MCX
Medley Capital Corporation 6.50% Notes due 2021
stock NYSE

MCX silver is at 291000 approx right now. Per kg. If you apply exchange rate of 91.65 and convert it to per troy ounce you get somewhere close 100USD/troy ounce. This means its trading 15 dollars at premium compared to comex. Why is that?

As per some messages people received from ICICI Direct , the Initial margin for Gold has been increased to almost 30% and Silver is almost at 70% . What this means for the Indian commodity F&O is -
Weak hands that were playing leveraged long speculatively ( long forwards ) when the IM was about 8-10% cannot afford that anymore or rather they have to reduce leverage by 1/3 . For silver you are better off buying the spot than the leveraged forward (70% is way too high ) . Bottomline - very less speculative long positions in MCX and this does not bode well for MCX as a stock as we can expect the trading volumes to plummet and couple more such large moves , leveraged long will stop making any sense at all - making MCX volumes go down even further !

What do yo mean MCX is trading at premium?

MCX is already reflecting that. Why do you think silver and gold on mcx is trading at a premium.

I‘m a bit confused so please bear with me. The increase in margin is only for MCX derivatives right, how will that affect ETF prices? Unless of course people holding both MCX futures and silver ETFs decide to sell the ETFs and fund the additional margin, but that‘s not a direct causation right?

Since ETFs don't trade on MCX, it is not applicable to them.
It is for futures & option selling.

This circular from MCX says something different [notification](https://share.google/T9wAJNC8zHMGYXwaz)

What do you mean “if”? It’s a certainty. And there is no lower circuit for etfs. And on top of that these mofos that have etfs on MCX just raised margin requirements. The crash tomorrow will make friday look like a massage. Ever seen an asset go down 99% in a day because 99.9% of traders were forced to liquidate?

In MCX, silver is at 2.91L. I see 20% downside from this. Will be buying 1/3 installment.

MCX as a beginner ? You are fucked my friend

From a long time I wanted to put some of my allocations into silver and currently I believe that this might be the right time to enter this asset
Wanted to ask whether these Indian silver ETFs are representative of the real physical silver or the paper silver currently on which there is a lot of speculation going on. There is rumour in the market as well as in the world that silver was forcefully drag down by the Western exchanges to decrease some of their obligations on their 'paper' assets
If you guys remember there was a short squeeze kind of situation as well in the MCX around 1.5 to 2 months back
So if there is so much pressure on the availability of physical silver I am confused that the claims by Indian ETFs AMC that they hold physical silver are true or not
And instead of a buying silver ETFs should I move towards buying physical silver from the market?
Please help very much confused currently

You sound like you know what you are saying OP but I don't think silvebees prices are inflated against spot prices. So I thought I'll ask chatgpt to confirm. Here is it's response :)
Ah. This Reddit post is a classic *panic + half-truth + exaggeration cocktail*. Let me decode it calmly and separate what’s valid from what’s nonsense.
What this post is
It’s a fear-driven narrative written by someone who:
traded CME silver futures/options (very different beast)
is extrapolating US leveraged ETF blowups to Indian physical-backed ETFs
is mixing spot, futures, leverage, margin calls, and INR ETFs into one scary story
Result: sounds authoritative → but conclusions are wrong for SilverBeES investors.
Line-by-line reality check
❌ “SilverBeES etc are leveraged ETFs”
Flat-out false.
Nippon India Silver ETF (SilverBeES) is:
Unleveraged
Tracks MCX silver prices
Uses 1:1 exposure via silver futures/physical equivalent
There is no 2x or 3x leverage in Indian silver ETFs.
If silver falls 10%, SilverBeES falls ~10% (tracking error aside).
Not 30%. Not zero. Not “wipeout”.
❌ “Heavy premium over spot = fake price”
Misleading framing.
What actually happens:
SilverBeES tracks MCX Silver (₹/kg)
MCX price = global spot × USDINR + duties + local demand
So when INR weakens or India demand spikes, MCX can outperform COMEX spot.
That’s not “fake premium”.
That’s currency + market structure.
⚠️ “Silver is manipulated”
Partly true — but irrelevant here.
Silver:
is thinner than gold
has higher futures positioning
is more volatile
But manipulation affects:
short-term futures
option sellers
leveraged traders
It does not magically destroy long-only ETFs.
❌ “Expect 50% crash in Indian silver ETFs”
This is the biggest BS claim.
For that to happen, one of these must occur:
Silver spot crashes 50% (hasn’t happened even in 2008)
USDINR strengthens massively and silver crashes
MCX decouples catastrophically from global silver
None are remotely visible right now.
This is doom extrapolation, not analysis.
Why such posts go viral
Because:
silver is volatile
people anchor to recent falls
fear narratives spread faster than math
Reddit loves “I warned you” posts
Same energy as:
“Gold ETFs are fake”
“Index funds will go to zero”
“Everything is manipulated”
Bottom line for YOU
Let me be very clear:
❌ SilverBeES is not leveraged
❌ There is no fake premium bubble
❌ A 50% ETF crash requires a global silver collapse
✅ Volatility is normal
✅ This post is noise, not signal.

They’re now generational investors who’ll be holding either for 15-20 years to come to the price they bought or will be booking losses. Those who traded in MCX on leverage, they only know the cost they ended up paying. I had too invested in silver but in bars at 45$ and I know I’m gonna keep it for 20-25 years. But people invested in FOMO at ATH for short term gain in greed. Silver to the moon!!

Gold and silver saw a sharp correction on Friday. Sharing some data points and perspective for discussion.
Gold MCX (April contract):
₹1,50,849 per 10g
Down ₹1,496 in a single session
\~16.5% below its lifetime high of ₹1,80,779
Silver MCX (March contract):
₹2,91,922 per kg
\~30% below its record high of ₹4,20,048
What’s contributing to the sell-off?
**1/** CME recently raised margins on copper to \~20%. Markets are pricing in the possibility of similar action for gold and silver, which often leads to short-term liquidation.
**2/** Recent developments around the US Fed leadership have strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated assets like precious metals.
**3**/ There is speculation that India’s Union Budget 2026 could reduce import duties on gold and silver, which may be adding near-term downside pressure.
**My Broader take**
This correction isn’t entirely unexpected. Both gold and silver were stretched after a strong run-up, and some cooling off was inevitable. Importantly, the long-term drivers remain intact:
* Global debt levels continue to rise
* Monetary expansion hasn’t reversed meaningfully
* Structural disruption from AI and automation is ongoing
* Real assets still play a role in portfolio protection
Short-term price action is driven by positioning and sentiment. Long-term outcomes are driven by fundamentals. I’m not suggesting anyone blindly buy or sell, allocation depends on risk appetite, time horizon, and portfolio structure. But historically, periods of sharp pessimism in hard assets have tended to offer better risk–reward than periods of euphoria.
Curious to hear how others here are viewing this move:
Adding gradually? Waiting for more clarity? Or avoiding commodities altogether?

I think even 200000 on MCX is not unrealistic.

MCX share will fall on Sunday and 91$ and above bulls have chance to cut bears! Let’s see who dominants long term!

1. Why did you invest first off? What are your reasons? Long term? Short term?
2. If long-term is the answer, then hold until things stabilize at least.
3. And probably next time, try to avoid FOMO. Focus on the asset allocation, reasons why you invest, etc., good learning experience ig

And track MCX Silver Futures and Spot prices of USD / Silver to understand better how it'll open on Sunday. Mostly will be LC. Best of luck.

Silver hit LC on MCX

MCX will be open on 1st from 9-5 I think

No they're not, MCX and CMC SILVER both down 27% lol