ALLW
SSGA Active Trust State Street Bridgewater All Weather ETF
stock NASDAQ ETF

Thanks for the suggestion. I hold some RPAR which is very similar but has a lower expense ratio ALLW 0.85 vs RPAR 0.51

I'm about your age, and have worked in equities on wall street and bay street. I've looked into all hedging options, and its actually very expensive, even if you only selectively deploy hedges during times of elevated uncertainty, so I wouldn't recommend it. Drawdowns are scary, but they will not delay your retirement unless they happen to occur precisely when you retire.
You are actually at the perfect age to withstand them, so I wouldn't recommend doing much of anything, in fact, if a large drawdown occurs within the next 5 years, hopefully you have the wherewithal to increase your contributions.
All that said, I'd recommend taking a look at the SPDR Bridgewater All Weather ETF (ALLW). This is a recently available fund offered by one of the best hedge funds in the world, based on a strategy Bridgewater has successfully run for nearly 30 years. It is specifically designed maximize risk adjusted returns, and minimize drawdowns. During 2008 (it was only available to private investors at this time), the worst drawdown for this strategy was -4%, vs the s&p -55%. It is quantitatively designed for a max drawdown of 6-12%. That said, the annualized return is more like 8%, compared to 11% over the same period for the S&P, so it will underperform in bull markets, albeit with significantly lower volatility.

ALLW

Hello,
For context:
* Mid 30s
* No dependents
* \~600k in hysa/sgov/icsh (until recently was uneducated, but was always a saver)
* \~200k in rollover ira/old 401ks/current 401k
* \~40k in below portfolio
* I dollar cost average my paycheck in with weekly buys
TLDR: For my growth bucket, do I really need to capture multiple factors (growth/value/global/metals/commodities/futures) or is just "buy growth" and chill still going to outperform over time? I'm struggling to know what to buy each week.
Long story short, I'm in the same boat as many other white collar workers where AI + outsourcing is threatening my career path. This has forced me to shift my mindset from a traditional approach to a early cashflow need.
I'm roughly predicting a 2-3 yr time-frame before it's seriously a threat for me (if AI continues this pace of evolution). I'm aware that's really not enough time for me to compound to a full solution, but I need to start anyway while I research other options/career pivots. There's also the threat of mass layoffs dragging down the entire market+flooding other trades, breaking the backup plans. I'm also trying to hedge against a potential AI bubble pop as best I can.
I'm splitting my port into 60% growth 40% cashflow. It's the growth portion that I'm wanting to focus on atm. I may be over-engineering things I believe. I've gone deep down the risk parity rabbit hole and back up.
Originally I was going to just buy VOO and call it a day, but I'm seeing trends such as shift to global and value vs growth. At the moment my core non-income bucket looks like this:
* SPYG - US Growth (Heavy tech exposure)
* CGDV - US Value (Moderately less tech exposure)
* SCHD - US Value\\Div
* IDVO - Global Growth\\Value\\Div
* GVAL - Global Value
* KGLD - Gold (So far has beaten underlying, may add IAU)
I'm debating adding AVUV for small cap exposure, and DBMF for Managed Futures. DBMF has 100% margin requirement at my broker which is a big negative. Also maybe more commodities. Waiting for an entry on O as well.
The allocation percentage between the positions is fluid as I'm trying to figure out if I should equal weight or overweight based on current trends (value/global).
I was also experimenting with this build so I do hold some of these tickers. 20% each:
* ORR - US+Global long short w/value
* ALLW - Ray Dalio style all weather fund
* RSST - SP500 + Managed Futures
* GVAL - Global Value
* GLTR - Metals
The issue with those funds is many have very high margin maintenance requirements, very new, high expense ratios, and complex. They were doing well until the Iran conflict smacked the global exposure they have hard. Though ALLW is handling it ok.
So in reality, I'm simultaneously building two different style "growth" buckets due to the confusion in the market. I'm starting to lean to the first build I posted for simplicity.
Yes it's messy but I'm building it as I go. The cashflow bucket is a work in progress as well, but my plans are a mix of covered call (heaviest in spyi/qqqi) and cefs targeting 10% yield. Plus dividend tickers like schd, bac etc. I think I more or less know the pros/cons of my income bucket. I'm not dumping that 600k bulk into the market because highly volatile and I need 2+ yrs of living expenses if career gets replaced.
I've been struggling to know what to buy each week with everything falling. Lean into value? Global? Any thoughts anyone has about building a robust growth bucket in times of confusion is welcome.