TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

TSM is a great choice so is nvidia. Sometimes the best way to play a theme is the most obvious way. I bought Apple at 1T and everyone called me stupid. Now it’s 4.2 T.

that is why I am in ETFs and not TSM directly

TLDR bought AMD as a college kid in 2019, held and sold around $230 and $290. Decided to purchase a ton of TSM back in October as well as AVGO around 18 months ago. Decided to go balls deep on MU and SNDK a few weeks back.

Go for TSM if you believe it has some value

Between the three big semiconductor ETFs (SMH, SOXX, and PSI), PSI is exhibiting the most momentum - you can look at 1m, 3m, 6m, and 1Y benchmarks to see it is comparatively outperforming. SMH and SOXX have less holdings and are more large-cap oriented (which are already more saturated - e.g. NVIDIA, TSM, Broadcom, AMD, Intel, Micron), whereas PSI is more equally weighted and is benefitting from the small caps having more growth as investors are expanding their scope to capitalize on the AI boom.
That being said, semiconductors aside, DRAM (memory) and HYDR (hydrogen) are actually the ETFs exhibiting the most momentum (excluding any oil/shipping futures ETFs)
godspeed

With TSM, I've got concerns about whatever China might do. But also about the US using political pressure to force them to transfer some of their tech to Intel. They were pressured into making the $160 billion investment in the Arizona fab. Let's be real, some technology transfer of their cutting edge processes to Intel that is right next door is bound to happen.

Except we just don't know when. If you want to know if CapEX is decreasing look at TSM monthly reports, they are required by Taiwan law. TSM just realsed their May report, and it's record breaking.
The reality is this cycle is going last a lot longer than previous cycles have. NVDA is the one that started this in May, 2023, and 3 years later here we are with 0 slow-down.

The market is pretending that if China invades Taiwan only TSM is going to be affected. It's probably one of the silliest parts of the entire AI trade to be honest.

I am also puzzled by the reason why TSM is traded relatively cheaper than the others. Maybe the geopolitical risk?
If China really invades Taiwan, everything is going to be fucked up - so are the rest of the supply chain.

Spent the last month going through every layer of the AI infrastructure stack. Power, cooling, networking, optical, memory, foundry, packaging, equipment. Roughly 30 companies. I wanted to find value somewhere in the chain… I mostly failed.
Power and cooling names like Vertiv are trading at 70x trailing earnings. Optical networking companies like Coherent, Lumentum, and Ciena are up 200-400% in 12 months with gross margins that don’t justify the multiples. Fabrinet is a great business but runs on 12% gross margins at $700 a share. Amkor looked interesting at $30 but doubled to $70 in a few weeks with insiders dumping nearly a billion dollars of stock on the way up.
The only name I can build a real value case for is TSM. 20x forward earnings on 41% revenue growth, 46% net margins, 36% ROE, and a literal monopoly on advanced chip fabrication. The business would be cheap at 25x. At 20x it feels like a gift considering every dollar of AI capex flows through their foundries regardless of who wins the chip design war.
Am I missing something? Is there a layer of the stack that hasn’t been driven up yet? Anyone finding value here or has the market priced in the entire AI buildout already?

This guy sold his TSM stocks last year because he thinks China will invade Taiwan. He is not always right.

Thinking I’ll buy TSM

TSM

Last april, during mongo's "Tax issue" I had to sell most of my portfolio to pay the down payment of my apartment, which includes GOOG@180, INTC@25, and TSM@190. That was a disaster, and I guess that was the worst possible time you could sell all of your portfolio...

I wish I had your same degree of confidence in valuing companies that are A. Very cyclical and B. Have experienced a huge change in supply and demand. I have some long term holdings like TSM, because, well, doesn't matter who wins, I win :) Even though the semi industry is cyclical, memory is much more cyclical than it overall, and this current jump in price is due to a supply constraint of a commodity. How do you personally project that?

When did he sell TSM

Buffet paper handed TSM

TSM

Possible TSM already topped but yall ain’t wanna hear about that. That report wasn’t too hot

Maybe all the money piling into MU short term, but doesn’t mean TSM won’t also be a winner. Be careful maybe you can make some money short term but TSM is an excellent company critical to the current tech uptrend and it will continue to go up in short order.