SOME Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

[Red line = VWAP | Yellow\/gold line = 1 Standard Deviation of VWAP $where most of the upper and lower tests happen$ | Green line = 2 Standard Deviations of VWAP $where the spike was allowed to go$](https://preview.redd.it/6zmuobfj6fcg1.png?width=2525&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a1940366ad328cf18c6233b65c318ea54f1d4f5)
Here is today's GME update.
I want to reiterate the goal of these posts: this week and next week present a unique window to observe how brokers/dealers/MM manage stress around two large OI dates.
Because time is compressed, volume is relatively low, and stress levels are predefined by strike prices, this setup can reveal how risk is being handled in real time. I'm not trying to predict outcomes, I'm just reporting what the data is showing.
I did today’s update a little differently and included a screenshot of the chart with timestamps so it’s clear what happened and why each moment mattered to the end result.
I used ChatGPT to help organize and analyze the write-up, but everything here is based on observed data. You can find the rest of this week’s updates in my post history. **NFA**
**Intraday Timeline — Jan 9 (Why the Day Resolved the Way It Did)**
**1. Open → \~9:45 AM: Early Risk Deferral**
**What happened**
* Price opened **below yesterday's VWAP**, despite being near heavy call OI.
* Immediate downside pressure set a lower reference early.
* No urgency in options (no ATM call sweeps, IV stable).
**Why it mattered**
* Opening below VWAP avoided triggering passive gamma early.
* This front-loaded the “damage” to same-day calls while liquidity was thin.
* Time was established as the dominant variable instead of price.
**Interpretation**
This behavior is more consistent with a structural setup than directional retail selling.
**2. \~9:45–10:20 AM: Price Migration Lower**
**What happened**
* Multiple **off-exchange DF prints** stepped the accepted price down:
* \~21.20 → \~21.15 → \~21.08
* Each occurred after tests, not during panic.
* No follow-through selling waves.
**Why it mattered**
* This wasn’t just “holding below VWAP” anymore.
* It **redefined the value area** lower, reducing gamma sensitivity.
* Time decay alone was not enough; price had to be *migrated during the first hour of trading to keep risk down*.
**State shift**
* From *passive avoidance* → *incremental risk reduction*.
**3. \~10:45–10:47 AM: First True Inflection (VWAP Defense)**
**What happened**
* **Large Off-exchange DF cluster (\~350k shares)** printed *at VWAP*.
* Occurred **during an upside attempt**.
* Crucial: **lit volume stayed active afterward (normally the prints hit and then get removed from lit volume, this one didn't)**.
**Why this mattered**
This was the most important moment of the morning.
* DF at VWAP + active lit volume ≠ routine internalization.
* It behaved more like **boundary enforcement** than passive demand absorption.
* Time decay alone wasn't working; **active defense was required to cap upside**.
**Classification**
* Transition from *passive decay* → *active VWAP defense*.
* This was the first sign of the day that raised eyebrows **because active measures became necessary to cap upside at a critical point**.
**4. \~11:00–11:30 AM: Passive Defense Attempt**
**What happened**
* Visible offer walls near \~$21.30 replaced Off-exchange prints temporarily.
* Price stalled but did not accelerate.
* Options premiums continued bleeding.
**Why it mattered**
* This was a **lower-intensity attempt to hold the line**.
* Suggests earlier DF bought flexibility, but not a lot of flexibility.
* The market still wanted to probe higher.
**5. \~12:05–12:08 PM: Off-exchange DF prints Cluster (tight window)**
**What happened**
* Smaller DF cluster printed **after** failed VWAP reclaim.
* Occurred during thinning liquidity, low urgency.
**Why it mattered**
* Price was moved down, but there wasn't far for it to go
* VWAP had defined a window of $21.16-$21.26
* This was the smallest window of 1 standard deviation of VWAP for the day
* Price was unstable, with little room to move
**Key distinction**
* Price had defined a tight window, but there was too much time until close to stay there comfortably
**6. \~12:40–12:55 PM: Controlled Pressure Release**
**What happened**
* Price **broke and accepted above 21.50** briefly.
* No immediate DF suppression.
* Volume expanded briefly, then collapsed.
**Why this mattered**
This move appeared to be **tolerated** rather than a loss of control.
Mechanically, it:
1. Let short-dated calls go ITM → encouraged profit-taking/rolling
2. Allowed dealer hedges to adjust without panic
3. **Widened the VWAP band**, reducing reflexive sensitivity later
**Critical insight**
This spike didn’t create strength; it widened the window price could move for the rest of the day. **NOTICE HOW THE LOWER 1 STANDARD DEVIATION LINE DOES NOT CHANGE LEVEL**
**7. Post-Spike → \~3:00 PM: Passive Decay**
**What happened**
* Price faded on **declining volume**
* No late-day urgency, no aggressive defense
* Off-exchange share remained high
**Why it mattered**
* Same-day gamma was largely neutralized.
* No need for further intervention.
* The absence of action became the confirmation.
* **They felt comfortable releasing SOME pressure with enough time left in the day to close within a window they could manage.**
**End-of-Day Conclusion**
**1) What today actually was**
* A **managed risk day**, not price discovery
* Volatility compression → inventory adjustment → controlled release
* Risk deferred, reshaped, and minimized, not eliminated entirely
**2) What it was not**
* Not clearly retail-driven
* Not a squeeze attempt
* Not random
* Not max-pain targeting
**3) What closing above Max Pain meant for today:**
To push the price down further today would have required one of:
1. **Sustained lit selling**
2. **Net short inventory creation**
3. **Repeated visible intervention**
4. **Synthetic pressure that invites dip-buying**
Each of those:
* Introduces **new exposure**
* Increases **regulatory and balance-sheet risk**
* Risks **reloading call interest at better prices**
* Can **reignite gamma** if price snaps back
In contrast:
* Holding price *near* max pain:
* Burns most of the same call premium
* With far less effort
* And far less visibility
**4) What Was** ***Not*** **Resolved Heading into Next Week**
**Structural Pressure**
* Repeated VWAP defense tells us:
* Pressure still exists
* It was managed, not closed
* Off-exchange dominance + low volume = **inventory still being carried**
* **The price did not go down to Max Pain, which meant it was not the cheapest OR safest way to resolve risk today**
**5) Next-Week Call Sensitivity**
* Evidence from today:
* Call activity rolled, not disappeared
* Max pain shifted lower due to **OI movement**, not price collapse
* That means exposure **migrated forward** rather than being extinguished.
**Bottom line:**
Today was frustrating to watch. It 'resolved' without forcing a decision, which we've seen many times before.
However, Jan 16th now carries a cleaner but more sensitive version of the same structural tension.
I'm trying to keep these updates as fact-based as possible, but I may make another post looking at how these risk management behaviours compare over a larger time frame - specifically, since the warrant distribution.
I may update on Sunday night or Monday after the close on what to look for next week.

**TL;DR:**
Today wasn’t about price discovery; it was about managing risk with time.
Price opened below VWAP to front-load decay, then was incrementally migrated lower to reduce gamma sensitivity. When time alone wasn’t enough, VWAP was actively defended.
The midday spike above 21.50 wasn’t loss of control; it widened the VWAP range, let near-dated calls go ITM, and allowed hedges to adjust without panic. Importantly, the lower VWAP band never moved, confirming containment, not strength.
By the close, same-day gamma was largely neutralized, but structural pressure wasn’t resolved. Risk was carried forward, not eliminated. Jan 16 now holds a cleaner, more sensitive version of the same tension.

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