US light vehicle market grows in September, but pace slows after red-hot August
Sales Summary
According to preliminary estimates, US Light Vehicle (LV) sales grew by 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) in September, to 1.32 mn units. There was one additional day in September 2026 as compared to September 2025, so sales were up by 1.3% YoY on a selling day-adjusted basis. The daily selling rate was measured at 52.8k units/day in September, down from 53.9k units/day in August. The annualized selling rate was estimated at 16.1 mn units/year in September, down from 17.1 mn units/year in August. Retail sales were estimated at 1.11 mn units in September, up by 5.0% YoY, while fleet sales were thought to total 210k units, up by 8.1% YoY. Overall Q3 sales were down by 0.4% YoY, with the same number of selling days in both years. Through the first nine months of the year, total sales were down by 2.1% YoY.
Source: GlobalData
OEM Analysis
Maintaining a streak dating back to February 2024, General Motors Group (GM) once again led the sales rankings in September, with 219k units, for a 16.6% market share. Toyota Group came in second, selling 201k units, accounting for 15.3% of total sales. For the first time since June, Ford Group (164k units) outsold Hyundai Group (163k units), excluding Ford’s Medium-Heavy Pickups. Honda Group was in fifth place, on 122k units. Taking Q3 as a whole, GM led on 670k units, followed by Toyota Group on 633k units. Hyundai Group (506k) edged ahead of Ford Group (492k) for the first time since Q2 2021. At a brand level, Toyota led the industry in September, on 171k units, ahead of Ford on 157k units, and Chevrolet on 140k units. These three brands also constituted the top three makes for Q3 overall, in the same order.
Model Analysis
The Ford F-150 looks to have re-established itself as the bestselling LV in the market, leading sales for a third straight month in September, on 40.8k units. The Tesla Model Y is thought to have come in second, on 37.3k units, pushing the Honda CR-V into third place, on 34.8k units. The Toyota RAV4 (34.2k) and Chevrolet Silverado (32.5k units) completed the top five. For Q3 as a whole, the Ford F-150 topped the sales rankings on 121k units, beating the Honda CR-V by a margin of 10k units. However, considering the first nine months of the year overall, the CR-V led on 337k units, ahead of the F-150 by just over 6k units. There is now a good chance that the F-150 will overtake the CR-V during Q4 and become the nation’s bestselling LV in the 2026 calendar year.
Segment Analysis
Compact Non-Premium SUV was once again the leading segment in September and enjoyed a strong month, with a 21.7% market share, its highest since February. Midsize Non-Premium SUV was the second-largest segment in September, with a 16.1% share. The Large Pickup segment accounted for 14.2% of total sales in September, almost equaling the segment’s 2026 high, set in July. For Q3 overall, Compact Non-Premium SUV achieved a 21.3% share, ahead of Midsize Non-Premium SUV on 16.0% and Large Pickup on 14.1%. In general, Large Pickups have been slowly building share through 2026, whereas Midsize Non-Premium SUV has been weakening, and Compact Non-Premium SUV has been steady.
David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, said: “Though Labor Day weekend itself appeared to be somewhat underwhelming, September still delivered a decent result. With that said, the market appeared to cool considerably after a remarkably strong result in August. We appear to be witnessing a slight shift in market dynamics, whereby holiday weekends that once drove significantly increased traffic for dealerships have been replaced by a more even cadence throughout an entire month, or a greater focus on the quarter-end. If automakers run special holiday sales events at all, the discounts often apply throughout the whole month. September continued many of the trends that we have seen throughout 2026 to date, with hybrids performing strongly and consumers showing an appetite for more affordable models. However, BEV sales were down sharply YoY in September, thanks to the fact that federal tax credits ended a year ago, boosting BEV sales at the time. Looking at Q3 as a whole, the market has virtually kept pace with year-ago levels. This can be considered a good performance, bearing in mind that Q3 2025 was supported by consumers pulling forward purchases of BEVs, while high fuel prices and low consumer confidence provided a challenging backdrop for the automotive industry”.
Source: GlobalData
Forecast Updates
September sales were broadly in line with expectations, and therefore we see no reason to revise our full-year 2026 forecast of 16.2 mn units. This would translate to a modest YoY decline, of 0.9%. The 2027 forecast remains at 16.2 mn units, with only a marginal YoY gain of 0.2% currently anticipated, as the industry continues to battle affordability challenges.