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On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve (FED) cut its benchmark rate by 0.25 points to a range of 4.00%–4.25%, and its “dot plot” suggests two additional cuts before the end of the year 🤑. In this context, it can be said that the action was a “hawkish cut,” that is: a monetary easing, but with a cautious message that pushed some Treasury yields up just after the announcement and that, for the crypto world, opens a door to more liquidity. Now, be careful! 🥶 Because this path of liquidity depends on the role of the dollar in the global economy, real rates, and flows to ETFs/stablecoins.
In this article, I will explain (i) what the FED decided and in what context; (ii) how this transmits to the crypto universe, contrasting it with history and evidence; and then talk about (iii) the scenarios that could arise in the next quarter —until the end of December 2025—.
The FED's decision and its context 🤔
To understand the impact, one must first know their decisions and the context in which they occur. Initially, as I mentioned, a cut of 25 basis points (bp) was decided at the target range of 4.00%–4.25%, and the future guidance —dot plot— suggests two additional cuts before the end of the year 2025, showing us a clear signal that the monetary relaxation cycle has begun 👏. However, the cautious tone used by the FED chair, Jerome Powell, where he avoided committing to a series of rapid cuts, caused Treasury yields to rise briefly after the announcement 😫, indicating that the market did not perceive a Fed desperate to inject liquidity, so one must be careful not to jump ahead of the facts 👌.
Now, it is well known that the Trump administration pressures the FED to cut rates in order to stimulate the economy using monetary leverage 😅. In fact, some theories suggest that the accusation against Lisa Cook, a FED governor, among the 12 who vote, was actually made as a political move to pressure the other governors to vote in favor of proposals that aligned with the administration's goals 👀.
That is, the investigation of Lisa Cook, promoted by the Trump administration, and which has already been dismissed, was actually made as a strategic move to send a message to the other governors, so they would vote for a rate cut 🎉. This means: it was known that Cook's case would not transcend, but it was said to the other governors: "we know that you are not clean, and what happened with Cook could happen to you, and with you, it will transcend, so be careful."
In fact, of the 12 governors, 11 voted in favor of the cuts 🥳, but I must emphasize that the only one who was against the vote, Stephen Miran, economic advisor to Trump and appointed that same morning to vote, did so only because he wanted the cut to be larger, not because he was against the cuts themselves —just look at his forecast in the dot plot, where he anticipates more significant cuts.
It may be that the above is a "conspiracy theory" 👻 —an expression used to dismiss any argument without appealing to reason and specific facts—, but one thing is certain: the Trump administration will push and pressure to cut rates leading up to 2026. Therefore, the scenario has forces that lead to the following conclusion: very likely, there will be more liquidity in the coming months, perhaps sacrificing price stability —that is, there will be inflation, though not uncontrolled— 🤭. Add to this the fact that they want to continue tokenizing the exorbitant U.S. public debt, to lower its cost and finance public debt in better contexts[2].
The crypto universe in this scenario where more liquidity is expected
The FED's monetary policy does not affect $BTC and other cryptocurrencies by magic, but rather through five well-defined economic channels that every investor should monitor.
The dollar (DXY) and global liquidity: since Bitcoin and the dollar usually have an inverse correlation, that is, a weaker dollar —DXY down— has historically provided tailwind for BTC and other risk assets. Therefore, if the FED's sequence of cuts pressures the dollar down during this quarter —and the following months—, it will be a key bullish catalyst 😀. Must it necessarily be so in the future, strictly? Well, no, but this is a matter of probabilities and game theory, and they point that way 🤫.
Real rates and opportunity cost: for risk assets like Bitcoin, which do not generate cash flow, real interest rates —the yield of a bond minus inflation— are crucial. This translates to: when real rates drop, the opportunity cost of holding BTC and other established cryptos instead of bonds decreases, making them more attractive; consequently, if 10-year Treasury yields (10Y) fall during the quarter, it will be a very positive signal for the crypto market 🤑. However, it must be noted that several crypto analyses warn that cuts do not guarantee lower 10Y yields, as if the market fears weak growth or deficits, the 10Y may rise 😵. —In fact, since the announcement, they have risen a bit, but that does not mean they will not yield and remain so during the quarter—.
The flows to BTC, ETH, and other ETFs: since their approval, spot ETFs are the main faucet of institutional demand, which makes them a real-time thermometer of Wall Street's appetite for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies included in ETFs 😎. Thus, the institutional logic leads to estimate that, in a scenario where rates are lower, it tends to encourage allocations to these products 👌.
On-Chain liquidity —stablecoins—: the total capital of stablecoins —currently around USD$ 290-300 billion, which equals 7.18% of the total cryptocurrency market— represents the "cash ready to deploy" within the ecosystem, which is why a scenario that feeds risk appetite encourages the rotation of this capital from stablecoins to BTC and altcoins 😎.
The yield of RWA —tokenized assets—: with the Fed's rate decrease, the yields of tokenized T-Bills —like BlackRock's BUIDL— become less attractive, which could cause part of the "safe" capital parked on-chain to rotate towards assets with greater return potential like BTC, ETH, other altcoins, and/or the DeFi ecosystem 🎉.
It is necessary to keep in mind that recent studies —Glassnode, Avenir— show that liquidity within the crypto market polarizes, as much of it stays in BTC —and at the speculative end—, while the "mid-cap" suffers. With this, I mean that the first derivative of better conditions tends to favor BTC more than altcoins 👌. Although, it is also true that in recent months BTC has had the highest return, and many on-chain movements and expectations point to the arrival of a quite strong altseason 🤑.
Scenarios for the last quarter of 2025
Considering all these factors, we can outline three main scenarios for the coming months:
Base Scenario —the most probable—: if the FED achieves one or two more cuts, as expected, inflation and employment data cool moderately and the dollar will weaken or remain flat 👍. This has a constructive impact on the crypto market, as cryptocurrencies will rise, especially large-cap ones, with BTC leading the advance, driven by moderate flows in ETFs. In this scenario, there is no euphoria of a total "altseason" 😊.
Bullish Scenario —liquidity accelerates—: if macro data is very positive —these are: inflation falls rapidly and employment holds—, the FED can afford to be more aggressive in its cuts, thus the dollar would weaken significantly and real rates would fall sharply 😍. This means for the crypto market that ETF inflows would reactivate strongly and risk appetite would soar, benefiting not only BTC but also higher beta assets like Solana and other layer 1 (L1) blockchain tokens, potentially leading to a moderate or large altseason at the end of the quarter 🚀.
Bearish Scenario —defensive cut—: but if the FED does not comply and cuts rates, the market could interpret the action as "fear of a recession," causing bond rates to rise due to risk aversion and the dollar to strengthen as a safe haven asset 🤧. For the crypto market, this means what you may already suspect: volatility increases, ETF flows stagnate or turn negative, and large-cap cryptocurrencies, mainly BTC, would fare better, but altcoins would suffer a severe correction —thus killing any FOMO for those waiting for altseason— 😫.
Conclusions
In summary, one must be careful and not fall into FOMO. The first cut by the Fed is a reversal signal, but not a blank check for future cuts. Although, the base scenario for the last quarter of 2025 is constructively bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies —some, as I already said, point to a strong altseason—, given the improvements in liquidity conditions 🤭. BTC will be the most "secure," and how big or small the "altseason" will be will depend on whether risk appetite consolidates and/or grows 🤔.
In this framework, then, the operational formula is simple: if you see that the Dollar and real rates drop (DXY↓ and 10Y↓), the wind blows in favor of cryptocurrencies; conversely, if both rise (DXY↑ and 10Y↑), it is time to manage risk 👌.
And you, what do you think will happen? Leave me your opinion in the comments: Do you see the bullish or bearish scenario more likely for this last quarter? I read you!
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[1] The dot plot is a kind of chart where each member of the FED expresses where they believe they will place interest rates in the coming months and years. In this framework, it is understood that it is used as a guide to know the organization's trend and anticipate possible future actions.
[2] This would greatly affect the crypto market, especially decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, but I will leave that analysis for a next article.
Roymer Rivas RARB

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