PR Newswire | Jul 29, 2021 09:02AM EDT

07/29 08:00 CDT

TrueCar Forecasts Third Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for July 2021Inventory Shortages are Bringing Incentives Down and Raising Transaction Prices SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2021

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,292,064 units in July 2021, up just 1% from a year ago but down 8% vs. June 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.7 million, staying on par with July 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,171,277 units, about even with a year ago and a decrease of 7% from June 2021. "Increasing pressure on new car inventory continues to drive the car buying landscape in July. Lower inventory is likely creating a drag on sales and driving up transaction prices. It is also leading to more would-be new car buyers opting for used cars, which in turn is contributing to the surge in used car prices," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, there are still deals out there, and TrueCar is a great way to navigate the current landscape and cast a wider net to find those deals," added Woolard.

"In July we expect to see things continue to cool since the recent new vehicle sales peak in April. Despite cooling from recent months, many brands still show improvement compared to 2020. Volkswagen in particular is looking strong in July, propelled in part by the all-new Taos and ID.4 which are resonating well with buyers," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Insights (forecast byTrueCar):

* Total sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 1% from a year ago and down 8% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Fleet sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 16% from a year ago and down 14% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Incentive spend is down 36% from last year. * Average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and up .2% from June 2021. * Total SAAR is expected to remain about the same from a year ago at 14.7 million units. * Used vehicle sales for July 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, down 4% from a year ago and about even with June 2021. * The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%. * The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Forecast Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW 33,969 22,711 34,872 49.6% 44.0% -2.6% -9.8%

Daimler 24,576 26,850 24,347 -8.5% -11.9% 0.9% -6.5%

Ford 116,502 174,978 114,677 -33.4% -35.9% 1.6% -5.9%

GM 202,932 204,756 204,782 -0.9% -4.6% -0.9% -8.2%

Honda 151,587 125,450 153,122 20.8% 16.4% -1.0% -8.3%

Hyundai 78,226 58,934 76,519 32.7% 27.8% 2.2% -5.3%

Kia 68,358 52,479 68,486 30.3% 25.4% -0.2% -7.6%

Nissan 76,230 73,463 88,642 3.8% -0.1% -14.0% -20.4%

Stellantis 140,068 157,025 136,334 -10.8% -14.1% 2.7% -4.9%

Subaru 45,685 51,458 42,877 -11.2% -14.5% 6.5% -1.3%

Tesla 23,734 15,800 22,869 50.2% 44.7% 3.8% -3.9%

Toyota 206,520 168,791 209,721 22.4% 17.8% -1.5% -8.8%

Volkswagen Group 60,973 47,724 61,251 27.8% 23.0% -0.5% -7.8%

Industry 1,292,064 1,227,420 1,300,873 5.3% 1.4% -0.7% -8.0%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change MoM % Change MoM % Change Forecast (Daily Selling Rate) (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW 33,404 22,341 34,276 49.5% 44.0% -2.5% -9.8%

Daimler 23,530 26,166 23,849 -10.1% -13.4% -1.3% -8.6%

Ford 86,019 138,872 93,140 -38.1% -40.4% -7.6% -14.5%

GM 173,961 183,945 178,935 -5.4% -8.9% -2.8% -10.0%

Honda 149,962 124,387 152,480 20.6% 16.1% -1.7% -8.9%

Hyundai 72,518 57,530 70,650 26.1% 21.4% 2.6% -5.0%

Kia 63,128 51,326 65,938 23.0% 18.4% -4.3% -11.4%

Nissan 67,581 66,400 73,163 1.8% -2.0% -7.6% -14.5%

Stellantis 130,497 136,782 114,221 -4.6% -8.1% 14.2% 5.8%

Subaru 44,840 50,436 41,278 -11.1% -14.4% 8.6% 0.6%

Tesla 23,569 15,800 22,861 49.2% 43.6% 3.1% -4.5%

Toyota 187,140 163,509 185,259 14.5% 10.2% 1.0% -6.5%

Volkswagen Group 60,184 47,208 60,350 27.5% 22.8% -0.3% -7.7%

Industry 1,171,277 1,127,219 1,170,134 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% -7.3%

Fleet Unit Sales

YoY % MoM % Jul 2021 Jul Jun YoY % Change MoM % ChangeManufacturer Forecast 2020 2021 Change (Daily Change (Daily Actual Actual Selling Selling Rate) Rate)

BMW 565 370 596 52.9% 47.2% -5.2% -12.3%

Daimler 1,046 684 498 52.9% 47.2% 110.0% 94.5%

Ford 30,483 36,106 21,537 -15.6% -18.7% 41.5% 31.1%

GM 28,971 20,811 25,847 39.2% 34.1% 12.1% 3.8%

Honda 1,625 1,063 642 52.9% 47.2% 153.0% 134.2%

Hyundai 5,708 1,404 5,869 306.6% 291.5% -2.7% -10.0%

Kia 5,230 1,153 2,548 353.6% 336.8% 105.3% 90.1%

Nissan 8,649 7,063 15,479 22.5% 17.9% -44.1% -48.3%

Stellantis 9,571 20,243 22,113 -52.7% -54.5% -56.7% -59.9%

Subaru 845 1,022 1,599 -17.3% -20.4% -47.1% -51.1%

Tesla 165 - 8 2016.2% 1859.5%

Toyota 19,380 5,282 24,462 266.9% 253.3% -20.8% -26.6%

Volkswagen Group 789 516 901 52.9% 47.2% -12.4% -18.9%

Industry 120,787 100,201 130,739 20.5% 16.1% -7.6% -14.5%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Jul 2020 Jun 2021 YoY % MoM % Forecast Actual Actual Change Change

BMW 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% -2.7%

Daimler 4.3% 2.5% 2.0% 67.0% 108.1%

Ford 26.2% 20.6% 18.8% 26.8% 39.3%

GM 14.3% 10.2% 12.6% 40.5% 13.1%

Honda 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 26.5% 155.5%

Hyundai 7.3% 2.4% 7.7% 206.3% -4.9%

Kia 7.7% 2.2% 3.7% 248.3% 105.7%

Nissan 11.3% 9.6% 17.5% 18.0% -35.0%

Stellantis 6.8% 12.9% 16.2% -47.0% -57.9%

Subaru 1.8% 2.0% 3.7% -6.9% -50.4%

Tesla 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1939.1%

Toyota 9.4% 3.1% 11.7% 199.9% -19.5%

Volkswagen Group 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 19.6% -12.1%

Industry 9.3% 8.2% 10.1% 14.5% -7.0%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Forecast Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual

BMW 2.6% 1.9% 2.7%

Daimler 1.9% 2.2% 1.9%

Ford 9.0% 14.3% 8.8%

GM 15.7% 16.7% 15.7%

Honda 11.7% 10.2% 11.8%

Hyundai 6.1% 4.8% 5.9%

Kia 5.3% 4.3% 5.3%

Nissan 5.9% 6.0% 6.8%

Stellantis 10.8% 12.8% 10.5%

Subaru 3.5% 4.2% 3.3%

Tesla 1.8% 1.3% 1.8%

Toyota 16.0% 13.8% 16.1%

Volkswagen Group 4.7% 3.9% 4.7%

95.1% 96.2% 95.2%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Forecast Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual

BMW 2.9% 2.0% 2.9%

Daimler 2.0% 2.3% 2.0%

Ford 7.3% 12.3% 8.0%

GM 14.9% 16.3% 15.3%

Honda 12.8% 11.0% 13.0%

Hyundai 6.2% 5.1% 6.0%

Kia 5.4% 4.6% 5.6%

Nissan 5.8% 5.9% 6.3%

Stellantis 11.1% 12.1% 9.8%

Subaru 3.8% 4.5% 3.5%

Tesla 2.0% 1.4% 2.0%

Toyota 16.0% 14.5% 15.8%

Volkswagen Group 5.1% 4.2% 5.2%

95.3% 96.2% 95.4%

ATP

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Forecast Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW $57,024 $58,212 $58,570 -2.0% -2.6%

Daimler $56,048 $60,586 $56,585 -7.5% -0.9%

Ford $46,626 $43,304 $44,561 7.7% 4.6%

GM $44,749 $41,068 $44,408 9.0% 0.8%

Honda $31,149 $30,058 $31,075 3.6% 0.2%

Hyundai $31,074 $28,808 $30,333 7.9% 2.4%

Kia $28,085 $24,887 $27,783 12.9% 1.1%

Nissan $31,258 $28,435 $30,945 9.9% 1.0%

Stellantis $47,943 $42,206 $47,412 13.6% 1.1%

Subaru $31,276 $30,292 $31,887 3.2% -1.9%

Toyota $35,264 $34,012 $35,398 3.7% -0.4%

Volkswagen Group $41,614 $40,186 $42,050 3.6% -1.0%

Industry $38,188 $36,432 $38,097 4.8% 0.2%

Incentives

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual YOY MOM Forecast

BMW $4,269 $5,479 $4,452 -22.1% -4.1%

Daimler $3,226 $5,560 $3,280 -42.0% -1.6%

Ford $2,251 $4,075 $2,479 -44.8% -9.2%

GM $3,336 $5,561 $4,023 -40.0% -17.1%

Honda $1,985 $2,661 $2,096 -25.4% -5.3%

Hyundai $1,720 $2,442 $1,884 -29.6% -8.7%

Kia $2,265 $3,711 $2,603 -39.0% -13.0%

Nissan $3,112 $4,556 $3,025 -31.7% 2.8%

Stellantis $2,827 $4,763 $2,812 -40.6% 0.6%

Subaru $1,345 $1,855 $1,395 -27.5% -3.6%

Toyota $1,882 $2,733 $1,916 -31.1% -1.8%

Volkswagen Group $3,381 $4,508 $3,421 -25.0% -1.2%

Industry $2,529 $3,986 $2,732 -36.5% -7.4%

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual YOY MOM Forecast

BMW 7.5% 9.4% 7.6% -20.5% -1.5%

Daimler 5.8% 9.2% 5.8% -37.3% -0.7%

Ford 4.8% 9.4% 5.6% -48.7% -13.2%

GM 7.5% 13.5% 9.1% -44.9% -17.7%

Honda 6.4% 8.9% 6.7% -28.0% -5.5%

Hyundai 5.5% 8.5% 6.2% -34.7% -10.9%

Kia 8.1% 14.9% 9.4% -45.9% -13.9%

Nissan 10.0% 16.0% 9.8% -37.9% 1.8%

Stellantis 5.9% 11.3% 5.9% -47.7% -0.6%

Subaru 4.3% 6.1% 4.4% -29.8% -1.7%

Toyota 5.3% 8.0% 5.4% -33.6% -1.4%

Volkswagen Group 8.1% 11.2% 8.1% -27.6% -0.1%

Industry 6.6% 10.9% 7.2% -39.5% -7.6%

Revenue

Manufacturer Jul 2021 Forecast Jul 2020 Actual Jun 2021 Actual YOY MOM

Industry $49,341,554,560 $44,717,708,837 $49,559,399,807 10.3% -0.4%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars - all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.