ASPR
ADSOUTH PARTNERS INC
stock OTC

While there are some risks, reductions or cancellations are very unlikely. The company primarily works with BARDA (ASPR) and has so far been unaffected by the DOGE, which hasn't interfered with their operations. In fact, BARDA's budget has increased for 2025, and new government orders continue to come in. During the last earnings call (Q3 2024), the CEO mentioned they have bipartisan support for their operations.
I believe they will exceed earnings expectations for the following reason: their full-year guidance for COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) is 707M at the low end, implying expected Q4 COGS of 143.7M (low end). However, this projection doesn't make sense given they've laid off over 650 employees since the beginning of the year, and these projections seem to be based on the workforce size from early in the year. The CFO stated in the conference call that they expect operating expenses in Q4 to be even lower than Q3 due to cost reduction measures, yet Q3 COGS was only 122.6M. With Q4 sales expected to be lower than Q3, it's illogical to project an additional 21M in COGS with lower revenue and after implementing cost reductions.

While there are some risks, reductions or cancellations are very unlikely. The company primarily works with BARDA (ASPR) and has so far been unaffected by the DOGE, which hasn't interfered with their operations. In fact, BARDA's budget has increased for 2025, and new government orders continue to come in. During the last earnings call (Q3 2024), the CEO mentioned they have bipartisan support for their operations.
I believe they will exceed earnings expectations for the following reason: their full-year guidance for COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) is 707M at the low end, implying expected Q4 COGS of 143.7M (low end). However, this projection doesn't make sense given they've laid off over 650 employees since the beginning of the year, and these projections seem to be based on the workforce size from early in the year. The CFO stated in the conference call that they expect operating expenses in Q4 to be even lower than Q3 due to cost reduction measures, yet Q3 COGS was only 122.6M. With Q4 sales expected to be lower than Q3, it's illogical to project an additional 21M in COGS with lower revenue and after implementing cost reductions.