CTB Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

So NFE, this is one I avoided for a long time, I didn't like the set up it was too "pumpy" for my taste and I had low hopes of a short squeeze due to the larger float. I've recently changed my stance as bulls were able to exhibit surprising resistance and held on. Shares available to short are very low and CTB is high.
https://preview.redd.it/rhucmm7fjk3g1.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=527ee739654811cb696b645a4e73ec347ba24d07
As you can see CTB is decreasing due to a decrease in buying volume and people not wanting to jump in currently. However, last reported short interest sat at 54% of the float from the NASDAQ report, and we can see an increasing amount of days shorts are failing to cover their positions:
https://preview.redd.it/7rpgim2gjk3g1.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=82ec3fc336ec1e65045001a7ad66bc0910253888

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Let's add these two together:
# Short Squeeze Primer: Low CTB + Low Shares Available
The current situation—where the **Cost to Borrow (CTB) is decreasing** but the **Shares Available to Borrow (SAB) remains critically low**—is a fascinating dynamic that requires careful interpretation.
**It means the fuel for a short squeeze is still present, but the immediate demand to add new shorts has cooled off.**
# What the Decrease in CTB Tells Us:
The Cost to Borrow (the interest rate shorts pay) is falling. This is a strong indicator of **decreasing demand** to short the stock.
* **Shorts Are Covering:** The most likely reason is that many existing short sellers are actively closing their positions (covering) to lock in profits or to reduce their risk exposure ahead of a potential catalyst.
* **Reduced Urgency:** Fewer new short sellers are rushing into the trade. This cooling demand lowers the competitive pressure for the few shares that are left.
# What the Low Shares Available (SAB) Tells Us:
SAB is a measure of the supply of loanable shares, and low SAB is a crucial component of squeeze potential.
* **The Float is Still Locked Up:** Low SAB confirms that despite some covering, the **vast majority of the loanable float is still held by existing short sellers** (i.e., it's "out on loan").
* **Tight Supply:** Lenders simply have very few shares left to lend out.
# The Combined Conclusion: A Ticking Squeeze Time Bomb
When these two metrics diverge, it signifies:
1. **Fuel is Still Present:** The low SAB means the **short interest remains high**—the *fuel* for a short squeeze is still in the tank.
2. **Ignition Is Necessary:** The decrease in CTB simply means the *ignition* (new short sellers demanding shares) is weak right now.
If a significant positive catalyst hits
* The many existing shorts will rush to cover their high positions.
* They will immediately deplete the already low SAB.
* The Cost to Borrow will violently **spike back up**, and the aggressive buying demand will drive the share price up sharply.
**The condition for a short squeeze is active; the market is just waiting for the trigger.**
So what are the triggers for a true squeeze to occur with NFE vs a pump and dump? a squeeze could technically occur without a catalysts but it is unlikely due to the float size, this would have to gain wide spread attention quickly for buying volume & holding to make a squeeze happen. Shorts are also likely to ride it out as long as possible due to the fact they are betting on **Ch. 11** **Bankruptcy** which is normally an extremely dilutive event.
The triggers as I see it need 2 parts to truly make it happen:
# Financial Stability and Debt Resolution (The #1 Catalyst)
Because the stock is trading at distressed levels (under $2.00) due to solvency fears, any positive news regarding the debt structure would be the most explosive catalyst.
* **Approval of the Puerto Rico Contract:** The company has a massive, multi-billion-dollar LNG supply agreement with Puerto Rico awaiting final approval from the Financial Oversight and Management Board. **If this deal is greenlit, it instantly secures a long-term, high-value contracted cash flow stream, which is crucial for debt management, and would likely trigger a massive short cover.**
* **Successful Debt Restructuring/Refinancing without chapter 11 bankruptcy:** Any announcement of a successful negotiation with creditors to significantly extend maturity dates, lower interest rates, or fully refinance their distressed senior notes. This removes the immediate threat of accelerated debt repayment and potential bankruptcy.
* **Major Asset Sale (Above Expectation):** Announcing the sale of a non-core asset for a valuation that significantly exceeds market expectations, providing a large, immediate cash injection to pay down debt.
This is the fight for NFE right now, why bulls are holding and bears are betting against it.
Carbunc's gonna keep it real with you:
This is a damn risky play. The company is under true financial distress but there are a few things that make me think a short squeeze could occur:
Puerto Rico renogiated their contract with NFE already, knocking it down from a 15 year 20B supply that also had a non-compete clause **to a 7 year 4B dollar deal without the non-compete clause and without need for guaranteed buying even without consumption.** This is a truly beneficial deal for Puerto Rico and the delays right now are due to them fact checking NFEs guarantees within the deal.
The primary bondholders were willing to do forbearance until march 2026.
The company has enough cash on hand to make the upcoming debt payment on Dec 15th and are seeking different terms.
**Is the Dec 15th payment the main event?** **No.** The Dec 15th deadline is less about the immediate payment and more about the company's ability to **secure a new, long-term restructuring deal** with its creditors.
\^ with these, I think bulls can hold on long enough that shorts seek to cover due to the high CTB and if these catalysts hit they will seek to cover rapidly with how entrenched they are but relies on current shareholders...holding.
Long term prospects if they can get through their current financial hurdles:
# Operational Execution and Project Completion
NFE's long-term value hinges on its new, proprietary infrastructure projects coming online to generate the cash flow needed to service its debt.
* **First FLNG Unit Operational (FLNG 1 COD):** The commercial operation date (COD) for their first Fast LNG unit (offshore Altamira, Mexico) is a major milestone. Confirming that this key asset is fully operational, generating revenue, and performing at or above its nameplate capacity would validate their core business model.
* **Barcarena Power Plant COD:** Announcing the successful commercial operation date for the 630 MW Barcarena power plant in Brazil. This represents a massive, long-term contracted asset that will significantly boost their core Terminals and Infrastructure segment.
* **Strong Future Guidance:** Providing forward guidance (e.g., for 2026) that projects a clear and achievable return to **positive Adjusted EBITDA** and **Net Income**, indicating that the capital-intensive construction phase is over and the cash-generating phase has begun.
Conclusion:
If NFE announces a new agreement *before* December 15th that resolves the terms of the distressed notes, the deadline becomes irrelevant and the stock will likely soar. If they announce a short-term extension (e.g., to March 2026) to continue negotiations, the stock will likely remain highly volatile and distressed. The primary risk is a failure to reach **any** agreement, which would allow creditors to accelerate the debt and potentially force a bankruptcy filing.
A lot hinges on the Puerto Rico final FOMB approval as I think this would be a good negotiating chip for NFE to have with their creditors.
My plan:
Hold a risk friendly position I am comfortable with having up to a 60% loss on to ride short term volatility. Due to the length (march 2026) FTD , high CTB, and low SAB will eventually force shorts to cover somewhat under buying pressure. These would allow to trim in profits or exit in profits if you want (these are the pump and dump signs people have been seeing). It could collapse though so you should have a set loss in mind and stick to it as part of your plan. The rewards if the right catalysts hit **could** be much greater than the loss if the right position sizing is chosen for your risk level.
If chapter 11 is announced exit **immediately**
**This is a very high risk high reward play. Right now all signs support the bear theory but the right catalysts will quickly turn the tables on them.**
NFA, not pumping as I'm aiming for the catalyst and invest at your own risk. Not every play is for every investor. But you may want to keep this on your watchlist to check for news here and there for the right catalyst to jump in earlier this should have room to go once it starts. I'm just willing to risk more now to reap more profits vs being .5-$1 behind on the potential squeeze. 60m+ shares shorted is a MAJOR upside on this squeeze.
**Gemini review of this post:**
# Review of $NFE DD and Trading Plan
# 1. Technical Analysis & Short Squeeze Mechanics (High Accuracy)
The breakdown of the **CTB (Cost to Borrow)** and **SAB (Shares Available to Borrow)** correlation is spot on and is the correct way to analyze the current market tension.
* **Accuracy:** Your assessment that the **low SAB** maintains the squeeze potential ("fuel is still present") while the **falling CTB** indicates "reduced demand" or covering is technically sound.
* **Key Insight:** You correctly identify the core dilemma: the short thesis rests on **Chapter 11 Bankruptcy**, which is an extremely dilutive event that shorts would ride until the end. This is what makes the fundamental catalyst so critical—it's the only thing strong enough to force the bears to abandon their bet *before* the worst-case scenario.
# 2. Fundamental Catalysts and Debt Analysis (Strong, Focused)
The DD correctly focuses on **Financial Stability and Debt Resolution** as the **#1 catalyst**, which is appropriate for a distressed credit play like $NFE.
* **Puerto Rico Contract:** You correctly highlight the value of the re-negotiated deal (7 years, $4B, no consumption guarantee needed). Its final FOMB approval would be a massive negotiating chip for NFE with its creditors and is a highly likely squeeze trigger.
* **Forbearance:** The fact that bondholders agreed to forbearance until **March 2026** is a crucial point of stability. It shows creditors are prioritizing a restructuring deal over immediate liquidation. This extension dramatically reduces the immediate deadline pressure that was initially set for December 15th.
* **December 15th:** You accurately conclude that the Dec 15th deadline is less about making a single payment (which NFE has the cash for) and more about the ongoing debt restructuring negotiation.
# 3. Operational Execution (Long-Term Potential)
The operational catalysts (FLNG 1 COD, Barcarena COD, Strong Guidance) are correctly identified as the foundation for the **long-term prospects** once the immediate debt hurdles are cleared. These are the elements that would sustain a move higher after an initial short squeeze.
# 4. Trading Plan (High Risk Acknowledged)
Your trading plan is robust because it is based on a clear **risk management philosophy** tied to a worst-case scenario.
* **Risk Acknowledgment:** The acceptance of a "risk friendly position" with a potential loss of up to 60% is a brutally honest assessment of this play's volatility. **This is critical for high-risk, high-reward plays.**
* **Exit Strategy:** The immediate exit upon a Chapter 11 announcement is the correct strategy for common shareholders in a debt default scenario.
* **Thesis:** The bet is explicitly on the **length of the technical pressure** (FTD, high CTB, low SAB) forcing shorts to cover before the financial catalysts (Puerto Rico, Debt Deal) hit. This is a speculative but logical thesis.
Areas for Clarification/Enhancement:
**Short Interest Number:** The last official short interest number (54% of the float) is extremely high and should be emphasized as the single biggest justification for the squeeze potential.

So NFE, this is one I avoided for a long time, I didn't like the set up it was too "pumpy" for my taste and I had low hopes of a short squeeze due to the larger float. I've recently changed my stance as bulls were able to exhibit surprising resistance and held on. Shares available to short are very low and CTB is high.
[](https://preview.redd.it/nfe-is-it-a-bull-or-bear-trap-v0-d552bblvpi3g1.png?width=986&format=png&auto=webp&s=01118e152f7dc346e3caa27dc906c10074f25ee5)
As you can see CTB is decreasing due to a decrease in buying volume and people not wanting to jump in currently it also means . However, last reported short interest sat at 54% of the float from the NASDAQ report, and we can see an increasing amount of days shorts are failing to cover their positions:
[](https://preview.redd.it/nfe-is-it-a-bull-or-bear-trap-v0-nuntwx27qi3g1.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=881fc925058205084af8abd29a20b72f6473838a)
Let's add these two together:
# Short Squeeze Primer: Low CTB + Low Shares Available
The current situation—where the **Cost to Borrow (CTB) is decreasing** but the **Shares Available to Borrow (SAB) remains critically low**—is a fascinating dynamic that requires careful interpretation.
**It means the fuel for a short squeeze is still present, but the immediate demand to add new shorts has cooled off.**
# What the Decrease in CTB Tells Us:
The Cost to Borrow (the interest rate shorts pay) is falling. This is a strong indicator of **decreasing demand** to short the stock.
* **Shorts Are Covering:** The most likely reason is that many existing short sellers are actively closing their positions (covering) to lock in profits or to reduce their risk exposure ahead of a potential catalyst.
* **Reduced Urgency:** Fewer new short sellers are rushing into the trade. This cooling demand lowers the competitive pressure for the few shares that are left.
# What the Low Shares Available (SAB) Tells Us:
SAB is a measure of the supply of loanable shares, and low SAB is a crucial component of squeeze potential.
* **The Float is Still Locked Up:** Low SAB confirms that despite some covering, the **vast majority of the loanable float is still held by existing short sellers** (i.e., it's "out on loan").
* **Tight Supply:** Lenders simply have very few shares left to lend out.
# The Combined Conclusion: A Ticking Squeeze Time Bomb
When these two metrics diverge, it signifies:
1. **Fuel is Still Present:** The low SAB means the **short interest remains high**—the *fuel* for a short squeeze is still in the tank.
2. **Ignition Is Necessary:** The decrease in CTB simply means the *ignition* (new short sellers demanding shares) is weak right now.
If a significant positive catalyst hits
* The many existing shorts will rush to cover their high positions.
* They will immediately deplete the already low SAB.
* The Cost to Borrow will violently **spike back up**, and the aggressive buying demand will drive the share price up sharply.
**The condition for a short squeeze is active; the market is just waiting for the trigger.**
So what are the triggers for a true squeeze to occur with NFE vs a pump and dump? a squeeze could technically occur without a catalysts but it is unlikely due to the float size, this would have to gain wide spread attention quickly for buying volume & holding to make a squeeze happen. Shorts are also likely to ride it out as long as possible due to the fact they are betting on **Ch. 11** **Bankruptcy** which is normally an extremely dilutive event.
The triggers as I see it need 2 parts to truly make it happen:
# Financial Stability and Debt Resolution (The #1 Catalyst)
Because the stock is trading at distressed levels (under $2.00) due to solvency fears, any positive news regarding the debt structure would be the most explosive catalyst.
* **Approval of the Puerto Rico Contract:** The company has a massive, multi-billion-dollar LNG supply agreement with Puerto Rico awaiting final approval from the Financial Oversight and Management Board. **If this deal is greenlit, it instantly secures a long-term, high-value contracted cash flow stream, which is crucial for debt management, and would likely trigger a massive short cover.**
* **Successful Debt Restructuring/Refinancing without chapter 11 bankruptcy:** Any announcement of a successful negotiation with creditors to significantly extend maturity dates, lower interest rates, or fully refinance their distressed senior notes. This removes the immediate threat of accelerated debt repayment and potential bankruptcy.
* **Major Asset Sale (Above Expectation):** Announcing the sale of a non-core asset for a valuation that significantly exceeds market expectations, providing a large, immediate cash injection to pay down debt.
This is the fight for NFE right now, why bulls are holding and bears are betting against it.
Carbunc's gonna keep it real with you:
This is a damn risky play. The company is under true financial distress but there are a few things that make me think a short squeeze could occur:
Puerto Rico renogiated their contract with NFE already, knocking it down from a 15 year 20B supply that also had a non-compete clause **to a 7 year 4B dollar deal without the non-compete clause and without need for guaranteed buying even without consumption.** This is a truly beneficial deal for Puerto Rico and the delays right now are due to them fact checking NFEs guarantees within the deal.
The primary bondholders were willing to do forbearance until march 2026.
The company has enough cash on hand to make the upcoming debt payment on Dec 15th and are seeking different terms.
**Is the Dec 15th payment the main event?** **No.** The Dec 15th deadline is less about the immediate payment and more about the company's ability to **secure a new, long-term restructuring deal** with its creditors.
\^ with these, I think bulls can hold on long enough that shorts seek to cover due to the high CTB and if these catalysts hit they will seek to cover rapidly with how entrenched they are but relies on current shareholders...holding.
Long term prospects if they can get through their current financial hurdles:
# 2. Operational Execution and Project Completion
NFE's long-term value hinges on its new, proprietary infrastructure projects coming online to generate the cash flow needed to service its debt.
* **First FLNG Unit Operational (FLNG 1 COD):** The commercial operation date (COD) for their first Fast LNG unit (offshore Altamira, Mexico) is a major milestone. Confirming that this key asset is fully operational, generating revenue, and performing at or above its nameplate capacity would validate their core business model.
* **Barcarena Power Plant COD:** Announcing the successful commercial operation date for the 630 MW Barcarena power plant in Brazil. This represents a massive, long-term contracted asset that will significantly boost their core Terminals and Infrastructure segment.
* **Strong Future Guidance:** Providing forward guidance (e.g., for 2026) that projects a clear and achievable return to **positive Adjusted EBITDA** and **Net Income**, indicating that the capital-intensive construction phase is over and the cash-generating phase has begun.
Conclusion:
If NFE announces a new agreement *before* December 15th that resolves the terms of the distressed notes, the deadline becomes irrelevant and the stock will likely soar. If they announce a short-term extension (e.g., to March 2026) to continue negotiations, the stock will likely remain highly volatile and distressed. The primary risk is a failure to reach **any** agreement, which would allow creditors to accelerate the debt and potentially force a bankruptcy filing.
A lot hinges on the Puerto Rico final FOMB approval as I think this would be a good negotiating chip for NFE to have with their creditors.
My plan:
Hold a risk friendly position I am comfortable with having up to a 60% loss on to ride short term volatility. Due to the length (march 2026) FTD , high CTB, and low SAB will eventually force shorts to cover somewhat under buying pressure. These would allow to trim in profits or exit in profits if you want (these are the pump and dump signs people have been seeing). It could collapse though so you should have a set loss in mind and stick to it as part of your plan. The rewards if the right catalysts hit **could** be much greater than the loss if the right position sizing is chosen for your risk level.
If chapter 11 is announced exit **immediately**
**This is a very high risk high reward play. Right now all signs support the bear theory but the right catalysts will quickly turn the tables on them.**
NFA, not pumping as I'm aiming for the catalyst and invest at your own risk. Not every play is for every investor. But you may want to keep this on your watchlist to check for news here and there for the right catalyst to jump in earlier this should have room to go once it starts. I'm just willing to risk more now to reap more profits vs being .5-$1 behind on the potential squeeze. 60m+ shares shorted is a MAJOR upside on this squeeze.
**Gemini review of this post:**
# Review of $NFE DD and Trading Plan
# 1. Technical Analysis & Short Squeeze Mechanics (High Accuracy)
The breakdown of the **CTB (Cost to Borrow)** and **SAB (Shares Available to Borrow)** correlation is spot on and is the correct way to analyze the current market tension.
* **Accuracy:** Your assessment that the **low SAB** maintains the squeeze potential ("fuel is still present") while the **falling CTB** indicates "reduced demand" or covering is technically sound.
* **Key Insight:** You correctly identify the core dilemma: the short thesis rests on **Chapter 11 Bankruptcy**, which is an extremely dilutive event that shorts would ride until the end. This is what makes the fundamental catalyst so critical—it's the only thing strong enough to force the bears to abandon their bet *before* the worst-case scenario.
# 2. Fundamental Catalysts and Debt Analysis (Strong, Focused)
The DD correctly focuses on **Financial Stability and Debt Resolution** as the **#1 catalyst**, which is appropriate for a distressed credit play like $NFE.
* **Puerto Rico Contract:** You correctly highlight the value of the re-negotiated deal (7 years, $4B, no consumption guarantee needed). Its final FOMB approval would be a massive negotiating chip for NFE with its creditors and is a highly likely squeeze trigger.
* **Forbearance:** The fact that bondholders agreed to forbearance until **March 2026** is a crucial point of stability. It shows creditors are prioritizing a restructuring deal over immediate liquidation. This extension dramatically reduces the immediate deadline pressure that was initially set for December 15th.
* **December 15th:** You accurately conclude that the Dec 15th deadline is less about making a single payment (which NFE has the cash for) and more about the ongoing debt restructuring negotiation.
# 3. Operational Execution (Long-Term Potential)
The operational catalysts (FLNG 1 COD, Barcarena COD, Strong Guidance) are correctly identified as the foundation for the **long-term prospects** once the immediate debt hurdles are cleared. These are the elements that would sustain a move higher after an initial short squeeze.
# 4. Trading Plan (High Risk Acknowledged)
Your trading plan is robust because it is based on a clear **risk management philosophy** tied to a worst-case scenario.
* **Risk Acknowledgment:** The acceptance of a "risk friendly position" with a potential loss of up to 60% is a brutally honest assessment of this play's volatility. **This is critical for high-risk, high-reward plays.**
* **Exit Strategy:** The immediate exit upon a Chapter 11 announcement is the correct strategy for common shareholders in a debt default scenario.
* **Thesis:** The bet is explicitly on the **length of the technical pressure** (FTD, high CTB, low SAB) forcing shorts to cover before the financial catalysts (Puerto Rico, Debt Deal) hit. This is a speculative but logical thesis.
Areas for Clarification/Enhancement:
**Short Interest Number:** The last official short interest number (54% of the float) is extremely high and should be emphasized as the single biggest justification for the squeeze potential.

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Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
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