BTCUSDT20240407P62500
Bitcoin / Tether USD Apr 7 2024 62500.00 Put
crypto

BTC 100%

Don't feel bad. I spent 6 BTC on pizza, wings, and some desserts once back in 2011.

Total altcoin market cap is $1.73 trillion. The two largest stablecoins make up $246 billion of that so really it’s $1.48 trillion minus stablecoins.
The altcoins captured in real BTC dominance (minus stablecoins) have a cumulative market cap of ~$1 trillion with the only notable larger altcoin which isn’t included being BNB. I do think BNB should be included as well but other than that minor adjustment it does already capture the vast majority of the altcoin universe.

Rate cuts didn’t move the market. Still dipping. Imagine actual bad news. Bull market would get wrecked. BTC sneeze alt bleed

Most mentions on r/cc (2025-09-20 00:00:00):
||Mentions|
|:-|:-|
|BTC|154|
|ETH|48|
|SPX|29|
|BNB|28|
|SOL|25|
|MOON|19|
|BCH|13|
|IP|11|
|HOME|10|
|SAFE|9|
|USDC|9|
|MATH|8|
|SUI|8|
|XMR|8|
|XRP|7|
|ALGO|6|
|ADA|5|
|PEPE|5|
|TOSHI|5|
|00|4|
[Data source and app](https://www.redditcoins.app/)

I think it's a feel thing. Even if a lot of things are "high" there's been no adrenaline rush. That's the *real* signal. Wonder if a bunch of stuff got front-run and everybody thought they were still buying low based on the timeline. As some have said, the banana zone may well have started at the end of '24.
That said, to u/52576078's point, that index uses the last 90 days of BTC PA. Doesn't take much rotation or prepositioning into alts to trip the bell right now. It was designing assuming an active race to the top, not ranging.

Hello u/AccidentalArbitrage
[You have](/message/messages/3x2livy) **Longed ₿865.41124342** ($100,000,000.00 worth of BTC at the execution price of $115,552.00)
You have chosen 100X leverage: You have borrowed $99,000,000.00 from the Bitty Bot Bank and spent $1,000,000.00 from your cash balance.
**Liquidation Price: $114,396.48**
Stop Loss Price: $115,549.11 - Your cash loss will be $2,500.00 if your stop loss is triggered.
You have not set a take profit price.
After opening this trade, your remaining cash balance is $2,879,350.70
Good luck!

The altcoin [index in question](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index/) already excludes stablecoins, for what it's worth.
I've been thinking about your Real BTC response since it's been coming up recently and I think the one thing that gives me pause is that it's, understandably, a bit *too* purist in the context of finding THE cyclical altseason because it doesn't just eliminate stablecoins, but specifically only uses "proof-of-work \[coins\] that are attempting to be money."
That's fine from a big picture perspective because nearly everything will be going to zero, but for those looking for a blowoff, there's plenty of mainstream crypto that could be doubling in the background without moving that needle.
The Real BTC metric might still ID altseason because it includes enough key players, but some of the new darlings aren't on there and they could very well act as feeders into or out of BTC during such a time.

>**ETF inflows,**
>**Some Ether at stake outflows,**
>**All time high is close.**
~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap

I am no expert, but not much. Each mined Bitcoin only adds $160,000 (CAD) to the total amount of Bitcoin in circulation, and they mine ~450 a day. (Or $72 million added a day.) Meaning every ~10 days BTC mining increases the "market cap" BTC by 1/1000th of the estimated $1T (US) it is.
The bigger effect on price will be the same as on stocks since Bitcoin is used as an investment: it's supply, demand, and analyst expectations that will drive the price...
Where the supply is more reliant on sellers than miners. Sure, miners might add *some* liquidity, but if I had to guess the effects of the rate 1/2'd would be minimal.
I really can't emphasize enough how much I don't know what I'm talking about: purely spitballing here.

OK. I figured out what happened, AND I was able to get it back!
So....Here is what I did. I am stupid.
1. I installed Exodus on my personal laptop that I keep at work. That was fine. I then installed it on my Android phone, during setup it asked me if I wanted to sync between devices, so I clicked yes, it created a QR code on my laptop, scanned it with my phone, everything was fine. I checked the BTC rcv address, they matched.
2. Here is where I screwed up. Later at home, I installed Exodus on my home laptop. Again it asked my if I wanted to sync devices, so I did it, but that just created a NEW wallet, that I then synced to my phone, overwriting my old wallet! But this time, figuring that I am an expert by now, I didn't check my BTC rcv address. I just figured it was right and all good. And since I didn't have any balances yet, I didn't know.

Anyway, I have my 12 words saved, so I just sat down on my home laptop, uninstalled Exodus, reinstalled it, and this time it asked if I wanted to import an existing wallet, so I did it using my 12 words, and....It worked! My .001BTC was there! So then I figured out how to do the same on my phone, and that worked too!

So now I think that they are actually all in sync AND I didn't lose all that mining work!
this a stressful journey. LOL, but I learn a little more each day. Now if my Trezor wallet would ever arrive....I'm sure I'll screw that up too.....
Thank you all for your help so far!

>Positives would be that I can day trade and pay no taxes and also pay no commission.
Isn't it now deemed to be dispensation every time you sell BTC, even if to a different token?
And don't exchanges normally charge the equivalent of a commission when one uses them?

If i had the quantum power to crack BTC thats the last thing I would go for.

Sure. I've been working on a side project for a while and ended up building a free app for analyzing crypto futures order flow and liquidity. The idea isn't to give buy/sell signals, but to provide tools that make it easier to see what's really happening under the surface where interest is stacking up, where big players are absorbing, and how liquidity shifts around key levels.
It shows things like VWAP, DOM imbalance, liquidity gaps, volume histograms, and volume clusters in real time. Right now it supports BTC, ETH and SOL.
Still developing and improving it, but it's already stable and runs live on servers that can handle some pretty heavy computations.
Goal is to make it genuinely useful for anyone who wants to dig deeper into futures order flow rather than just watching price candles.

I'm with you. XRP could turn trash. This could be the next coin being BTC is the only one people's grandparents know about.
I'm all about a new mega coin. Let's hope this is it and get off all the other coins that just follow the BTC trend and pump and dump for little gains. This needs to go to the moon! It can but it needs the masses to get their heads out their rears.

BTC movement

When you could just buy a $50 orange case and put the rest into BTC. Good luck

This week most notable headlines:
\- Fed cuts rates by 0.25
\- China restricts NVDA access. Prohibiting Chinese firms from buying NVDA
This week's trade:
**$MSTX**
Opened $MSTX cash secured puts on Monday when MSTR was dipping. Closed ahead of FOMC for a net profit of +$26, over 50% with more than a week left.
* **09/15/2025 Sell to Open:**
* MSTX 09/26/2025 18.50 P
* Quantity: 1
* Credit: +$41
* **09/17/2025 Buy to Close:**
* MSTX 09/26/2025 18.50 P
* Quantity: 1
* Debit: -$15
* Net Profit: +$26
**$LUNR**
3 weeks back I purchased 100 shares of $LUNR and sold ITM Covered calls, at the time the ITM CC paid more as opposed to a traditional CSP so i opted for the ITM CC. Fast forward, I collected about $60 in premium which brings my adjusted to $8.40. I BTC the contract for a debit of -$70 on Friday, either way it was going to get assigned but i wanted to free up capital just in case of opportunities prior to market close. New adjusted cost basis became $9.10, sold at open market for $9.70. Net profit of +$60 in 3 weeks, or 6% ROC of the initial $900
* **09/19/2025 Buy to Close:**
* LUNR 09/19/2025 9.00 C
* Quantity: 1
* Debit: -$70
* **09/19/2025 Sell:**
* LUNR (100 shares)
* Price: $9.7
* Total: +$970
* Net Profit: +$60 (considering adjusted cost basis of $9.10)
I still remain bullish on LUNR ahead of IM-3 launch, so I will be looking for opportunities to get back in via CSPs or ITM CCs again.
**As of September 21, 2025, here's what's in my portfolio:**
* $11,061 Cash reserves awaiting potential market opportunities
* No open positions - 100% cash
* Weekly $100 deposit on Wed and Fri splits
Looking ahead I have 0 open positions, market seems a bit toppy to me and sentiment is riding high post FOMC. I expect a small pullback before ultimately going higher again.
YTD realized gain of [\+$2164](https://sellingoptionshq.com/blog/road-to-100k-week-32#realized) with a win/loss ratio of [65.27%](https://sellingoptionshq.com/blog/road-to-100k-week-32#realized) (MSTX $20 CSP from last week reflect on Monday)
For many of those asking, I started YTD @ $4808. Starting tracking @ $6713
Good luck out there!

Both have BTC. And two dif trezors

Your risk score framework is pretty solid and the ETH leading indicator makes sense historically. The timing with Fed cuts aligning with previous cycles is definitely worth watching, especially since we’re seeing similar patterns to 2020-2021.
One thing I’m curious about though is whether institutional adoption changes the traditional alt season dynamics. We’re seeing a lot more corporate treasuries and ETFs this cycle compared to previous runs. When MicroStrategy or BlackRock are buying BTC, they’re not exactly going to rotate into some random DeFi token like retail traders do.
The ETH breakout signal is interesting but I wonder if this time it’s more about ETH finally getting its own institutional recognition rather than being the gateway drug to broader alt pumps. The ETH ETF approval was huge but adoption has been slower than expected.
Also curious how you factor in the regulatory environment. Trump being back in office and pushing crypto-friendly policies could extend cycles beyond normal timeframes, or at least change which alts actually pump. Infrastructure plays like SOL might behave differently than the usual small cap rotations.
Your risk scores putting both BTC and ETH in the 50s feels about right for where we are. Not overheated yet but definitely not early cycle anymore. The Fed cut timing lining up with Q4 could be the catalyst, but I’m wondering if we get a more selective alt season this time rather than the broad “everything pumps” scenarios we’ve seen before.
What’s your take on whether institutional money actually participates in alt season or if it stays concentrated in BTC/ETH?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​