PR Newswire | May 25, 2021 10:02AM EDT

05/25 09:00 CDT

TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales up 36% for May 2021Incentive Spend Expected to Dip Below $3,000 SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 25, 2021

SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,509,221 units in May 2021, up 36% from a year ago and even with April 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.2 million, bouncing back from 12.1 million SAAR in May 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,379,623 units, an increase of 35% from a year ago and an increase of 2% from April 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"May of last year was heavily impacted by the pandemic and doesn't provide a great compare. However, compared to May 2019 we expect retail sales to be up 9%. The global microchip shortage is putting pressure on the industry but we are seeing overwhelming demand continue to support historically strong retail sales," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"Vehicles are turning quickly, almost 4 weeks faster than what we saw during this period in 2019. It is a seller's market and consumers who find a vehicle they like will need to move quickly or risk losing out," added Woolard.

"May kicks off the summer sales period and this month we expect average incentive spend to be below $3,000. This is down nearly 30% from last year with all major manufacturers showing declines," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "With continued constraint on vehicle production, we expect incentives to remain low, at least throughout the summer."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

* Total retail sales for May 2021 are expected to be up 35% from a year ago and up 2% from April 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Fleet sales for May 2021 are expected to be up 47% from a year ago and down 18% from April 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Incentive spend is down 29% from last year. * Average transaction price is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and up 1% from April 2021. * Total SAAR is expected to increase 34% from a year ago from 12.1 million units to 16.2 million units. * Used vehicle sales for May 2021 are expected to reach 4.0 million, up 13% from a year ago and up 4% from April 2021. * The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.6%. * The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

May 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume.For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW 37,023 20,052 32,161 84.6% 84.6% 15.1% 15.1%

Daimler 25,719 20,958 24,754 22.7% 22.7% 3.9% 3.9%

Ford 164,142 154,775 197,063 6.1% 6.1% -16.7% -16.7%

GM 210,603 175,921 238,819 19.7% 19.7% -11.8% -11.8%

Honda 183,278 120,977 156,482 51.5% 51.5% 17.1% 17.1%

Hyundai 86,820 58,969 80,817 47.2% 47.2% 7.4% 7.4%

Kia 65,989 45,817 70,177 44.0% 44.0% -6.0% -6.0%

Nissan 102,905 65,349 99,132 57.5% 57.5% 3.8% 3.8%

Stellantis 162,221 137,119 166,012 18.3% 18.3% -2.3% -2.3%

Subaru 68,293 51,988 61,389 31.4% 31.4% 11.2% 11.2%

Tesla 20,149 8,150 16,600 147.2% 147.2% 21.4% 21.4%

Toyota 239,453 163,421 238,089 46.5% 46.5% 0.6% 0.6%

Volkswagen Group 66,753 42,205 71,336 58.2% 58.2% -6.4% -6.4%

Industry 1,509,221 1,111,723 1,512,158 35.8% 35.8% -0.2% -0.2%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW 36,213 19,689 31,611 83.9% 83.9% 14.6% 14.6%

Daimler 24,737 19,853 24,248 24.6% 24.6% 2.0% 2.0%

Ford 123,413 125,247 160,388 -1.5% -1.5% -23.1% -23.1%

GM 184,386 156,023 207,913 18.2% 18.2% -11.3% -11.3%

Honda 181,267 120,034 155,826 51.0% 51.0% 16.3% 16.3%

Hyundai 84,470 57,629 78,433 46.6% 46.6% 7.7% 7.7%

Kia 65,085 44,651 67,566 45.8% 45.8% -3.7% -3.7%

Nissan 88,843 55,516 81,802 60.0% 60.0% 8.6% 8.6%

Stellantis 146,743 124,778 138,424 17.6% 17.6% 6.0% 6.0%

Subaru 66,622 50,496 59,100 31.9% 31.9% 12.7% 12.7%

Tesla 19,970 8,150 16,594 145.0% 145.0% 20.3% 20.3%

Toyota 224,127 157,125 209,846 42.6% 42.6% 6.8% 6.8%

Volkswagen Group 65,548 41,808 70,285 56.8% 56.8% -6.7% -6.7%

Industry 1,379,623 1,023,799 1,353,206 34.8% 34.8% 2.0% 2.0%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW 810 363 550 123.2% 123.2% 47.2% 47.2%

Daimler 982 1,105 506 -11.1% -11.1% 94.0% 94.0%

Ford 40,729 29,528 36,675 37.9% 37.9% 11.1% 11.1%

GM 26,217 19,898 30,906 31.8% 31.8% -15.2% -15.2%

Honda 2,011 943 656 113.3% 113.3% 206.4% 206.4%

Hyundai 2,350 1,340 2,384 75.4% 75.4% -1.4% -1.4%

Kia 904 1,166 2,611 -22.5% -22.5% -65.4% -65.4%

Nissan 14,062 9,833 17,330 43.0% 43.0% -18.9% -18.9%

Stellantis 15,478 12,341 27,588 25.4% 25.4% -43.9% -43.9%

Subaru 1,672 1,492 2,289 12.0% 12.0% -27.0% -27.0%

Tesla 179 - 6 3062.3% 3062.3%

Toyota 15,326 6,296 28,243 143.4% 143.4% -45.7% -45.7%

Volkswagen Group 1,205 397 1,051 203.5% 203.5% 14.6% 14.6%

Industry 129,598 87,924 158,952 47.4% 47.4% -18.5% -18.5%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change

BMW 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 20.9% 27.8%

Daimler 3.8% 5.3% 2.0% -27.6% 86.7%

Ford 24.8% 19.1% 18.6% 30.1% 33.3%

GM 12.4% 11.3% 12.9% 10.1% -3.8%

Honda 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 40.8% 161.6%

Hyundai 2.7% 2.3% 3.0% 19.1% -8.3%

Kia 1.4% 2.5% 3.7% -46.2% -63.2%

Nissan 13.7% 15.0% 17.5% -9.2% -21.8%

Stellantis 9.5% 9.0% 16.6% 6.0% -42.6%

Subaru 2.4% 2.9% 3.7% -14.7% -34.3%

Tesla 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2505.4%

Toyota 6.4% 3.9% 11.9% 66.1% -46.0%

Volkswagen Group 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 91.9% 22.5%

Industry 8.6% 7.9% 10.5% 8.6% -18.3%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual

BMW 2.5% 1.8% 2.1%

Daimler 1.7% 1.9% 1.6%

Ford 10.9% 13.9% 13.0%

GM 14.0% 15.8% 15.8%

Honda 12.1% 10.9% 10.3%

Hyundai 5.8% 5.3% 5.3%

Kia 4.4% 4.1% 4.6%

Nissan 6.8% 5.9% 6.6%

Stellantis 10.7% 12.3% 11.0%

Subaru 4.5% 4.7% 4.1%

Tesla 1.3% 0.7% 1.1%

Toyota 15.9% 14.7% 15.7%

Volkswagen Group 4.4% 3.8% 4.7%

95.0% 95.9% 96.1%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual

BMW 2.6% 1.9% 2.3%

Daimler 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%

Ford 8.9% 12.2% 11.9%

GM 13.4% 15.2% 15.4%

Honda 13.1% 11.7% 11.5%

Hyundai 6.1% 5.6% 5.8%

Kia 4.7% 4.4% 5.0%

Nissan 6.4% 5.4% 6.0%

Stellantis 10.6% 12.2% 10.2%

Subaru 4.8% 4.9% 4.4%

Tesla 1.4% 0.8% 1.2%

Toyota 16.2% 15.3% 15.5%

Volkswagen Group 4.8% 4.1% 5.2%

95.1% 95.8% 96.2%

ATP

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW $59,429 $60,467 $59,432 -1.7% 0.0%

Daimler $61,377 $59,893 $61,105 2.5% 0.4%

Ford $41,620 $43,531 $43,436 -4.4% -4.2%

GM $43,691 $39,899 $42,478 9.5% 2.9%

Honda $31,597 $30,012 $31,564 5.3% 0.1%

Hyundai $30,163 $28,606 $28,905 5.4% 4.4%

Kia $28,592 $24,935 $28,244 14.7% 1.2%

Nissan $30,822 $28,737 $30,211 7.3% 2.0%

Stellantis $45,357 $42,013 $44,265 8.0% 2.5%

Subaru $30,192 $30,532 $30,381 -1.1% -0.6%

Toyota $35,396 $34,626 $34,887 2.2% 1.5%

Volkswagen Group $45,483 $41,572 $45,028 9.4% 1.0%

Industry $37,584 $36,464 $37,350 3.1% 0.6%

$1,119.2 $233

Incentives

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW $4,498 $6,272 $4,872 -28.3% -7.7%

Daimler $4,280 $6,822 $3,799 -37.3% 12.7%

Ford $2,691 $4,426 $2,938 -39.2% -8.4%

GM $4,489 $5,815 $4,641 -22.8% -3.3%

Honda $2,064 $2,879 $2,285 -28.3% -9.7%

Hyundai $2,233 $2,663 $2,440 -16.2% -8.5%

Kia $2,425 $3,786 $2,570 -35.9% -5.6%

Nissan $3,514 $4,735 $3,781 -25.8% -7.1%

Stellantis $3,413 $5,410 $3,841 -36.9% -11.2%

Subaru $1,133 $1,745 $1,328 -35.1% -14.7%

Toyota $2,386 $2,836 $2,516 -15.9% -5.2%

Volkswagen Group $3,342 $4,491 $3,924 -25.6% -14.8%

Industry $2,959 $4,174 $3,234 -29.1% -8.5%

-$1,215 -$274

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW 7.6% 10.4% 8.2% -27.0% -7.7%

Daimler 7.0% 11.4% 6.2% -38.8% 12.2%

Ford 6.5% 10.2% 6.8% -36.4% -4.4%

GM 10.3% 14.6% 10.9% -29.5% -6.0%

Honda 6.5% 9.6% 7.2% -31.9% -9.8%

Hyundai 7.4% 9.3% 8.4% -20.5% -12.3%

Kia 8.5% 15.2% 9.1% -44.1% -6.8%

Nissan 11.4% 16.5% 12.5% -30.8% -8.9%

Stellantis 7.5% 12.9% 8.7% -41.6% -13.3%

Subaru 3.8% 5.7% 4.4% -34.3% -14.1%

Toyota 6.7% 8.2% 7.2% -17.7% -6.6%

Volkswagen Group 7.3% 10.8% 8.7% -32.0% -15.7%

Industry 7.9% 11.4% 8.7% -31.2% -9.1%

Revenue

Manufacturer May 2021 Forecast May 2020 Actual Apr 2021 Actual YOY MOM

Industry $56,721,972,825 $40,538,287,402 $56,479,277,907 39.9% 0.4%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars - all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.