TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

I would recommend caution here. TSM reported really early this Q, and so much of the positive read through could be priced in. So while it may be a good report, there’s probably less upside. Just my 2c. 

I own INTC for one reason: China. Okay, two reasons: China, Taiwan. Three reasons? China, Taiwan, TSM.
I see the stock as a hedge against China moving on Taiwan in the next few years. Imagine it’s 2027 and the PLA invasion force is attacking the Taiwan beaches . . . think how much INTC will go up. Now, move that to 2032 and INTC might not go up, since TSM will have built enough fab capacity in the US. The US government seems to see INTC similarly.
In the meantime, 4Q25 looks about like what I’d expect. INTC is ramping 18A, still early and the yield is poor, hurting margins and capacity, so despite strong demand for both PCs and x86 servers, 4Q only beat by a little and 1Q was guided weaker. Foundry is losing lots of money, since it is only building production wafers for INTC itself the net is around zero. It is a long slow turnaround, INTC is in inning 5 maybe.
I figure I win if they get to the 9th inning, or if China moves on Taiwan. I can’t say which I think is more likely, but I think the combined probability of either one is (subjectively) 65%+.

Sort of, they still need wafers currently form TSMC, they can use Intel instead of TSM and boom reshoring works.

Is TSM a mining company?
Yeah I’m looking at precious metals rising as a possibly indicator of a possible incoming recession. So I’m on standby, ready to start shorting this year or next. I also bought some LMT when russia invaded Ukraine. And will hold that depending on technicals and geopolitics of course.
As far as day trades go, semiconductors is what my eyes would be on for that. SOXS and SOXL.

Sure, but only TSM and Samsung are able to produce 4nm processes and only in Taiwan and South Korea as I understand it.
I suspect everyone else is probably somewhere between 8 and 40nm processes so they’re going to need to produce more.
Also, I don’t think any of these guys are getting into memory production which appears is going to be a bottle neck for the next decade or so.

Another week of running ***Short Put Verticals*** aka ***Bull Put Credit Spreads***.
Improved over the previous week by $ 1000 over last week despite the turbulence!
Here is my simple trading plan.
I am now entering these trades ***30-45 DTE*** and choosing a ***.25 to .35 delta short put and 1 to 2 strikes lower for the long put.***
I set a stop/loss order for ***150% of the premium received*** and a ***BTC order for 30% of premium received.***
I currently have 49 open spreads and have closed 173 trades for the month.
Here are results for the individual tickers month to date.
|Ticker|Profit +/-|
|:-|:-|
||
|AMZN|$4,036|
|ASTS|$3,928|
|CRCL|$2,032|
|MU|$1,793|
|FIX|$1,134|
|GOOGL|$1,058|
|OKLO|$1,034|
|COST|$806|
|HUT|$688|
|RKLB|$430|
|JPM|$204|
|LMT|$165|
|SPX|$140|
|UNH|$120|
|INTC|$119|
|MP|$61|
|SLV|$60|
|MSOS|$15|
|ETN|$14|
|SMCI|$10|
|NFLX|($55)|
|TSM|($60)|
|HOOD|($560)|
|NBIS|($666)|
|RDDT|($2,923)|
|TOTALS|$13,581|

TSM

Strongly disagree with limited ai upside if you think that you don't have a strong concept of how datacenters work. I have positions in amd so I agree there but with 50% 3 year cagr baseline for the industry as stated by TSM there is plenty of room for Intel to eat in that space even if they aren't the lead. They themselves state as much as well just that they can't execute.

AI selloff? NVDA TSM AMD MU look elevated to me, compared to SAAS.

TSM, you've been going sideways for 5 hours. i'm about to take my ball (0DTEs) and go home

TSM uuuu

Whats your point, nvidia so capacity constrained it wont even be making geforce cards for 6 months. TSM cant meet demand, intel cant meet demand, no one can meet demand. This is as dumb as it gets, we will see massive capex spending not profitability increases.

Agreed. Foundry problems? Nothing that a gunpoint deal with TSM / ASML can't fix 😉 

TSM AMD green cute

$NVDA: THE UNDISPUTED ARCHITECT OF CIVILIZATION 🏛️ expansion Stop thinking of $NVDA as a chip maker. They are the Utility Provider for the 21st century. You can't run a modern nation without them. The Ecosystem of Giants: Defense: Powering Lockheed Martin simulation systems. 🛡️Energy: Shell & BP optimizing global resources. 🛢️Logistics: Every move at Amazon & Walmart is calculated by Nvidia. 📦Space: Partnering with NASA for Mars simulations. 🚀 What’s in the Pipeline:The rumors of a massive Apple (AAPL) partnership for 2026 robotics are growing. Plus, Saudi Arabia’s NEOM is being built on Nvidia's Digital Twin architecture. The Verdict:From the food you eat (John Deere) to the car you drive (Mercedes) and the medicine you take (BioNeMo)—Nvidia is everywhere. Investing in NVDA is investing in human progress itself. 🌎📈 \(NVDA\)TSM #Defense #Energy #NASA #Apple #Bullish #Rubin 

There is also enormous scope for those who have experienced a huge speculative bubble over the last 36 months to undergo a severe correction!
PLTR HOOD TSLA INTC GOOGL etc. MU LRCX BABA AMD ASML AMAT CAT HSBC GE RTX GS TSM ... JNJ LLY ...

apparently Intel has been transported to an alternate reality. Down 12%, yet zero impact on any related companies, SOXX essentially unchanged. Wild. If it was up 12%, SOXX would be rocketing higher like we saw with TSM's ER

I would recommend caution here. TSM reported really early this Q, and so much of the positive read through could be priced in. So while it may be a good report, there’s probably less upside. Just my 2c. 

I own INTC for one reason: China. Okay, two reasons: China, Taiwan. Three reasons? China, Taiwan, TSM.
I see the stock as a hedge against China moving on Taiwan in the next few years. Imagine it’s 2027 and the PLA invasion force is attacking the Taiwan beaches . . . think how much INTC will go up. Now, move that to 2032 and INTC might not go up, since TSM will have built enough fab capacity in the US. The US government seems to see INTC similarly.
In the meantime, 4Q25 looks about like what I’d expect. INTC is ramping 18A, still early and the yield is poor, hurting margins and capacity, so despite strong demand for both PCs and x86 servers, 4Q only beat by a little and 1Q was guided weaker. Foundry is losing lots of money, since it is only building production wafers for INTC itself the net is around zero. It is a long slow turnaround, INTC is in inning 5 maybe.
I figure I win if they get to the 9th inning, or if China moves on Taiwan. I can’t say which I think is more likely, but I think the combined probability of either one is (subjectively) 65%+.

Sort of, they still need wafers currently form TSMC, they can use Intel instead of TSM and boom reshoring works.