TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

$TSM please, you don’t have to follow $MU

This is a follow-up to my post on journaling and I wanted to provide you with a real example. The first part provides the macro context. The second part breaks down the price action. You don't have to agree with my forecast, use it as a guideline for what you will do. PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY - After the close yesterday SPCX released earnings. The growth was spectacular across all business segments, but their AI revenues stole the show. Revenues surged 9X from $816 million last year to $7.56 billion this quarter. All of the investments they've made in the Colossus data centers will put them on a pace to generate $500 billion to $1 trillion in recurring revenue by the end of 2027.  In the press conference Musk said that the payback on AI is six months to a year. SPCX is not leasing out compute on a long-term basis, it is charging based on the "spot" price. That's because it keeps going up. He said that SPCX has looked into leasing compute for themselves and there is no supply. Elon believes that the demand will grow exponentially because the more AI is used, the more applications companies find for it. When asked about financing these projects he said that they have excellent lines of credit and that with such a short payback period these are short-term loans (they do have long-term space projects that are capital intensive).  This news has AI stocks rallying overnight and I believe they will establish support at these levels. Mega cap tech companies will reaffirm their capex in AI when they start releasing earnings next week. TSLA will report after the close today.  The big market drop from last Friday had no follow through selling. An SPY drop to the 100-day MA looks less likely and given the news, I doubt we see a capitulation low in SMH. This is the last week of seasonal weakness and now the market will shift to a period of seasonal strength.  My conclusions are not just based on SPCX earnings. TSM posted incredible results last week and cited an increase (not a decrease) in chip demand. As I've been saying, I believe the drop was caused by weak hands buying these stocks on margin and they were shaken out. Sellers were not able to push stocks lower this week and the selling climax I was hoping for failed to materialize.  Swing traders, this is a good place to sell some OTM put premium and to buy some of these stocks. Don't lunge, take starter positions and add on strength. Make sure you pick stocks that are not reporting in the next week. Earnings season is going to ramp up and we will hear from AMZN, GOOG, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MSFT, META, SNDK, STX, TSLA and WDC over the next 10 trading days. We've waited patiently... it's time. Day traders should look for a rotation back into tech. QQQ is above the 100-day MA this morning and that level needs to hold. SPY is above the 50-day MA. We are likely to see a brief bid check on the open. That will give you time to observe chip stocks that are gapping up. They need to show RS and hold the gains. If they do, start scaling in and add on a new high for the day. Global markets were up so there is a slight tailwind this morning. Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is the open from last Friday ($773.25). This analysis is to general to be actionable. You have to breakdown it down and conduct scenario analysis based on price action. The market drives everything so we start there. SPY Gap and Go - This is our least favorable scenario because it forces us to take action right away. We don't have time to find and confirm stocks with relative strength and the move higher would require us to chase. We don't want to do that because of the risk of a gap reversal presents a lot of downside risk. A Gap and Go would feature stacked green candles right from the open and it would challenge the high from Friday. By the time the move is confirmed, much of the upside is exhausted creating more risk. The best approach is to wait for a dip and buy if the price action has been strong to that point. SPY Bid Check - Mixed overlapping candles indicate that buyers are engaged. The 50-day MA is tested and the market flies off of support. That first move would give us time to find stocks with relative strength and we could monitor them during the market pullback. We want this move to be brief and shallow preserving most of the gap. When support forms, we start buying AI stocks with RS. SPY Down Trading Channel - The market has a downward sloping trading channel with mixed overlapping candles. Sellers are marginally in control and more than half of the gap is filled. The 50-day MA is breached, but that move was stubborn. This is a fairly low odds environment and we need to focus on stocks that have heavy volume and that are moving on their own. Favor shorts, but you can trade either side if the stock's price action is strong. Keep your size small. Gap Reversal - The market has stacked red candles on the open and more than half of the gap is filled. The 50-day MA is easily breached. This would prompt us to focus on shorts. Use the 50-day MA as a stop and look for the gap to be filled easily. This move does not likely to gain a lot of traction from this level because the market is not near a relative high on a D1 basis that would attract heavy profit taking. Then you would go through your list of stocks and conduct the same type of price action analysis. Always use D1 as your guide and then look at where shorter term support and resistance (prior day high/low) come into play. Relative strength, heavy volume and price action are your guide. Write down what you want to see and once you enter the trade, what you don't want to see. Base on the above scenarios you determine what you feel are the odds of each one playing out. Today, I would favor a brief bid check. That would give me time to evaluate AI stocks for RS and a bounce off of the 50-day MA would serve as confirmation. I wrote this on the fly. I hope it helps you plan your day and journal in the future.

i don't know about SPCX but look at TSM lmao

I’m just offering that patience is an excellent strategy. If they’re in the red on TSM, they won’t be for long. If they hold.

He threw 5b into INTC because the mad king told him to bend the knee. Of course it acts as an insurance policy, but without a certain individual he wouldn’t have put 5b into Intel. Jensen is balls deep in TSM otherwise, he’d probably put his entire company’s fortune into TSM if he’s allowed to. Everything else you said I mostly agree with.

The part you flagged, forgetting what would make you wrong, is the real problem, and it's fixable without new software: \- Earnings calendar for just your tickers: most brokers and Yahoo/Google Finance let you get earnings-date alerts on a watchlist. For US companies, EDGAR lets you get email alerts on new filings, so you'd have seen the Aecom 8-K the day it dropped. \- A one-page "thesis sheet" per holding: why you own it, 2–3 metrics that matter (your TSM overseas gross margin number is a perfect example), and the specific level or event that would make you sell. Date it. \- A pre-earnings ritual: the day before a report, re-read the sheet and write what you expect. Afterwards, compare. That stops you deciding based on whatever mood you're in when you finally notice. \- Weekly sweep: 13 positions × 1 minute: any filing, guidance change, or move above your threshold? If not, close the tab. With 13 names it's very manageable once the thesis lives next to the alert instead of "somewhere".

Yes. China if did that (and a full invasion is a very remote outcome) TSM would be the least of our concerns. It would affect the world in many different ways, none of them good.

wafers production is limited by manufacture capability. TSM is the only one that can produce it so even with production going up in the future, the price will likely stay elevated because there is no other alternative offerings.

What do you think it’s fair value for TSM? They project 57% YoY next quarter.

Geopolitical risk is real. But TSM is cheaper than GE by a wide margin, so I think it is worth taking a look at it. TSM biggest customer is still Apple.

TSM 400k

TSM has been holding strong (mostly; volatility within a range) and its creeping upward. Good long term hold but ive been trying to dump when dips start and rebuy it on its way back up but that has not worked well.

Today I did few trades as I'm slowing down or trying to as many of you know especially if your successful it's addicting. You just keep seeing money flowing in and while you know there's probably a spanking on the horizon you just keep going for it. Again I'm slowing down for two main reasons. The first truth be told I'm a bit nervous and will be right through the midterms. If things go as I expect it will get crazy come the end of January and inbetween now and then there could be a war in congress and he courts worse than now.This could extend will into next year and I'm just to old to deal with this kind of nonsense. My second reason is I need to concentrate on my health. I'm dealing with a health issue right now and I'm being sent to the university hospital in Miami to see if they can figure out what is wrong with me so I will at some point probably windup out of action for a bit we'll see what happens. As you can see below today I closed out a couple of CALLs I had so as to give me less to work with. I had had roughly 25 legs I was monitoring and that was getting to be a bit much so I closed some that were profitable and rolled some into new trades as well as closed out the long legs on a couple that I'm pretty confident won't drop to my short leg and if they do I will trade out of that. On another note it was pointed out to me I didn't have a follow me tab. After much looking I found something that might be it and clicked it. PLEASE LET KNOW IF IT WORKED/WORKS If it didn't work con somebody please tell me how to activate it. Thank you till next time https://preview.redd.it/66lwvff3wpwh1.png?width=1205&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fe5d530919a98aded02c9c670e79e2753de9661 |Date|Execution Time|u/L Symbol|Type|Qty|Description|Price|Est. Fee|Est. Comm|Est. Amount|Open/Close| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |10/20/2026|3:48:34 PM|MSFT|Sold To Close|2|MSFT Oct 23 '26 $520 Put|$1.55|$0.03|$0.30|$309.67|Close| |10/20/2026|3:48:10 PM|MSFT|Sold To Close|1|MSFT Oct 26 '26 $510 Put|$0.82|$0.01|$0.15|$81.84|Close| |10/20/2026|3:43:55 PM|MSFT|Sold Short|1|MSFT Oct 23 '26 $570 Call|$0.03|$0.01|$0.15|$2.84|Open| |10/20/2026|3:42:52 PM|GOOG|Sold To Close|2|GOOG Oct 23 '26 $322.50 Put|$0.71|$0.03|$0.30|$141.67|Close| |10/20/2026|9:50:38 AM|BAC|Sold Short|1|BAC Oct 30 '26 $53 Call|$0.17|$0.01|$0.15|$16.84|Open| |10/20/2026|9:50:27 AM|BAC|Sold Short|1|BAC Oct 30 '26 $53 Call|$0.17|$0.01|$0.15|$16.84|Open| |10/20/2026|9:49:05 AM|BAC|Sold Short|2|BAC Oct 23 '26 $52 Call|$0.14|$0.03|$0.30|$27.67|Open| |10/20/2026|9:36:20 AM|TSM|Bought To Cover|2|TSM Oct 23 '26 $415 Put|$4.30|$0.03|$0.30|($860.33)|Close| |10/20/2026|9:36:20 AM|TSM|Sold Short|2|TSM Oct 30 '26 $407.50 Put|$5.05|$0.05|$0.30|$1,009.65|Open| |10/20/2026|3:32:23 AM|BAC|Bought To Cover|4|BAC Oct 23 '26 $54 Put|$0.00|$0.00|$0.00|$0.00|Close| |||||||||||| ||||||||||$746.69||

All in on $TSM. Taiwan won’t be invaded, right guys? https://preview.redd.it/hd5wrbqxwpwh1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c372f7c139e7d6758ebfeb7500f3fb95de92e060

TSM, ASML, NVDA, SOXL, BE all popping ah. SPCX also on earnings.

$TSM giving me the tism

TSM looks like it is going to challenge HOD.

TSM, you are welcome in my bed anytime.

Still can’t get over the sp drop on TSM given the p/e, guide, and growth. Adding a lot. AMD is my darling but I’m understanding of the movement given the prints to date.

TSM looks nice. Already had earnings and hit nHOD while SPY is still flirting with VWAP.

Fly TSM, you beautiful bastard

I always hold the strong leaders like NVDA, TSM, MU and GOOG, MSFT, etc. They will come through sell off stronger. Always keep cash, bonds, which are my dry powder. When the time comes, I BTFD.

The stock haven't moved in 10 years. I used to have it when I was dividend investor, but I sold it in 2025 and put the money in GOOGL and TSM. But I would buy O if it's in 50$ range, in high interest rate era it's quite possible.

TSM is the only reason all this fuckin circus kept certain order and sanity. Current valuations are ballooned and overhyped, AI is not goin anywhere but is gonna take a big big hit, both openai and anthropic are strugglin, money is runnin dry, they cant turn a profit, and their whole bussiness model is under heavy pressure, two bad headlines in a row and the whole thing can tank a 50%

TSM is a beast, and the capex story checks out but yeah those drawdowns are no joke if the trade war flares up again