TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

China will not have an impact, Nvidia doesn't have the capacity to even make H200's for China and were smart to leave them out of their long term plans. If they want to make H200's they have to stop making Blackwell and Vera Rubin's. Even with the Arizona TSM fab on par with their Taiwan fab making Blackwells.........thyer are still just using that to make more Blackwells.

It depends on what AI stocks you're talking about.
Chip makers or those involved in the chip manufacturing process - NVDA/TSM/INTC/AMD? Probably between greed and delusion.
Memory makers? I'd say between delusion/new paradigm, at least in the short term
Photonics (AXTI/LITE)? Delusion/new paradigm
Power providers? Between enthusiasm and greed

Why is TSM acting like 🥭 will sell Taiwan to China

TSM has been dogshit all week

You sound both clueless and obnoxious.
What about MSFT's fundamentals do you not like?
Now... I'm all in on NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, AMZN, GOOGL, META but I just bought MSFT at 350 and... I have no doubt it'll double by '28. It's grew AZUR 40%...

You're just latching on to what someone else just did and looking at a couple of days of returns. That's... LOL... comically short sighted.

TSM

These novices have been waiting 8 months for a 10% move in this extended stock LOL. In the meantime TSM, WDC, SNDK, AMD… even TEVA!!! Up multiple baggers. And before anyone accuses me of being a jealous hater, it is a great company but I am not buying it here. Too little risk/reward for the capital. Here’s my cost basis… 29 cents.
https://preview.redd.it/fxgru0aucu0h1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f08155b4d135a1c85f354b5667e811e12b9bb180

QCOM uses TSM, they don't like the idiot promising decreased armed sales to Taiwan I think. Everything TSM adjacent ate shit.

Sold TSM bought MY just in the dip

MU,RKLB,NFLX, TSM, GOOGL

VOO is S&P500 US top 500 large caps
VTI is US total market
They are both broad market but VOO covers 500 stocks while VTI covers 3,500 stocks.
I like the USA focus. VOO is a great core etf. It adds a lot of utility to keep your portfolio robust.
SMH is a very impressive high volatility etf which is good if you have the iron stomach for it. It's a great for international stocks like TSM.
ARKX/UFO are a very large chunk and I'm not seeing their future performance really justify their large position in your portfolio. You would be better off just buying a few shares of rocketlab.
It would be nice to see some of the SMH fund going to QQQM or SPMO so you have layers to your AI sector exposure. Maybe even FLKR for south korea's samsung and sk hynix would be a nice compliment.
It would be nice to see some of the ARKX/UFO go to AVUV because there are a lot of great small US companies you don't carry.
Overall I like how ambitious your portfolio is. I don't have the stomach for such large plays of SMH, ARKX, and UFO but it's great to see you are branching out your portfolio to pickup some stocks not held in VOO.

It's funny you brought this up today of all days. I'm very active on a site called GJopen dot com (Good Judgement Open). It predates prediction market sites and you don't bet money you just assign confidence points to obscure questions as far in advance as you can without making any adjustments to get your Brier Score (mine is 0.06 over 800 predictions). Because of that I have very very unorthodox methods and I always - always - second guess myself despite having a very good Brier Score.
So when it came to my stock picks? Holy crap, whenever anything pulled back 5-8% in a day I panicked and liquidated everything to wait it out - only to see it rebound +10-15 within two weeks.
At the moment I'm tech heavy. So what I did this time around to quell my fears was made a loss table. I took the closing price of all my positions for the last three years (when I took back control from our advisors) and calculated the gain/loss for each day, and each week for a condensed view. I put them all in a table and used conditional formatting to make all losses red. When you do that it honestly looks like a crime scene. I then made a table at the top that shows the 1st, 2nd and 3rd worst losses, the average daily/weekly gain, and the top three biggest gaining days.
The results are eye popping. One particular stock dropped -35% in two trading sessions (based off of the opening prices). I would have dumped that stock in a heart beat... But guess which one it was... SNDK. April 3rd and 4th, 2025, just weeks after it's debut. We all know how that stock is doing.
But others in tech sector have similar MIN/MAX deltas between daily opening prices too.
\-MU was -18% on 12/20/24
\-KLAC -13% twice on 8/5/24 and 10/17/24
\-AMD -15% on 2/5/26
The list goes on for -13% or more for INTC, TSM, AMAT, AVGO...
But now that I can go back in time and watch how all of these continued to grow, I'm better prepared and calmer when these stocks have a bad day or week.

TSM,AMAT, SOUN, RKLB, NVIDIA

>Don’t put more than 5% in any one stock
It's taken me years to finally beat that in to my own head. At one point 50% in ETFs and the other 50% in 2 or 3 stocks. I got lucky since they were TSM and AMD, but I've been slowly harvesting the gains and whittling them down. I have a fetish for round numbers so I usually buy 100 shares (to a max of $70,000) now. I do that solely for quicker calculations in my head and not needing to remember random numbers.

DRAM, EOSE, DVLT, TSM and BX

INTC, AMD, MRVL, TSEM, GFS, TSM 😉

Two things. US signalled it doesn’t like Iran’s position on Hormuz, and is saber rattlijg they are going to end ceasefire and actively bomb again. Korea which is not at all energy independent and gets much if its fuel shipped via Hormuz gets shocked by energy shocks or even hints of energy shocks.
Second, US, the idiot, and his party even backing him up on this, are signalling they want to cave to China demand thry stop sending Taiwan weapons. Since TSM fabs half of the worlds chips and all rhe companies like nvda and qcom etc outsource this fab, lots of stocks reacted negatively intraday over the uncertainty towards this vital industry. Fab is largely done in S korean and by TSM so…these stonks don’t like the stupid geopolitics.
The straight of Hormuz situation is the biggest threat to the DRAM position as half its position is S Korea. Fuel reserves are slipping towards critical levels and if not straightened by late Summer may go into “collapse” levels of inventory. This kills DRAM no matter how many years of orders they have.

I like higher returns and have been in VUG, VGT and MU, TSM, AVGO, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Visa. But also have QQQI, SPYI and 6 different dividend ETFs.

This is my biggest concern as a holder of TSM/ASML/SK, but I think we have at least 1.5-2 years before we see those companies no longer being able to get funding/cap ex getting cut as long as the models keep progressing and we see mild to moderate progress for AI ROI.
Hypersclaers are trying to sign 5 year deals for memory with SK Hynix right now, that's not a sign of lack of confidence and wilingness to fund Open AI/Anthropic.

The new MAG7 is MU, AMD, NVDA, AVGO, SNDK, TSM