TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Rough week for anyone holding semis. Chip stocks dumped 11% Wed into Thursday and my port felt every bit of it.
The one that really got me was $MU. Down 14% on the week, worst since March, and the multiple compressed from 11x to 7x in like two weeks. Pulled the chart on moomoo and it looks like it fell off a cliff. At 7x either it's a value trap or the market way overshot, idk.
Zoom out and it's ugly everywhere. Mag 7 shed around $2.3 trillion in June alone. MSFT off 20%, NVDA 13%. Goldman's high-beta momentum basket fell 18% in two days, apparently the steepest since 2020.
Now everyone's staring at this week for a read. Samsung Q2 guidance on DRAM/HBM, TSM June revenue, and the SK Hynix ADR debut Friday which honestly feels like a retail sentiment test.
The thesis I keep coming back to is whether AI infra spend actually holds up or if it was all just NVDA concentration. If hardware stabilizes and the non-AI names hold, maybe this was the flush. If chips break again, look out below.
Anyone still bullish on semis here or did everyone bail? Am I crazy for eyeing MU at 7x?

*TSM

Yep sold out of Micron and TSM to move to Meta and Microsoft. I'm not losing any sleep and am confident long term.

And BTW "Apple Pay" is a digital wallet. You can put a Venmo debit or PayPal debit/credit card within Apply Pay, it is not a direct competitor. "Apple Cash" is a competitor but TSM metrics showing large volume and disruption are for Apply Pay, some of that volume goes through PYPL. Makes sense when you realize Apple Pay has beena round since 2014.

I buy & hold $VXUS, $EWY, $EWJ, and I trade $DRAM for my AI/Semis positions.
My thesis is different from many others here I am sure. I think we are seeing the beginning of a long term cycle of cash move from West to East. The AI cap ex spenders (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and META) have stopped all their stock buybacks and are now spending all of their 2026 FCF, diluting shareholders, and adding debt and sending the majority of that cash to Pacific Asia. (SK Hynix, Samsung, ASML, TSM, Kioxia and Softbank).
I want to own the indices that are receiving this cash and reinvesting that cash back into their local economies (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) This has more volatility than $VTI, $QQQ, or even $SOXX as I also face USD currency fluctuations. But I am looking at the long term big picture as we enter a new market cycle.
I own $DE for the USA data center build out since it is trading at a much cheaper valuation than $CAT.
Good Luck

is anyone here gonna play ASML and TSM earnings next week? Sorry, I should ask - can anyone here afford ASML calls / puts to play?

my NVDA position losing the race with my TSM position
and the NVDA position is like 6x the size
help

AVGO, TSM, GOOG, and MSFT

That's why rumors are only rumors and short term investing is perilous. It's better to look at say Foxconn earnings or TSM earnings or sales report...which by the way is out late thursday west coast time...10ish? They had increases over the two months indicating 24% increase in sales year over year. Demand is high as usual but they are having a hard time meeting demand as usual ==> no bubble.

I'd spread it out amongst aristocrats, kings, those w/ a high CAGR (for its div), and some quality growth. For instance: VZ, MO, ABBV, ORI, XOM, COST, NVDA, ASML, TSM, and MSFT.

TSM is currently paying high premium compares to their Taiwanese counterpart.

Amzn PLTR TSM

TSM 唯一擁有高階製程產能的企業

Intended portfolio as below, will it be a gamble?
Pls feel free to give opinion. Cheers!
|MSFT |
|:-|
|GOOGL|
|TSM|
|AVGO / MRVL |
|AMAT / RMBS|
|LRCX|
|RKLB |
|ASTS|
|RDW|
|MU / DRAM |
|NBIS / IREN|
|SLS|

100%, that's the discount you're paid for. It's why TSM still trades below its AI peers despite outgrowing most of them, the Taiwan discount has narrowed since the days Buffett bought and dumped it over exactly this fear, but it's still in the multiple. You're getting paid to hold it.
And honestly, if China actually moves on Taiwan, there's no hiding in the rest of the market anyway. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, half the S&P's earnings run through TSMC fabs. SPY doesn't dodge that bullet, it just gets shot slower. It's systemic risk wearing a single-ticker costume.
Meanwhile they're de-risking it in real time. Arizona fabs are producing, Japan's running, Germany's building. Not fast enough to matter in an invasion scenario, but enough that the "one island" story gets weaker every year. I'll take a priced-in risk over an unpriced one.

AVGO & TSM

Basket approach
25% VOO
25% schd
10% O
10% EPR
10% TSM
10% JNJ
10% KO
Probably could do better but you get the idea.

Tae-won is very similar to Taiwan. Calls on TSM

Okay, here is an updated portfolio:
VOO 20%
QQQM 15%
AVMV 10%
AVUV 15%
VXUS 10%
AIS 5%
NASA 5%
ITA 5%
PICK 5%
XLE 5%
XBI 5%
https://etfdb.com/tool/portfolio-analyzer/?etfs%5Bxbi%5D=5&etfs%5Bxle%5D=5&etfs%5Bpick%5D=5&etfs%5Bita%5D=5&etfs%5Bnasa%5D=5&etfs%5Bais%5D=5&etfs%5Bvxus%5D=10&etfs%5Bavuv%5D=15&etfs%5Bavmv%5D=10&etfs%5Bqqqm%5D=15&etfs%5Bvoo%5D=20
The main differences to an index like the S&P500 is that you have reduced your top 10 weighting from around 35-40% to 15.72%. The top 20 in your portfolio is 23.64%. Lots of dispersed weightings. +35% in technology and tech as a service. The top holdings are still majorly mag7 stocks. This is not bad and in some ways good.
GE aerospace is a top 10 and your weighting in oil companies is huge. RKLB, TSM, SK Hynix are some non S&P500 stocks that stand out.
This is a very aggressive and complicated portfolio to dollar cost average into. While not top 10 heavy, still weighted heavily into volatile stocks.
The thematic etfs can go down or sideways for months or years. It can be very easy to stress about them. A broad market momentum etf like SPMO or FMTM could simplify your 30% etf hunting portion of your portfolio. It's up to you.

TSM, GOOG, MSFT
I'm willing to bet that at least 2 out of the 3 print on earnings day