LU
Lufax Holding Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

The model provides a distribution of possible outcomes; it is not a prediction. It is probabilistic, not deterministic. While Dec 23rd stacked the probabilities towards an Up day, trading did not reach the characteristic with the highest probability, which was **LU at 38%.** This indicates an area of resistance, where Sellers were lurking on 12/23.

The Fearless Forecast for December 24, 2025 for DJIA is:
(SU = Small Up; LU = Large Up; SD = Small Down; LD = Large Down)
**Bucket**: Momentum
**Volatility score**: \~1.10
**Probabilities**: SU ≈ 30% LU ≈ 40% SD ≈ 18% LD ≈ 12%
**Expected return**: ≈ +0.35%
**Projected close**: \~48,450 to 48,780
**Directional bias:** ≈ 70% chance of an Up day
Previous DJIA close: 48,442.01
**DEC 23 :**  After an opening dip, Buyers got control and slowly but surely boosted the DJIA to the bottom of Dec 23rd's **Projected Close** range.  Sellers congregated there and spent the final 90 minutes eating away at the day's gains.  All in all, an UP day and a "correct" on The Fearless Forecast Scorecard.  (Currently, 6 of the last 7 forecasts have scored "correct", far above the 70% expected accuracy rate.)

The Fearless Forecast for December 23, 2025 for DJIA is:
(SU = Small Up; LU = Large Up; SD = Small Down; LD = Large Down)
* **Bucket**: Momentum
* **Volatility score**: \~1.12
* **Probabilities**: SU ≈ 33% LU ≈ 38% SD ≈ 17% LD ≈ 12%
* **Expected return**: ≈ +0.42%
* **Projected close**: \~48,520 to 48,850
* **Directional bias**: ≈ 71% chance of an Up day
Previous DJIA close: 48,362.68
**Dec 22:** Buyers took control at the open and maintained it throughout the session, in tune with the upbeat Forecast to Monday. In the 11 trading day since The Fearless Forecast made its public debut, it has been correct 8 times, a 72% win rate, slightly above the expected 70% win rate.

# Today is Monday, the 22nd of December
## Upcoming events for Monday, December 22nd
- Stock splits:
- GRLF @ **1:2500**
- INHD @ **1:24**
- PRPH @ **1:10**
- VSA @ **1:50**
- Expected earnings:
BNED, BRN, EBF, KNDI, LU, MSS, RICK, ZENV
- Ex-div:
AADR, ADAM, AGIX, AVGO, BBH, BJK, BSCQ, BSCR, BSCS, BSCT, BSCU, BSCV, BSCW, BSCX, BSCY, BSCZ, BSJQ, BSJR, BSJS, BSJT, BSJU, BSJV, BSJW, BSJX, BSMQ, BSMR, BSMS, BSMT, BSMU, BSMV, BSMW, BSMY, BSMZ, BSSX, BSVN, CA, CINF, CSGS, DWAW, DWSH, DWUS, ESLT, ESPO, EVMT, GAIN, GBLI, GDEN, GLAD, GLDI, GOOD, GOODN, GOODO, GOVI, GSM, IBBQ, IBOT, IHYF, IPKW, IUS, KBAB, KBWB, KBWD, KBWP, KBWR, KBWY, KMLI, KOID, KPDD, LAMR, LAND, LANDM, LANDO, LANDP, NEWT, NEWTP, PDBA, PDBC, PEY, PFI, PFM, PGJ, PHO, PID, PIE, PIO, PIZ, PKW, PRFZ, PSCC, PSCD, PSCE, PSCF, PSCI, PSCM, PSCU, PSL, PTH, PUI, PXI, PYZ, QOWZ, QQA, QQHG, QQJG, QQLV, QQMG, QQQ, QQQJ, QQQM, QQQS, QRMI, QYLD, QYLG, RTH, SLVO, SMH, SMHX, SOXQ, TSLQ, USOI, VONE, VONG, VONV, VOTE, VRIG, VTHR, VTWG, VTWO, VTWV, WHF, XCNY, YBST, YBTY
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, December 23rd
- Stock splits:
- AAUGF @ **1:10**
- AZURF @ **1:6**
- BOXL @ **1:6**
- CHR @ **1:50**
- KLGDF @ **1:4**
- TPL @ **3:1**
- TNMG @ **1:20**
- Expected earnings:
ATON, BHP, BNBX, BYFC, CCG, HUIZ, KEP, LCFY, LMNR, MDRR, PURR, REE, SIF, TAOX, VSTD, VWAV
- Ex-div:
BCPC, BNDP, HCKT, MRCC, QCRH
- Economic events and announcements:
- 3-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.560%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.495%)
- Chicago Fed National Activity (previous: -0.12)
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, December 24th
- Stock splits:
- RADLY @ **102:100**
- Expected earnings:
ALPS, ARBK, CODI, JBS, NAAS, PETS
- Ex-div:
BCAL, BFC, IMPPP, STX
- Economic events and announcements:
- 5-Year Note Auction (previous: 3.562%)
- 52-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.460%)
- ADP Employment Change Weekly (previous: 16.25K)
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (previous: -9.300M)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 3.5%, previous: 3.5%)
- Building Permits (consensus: 1.340M, previous: 1.330M)
- Building Permits (previous: -2.3%)
- CB Consumer Confidence (consensus: 91.7, previous: 88.7)
- CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (previous: -2.4K)
- CFTC Copper speculative net positions (previous: 62.5K)
- CFTC Corn speculative net positions (previous: 67.5K)
- CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (previous: 58.4K)
- CFTC Gold speculative net positions (previous: 223.9K)
- CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (previous: 48.1K)
- CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions (previous: -106.5K)
- CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (previous: -190.4K)
- CFTC Silver speculative net positions (previous: 44.7K)
- CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions (previous: 216.1K)
- CFTC Wheat speculative net positions (previous: -29.1K)
- Capacity Utilization Rate (consensus: 75.9%, previous: 75.9%)
- Core Durable Goods Orders (consensus: -1.4%, previous: 0.6%)
- Core PCE Price Index (previous: 0.2%)
- Core PCE Price Index (previous: 2.8%)
- Core PCE Prices (consensus: 2.90%, previous: 2.60%)
- Corporate Profits (previous: 0.2%)
- Dallas Fed PCE (previous: 1.90%)
- Durable Goods Orders (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.5%)
- Durables Excluding Defense (previous: 0.1%)
- GDP (consensus: 3.2%, previous: 3.8%)
- GDP Price Index (consensus: 2.6%, previous: 2.1%)
- GDP Sales (previous: 7.5%)
- Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (previous: 0.9%)
- Housing Starts (consensus: 1.320M, previous: 1.307M)
- Housing Starts (previous: -8.5%)
- Industrial Production (consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.1%)
- Industrial Production (previous: 1.62%)
- M2 Money Supply (previous: 22.30T)
- Manufacturing Production (previous: 0.0%)
- New Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- New Home Sales (previous: 20.5%)
- New Home Sales (previous: 800K)
- PCE Price index (previous: 2.8%)
- PCE Prices (consensus: 2.9%, previous: 2.1%)
- PCE price index (previous: 0.3%)
- Personal Income (previous: 0.4%)
- Personal Spending (previous: 0.3%)
- Real Consumer Spending (previous: 2.5%)
- Real Personal Consumption (previous: 0.0%)
- Redbook (previous: 6.2%)
- Richmond Manufacturing Index (consensus: -7, previous: -15)
- Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (previous: -14)
- Richmond Services Index (previous: -4)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, December 25th
- Expected earnings:
ASST, AXIA, AXIA^, BTCT, CIO, CMBM, GHG, GTIM, IH, ILLR, ISOU, KIDZ, LASE, LPL, MAXN, NBP, NFE, NHIC, YJ
- Economic events and announcements:
- 4-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.585%)
- 7-Year Note Auction (previous: 3.781%)
- 8-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.580%)
- Continuing Jobless Claims (previous: 1,897K)
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: -0.719M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -1.274M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -0.742M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: -0.228M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: 0.128M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: 1.712M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: 0.3%)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: 4.808M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: 0.033M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: 0.267M)
- Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 220K, previous: 224K)
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (previous: 217.50K)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.38%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: -3.8%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 176.5)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 315.6)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 1,148.3)
- Natural Gas Storage (previous: -167B)
- United States - Christmas - Early close at 13:00
^^^^2025-12-22