TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Thats exactly why the spreadsheet cant become a shrine. It has to mark business power, not just EPS growth. AMD can keep growing the numbers while the seat gets less comfortable if Intel stops bleeding & TSM keeps holding the foundry choke point. the trap is treating past execution like a permanent moat. Reprice the next five years, not the last three. if the edge narrowed, the multiple has to answer for that.

I transferred an IRA from a managed Morgan Stanley account to a self managed Fidelity account. All the funds are invested in individual stocks. I want to get this into ETFs, mutual funds, and bonds. I sold off a bunch of them already but I didnt know what to do with all the higher value ones. Is it best to just sell all the stocks? Should I hang on to 50% of them? Whats the best course of action here?
|Symbol|Description|Quantity|Current Value|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|AAPL|APPLE INC|45|$13,587.30|
|NVDA|NVIDIA CORPORATION COM|60|$13,382.40|
|AMZN|[AMAZON.COM](http://AMAZON.COM) INC|38|$10,069.05|
|GOOG|ALPHABET INC CAP STK CL C|25|$9,624.25|
|MSFT|MICROSOFT CORP|20|$8,415.60|
|AVGO|BROADCOM INC COM|15|$6,263.17|
|LLY|ELI LILLY &CO COM|5|$5,083.57|
|META|META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A COMMON STOCK|8|$4,837.28|
|XOM|EXXON MOBIL CORP COM|18|$2,817.36|
|GE|GE AEROSPACE COM NEW|9|$2,697.30|
|VRT|VERTIV HOLDINGS CO COM CL A|8|$2,520.96|
|TSM|TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING SPON ADS EACH REP 5 ORD TWD10|6|$2,409.36|
|NFLX|NETFLIX INC|26|$2,289.82|
|AMD|ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC|5|$2,230.20|
|ETN|EATON CORPORATION PLC|5|$1,897.70|
|PFE|PFIZER INC|69|$1,777.78|
|TXN|TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC COM USD1.00|5|$1,524.37|
|WMT|WALMART INC COM|10|$1,305.25|
|DDOG|DATADOG INC CL A COM|6|$1,273.02|
|APH|AMPHENOL CORP CLASS A COM USD0.001|9|$1,103.44|

which is why the AMD case is actually trickier than TSM because AMD's competitive moat in CPUs got way thinner once Intel started actually executing again, so you can have solid earnings growth and still be buying into a worse competitive position than you had three years ago even if the absolute numbers look fine on a spreadsheet.

Thats the real work. A five year low isnt automatically value & a high multiple isnt automatically poison. The spreadsheet has to answer one ugly question. Where does the next dollar have the best forward claim on earnings, cash flow & patience. If TSM still earns the seat, it stays. If the cheaper name only looks cheap because the business power got worse, thats not redeployment. Thats buying a lower price tag with worse machinery under it.

and that's where it gets uncomfortable because you actually have to do the math on whether TSM at these valuations still justifies new capital when you could dump it into something trading at five year lows that might have the same upside over five years, which means sitting down with a spreadsheet instead of just feeling good about being right early.

Thats the ol trap. Cost basis belongs in the tax folder. Not in the decision. The market doesnt care that you were early. It only asks whether the next dollar still deserves to sit there today. Sunk cost dressed up as a win is dangerous because it feels smarter than fear. It lets you keep holding for the wrong reason while pretending discipline is conviction. If AMD or TSM still earn the seat then fine. Keep them sized. If they dont then the old gain is just a souvenir. The money was made back then. The risk is alive right now.

(TSM) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company...Insider Buying. 👍

BTC my TSM and SNDK puts at 70% profit each
NVDA just has too much weight in this market, I have no clue how they will impact those tickers.
Better to wait and then redeploy capital post earnings

Thats the real problem bad names are easy to sell. Good names make you argue with yourself. AMD & TSM still have real reasons to own them, so the old gain cant be the reason to bail. New money needs todays case. Existing money needs todays risk check. If the business still earns the seat, keep it sized like an investment. If the position only stays because the cost basis feels pretty, thats not discipline. Thats nostalgia wearing a profit badge.

Isn't the deal Lisa Su was pursuing a new one? In other words, TSM is still the main supplier. I don't think it will affect AMD too much in that case.

The hardest part is that AMD and TSM actually still have solid reasons to own them today, so you can't just use the gains as an excuse to bail and feel smart about it.

This is the value investing subreddit so many here will not like the stocks I buy, but I have a very well researched and informed thesis and have stuck to it for years and profited handsomely. These are the percentage allocations for new money I put into my stocks. I never sell unless my thesis is proven wrong or something fundamentally changed with the company. I buy every single Friday morning regardless of price.
My space portfolio is relatively simple. For tech, it is a bit more nuanced. I am trying to capture full stack AI infrastructure (ie, power, liquid cooling, circuitry, transformers, chip foundries, chip architecture, etc etc etc). Every company plays a role. I will direct money to DRAM that would have gone towards SYM or IONQ if I feel I’m getting a deal when I buy.
Space
* RKLB: 50.0%
* PL: 20.0%
* ASTS: 20.0%
* FLY: 5.0%
* BKSY: 5.0%
___
Tech
* DRAM: 12.5-17.5%*
* NVDA: 7.5%
* TSM: 7.5%
* ASML: 7.5%
* AVGO: 7.5%
* GOOGL: 5.0%
* AMZN: 5.0%
* NBIS: 5.0%
* ARM: 5.0%
* ANET: 5.0%
* VRT: 5.0%
* CEG: 5.0%
* MRVL: 2.5%
* COHR: 2.5%
* APH: 2.5%
* ETN: 2.5%
* MPWR: 2.5%
* AMAT: 2.5%
* TER: 2.5%
* SYM: 0-2.5%*
* IONQ: 0-2.5%*
___
Tech Organized by Sector
* Compute, Foundry & Architecture (20.0%)
* NVDA: 7.5%
* TSM: 7.5%
* ARM: 5.0%
* Networking & Connectivity (20.0%)
* AVGO: 7.5%
* ANET: 5.0%
* MRVL: 2.5%
* COHR: 2.5%
* APH: 2.5%
* Providers & Dedicated AI Cloud (15.0%)
* GOOGL: 5.0%
* AMZN: 5.0%
* NBIS: 5.0%
* Infrastructure, Power & Utilities (15.0%)
* VRT: 5.0%
* CEG: 5.0%
* ETN: 2.5%
* MPWR: 2.5%
* Semiconductor Equipment & Testing (12.5%)
* ASML: 7.5%
* AMAT: 2.5%
* TER: 2.5%
* Memory & Storage (12.5-17.5%)
* DRAM: 12.5-17.5%*
* Emerging Tech: Robotics & Quantum (0-5.0%)
* SYM: 0-2.5%*
* IONQ: 0-2.5%*

anything cery technical that requires infrastructure. TSM would probably be the cleanest example

TSM does great hindsight analysis.

Interestingly, it's exactly the same conversation that I have been having with myself over the last few weeks. I made a good investment in SMH 02/2024 and have held it all the while making multiple semi buys. It's not an easy compare with the rise of the semi so relatively new but one thing that stands out is the volatility over 250 days of the ETF averages mid 30 percentile while the stocks are twice that with NVDA and TSM being the best performers at about 5 & 10 percentage points higher. So the heartache factor is less with the ETF. The performance is mixed but again, the age of the real growth hampers the analysis. In the end, for today, I am going to satisfy myself that I have done my DD and the result it that I am selling the 1/2 of my positions that underperforming SMH and put the proceeds in SMH. I don't know that this is helpful to the general conversation, but I can say the conversation focused my attention sufficiently to work thru several spreadsheets and analysis of actual performance; whether past performance leads to future results remains to be seen. IMHO, not one company has a golden egg, and it comes down to how their performance is evaluated by the market. The ETF is a nice way to pick up broad exposure and after all, I'm not as smart as those managing these funds.

Got bored and bought some MU, BE, TSM, SOXX, and NVDA. This just feels like some regular bullshit that’ll bounce by eow

Honestly I am newbie. I wish I could understand how to short because SNDK is dumping. TSM is dumping

Pulled 3 months of data on the entire AI supply chain (66 trading days, Feb 4 to May 6) and the thing has already split in half.
Took 19 tickers and sorted them into 5 layers from upstream to downstream: equipment, foundry, memory, design, hyperscalers. Ran correlations between them. Results were not what i expected.
Upstream moves as one block. Semi cap equipment stocks basically trade like a basket, intra-layer correlation 0.86, doesn't really matter which one you pick. TSM and NVDA also sit at 0.70, which makes sense since TSMC capacity ramping equals NVDA shipping more cards.
But the further down you go, the more things decouple. Design vs hyperscaler correlation is only 0.33, the weakest pair on the entire grid.
A few specifics: AMD vs MSFT sits at 0.23. AMD is up 71% over this window, MSFT actually down 2%. NVDA vs GOOGL is 0.24. Both up but on completely different timing (GOOGL +16%, NVDA only +12%). NVDA vs AMZN is just 0.30. AWS is one of NVDA's biggest customers and the stocks are basically moving independently.
Lining up the actual returns makes it even more obvious. Winners are all on the infrastructure side: INTC +131%, ARM +122%, AMD +71%, MU +52%. Losers are all on the application and cloud side: MSFT -2%, META -13%, TSLA -6%.
The old story was that hyperscaler AI capex eventually flows back into their own share prices. But over the past 3 months the market is voting the opposite way, money is moving upstream and downstream is not following.
What i haven't worked out: if AI spending isn't producing excess returns for the spenders themselves, how long can this capex cycle actually run? Or has the market already split AI into two separate stories, where upstream picks and shovels gets paid as orders come in, and downstream gold miners have to prove monetization first, and that proof hasn't shown up yet?
Anyone holding MSFT, META or GOOGL, is your thesis still working here?

My beloved $TSM 😞

I dca $TSM in the 400s. You’ll be Aii