League of Ireland permutations: Any Bohemians slip-up could hand Shamrock Rovers title
Brass tacks. If Bohemians fail to defeat Shelbourne at Dalymount Park on Friday, Shamrock Rovers would secure the Premier Division title if they beat the already-relegated Sligo Rovers in Tallaght. Only three points separate Rovers from Bohs with two games remaining in the season. “We are playing to win a league, they are not,” said Stephen Bradley, the Rovers manager, following the 2-1 defeat of Bohemians on October 12th. The comment sounded premature, especially after Rovers 2-0 loss in Galway last Friday coincided with Bohs winning 2-1 against Waterford. But Bradley is an expert at mind games come this stage of the campaign. It is the eighth straight season that his Rovers squad have contested the title race. They are on course to capture a sixth League of Ireland title in seven seasons, having finished runners-up to Shelbourne in 2024. If Bohemians see off Shelbourne in the north Dublin derby and Rovers somehow lose to Sligo, the pressure will build on the Hoops ahead of the trip to Oriel Park to face Ciarán Kilduff’s Dundalk on the last night of the season, Friday, October 30th. On the same evening, Bohs would need to overcome St Patrick’s Athletic at Richmond Park to have any chance of ending a 17-year wait for major silverware. Bohs will learn on Wednesday if their captain Dawson Devoy is available for the run-in after the Republic of Ireland international was sent off following a melee on the Tallaght pitch last week. If found guilty of violent conduct, Devoy can expect a three-game suspension. He already missed Friday’s match against Waterford. Rovers teenagers Naj Razi and Michael Noonan are also before disciplinary hearings arising from the same incident. If, as expected, Shamrock Rovers take three points off Sligo Rovers but lose away to Dundalk while Bohs take six points off Shels and Pats, the title will come down to goal difference. Currently, Bohs and Rovers are level on +19 goals so Bohs 60-goal total to Rovers’ 54, gives them an advantage if the clubs finish level on points. St Pat’s manager Stephen Kenny admitted on Monday that a second loss in three days to Derry City at the Brandywell, following the 2-1 collapse at home to Shels last Friday, “more or less knocks us out” of the running. Miracles can happen; if Rovers lose their last two games and Bohs only manage to add three more points while St Pat’s bank six, their current six-goal advantage would leave Kenny’s side as the unlikeliest of champions. St Pat’s host Bohs on Friday week. Whatever happens, Rovers, Bohs and St Pat’s have qualified for Europe next season with the Europa League spot reserved for the winners of the FAI Cup final between Waterford and Derry City on November 8th at the Aviva Stadium. It is possible that Waterford will play European football from the First Division in 2027. Last Monday’s dramatic 3-2 win at home to Galway United put Graham Coughlan’s side clear of the relegation playoff, but only on goal difference. Waterford’s -10 goal difference is just three goals better than Drogheda United ahead of the clubs meeting at the RSC on Friday night. Remarkably, Waterford strikers Podge Amond and Tommy Lonergan are locked in competition to top the league’s goal scoring list. Amond’s brace against Galway this week brought his tally to 13, level with Bohs Collie Whelan. But it was Lonergan’s bullet header in the 89th minute that secured the points and extended his lead to 15 goals. Lonergan also scored four times in three recent appearances for the Ireland under-21s, including two in the 3-1 win over England to secure a Euros playoff against Finland next month. Galway are four points clear of Waterford and Drogheda so it is still possible that John Caulfield’s men could drop into the relegation playoff by losing at home to St Pat’s and away to Drogheda. Cork City earned promotion as the First Division champions, with 19 points to spare over UCD. The students face Longford Town in a two-legged promotion semi-final next Saturday and Tuesday to play the winners from Colin Healy’s Kerry FC and Bray Wanderers. The First Division playoff final is at the neutral venue on Sunday, November 1st with the promotion/relegation tie set for the following weekend. If Waterford are involved, the match will be pushed into the middle of November. Title race (Fixtures are Friday October 23 rd and 30th) Shamrock Rovers 65 points: Sligo Rovers home, Dundalk away. Bohemians 62 points: Shelbourne home, St Patrick’s Athletic away. St Patrick’s Athletic 59 points: Galway United away, Bohemians home. Relegation playoff battle Galway United 41 points: St Pat’s home, Drogheda United away. Waterford 37 points: Drogheda home, Shels away. Drogheda 37 points: Waterford home, Galway away.