CAGR
CALIFORNIA GRAPES INTL
stock OTC

Theyre all traps. Theyre charging you high expense ratios for watered down equity exposure. Theyre duping the gullible into thinking theyve solved investing by selling upside during a bull market.
Why do you think so many providers like granite shares have popped up in the last 5 years offering tons and tons of covered call ETFs charging 1%+? Its an easy buck to make. So many of these funds are not going to see the end of the decade. You should be demanding better returns for 1% MER, but instead people flock to them just to lag the underlying by multiple percent CAGR.

This newsletter is meant to be a reliable source of high-quality ideas you can integrate into your process. I believe we’ve met that goal in the first year.
Out of 7 posted ideas:
* **The average return of the idea is 52%**
* The average CAGR of the idea is 72%
* One closed idea (GTX) is a **2x bagger**
* One still-opened idea (ISSC) is a **3x bagger**
* Only GBFH went down 3%; **the other ideas are all up.**
I post infrequently, but only my highest-conviction ideas, which I am invested in myself.

The greatest tools we have as investors is ***patience*** and ***rationality***. If I am unable to find a company I understand and want to own at a reasonable price, then I am content to do nothing. While I'm doing nothing, cash is sitting in something that earns a small return.

When you ask about 5-10 baggers, my immediate concern is: over what timeframe? 10 year? 15 years? Understand that investing in a company that appreciates 500% in something like 5 years is relying more on luck than any skill or intelligence. Yes, it happens. Yes, someone certainly identified the likelihood of a great return. However, the stars have to align for it to happen on a rare occasion to a company you actually own.

My aim is to find a company I can understand that I believe has a reasonable chance of returning 15% CAGR over the long-term, not 35-45% over a short period of time. The latter becomes more of a gambling scenario, rather than intelligent investing.

No one said they're rare. Here's a thought experiment since you're not understanding.
I think 10x revenue multiple is great value and I buy every day (or biweekly) whenever its under 10x. AMD grows revenue 35% CAGR the next 5 years. Every additional share I buy is growing in value 35% YoY if we maintain a 10x multiple. That's just from sales growth. If that multiple expands to say 15x (where it was after the OpenAI deal was announced then I get additional upside from multiple expansion). If it expands to Broadcom level multiples (25x) then not only does every share grow 35% YoY I get an additional 150% on top from multiple expansion.
This is called accumulation. You can accumulate shares over time. You don't need to buy shares once and call it a day.

I also have doubts about that 35% CAGR if they don't announce a new mi450 customer in the next 6 months.

Objectively speaking the market is still very skeptical that Lisa will deliver on her 35% CAGR and 35% operating margin the next 3-5 years with multiple multi gigawatt scale customers for MI450 and beyond. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride until MI450 revenue and earnings start to get realized in Q3. Unless they announce another gigawatt scale customer with a healthier balance sheet than OpenAI in between now and then.
I personally sleep soundly through the volatility as I believe this will be a 1T+ market cap in the next couple years. It will be bumpy and then the big moves will happen all at once. Gonna be impossible to time and you risk missing the moves trading in and out.

Same as they were for 2025. HEI, BRK.B, F, WSO, COST, and VT (last is not a stock, obviously ... I moved out of a couple individual stocks and into that last year). I did not beat the S&P500 last year (16.8% vs. 17.something) but I usually don't in big up years. I tend to be crash-proof, though (e.g, in 2022, I was up 3% while the S&P500 was down almost 20%). I'm still beating VOO CAGR by about 2% over the last 17 years.

**NVDA CES Keynote speech (Summary from BofA):**
* NVDA - bofA maintain buy PT 275 after CES keynote:
* "CEO Jensen Huang outlined continued “very high” demand for AI computing and announced the new Vera Rubin AI platform.
* Highlights include:
* (1) AI scaling remains on track, with 5x token generation and 10x token cost reduction per year; (2) six new AI chips announced (more below) for the Vera Rubin platform slated for 2H26; (3) a new pod-level context memory storage platform; (4) NVDA continues to run every single major LLM today; (5) AI to be funded by modernization of AI (repurposing $10tn of computing funding last decade) and shifting of R&D methods; (6) Groq/SRAM deal could be beneficial for extremely low-latency workloads; (7) AI is scaling beyond LLMs into physical AI (Alpamayo announced for AV); and (8) China H200 demand is there, but still awaiting licenses.
* We continue to highlight NVDA’s continued dominance in AI compute, networking, system, and ecosystem, trading at just \~19x CY27E P/E or in-line with the broader S&P 500 despite its superior >35% EPS CAGR and >40% FCF. Maintain Buy."

**AMD keynote speech:**
* AMD also highlighted robotics as Lisa Su brought Generative Bionics CEO Daniele Pucci on stage to debut the GENE.01 humanoid robot. It’s powered by AMD CPUs and GPUs and is aimed at industrial environments. AMD is an investor.
* AMD also leaned into the “space is the ultimate edge environment” message. Blue Origin’s John Couluris said they’re using AMD’s hardened, high-temp embedded hardware, including Versal, for a next-gen flight computer that’s intended to scale to future lunar landing missions.
**GENERAL NEWS:**
* US PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ENVOY TO GREENLAND: I DO NOT THINK TRUMP IS READY TO SEIZE GREENLAND; TRUMP BACKS INDEPENDENT GREENLAND
* Trump: May subsidize oil companies rebuilding in Venezuela; U.S. may reimburse oil companies for rebuilding Venezuela infrastructure. Project could take less than 18 months, per NBC.

**MAG7:**
* TSLA sales in Germany fell 48% YoY in December to 2,032 units. Full-year sales in Germany dropped 48.4% to 19,390 units. Note: That’s against a stronger backdrop, with Germany’s EV registrations up 43.2% in 2025 to 545,142.
* AAPL - BofA on AAPL, PT 325. While global growth was solid in December, we note China experienced weaker y/y performance (Fig 11), which was likely affected by tougher comps, slower usage (weaker overall economy), and possible lower commission. Maintain Buy on strong capital returns, eventual leadership in AI at the edge, and optionality from new products/markets.
**OTHER COMPANIES:**
* VST - shares are trading higher after agreeing to buy Cogentrix Energy from Quantum Capital funds for about $4B, adding 10 modern natural gas plants totaling \~5,500 MW of capacity.
* CDNS - to integrate Cuda X technology into chip design software - Huang at CES
* ZETA - teaming up with OPenAI to power Athena
* NBIS - will deploy \~80MW of new data center capacity in Israel.The buildout ramps from Q3 through early 2027 and implies roughly a 10x expansion of Nebius’ Israel footprint within about a year.
* LMT signed a framework deal with the US Department of War to ramp PAC-3 MSE interceptor output from about 600 a year to 2,000 a year over the next seven years.
* AIG - CEO Peter Zaffino will step down by mid 2026 and move to executive chair.
* SHAK - Deutsche Bank upgrades to Buy from Hold, PT 105 from 115. We are constructive on the food distributors broadly with a path to upside to numbers and undemanding valuations. We are also upgrading SHAK to Buy given what we see as a compelling catalyst path in 1H26, a still strong growth outlook, and a near-trough valuation."
* DLR, EQIX - Deutsche initiates coverage with Buy Rating, and PT of 180 and 915 respectively. We are constructive on both Digital Realty and Equinix, as major beneficiaries of (1) the continued expansion of the digital economy broadly, and (2) the emergence of AI as a potential driver of meaningfully higher demand for digital infrastructure over time. Digital Realty (Buy, $180) is our top pick, based on strong thematic tailwinds around AI, with upside from lease renewals and a robust pipeline of capacity, which should lead to sustainable double-digit returns
* CMG - named top pick at Deutsche. CMG a top pick, with a more aggressive sales playbook to support improving fundamentals, sentiment and valuation. SBUX is also a top (and out-of-consensus) call, as we believe SBUX could surprise to the upside on SSS, think sentiment has become overly negative on the brand's prospects, and give more credibility to expectations to return to historical margins.
* DRUG - reported Phase 2 data for BMB-101 in drug-resistant epilepsy. In 11 evaluable absence-seizure patients, median absence seizures fell 73.1% (p=0.012); in 6 evaluable developmental/ encephalopathic epilepsy patients, major motor seizures fell 63.3%. 18 of 24 completed maintenance; no treatment-related serious AEs.
* LCID - says the Gravity SUV won MotorTrend’s 2026 “Best Public Charging Experience” award.
* QBTS - says it hit an “industry-first” by demonstrating scalable on-chip cryogenic control for gate-model qubits, cutting the wiring needed to scale systems while maintaining fidelity.
* RDW - completed payload integration for ESA’s Σyndeo-3 satellite in Belgium, packing 10 EU-funded tech demo payloads focused on debris monitoring, deorbiting, and thermal control. Launch is slated for Q4 2026 from Andøya (Norway) on Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum.
* GRMN - said it’s expanding its partnership with Qualcomm to build the Nexus automotive High Performance Compute platform, powered by Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Elite Platform for automotive, targeting vehicle programs starting in 2029.
* INTC - has confirmed that the first 18A products will be shipped by the end of 2025.
* CMPS - announced a strategic collaboration with Radial Health to develop delivery models for investigational COMP360 psilocybin treatment, pending FDA approval.
* xAI bought five 380MW natural gas turbines from South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility to help power its Memphis AI campus, with Elon Musk confirming the report by replying “True” to a SemiAnalysis post.
* VIAV - launched a bidirectional test + certification platform for hollow core fiber, built on OneAdvisor 800 with 8100 Series OTDR modules, dispersion modules, and ReportPRO software tuned for HCF. VIAVI says it’s the first all-in-one medium/long-range solution for HCF and has been validated with 3 hyperscale data center operators.
* ULCC - BofA downgrades to udnereprform from Neutral, lowers PT to 4 from 5.
* UPST - Trust initiates coverage with buy rating, Pt 59. "Upstart runs an AI-driven underwriting platform that matches borrowers with 100+ bank and credit union partners, using non-traditional data to predict credit risk more accurately than traditional FICO-based systems. From the company’s inception, Upstart’s core offering is anchored around GenAI, including its underwriting model. While its model offers significant improvements to traditional credit models, it is still highly exposed to the credit cycle, and in our view offers investors a levered way to play U.S. easing rates and stable/improving consumer credit."
* PLTR - Trust initiates with buy rating, PT 223. We acknowledge the significant valuation premium PLTR commands, but continue to see a Buy opportunity given its significant opportunity to drive GenAI adoption for governments and enterprises. PLTR has seen material improvement in its momentum driven by the release of AIP, with top-line growth accelerating to 63% y/y from 13% y/y since 2Q23, with a larger portion of this growth flowing down to operating margins, reaching 50%+ margins. While much of the momentum has come from its U.S. business, we see international as a significant opportunity. We view PLTR as a best-in-class AI asset."
* MU - reportedly plans to ramp HBM4 capacity to \~15k wafers/month this year, about 30% of its \~55k total HBM capacity, as NVDA Vera Rubin moves into production.
* Airlines -The FAA proposed new rules that would force airlines to upgrade or replace radio altimeters to prevent interference tied to an FCC upper C band spectrum sale. The FAA estimates $4.49B in total undiscounted retrofit costs. VEEV - board approved a $2B Class A share repurchase program. Runs 2 years and can be executed via open market, private deals, or 10b5-1 plans. CFO Brian Van Wagener cited “robust cash generation” and “financial outperformance.”
* MCHP pre announced Q3 sales above previous guidance. CEO says recovery is showing up across most end markets as channel/customer inventory correction improves, bookings were strong, and March-quarter backlog started higher.

Why Kotak Arbitrage over Kotak Conservative Debt Hybrid? If your horizon is 5 years, the debt one might at least give you 8-9% CAGR, and will only increase the if the broader stock market also does well. I’ve parked my emergency fund in the arbitrage fund, while parking my debt component in the hybrid schemez

If you are going to use screens this is just the starting point. Then you need to understand why they trade where they trade. I don’t use screens because I like stocks that don’t show up on screens for bad reasons. My biggest position is FRFHF. It screens awful but has a very good chance (90%+) of a 15-30% CAGR over the next 5 years.

What we want is Div growth and CAGR, if you look at McDonald the last 5 yr, it’s up 25% with a 2.5% yield. Div also increase by around 5%. I think MSFT is the best example

I've owned FCNTX Contrafund for 37 years (was an option in my first 401k right out of high school). 0.63% in maintenance fees, but worth it!
15.49% CAGR over 37 years, a gain of 20,800% (3.9x more than the S&P500). I may never sell it, the plan is to make it part of my legacy trust.
I've also owned another Fidelity actively managed mutual fund the same length of time with slightly higher gains 24,400% ROI (4.5x S&P500).

Hi, I'm a bit confused about some of the points, so I will ask some clarifications to better help you.
In general, it's a bad idea to be happy for receiving Dividends when the price of the stock dropped more than you earned in dividends (and even if the two numbers even out it's not even a 1:1 comparison, but let's keep it simple).
1. The fact that you lost \~6K in market value tells nothing if we don't know how much you invested. It's very different lose 6K on a 6 Million portfolio, than to lose it on a 25K portfolio.
2. The numbers don't add up: even considering the highest dividend yield (O, as the others give petty amounts) that is around 5% yield, the 93 EUR don't match the \~6K loss (unless you have huge exposure on something that does not give dividends, which is misleading here).
3. If you go for dividends (of which I'm not sure given the 2 points above), it is CRUCIAL to check the Price-Only CAGR, then the Dividend Yield, and make your own considerations. I do a table with columns for the last 10, 7, 5, 3, 1 years and compare them.
Trying to understand your overall allocation and breakdown...

I don't know about fund managers, but I can tell you that my just over nine-year CAGR is 27%.
Outperformance really is possible if you know what you're doing. Retail investors aren't constrained like fund managers are.
If you want wealth, you need to forget index investing and swing at great pitches.

A stupid trader with a plan will beat the smartest trader without a plan. It sounds like you have a DCA plan so stick with it.
If I purchased $100 ETH weekly from Jan 2023 thru December 2025 it would have a 7.5% CAGR over the ~3 years of DCA with weekly purchase (~24% overall gain) but surely enough back in August over that same time period but 3 months in the past I would have purchased $13,600 in ETH with a $15,000 gain and be up 110% on the investment (total value ~$28,500 around August 24, 2025).
You can walk away from your plan now, or stick to it for another couple years. The reason why I say this is because come April 2025 I would have spent $11,800 on 5.231 ETH for it to only be valued at $8,250 Around April 16, 2025 with -30% loss.
Don’t give up, stick to your plan, stay disciplined, and don’t trade emotionally. The worst thing you can do right now is sell at loss, this is not appropriate damage control.
Also what are/did you DCA into? If you put all your money into the market November 2024 thru Jan 2025, yes you are going to be bleeding VERY hard. If you were so willing to purchase crypto when it was at its peak and ATH across the board, what’s stopping you now that you can buy significantly cheaper?
It’s all perspective. I don’t know your situation in full but selling right now, present time, might be one of the worst things you could do - unless you sell some for taxation offset, but that should be part of a “plan” and you need to stick to it.

In undergrad, I was addicted to hyper tuning models and playing datasets. Won a few Maggie competitions. Now I’m doing the same thing but with financial models and making 60-70% CAGR on the side.
It super addicting.

If Bitcoin holds a 30% CAGR it will take around 6 years.

Yes but I have better strategies.
MA crossovers have a low CAGR compared to my other entry signals. That's the main drawback.

You're getting caught up and emotional over daily price swings. Do you have a long term bull thesis? I believe AMD is easily 1T+ market cap in the next few years with 2T+ feasible by 2030. Lisa has said they will have multiple multi-gigawatt customers beyond OpenAI for MI400 and beyond. She has given guidance for 35% CAGR and 35% operating margin the next 3-5 years. An impressive technology road map laid out, excellent hardware, and rapidly improving software. Deep partnerships with hyperscalars.
It makes it much easier to sleep easy if you have confidence in long term execution and ignore the daily noise. No one can consistently time short term price movements. The vast vast majority of traders lose money long term or at the very least underpeform the index.
What's the difference between buying at 325B and 370B when they have 1-2T potential over the next few years?

Following congress imho is a scam. Nancy Pelosi supposedly made huge gains with insider trading. Search the numbers, she averaged 14.5% CAGR over her entire carreer as an investor, which is barely 4% more than the SP500. That's beating the market, but definitely not as impressive as everyone makes it out to be. She has been investing for 38 years, that's the impressive part.
To answer your question in 2 parts.
1) If we knew things certainly, we would be billionaires. You can never be certain in markets. People thought the AI bubble was going to pop at 4500, at 5000, certainly at 6000. Here we are at 7000 and still going.
2) For 98% of people, especially new to investing, it's way more profitable and easier to just DCA SP500 and chill. Focus on your irl income and DCA more, you will make great money on long term. Unless you want to become a full time trader, don't trade/time the market. I'm not against some diversification accross different assets. Get some gold, commodities, real estate etc. but I wouldn't start going to specific genres of stocks.
If you go long term stocks, just go SP500. Commodities and metals could mentally be nicer to have some diversification, but at the end of the day it's all about risk management and consistent time in the game.
Chances you will do better than the market over your entire carreer by predicting bubble pops is very very slim.
Figure out a strategy and stick with it. Do thorough research and make a big thesis (or small) of your strategy with everything on it. Buys, DCA's, TP, risk per assetclass etc.
Don't make it too hard for yourself, take it from me.