TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

Forward PE ratios on some of the most profitable and important tech companies in the world range from 5-7 for Samsung/SKKY/MU, to high teens low 20's for NVDA, GOOG, and TSM. The market has all but priced in the worst case scenario/peak earnings and are fully discounting future earnings as if these companies are doomed to inevitability slow from within the next 12 months, yet every one of them is telling us their demand vastly exceeds supply, baclogs booming (especially at hyperscaler cloud business aka where the largest demand for chips are) and likely will continue for multiple years. The markets fear around the AI supply chain trade has seemingly hit a fever pitch at the same time that earnings are unquestionably surging. NVDA is a better value than WMT and has been trading at a lower pe nearly all year and significantly lower forward PE ratio. Markets are certainly irrational right now

Memory has always been cyclical. The market has kinda historically hated semiconductors. Looks at the names and indexes before the '23 run ups. They used to be considered the choppiest names to trade. TSM has probably caused many people to become schizophrenics. AMD was the advanced money destroyer for a reason. I think they are just reverting back.

TSM is the play.

ASML is already out of the US. So is TSM.

I bought IREN at around $48 about a year ago...sold about a month ago at almost the same price. It's a year wasted. I have lost confidence in the management and in neoclouds in general. I also don't think bitcoin will do much in the next year. Moved all my money into TSM instead.

Should have sold my TSM calls when I was up 50% in two days guh

Hi all, these are the stocks/ETFs I invested in. I know the market is very bad overall for AI and semi stocks. If I intend to hold for longer term, am I ok? **Still in profit: (Profits reduced a lot)** AAPL, AMD, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, CRWD, GOOGL, MSFT, MSTR, MU, NBIS, PANW, SCHB, SCHG, SPCX, TSLA, TSM, UNH, VXUS **Manageable loss:** SNDK (7% down) **Worst situation:** CRWV (38% down) Overall, CRWV is the only stock I'm worried about. I missed a lot of profits I gained on NBIS by not selling but I'm still in some profits, so it's fine. Should I just continue holding? I'm afraid to avg down on CRWV. Please suggest.

So cool that profitable companies like Duolingo or Moderna can finally soar 25%/13% intraday and poor fuckers with no cash like TSM and AMD are going negative

TSM keeps dropping though what do I doooo 😓😓😓😓

They don’t need to make a fab though. NVDA just designs the chips, TSM handles the fab

My top 2 holdings are down (NVDA TSM) but my next 4 are up big (MSFT AAPL GOOG AMZN) so I’m in the green. But most of my portfolio is VT and crushing. I might give up on individual stocks, at age 50 I probably don’t need the stress.

This is gonna sound like an old guy, but this is why I decided to build my port like building a house. I am also big into the AI trade, but I decided to go w/ more index ETF's. I believe the AI trade isn't dead; but we are going to have sector rotations from time to time that are gonna feel like you got kicked in the balls. I have 75% of my port b/w $VT which I consider my foundation and $VXUS which is my support. I have 15% in the Pacific Asian semi heavy ETFs such as $EWJ, $VPL, and $EWY. I consider that 15% as building my garage. Than I have another 10% in speculative stocks. I consider that 10% as my deck. You need to build your portfolio's foundation and support first. And I am gambling heavily here with a very heavy World ex US port since I believe international stocks will outperform US stocks during this AI data center buildout due to the SK hynix, TSM, Samsung, ASML, etc of the world being heavily weighted in $VXUS and $VT compared to US indices such as $VTI or $VOO. And my port hasn't been fun to look at for the last 2 months. I don't know what you own; but it sounds like you are also an AI riverboat gambler so I'd look at putting new money into building a position in $VT. One huge mistake that I have made in the past is feeling like I had to continue to BTD in the same stocks to make sure I bought the bottom. The problem is we have no idea where the bottom is. It's better to put new money towards a foundation like $VT, $VTI, or $VXUS. If you are right all those stock positions you already own will eventually rebound anyway. But you don't want to get wiped out during these brutal sector rotations by continuing to BTD in the same stocks. It's possible they all rebound tomorrow. But it's also possible they all don't hit their bottoms until a year from now. I would bet on the rebound being sooner rather than later, but I can't guarantee that. Sorry for my long reply.

Lower risk, highly established semis and AI. NVDA, TSM, MU maybe, EWY maybe, a LITTLE Google, MAYBE a little AMD,a LITTLE Microsoft, MAYBE a little AVGO...maybe a LITTLE Meta. Then Anthropic at SOME point when the stock price settles. HIGH RISK MAYBES....TXN, GFS, LCSS, TSEM. Don't go too heavy on companies with high PE's....if you do....take profits and run as soon as you can. Going to be a bumpy ride. ONLY go for companies generating big cash.....those who don't will be in the crosshairs of rising debt and being purchased after lots of bleeding out. Still a lot of high rate risk, more fighting for capital and big risks of getting shareholders to dump if you try to issue equity. Meta learned the hard way, and they are relatively low risk. The democrats, nor any government will stop AI from expanding. This is a big, empty scare. There will be deals to protect consumer power pricies, water conservation measures and some AI bro's will get dragged to Washington to make sure they are "safe". Then government will take a photo op and decalre it a victory for the people and back to businss as usual. Maybe a new AI watchdog organization that will not have the resources or know-how to keep an eye on AI. Buy the dip.

gawddamn, TSM below 400 and NVDA about to dump under 200 is wild. RIP

Why not MU or TSM?

Got TSM & NVDA calls today near their lows... Heres hoping it doesn't go lower tmrw lol

So now we wake up and NVDA + TSM giga pump on the swing

Is TSM actually bankrupt this time?? Lmao wowie glad I sold my 420c for 15% profit when it hit $410 this morning. Gawdang.

Don't touch SOXL today. TSM is literally sitting on the 200 MA. NVDA just a few cents under. AMD will be on crack cocaine because of the earnings (still over the 200 MA). AVGO, QCOM, INTC and a few others are way under the 200 MA. Do leveraged DOW or Russell if it's your thing.

GOOGL LRCX ANET AVGO TSM NVDA and of course VGT & SPMO

I keep buying and selling TSM 430s, I'll check 420s

I'm holding TSM 420s .... Dated at the end of Nov. Reeee

Avoid shitcos that have a high probability of going to 0. Examples are CRWV, OKLO, IREN, etc. Buy stocks with strong cash generation, ideally the cash generation capability shouldn't be affected by the bankruptcy of shitcos (Among AI stocks TSM is somewhat safe from AI going bust because the consumer chip demand would simply replace data center chip demand). I like gambling, but it has to be in my favor. Buying stocks that I know would not work in the long term is a bad deal.

Been up and down 2.5% on TSM while I’ve been asleep. Im like Mr bean when he passed out on a roller coaster

TSM