TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Yeah definitely. You just can’t chase the obvious stuff. I bought TSM in early 2023 for $80-90 a share at insane forward PEs and even a decent dividend. Micron last year at $80 - $100 was similar.

Intel is fine. You gotta understand the power of operating leverage. Intel is a company that brings in 55b a year in revenue and only 5b of profit. They don’t need revenue to increase 100% to double their earnings. Fixed cost make up a massive amount of the operating costs. It means something like a 20% revenue jump can increase your profits by 2x.
There’s also the fact that intel foundry that has massive potential independent of AI. If you look at TSM who basically is the entire market, they depend on the entire market growing for themselves to grow. They don’t have any competition to steal market share from. But Intel on the other hand can grow faster than the broader market because they can play the game of talking market share away from competitors which is a strategy independent of AI

TSM has not rallied

I like TSM as more durable in the area

Supply is AMDs biggest issue. Industry wide , no one can get any CPUs. TSM is basically dictating how much a company can make by wafer allocation

I went with SOXX because my portfolio has a good bit of VOO and VXUS. SMH is more heavily weighted with NVDA and TSM, which I already have exposure to.

TSM, Samsung electronics and UMC are an opportunity IMO. Fabs have now a lot of pricing power

TSM is also going down in AH 🤣

yes TSM calls

TSM calls?

Feels like a bullish week to me - no options buying but just bought ALAB, MU, TSM on margin (didn't learn from Leo)

$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSM $MU $SKHY
When BigTech cash flow negative .
Banks shutdown AI-debt load, after few blow up like “Situational Awareness story “. $45 Billion overnight
Then semi unwinds $2-3 Trillion
How long OpenAI & Anthropic keep cash burning $40 Billion a year ?

ABBV, AMGN, BAC, AVGO, CAT, CTAS, KO, COKE, COST, DE, FAST, HD, JPM, LOW, MA, MCD, PH, PEP, REXR, SCHD, SNA, TSM, TSCO, UNH, and VICI
VICI & REXR dont fall under the stated blue chip aristocrat category but I added them to boost overall dividend yield a bit as I believe in the two REITs long term being good

Alright, sold all three of my shares 😃
Now could my fucking 70 shares of TSM pump like this too!?!?

$SMH $MU $SKHY $SNdK $TSM $INtC $AMD $STX
How many Trillion AI-margin debt , when total margin debt 1.5 Trillion , last week wiped $45 Billion in a day, Situational Awareness.
Memory is cyclical, AI doesn’t mater
Ask any AI , why memory is cyclical?

Microsoft and Google are two of my biggest individual holdings.
(TSM, GEV and STRL round out top 5)

AGNC, AM, CHPY, DX, FEPI, GOF, GOOG, MLPI, NVDA, QQQI, SMH, TSM.
My 750k brings in 95k/yr in divvies, not counting growth.

I added some TSM. Not touching memory or INTC

A. The **Hyperscalers/Platforms/Compute** have had a very good few days since earnings last week. Obvious companies but the hyperscalers were punished for spending too much and now the ROI is showing. EG: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, NBIS, CRWV

My view: I built this one up while B was slipping.

B. The most crowded category the market has at least temporarily soured on: the picks and shovels. **Physical suppliers.** Capex dependent. Capex is still accelerating so the bulls are hanging tough. But the bears ask, are we near the peak of capex spending acceleration? EG: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, SK Hynix, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, ANET, VRT, LITE, COHR

My view: I reduced but the market may have overreacted down on concerns that the rate of capex spending won't keep accelerating.

C. There's Model, **Software** and workflow. They sell the layer that lets customers operate and deploy AI. EG: PLTR, NOW, PEGA, PANW, CRWD, DDOG, SNOW, CRM, ADBE
My view: PEGA may be undervalued now

D. Then there's the non-AI businesses where AI dramatically improves their returns more than others. IDK what to call them. **AI Value Creators?** EG: APP MELI TEM CAI INTU.
My view: This is the area I've most been interested in. CAI, APP, MELI.... After all the capex spending plays out these "boring" companies may be very good investments.
E. And **Power/Energy**. EG: GEV VRT ETN CEG VST TLN OKLO SMR BE
My view: Good. I haven't changed conviction.
F. There's also AI-enabled new markets, like robotics, space, autonomous driving, drug discovery, but they may fit into categories above. Lots of examples. Lots of interest. Some have a lot of future priced in.
This is all very loose with lots of overlap. Categorization isn't perfect so feel free to add your own.
Where's your conviction?

TSM and AMKR. Wild to me that they aren't.