TSM Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Position: 7,900 total shares
Look, I know calling nvda "undervalued" right now sounds crazy to some of yall. The Mag 7 has been getting beat down, January was a historically shitty month driven by all those AI cash-burn fears, AI disruption fears, AI stole everyone’s lunch money fears, competitors are no longer using nvda chips fears, and fears about NVDA losing customers. Basically, all good news and bad news = nvda bad. This has caused NVDA to be frustratingly range-bound for the last 6 months while AMD, AVGO, and the next nvda slayer currently are up 30%+.
The underlying business more than justifies the current $182 price tag. The "nvda trade" has created a massive blind spot. Here is a breakdown of why NVDA is actually trading at a massive discount right now, and why the competition isn't as scary as the headlines make it seem.
1. NVDA significantly undervalued according to almost every analyst every modern/semi modern price/earnings/guidance formula.
If you value tech stocks using old-school, asset-heavy formulas, everything but land looks like a bubble. But if you drop the outdated metrics and use a modern Discounted Cash Flow method—which looks at the actual cash the business is going to print over the next five years and discounts it back to today's value—the narrative flips completely.
Right now, Wall Street is terrified that the big cloud providers are going to stop buying chips (even though they just said they would be buying more chips and are massively increasing capex!). But if we run a bull scenario where AI data center spending continues to scale to meet physical robotics and agentic AI demands, and nvda simply maintains its current margins as Blackwell rolls out, the DCF model spits out a fair intrinsic value of around $266 per share. The average Wallstreet price target is $257. Even the revised and somewhat outdated graham formula puts nvda in the $230 range.
Here is the kicker: nvda reports Q4 earnings next week on Feb 25. Wall Street expects around $1.52 per share for the quarter. If they just meet that expectation (and they usually beat it), their trailing 12-month earnings will jump from $4.06 to almost $4.70. If the stock price stays flat going into earnings, that report will instantly make the stock mathematically cheaper than it is today. You are paying about 25x forward earnings for a company growing revenue at 60%+. To hit that $266 DCF target, they don't need a miracle; they just need to execute the playbook they are already running.
Yes, I know nvda stock has dropped after beating expectations the last two quarters. But keep in mind, nvda's price going into those last two earnings was actually at or higher than it is today, while their revenue has grown by 40% over the last 6 months. There is no rule that says NVDA must go down after earnings, and the bar for to crush positive earnings to result in the stock pumping hasn’t been this low for a year.
2. The CUDA Moat
The biggest misconception is that nvda is just a hardware company, and that AMD will eventually just build a faster, cheaper chip and steal their lunch, that ignores CUDA.
CUDA is NVDA's proprietary software platform. For almost 20 years, developers have been writing AI code on CUDA, and it only works on nvda chips. If a massive cloud provider wants to switch to AMD, they can't just swap the hardware. They have to rewrite years of software and retrain their engineers. The switching costs are practically insurmountable. Plus, nvda doesn't just sell individual GPUs anymore. They sell the whole "AI factory." They bundle the chips with their own proprietary networking cables, CPUs, and liquid-cooled server racks. They are locking customers into their entire ecosystem.
3. ASICs threat is real but overblown
What about the hyperscalers? MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META are all designing their own custom ASICs to avoid paying NVDA's crazy 75% gross margins. This is a real threat, but it has a massive blind spot: rigidity. An ASIC is hard-coded to do one specific thing incredibly well. But AI architectures change constantly. If you spend two years and $500M designing an ASIC, and the AI industry suddenly pivots to a new type of model, your custom chip is a paperweight. nvda’s GPUs are general-purpose and programmable. Developers can tweak them overnight to run new models.
And just to hedge their bets, nvda recently spun up a secret Custom Silicon unit. If AMZN or GOOGL absolutely demands a custom chip, NVDA is stepping in to design it for them so that money doesn't walk out the door to AVGO or MRVL.
4. They own the VIP line at TSM
As of early 2026, nvda officially dethroned AAPL as TSM's biggest customer. Getting chips built at TSM isn't a "first come, first served" deal. You have to write massive upfront checks to reserve factory space years in advance. nvda's real bottleneck hasn't been the silicon; it's the complex advanced packaging required to put AI chips together. NVDA is literally co-investing billions with TSM to build out that specific packaging equipment. Because they have the deepest pockets, they get to cut the line.
My projection:
Do I know nvda will pump to $200 next week and $225 post earnings? No, I don’t have a crystal ball. But NVDA is severely undervalued and can only be artificially kept down for so long before the next leg up. If I had to guess I would say nvda breaks the $193-$195 wall post earnings, before legging up north of $200.