TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Got bored and bought some MU, BE, TSM, SOXX, and NVDA. This just feels like some regular bullshit that’ll bounce by eow

Honestly I am newbie. I wish I could understand how to short because SNDK is dumping. TSM is dumping

Pulled 3 months of data on the entire AI supply chain (66 trading days, Feb 4 to May 6) and the thing has already split in half.
Took 19 tickers and sorted them into 5 layers from upstream to downstream: equipment, foundry, memory, design, hyperscalers. Ran correlations between them. Results were not what i expected.
Upstream moves as one block. Semi cap equipment stocks basically trade like a basket, intra-layer correlation 0.86, doesn't really matter which one you pick. TSM and NVDA also sit at 0.70, which makes sense since TSMC capacity ramping equals NVDA shipping more cards.
But the further down you go, the more things decouple. Design vs hyperscaler correlation is only 0.33, the weakest pair on the entire grid.
A few specifics: AMD vs MSFT sits at 0.23. AMD is up 71% over this window, MSFT actually down 2%. NVDA vs GOOGL is 0.24. Both up but on completely different timing (GOOGL +16%, NVDA only +12%). NVDA vs AMZN is just 0.30. AWS is one of NVDA's biggest customers and the stocks are basically moving independently.
Lining up the actual returns makes it even more obvious. Winners are all on the infrastructure side: INTC +131%, ARM +122%, AMD +71%, MU +52%. Losers are all on the application and cloud side: MSFT -2%, META -13%, TSLA -6%.
The old story was that hyperscaler AI capex eventually flows back into their own share prices. But over the past 3 months the market is voting the opposite way, money is moving upstream and downstream is not following.
What i haven't worked out: if AI spending isn't producing excess returns for the spenders themselves, how long can this capex cycle actually run? Or has the market already split AI into two separate stories, where upstream picks and shovels gets paid as orders come in, and downstream gold miners have to prove monetization first, and that proof hasn't shown up yet?
Anyone holding MSFT, META or GOOGL, is your thesis still working here?

My beloved $TSM 😞

I dca $TSM in the 400s. You’ll be Aii

Probably you need to ask yourself how risky do you want to go. Split the 10k into defensive, balanced and ventures. Mix between these buckets should be based on your risk appetite.
Defensive should be the infrastructure layer (ie NVDA/TSM etc). Balanced would be cloud layer (ie GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL). Ventures would be companies that you think will be successful in deploying AI in the coming years (eg software companies that you think is great but beaten down, PLTR, cybersecurity, etc)
If in doubt, buying the S&P 500 index or Nasdaq index would also work cos the biggest portion of it would relate to AI anyway. This is the no thinking required sleep easy at night approach.

Pulled 3 months of data on the entire AI supply chain (66 trading days, Feb 4 to May 6) and the thing has already split in half.
Took 19 tickers and sorted them into 5 layers from upstream to downstream: equipment, foundry, memory, design, hyperscalers. Ran correlations between them. Results were not what i expected.
Upstream moves as one block. Semi cap equipment stocks basically trade like a basket, intra-layer correlation 0.86, doesn't really matter which one you pick. TSM and NVDA also sit at 0.70, which makes sense since TSMC capacity ramping equals NVDA shipping more cards.
But the further down you go, the more things decouple. Design vs hyperscaler correlation is only 0.33, the weakest pair on the entire grid.
A few specifics: AMD vs MSFT sits at 0.23. AMD is up 71% over this window, MSFT actually down 2%. NVDA vs GOOGL is 0.24. Both up but on completely different timing (GOOGL +16%, NVDA only +12%). NVDA vs AMZN is just 0.30. AWS is one of NVDA's biggest customers and the stocks are basically moving independently.
Lining up the actual returns makes it even more obvious. Winners are all on the infrastructure side: INTC +131%, ARM +122%, AMD +71%, MU +52%. Losers are all on the application and cloud side: MSFT -2%, META -13%, TSLA -6%.
The old story was that hyperscaler AI capex eventually flows back into their own share prices. But over the past 3 months the market is voting the opposite way, money is moving upstream and downstream is not following.
What i haven't worked out: if AI spending isn't producing excess returns for the spenders themselves, how long can this capex cycle actually run? Or has the market already split AI into two separate stories, where upstream picks and shovels gets paid as orders come in, and downstream gold miners have to prove monetization first, and that proof hasn't shown up yet?
Anyone holding MSFT, META or GOOGL, is your thesis still working here?

TSM was my first stock pick too. Bought it in the same week when buffet sold when it was $90. Still holding

TSM was one of my first stocks when I got into trading. Sold it at 42$ a share for what I thought was big profit. I regret that now.

This is what intel did before falling behind and couldn't catch up because of all the patent advantage TSM built up over the years. + they had Apple and other large tech companies fronting the CAPEX for the FAB build out's.
That whole landscapes going to change once 1.4NM hits, and they are fighting the next gen chip after, as NA-EUV will have absolutely maxed out on what it can do and can't advance any further... and here comes the same scenario INTC was in, TSM is now years behind in knowledge with high na-evu lithography machines, and INTC has now piled up a 3 year advantage with patents. TSM won't fail as a company, but INTC sure as hell are being given a great chance to catch up here and potentially over take as the lead chip builder.

[Leopold Aschenbrenner](https://www.linkedin.com/in/leopold-aschenbrenner/). You can read more about him [here](https://phemex.com/academy/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner). He wrote [Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/) back in 2024, saying how TSM/NVDA was undervalued, then created his own hedge fund based on his paper. Bought semis, energy plays, neo clouds, and memory early on and I'm sure his fund has grown quite a bit. Not sure why he has [puts on all the AI chipmakers](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2045724/000204572426000008/xslForm13F_X02/salp13fq1xml.xml). 🙅🏻

Pretty much all tech stocks have done insanely well. I bought AMD at around $78 back in 2021, TSM around $106, and of course VTI at about $178, which I used to buy regularly.
The problem is I was younger back then and didn’t have much money to invest. Now I’ve finally saved up a decent amount and want to keep investing, but outside of VTI I honestly don’t know what to buy anymore.
Even though VTI still has strong fundamentals and I believe in it long term, the current price feels crazy compared to when I first started buying it a few years ago. Same with a lot of the big tech names.
Should I just keep dollar-cost averaging and put more money into the stocks I already believe in whenever the market pulls back? Or should I start looking for smaller companies that haven’t already gone up so much?
I honestly don’t know what the right move is in this market.

The quantum companies currently do not turn a profit. You have to be ok with being venture capital if you want to go this route. Very different than buying another share of Google nvda amd TSM or meta, all of which turn insane profits and grow profits quarterly.

Alright degenerates, gather round. While you’re all jerking it to Nvidia calls, BioNTech is quietly about to drop the most loaded ASCO presentation in years starting May 29th and the risk/reward here is genuinely retarded in our favor.
THE SETUP:
These guys took their COVID vaccine money (€16.8B cash on hand, yes BILLION) and went full mad scientist building a cancer drug empire. Now the bill comes due. Multiple late-stage readouts hitting in 2026 and ASCO is the opening act.
WHY YOU SHOULD CARE:
Pumitamig vs Keytruda (ROSETTA Lung-02 Phase 2) — They are literally bringing a knife to a Merck gunfight. Their PD-L1 + VEGF-A bispecific goes head-to-head against the $25B/year king of oncology in first-line lung cancer. If the Phase 2 data shows comparable or better efficacy, Phase 3 is already enrolling and the market is going to price in a Keytruda killer. TSM of the oncology world moment.
Gotistobart (PRESERVE-003 pivotal data) — Next-gen CTLA-4 that doesn’t wreck your immune system like Yervoy. Squamous NSCLC second line, already showed OS benefit at ELCC in March. Pivotal stage interim could land AT or RIGHT AFTER ASCO. FDA fast track + orphan drug designation already in pocket.
HER2 ADC BLA filing this year — Trastuzumab pamirtecan targeting HER2-low breast cancer. A whole new patient population. BLA drop in 2026. This one’s basically the bonus content.
THE BULL CASE IN ONE SENTENCE:
One positive pumitamig readout and suddenly BioNTech isn’t “the COVID vaccine company that got lucky” — they’re a legitimate multi-product oncology empire with 15 Phase 3 trials running and €16.8B to fund all of it.
POSITION June 18th 100$ calls - $60,000

Right, VGT is only USA tech and doesn't hold exUSA stocks like TSM, ASML, SK Hynix, Samsung, and some other holdings.
I agree, holding too many sector etfs has complexity and time commitment issues that may not be worth saving in an expense ratio.
Once you're at a +$1M portfolio position for tech, the difference between a 0.75% expense and 0.09% could be the difference between -$7,500 and -$900 respectively for just one year. VGT is an efficient etf for the stocks it holds and it can sometimes be worth long term not holding international stocks.

S&P500 to zero, TSM and NVDA to 100T

Wait for a green day to sell CC on my COIN, ASTS, TSM, CCJ bags.
Considering opening positions on RDDT, USO likely.

Strong lineup overall, but I’d personally focus less on trying to find the next big thing and more on owning the companies most likely to dominate their industries for the next decade. For me, the core would probably be NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, and TSM basically the backbone of AI/cloud infrastructure. Then I’d add a couple higher-upside names like PLTR or AMD, plus one speculative play for asymmetrical returns. I think the biggest advantage with an 8-stock portfolio is concentration, but the challenge is surviving the volatility without panic selling. A lot of people underestimate how hard it is to hold through 30–40% drawdowns even in great companies.

I have a lot my money in FSELX, a semiconductor mutual fund. This YTD is up 59%, annual performance 154%. I started buying tranches in 10/24. My assumption then and now is the demand for semiconductors will only increase for a long time. In the same arena, I hold short puts against TSM, AVGO, SOXX, SMH, and NVDA.

As someone who has all his shares in $TSM since last Sept (I thought I bought the top, HA)
Everyday I read "Semi's getting KILLED!!!" --- Then I check my portfolio and TSM is down 0.5%. Then proceeds to keep breaking ATH's with ease.