TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

I guess the reason that TSM spooks me is the possibility that its disruption would ripple through non-Taiwan stocks that are dependent on it for their manufacturing. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom…

NVDA, TSM, SPCX, GS, META, GOOG, HD, BEP, PFE, UNH, V

This I know because I have 250shares of TSM. I'm getting beaten up really bad today.

What's going on about TSM damn

Based on IV, this TSM drop this morning is much more severe than the drop in SNDK

Increased my $TSM position by 50% after that 3% selloff this morning. Stock seems too good right now at that price.

1. Find a stock that looks not totally insane and is at least in my budget.
2. Ask myself if this stock is undervalued or if it could survive a market correction (how much correlation to index etc)
3. Determine what the big institutions holding the position are
4. Hmmm and haw for a while undecided when to enter.
5. Enter finally I enter and then you hope it goes up.
6. Negative swings suck but DCA and not panick selling has been key to management of my losses. Example...iv seen my TSM shares dip bad due to the quake and selloff but it corrected and I exited with a tiny profit. Am currently out of semis....I think they have long term value but this AI bubble uncertainty has me hoping I can grab a bigger chunk of shares if the stock drops way down.

For Cisco it was gross margin. 66.3%, down 210bps, because hyperscaler AI hardware is way lower margin than the old enterprise and software mix. Stock was up 60% on the year going in on the AI story, then the print showed what that revenue actually does to the P&L.
That's kind of the rule though. The line that matters is whichever one could break the reason the stock is priced where it is, not the biggest number. Which is also why there's no checklist, it's different for every company. Your TSM number was already the method.

That is the trade-off with cap-weighted EM right now. If you want less TSM, you usually need to accept either an ex-Taiwan product, a more actively filtered fund, or a less representative EM basket overall. I would decide whether the real goal is broad EM exposure or reducing one specific geopolitical risk, because those can lead to different funds.

Cisco last Wednesday: revenue 17.25b against 16.8 expected, EPS beat, net income up 51%, record fiscal year. Guidance well above consensus, the next quarter revenue guided 18B, the stock fell 8% and still didn't recover though
So the print was good, the guidance was better and the market disagreed. Which means the thing that mattered wasn't in the headline numbers at all, and in left trying to work out what it was and whether it's relevant to why I'd own it.
I do this every quarter, read the release, the coverage, the takes and by the end I know a lot of things about the company but still can't say whether the reason for holding it is intact.
The thing that helps, when I actually do it is writing down beforehand what I'm watching, I had a number for TSM on overseas fab margins, when the print came , the question was just "did it hit that", two min rather than an evening.
The problem is that I only do this some of the time, and sometimes I'm not even looking at the things I should
Anyone actually knows what to look for consistently, it would save me so much time!

My (admittedly small) EM allocation is half EEMO, half AVEE.
EEMO is about 46% South Korea, 17% Taiwan, 10% China currently. Just looking at the top 25, I don't see TSM in there. However, SK Hynix and Samsung combined make up like 25-30% of it.

I track high conviction options flow to identify where larger traders are building directional exposure so I focus on how the trades are structured, the strikes, expiration dates and whether the positioning is supported by the recent flows.
**SNDK** \- Two bought calls alongside a sold put. Its seven-day flow remains fully bullish following the August 13 Investor Day and the massive increase on the 6th which preceded the rally.
https://preview.redd.it/65v2v5rd83kh1.png?width=1356&format=png&auto=webp&s=021f398306d51fb5f7c342c333a13e88f6293f00
**TSM -** Two bought calls, dominated by a near-ATM contract with approximately 44 DTE. This was the cleanest signal of the day and the broader score remains positive.
https://preview.redd.it/mrsfoakm83kh1.png?width=1333&format=png&auto=webp&s=f877d2d900d7882c3a34b88f394f1af26668777f
**APLD -** Bought call approximately 15% OTM with 18 DTE. More speculative because of the shorter expiry, but the seven-day positioning remains bullish.
https://preview.redd.it/zdqy5or083kh1.png?width=1343&format=png&auto=webp&s=e64647276386333cd863d6429e04e19af2c12205
**GLW** \- Bought call approximately 10% OTM with 39 DTE and the broader flow score remains positive.
https://preview.redd.it/wdu6y8g283kh1.png?width=1345&format=png&auto=webp&s=089725456e57ab4e9e6981622489c55d26832718
**CIFR -** Bought call approximately 30% OTM with 39 DTE. This is the most speculative setup on the list, although its seven-day flow remains fully bullish.
https://preview.redd.it/k4der8n583kh1.png?width=1335&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b8fbeb7e466de71fc9d4e6e3c4a7c574a2de51c

I’m interested in holding an emerging markets ETF but all the ones I’ve found have Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) as their no. 1 holding, usually comprising 12 to 16 percent of the fund. Now, TSM has delivered great returns. But I already have a lot of exposure to chip manufacturers who depend on TSM to manufacture their goods. In the event of a geopolitical meltdown in the area - like maybe a large, belligerent neighbor deciding to move on Taiwan - I don’t want to be even more f\*\*\*\*d. So - are there any emerging markets ETFs without so much TSM reliance?

What do you guys think, why can’t AMD just flood the market with cheap GPUs.
Oh, because TSM is the bottleneck? Okay why can’t samsung and intel flood the market with cheap wafers?
Oh because ASML is the bottleneck? Okay why can’t china flood ther market with cheap EUV machines?
Oh because…

(CRACK) (TSM), (ASML), (AVGO),

NVDA, TSM, CRWD, PANW, GOOG, MSFT, SPCX, TSLA, MU, GLW, ABBV, PFE, GS, JPM, GE, GEV, VRT, UNH, V, HD, SOFI, HOOD

Everything AI making money. Micron, sk Hynix, Dell, AMD, nvidia, Microsoft, Qualcomm, TSM, Oracle, crowdstrike, Amazon and others.

Buying more GOOGL, TSM, and ASML.

Long dated PUTS on Appl. They are not going to be able to ship shit because they can't build their phones without memory. TSM is sitting on shit loads of their chips and nothing to put them in.

18 Company write-ups worth a look, all from within the last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com](https://gilescapital.substack.com)
# Americas
**Long-term Investing** on [**Alphabet**](https://sanj2f3.substack.com/p/alphabet-googl-b95) (🇺🇸 GOOGL US - US$4.2tn) Whether AI disrupts search queries or not is subject to interpretation. What's clear: queries just hit an all-time high. Revenue up 24%, cloud up 82%. P/E at seventeen times.
**GHGInvest** on [**Berkshire Hathaway**](https://ghginvest.substack.com/p/why-berkshire-hathaways-45-billion) (🇺🇸 BRK.B US - US$1.1tn) Not a story about its largest holdings. At thirteen times trailing earnings, a cash pile exceeding $300 billion sits against a $1.1 trillion market cap. Greg Abel's first full year.
**Stock Opine** on [**Booking Holdings**](https://www.stockopine.com/p/booking-holdings-q226-resilient-execution) (🇺🇸 BKNG US - US$150bn) All the anxiety surrounding LLM-driven search disruption has overlooked Booking's loyalty programme: more than half of all room nights booked. Net income up 118%; 27% margins last quarter.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Uber Technologies**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/uber-a-terrific-business-but-a-terrible) (🇺🇸 UBER US - US$145bn) TOP PICK The market is pricing robotaxi disruption the operating data do not support. Two hundred and eight million monthly consumers; trips up 18%. Down 21% over twelve months.
**The Finance Corner** on [**Nike**](https://thefinancecorner.substack.com/p/nike-down-75-insiders-are-buying) (🇺🇸 NKE US - US$62bn) Nike optimised for scale and ceded shelf space to Hoka and On. Down 75% from peak; insiders now buying. The reversal is underway; revenue is still flat.
**P14 Capital** on [**Owlet**](https://p14capital.substack.com/p/quick-pitch-owlt-owlet-inc) (🇺🇸 OWLT US - US$159m) Revenue approaching $130 million and growing 30%, at a $159 million market cap. The pivot to health subscriptions is complete; approaching breakeven. The case grows stronger each quarter.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**Hated Moats** on [**Novo Nordisk**](https://hatedmoats.substack.com/p/novo-nordisk-q2-2026-review-better) (🇩🇰 NVO US - US$200bn) Down 42% over twelve months. Revenue falls as US GLP-1 prices reset in 2026. At eleven times trailing earnings, permanent impairment is the only thesis that justifies this price.
**The Oak Bloke** on [**Harbour Energy**](https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/hbr-speed-is-being-exceeded) (🇬🇧 HBR LN - £4.1bn) Current valuation makes no sense unless the windfall tax is permanent. Strip it out: $2.86 billion in first-half cash generation prices at close to 6x.
**Iggy on Investing** on [**Interlife General Insurance**](https://iggyoninvesting.substack.com/p/how-is-a-stock-that-compounded-at) (🇬🇷 INLIF GR - €124m) Compounded 22% per year for a decade. At 4.5 times earnings and 0.77 times book, an MSCI Greece upgrade is the near-term catalyst. Already cheap without one.
# Asia-Pacific
**TacticzHazel** on [**Taiwan Semiconductor**](https://tacticzhazel.substack.com/p/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing) (🇹🇼 TSM US - US$2.1tn) TSMC has durable competitive advantages in a world where every AI dollar eventually reaches the foundry that makes the chips. July revenue up 44.7%; seven-month figure up 37%.
**AI Proem** on [**Tencent**](https://aiproem.substack.com/p/part-1-tencents-return-ironman-yao) (🇨🇳 0700 HK - US$450bn) Revenue up 9%, profits up 12%, at fifteen times forward earnings. I imagine regulators are less confused about what Tencent is than the market has been since 2022.
**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Nintendo**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/the-numbers-dont-tell-the-full-story) (🇯🇵 7974 JP - ¥10.3tn) Operating profit up 150%, partly from tariff refunds. Switch 2 units fell 34% from launch; the case rests on an IP catalogue no competitor can touch and software margins.
**Cohong Lane** on [**Bank of China**](https://www.cohonglane.com/p/one-bank-two-prices) (🇨🇳 3988 HK - US$63bn) H-shares at 5.7 times earnings and 4.7% yield; A-shares command a structural premium. One bank, two prices. The investment case rests on that gap compressing.
**Capytal Management** on [**Huishang Bank**](https://capytalmanagement.substack.com/p/4x-pe-6-dividend-and-exposure-to) (🇨🇳 3698 HK - US$8.3bn) All the anxiety surrounding Chinese bank credit quality overlooked Huishang: bad loans at 0.98% and falling. Three and a half times earnings, 6% yield. Anhui is home to CXMT.
**JPARCVUE** on [**GS Yuasa**](https://jparcvue.substack.com/p/gs-yuasa-corporation-6674-more-than) (🇯🇵 6674 JP - ¥710bn) Japan's market leader in batteries for automotive and grid storage. At seventeen times earnings, every unit of domestic electrification capacity passes through this supply chain. Revenue growing alongside infrastructure demand.
**JPARCVUE** on [**Nakanishi**](https://jparcvue.substack.com/p/nakanishi-inc-7716-q2-earnings-fy2026) (🇯🇵 7716 JP - ¥180bn) Dominant global position in dental handpieces and surgical micro-motors used in every major market, regardless of brand. At ¥180 billion market cap, revenue grows as dental access expands globally.
**Angsana & Anderson** on [**CTOS Digital**](https://www.angsanaanderson.com/p/ctos-digital-7-fcf-yield-potential) (🇲🇾 CTOS MK - US$370m) Think of CTOS as the infrastructure layer beneath Malaysian credit: invisible from the outside, impossible to remove from within. Free cash flow yield 7%; PE exit pending.
**Acid Investments** on [**Global Tax Free and Geumhwa Plant**](https://acidinvestments.substack.com/p/some-korean-value-global-tax-free) (🇰🇷 204620 KS, 🇰🇷 036190 KS - US$325m, US$130m) TOP PICK The valuation makes no sense unless Korea's leading VAT refund operator stops earning 41.5% on invested capital. Domestic revenue up 30%; Japan joint venture launches November.