Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in June
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). April closing prices include some contracts signed in February, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The National index increased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted. This followed three consecutive months with a MoM decline. FHFA House Price Index Unchanged in June; Up 2.1% Year-over-Year Note: The FHFA HPI is used to set the confirming loan limits. On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 2.1 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.3 percent Quarter over Quarter U.S. house prices rose 2.1 percent between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the second quarter of 2026 rose 0.3 percent compared to the first quarter of 2026. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June remained unchanged from May . All nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The East North Central division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 4.5 percent increase from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. The Pacific division recorded the slowest appreciation slightly above 0.0 percent. emphasis added Case-Shiller House Prices From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in June 2026 The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.5% annual gain for June 2026, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month. For the 13th consecutive month, U.S. home values fell in real terms , as June’s 3.5% inflation ran roughly 2 percentage points above the 1.5% home price gain. A nearly nine percentage point gap separated June’s strongest market (Chicago +6.9% YoY) and its weakest (Seattle -2.0% YoY), underscoring a stark regional divergence in home price trends. “Homeowners and renters alike breathed a sigh of relief in June as inflation cooled to 3.5%, while the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posted a 1.5% annual gain, up from a 1.2% annual gain in May,” said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While home prices continue to decline in real terms, lower inflation and firmer nominal home price growth in June helped slow that pace of erosion. “For the fourth consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in June, followed by New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%),” Kaufman continued. “Meanwhile, Seattle recorded the largest annual decline at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%). This geographic divide reflects a years-long trend, with housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest regaining strength while many Western and Sunbelt markets soften. “Seasonal factors continue to support monthly price growth. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, both the U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite gained 0.4% month over month in June. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite gained 0.1% and 0.3% month over month in June, respectively. Because June typically falls near the peak of the homebuying season, price appreciation often moderates and market activity cools in the months ahead. “The housing market remains under pressure, with 30-year mortgage rates holding near 6.5% in June,” Kaufman concluded. “As financing costs are kept high for prospective buyers, current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years.” ... The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain for June. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.9%, up from a 2.4% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, up from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. ... The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National and 20-City Composite Indices recorded monthly gains of 0.4%, while the 10-City Composite Index posted a 0.5% gain. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 10-City, and 20-City Composite Indices posted 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.2% gains, respectively. emphasis added This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in June (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in June. The National index was up 0.1% (SA) in June. The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.9% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.5% year-over-year. Annual price changes were above expectations. And a few things to watch … The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers! CalculatedRisk Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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