‘Price growth is moderating’: Irish estate agents give their views on new homes market in 2026
Ray Palmer-Smith Director of new homes at Knight Frank It has been a particularly busy year to date in the new homes market . Demand is strong, driven by continued economic growth and the underlying strength of the labour market along with favourable demographics, including continued strong net migration. Affordability supports are also continuing to support new homes demand and sales activity. The fact that supply is increasing is also a key positive factor. New housing completions were up 10.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025 (with a total of 16,679 units delivered to the market). While total completions for the year will not exceed 40,000 units, the market is expected to deliver a similar amount as in 2025 (at just over 36,000 units). First-time buyers continue to lead activity, and this trend will continue for the rest of the year and into 2027. The improvement in supply is beginning to have an impact on the level of price growth. After a number of years of exceptional price increases, the rate of price growth is moderating. This is evident in both the second-hand and the new homes markets. New homes prices continued to increase throughout 2025 and the first half of 2026. The pace of growth in new home prices moderated to 6 per cent, however, at the end of the second quarter from 6.4 per cent at the end of quarter one. This is a trend that we forecast will continue, largely driven by increased supply and by the level of price increases that have already been absorbed by the market. Buyers will still see new home prices increasing, but this will happen at a slightly slower pace than in recent years. Activity is set to remain strong into 2027, with more choice for first-time buyers in the form of an increasing supply of urban and commuter-location apartments, alongside options for buyers trading up as Ireland’s big developers increase their delivery volumes. Sarah-Jane Kearney Director, head of new homes at DNG As we approach the last quarter of 2026, DNG has experienced robust levels of activity both locally and regionally across Ireland. According to figures released by the CSO covering the first half of 2026, 16,679 new dwellings were completed, representing an increase of 10.85 per cent year-on-year. We likewise saw a jump in apartment completions in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025 with an increase of 4.6 per cent. We have seen a number of measures implemented in the areas of planning reform, VAT reductions on new apartments, the Housing Infrastructure Investment Fund, the Housing Activation Office and the Critical Infrastructure Act. These measures and initiatives have all helped to increase the level of housing delivery. There has been a decisive approach across the board to create the right conditions for sustained housing delivery through investment, the provision of infrastructure, and home ownership supports. Government supports such as Help to Buy (HTB), the Starter Home Purchase Scheme (formerly the Local Authority Affordable Purchase Scheme) and the First Home Scheme (FHS) have played a pivotal role in sustaining purchaser demand and making home ownership a reality for many. DNG’s 2027 Budget submission calls for the level of HTB to be increased and for regional FHS price ceilings to be reviewed to ensure the scheme remains effective. DNG has seen strong demand for mixed-tenure housing. This has been driven by a combination of these schemes’ quality design and their well-connected locations. The Croí Cónaithe scheme is helping to unlock apartment delivery and support prospective owner-occupiers in securing these apartments. It’s a new form of housing supply that is being well received in the market. Des Donnelly New homes director at Hooke & MacDonald Demand for new homes in Ireland by owner-occupiers is at an all-time high, with first-time buyers accounting for a large proportion of this. The population is growing and our economy continues to perform strongly. But while the supply of housing is increasing steadily, it’s yet to grow at a pace that’s sufficient to meet the Government’s targets or the needs of homebuyers. First-time buyers remain the key cohort when it comes to the demand for new homes, and they continue to be supported in this by both the Help to Buy and First Home schemes. In the case of Help to Buy though, the €500,000 price threshold is now 10 years old and pitched at too low a level to be of benefit to those looking to buy in Dublin and its commuter belt. The price threshold now needs to be increased if it is to keep pace with build costs and inflation. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is adding to construction costs and having a knock-on effect on the supply of new homes as developers are forced to constantly reassess the level of risk to their projects. Regulatory costs are also mounting up, putting pressure on house prices and reducing delivery viability, especially for higher-density development. These costs include the imposition of the concrete levy, the payment of carbon tax, the increase in Part V social and affordable housing provision to 20 per cent and the payment of the water levy. The building industry has been playing its part in increasing supply through the acquisition by developers of new sites, where available, and through seeking planning permission in a difficult regulatory environment. Large sites are being developed on at speed, and the homes being built on them are of superb quality. All of this is happening against an ongoing backdrop of insufficient zoned land, infrastructure deficiencies and planning delays. Separately, both the affordable purchase and Croí Cónaithe (Cities) schemes are proving to be very successful. Apartment living is increasing in popularity as a result. Frank McSharry Director of new homes at Lisney Sotheby’s International Realty As of September 2026, demand for new homes remains very strong across the market, particularly from first-time buyers. The Help to Buy and the First Home Scheme initiatives continue to support market activity, but affordability is being tested by current new-build pricing, higher household costs and the gap between Government scheme price thresholds and current market values in Dublin and the commuter belt. In our view, the HTB price cap should now be reviewed and brought into line with current new homes pricing levels. The market is delivering more homes, and visible activity on the ground has improved. However, Ireland is still carrying the weight of a long-running supply deficit, and current output is not yet where it needs to be. High-density apartment delivery is crucial, but remains the most challenging sector of the market. The 2025 VAT reduction was very helpful in regard to viability, but much of that benefit has been absorbed by higher construction and funding costs (driven by the conflict in the Middle East). Croí Cónaithe (Cities) can improve viability for high-density schemes, but only if payment timing can be accelerated, and implementation can be simplified, to give more clarity and confidence to developers and their funders. Many mid-size builders want to grow and have the capability to do so, but access to well-located land, lack of planning certainty, infrastructural deficits, and a limited availability of equity funding remain real constraints. This is especially relevant in the east and midlands, where demand is deepest and serviced land is still limited. In our view, the Government must continue to focus its efforts on addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, unlocking viable sites, improving Croí Cónaithe payment certainty, supporting mid-tier builders to scale, and keeping purchaser supports (Help to Buy in particular) aligned with current market values. Sarah Murray Director of new homes at Savills The autumn selling season traditionally follows a summer lull, with builders and developers typically waiting until after the holiday period to launch new homes. Summer 2026 broke this pattern, with a significant volume of new homes coming to the market, and sales remaining strong. Encouragingly, supply is gradually increasing, supported primarily by apartment delivery through the Croí Cónaithe (Cities) scheme, which continues to support activity in the new homes market. Should planning rules for one-off housing be relaxed? Opinions for and against On the ground, buyers have welcomed the wider range of homes released for sale. The strongest demand has been for attractively priced, well-located apartments – both with and without parking – town houses with terraced or courtyard gardens, and highly energy-efficient homes, including passive houses and apartments. Energy-efficient homes are particularly attractive to buyers conscious of both running costs and environmental impact. Trading buyers moving from older housing stock are especially conscious of this, valuing the greater comfort and lower running costs a new home can offer. The wider mix of property types on offer is giving buyers more choice across a range of price points, and we will see more activity this autumn, with upcoming releases including one, two and three-bedroom apartments, duplex apartments and town houses, alongside traditional terraced, semidetached and detached houses. Although affordability remains a challenge, this variety offers more options for first-time buyers, including those using government incentives. It also gives trading buyers options, particularly where they can use equity from the sale of their existing home. Will Coonan Director of Coonan Property As we enter into the final quarter of the year we see the outlook for new homes as being positive overall. While demand remains high and continues to outstrip supply, there is a growing sense that this situation will balance itself out over time. There has been an unlocking of lands that once were unavailable for development and this should give prospective buyers more choice in 2027. But there are still other factors that are holding the new homes market back. The main ones are a lack of infrastructure and affordability. Higher interest rates directly impact the purchaser with higher monthly payments giving people less capacity to borrow which makes it that much harder for people to make that first move. First-time buyers are always more vulnerable when it comes to upwards interest-rate movements. The Government’s Help to Buy scheme remains in place, however, for those that are eligible. Sustainability, meanwhile, has now become intermingled with the issue of affordability. Green mortgages for new homes which are customarily A-rated for energy usage are good for people’s pockets in terms of the amount paid to the mortgage lender, and in the lower amounts paid to utility companies once the new homeowner is in situ. A growing trend we have seen in 2026 is that of “right sizing”, or downsizing. More people are looking at whether their homes are still the right fit for them. This trend is beginning to increase the number of larger family homes on the market, and this movement of property is good for everyone. Ivan Gaine Director of commercial and new homes at Sherry FitzGerald The new homes market and general house-building sector has demonstrated strong resilience in the face of a lot of challenges this year. Forecasts approaching 40,000 completions are to be welcomed and are across all tenures with only around a third of completions coming for sale to the private market. Within the home building industry, the Government’s housing plan Delivering Homes Building Communities has been broadly welcomed. It’s not yet a year old and there is a lot that’s yet to happen. From a housing delivery and business perspective, we are focused on two of the key priorities: zoning sufficient and serviced land and creating the right environment for investment. The scorecard for the great rezoning is mixed and momentum has perhaps drifted, with different local authorities showing greater or lesser ambition. It’s an onerous and technical process that needs local authorities to be equipped with sufficient technical ability to prepare appropriate development plans. The push for higher densities can be a double-edged sword and in the wrong location density can result in heavy subsidy and greater reliance on the State. Development plans need flexibility to deliver what’s viable and affordable as opposed to what is aspirational from an urban design perspective. Simply put, to have more plans, we need more planners. Big decisions were made around creating the right environment for investment to include the changes to Rent Pressure Zones and VAT reduction. In the face of a rising interest rate cycle, however, and with much heavier construction inflation, the impact of these changes have been somewhat negated. With yields moving outwards, it’s incredibly important that current State interventions are maintained and enhanced in the absence of alternatives. For the past number of years our internal theme has been “Tenures and Typographies” and in 2026 we have seen meaningful progress following compact settlement design changes and many more apartments coming to the market supported by the Croí Cónaithe scheme. Both the Land Development Authority and various local authorities have been preparing projects to bring to market and we are seeing much more evidence of this in recent months. Maintaining momentum is really important in a high-inflation environment, and in this regard, the zoning and infrastructure agenda is going in the right direction. We just need to ensure we’re consistent when it comes to delivery.