TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

They are still supply limited. If TSM can increase their fabrication rate/yield there will be more chips toe sell

I’m an anesthesiologist.
Would need to know more about your situation to give good advice, as a lot of it depends on your skillset and resources. I found the highest paying job I could right out of training in a LCOL area and saved and invested aggressively. Once I maxed out my retirement accounts, I took half of my take home and put it in the market and swung for the fences. I’ve had a few ten baggers (NVDA, TSM, AVGO, RKLB, to name a few). My safety net is my work retirement accounts but I have several million across my taxable brokerages and my Roth. Don’t buy depreciating assets. Dont overpay for shit. Be smart with your money, take care of your health, and don’t marry the wrong woman. You’ll be fine.

TSM very suspicious close (in a good way) - Of course happened after I sold my 1DTE calls just so I can withdraw $50 from my account (yes I am that broke)- Hope the very small, further OTM position I left open pays off tomorrow 🙂🙏🏻

Sold my TSM call for a loss, you can buy now to get rich off my pain. You’re welcome.

|**Stock**|**Current Price**|**ATH**|**percent to ATH**|off from ATH|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**AMD**|**$546.57**|**$584.73**|**6.98%**|**6.53%**|
|NVDA|$218.74|$236.54|8.14%|7.53%|
|TSM|$426.28|$479.00|12.37%|11.01%|
|SMH|$559.68|$671.83|20.04%|16.69%|
|MU|$977.53|$1,255.00|28.38%|22.11%|
|INTC|$110.86|$142.35|28.41%|22.12%|
|MRVL|$241.21|$329.88|36.76%|26.88%|
|AVGO|$349.16|$495.00|41.77%|29.46%|
|STX|$800.48|$1,145.00|43.04%|30.09%|
|SNDK|$1,602.12|$2,354.39|46.95%|31.95%|
|LRCX|$268.59|$438.50|63.26%|38.75%|
|ARM|$259.76|$452.70|74.28%|42.62%|
|AMAT|$415.50|$739.67|78.02%|43.83%|
|WDC|$423.37|$799.87|88.93%|47.07%|
AMD has recovered faster than other semis. We may end up retesting or breaking ATH before the next ER.

AMAT isn't a chip manufacturer. They build the machines used by foundries like TSM that make the chips. If you want to be bullish on them, you need to ask yourself if foundries have the ability to expand which increases the demand for production equipment.

They are still supply limited. If TSM can increase their fabrication rate/yield there will be more chips toe sell

I’m an anesthesiologist.
Would need to know more about your situation to give good advice, as a lot of it depends on your skillset and resources. I found the highest paying job I could right out of training in a LCOL area and saved and invested aggressively. Once I maxed out my retirement accounts, I took half of my take home and put it in the market and swung for the fences. I’ve had a few ten baggers (NVDA, TSM, AVGO, RKLB, to name a few). My safety net is my work retirement accounts but I have several million across my taxable brokerages and my Roth. Don’t buy depreciating assets. Dont overpay for shit. Be smart with your money, take care of your health, and don’t marry the wrong woman. You’ll be fine.

TSM very suspicious close (in a good way) - Of course happened after I sold my 1DTE calls just so I can withdraw $50 from my account (yes I am that broke)- Hope the very small, further OTM position I left open pays off tomorrow 🙂🙏🏻

Sold my TSM call for a loss, you can buy now to get rich off my pain. You’re welcome.

|**Stock**|**Current Price**|**ATH**|**percent to ATH**|off from ATH|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**AMD**|**$546.57**|**$584.73**|**6.98%**|**6.53%**|
|NVDA|$218.74|$236.54|8.14%|7.53%|
|TSM|$426.28|$479.00|12.37%|11.01%|
|SMH|$559.68|$671.83|20.04%|16.69%|
|MU|$977.53|$1,255.00|28.38%|22.11%|
|INTC|$110.86|$142.35|28.41%|22.12%|
|MRVL|$241.21|$329.88|36.76%|26.88%|
|AVGO|$349.16|$495.00|41.77%|29.46%|
|STX|$800.48|$1,145.00|43.04%|30.09%|
|SNDK|$1,602.12|$2,354.39|46.95%|31.95%|
|LRCX|$268.59|$438.50|63.26%|38.75%|
|ARM|$259.76|$452.70|74.28%|42.62%|
|AMAT|$415.50|$739.67|78.02%|43.83%|
|WDC|$423.37|$799.87|88.93%|47.07%|
AMD has recovered faster than other semis. We may end up retesting or breaking ATH before the next ER.

AMAT isn't a chip manufacturer. They build the machines used by foundries like TSM that make the chips. If you want to be bullish on them, you need to ask yourself if foundries have the ability to expand which increases the demand for production equipment.

What do you mean your country? USA?
VRT is the worst play if you want to be in semis. If you wanna be in semis, be in semis, not a connected builder or infrastructure or energy connection. Get into the source of it. TSM. NVDA.
GEV is extremely overvalued right now.
Don’t develop a mental relation to a company because you like the angle they provide - look at their company fundamentals, spread sheets, debt, earnings/projected earnings/future contracts (lots of stuff hinging on the future? Not a fan of that personally) do they make money TODAY. Look at their latest earnings. Negative.
Overvalued hyperscaler related AI infra company. So is Eaton. So is Vertiv. Those will be the last of the companies to get paid when these data centers come online anyways. With the hundreds of billions of debt buildout, if I was betting on anything in that world - I’d bet on the front end - TSM, SKHY.
Not a fan of MU, too pricy, or any of the memory companies stupid over valued rn STX WDC SNDK.
For me:
Energy holds: MPC, VLO, CVX, XLE
Semis: TSM, SKHY, NVDA, DRAM
That is all that’s in my portfolio currently, we’re clearly in a bubble that will pop after the buildout is done so I see no point in letting slow money grow in a broader index fund. Run it up fast while you can. Buy gold. Buy bitcoin. Hedges against inflation. Have cash for emergency fund and for dip buys. Maybe some gambling options $.
That’s just me
Good luck

Send money to ASML, TSM and NVDA 2-3 years and forget

TSM war ja eigentlich der richtige call :D

über die verpassten Möglichkeiten rege ich mich auch auf.
ich habe im Masterstudium ca. 2010 einen Vortrag über Kryptowährungen halten müssen. aber dann haben Professoren erzählt das hätte keine Zukunft. Ich hatte sogar einen Kollegen der Bitcoin gekauft hat, aber dann bald wieder verkauft hat. Wenn mir jemand erzählt, er habe Bitcoin verkauft (so ca. 2015) und damit Gewinn gemacht, dann wäre das ja genau der falsche Zeitpunkt um das zu kaufen
dann habe ich im Bereich KI promoviert. Da kannte ich aber einen Spruch, “ im Goldrausch verkauft man kein Gold sondern Schaufeln.”. deshalb habe ich nicht NVDA sondern TSM gekauft. Dank Thetawheel-Strategie habe ich dann damit sogar Verluste realisiert
Da müsste ich lernen anderen Leuten nicht zuzuhören

I can confidently say none. I have some (handful) individual dividend stocks that are well researched and have done great in terms of growth over the years (GS, CVX, TSM, etc) and most of the rest in index funds (sp500, Russell, some tips and short term treasury) and SGOV.
SPYI for income to cover housing in case of job loss. That’s not part of the growth strategy, just for peace of mind.

The Fed decision is the main event today, but at this point the 25bp hike itself is secondary and the more important question is what the Fed signals about the path from here.
So the real risk tonight is whether the dots validate the additional tightening the market has already priced.
Now, how is the market positioning according to the datapoints I am tracking.
Bullish TLT volumes are picking up quite a bit as you can see from the chart below. The bullish flows hitting the treasury ETF mean that expectations for a drop in yields are increasing.
While positioning is still leaning negative
[Options Volumes TLT](https://preview.redd.it/x6oa6raf0vph1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e400f8f0c54baf02586a6be0de36bb22c991dfe)
https://preview.redd.it/ssjkcpjg0vph1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=65761c1ea9ce699baf995dcbe5110e9ede03269d
Options market is pricing and implied FOMC-day move a bit under ±1%. for the SPX
That translates to roughly 7,5 points in SPY which aligns with how much it has moved on FOMC days.
The important thing is that options are not pricing an unusually large fear premium
https://preview.redd.it/wyrpzwui0vph1.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=1559d2b94d6aa90ec9901ce4c0a93212b170c84f
But do note that through Friday the implied move closer to 13 points
Performance of the S&P500 has generally been good on first hike days recently as you can see from the table with the exceptions being 94 and 97
|**First Fed Hike Date**|**S&P 500 Performance on Day**|
|:-|:-|
|February 4, 1994|\-2.30%|
|March 25, 1997|\-0.20%|
|June 30, 1999|0.016|
|June 30, 2004|0.004|
|December 16, 2015|0.015|
|March 16, 2022|0.022|
What I’ve also been seeing is some strong bullish options activity in IWM, the ETF tracking the Russell 2000. This is an indirect bet that rates are going to remain contained, as the small-cap index is very rate-sensitive.
https://preview.redd.it/7hfhxyx11vph1.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=58c4dd87c3c8b3e4028c950ac34decf89b625902
VIX, which, if you remember, saw some aggressive call buying ahead of the sell-off, has now started attracting some bearish flow. The strikes are quite far from spot though so I wouldn’t read too much into it as a near term directional signal as it looks more like cheap positioning for an extreme move lower in volatility.
https://preview.redd.it/tjkdc1n51vph1.png?width=835&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c6effcbf87863e3679bda5a4c152e34ead4e1eb
Some data on the PCE diffusion metric that Warsh introduced during Jackson Hole, and it should be falling in August, so this could make him a bit less hawkish.
https://preview.redd.it/xlmui8e61vph1.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc9375b40f8ba77bf794e852120d53dcf1028664
This is from a GS report this morning showing that their models are also showing PCE lower
https://preview.redd.it/5wecz9571vph1.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcc1539c7c760bff29df9a6d11eb21867c309a22
if we get a 25bps hike with no forward guidance, or a 25bps hike while guiding that the October and December rate cuts will be taken back, then thats probably it. The market will likely like that.
That would start a transition toward a calmer vol regime after OPEX.
If, however, he uses wording like rates need to be “materially” higher, then I think the market is going to react very negatively.
Then $750 on the SPY comes into play. This is the main level for now and it will provide some stabilising flows as long as iot holds. If price moves below it, market makers will turn to aggressive hedging and exaggerate the move to the downside.
https://preview.redd.it/8z9r3y391vph1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff86520c714335a78cbca179a915f35eee05ac1d
Note that the 750 level corresponds almost perfectly to the implied move the market is pricing as of premarket price early morning.
740 should be a daily bottom if Warsh comes out very hawkish - options market positioning in the next 5 DTE contracts is almost non existent.
https://preview.redd.it/odquqj2a1vph1.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=608afbd48be3aa176908dfb1b06892136592a1ec
I do wanted to share one more datapoint which is making me more cautious and its some massive bearish flows hitting TSM - deep-ITM call selling ahead of the Fed decision, with the contracts expiring Friday and covering Fed and its immediate aftermath is a big hedging/beraish signal, although the headline premium of about $500m. is heavily inflated by intrinsic value.
https://preview.redd.it/yf4zzvqa1vph1.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1db358d80aaeb6b45a7e3c373cf5fdacde3fdbd
TLDR - The 25bp Fed hike is priced, so the real market risk is what Warsh signals about the path from here. Positioning is mixed but broadly suggests expectations for contained yields and no major fear premium, with bullish TLT and IWM flow offset by still-negative Treasury positioning and some notable bearish hedging in TSM. A measured hike with limited forward guidance could be taken well and help volatility calm after OPEX. Language suggesting rates need to move “materially” higher will pressure equities. For SPY, $750 remains the mian level, with a break below potentially triggering more aggressive dealer hedging and opening the door toward 740.