TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

CPU demand has only gone up since 2000 too. More AI/GPU demand doesn’t mean more profits if/as commoditization happens. Amazon, Google, Cerebras, OpenAI, Microsoft, AMD, and others are all making or working on making competing chips. TSM, INTC, Terrafab, and others all working night and day to produce tons more chips. Supply squeezes like we’ve seen in GPU and memory almost always (i can’t think of a counter example?) lead to an oversupply eventually, which leads to cheaper materials and helps increase the utility of the underlying result (AI) at lower costs (commoditization). NVDA has seen record revenue growth and margins the last 3-4 years. Buying today implies a lot of those higher margins and revenue growth is sustainable for the next decade. I don’t think you’re getting much margin of safety here depending on how your view “normalized” long term revenue + growth, and margins. From these levels, will revenue grow 20%/year for a decade while maintaining 60% net margins? Historically normal margins for NVDA were 20-30% on the high end. Of course, if NVDA grows revenue 30% for 10 years while maintaining 60% margins it will undoubtedly be a bargain today, but i’m not sure why that would be a reasonable expectation given all the competition coming (and that will come).

The drama continues. I wonder if this will upset TSM Morris Chang. And produce more AMD chips. >Before His Ouster, Jensen Huang Belittled the Executive Replacing Him - WSJ https://www.wsj.com/tech/jensen-huang-colette-kress-nvidia-ceo-eb289097?eafs_enabled=false

TSM

Michael Burry (Trades, Portfolio) said the grip Nvidia [NVDA](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NVDA/) has on the AI supply chain may be loosening following Jensen Huang's exit as CEO, and he has added to wagers against tech shares. Burry said Nebius (NBIS), TSMC [TSM](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-TSM/), ASML [ASML](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-ASML/) and CoreWeave [CRWV](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-CRWV/) have leaned on Nvidia's dominance and financial backing. He is monitoring whether that influence fades over time**, and he named Broadcom** [**AVGO**](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AVGO/) **and Advanced Micro Devices** [**AMD**](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AMD/) **as possible winners.**

LRCX is a chip equipment manufacturer with a huge moat and market share. Their biggest customers are TSM and MU

Well that dip was bigger than I expected. Need TSM to come back to about 407.50 to save me rn

ASML TSM KLAC ADI if I was going to be concentrated in semis.

ASML, TSM, GOOGL, NVDA. Feel good holding all four

Same TSM ASML have very good books they actually if anything undervalued they have backlog of orders

I only feel comfortable holding ASML and TSM

How? All the production is bottleneck at TSM, SKH and MU.

TSM

Jensen Huang’s abrupt resignation on November 12, 2026—following revelations of extramarital affairs with a subordinate and an alleged Chinese intelligence asset, alongside federal probes into chip diversions—marks the most seismic leadership vacuum in Silicon Valley history.  With Elon Musk publicly stating it *"would be an honor"* to hire Huang, and a potential \~$3.4 trillion SpaceX–Tesla merger reportedly targeting a December announcement, Huang's next move will reshape the global semiconductor and AI landscape.  1. Retirement (most likely ) Given the immediate legal and political fallout—including a closed-door Congressional briefing over $4.8 billion in chips routed to Singapore and active DOJ investigations—Huang faces an unavoidable period of laying low. At 63 and worth over $150 billion, he has no financial need to work, though his notoriously relentless work ethic makes permanent retirement unlikely unless legal settlements force it.  2. Starting a New AI Chip Company Huang could deploy tens of billions of his own capital—backed by sovereign wealth funds—to build a next-generation semiconductor company Of course, he’d have to cash out every single Nvidia share before making that move. 3. Becoming CEO of Terafab This is the most explosive and plausible "revenge" scenario. Musk’s joint SpaceX–Tesla venture in Texas—aiming to build an end-to-end logic, memory, and packaging mega-foundry targeting 1 million wafers per month—desperately lacks veteran semiconductor leadership. Musk has already signaled openness to bringing Huang into the fold.  4. Becoming CEO of a Merged SpaceX and Tesla With SpaceX (valued around $1.9T) and Tesla (\~$1.5T) reportedly negotiating a record-shattering merger, handing operational control of the combined entity to Huang would mirror Tim Cook’s operational stewardship of Apple—freeing Musk to act as Chief Product/Technology Architect.  5. CEO of TSM TSMC’s chairman first offered Jensen Huang the CEO job back in 2013, and he turned it down because he was too busy building Nvidia. Well, his schedule just cleared up.

The only thing is he is 64 years old now. These years he frequently goes back to Taiwan probably due to his family, nostalgia and great food. I am not sure if he wants to fight back in the shit pool again. He may end up being accepted by TSM.

Nvidia’s Key Suppliers IP: $ARM Fab: $TSM, $INTC Memory: $MU, $SNDK, $WDC Packaging: $ASX, $AMKR, $CAMT Equipment: $KLAC, $LRCX, $ASML, $KEYS Networking: $COHR, $GLW, $FN, $LITE, $APH Servers OEMs: $DELL, $SMCI, $JBL Power Systems: $FLEX, $MAAS, $VRT Power Electronics: $STM, $ADI, $MPWR, $NVTS, $ON The real AI trade is the entire stack

Translation of just the text in mandarin seen in the 1st and 3rd notification: "Earnings notification" (no stock name). Translation of the 2nd notification (full text): >**American Depositary Receipt (ADR) Pass-Through Fees** Account U\*\*\*\*6908 recently traded the following American Depositary Receipt (ADR) position: [TSM@IBKRATS](mailto:TSM@IBKRATS). ADR positions may be subject to pass-through fees. Please visit our FAQ... Now I'm a bit confused, u/Objective-Cap5902 please clarify if you detected any change to the language settings in the phone or in the IBKR app, and if you also see these notifications in mandarin in the Client Portal and in the Desktop apps.

Here's my guess: Jensen knows the limitations of Nvidia, the risks of competition closing in, and the ways in which nvidia's architecture and design could potentially hold it back. I think there's actually a large chance that Jensen will take his $160 billion, hand pick a hyper-focused hyperintelligent team of Nvidia loyalists, and build the next generation of chip company. His relationships with hundreds of suppliers will transport 100% over to his new company, and his ability to get Fab allocation from TSM will remain strong with this new entity. The company will explode onto the scene out of nowhere and eventually become a challenger to Nvidia.

buy chip stocks-sans TSM

I was more alarmed by that than his side pieces. 😂 There is zero percent chance he had enough time to speak to SIXTY DIRECT REPORTS with any sort of actual connection or understanding in a given day, unless they were titles in name only with him driving everything anyway. Hopefully one of the 60 can get their notes together for Nov 17. 😅 What’s interesting to me is I assumed he’d maintain a board seat. He is not. He only owns a 3% stake… so not majority shareholder. (Blackrock. They already replaced him on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was still exerting influence from behind the scenes, but they really did everything to remove him from all avenues that left him with potential power. Who knows, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up back on the board in six months. That is if he’s not working for Elon, or TSM.

Plus shareholder lawsuits, staff leaving, top talent not wanting to join due to the scandal and no visionary leader. IMO they’re fucked for 1-2 years. If I’m them, I just rip the bandaid off: 1. Sandbag guidance next week to reset expectations 2. Come clean with Congress and US government. Be open you will cooperate with investigations and collaborate to ensure export controls are respected. 3. Hire a top shelf external CEO asap. You need to get the biggest name you can find to get investor confidence and have them hit the road to Asia to ensure they continue to get maximum capacity from TSM, SK, other major suppliers. 4. Throw Jensen under the bus and distance yourselves as much as possible. Explain how you’re changing your policies and operations to ensure folks at the company don’t potentially violate the law in the future. People are too quick trying to time the bottom. There is still a lot of bad news to come. Look at how long Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon languished dealing with antitrust cases. Nvidia’s business is printing cash and the stock is dirt cheap but investors won’t touch this thing until the investigations are behind us.

I have much more NVDA, so I will have to say NVDA. NVDA, TSM and MU have been my top 3 semiconductor picks for the long term. I have been loaded up these 3 along with AMD, AVGO during the crash. I just started to trim AMD since it has gone up a lot since the crash, it was around $400. And they haven’t changed even after Jensen’s resignation.

Do you know how many people told me I was a moron when I bought longterm options calls on AMD, NVDA, TSM etc… in April 2025 because of Trumps big bad tariff war, esp on Reddit. I use it as a gauge to know just how right I usually am.

Have to increase supply to gain anything so phone calls to TSM

The affairs are no longer a problem for Nvidia. The problem will be whether they circumvented export controls. Did they break the law with MegaSpeed and other companies? Even though Jensen has been fired, assuming the law was broken, other Nvidia employees will have been involved. All their Asia sales will be investigated by congress and various departments such as justice and commerce. Plus shareholder lawsuits against Nvidia are coming. Nvidia did the right thing firing him but this is a fuckin mess that will take 1-2 years to clean up. All Nvidia can do now is comply with investigations, agree to tighter export controls, and hire an A+ CEO immediately to rebuild Wall Street’s confidence and secure capacity with key suppliers. Jensen spent a lot of his time in Taiwan and Korea getting sweet heart deals with TSM, SK, etc. Nvidia needs to hire an external CEO asap who can hit the road and get ensure their supply is guaranteed beyond 2028.

Ah so TSM is gonna walk away from their largest customer because of a leadership change? Ok sure 🙃