CTB
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
stock NYSE

I’m refining a more disciplined approach to identifying actual short-squeeze setups, not just low-float momentum names. I’m not looking for tickers or trade ideas. I’m interested in which metrics and structural conditions consistently matter and which ones tend to be misleading.
Below is the framework I currently use. Posting this to compare methodologies and stress-test assumptions.
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1. Short Interest as a % of True Tradable Float
Headline SI% is often meaningless without validating the float.
What I try to adjust for:
• Insider-locked shares
• Strategic holders / PIPEs
• Recent reverse splits
• Redemptions or share cancellations
• Misreported float data post-corporate actions
Key question:
What percentage of shares can realistically be bought in the open market?
I generally don’t consider SI meaningful unless it exceeds 20–30% of adjusted free float, and even then only if the float itself is verifiably tight.
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2. Cost to Borrow (CTB): Level + Persistence
CTB is no longer a signal by itself — persistence matters more than magnitude.
What I look for:
• Elevated CTB sustained over multiple sessions
• Rising CTB while price holds or grinds higher
• Borrow not normalizing during pullbacks
Shorts can tolerate high CTB briefly. They struggle when it stays elevated and liquidity doesn’t improve.
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3. Short Share Availability (Supply Stress Indicator)
Availability approaching zero and staying there is one of the few near-real-time indicators of stress.
More important than a single zero reading:
• Repeated intraday borrow exhaustion
• Limited replenishment
• Availability declining while volume increases
This metric becomes far more relevant when paired with stable price action.
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4. Days to Cover (Context Matters)
DTC is often misused. High DTC only matters in low-liquidity environments.
The combination I watch for:
• Thin average daily volume
• High short interest
• Elevated DTC relative to float size
In that context, even modest volume spikes can materially impact price due to forced demand.
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5. Price Action Relative to Short Metrics
One of the strongest non-quantitative tells:
• High SI + high CTB
• Low borrow availability
• Price refuses to break down
Examples include:
• Failed breakdowns at key levels
• Higher lows despite increasing short exposure
• Compression while borrow conditions worsen
This often signals diminishing control by shorts before any visible unwind occurs.
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6. Structural Risk and Dilution Filters (Pass/Fail)
Most “squeeze” setups fail here.
I treat the following as disqualifiers unless clearly resolved:
• Active S-1 / resale registration
• ATM programs
• Near-term insider unlocks
• Convertible structures with variable pricing
• History of opportunistic dilution
If supply can expand easily, borrow pressure becomes irrelevant.
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7. Catalyst and Timing Constraints
Even perfect structure doesn’t squeeze without urgency.
Catalysts that matter structurally:
• Redemption events reducing float
• Lockup expirations or confirmation of none
• Unexpected filings or PR
• Regulatory or listing-related pressure
• Forced covering events (margin, recall, rebalances)
Without a timing mechanism, shorts can often wait indefinitely.
Open Questions for Discussion:
• Which metric has the highest predictive value in your experience?
• Which signals generate the most false positives?
• Do you actively monitor intraday borrow dynamics or rely on daily data?
• Are there structural indicators you use as hard disqualifiers?
• Any tools or datasets you’ve found consistently reliable?
Not advocating any strategy here just trying to refine a repeatable, evidence-based framework and avoid the common traps. Interested in hearing how others approach this from a data and structure standpoint.

Ticker SVRE keep this on watch for Monday and the week ahead. Has a nice gap to fill over $2 break. 900k float, 300%+ CTB and 0 borrow.

SVRE life-saving tech named best tech of 2025 for saving many lives! Company’s recent move into defense and security innovation, huge deal. One of those hidden gems in small caps. As of now Float is just 900k, over 300%+ CTB and basically 0 borrow. Keep it on watch for next week, Strong Close Friday

BNAI has been at the top.of the squeeze leaderboard for a few days I believe. This could continue to go.for a few days. 470% CTB 42% Short interest. Will definitely be keeping an eye.