TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

TSM is strong , way better than MU and scandisk
TSM is the bedrock of the global semiconductor industry. it is a contract manufacturer that builds the physical chips designed by other companies, like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD.

These can’t be the reasons….IBM, ASML, and now TSM have all confirmed that the demand is still strong and companies are moving $$ for AI build outs. Nothing fundamentally has changed. The strait was open and closed and reopened and closed and war was on again off again too during the tail end of this run. Market caps got out of control, and a correction was needed.
My hopium has been hinged on Google and Microsoft (hopefully) confirming their capex is maintained or increased for build outs. But after 3 reports, from 3 different companies, all confirming the game is still on….and the bleeding continues….I’m not so sure these next rounds of earnings reports are gonna do much of anything if they’re positive. And it’s gonna be an absolute bloodbath if they do talk about trimming capex.
Still great companies. AI boom still on. May not mean higher stock prices in the near term….

19 hours ago Kimi K3 was released and that news seems to be having an impact on the 5% slide in semiconductor companies. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, are all down 5% and TSM down 2.3%. TSM being down is important because they just had a stellar earnings report.
Discussions on forums about Kimi K3 indicate that the model is the second best out there based on testing. One user reported K3 catching a bug that Fable did not. What is significant about the news is that given export restrictions on China for GPUs, this Chinese lab has produced a model that will be open source. The gap between the latest versions of the major labs in America and China may be down months maybe even weeks. This model was developed with access to older generations of GPUs. Some in market are reading it as cliff of growth appearing. That there might not that much be left for these industries to grow.
Kimi K3: https://platform.kimi.ai/docs/guide/kimi-k3-quickstart

From 2000 dotcom time to 2002 bottom, Nasdaq lost 80%. $INTC $QCOM $AMZN $CSCO few survive, over 90% disappear
Internet still here, AOL, Netscape not
If AI bubble burst, after Trillions leverage push, $NVDA $MU $AVGO $TSM $SNDK $WDC & even $MSFT $META $GOOG $AMZN what’s next?

Looks pretty solid on [https://www.sentimentick.com/app/ticker/TSM](https://www.sentimentick.com/app/ticker/TSM) .
I would wait for a bit momentum on short term buyers.

if the total stock market does 10% CAGR over say 30 years, and AVUV charges .25, it needs a 10.27% CAGR to have the same ending balance ( you can always napkin math estimate this just adding a funds ER to the CAGR will get you close enough ie a .50ER needing 10.50%). historically , SCV has returned 13.6% long term. looking at asset class quilt charts you can see SCV and LB often have a ying yang relationship, an excellent diversifier. I don't expect the SVC premium to be as high in the future , but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a good .50% greater than a TSM.

For that matter, why is TSM down? Their balance sheet is solid AF

Thanks man... ASML seems very overvalued at this point but they got the EUV machines. TSM seems ok.

40 percent of this etf is 5 stocks which i would buy on dips
with half of that being TSM and ASML the 2 best positioned semis for future growth

Walnut Markets actually has TSM in an interesting spot. The tape is bearish short term, but fundamentals, insider activity, congressional buying, and institutional accumulation are all still bullish. Sometimes price lags the underlying data—I'll be watching to see if the technicals catch up.
[https://walnutmarkets.com/ticker/TSM](https://walnutmarkets.com/ticker/TSM)

My worry is the market isn’t reacting to good earnings like they were and any miss by the slightest margin from estimates is an immediate sell (Samsung, TSM) I think Micron last earnings report may have been the craziest thing I’ve ever seen on any earnings report ever and went negative delta immediately, markets top on good news and bottom on bad imo. I’ll remove my hedge around 450-500, am guessing we bottom around September.

It's been falling since June 30th. TSM is only down 2.5% anyway

Just had this "debate" with Gemini Deep Thinking re: TSM:
**Yo, so TSM has been killing my portfolio. Is it worth keeping? It's down about 12% since I bought despite the amazing earnings and revenue data. Simple don't want to lose more than I already have**
It is incredibly frustrating to watch a company absolutely smash its earnings, raise future growth guidance, and then see the stock slide anyway. You are experiencing the classic, head-scratching Wall Street "sell the news" reaction.
To put things in perspective, TSM isn't just another tech stock—it is the absolute backbone of global technology. It holds an undisputed monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing:
Global Semiconductor Foundry Market Share. Source: Statista
As you can see, TSMC controls over 60% of the entire global foundry market. Every major AI or hardware designer—including Nvidia, Apple, and AMD—is entirely dependent on TSM to physically manufacture their cutting-edge chips. From a purely structural and fundamental standpoint, their business is stronger than ever.
# So, Why is TSM Dropping Right Now?
Despite TSM's record-breaking Q2 2026 earnings (where net profit grew an insane 77.4% year-over-year), three major things are spooking short-term investors:
* **The CapEx Shock:** TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure (spending) budget to **$60B to $64B** (up from the previous $52B to $56B range). While this signals massive future demand, the market hates seeing such a sharp increase in immediate, high-cost cash outflows.
* **Overseas Margin Dilution:** Building advanced factories in Arizona, Japan, and Germany is highly expensive. CFO Wendell Huang warned that ramping up these overseas factories will **dilute gross margins by 2% to 4%** over the next few years. Ramping up factories outside Taiwan is a costly logistical hurdle.
* **Broad Sector Rotation:** Tech and semiconductor stocks have had an absolute blockbuster run. After softer inflation prints and strong banking earnings, institutional investors are locking in profits on big winners and rotating cash into lagging sectors like financials, healthcare, and small caps.

I am not sure why you think this is abnormal, heard about TSM it has been trading at 30% premium for years without any convergence. Asian countries make arbitrage trade impossible and you will not make any money expecting a prices to converge since it’s a one way street.

I made a mistake. I never owned TMC. I meant to write TSM. This losing money has me losing my mind too.

The average stock in the SOXX was trading at over 20x TTM revenue. Total bubble territory. But but but these companies and AI aren’t going anywhere. That’s a weak argument for pricing stocks. Supposedly good earnings and outlooks did not matter for 2 of the major players in TSM and ASML. That means the whole sector is getting repriced. If the Fed raises rates later in the year the 20% correction will turn into a wipe out.

tf you talking about? So long as hyperscalers are spending big money on it, TSM will be fine. And so far, none of them have blinked yet, they're still throwing insane amounts of money into the AI fire.

TSM? Please save me

TSM is selling at their historical higher PE. and Netflix is selling at historical lower PE. so your comparison makes no sense

People like to try to rationalize but the market moves on emotions. Rn everything related to ai spending is taking a break. TSM did not deserve to go down but that’s how it goes.