TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

But what’s wild to be is that $TSM didn’t even run up into its earnings like $AVGO. $TSM had been dumping for at least a month.
$MU has been dumping post earnings too but it that was after a massive after hours and next day price jump based on those earnings.
$TSM didn’t have a run up before or even a pop in the immediate after.

Bro, fuck my goddamn life. I buy into a fucking blue chip 2T market cap stock called TSM, and I get my ass fucking handed to me. My port has literally gone down as fast as it had when I was fucking with options, and I'm in fucking stock dude. Stock.
I'm holding, but jesus christ, down 8% in 2 trading days is fucking insane work.

I just opened a position in $TSM. I sold all my semi and memory ETF's $SOXX, $DRAM, and $EWY; and I'm only going to hold SK hynix and TSM stock which I believe are the 2 best of the best.
I'm just sticking w/ these 2 stocks for my semi positions and leaving every other semi stock and ETF alone.

TSM's earnings didn't really explain yesterday's price action. Record profit, raised guidance, and higher CapEx because demand is stronger than expected are all fundamentally positive over longer term.
The decline feels more like quant funds, leverage, and forced selling which can overwhelm fundamentals in the short term. Eventually, earnings tend to matter again.
If u own a single stock, expect price wobbles, dips and peaks... should be prepared for short term volatility that has nothing to do with the business. Over time, earnings and cash flows matter far more than short-term market positioning. Or, as Ben Graham put it, "in the short run the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine".

Google Finance causing TSM blip by reporting inaccurate EPS :D

Same with my positions in TSM, AA, ASYS, FSAGX,CLF.
I did get $2 in profit from selling T stock after weeks of holding. Not enough to even break a chip towards being even.

TSM at $500 in 3 months.

If TSM closes green today I will be walking with biggest boner the whole weekend.

Largely rotated out of semis and memory. Still holding some positions in AMD, NVDA and TSM but I'm tired boss. I need stuff I can forget about.

Of course. Didn’t you see that you can get memory anywhere now? Also that companies like TSM is increasing capex and making record breaking numbers? Right?

So basically me having all my money in TSM and Infineon… ill be fine right?😅

You think Mag7 reduces capex? TSM begs to differ

I'm hemorrhaging money with TSM stock and think it has huge potential gains, but I'm nowhere near this optimistic in the short term. Hope it bounces for you today, but man would I not count on it

IT does. But they don't need Micron or SK Hynix memory when they have CXMT. They don't need TSM or NVDA when they have SMIC and Huawei. They are catching up so fast in hardware, it's crazy. Even Apple wants CXMT memory. Last year Baidu had a breakthrough where they can mix and match Chinese and western chips to train AI - [https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/baidus-ai-breakthrough-can-meld-gpus-from-different-brands-into-one-training-cluster-company-says-new-tech-fuses-thousands-of-gpus-together-to-help-sidestep-shortages](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/baidus-ai-breakthrough-can-meld-gpus-from-different-brands-into-one-training-cluster-company-says-new-tech-fuses-thousands-of-gpus-together-to-help-sidestep-shortages)

Did you sell the TSM before earnings?

This all makes sense, and future growth is possible - but the current valuations are super ass. That’s what kept me out of it. I look at it daily, but I still don’t like it as an investment. You can have a smart thesis, good fundamentals and still not have a good entry or a good stock. TSM announced $1T in revenue and the stock dropped -3%. 😂 ONE TRILLION in revenue was not enough for even a 1% bump. It declined. That’s the world we’re living in now.

Q2 revenue came in at $40.2B, up 34% YoY, beating estimates. Net income up 74% YoY. Gross margin at 67.7%. These aren't soft numbers.
The part that caught my attention: HPC revenue jumped to 66% of sales, up from 61% last quarter. N2 node already contributing 3% in its debut quarter. Management then raised full-year growth guidance from "more than 30%" to "slightly more than 40%", and bumped capex to $60-64B. They also added another $100B to the Arizona commitment, bringing total US investment to $265B.
Been watching $TSM for a while and the bear case keeps shifting. First it was demand destruction, then it was margin compression from overseas fabs, now it's valuation. Pulled the chart on moomoo and the setup looks like the selloff already priced in execution risk on N2 ramp costs.
Q3 guidance is $44.6-45.8B, roughly 37% YoY. At what point does "valuation concern" stop being a reason to stay out?
I'm still long but the N2 ramp dilution and Arizona cost drag are real risks worth watching. Anyone trimming here or adding into the print?
https://preview.redd.it/yk9t65wl8sdh1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=63df266b45d121fd7f5d4df67dda2292680b0841
https://preview.redd.it/kf6v7mam8sdh1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=683ffce55b2ef40761c6c1328e8004442d2d03f1
https://preview.redd.it/31qll7pm8sdh1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f2198d5307574a3febc1ea0d725fb25a989e0d8
https://preview.redd.it/9laaqi8n8sdh1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=97105eeefe76e241385f9e7d13eed90a4c0ecf25

Hi there, I can help out.
We are aware that there is a known pricing issue regarding the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ADR (TSM). Our teams are currently looking into this.
We're here if anything else arises.

Can someone tell me how TSM has great earnings yet a stock like Nvidia goes down? Isn’t that literally a purchase order for Nvidia?

Been watching this setup for months and ngl the whole bull thesis is basically one CapEx word away from flipping.
S&P 500 is tracking 23.3% YoY EPS growth this quarter, highest since 2021. Sounds great. But NVIDIA and Micron alone are driving nearly 40% of that. Strip them out and the index growth story gets a lot thinner.
The real tell is gonna be Alphabet on July 22 and Microsoft on July 29. If the CapEx commentary drops from "accelerating" to anything softer, the entire AI infrastructure trade gets repriced fast. Micron already printed 85% gross margins and TSM raised full-year guidance above 40%, so the supply chain is screaming demand is real.
But Samsung beat by 19x YoY and still got sold off 7%. Market is clearly not rewarding backward-looking beats anymore. It wants forward guidance, specifically hyperscaler commitment language.
Pulled the options chain on moomoo and the vol positioning into those two reporting dates is pretty telling. Calls are loaded, which means the pain trade might actually be to the downside if anyone blinks on CapEx.
45% Of fund managers call AI the biggest tail risk. I'm still long semis but trimmed some upside exposure ahead of GOOGL. Am I being too cute here, or is anyone else running a similar hedge into these prints?
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