Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in July
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices). May closing prices include some contracts signed in March, so there is a significant lag to this data. Case-Shiller House Prices From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in July 2026 The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.9% annual gain for July 2026 , up from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. U.S. home values fell in real terms for the 14th consecutive month, as July’s 3.4% inflation ran roughly 1.5 percentage points above the 1.9% home price gain. A nearly 9 percentage point gap separated July’s strongest market (Chicago +6.9% YoY) and its weakest (Seattle -1.6% YoY), underscoring a stark regional divergence in home price trends. “While home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month of real declines, slightly lower inflation and stronger nominal home price appreciation helped narrow the gap,” said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In July 2026, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posted a 1.9% annual gain, up from 1.6% in June. During the same period, consumer prices posted a 3.4% annual gain, down slightly from 3.5% in June. “For the fifth consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual gain in July, followed by New York (5.8%) and Cleveland (4.2%),” Kaufman continued. “Meanwhile, Seattle posted the largest annual decline for the second consecutive month, falling 1.6%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-1.1%). “The years-long East-West divide persists, with six out of the eight Eastern metropolitan markets recording greater year-over-year changes in July versus June, compared with just two of the eight Western metropolitan markets. “In a notable departure from typical seasonal patterns, the non-seasonally adjusted National and Composite indices recorded monthly gains smaller than their seasonally adjusted counterparts. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices rose 0.12% and 0.03%month over month, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted basis, they increased 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. This suggests seasonal factors weighed heavily on home prices in July. “Although inflation remained elevated at 3.4%, much of the increase was concentrated in energy, with energy and gasoline prices rising 14.7% and 24.6%, respectively,” Kaufman concluded. “By contrast, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose only 2.5% year over year. This distinction is important because persistent inflation in shelter and other core categories tends to have a more direct impact on housing affordability than energy-driven price fluctuations.” ... The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain for July. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 3.4%, up from a 3.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, up from a 2.2% rise in the previous month. ... The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices recorded monthly gains of 0.12% and 0.03% respectively; while the 20-City Composite Index posted a 0.01% decrease. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 10-City, and 20-City Composite Indices posted 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.3% gains, respectively. emphasis added The Composite 10 NSA was up 3.4% year-over-year. The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.5% year-over-year. The National index NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year. This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in July (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in July. The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in July. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The National index increased 0.29% month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted. Annual price changes were above expectations. FHFA House Price Index Up 2.6% Year-over-Year Note: The FHFA HPI is used to set the confirming loan limits. On the FHFA index: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year U.S. house prices rose nationwide in July, up 0.3 percent from the previous month, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 2.6 percent from July 2025 to July 2026. The previously reported 0.0 percent price movement in June remained unchanged. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8 percent in the Mountain division to +1.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. The 12-month changes ranged from +0.6 percent in the Mountain division to +6.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division. emphasis added And a few things to watch … The following content is for paid subscribers only. Thanks to all paid subscribers! 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