TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Got out of my TSM calls early and now I'm balls deep in AAPL calls
Someone please hold me I'm scared

Portfolio:
Hyperscalers: GOOGL, AMZN
Semiconductors: TSM, NVDA, AVGO
Financials: SPGI, GS
Industrials: GE, GEV, CAT, NOC

Some of the stocks I hold I bought a long time ago with significant amount of gains, so I wouldn't buy them at today prices.

This year being overweight on Industrials have been a major success with my portfolio almost outperforming the Qs, I would argue my portfolio is at a higher quality than the Qs, and these stocks I bought just this year. I bought Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) that doubled in a month, so I took profits immediately. During Iran Dip, I pointed out that buying investment banks like GS and MS would be prudent from record high IB activities, which panned out exceptionally. I will be taking profits on GS after wave of IPOs like Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Canva, or SK Hynix moving to US stock market.

This quarter, I decided to take profits on Caterpillar (60% gains in 3-4 months), because although it a momentum winner I lack conviction holding a cyclical Industrial at PE of 50. The swap for this would be Microsoft and Meta, which I will buy $5000 each. We can go into details why each of these names, but I supposed about 1000 other posts already mention why, so my thesis will be as simple as these stocks have wide moat with pricing power. Buying stocks that valuation go down while balance sheet strengthen (overtime) cannot go wrong.
Even though I am quite young, I try my best to follow Chris Hohn's investing principles. When the AI super cycle end, I would want to be in these forever moats that will outlive any crises. These principles value predictability, non-cyclicality, consistent cash flow, pricing power (non-commodity). This is why I will never want to hold memory like Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Sandisk because of commodity (no pricing power - margin pressure) and unpredictable cash flow, so I can't care less if these stocks go up into the right to me these businesses are inherently low quality. The same applies to utilities like Vistra Corps, NextEra, CEG high CAPEX to build out with low margin selling commodities so low quality businesses. Another example could be NVIDIA and AVGO, which is unpredictable cash flow, but more consistent because they don't sell a commodity.

Over the long term, I want to be holding long term predictable cash flow wide moats like S&P Global, Moody's, Visa, Mastercard, GE Aerospace, Ferrovial. The only semiconductor I think is almost forever moat would be TSMC. Of Course the hyperscalers.
STRONG BUY LIST: SPGI, META, MSFT
BUY: NVDA, GOOGL, NOC, AVGO

Watch List:
FER (Ferrovial) - wide moat, transportation, extremely high quality
V (Visa): wide moat, networking effects, extremely high quality

NVDA RSI is in the low 30s so it is nearing oversold. I recommend being patient and selling SMH when its RSI is closer to 70 if you want to carry less NVDA or generally less volatility.
The MU weighting is around 6% vs 8% respectively so a 10% increase in MU moves SMH 0.6% and SOXX 0.8%. 0.2% is not a big difference.
Keep in mind you lose much more weight in TSM and ASML when going from SMH to SOXX.
If you want more MU, better to buy DRAM instead of switching from SMH to SOXX. You really don't need much to heavily tilt a portfolio toward memory production.

with Micron great earnings and After the AI bubble talk dust is settled, Is this a good strategy to invest in?
\*\*35% AI compute\*\* → NVDA, AVGO
\*\*25% semis + memory\*\* → TSM, MU, AMAT
\*\*20% power / data center\*\* → VST, CEG
\*\*20%\*\* → IONQ, RGTI, OKLO

No, hold on.
Stocks over the short run are usually NEGATIVELY skewed. Terminal wealth alters the distribution via compounding and the risk premium but that's only after long hold periods.
This was a short period and momentum alone (due to luck) could have easily "beaten" VOO. This "experiment" was ultimately just too short and narrow to offer any insights anyways. But to be clear, a LOT of people can "easily" (ie: luck) beat the SP 500 or TSM over a month or two. That's just noise and/or luck.
It's over long periods that the market portfolio shines.

**35% AI compute** → NVDA, AVGO
**25% semis + memory** → TSM, MU, AMAT
**20% power / data center** → VST, CEG
**20%** → IONQ, RGTI, OKLO

LMAO\*\*2. The mystified fools in this echo-chamber have been ignoring basic investing fundamentals for many quarters. The stock is now back to it's October'25 levels. In the meantime the opportunity loss has been overwhelming by missing DELL, TSM, and especially INTC. You're so enamored with Jensen that you've lost your basic investing skills.

TSM, AVGO, ANET.

Intel har en extremt ansträngd värdering. "Priced for perfection" som man säger. Det är inget jag hade ägt i dagsläget. Vill du äga chipproduktion så är TSM betydligt mer rimligt värderat givet tillväxt och balansräkning.
Investor och industrivärden är bra men substansrabatten är låg eller obefintlig idag. Jag passar på att köpa när substansrabatten ökar.
ABB är väldigt högt värderat relativt estimerad tillväxt och kassaflöden. Det är inte heller något bolag jag hade köpt på dessa nivåer.
Svenska storbolag är generellt sett väldigt högt värderade givet deras mediokra estimerade tillväxt.

Next month has TSM/Samsung/SK earnings we gonna have some more panic or what

Should have bought TSM instead of GOOGL

I had already bought at $52.5 and I actually was planning on grabbing DRAM Monday night/Tue morning at around $78-$80.
That was before shit the fan with all the BS sell off news cuz SK Hynix decided to put HMB4 production on hold (not reduce production) to make more DDR5 chips due to the shortage vs sitting on their ass waiting for TSM to start fabbing enough NVDA Rubin GPU’s to send product.
So watching MU getting crushed on Tuesday sucked, I think it dip $140 in one day BUT it gave game me the opportunity to grab more DRAM shares at $69 (my favorite #).
Long story short, MU should at a min run for another 2 1/2 months, these earnings were absolutely insane so Im not should how they top the numbers next earnings. 🤷🏻‍♂️ However I plan on picking up more share between $80-$90 til the end of July.
The secret sauce, SK Hynix is expected to be listed on the US market in Aug, bringing more liquidity into the company. Which hopefully that a boost to DRAM since they already own shares in KRX.

Low risk: GOOG, TSM, MU, NFLX
Some risk : VST, NOK, RDDT
High risk: ONDS, PL, NAUT, MBLY, SERV, VEEV

Eventually is fine. But I don’t think you realize how are far out “eventually” might be, because demand is not going to hold still.
MU just reported 84.9% gross margin, and we have barely just begun.
In 2015 I thought “I should buy TSM, the demand for chips will only continue to grow as tech continues to grow”. In 2020 it went hyperbolic at 400% and then the “bubble popped” in 2022, -240%.
Except now, only 4 years after that, it’s +1,800%.
Why hasn’t “supply caught up”, in 11 years?

Keep holding VOO, GOOGL, TSM, and VXUS

Replaced NVDA with TSM and I am much happier.

Goddamn my TSM monthlies are gonna print so hard. Shame I could only buy 5 of them

Micron (MU) reported strong earnings after hours, which is a meaningful catalyst for my current positioning since it’s my largest holding.
I’m currently fairly concentrated in semiconductors and large-cap tech, with MU (\~5.8K shares) being the core driver. Other notable positions include TSM, LITE, and INTC, while MSFT, AAPL, and GOOG are smaller lagging positions in comparison.
Over the past few weeks I’ve been gradually:
trimming strength in select positions
adding selectively on pullbacks
maintaining a relatively high conviction in semis due to demand and cycle expectations
MU’s print helps reinforce the current setup in the sector, though I’m still watching guidance and broader macro conditions closely.

More bad news for chip makers, hyperscalers, and data centers. Not only does MU and SNDK want all the money, so does TSM...Move up the bankruptcy clock.

Yes it's like musical chairs but NVDA and AVGO feel done to me, while INTC, SNDK, MRVL, MU also feel done but can still surprise you, and TSM feels like it's ready to pop.