WE Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Fantastic.

Let me settle each of these out with you openly here:
\>ETF creation going parabolic alongside FTDs: You're right, and that's exactly the mechanism I'm documenting in in this post, I call it "ETF Cannibalization." The AP creates new ETF shares, redeems them to extract the underlying basket (including GME), uses those extracted shares to satisfy delivery obligations, and dumps the illiquid residuals as FTDs. It's not FTDs *or* creation, it's creation *as the vehicle for* generating locates. Your observation that "expanding ETFs then failing to deliver the underlying" is the signal is exactly what the N-CEN data shows.
So we're on the same page about effect, you just arrived at the comprehension differently.
I like to think of it as if Mcdonalds could acquire chicken nuggets by selling happy meals while leaving the chicken nuggets out. This only works when the happy meal has chicken nuggets, and BOY HOWDY does XRT have a lot of tasty nuggets in it.
It expresses how downright criminal and hollow the entire charade is when you think 'okay im going to make a happy meal, deliver the chicken nuggets out of it, and make the ETF hold a Failure to Receive chicken nuggets'. NO it does not show up on the marketplace as a problem, because all it does is suppress prices. That is... until the customer eats someone else's nugget by selling their share. Then things get funny, cause market makers lose money.
\>T+33 and the echo effect: I haven't modeled the T+33 echo the way you have, but the DTCC RECAPS calendar in Part 4 may explain part of the "why." The bimonthly mark-to-market on aged fails in the Obligation Warehouse creates a second forcing function on top of the Reg SHO close-out timeline. The echo you're seeing could be the T+33 FTD close-out colliding with RECAPS repricing windows. Would love to see if your model's strongest signals cluster around RECAPS dates — that would be a clean cross-validation.
I swear to god, assuming that they were re-FTD'ing here improved the full model substantially. Taking that, then presuming a rally was settlement resulted in waaaayyy too much granularity in prediction of the underlying. Look into that part.
ALSO FUCK YEAH RECAPS RECAPS RE CAPS RE CAPS!!!! \*chanting\*
Recap days are the days when shit hits the FAN. They are the days when margin are fucking CALCULATED! You can effectively do whatever shenanigans you fucking want with your shares, but did you have the cash to back it up? We find out on RECAP day. And if you didnt? welcome to may of 2025. a 2 day rally to 35/share. I fucking love recap days blowing up someone's attempts to fuck us over.
TAKE THAT A STEP FURTHER THOUGH: What happens when we look for key swap gamma pumps that happen ON TOP of RECAP dates? Then we reaaaally start cooking with gas. Those are the biggest times and places where i expect those 2 or 3 day explosions in stock price. And im not talking about my little 3 year fractals i call swaps: I'm talking about the big boys richard used to track with stars. When everything is pushed to the limit, its recaps we love to see.
i love RECAPS so much, let me harp on it more. Take the point of view of the obligations warehouse for just a second with me:
1. a trade in OW is both a FTD (fail to deliver) and FTR (fail to receive) in 95-99% of cases the only way the trade is forced to occur isn't bc NSCC does anything. that is actually absurdly rare. Lehman's collapsed caused it back in 2008 in their old system. And most likely jan 2021 did. but otherwise, the only time trades are forced is by the FTR party.
2. it goes like this, I buy share on fidelity some other broker FTDs that trade, lets say its schwab and they FTD so in ow now lives a trade between schwab and fidelity that is ex-cns fidelity doesn't care to force the trade through. why do it? while the trade is FTD fidelity gets to sit on my cash and earn interest. meanwhile schwab for some reason doesn't want to deliver the share so they are paying nscc 3% annualized rent.
3. suddenly on some later date, gme is up. i sell my shares. fidelity panics, says, wait i don't have this share and now i have to give it to some other broker c, like TDA. quick, force schwab to deliver so we can deliver
4. this is why you get a daisy chain of forced delivery by FTR parties and volume is 10x normal
5. thomas petterfy literally told us this. he said word for word if apes had SOLD their shares/options jan 20th 2021 the system would have melted! he also said exercised which ppl focus on, but the bigger insight was he said if we had sold it would have been GG
So YEAH, I WANT YALL FUCKERS TO SELL WHEN WE SEE ABSURD SQUEEZE NUMBERS.
selling makes a cell when you see outlier numbers like get to hogging that sell button lmao.
\> Firms vs. ETFs being cannibalized: Agreed that tracking which ETFs are being used is more operationally useful for predicting price action than naming which APs are doing it. The reason I name the firms is different, it's for the regulatory attribution chain (10b-5 element mapping, Paper III). For trading purposes, you're right: XRT shares outstanding is the signal. For enforcement purposes, the AP identity matters.
if you find the guilty AP's and can monitor their balance sheet for Guilty RECAP days ahead of time, im damn interested. But i monitor swaps for bullish rallies on top of RECAP days for this instead. When i see RECAPS as the cause for a rally, i sell into it. This fucks them over. 'Im doing my part'.
\> GMEU / single-stock ETF FTDs: This is a gap in my current analysis and I appreciate you flagging it. Single-stock ETFs add another layer to the delivery obligation chain that I haven't weighted yet. I'll look at the October 2025 GMEU FTD spike you're referencing.
I double-count GMEU FTDs. :3 IGME/GMEY seem to be mostly bullshit when they get FTD's, and warrant FTDs only seem to matter when the gme1 chain is due, but i like to watch GMEU FTDs very much.

\>FTRs and the cascading delivery effect on rallies: This is covered in [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1raqvja/options_consequences_the_paper_trail_2/), Citadel Securities' FTR line item grew from $61M to $108M (+77%) on the X-17A-5. Your framing of retail selling during rallies as a *trigger* for forcing FTR resolution is sharper than how I wrote it. When the beneficial owner sells, the broker can no longer sit on the IOU — they need the actual share to deliver to the buyer. That's a mechanism worth expanding.
i mean yeah, the warehouse doesn't give a shit. when does the buck stop? when you close the trade out from under their ass.
\> Inversion / swap dates: Noted, and the humility about models being wrong is refreshing. Your spreadsheet is impressive, I'll DM you about cross-referencing the RECAPS dates against your ETF expansion data. If the signals reinforce, that's publishable.
real shit? i went from a portfolio returning 150% per year to blowing up half of it when i started attempting to time this in any way. I just trade stock and warrants now, maybe selling CC's against it when i cant bare to sell the shares.
Last words of \*warning\*. I'm a hacker. I can stand a little heat. I'm deleting everything if the eye of Sauron ascends upon me. I came this close to doing so when my youtube blew up the same day as 15M flooded the options chain and my entire position got fucked over. But i dont care if some options traders front run the shit out of me. And i dont care if i let half that portfolio get blown up. I scrambled this accounts history under the threat of being doxxed, and i somewhat regret tying gamestop to my personal life to that extent, as my ability to reach out and mentor has been impacted by it somewhat.
So whose Sauron here?

I care when i get on the NSCC's naughty list. Whatever you do: Don't get noticed by that sleeping giant. It doesn't matter if youre right or wrong. This is the way a trader goes to jail.
All the NSCC does is borrow at the highest level, and update an excell sheet. The days they update that sheet? this whole charade is closed out even the slightest bit. Everyone must fess up to crimes and post margin. The NSCC does not care what crimes you commit. You must only post margin. But when the NSCC moves on its own?
Banks collapse. People go to jail. The FED listens. I dont care if im targetted on the internet by trolls: So long as they don't notice whats going on under their nose and try to blame me for it being obvious. If enough people sell while a broker is in need, they can get blown up during a RegCode 68 event where they are formally requesting a margin deferral. But im never gonna tell anyone how to blow up the broker in one of those events, cause the NSCC is real. Thats where i draw my line in the sand and sell out on you.
Until then? I'm here.

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