TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

I am sensitive. Thanks, I actually appreciate the perspective on the 4% position it’s making me re-think some of my positions, like a 2% position in TSM, is it really making a difference at $2,000 especially if it’s certainly not going to be a 10 or 100 bagger. I guess I think of the dramatic example of if you had invested in NVDA or TSLA at IPO even very small values would’ve made millionaires. I didn’t know that re Lynch, that sounds like an expensive and unnecessarily risky way to bookmark a company

In 2023 I put 50% of my net worth in Semis between SMH/TSM. In 2024 When NVDA exploded I noticed TSM had barely moved relative to NVDA and leveraged myself on LEAPs.

TSM at ~$ 390 average: the case, and the thing that would make me sell

TSM looking like a nice price to add

Reminder that the SPACs all popped Feb 2021, but SPY went up until Jan 2022 before popping itself, declining 34%. Big tech declined sooner and harder, with GOOG peaking Nov 2021 and falling \~42%.
Fine to gamble up and down, but I sold some investments yesterday (TSM, MSFT)

Yeah definitely. You just can’t chase the obvious stuff. I bought TSM in early 2023 for $80-90 a share at insane forward PEs and even a decent dividend. Micron last year at $80 - $100 was similar.

Intel is fine. You gotta understand the power of operating leverage. Intel is a company that brings in 55b a year in revenue and only 5b of profit. They don’t need revenue to increase 100% to double their earnings. Fixed cost make up a massive amount of the operating costs. It means something like a 20% revenue jump can increase your profits by 2x.
There’s also the fact that intel foundry that has massive potential independent of AI. If you look at TSM who basically is the entire market, they depend on the entire market growing for themselves to grow. They don’t have any competition to steal market share from. But Intel on the other hand can grow faster than the broader market because they can play the game of talking market share away from competitors which is a strategy independent of AI

TSM has not rallied

I like TSM as more durable in the area

Supply is AMDs biggest issue. Industry wide , no one can get any CPUs. TSM is basically dictating how much a company can make by wafer allocation

I went with SOXX because my portfolio has a good bit of VOO and VXUS. SMH is more heavily weighted with NVDA and TSM, which I already have exposure to.

TSM, Samsung electronics and UMC are an opportunity IMO. Fabs have now a lot of pricing power

TSM is also going down in AH 🤣

yes TSM calls

TSM calls?

Feels like a bullish week to me - no options buying but just bought ALAB, MU, TSM on margin (didn't learn from Leo)

$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSM $MU $SKHY
When BigTech cash flow negative .
Banks shutdown AI-debt load, after few blow up like “Situational Awareness story “. $45 Billion overnight
Then semi unwinds $2-3 Trillion
How long OpenAI & Anthropic keep cash burning $40 Billion a year ?

ABBV, AMGN, BAC, AVGO, CAT, CTAS, KO, COKE, COST, DE, FAST, HD, JPM, LOW, MA, MCD, PH, PEP, REXR, SCHD, SNA, TSM, TSCO, UNH, and VICI
VICI & REXR dont fall under the stated blue chip aristocrat category but I added them to boost overall dividend yield a bit as I believe in the two REITs long term being good

Alright, sold all three of my shares 😃
Now could my fucking 70 shares of TSM pump like this too!?!?

$SMH $MU $SKHY $SNdK $TSM $INtC $AMD $STX
How many Trillion AI-margin debt , when total margin debt 1.5 Trillion , last week wiped $45 Billion in a day, Situational Awareness.
Memory is cyclical, AI doesn’t mater
Ask any AI , why memory is cyclical?