TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

TSM has took flight 🚀

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock

I have most my money in google and TSM

Did I mention a bomb?
A bomb for the global economy because TSM produces for the big players.
You're right, 20 years is an exaggeration, but so far! TSM is the gold standard.
The nanometer thing can happen; I've been looking into chips extensively these past few weeks.
And no, you're right—I've never been inside a factory, but a coach who's never played football can still understand the game.
I appreciate your criticism because I'm always eager to learn!

Google 100%. Youtube booming, cloud booming, doing TPUs. They are tremendous right now. I also really really like ASML and TSM, pretty much monopolies of an industry that will keep growing massively. Paypal is another one, but it's riskier.

Pretty good return on TSM also 😋

If i'd get a dollar every time someone says that, i'd actually have even more money than if i invested in TSM

Agreed on TSM. Without the geopolitical threat, they’re double their value.

TSM TSM TSM TSM

I have decided to use VEA + VWO because I dont "like" the VXUS ratio for both etfs, I want to have the same % of emerging and developed markets. Thats why.
Thanks for your suggestiions! I will investigate SMH of other semicondictor ETFs, as I started with TSM because they are the main chips producer, but when paying dividends, I lost 35% ...

TSM and it’s not close. They produce 90% of advanced chips. No one else has the infrastructure, manufacturing capability, and supply chain that they’ve spent decades mastering. Huge moat snd huge profits. The device you’re reading this on more than likely has a chip built by TSM.

How is it not working?
It may not be working to the effect we thought or pace.
Even if a few manufacturing has invest and started breaking group (Apple in their new chip factor $ TSM & Hyundai) - this is legitimate breaking ground and construction crews on the ground building.
This is active investment , not future investment. To me, I may lack economic understanding, but these would not previously have been done without tariffs would you agree?

Note: as English is not my native language I used AI to proof-read this post and help me deliver my points more clearly, but the experiences are my own.
I learned a lot from Reddit and I just thought this could give some back.

TL;DR: Coming from value investing. learned options trading online to generate income in different market conditions. Made 20% first year, hoping to keep going the same way.
**My background**: 38 Years old engineer.
Started investing (without understanding, mostly ETFs) when I was 16. Since then mostly very passive broad-market indices.
2020 Did an online course in value investing that really upped my understanding and everything started making more sense and i have been value investing since then with decent success.
The problems with value investments are that they can take a long time to recover in case of a recession or market downturn and it can take a long time to be right.
I wanted to complement it with something more dynamic, something that I could potentially profit from regardless of market direction. I also relocated recently and had to quit my job, this allows me to keep producing income and I do hope to retire early if I feel this can be sustainable enough.
I did a course on swing trading but could never really turn a profit in a demo account. Then I discovered options trading - no course or something like that, just a lot of reading online.
Honestly the hardest part was letting go of all the scary stuff people tell you about options and finding sound, well-established sources online.
I learned mostly from:
* Tasty Trade / Tasty Live
* Interactive Brokers webinars
* Sheridan Webinars
* Reddit mega-posts
Once you know how the mechanics work and what you are looking for its easy to filter out a lot of nonsense online. I made my first trade July 2024 but really took my time learning and experimenting until Dec '24 - Jan 25' .
My trading approach:
* No hype chasing. No juicy premium chasing. Everything starts with a quality estimations of moats, balance sheets, P/E, etc. If a company looks good it goes on my shortlist. I mostly focus on tech companies, consumer defensive, finance & insurance, few others.
These companies are complemented by some ETF I trade options on like SPY, XLV, XLF, etc. I try to diversify across sectors and industries.
I do try to trade crude oil and natural gas to generate income, but all the other commodities are a problem for me since I don't know how to valuate them (not to mention crypto!).
* I aim to mainly profit from Theta decay. If the position is challenged I would roll for credit as much as possible. If still ITM I would get assigned and transition into a wheel strategy.
* I usually of for 20 Delta (actually between 10 and 30, depending on how discounted the stock price currently is).
Important note: being assigned on a quality stock at convenient price is not a bug, for me it's a feature! Buying a world leader company sometimes 30-40% under its high and collecting the premium in the process is fine for me.
* If it's price is close enough to it's fair value I would sell CSP against it. If not, I would either:
* Wait.
* Sell put spread / call spread / both.
* If I am more adventurous but still I might do a put ratio or a butterfly, but that doesn't happen often.
* Most trades are 30-60 DTE, although I sometimes do 1-7 DTE if the price is convenient enough. I normally don't close positions early if I don't have something better to use my capital for.
* I used to really try to avoid earnings but since then learned that the market can surprise you every day: a new tariff, a CEO getting shot, a new Open AI partnership spiking the mega cap stock by 30%, or just some other news so I pay less attention to it now.
* A few words about my portfolio:
* I usually 70-120 trades a month.
* I aim for an overall Theta of 0.1%-0.15% of the portfolio Net Liq.
* I usually sell naked up to 2X-2.5X of net liq. some people might say its risky, perhaps. To me it feels less risky selling several 15 Delta puts across different industries with low correlation than selling a single 30 Delta on one stock. In over 1100 trades I got assigned probably less than 10 times, and only 3 of them were "surprises" (UNH, LULU, SNPS).
As Tom Sosnoff says: "Trade small, trade often".
* Except stocks held for covered calls as part of the wheel, all my capital is in REITS, short term bonds ETF and cash. this produced about 4% yield for me.
* Options trading have generated an additional 15-16%, resulting in overall return of 20-21% (sorry it a bit hard to calculate).
* My Net Liq. was \~360K and now 415K.
|Month|P/L|\# of trades|
|:-|:-|:-|
|January|$764|57|
|February|\-$11,387|78|
|March|$15,180|104|
|April|$16,987|61|
|May|$1,404|62|
|June|$9,108|92|
|July|$5,653|43|
|Aug|$6,852|104|
|Sep|$13,094|161|
|Oct|$12,887|169|
|Nov|$9,279|98|
|Dec|$10,201|96|
|**Total Realized**|**$100,345**||
|**Total with assigned positions (Realized+Unrealized)**|**$75993**||
* Some tickers I traded (not all of course): GOOG, AMD, SNPS, MSFT, UNH, TSM, ASML, TGT, COST, NFLX, AMAT, LRCX, BABA, O, XLV, XLF, SMH, IWM, JPM, V, USO, IBKR, SCHW, TXN, AMZN, PG, MCD, PEP.
* Challenges in 2025:
* Tariffs tried to shake be but I kept on keeping on.
* UNH and LULU burned my hand. I am still selling calls against them and have decided to move away from apparel companies.
* Plan for 2026:
* Keep going strong and cool no matter what. Goal is at least 18% but I hope for \~22% to reach that nice round 500K Net Liq. In the longer term I do hope to generate a stable income of around 100K/yr with less risk so I can retire from my day job.
* Automate screening and decision making.
* AI is challenging many SW companies' moats in my eyes. I will stay away from most of them without unique IP and products like SNPS, CDNS, ADSK, etc. For example TEAM is a company I thought had a great moat but not so sure anymore.
* Find more diversification. Maybe mid-cap, commodities or REITS.

I hope this brought you some value, interest and motivation in your trading.
Feel free to ask me anything you like

Hey mate, not a financial advisor so whatever I say hereunder, take it with a "pinch of salt."
Your portfolio is solid but suffers from "ticker bloat," as you’re holding redundant assets that do the exact same thing. Specifically, VOO/SPY and QQQ/QQQM, they are functionally identical but have different fee structures. Since you’re holding and not selling, your best move is to direct all new capital only into VOO and QQQM to minimize expense ratios. You are currently very "top-heavy" in US tech because about 85% of what’s in QQQ is already inside VOO. This is fine in a bull market, but it means you aren't as diversified as the number of tickers suggests.
​The biggest risk is your 20% concentration in TSM. While it’s a legendary company, putting a fifth of your net worth in one ticker, especially one with significant geopolitical risk; is a massive gamble for a long-term retirement plan. I’d suggest trimming that to 10% and moving the rest into your VOO/QQQM core.
As for your plan to pivot into dividends (SCHD/O) in 10 years, that’s the right move; at 31, you should prioritize total growth over yield to avoid unnecessary tax drags. Simplify the "buckets," reduce the single-stock risk, and let the compound interest do the heavy lifting.
Best of luck nate 💯 and again, fact check my information ℹ️
Regards 🍻

VOO and QQQM are solid plans for long term. I’d swap TSM for SMH or related semicon ETF just to be on the safe side. I’d also just get VXUS instead of VEA and VWO. Speaking of the remaining 10%, looks good to me.

I built a pipeline to extract and synthesize investment ideas from \~500 manager letters (Q4 2025 and January 2026). The goal wasn't to find "good companies" but to find where manager estimates diverge from consensus—the setups where earnings revisions are most likely to drive price action.
# Methodology
I parsed each letter looking for:
1. **Explicit estimate divergence** — Manager states their revenue/EPS estimate vs. street
2. **Contrarian positioning** — "The market misunderstands X"
3. **Catalyst specificity** — Not just "great business" but "what changes in the next 12 months"
4. **Conviction signals** — Position sizing, "top idea" language, depth of writeup
Each idea was scored 0-5 based on how clearly the manager articulated *why consensus is wrong*. A company can be fantastic but if the street already models it correctly, there's no edge.
# Three Dominant Themes
**1. Physical AI > Software AI**
The biggest rotation in the letters is *away* from SaaS and *toward* the physical constraints of AI buildout—power generation, grid infrastructure, copper, cooling. Multiple managers argue Wall Street models the "AI beneficiaries" (Nvidia, MSFT) but completely misses the second-derivative impact on utilities and industrials.
Names: Caterpillar, Siemens Energy, Targa Resources, Cameco, copper miners
**2. The "AI Loser" Arbitrage**
Several managers are buying companies the market has priced for disruption by AI—but they argue these businesses are *integrators*, not victims. The thesis: AI makes their product better, not obsolete.
Names: Wix (AI builds better sites for SMBs), Auto Trader UK (AI can't replicate verified inventory trust), LSEG (45% of data is proprietary real-time feeds that can't be scraped), Duolingo (engagement machine, not translation app)
**3. International Deep Value**
Managers are finding absurd discounts in "uninvestable" pockets—UK small caps, Japanese micro caps, and specific event-driven situations trading at historic discounts to US equivalents.
Names: Burford Capital, Toyota Industries, Swatch, Ascentech (Japan)
# Highest Conviction Ideas (Manager Estimates vs. Street)
**Caterpillar (CAT)** — Antero Peak
Manager's 2028 revenue estimate is 7.9% above consensus. Thesis: Street models CAT as purely cyclical, missing secular demand from data center power generation. Trading at "cyclical trough" multiples despite new growth drivers.
**Shift4 (FOUR)** — Greystone, Marram
Manager models $10-11 EPS by 2028 vs. \~$63 stock price (<6x forward). Market values it as legacy processor; manager sees vertically integrated payments compounder. Target: $140-155.
**Burford Capital (BUR)** — Focus, Highwood, Langdon
Three independent managers argue the market assigns *zero or negative value* to a $6B+ legal judgment (YPF/Argentina). Market cap is $2B. The judgment alone, if collected, exceeds 3x the equity value. Core business trading near 2019 prices.
**Limbach Holdings (LMB)** — 1 Main Capital
Manager calls this "most lucrative investment since inception." Thesis: Market sees cyclical contractor; manager sees structural margin expansion from 3% to 12% via business mix shift. Bought after 55% decline.
**Toyota Industries (6201.T)** — Elliott
Activist campaign argues the current tender offer values the core business at <1x EBITDA. Elliott sees path to ¥40,000/share NAV by 2028 (double the offer) via unwinding cross-shareholdings.
**Wise (WISE)** — Long River
Market punished stock for margin compression (22% → 16%). Manager argues this was deliberate "scale economies shared" that accelerated volume growth to 38%. "Most asymmetric investment in our portfolio."
# The Battleground Stocks
**Fiserv (FI)** is the most contentious name in the sample:
* **SOLD by:** Weitz, Renaissance, Troy, Third Avenue — Reason: "Aggressive accounting," broken trust, guidance cuts
* **BOUGHT by:** Vulcan Value, Forager — Reason: "Kitchen sink" quarter, too cheap for a payments duopoly
This kind of split—where quality managers capitulate and deep value managers step in—is often where the interesting setups live.
# What's Being Sold
**SaaS "seat count" risk** — Multiple managers exiting Salesforce, Workday, Atlassian, ServiceNow on thesis that AI reduces human headcount (and therefore software seats).
**Broadband** — Charter and Comcast sold due to competitive intensity from fixed wireless and fiber overbuilders.
**Taking profits** — Trimming gold miners, Costco, Netflix after strong runs.
# Most Mentioned Tickers (New Buys + Adds)
|Ticker|Count|Notes|
|:-|:-|:-|
|GOOGL|10|Near-universal position across growth managers|
|TSM|7|Consensus "picks and shovels" play|
|WIX|3|AI beneficiary, not victim|
|BUR|3|Event-driven consensus|
|SE|3|SE Asia e-commerce recovery|
|LRCX|3|Semi-cap equipment|
# What I Found Most Interesting
1. **The SaaS exodus is real.** Not a few managers—a systematic rotation out of software toward infrastructure. Worth monitoring if you're long enterprise SaaS.
2. **The best ideas came from smaller managers.** Third Avenue, Elliott, 1 Main Capital, Stone Sentinel had the most differentiated theses. The big shops mostly owned the same 20 names.
3. **Contrarian ≠ value.** Several growth managers are making contrarian calls (Wise, Duolingo, Sea Ltd).
4. **Litigation finance is having a moment.** Burford appeared in three letters independently.
# Limitations
* Letters are marketing documents. Managers talk their book.
* Survivorship bias in which letters get published.
* "Conviction" is inferred from language and writeup depth, not actual position size data.
Happy to discuss any of these names or the methodology. What stood out to you?

BTC TSM weeklies at around 75% profit x3
BTC ORCL 162.5 P for a slight loss (0.4) when ORCL was up at the start of the day. Decided I was nervous about more bad OpenAI news this week crushing the stock.
STO HOOD CCs at 115 Feb 13. My basis is around 110 so deeply underwater atm, trying to claw a bit of that back. Might not be the best choice as I do remain optimistic long term.

When will they recalibrate some of these funds to lessen concentration risk? VWO with 11% in TSM and VYM with nearly the same in Avgo isn’t my idea of diversification. I just keep selling both rotating more into vxus. 

TSM plan played out perfectly

TSM backbone of my port has just been a straight march up consistently