, defensible baseline valuation, not stretching to capture the full upside of a potential multi-blockbuster medication.
The big picture: Even with modest assumptions, CD388 should be worth far more than what the market is pricing today. That disconnect is what I’m trying to understand.