PR Newswire | Nov 18, 2021 08:02AM EST

11/18 07:00 CST

Shift Toward Seasonal Norms Could Benefit Buyers, RentersThough still hot, easing competition in the housing market could reward persistent shoppers- A less competitive fall market could mean savings for buyers and additional time to decide on a purchase.- Rent growth slows in line with seasonal norms, with rents falling in eight major metros.- Although monthly home value appreciation continues to ease, annual appreciation of 19.2% breaks new records. SEATTLE, Nov. 18, 2021

SEATTLE, Nov. 18, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- After ignoring the annual autumn memo to cool down last year, the housing market is finally showing signs of moderation typically seen in the fall, according to Zillow's(r) latest market report1.

"Home buyers shopping this fall shouldn't expect the same frenzied demand that triggered bidding wars on listings this spring and summer," said Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker. "The normal seasonal slowdown of autumn has returned, when many families are busy with back-to-school activities and planning for the holidays. Buyers can expect less competition, meaning more time to decide on a house and the potential for prices to fall on listings they've saved on Zillow."

Although the market is still far hotter than usual, October witnessed normal fall trends of decelerating growth for rents, declining list prices, longer times on market for listings and more homes receiving price cuts before sale. These are indications that seasonality is returning to replace the unfettered growth seen over the past year and a half.

Home value appreciation slowed in October for the third month in a row, as home values rose 1.3% over September, slower than the all-time high monthly appreciation of 2% in July. The typical home value in the U.S. measured by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) is now up to $312,728. Annual growth of 19.2% ($50,405) is the highest in Zillow data reaching back to 2000.

Home values didn't drop in any of the 50 largest U.S. metros, but monthly home value growth decelerated in 42 of them. The slowest monthly growth was seen in Milwaukee (0.1%), San Francisco (0.3%), Buffalo (0.3%) and St. Louis (0.4%), while the fastest was in Raleigh (2.7%), Nashville (2.4%) and Atlanta (2.3%). The average October monthly appreciation in the U.S. from 2015 through 2019 was 0.4%.

Less frenzied market can benefit buyersAutumn and winter home shopping seasons usually feature fewer homes on the market, along with less competition. The October report shows inventory down 17.4% from last year and contracting by 1.1% since September, after rising from May through September.

Longer time on the market for listings means buyers have more time to weigh their options and schedule home inspections before purchasing. October listings typically spent 10 days on the market, compared to nine in September and seven in April, May and June.

Median list prices have fallen since July, and the share of homes that saw a price cut before selling rose slightly over September, as well, now standing at 14.7% - nearly double the year's low point in April. The most recent data on the share of homes that sold above list price shows a monthly decline of 6.6% in September to 47.2%, down from a peak of 51.3% in July.

In the midst of a surge in demand last fall, the share of listings with a price cut began a long slide downward in October of 2020, while the share of homes sold above list price was climbing skyward.

Rent growth slows and rents fall in some metrosRent growth continued on its path of deceleration in October, registering 0.8% month-over-month growth compared to a record high of 2.1% in July. This slowing, too, is in line with seasonal norms - October had the lowest monthly rent appreciation in 2018 and 2019 and saw no growth in 2020 as rents recovered from the shock of the pandemic. Still, the rapid rise in rents since March has pushed annual growth to 14.3%, the highest rate in the series' history, which began in 2015. Typical rents in the U.S. are $1,873, now $234 higher than last October.

Rents fell from September in eight of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, compared to just one the month before. The largest monthly drops were in Hartford (-1%), Baltimore (-0.6%) and San Jose (-0.5%), while the largest gains came from Miami (2%), Salt Lake City (1.9%) and Orlando (1.8%).

Zillow Zillow ZORI - Home Value ZHVI - Days Share of Observed MonthMetropolitan Area* Index Year Over on Listings Rent Over Year Market with a Index Month (ZHVI) Change Price Cut Change (ZORI)

United States $312,728 19.2% 10 14.7% $1,873 0.8%

New York, NY $569,191 13.8% 34 $2,712 1.0%

Los Angeles, CA $851,308 17.9% 12 11.2% $2,712 0.9%

Chicago, IL $286,280 13.8% 12 21.3% $1,698 0.1%

Dallas-Fort Worth, $332,118 23.3% 17 $1,707 0.5%TX

Philadelphia, PA $309,597 16.0% 10 17.2% $1,747 0.9%

Houston, TX $272,066 18.8% 13 $1,539 0.6%

Washington, D.C. $520,598 12.8% 9 18.5% $2,131 0.6%

Miami-Fort $381,256 19.7% 15 9.8% $2,479 2.0%Lauderdale, FL

Atlanta, GA $322,123 24.7% 8 13.2% $1,882 1.0%

Boston, MA $605,224 15.5% 8 13.1% $2,517 0.8%

San Francisco, CA $1,346,995 17.0% 12 9.9% $3,082 0.1%

Detroit, MI $225,066 17.1% 10 17.3% $1,394 0.9%

Riverside, CA $525,941 27.7% 12 12.4% $2,455 0.2%

Phoenix, AZ $418,170 32.7% 11 13.7% $1,848 1.1%

Seattle, WA $695,058 21.8% 7 12.5% $2,181 0.2%

Minneapolis-St. $349,595 13.6% 16 16.8% $1,606 -0.2%Paul, MN

San Diego, CA $814,289 25.1% 9 13.2% $2,717 1.3%

St. Louis, MO $220,861 14.6% 6 16.1% $1,201 0.3%

Tampa, FL $316,379 28.7% 6 15.8% $1,973 1.4%

Baltimore, MD $349,655 12.8% 8 18.5% $1,745 -0.6%

Denver, CO $574,734 22.0% 6 17.2% $1,907 -0.1%

Pittsburgh, PA $200,185 17.4% 9 20.0% $1,279 0.2%

Portland, OR $532,300 19.2% 7 17.1% $1,831 -0.1%

Charlotte, NC $324,163 24.8% 6 14.2% $1,695 0.5%

Sacramento, CA $567,023 24.0% 8 $2,220 0.5%

San Antonio, TX $265,602 20.2% 9 16.0% $1,387 0.0%

Orlando, FL $328,555 20.3% 8 13.6% $1,856 1.8%

Cincinnati, OH $236,963 17.3% 5 17.5% $1,430 1.1%

Cleveland, OH $199,110 16.7% 7 17.4% $1,228 -0.2%

Kansas City, MO $259,200 18.5% 4 15.6% $1,247 1.1%

Las Vegas, NV $385,325 25.0% 9 16.2% $1,786 0.7%

Columbus, OH $266,594 16.9% 4 17.8% $1,384 0.9%

Indianapolis, IN $235,663 18.1% 5 16.1% $1,407 0.1%

San Jose, CA $1,493,020 16.7% 14 9.4% $3,087 -0.5%

Austin, TX $527,134 44.3% 18 13.9% $1,785 0.6%

Virginia Beach, VA $295,626 14.6% 21 $1,555 0.8%

Nashville, TN $374,406 22.9% 5 $1,785 0.9%

Providence, RI $411,467 20.1% 10 13.3% $1,800 0.4%

Milwaukee, WI $251,032 15.5% 33 15.6% $1,148 -0.1%

Jacksonville, FL $308,552 24.9% 7 14.9% $1,694 0.5%

Memphis, TN $201,846 18.4% 20 $1,441 0.9%

Oklahoma City, OK $192,346 14.3% 6 $1,221 0.2%

Louisville-Jefferson $220,485 13.9% 6 19.1% $1,103 0.0%County, KY

Hartford, CT $294,010 16.6% 8 15.3% $1,546 -1.0%

Richmond, VA $298,298 14.5% 6 $1,471 1.0%

New Orleans, LA $249,800 13.7% 12 13.9% $1,346 0.2%

Buffalo, NY $225,277 22.2% 11 14.2% $1,149 0.3%

Raleigh, NC $384,170 28.3% 5 10.0% $1,661 0.6%

Birmingham, AL $212,919 15.6% 6 12.1% $1,310 0.5%

Salt Lake City, UT $539,824 28.4% 7 19.0% $1,584 1.9%

* Table ordered by market size

The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are monthly overviews of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research. The data in^ the Zillow Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a1 number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas, dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood levels can be accessed at www.zillow.com/research/data.

AboutZillow Group

Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life's next chapter.

As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow(r) and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting or financing with transparency and nearly seamless end-to-end service. Zillow Offers(r) buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans(tm), our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase. Zillow recently launched Zillow Homes, Inc., a licensed brokerage entity, to streamline Zillow Offers transactions.

Zillow Group's brands, affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow(r); Zillow Offers(r); Zillow Premier Agent(r); Zillow Home Loans(tm); Zillow Closing Services(tm); Zillow Homes, Inc.; Trulia(r); Out East(r); StreetEasy(r) and HotPads(r). Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

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SOURCE Zillow