NM
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.
stock NYSE

A few months back, I gave my preliminary analysis of Nintendo ($NTDOY) with rudimentary knowledge of investments and valuation. I’ve felt I’ve learnt alot since then and more information has come out so this is how I value Nintendo know and wondering if anyone can help to question and challenge this analysis to improve on it!
USD:JPY Rate : 144
Current Price : 13,100 JPY / 21.57 USD (ADR price likely increase once market opens tonight due to 6% increase in Japan markets)
Shares Outstanding : 1,164 Mn
Market Cap : 105 Bb USD (13,100 x 1,164 / 144)
PE Ratio : 55
FY 2025 (ended March 31, 2025) Revenue : 1.2T JPY / 8Bn USD
Nintendo gave a FY 26 forecast of 1.9T JPY Revenue which comes to about 13,000 USD. Taking the last 9 quarters, their average net margins (NM) is ard 26% but only 24% as of last quarter. Assuming a conservative NM of 22% and a PE of 40x (higher than historical but lower than current and imo warranted given growth the switch 2 will bring), this would result in earnings of roughly 2.8 Bn net income (NI) and market cap (MC) of 114Bn USD, 8% upside over current market cap. 8% gain in 1 year is good but not amazing. However, I believe Nintendo can provide alot more as the revenue estimates are conservative.
In their last earnings, Nintendo said they expect to sell roughly 15M switch 2 hardware and 45M switch 2 software. These softwares includes bundled software (like the mario kart + switch bundle at launch) so I thought to revise down to 2.5 games per console instead of 3 which comes to 37.5M. Switch 2 has been selling @500 USD in America while games will likely go for around @70 USD. This means the incremental revenue for switch 2 is around 15M x 500 USD + 37.5M x 70 USD = 10,500 USD. They also forecasted 105M Switch 1 games. Being conservative we can take 100M games x avg price of 40 = 4,000 USD. These already brings us to 14,500 USD not including other income like switch 1 hardware, nintendo online, 3rd party licenses, mobile and IP revenue, merch etc etc so let’s round off revenue to 15,000 USD. With the same NM and PE, the MC is now 132Bn USD, which is a 25% upside after today’s jump.
Hope to see what ya’ll think about this analysis and if there’s any holes I’m missing out! One of my biggest uncertainty right now is the future NM, Nintendo forecasted 300 Bn JPY of NI for FY26, which is a NM of 15% vs my estimate of 25%.
However, I don’t see how their NM would fall so low especially given historical stronger NMs. Additionally, NM was likely under pressure the past 1-2 years due to Switch 2 development, marketing and logistics cost leading to its launch date. I think there’s also potential for higher revenue through levers such as higher switch 2 sales, more games sold per console and greater “other revenue” such as nintendo online and 3rd-party licenses.
So I’m targeting around 20% - 30% upside on Nintendo, which would be about $26 - $28.

Plus they only labeled some bases. All of NM is missing military bases, there are several.