TOVX
Theriva Biologics, Inc.
stock NYSEAMERICAN

Anyone in TOVX

Hey, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the biotech space and finally got the time to run a deeper dive on several biotech names using a tool I built. It pulls recent market narratives, cross-checks them against SEC filings and industry publications\*, and synthesizes everything into a structured report with links to original sources.
After reading through all the reports, here are the three that stood out for me:
**1. Xilio Therapeutics (XLO)**
* **Business:** Developing tumor-activated immunotherapies using a proprietary masking platform, with partnered programs at Gilead, AbbVie, and Roche
* **The Bull Case:** \~$32M market cap with \~$137.5M cash. The market prices in failure, but the platform has already attracted three major pharma partners. Vilastobart hit 40% ORR in plasma TMB-high MSS mCRC, and the masking tech shows real therapeutic index improvement for IL-12 and CTLA-4.
* **Upcoming Catalysts:** Nasdaq compliance resolution by March 30, 2026 (likely reverse split), XTX501 (PD-1/masked IL-2) IND submission mid-2026, continued efarindodekin alfa Phase 2 enrollment, and H1 2027 Gilead $75M transition option decision.
* **Risk:** Lumpy partner revenue and binary value tied to 2027 Gilead decision. Burn is manageable but runway only extends to Q2 2027.
* **Full report:** [XLO](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/WkSFshixP2rE)
**2. Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL)**
* **Business:** Single-asset oncology play developing azenosertib, an oral WEE1 inhibitor for Cyclin E1-positive platinum-resistant ovarian cancer and uterine serous carcinoma
* **The Bull Case:** $212M market cap with $280.7M cash ($3.88/share) and zero debt—literally below net cash. FDA granted Fast Track, lifted the prior hold, and aligned on registration-intent DENALI trial. Retrospective data showed mid-30% ORR with \~5-6 month response duration. Burn has dropped to $27-35M/quarter after 40% headcount cut, with runway into late 2027.
* **Upcoming Catalysts:** DENALI Part 2 enrollment updates, TETON uterine serous carcinoma data 1H 2026, and any partnership or financing moves that derisk Phase 3 funding.
* **Risk:** Cyclin E1 assay validation unproven at scale, WEE1 class toxicity history (prior sepsis deaths), and eventual need for dilutive capital before approval.
* **Full report:** [ZNTL](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/MCIhXbiyleRl)
**3. Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)**
* **Business:** Developing tegoprubart, an anti-CD40L antibody for organ transplantation, targeting kidney, islet, and xenotransplant indications
* **The Bull Case:** Down 49% to $2.10 after BESTOW missed eGFR superiority, but the safety story is huge: \~2% new-onset diabetes vs \~17% on tacrolimus, 1.6% tremor vs 25%. 24-month Phase 1b data showed zero rejection, graft loss, or diabetes. Islet data delivered 6/6 insulin independence.
* **Upcoming Catalysts:** FDA guidance on Phase 3 kidney design in 2026, BESTOW extension data maturation, and initial islet/xenotransplant regulatory conversations.
* **Risk:** Higher rejection rates vs tacrolimus in BESTOW, binary Phase 3 execution, and safety-led approach needs regulatory validation.
* **Full report:** [ELDN](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/sjsNiBLOkSVW)
I'm also sharing the reports for other names in case anyone wants to go deeper:
* [DNLI](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/fxeBqcrIRZpW)
* [GANX](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/sy9wXSjWZrzB)
* [TOVX](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/kUMNSlMRhB31)
* [BHVN](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/zoyOTgdv6oRD)
* [EXEL](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/xagCUPdk72FV)
* [VRTX](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/AqjeL7cVvLvT)
* [AXSM](https://app.deepvalue.tech/report-share/DZIsaahRyHTo)
\* It sources from these industry publications:
* Pharma Manufacturing
* Pharmaceutical Technology
* FiercePharma
* FierceBiotech
* [Labiotech.eu](http://Labiotech.eu)
* GenomeWeb

🍋 $DRMA - just posted SqueezeFinder screenshot. Ready to explode with momentum
🤞🏼 $TOVX - highest penny stock on squeezefinder and awaiting phase 3 results
💸 $NUKK- 52 wk low yesterday. Earnings 2/9