FLXN
Horizon Flexible Income ETF
stock BATS ETF

Table fixed:
| Ticker | 2019-08-12 | 2024-08-12 | % |
|:-------|:-----------|:-----------|:--|
| GH | $98.63 | $29.00 | 29% |
| FLXN | $11.37 | $8.50 | 75% |
| VRTX | $179.84 | $468.70 | 261% |
| OMER | $18.41 | $4.12 | 22% |
| PCRX | $40.39 | $12.74 | 32% |
| HXL | $79.89 | $62.16 | 78% |
| FMC | $85.57 | $61.15 | 71% |
| MELI | $623.55 | $1,883.16 | 302% |
| MSFT | $159.03 | $406.20 | 255% |
| AMZN | $1,784.92 | $3,341.80 | 187% |
| SHOP | $366.73 | $692.90 | 189% |
| CRM | $140.72 | $252.53 | 179% |
| SQ | $62.63 | $62.14 | 99% |
| AYX | $131.08 | $48.52 | 37% |
| PYPL | $102.72 | $64.72 | 63% |
| TTD | $255.08 | $993.00 | 389% |
| ZM | $92.16 | $56.10 | 61% |
| MDB | $143.51 | $235.40 | 164% |
| OKTA | $130.50 | $89.00 | 68% |
| ZS | $83.21 | $174.00 | 209% |
| TWLO | $131.49 | $60.37 | 46% |

[5 years ago I wrote a list of 20 stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/coz3u7/strike_it_big_stocks_for_the_next_decade_a/) I believed were high-risk/high-reward investments into new technology for the future. I think there are some interesting lessons to learn from this. Here's where they stand now:
||
||
|#Ticker|2019-08-12|2024-08-12|%|
|GH|$98,63|$29,00|29%|
|FLXN|$11,37|$8,50|75%|
|VRTX|$179,84|$468,70|261%|
|OMER|$18,41|$4,12|22%|
|PCRX|$40,39|$12,74|32%|
|HXL|$79,89|$62,16|78%|
|FMC|$85,57|$61,15|71%|
|MELI|$623,55|$1.883,16|302%|
|MSFT|$159,03|$406,20|255%|
|AMZN|$1.784,92|$3.341,80|187%|
|SHOP|$366,73|$692,90|189%|
|CRM|$140,72|$252,53|179%|
|SQ|$62,63|$62,14|99%|
|AYX|$131,08|$48,52|37%|
|PYPL|$102,72|$64,72|63%|
|TTD|$255,08|$993,00|389%|
|ZM|$92,16|$56,10|61%|
|MDB|$143,51|$235,40|164%|
|OKTA|$130,50|$89,00|68%|
|ZS|$83,21|$174,00|209%|
|TWLO|$131,49|$60,37|46%|
Average return: 34%
Average return on "new tech": -19%
Average return on "efficient tech": 60%
If you invested in SPY in the same period: 80%
So, you could dismiss this exercise by saying "just invest in S&P 500". But there's this one peculiar thing: the pricing of FMC and HXL doesn't make sense.
HXL grew their revenue by 23% and their EBITDA by 74%. In contrast, FMC shrank their revenue by 13% and shrank their EBITDA by a whopping 60%! And in this period their respective stock prices performed more or less the same. One could argue that it's because investors have more trust in the future of FMC's agrucultural products than in the future of HXL's advanced materials. But I don't think this is the case, both are somewhat boring technical products that investors don't have that much insight into.
No, I think the real difference is that FMC is in the S&P 500 and HXL is not and their stock performance is propped up by investors blindly shipping capital into S&P 500 ETFs. The P/S ratio of the S&P 500 has grown by 30% since 2019 meaning you are paying 30% more for the earnings the companies generate.
It will be interesting to keep track on this effect. I think it's still on the upswing as more and more young people are entering passive investing. But I wonder what the long term effects will be. I'll look at these stocks again in 5 years.

Table fixed:
| Ticker | 2019-08-12 | 2024-08-12 | % |
|:-------|:-----------|:-----------|:--|
| GH | $98.63 | $29.00 | 29% |
| FLXN | $11.37 | $8.50 | 75% |
| VRTX | $179.84 | $468.70 | 261% |
| OMER | $18.41 | $4.12 | 22% |
| PCRX | $40.39 | $12.74 | 32% |
| HXL | $79.89 | $62.16 | 78% |
| FMC | $85.57 | $61.15 | 71% |
| MELI | $623.55 | $1,883.16 | 302% |
| MSFT | $159.03 | $406.20 | 255% |
| AMZN | $1,784.92 | $3,341.80 | 187% |
| SHOP | $366.73 | $692.90 | 189% |
| CRM | $140.72 | $252.53 | 179% |
| SQ | $62.63 | $62.14 | 99% |
| AYX | $131.08 | $48.52 | 37% |
| PYPL | $102.72 | $64.72 | 63% |
| TTD | $255.08 | $993.00 | 389% |
| ZM | $92.16 | $56.10 | 61% |
| MDB | $143.51 | $235.40 | 164% |
| OKTA | $130.50 | $89.00 | 68% |
| ZS | $83.21 | $174.00 | 209% |
| TWLO | $131.49 | $60.37 | 46% |

[5 years ago I wrote a list of 20 stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/coz3u7/strike_it_big_stocks_for_the_next_decade_a/) I believed were high-risk/high-reward investments into new technology for the future. I think there are some interesting lessons to learn from this. Here's where they stand now:
||
||
|#Ticker|2019-08-12|2024-08-12|%|
|GH|$98,63|$29,00|29%|
|FLXN|$11,37|$8,50|75%|
|VRTX|$179,84|$468,70|261%|
|OMER|$18,41|$4,12|22%|
|PCRX|$40,39|$12,74|32%|
|HXL|$79,89|$62,16|78%|
|FMC|$85,57|$61,15|71%|
|MELI|$623,55|$1.883,16|302%|
|MSFT|$159,03|$406,20|255%|
|AMZN|$1.784,92|$3.341,80|187%|
|SHOP|$366,73|$692,90|189%|
|CRM|$140,72|$252,53|179%|
|SQ|$62,63|$62,14|99%|
|AYX|$131,08|$48,52|37%|
|PYPL|$102,72|$64,72|63%|
|TTD|$255,08|$993,00|389%|
|ZM|$92,16|$56,10|61%|
|MDB|$143,51|$235,40|164%|
|OKTA|$130,50|$89,00|68%|
|ZS|$83,21|$174,00|209%|
|TWLO|$131,49|$60,37|46%|
Average return: 34%
Average return on "new tech": -19%
Average return on "efficient tech": 60%
If you invested in SPY in the same period: 80%
So, you could dismiss this exercise by saying "just invest in S&P 500". But there's this one peculiar thing: the pricing of FMC and HXL doesn't make sense.
HXL grew their revenue by 23% and their EBITDA by 74%. In contrast, FMC shrank their revenue by 13% and shrank their EBITDA by a whopping 60%! And in this period their respective stock prices performed more or less the same. One could argue that it's because investors have more trust in the future of FMC's agrucultural products than in the future of HXL's advanced materials. But I don't think this is the case, both are somewhat boring technical products that investors don't have that much insight into.
No, I think the real difference is that FMC is in the S&P 500 and HXL is not and their stock performance is propped up by investors blindly shipping capital into S&P 500 ETFs. The P/S ratio of the S&P 500 has grown by 30% since 2019 meaning you are paying 30% more for the earnings the companies generate.
It will be interesting to keep track on this effect. I think it's still on the upswing as more and more young people are entering passive investing. But I wonder what the long term effects will be. I'll look at these stocks again in 5 years.