TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Is $TSM a buy?

So....here is how I am going f myself this week.
I am selling off some lower risk ETFs like my value ETFs (a little VOE, FDVV, AVUV, DFIS) AND some bond ETFs (USHY and VWOB) and buying the dip.
Picking up more SOXX, more NVDA, more EWY, a small amount of TSM, and UMC.
If you don't feel like looking many of those up...selling safer stuff, picking up more semiconductors, chip fabricators, and memory.
Why... can't help but FEEL like this is an overreaction. I expect the Fed to NOT raise rates but to start laying the groundwork for rate hikes later this year. It takes strength to stand up to Trump and the markets, and I expect Warsh and the Fed to ease into the new tenure and embrace a little more sit-and-wait.
Next, tensions are HIGH around Iran. They should be. But at his core, Trump DOESN'T want to be at war and IS very capable of making a deal and praising new leadership. Especially before midterms. With Trump.....I try to expect the unexpected.
Next mid-terms. Markets tend to be choppy around now, and then we tend to see a relief rally in November. Going to be a LOT of lip service in the media about change, going to make the markets uneasy. Text book pre election dip.

More likely than not, Republicans come out of it all still in power, back to the pro-business status quo, and markets rejoice. More likely than not, Trump is chomping at the bit to pull in more Venezuela oil like yesterday and start horning off about that... may ease oil a little. Iran gets more serious about a deal post-midterm, as they don't have as much political sway then as they do today. The US starts thinking about a way out of the Middle East, as it is increasingly unpopular to be there. Reducing bond rates come into focus in the 2nd half of this admin. We see a LITTLE bond relief as midterms end. The narrative builds for increased taxes...but who knows if we'll see it. More talk about cutting spending.
All in all...trimming back small caps, buying more AI/semiconductor large caps, will continue to make small pivots up until elections.
100% ready to be wrong, I have made a good share of ill times calls this year.

TSM - not buying the bullshit
VIX - vol waking up
Gold , silver and copper - liquidity pressures are hitting
DXY - $ squeezies and stress risks
Cracks are beginning to deepen

GuMo Bretinas und Bres,
meine grundlegende AI-These ist nicht „AI wird geil“, sondern dass wir gerade einen kompletten neuen Computing-Stack aufbauen. Entscheidend ist für mich die AI CapEx Elasticity: Je stärker AI genutzt wird, desto mehr Compute, Networking, Cloud und Energie werden benötigt. Besonders interessant wird langfristig die Inference-Phase, wenn AI nicht mehr nur trainiert wird, sondern permanent als Agent im Hintergrund arbeitet.
Deshalb würde ich nicht auf den einen AI-Gewinner wetten, sondern die komplette Wertschöpfungskette abdecken. Ein entsprechend Portfolio könnte so aussehen:
25% $NVDA – Compute-Bottleneck. GPUs, CUDA und die dominante AI-Infrastruktur. Für mich der wichtigste Pure-Play auf steigende AI-Inference und Training-Demand.
15% $AVGO – Custom Silicon + Networking. Profitiert davon, dass Hyperscaler zunehmend eigene AI-ASICs bauen und gleichzeitig immer mehr High-Speed-Networking benötigen.
12% $GOOGL – AI-Plattform mit Gemini, DeepMind und eigener TPU-Infrastruktur. Zusätzlich starke Distribution über Search, Cloud und YouTube.
10% $MSFT – Monetarisierungsschicht. Azure + Copilot + Enterprise Distribution. Weniger Pure-Play, dafür extrem starke Position beim Übergang von AI zu produktiver Unternehmenssoftware.
10% $PLTR – Enterprise-AI-Layer. Die Wette darauf, dass Unternehmen AI nicht nur ausprobieren, sondern in ihre tatsächlichen Geschäftsprozesse integrieren.
8% $AMD – Challenger zu NVIDIA. Höheres Risiko, aber attraktive Asymmetrie, falls AMD dauerhaft Marktanteile bei AI Accelerators gewinnt.
7% $TSM – Der Fabrik-Bottleneck. Egal welcher Chip gewinnt: Ein großer Teil der fortschrittlichsten AI-Chips muss produziert werden. Advanced Nodes und Packaging machen TSMC extrem wichtig.
5% $META – AI als Plattform- und Advertising-Maschine. Llama, massive AI-Infrastruktur und potenziell enorme Produktivitätsgewinne im Ad-Geschäft.
5% $CRWV – High-Beta AI-Infrastructure Play. Direkte Wette auf steigende Nachfrage nach GPU-Cloud und Inference-Compute. Gleichzeitig deutlich höheres Duration-, Finanzierungs- und Bewertungsrisiko.
3% $SOUN – Pure AI Optionality. Voice AI und Agents mit extrem hoher Volatilität. Kleine Gewichtung, weil hier die Convexity interessant ist: hoher möglicher Upside, aber auch realistisches Totalverlustrisiko.
Die Logik dahinter ist relativ simpel:
AI Models → mehr Nutzung → mehr Inference → mehr Compute → mehr Chips → mehr Networking → mehr Cloud → mehr Enterprise-Automation.
Dieses Portfolio versucht deshalb nicht vorherzusagen, welches AI-Modell 2030 gewinnt. Es setzt darauf, dass unabhängig vom Gewinner der gesamte Compute- und Software-Stack wächst.
Die großen Positionen liefern die strukturelle Exposure, die kleinen Positionen die asymmetrische Lotterie.
ZL;NG: Nicht den AI-Gewinner suchen. Die Infrastruktur besitzen, die alle Gewinner brauchen.
$NVDA $AVGO $GOOGL $MSFT $PLTR $AMD $TSM $META $CRWV $SOUN

I don’t exactly understand your comment, but I think you’re recognizing the same idea that getting started setting up some machines like TSM would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, thus they don’t have competitors popping up.

imo if TSM breaks its 100day sma then shit is getting real. alot of other companies already broke or about to break

You can check out 4063 and 6324 on TSE on top of TSM

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc? What else is moving in conjunction with TSM? Nothing else?

That’s good advice. $AVGO looks like to be on track for around $30 eps by 2028. If they hit that it even get close you’ll see significant upside.
However $NVDA is also a good choice. $TSM is building on the states. So if your horizon is 3-5 years then all should work out well.

I'm long on TSMC as a "tollbooth" stock for semis because I don't have to pick winners and losers; TSMC grows regardless of which chip designers ultimately do best. I see "physical AI" is being hyped as a sort of post-LLM growth story by Jensen and others. "AI Embodiment" is a term I now hear a lot about. Could the tollbooth stock for robotics be... TSM and NVDA? I own both TSM and NVDA but small amounts as a small, diversified retail investor.

Is it worth while looking for robot parts manufacturers that could become bottlenecks if robotics experiences the explosive growth many are predicting? Or is there no standard platform emerging that most robotics companies would be likely to buy from. I don't currently own any robotics pure-play stocks; the only thing close I hold would be TSLA (just a handful of shares).

The MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, which SMH follows, announced its semi-annual update Friday. Next Monday tiny SWKS should be dropped from SMH while SK hynix (the SKHY ADR, not the Korean listing) will be added. Since SK hynix is about 100 times bigger than SWKS, this will lead to some reductions of the other positions.
NVDA has grown to 22.4% so it will be reduced in any case to conform with the max 20% weighting rules. The Index lists SKHY at 5%, so if that ends up right, it means VanEck has to add/swap in around $3.5 billion worth of SKHY. Maybe this partly contributed to NVDA's bad past week and SKHY's fairly good one.
SWKS is one of only two SMH stocks that have lost the past three years so no loss there. (ON is the other loser and now the smallest qualifying company in the ETF.) SKHY is listed tied with MU and AMD for fourth largest holding at 5%, with AVGO at 5.7% and TSM 9.3%.
Again, this is what the index did, but since SMH follows it, they should follow suit next week.
[https://www.marketvector.com/indexes/sector/mvis-us-listed-semiconductor-25](https://www.marketvector.com/indexes/sector/mvis-us-listed-semiconductor-25)
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I think it's a great company, and you'd probably make good money, but you take a significant single -stock risk to get there. The risk just seems unnecessary.
I would just ask yourself the question, why AVGO over all the other semis like NVDA, MU, SNDK, TSM? And why semis, over the hyperscalers, the platforms, the infrastructure, the energy, or a broader tech-ETF like VGT.
At least, I'd probably spread it around into something like AMZN, GOOGL which can succeed even if hyperscaling slows (where the semis get crushed).
You could continue the thesis and put some into private energy for the data centers (CEG is a great option).
Or something completely unrelated also with great returns like HCA (private healthcare in the US).

Higher debt & higher rate, always path to collapse, if look historical data.
Dotcom: Internet didn’t go away
2008-GFC: houses don’t burn
But financial products to hype with extremely high leverage collapse & catch to fundamentals
Same for AI-crash, with big leverage debt load.
$QQQ $SMH $SPY $XLK $XLF $NVDA $MU $AMD $TSM $META $MSFT $GOOG etc see AI-cooling next

I like that it has the same top US tech companies as the others plus the top international like TSM, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Sandisk