JCP
J.C. Penny Inc (Holding Co.)
stock NYSE

JCP and BBBY never had a book value below liquidation levels

Interesting points, but a few things don’t quite add up

If their real estate is really worth $6B, why did they just raise $360M in senior secured debt backed by distribution centers? And not at favorable terms either — they went from ~4% rates to over 9%. That sounds more like liquidity strain than optional flexibility.

As for diversification away from China — the latest 10-K still states “a majority of sourcing is through third-party vendors in China and Southeast Asia.” If you’ve got updated sourcing data, I’d genuinely be curious to see it.
And “everything is priced in” feels shaky when:
Dividend was cut
CEO was ousted after 100 days
Board-level governance issues triggered an 8-K
Forecasted sales are negative for 2025
Short interest is now over 51%
That doesn’t look like a deep value setup. It looks like a distressed unwind.
I’m not trying to be contrarian for the sake of it, I’m genuinely trying to understand the bull thesis here. Is it just a real estate liquidation play? Because that means less stores and kind of like “selling the furniture to keep the lights on” Or is there a belief that operations can rebound and drive meaningful upside?
If there’s a case for growth or stability, I’d love to see how that’s being modeled, especially with comps like JCP and BBBY fresh in mind.

The De Minimis change might hurt SHEIN, but is there any reason to believe those shoppers would default to Kohl’s? Fast-fashion customers aren’t necessarily looking for mid-tier department store pricing or style.
Real estate value yes but they’re not a real estate company liquidating is a red flag no?
1. Even if their CRE portfolio is sizable, how liquid is it really? Selling off real estate to stay afloat isn’t typically a bullish sign — it’s usually a last resort. JCP and BBBY had property too, and it didn’t save them.
Also, commercial real estate as a whole is under pressure — interest rates have doubled since 2020–2021, and a wall of debt is coming due. Some are calling for a crash in that sector. Timing matters.
2. The 8-K filing raised serious governance concerns. A board member openly contradicted Kohl’s SEC disclosure. That’s not just bad optics — for certain institutional holders, it can trigger mandatory compliance-based exits.
3. Tariffs are another major risk. With a large portion of their inventory coming from China, even modest tariff increases could severely impact margins. It’s hard to imagine a turnaround when cost pressure is rising and sales are already in decline.
Again, just trying to make sense of the bullish outlook here when the structural issues governance, cash flow, cost pressure all seem to be pointing the other direction.
Do you see this becoming a booming company again? Retail that deals with china is under serious pressure right now… target and macys might make it but kohls… idk

could be wrong but this smells like BBBY and JCP all over again, except this time with lying to the SEC, CEO fraud, and now governance risk called out in the filings.
They can’t survive tariffs. Trump being a real estate guy probably sees these dying big box retailers as dead weight sitting on prime land that needs to be repurposed. Out with the old, in with the new.
I think May 29 when earnings hit, major institutions will use that high volume window to quietly exit. Not a buyout. An exodus.

JCP and BBBY never had a book value below liquidation levels

Interesting points, but a few things don’t quite add up

If their real estate is really worth $6B, why did they just raise $360M in senior secured debt backed by distribution centers? And not at favorable terms either — they went from ~4% rates to over 9%. That sounds more like liquidity strain than optional flexibility.

As for diversification away from China — the latest 10-K still states “a majority of sourcing is through third-party vendors in China and Southeast Asia.” If you’ve got updated sourcing data, I’d genuinely be curious to see it.
And “everything is priced in” feels shaky when:
Dividend was cut
CEO was ousted after 100 days
Board-level governance issues triggered an 8-K
Forecasted sales are negative for 2025
Short interest is now over 51%
That doesn’t look like a deep value setup. It looks like a distressed unwind.
I’m not trying to be contrarian for the sake of it, I’m genuinely trying to understand the bull thesis here. Is it just a real estate liquidation play? Because that means less stores and kind of like “selling the furniture to keep the lights on” Or is there a belief that operations can rebound and drive meaningful upside?
If there’s a case for growth or stability, I’d love to see how that’s being modeled, especially with comps like JCP and BBBY fresh in mind.

The De Minimis change might hurt SHEIN, but is there any reason to believe those shoppers would default to Kohl’s? Fast-fashion customers aren’t necessarily looking for mid-tier department store pricing or style.
Real estate value yes but they’re not a real estate company liquidating is a red flag no?
1. Even if their CRE portfolio is sizable, how liquid is it really? Selling off real estate to stay afloat isn’t typically a bullish sign — it’s usually a last resort. JCP and BBBY had property too, and it didn’t save them.
Also, commercial real estate as a whole is under pressure — interest rates have doubled since 2020–2021, and a wall of debt is coming due. Some are calling for a crash in that sector. Timing matters.
2. The 8-K filing raised serious governance concerns. A board member openly contradicted Kohl’s SEC disclosure. That’s not just bad optics — for certain institutional holders, it can trigger mandatory compliance-based exits.
3. Tariffs are another major risk. With a large portion of their inventory coming from China, even modest tariff increases could severely impact margins. It’s hard to imagine a turnaround when cost pressure is rising and sales are already in decline.
Again, just trying to make sense of the bullish outlook here when the structural issues governance, cash flow, cost pressure all seem to be pointing the other direction.
Do you see this becoming a booming company again? Retail that deals with china is under serious pressure right now… target and macys might make it but kohls… idk

could be wrong but this smells like BBBY and JCP all over again, except this time with lying to the SEC, CEO fraud, and now governance risk called out in the filings.
They can’t survive tariffs. Trump being a real estate guy probably sees these dying big box retailers as dead weight sitting on prime land that needs to be repurposed. Out with the old, in with the new.
I think May 29 when earnings hit, major institutions will use that high volume window to quietly exit. Not a buyout. An exodus.