TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

10/14 $1030c $MU. Got fleeced by $TSM

Fair. That’s the bet. Macro can suck, TSM can still print. I’m holding the shares and betting earnings finally wakes the stock up.

TSM isn’t going to move while AI trade stalls. Much better to accumulate shares. They’re an excellent company but macro sucks.

Ain't the elon corps betting big on TSM/Intel making them tons of memory/storage in terafab? Shouldn't they also be dumping if memory is dumping, since if the concern is oversupply driving down costs then the potential gain from terafab is lower?

# Today is Monday, the 12th of October ## Upcoming events for Monday, October 12th - Stock splits: - DFLI @ **1:8** - MDCX @ **1:50** - NIVF @ **1:4** - NXGL @ **1:20** - POAS @ **1:15** - ZBAO @ **1:50** - Expected earnings: MSS, NCPL, RMCF ## Upcoming events for Tuesday, October 13th - Stock splits: - FMFC @ **1:40** - Expected earnings: ACI, ARTW, AZZ, BMRA, C, DPZ, FBK, FNGR, GS, JNJ, JPM, UNH, UNTY, WFC - Ex-div: CHAD, ESLT, OZK, SATA, TBLD - Economic events and announcements: - IMF Meetings ## Upcoming events for Wednesday, October 14th - Expected earnings: ASML, BAC, BLK, EDUC, EQBK, FAST, HOMB, MS, NXTT, PGR, SOTK, STT - Ex-div: CCD, CGO, CHAD, CHI, CHW, CHY, CPZ, CSQ, IDCC, MU, SATA - Economic events and announcements: - 3-Month Bill Auction (previous: 4.050%) - 6-Month Bill Auction (previous: 4.165%) - ADP Employment Change Weekly (previous: 23.80K) - Existing Home Sales (consensus: 3.97M, previous: 3.98M) - Existing Home Sales (previous: -2.0%) - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks - Fed Collins Speaks - Fed Waller Speaks - Federal Budget Balance (previous: -167.0B) - IMF Meetings - NFIB Small Business Optimism (previous: 98.7) - OPEC Monthly Report - Redbook (previous: 8.6%) ## Upcoming events for Thursday, October 15th - Expected earnings: AA, ALOY, BNY, BSVN, CMC, CMMB, CNS, CTW, CWBC, ERIC, FHN, IBKR, INDB, INFY, JBHT, MAN, MRSH, PLD, PNC, PULM, SCHW, SFNC, TSM, USB, WABC, WAFD, WIT - Ex-div: BCIC, BELFA, BELFB, BPOPM, CAC, CHAD, CHCO, CMTV, CSWC, DHCNI, GAING, GAINI, GAINZ, NWFL, OCCI, OCCIM, OCCIN, OXSQG, OXSQH, PECO, REGCO, REGCP, SATA, STRC, VSEC - Economic events and announcements: - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (previous: -2.090M) - Beige Book - CPI (consensus: 0.6%, previous: 0.4%) - CPI (consensus: 3.6%, previous: 3.4%) - CPI Index, n.s.a. (previous: 334.98) - CPI Index, s.a (previous: 334.13) - CPI, n.s.a (previous: 0.32%) - Cleveland CPI (previous: 0.2%) - Core CPI (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.3%) - Core CPI (consensus: 2.5%, previous: 2.4%) - Core CPI Index (previous: 337.77) - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks - IEA Monthly Report - IMF Meetings - MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 7.49%) - MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: -4.2%) - MBA Purchase Index (previous: 145.1) - Mortgage Market Index (previous: 204.7) - Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 515.8) - Real Earnings (previous: 0.2%) - Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (previous: 50.45) - US Leading Index (previous: -0.1%) ^^^^2026-10-12

Your LMT experience is the useful lesson here. 20% in one stock means one bad stretch drags the whole portfolio, which is exactly what you’re seeing. A simple rule a lot of people use: cap any single stock at 5-10% of the portfolio and keep the index as the core. If you want TSM, make it a small one-time buy under that cap instead of adding it to your weekly buys. Let the weekly money keep going to CSPX. Also, “it’s been low for a few days” isn’t much of a signal on its own. If you buy, decide now what would make you sell (the thesis breaks, or it grows past your cap) so a dip doesn’t turn into another LMT.

TSM for sure. AI capex is still booming, while bank margins are facing rate pressures.

TSM. Only concern is "priced for perfection." Beats might not be enough anymore — we saw that with Samsung. But TSM's the one name I'd actually hold through it.

Earnings week looks packed, especially with JPM, BAC, and TSM reporting-definitely worth watching how their results shape broader market sentiment.

JPM, BAC and TSM are the top picks this week. Where are you placing your bets?

ASML > TSM tho, no?

Too much retail and dinguses like leopold. It's a completely toxic sector to hold. Just switch to TSM.

Anybody YOLOing on TSM before earnings?

TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Current Price: $453.31 - Current Market Cap: $2.35T - Bull Target (12–18m): $600–$650 - Bear Target: $350–$380 - Upside: +32% to +43% - Downside: -16% to -23% - Reward-to-Risk: ~2:1 - Success Probability: 70% (estimated) - Expected ROI: +20% (estimated) - Return per 1% Downside: ~0.9% - Forward P/E: ~20.1 - Dividend Yield: ~0.7% - 1-Year Return: +50.44% 🟢 - 5-Year Return: +346.26% 🟢 - Profitability: Highly Profitable 🟢 - Revenue Growth: +50% YoY (Q3 2026) 🟢 - Net Income Growth: +77.4% YoY (Q2 2026) 🟢 - Free Cash Flow: Positive 🟢 - Price Trend: Strong long-term uptrend 🟢 - Bull-Case Market Cap: $3.11T–$3.37T - Comparable Companies: Samsung Electronics, Intel, GlobalFoundries - Risk: Moderate-High - Conviction: 8/10 - Grade: A- TSMC dominates advanced semiconductor manufacturing, producing chips for NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom. I see exceptional long-term potential from AI infrastructure demand, strong profitability, and accelerating revenue growth. However, Taiwan geopolitical risks and a $2.35T valuation warrant disciplined entry timing, especially with earnings approaching October 15.

TSM

TSM

Personally prefer SMH due to heavy exposure to NVDA and TSM, which my core holding (SPMO) lacks

Thoughts on TSM?

I have small positions in AAOI, ALAB, CBRS, MU, MRVL, AVGO, LITE, COHR, CRDO, TSM, NBIS … because the truth is I don’t know which one of them will win out. (Plus my NVDA from 2020 buy at $10). So I just buy a small basket of them and create my own little etf.

Have 30 shares of TSM at $450, and 15 shares of ASML at $1780. I’m hoping for a 5-10% rise into earnings.

I am trying to squeeze the last bit of juice for the next 1-2 years that’s why I am still fully in the AI trade. Everyone has a different investment philosophy and risk appetite so if you want to be on the sideline that’s perfectly fine. Or if someone believes the party will never end, sure that’s fine too. Jefferies Chris Wood wrote a piece yesterday you might want to take a look. I think there is some juice left because I don’t believe NVDA’s $240 today is the top and down hill from here. I would love to see NVDA hit $275 that would give my wife 100X but $400 would be a question mark for me. There are PT for TSM at $600 but I won’t think about $600, maybe I’ll get out by $500 but I definitely don’t think $450 is the highest we will see for the next 2 years. Same with AVGO…Will we see $700 as the street high, I don’t know, but I think it should go back up to the $400s. LITE ceo yesterday said they are sold out to 2029. MU has contracts to 2030. Most ppl don’t understand that these contracts can be cancelled anytime. Analysts Gene Munster and Dan Niles say this is a bubble but doesn’t mean bubble can’t get bigger before it bursts. So I am cautious. I do worry that TSMC is building so many fabs now and these are super capital intensive. And if, or when, the party slows down or closes the fabs will be “dark fab” like 25 years ago “dark fiber”. Good talking with you and hope the street treats you well.

Today is Taiwan birthday. The diesel deal is great for Putin. Wondering what deal he is making with Xi . . . MP, TSM, AMD, NVDA

I first bought into TSM in 2021 after the crazy crypto mining and even then I thought I was too late. Can’t believe it’s already 3x today

TSM just recently went ahead of EPD in value for me. Of course EPD pays a much higher more consistent dividend but TSM keeps their payout ratio in the upper 20s so when their business is booming you get a bigger dividend returned to you.

Just buy TSM and you have all the Taiwan you need lol