TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

DRAM, EWY, TSM, SMH, WDC. I'd stay away from RKLB, there isn't immediate profit in space like there is in memory and chip stocks, which are all selling the nuts and bolts of the AI datacenter buildouts.

Come on TSM. Give me 447 today and I'll use the profits to take a trip to Taiwan I swear.

cmon TSM, get to $500 so I can rotate that money to SPY in my retirement fund

So in the current state, its clear that US companies are global leaders, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA etc. There are other companies that can compete like TSM, Samsung, but its still over indexed with US companies.
Will they continue to dominate forever?maybe, no one knows.
Even global index are heavy in US stocks.
This is why you bet on both on a US and Global index. You dont have to pick one.
Rebalance when your risk profile changes, move into bonds.

Ooooo Sony and TSM please be on this list 😭

so the NVDA AGM is happening today, June 24, 9am Pacific. stock has been dragging back near $200 and honestly idk if this meeting is gonna be the catalyst or just another nothingburger.
what I'm actually watching:
Blackwell ramp. the whole supply chain thesis hinges on whether they can clear the bottlenecks. if Jensen even hints at delays, MU and SK Hynix are gonna feel it too.
Vera Rubin. this is the part nobody talks about enough imo. NVDA is trying to pitch itself as an "AI factory" platform now, not just a GPU vendor. if the messaging today leans hard into that, the whole narrative shifts.
capital return. buybacks, dividend bump, anything. at $200 with the recent pullback, a meaningful return announcement would put a floor in pretty quick.
I pulled the chart from moomoo earlier and the $200 level has been tested a few times already. feels like a coiled spring but I've been wrong before lol.
the downstream names like AVGO, SMCI, TSM, MPWR all move with whatever tone comes out of this meeting too. it's not just a NVDA event, it's basically a referendum on the entire AI hardware trade.
fwiw I'm holding shares, no options this time, got burned last earnings trying to play the IV crush.
anyone else loaded up going in? or sitting on the sidelines waiting for the dust to settle?

wtf TSM

ok so the semi bleed got kicked off by SK Hynix and Samsung tanking overseas, and now every chip name on my watchlist is red. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, QCOM, MU, TSM, all got dragged in.
been digging through the moomoo community feed trying to figure out if this is a real "AI trade is broken" moment or just a valuation reset, and honestly it feels more like the latter. nothing in the actual demand picture has cracked yet, people are just running for cover.
the catalysts I'm watching before I add more:
Qualcomm investor day. they NEED to prove AI is more than phones, like edge, PC, auto, data center. if it's just "smartphone story v2" the stock gets punished.
Micron earnings. HBM demand check, DRAM pricing, NAND recovery. this is the cleanest read on AI memory pipeline.
PCE print. yields move, semi multiples move. simple as.
TSM June revenue. real time supply chain signal. if orders are still hot the panic looks dumb in hindsight.
any new model drop from OpenAI, Anthropic or Google. could light a fire under compute demand overnight.
fwiw I'm not catching the knife yet, waiting on at least 2 of those to come in green before I size up. got burned in 2022 trying to call the bottom on chips way too early.
anyone actually buying this dip or sitting on hands like me? curious what level on NVDA gets people interested again

“Low quality semis” is doing a lot of work there. NVDA, AVGO, and TSM aren’t exactly penny stocks. They’re printing record revenue on actual AI infrastructure demand, not hype. The rotation out of CRM/PLTR into semis isn’t dumb money chasing memes; it’s institutions following where AI dollars are actually landing right now, at the silicon layer, not the application layer. You can disagree with the trade, but the thesis is coherent.

Need TSM to hit 447 tmrw so I can take my earnings and ~~cash out~~ put it all on WEN

MU is not even close to being the bottleneck… SK Hynix and Samsung have a bigger market share in HBM chips than MU who’s #3 but wouldn’t want to actually use facts.
Hence the hence the market (nasdaq) took a massive shit when folk thought SK Hynix was scaling down HBM production vs SK is just wanting for TSM to scale up production of the Rubin GPU so they decided to produce DDR5 in the meantime.
See next ya when MU stock has doubled!

Please let this TSM pump mean something. My calls need this

Dont forget TSM. You want long term growth go with TSM. They make most of the cpu’s in the world; they make NVDA’s chips as well as AMD, ARM, apple’s M chip, and many many many others.
The only risk with them is if china invades Taiwan.
I’d put half of those NVDA shares into TSM and half of the rest into anything else.

1. Dividends for income. Diversified, stable portfolio.
2. Growth assets to keep the divs growing to match the S&P and beat inflation. Such as index funds.
3. Have some money left over for risky bets. You never know. Like Buffet said, you only really need to pick one winner in your life. E.g. if you bought NVDA early. A small investment can make a fortune. I got lucky with NET, bought $18K worth, now have $218K and it's still going up. NBIS recently, $4K got me $20K in just a few months. TSM was pretty good too, $50K is now $200K.

FRDM is also an interesting thematic intl etf that currently has SK, Samsung, and TSM at the top but no Micron.

I bought MU, DRAM, TSM & COHR

The entire point of VT is that sector outperformance might not necessarily last forever.
If you believe big tech will dominate for your entire lifetime, obviously don’t invest in VT.
Invest in VT if you still want a piece of tech, because VT already owns everything in QQQ and big tech is already a huge chunk of the global stock market, but you also want downside protection from other sectors.
VT = QQQ with downside protection and upside drag in the form of every stock not included in the Nasdaq 100
QQQ = the same thing as VT without the downside protection and upside drag of every stock on the planet outside the Nasdaq 100
So to answer your question:
People who invest in VT are not leaving money on the table.
They are trading in growth for security.
Conversely, people who invest in QQQ are not leaving security on the table.
They are trading in security for growth.
Every asset is a balance between security and growth. Even securities in an inflationary context are a balance between risk and growth.
Your post seems to suggest QQQ is more growth without more risk; or that VT is less growth without stability to compensate.
Simple answer: people pick VT despite it underperforming big tech not because they are idiots but because they are not confident in the continued overperformance of big tech.
Personally I don’t take either extreme.
I don’t think big tech is the be all end all, but I also want to capture its growth.
So I own a lot of VT (which remember is already tilted to big tech just based on market cap weighting) and then add some QQQ to tilt it even further towards big tech, and then I have individual stocks within QQQ to tilt it even further.
So I would say my portfolio is pretty heavily tilted towards big tech and AI despite having an 80% VT core.
The 20% satellite sleeve is entirely tech or tech supply chain (REE, energy) or tech cyclical (chips? maybe?).
And then even the 80% VT core still rises and falls with big tech, just with drag on both upside and downside.
They’re not as different as you think when you pop the hood.
Either way you are buying lots of big tech. VT and QQQ.
I would say Bogleheads are playing a really safe game. Not leaving money on the table but not being greedy either.
The ones leaving money on the table to me are the not the VT investors. The VT investors still own loads of Nvidia and TSM and ASML and hyperscalers through their VT.
The people leaving money on the table are not the VT owners betting on the entire market (which includes tech).
The people leaving money on the table are the ones not investing in big tech at all.

I think MU will beat earnings. It will be down to guidance, IMO. I think 4 out of the last 5 earnings MU has dropped, but then rallied to ATH. That last earnings drop was due to the high capex spending, but if I recall everything else was good. MU may drop more heading into earnings and even after. I don't think it will drop much under $1,000, but it could get down to that number. Today is red across all semis and tech so it seems it is macro more than just MU's earnings. Anyway, it is probably a good buying opportunity if you're wanting to get into MU, STX, WDC, AMD, or TSM. Not financial advice, just one poor soul that is heavy in the red today

Been digging into TSMC's roadmap on moomoo this week and the CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) stuff keeps coming up. Honestly I had no idea panel-level packaging was this close.
Quick rundown of what stood out to me:
Square panels apparently hit 80-90%+ chip utilization vs 65-70% on 12-inch wafers. 510x515mm panels = roughly 4.5x the effective area. They're claiming 20-30% packaging cost reduction over current solutions.
Timeline they're working with: demo tools in validation phase, pilot production by 2027, mass production in 2028. So not a tomorrow story, but the setup is interesting.
NVDA's Feynman GPU is rumored to be one of the first adopters. Equipment names that come up a lot: AMAT, KLAC, LRCX. Packaging side has INTC, AMKR, ASX. Materials chain pulls in GLW, MKSI, Disco.
What I keep going back and forth on, is this really a TSM-only moat through 2030, or do AMKR/ASX catch up faster than people expect once the tooling matures? CoWoS capacity is already a bottleneck so the urgency feels real.
fwiw I'm long TSM already, not adding here, but the supply chain plays look more interesting to me than the headline name.
anyone here actually working in semi packaging? curious if 80%+ utilization on panels is as clean as it sounds or if yield is gonna be a nightmare for the first 2 years.

LIN, CCJ, XXON, SOXQ, TSM.