PR Newswire | Mar 25, 2021 09:02AM EDT

in First Year-Over-Year Compare Since Covid-19 Impact on Industry

03/25 08:00 CDT

TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales Up 42% Year-Over-Year for March 2021 in First Year-Over-Year Compare Since Covid-19 Impact on Industry SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 25, 2021

SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent way to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,460,820 units in March 2021, up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,260,416 units, an increase of 53% from a year ago and an increase of 10% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"The pandemic's dramatic impact on the automotive industry and U.S. economy at large began in the last two weeks of March 2020 when dealerships and OEM plants shut down and stay at home mandates rolled out, which gives us our first year-over-year sales compare," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Automotive sales dropped 38% from 2019, so it's no surprise that we're seeing total sales up 42% and retail sales up 53% when compared to the March 2020. Looking at the year-over-year sales forecast, domestic brands such as GM and Ford, fared much better because parts of the country that hold a majority of trucks sales from these brands had not yet rolled out their state stay at home orders at this point last year."

"In order to get back to a full recovery we need to see improvement in fleet sales. This month we expect to see further encouraging trends in fleet as commercial activity picks up as well as some rental fleet as travel slowly resumes," added Woolard.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago and down 0.6% or $231 from February 2021. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $54.8 billion for March 2021, up 52% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 21% from last month.

"As consumers receive their stimulus checks and tax refunds, we expect demand for vehicles to increase. At the same time, production complications such as with microchips and shortages of other core materials are affecting a number of automakers, and retailers are struggling to have enough supply to meet the strong demand," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President, OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Consumers who are very specific about the vehicle they want to purchase may need to be extra patient, as they will likely have a harder time finding their first choice of color or trim when shopping."

"Vehicles are turning on dealer lots very quickly because of the supply and demand imbalance. In fact, according to TrueCar's new car inventory data, the average vehicle is in inventory for only 56 days, which is two weeks less on the dealer lot than during this exact time last year," added Tompkins. "This is also causing the price of used vehicles to increase significantly year-over-year. The average listing of the used vehicle on TrueCar is up $2,300 year-over-year, so if consumers are looking to sell their used vehicles, now is a great time."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

* Total retail sales for March 2021 are expected to be up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Fleet sales for March 2021 are expected to be down 2.5% from a year ago and up 35% from February 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Average transaction price is projected to be up 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago and down 0.6% or $231 from February 2021. * Total SAAR is expected to increase 44% from a year ago from 11.4 million units to 16.4 million units. * Used vehicle sales for March 2021 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 104% from a year ago and up 1% from February 2021. * The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.3%. * The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2021 is 70 months, a two-month decrease, when compared to the average loan term of 72 months from this time last year.

Quarterly Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

* Total unit sales for Q1 are expected to be up 10% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 4% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days. * Total retail sales for Q1 are expected to be up 21% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 7% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

March 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume.For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

YoY % MoM % YoY % Change MoM % Change Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual Change (Daily Change (Daily Selling Selling Rate) Rate)

BMW 30,562 16,301 26,393 87.5% 80.3% 15.8% 6.9%

Daimler 21,785 18,571 20,317 17.3% 12.8% 7.2% -1.0%

Ford 198,748 169,012 161,834 17.6% 13.1% 22.8% 13.4%

GM 232,535 169,952 191,846 36.8% 31.6% 21.2% 11.9%

Honda 140,062 77,153 106,328 81.5% 74.6% 31.7% 21.6%

Hyundai 68,370 36,087 50,735 89.5% 82.2% 34.8% 24.4%

Kia 57,908 45,413 48,062 27.5% 22.6% 20.5% 11.2%

Nissan 105,897 77,655 86,138 36.4% 31.1% 22.9% 13.5%

Stellantis 164,111 127,596 151,912 28.6% 23.7% 8.0% -0.3%

Subaru 63,277 32,611 48,300 94.0% 86.6% 31.0% 20.9%

Tesla 24,513 13,400 21,550 82.9% 75.9% 13.8% 5.0%

Toyota 231,965 133,198 184,249 74.2% 67.5% 25.9% 16.2%

Volkswagen Group 56,673 33,780 46,846 67.8% 61.3% 21.0% 11.7%

Industry 1,460,820 990,332 1,196,008 47.5% 41.8% 22.1% 12.7%

Retail Unit Sales

YoY % MoM % YoY % Change MoM % ChangeManufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual Change (Daily Change (Daily Selling Selling Rate) Rate)

BMW 30,025 14,846 25,931 102.2% 94.5% 15.8% 6.9%

Daimler 21,340 17,377 19,901 22.8% 18.1% 7.2% -1.0%

Ford 151,462 112,495 131,563 34.6% 29.5% 15.1% 6.3%

GM 197,743 136,443 166,641 44.9% 39.4% 18.7% 9.5%

Honda 139,478 75,901 105,882 83.8% 76.7% 31.7% 21.6%

Hyundai 62,455 30,270 46,342 106.3% 98.4% 34.8% 24.4%

Kia 51,040 36,849 46,274 38.5% 33.2% 10.3% 1.8%

Nissan 74,593 50,853 71,069 46.7% 41.0% 5.0% -3.1%

Stellantis 138,109 98,725 124,864 39.9% 34.5% 10.6% 2.1%

Subaru 60,918 30,623 46,499 98.9% 91.3% 31.0% 20.9%

Tesla 24,505 13,400 21,543 82.9% 75.8% 13.8% 5.0%

Toyota 201,930 115,551 162,434 74.8% 68.0% 24.3% 14.8%

Volkswagen Group 55,823 29,298 46,150 90.5% 83.2% 21.0% 11.7%

Industry 1,260,416 792,735 1,059,009 59.0% 52.9% 19.0% 9.9%

Fleet Unit Sales

YoY % MoM % YoY % Change MoM % Change Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual Change (Daily Change (Daily Selling Selling Rate) Rate)

BMW 536 1,455 462 -63.1% -64.6% 16.1% 7.2%

Daimler 446 1,194 416 -62.7% -64.1% 7.2% -1.0%

Ford 47,286 56,517 30,271 -16.3% -19.6% 56.2% 44.2%

GM 34,792 33,509 25,205 3.8% -0.2% 38.0% 27.4%

Honda 585 1,252 446 -53.3% -55.1% 31.2% 21.1%

Hyundai 5,914 5,817 4,393 1.7% -2.2% 34.6% 24.3%

Kia 6,868 8,564 1,788 -19.8% -22.9% 284.1% 254.6%

Nissan 31,304 26,802 15,069 16.8% 12.3% 107.7% 91.8%

Stellantis 26,002 28,871 27,048 -9.9% -13.4% -3.9% -11.3%

Subaru 2,359 1,988 1,801 18.7% 14.1% 31.0% 20.9%

Tesla 8 - 7 13.8% 5.0%

Toyota 30,036 17,647 21,815 70.2% 63.7% 37.7% 27.1%

Volkswagen Group 850 4,482 696 -81.0% -81.8% 22.1% 12.7%

Industry 200,404 197,597 136,999 1.4% -2.5% 46.3% 35.0%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change

BMW 1.8% 8.9% 1.7% -80.3% 0.3%

Daimler 2.0% 6.4% 2.0% -68.2% 0.0%

Ford 23.8% 33.4% 18.7% -28.9% 27.2%

GM 15.0% 19.7% 13.1% -24.1% 13.9%

Honda 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% -74.3% -0.4%

Hyundai 8.7% 16.1% 8.7% -46.3% -0.1%

Kia 11.9% 18.9% 3.7% -37.1% 218.8%

Nissan 29.6% 34.5% 17.5% -14.4% 69.0%

Stellantis 15.8% 22.6% 17.8% -30.0% -11.0%

Subaru 3.7% 6.1% 3.7% -38.8% 0.0%

Tesla 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Toyota 12.9% 13.2% 11.8% -2.3% 9.4%

Volkswagen Group 1.5% 13.3% 1.5% -88.7% 1.0%

Industry 17.4% 23.4% 11.1% -25.7% 56.6%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual

BMW 2.1% 1.6% 2.2%

Daimler 1.5% 1.9% 1.7%

Ford 13.6% 17.1% 13.5%

GM 15.9% 17.2% 16.0%

Honda 9.6% 7.8% 8.9%

Hyundai 4.7% 3.6% 4.2%

Kia 4.0% 4.6% 4.0%

Nissan 7.2% 7.8% 7.2%

Stellantis 11.2% 12.9% 12.7%

Subaru 4.3% 3.3% 4.0%

Tesla 1.7% 1.4% 1.8%

Toyota 15.9% 13.4% 15.4%

Volkswagen Group 3.9% 3.4% 3.9%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual

BMW 2.4% 1.9% 2.4%

Daimler 1.7% 2.2% 1.9%

Ford 12.0% 14.2% 12.4%

GM 15.7% 17.2% 15.7%

Honda 11.1% 9.6% 10.0%

Hyundai 5.0% 3.8% 4.4%

Kia 4.0% 4.6% 4.4%

Nissan 5.9% 6.4% 6.7%

Stellantis 11.0% 12.5% 11.8%

Subaru 4.8% 3.9% 4.4%

Tesla 1.9% 1.7% 2.0%

Toyota 16.0% 14.6% 15.3%

Volkswagen Group 4.4% 3.7% 4.4%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW $61,139 $60,337 $60,892 1.3% 0.4%

Daimler $62,082 $59,749 $62,153 3.9% -0.1%

Ford $44,293 $42,774 $44,125 3.6% 0.4%

GM $41,860 $40,700 $41,408 2.9% 1.1%

Honda $31,916 $29,727 $31,950 7.4% -0.1%

Hyundai $30,281 $28,343 $30,517 6.8% -0.8%

Kia $28,604 $26,360 $28,498 8.5% 0.4%

Nissan $29,512 $27,926 $29,381 5.7% 0.4%

Stellantis $43,086 $40,817 $42,747 5.6% 0.8%

Subaru $30,389 $30,344 $30,511 0.1% -0.4%

Toyota $34,708 $33,437 $34,984 3.8% -0.8%

Volkswagen Group $44,496 $41,017 $43,704 8.5% 1.8%

Industry $37,549 $36,364 $37,780 3.3% -0.6%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW $4,825 $6,318 $5,238 -23.6% -7.9%

Daimler $3,799 $5,722 $3,948 -33.6% -3.8%

Ford $3,144 $4,024 $3,388 -21.9% -7.2%

GM $4,982 $5,306 $4,533 -6.1% 9.9%

Honda $2,193 $2,715 $2,365 -19.3% -7.3%

Hyundai $2,266 $2,204 $2,268 2.8% -0.1%

Kia $2,454 $3,863 $2,677 -36.5% -8.3%

Nissan $3,514 $4,697 $3,758 -25.2% -6.5%

Stellantis $4,345 $4,956 $4,628 -12.3% -6.1%

Subaru $1,273 $1,607 $1,321 -20.8% -3.6%

Toyota $2,625 $2,659 $2,548 -1.3% 3.0%

Volkswagen $4,100 $4,502 $3,714 -8.9% 10.4%Group

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Mar 2020 Feb 2021 YOY MOM Forecast Actual Actual

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Mar 2021 Forecast Mar 2020 Actual Feb 2021 Actual YOY MOM

BMW 7.9% 10.5% 8.6% -24.6% -8.3%

Daimler 6.1% 9.6% 6.4% -36.1% -3.7%

Ford 7.1% 9.4% 7.7% -24.5% -7.5%

GM 11.9% 13.0% 10.9% -8.7% 8.7%

Honda 6.9% 9.1% 7.4% -24.8% -7.2%

Hyundai 7.5% 7.8% 7.4% -3.7% 0.7%

Kia 8.6% 14.7% 9.4% -41.5% -8.7%

Nissan 11.9% 16.8% 12.8% -29.2% -6.9%

Stellantis 10.1% 12.1% 10.8% -16.9% -6.9%

Subaru 4.2% 5.3% 4.3% -20.9% -3.3%

Toyota 7.6% 8.0% 7.3% -4.9% 3.8%

Volkswagen 9.2% 11.0% 8.5% -16.1% 8.4%Group

Industry 8.9% 11.1% 9.1% -19.4% -1.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

YoY % YoY % Change QoQ % QoQ % Change Manufacturer Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020 Change (Daily Change (Daily Selling Rate) Selling Rate)

BMW 76,519 64,692 107,299 18.3% 21.5% -28.7% -23.9%

Daimler 67,370 68,770 94,098 -2.0% 0.6% -28.4% -23.6%

Ford 503,159 514,614 538,643 -2.2% 0.4% -6.6% -0.3%

GM 626,335 616,432 767,444 1.6% 4.4% -18.4% -12.9%

Honda 338,615 298,784 366,068 13.3% 16.4% -7.5% -1.2%

Hyundai 165,313 134,830 183,943 22.6% 25.9% -10.1% -4.1%

Kia 150,935 137,945 157,755 9.4% 12.4% -4.3% 2.1%

Nissan 263,116 257,606 243,133 2.1% 4.9% 8.2% 15.5%

Stellantis 451,749 448,798 495,180 0.7% 3.4% -8.8% -2.6%

Subaru 157,977 130,591 175,382 21.0% 24.2% -9.9% -3.8%

Tesla 70,763 56,200 68,200 25.9% 29.3% 3.8% 10.8%

Toyota 584,150 495,578 660,715 17.9% 21.1% -11.6% -5.6%

Volkswagen Group 148,135 129,072 172,464 14.8% 17.9% -14.1% -8.3%

Industry 3,766,406 3,506,683 4,196,656 7.4% 10.3% -10.3% -4.2%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

YoY % QoQ % YoY % Change QoQ % Change Manufacturer Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020 Change (Daily Change (Daily Selling Selling Rate) Rate)

BMW 75,176 58,447 102,914 28.6% 32.1% -27.0% -22.0%

Daimler 65,992 64,364 89,982 2.5% 5.3% -26.7% -21.7%

Ford 383,448 339,544 435,547 12.9% 16.0% -12.0% -6.0%

GM 532,622 453,338 664,280 17.5% 20.7% -19.8% -14.4%

Honda 337,202 295,359 363,713 14.2% 17.3% -7.3% -1.0%

Hyundai 151,012 109,842 161,936 37.5% 41.2% -6.7% -0.4%

Kia 133,035 116,219 146,962 14.5% 17.6% -9.5% -3.4%

Nissan 185,337 176,354 202,259 5.1% 7.9% -8.4% -2.2%

Stellantis 380,172 318,416 426,872 19.4% 22.6% -10.9% -4.9%

Subaru 152,088 122,904 172,045 23.7% 27.1% -11.6% -5.6%

Tesla 70,739 55,752 67,774 26.9% 30.3% 4.4% 11.4%

Toyota 508,512 417,544 604,441 21.8% 25.1% -15.9% -10.2%

Volkswagen Group 145,914 114,415 155,509 27.5% 31.0% -6.2% 0.2%

Industry 3,249,708 2,756,031 3,736,505 17.9% 21.1% -13.0% -7.2%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020

BMW 2.0% 1.8% 2.6%

Daimler 1.8% 2.0% 2.2%

Ford 13.4% 14.7% 12.8%

GM 16.6% 17.6% 18.3%

Honda 9.0% 8.5% 8.7%

Hyundai 4.4% 3.8% 4.4%

Kia 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%

Nissan 7.0% 7.3% 5.8%

Stellantis 12.0% 12.8% 11.8%

Subaru 4.2% 3.7% 4.2%

Tesla 1.9% 1.6% 1.6%

Toyota 15.5% 14.1% 15.7%

Volkswagen Group 3.9% 3.7% 4.1%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020

BMW 2.3% 2.1% 2.8%

Daimler 2.0% 2.3% 2.4%

Ford 11.8% 12.3% 11.7%

GM 16.4% 16.4% 17.8%

Honda 10.4% 10.7% 9.7%

Hyundai 4.6% 4.0% 4.3%

Kia 4.1% 4.2% 3.9%

Nissan 5.7% 6.4% 5.4%

Stellantis 11.7% 11.6% 11.4%

Subaru 4.7% 4.5% 4.6%

Tesla 2.2% 2.0% 1.8%

Toyota 15.6% 15.2% 16.2%

Volkswagen Group 4.5% 4.2% 4.2%

Average Transaction Price (ATP) , Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020 YoY % Change QoQ % Change

BMW $60,226 $58,116 $59,855 3.6% 0.6%

Daimler $62,185 $60,718 $59,049 2.4% 5.3%

Stellantis $44,040 $42,568 $43,839 3.5% 0.5%

Ford $41,752 $40,011 $43,725 4.4% -4.5%

GM $31,707 $29,423 $38,035 7.8% -16.6%

Honda $30,566 $28,733 $30,683 6.4% -0.4%

Hyundai $28,472 $25,970 $28,595 9.6% -0.4%

Kia $29,414 $28,621 $28,790 2.8% 2.2%

Nissan $42,874 $40,440 $35,349 6.0% 21.3%

Subaru $30,489 $30,100 $30,583 1.3% -0.3%

Toyota $34,850 $33,415 $35,330 4.3% -1.4%

Volkswagen Group $43,931 $40,633 $42,788 8.1% 2.7%

Industry $37,631 $35,910 $38,224 4.8% -1.6%

Incentives, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020 YoY % Change QoQ % Change

BMW $5,058 $5,943 $5,409 -14.9% -6.5%

Daimler $4,015 $6,114 $4,795 -34.3% -16.3%

Stellantis $3,562 $4,696 $4,661 -24.2% -23.6%

Ford $4,818 $5,587 $4,631 -13.8% 4.0%

GM $2,296 $2,586 $4,102 -11.2% -44.0%

Honda $2,342 $2,863 $2,548 -18.2% -8.1%

Hyundai $2,671 $3,730 $2,705 -28.4% -1.2%

Kia $3,854 $4,766 $3,896 -19.1% -1.1%

Nissan $4,519 $5,037 $4,671 -10.3% -3.3%

Subaru $1,349 $1,335 $1,575 1.1% -14.3%

Toyota $2,596 $2,661 $2,714 -2.4% -4.3%

Volkswagen Group $3,981 $4,443 $4,300 -10.4% -7.4%

Industry $3,490 $4,130 $3,912 -15.5% -10.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars - all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

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