TSM Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

MAIN NEWS:
* Market lower on Trump tariff escalation. Dollar also lower, as are US bonds, as investors flee US assets.
* DAX also lower on this news, into support.
* Main support on SPX is 6800-6825, below that 6720.
* Precious metals all higher as investors rotate into safe havens.
* CHF also higher for its safe haven appeal within currencies.
TRUMP TARIFF ESCALATION:
* Trump has stated that the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff starting Feb 1, 2026 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, & Finland, citing the “Greenland matter”.
* The tariff would rise to 25% on Jun 1, & stay in place until a Greenland purchase deal is reached.
* The main reasons being stated "officially" are the fact that Greenland represents a national security concern as it is essential for missile defence, and also the fact that US presence is required to stop Russian and Chinese expansion in the north. Realistically, the more likely motivation for Trump is Greenland's rich mineral wealth, as the US seeks independence from China with regards to rare earth materials.
* Senate Dems are saying that they’ll introduce a bill to block Trump’s new Greenland-linked tariffs, and we also have some ambiguity as to whether the tariffs will even be able to stand in light of the SCOTUS decision overhang, but this isn't preventing a knee-jerk market reaction.
* This comes as Bloomberg reports that the EU is preparing up to €93B in retaliatory tariffs and restrictions. The fact remains that Denmark remains a NATO member, and the EU is standing in solidarity with them, as Denmark's foreign minister made the following comments over the weekend: "You can’t threaten your way to ownership of Greenland. Europe will respond to the tariff threat, not Denmark.”
* At the same time, Chancellor Merz has spoken about trying to set a meeting with Trump on Wednesday at the Davos Conference, adding that "tariff benefit no one".
* The UK government has also signalled a softer approach, suggesting that they would avoid any involvement in retaliation.
* US Tsy Sec Bessent to Europe on Trump Tariffs Threats: "I will repeat... Do not Escalate, Trump has a strategy here... Hear him out. Everything will be Fine"
* The worst case scenario of this is that EU orchestrate a dumping of US bonds. highly unlikely as EU will themselves get hurt. Bessent on this said this morning: Europe is Not Talking About Dumping Treasuries. Europe Dumping Treasuries Is A 'False Narrative'
MAG7:
* AAPL - Apple’s next-gen iPhone 18 lineup is expected to have 12GB of RAM across the board (base/Pro/Pro Max, plus the rumored Fold), with the base model stepping up from 8GB.
* MSFT - JPM says MSFT are 10 light years ahead of anybody. "AWS provides infrastructure, GOOGL is more on the data...but MSFT is actually taking one full umbrella & saying, 'Wherever you are, doesn't matter. I am there to really connect you as an ecosystem **I think Microsoft is at least 10 LIGHT YEARS ahead of anybody"**
* TSLA - sold just over 20,000 Cybertrucks in the US in 2025, nearly 50% less than its first year. The slide got worse late in the year too, with Q4 sales down 68% YoY to about 4,140 units.
* AAPL - iPhone shipments in China jumped +28% YoY in the holiday quarter, taking the top spot. Apple’s share rose to 21.8% in Q4’25 vs 16.8% a year ago.
Other companies:
* NFLX - According to WBD's preliminary proxy filing Monday, Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amended their deal to all cash at $27.75 per share and moved the shareholder vote up to April 2026. WBD holders would also keep shares in “Discovery Global” after the planned split.
* USAR - plans a 3,750 tpy rare earth metal/alloy plant in Lacq, France, next to Carester’s 1,600 tpy Caremag oxide site (late 2026). France backing it via C3IV: up to 45% equipment tax credits + up to €130M real estate.
* NOW - Bernstein reiterates at outperform, PT 219, says it's a top pick for H2. ServiceNow is our top H2’26 application pick currently. Our CIO survey was most bullish about ServiceNow out of any application vendor. We think they deliver steady growth (demonstrating resilience vs. downside-risk narratives) and are very cheap on a DCF and relative basis. In particular, ServiceNow may even see incremental H2 revenue upside—not just because they may show cross-sell synergy traction from Moveworks, but even more importantly the upside from their GenAI offers."
* UBER - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi says he expects Uber rides to be “largely” robot-driven over the next 20 years as its safer:
* AXTI - Needham downgrades to Hold from BUy. "We are downgrading AXTI to Hold and moving to the sidelines. While we believe in the InP story fundamentally, we think the stock has outrun itself, and the obvious retail frenzy on the name has made it more challenging for fundamental analysts like us, especially at these levels. In addition, we see AXTI has very little control over its business, and believe the market seems to have underplayed the fact that how much revenue they can make is not up to the company but is dictated by the policy of the Chinese government, which should continue to be a risk for the name."
* MRNA - Moderna + Merck reported 5-year follow-up from Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 in resected high-risk melanoma: their personalized mRNA therapy V940 plus Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% vs Keytruda alone (HR 0.51).
* HON - Honeywell-backed Quantinuum is working with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan on an IPO as soon as 1H 2026. The deal could raise $1.5B+ and value it at $15-20B, versus an almost $11B post-money valuation last September
* TSM - CNA report Apple plans to use TSMC’s 2nm process for the AAPL iPhone 18’s A20 and switch packaging from InFO to WMCM, with WMCM capacity seen around 60K wafers/month by end-2026 and 120K+ by 2027.
* OPENAI - Evercore’s Mark Mahaney says OpenAI could build a big ads business: “a path to generating several billion dollars in ad revenue in 2026, going to $25B+ by 2030, seems reasonable,” driven by ChatGPT scale and “high-intent” performance marketing.
* HIMS - Morgan Stnaley preview of HIMS earnings. Looking back to the Q4’24 earnings call, the company set a high bar with 2025 guidance (revenue was guided 12% ahead of the Street compared to a range of 2%–6% above in the prior three years). We are positive on the long-term platform opportunity, but cautious near term given weak third-party sales data and potential risks to margins. While the correction in the stock since September has brought valuation back to a more balanced level and investors appear to be bracing for headwinds to growth in 1H and margin pressure, establishing credible 2026 guidance will be key.
* SHAK - Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight, raises PT to 125 from 115. We have not previously recommended SHAK and have long struggled with sales volatility, total addressable market, value proposition, and the desire to invest in the crowded burger segment. That said, 2025 was solid in a tough fast-casual backdrop, and if there is any year that has a higher probability of delivering better and more consistent top-line results, it could be 2026. Menu, digital, and marketing strategies are maturing, margin upside and unit growth remain credible, in our view, and we have long viewed the licensed part of the business as high quality and perhaps underappreciated in the share price. The stock has bounced YTD reflecting some of this, with 4Q known and 2026 guided, but still doesn't screen expensive for the growth profile. We upgrade to Overweight and raise our price target to $125 from $115 on \~22x 2027 EBITDA, up from 20x. Staying vigilant on execution will be key as management continues to reshape the brand." PDD - China has expanded its probe into PDD, the company behind TEMU after a reported fistfight between PDD staff and market regulators last month.
* ENPH - Goldman upgrades to buy from neutral, PT raised to 45 from 29. we believe confidence in these growth opportunities has improved while recent safe harboring activity is likely to push 1Q26 revenue above current consensus estimates. Additionally, we believe ENPH likely benefited from stronger-than-expected volume demand in 4Q25 on the back of market share gains and strong year-end follow-through from the cash/loan customer end market ahead of 25D tax credit expiration. In turn, we see ENPH poised to enter 2026 with some momentum, including lean channel inventories that provide a cleaner set up heading into 2026."
* INTC - HSBC upgrades to hold from reduce, raises PT to 50 from 26. "We had been cautious on Intel mainly given overall uncertainty on the customer pipeline and execution headwinds in its foundry business, while the core business was also lacking visibility on growth drivers. However, we now turn more positive as we expect traditional servers (DCAI) to get back on a growth trajectory. We expect there is an overwhelmingly increasing demand for server CPUs driven by rising agentic AI. We expect FY26E server shipments to grow 15%–20% year-over-year (vs. Street estimates of 4%–6%). While the stock has moved up 19% YTD (vs. the S&P 500 up 1%), we believe there is further DCAI upside still not fully priced in. Hence, we upgrade Intel from Reduce to Hold."
* APP - CapitalWatch claims its forensic report makes serious allegations around AppLovinsaying the company’s ad network could be used as an “ad-spend-as-laundering” loop tied to Tuandai .com (253.5B RMB allegedly raised) and Cambodia’s Prince Group. It also cites alleged “silent install” behavior via Array.
* MU on memory shortage: EVP says the memory shortage is “unprecedented” & has accelerated over the past quarter, with HBM for AI “consuming so much” industry capacity that it’s creating shortages for the regular market like phones & PCs. Customers are also trying to lock in supply beyond 2026
* TTWO - There’s been an explosion at GTA VI maker Rockstar North’s headquarters in Edinburgh, with early reports pointing to a boiler room incident and “structural damage.”
EARNINGS:
MMM
* Adj. EPS: $1.83 (Est. $1.80) ; +9% YoY
* Revenue: $6.1B (Est. $6.01B) ; +2.1% YoY
* Adj. operating margin: 21.1%; +140 bps YoY
FY26 Guidance
* Adj. total sales growth: \~4% (Adj. organic \~3%)
* Adj. operating margin expansion: +70 to +80 bps
* Adj. EPS: $8.50–$8.70 (consensus $8.61)
* Adj. operating cash flow: $5.6–$5.8B; >100% adj. FCF conversion
* “growth above macro… strong margin expansion… double-digit earnings growth and solid cash conversion.”
* “positions us to outperform the macro environment again in 2026.”
* “on a clear path to meet or exceed the 2027 financial commitments we outlined at our Investor Day.”
OTHER NEWS:
* Japan’s 10-year government bond yield just hit its highest level since 1998 amid growing fiscal worries.
* FED CHAIR POWELL TO ATTEND SCOTUS HEARING ON LISA COOK ON WEDNESDAY: AP
* BESSENT: IT'S A MISTAKE FOR FED CHAIR TO BE SITTING IN LISA COOK HEARING
* BofA Fund Manager Survey: Cash levels drop to record low, Investors most bullish since 2021, Global growth expectations highest since 2021 UK APPROVES CHINA'S PLAN ON 'MEGA-EMBASSY' IN LONDON
* US Tsy Sec Bessent: We'll See Substantial Refunds, Up To $1,000 Per Worker, In Q1
* BESSENT - We Could See Between 4%-5% Real Growth In US This Year. Urges Restraint On Escalation Against The US. Urge All Countries To Stick With Trade Deals
* Fed Chair Announcement Could Be As Early As Next Week, Four Candidates For Fed Chair
* SCOTUS set Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET for next opinions. But some say Trump’s tariff ruling may not drop until later in February. - BBG