TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

P/E is 30.28 TSM has upcoming earnings next week and a sales report on the 10th of Oct. All the analysts on Google Finance say buy. Maybe someone can fabricate an analyst to say sell or hold....

I need suggestion on TSM ...if anyone did some digging and are playing that stock ..can you please DM me ?

can TSM please hit $500??

anyone playing TSM earnings ? or holding calls ? .....any opinions ?

How about TSM?

$TSM

"Could" depends entirely on how much risk you want to take. NVDA/MSFT/AAPL/TSM/V/MA would give you a good base to sell come CC on's. 500k margin should be able to stay quite conservative selling puts and pull in another $10k/mo.

$TSM getting out of my reach 👿

Account size- $1.4m with portfolio margin. Also have tax advantaged accounts but don't want to mention them as we don't want to incur any withdrawal penalties on this (we're late 30s, early 40s so a long way from being penalty free on those) Major expenses- mortgage $6.5k/month, followed by property tax $11k/year. No other debts. Taxes - all federal. No state dividend, no short term or long term cap gains. Holdings - 70% VOO, 30% NVDA/MSFT/AAPL/TSM/V/MA. Haven't bought individual stocks since \~2021, just been buying VOO. Experience- on and off for 10+ years mostly selling naked puts and occasionally cash secured (mostly the former as I mostly DCA'd into VOO so cash holdings was mostly in banks). \~45 DTE, 15-20 delta when IV% was 30-50% on these stocks, always avoiding earnings. Buy back at half profit or rarely more. But I was pretty busy so I'd typically only spend \~10 minutes during lunch on this and could go months long without even logging into the brokerage. I don't have enough to quit entirely and live off dividends (I guess I could in a lower COL part of the country, but we're in upper medium COL in a west coast, near the ocean part of the country) but this is where my question **on how much could I realistically make on selling options given the above info?**

A strong DXY/USD puts pressure on international stocks and a weaker DXY lifts international (ex-US) stocks. The AI cap ex data center build out is leading to ex US outperforming US indices. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are spending their entire 2026 FCF plus additional debt on AI data center cap ex. A majority of that money is going to Samsung, SK hynix, ASML, TSM, etc. As long as the AI data center cap ex infrastructure build out continues, $VXUS (ex-US) will continue to outperform $VTI (US) and $VPL, $EWY, $EWJ, and $EWT will outperform $VXUS. You are simply following the flow of money.

I just calls TSM. Now inverse me or whatever

TSM fuken LEGIT

new ath for TSM

TSM climbing towards earnings, such a nice buy earlier this month at 420

Wish I held those $TSM calls.

TSM absolutely pumping, new ath in pre market lmao

Feels like this sub has plenty of gold and TSM

NVDA and TSM want to break out

I take assignment for naked CSPs, i never do naked calls. Calls only on positions I've been holding for a while an am comfortable exiting. For CSPs I feel that its easier to just get assigned, and start selling CCs. This has been a great strategy on GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, WDC, TSM. These companies are not going away, but they can stay in a range for quite a while and I will collect premium above my cost basis for as long as it takes. The vixx has been low recently so options selling hasn't been great, but I think we will pick up again as we head towards end of year rebalancing, elections, war impacts etc, lots to look forward to until the end of the year.

Jensen and TSM have a very personal relationship! Tsmc will always give preference to jensen!

**Friday's closes:** SPX **7,722.72 (+0.73%)** — \~1.2% below the Aug high (7,816.70). QQQ **749.58 (+1.02%)** — broke the June high (747.05), new chart-range high. 2Y **4.839%** / 5Y **5.055%** / 10Y **5.277%** / 30Y **5.630%**. MOVE **107.29** (−0.78%) — my key level is **125** (+16.5% away). Oct FOMC pricing: 83% unchanged / 18% hike (was \~50/50 days earlier). **The macro: NFP +29K vs +90K expected (prior +133K), unemployment 4.2%.** October hike odds collapsed to 18%. But the "weak economy" read fails on the rest of the tape: Q2 GDP finalized **2.2%** (exp 1.5%), Aug personal spending **+0.9%** (vs income +0.2% — a 0.7pp gap that means savings drawdown, watch it), ISM manufacturing **54.5**. Weak jobs + resilient demand = the Fed is boxed in. Note the bond market's response: every tenor dipped 10–14bp intraday on the print, then **fully recovered and closed higher** — weak payrolls brought no bond buying. The market fears inflation/supply risk more than soft labor data. 2Y at 4.839% sits \~84bp above the Fed funds ceiling — bonds are pricing more hawkish than prediction markets. **Global stickiness:** France CPI 3.0%, Italy 4.2%, Germany 3.3%, euro area 3.8% — ALL above expectations. RBA hiked to 4.6%. This external inflation pressure caps Fed dovishness and keeps **December 8–9** live even with October dead. Other data: JOLTs 7.079M (cooling), China PMI back above 50 (50.1), core PCE 0.2% m/m (tame). **Technicals — the divergence trade:** QQQ new high vs SPX chop (ADX **9.06** = no trend; +DI/−DI only 2.6 apart). Money flow *split*: QQQ CMF **+0.117** vs SPX **−0.050**. This is an AI/semiconductor-concentrated rally with weak breadth — rate-sensitive by construction. SPX levels: R 7,751/7,780/7,816.70, PP 7,725.97, S 7,697/7,672/7,657 (MA50)/7,616/7,508. QQQ levels: R 753.57/757.56/760, PP 750.55, S 746.56/743.54/742.16 (BB mid)/733.81/716.22. My scenarios (subjective): SPX bull 40% (reclaim 7,782 → 7,850–7,900; needs 10Y contained + MOVE fading) / range 35% (7,650–7,780) / bear 25% (lose 7,657 → 7,508; triggers: 10Y >5.342%, MOVE >110.52). QQQ bull 45% (hold 747 → 757–760 → 770) / range 30% / bear 25% (lose 742 → 716). **MU — the AI memory check:** revenue **$54.229B** (+5.3% vs consensus), EPS **$33.42** (+5.0%), guide **$61.5B**; core datacenter **+56% QoQ / +1,042% YoY** at 85% margins; gross margin 87.0%; FY26 revenue $133.19B (3.6×); op cash flow $89.68B. The catch: beat margin **narrowed from \~+18% to +5%** — consensus caught up. The stock now needs guidance *raises*, not beats. 87% gross margin is extreme — sensitive to supply response. **MOVE 125 — my framework:** 76.22 → 110.52 (+45%) in under two weeks while SPX sat at highs = stock/bond vol divergence that must resolve. Watch sequence: 110.52 → 120.33 (BB upper) → **125**. 125 is a **warning line, not a buy trigger** — it means raise alert and prepare to scale in. Real aggression waits for VIX 40–60, keeping 40–50% cash. **My book:** the **META jade lizard (with stock)** expired at $728.08 for **+$14,951/contract (+26.0%)** — the long 600 call reopened the upside, capping the short-call loss at $35 while the stock ran $152.58. Lesson: below 555 the structure bleeds 2× — preset exits next time. New: CCL 12/18 $25C u/1.79 · TSM 11/06 $460C u/21.39 (10/15 earnings inside) · MSTR 10/23 $162.5C u/7.25 (expires *before* est. 10/29 earnings — BTC/treasury bet, not earnings) · MDB 1/15/27 $370C u/38.85 · SNDK 10/09 $1800P **short** u/153.3 ($15,330 prem vs $180K notional — the tail risk) · $XX u/23.5 (needs SPX >10,000 by Jan 2030, \~8.2% annualized — lottery sizing). Whale alerts matched on TSM ($23M), MSTR ($3.4M), MDB ($3.2M), SNDK ($12.2M). Five of six lean bullish, all AI/tech. **Next week (Oct 5–9):** Mon — ISM services (prev 55.4, exp 55.7; prices sub-index is the inflation tell). Wed — **FOMC minutes** 11:00 PT (year-end-hike debate; dots: 12 of 18 see 4.1%, 4 see 4.4%, 2 see 3.9%; hawkish minutes = 2Y + MOVE up together). Fri — Michigan sentiment prelim (prev 48.1; watch inflation expectations) + SNDK $1800P expiry. **Desk take:** the hike died, but the bond market didn't get the memo — yields closed the week higher anyway. Respect the divergence: QQQ's new high is real but narrow, MOVE's spike is the bill that hasn't come due. Buy slowly. Scale in. Let time be on your side. \[NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DYOR!\] from Humble Trader | Gemini Trading https://preview.redd.it/75n311yti5th1.png?width=847&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab46b704ae8f2ccac87077981febbbdfbd2eca3d https://preview.redd.it/sg0ibnkzi5th1.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=7903c7c1434dce3bb02e6bd9909ebb8f93ac4ca0 https://preview.redd.it/b07zluf4j5th1.png?width=1775&format=png&auto=webp&s=218e2a728e5ed80a41b534f7207b9250b1d31d94 https://preview.redd.it/7ypelgj9j5th1.png?width=1730&format=png&auto=webp&s=020cf19796858875db1cfac1073f8ffd8c3911ec https://preview.redd.it/n9pkn7kej5th1.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=aca538ea62a57550fb34e2869962f4fcbbbbeb25 https://preview.redd.it/so0ahs0jj5th1.png?width=843&format=png&auto=webp&s=32de7b7c36c3e024a187968b318500f095af6b3e https://preview.redd.it/ugv3reqnj5th1.png?width=844&format=png&auto=webp&s=da6331b3e172712496587d8215bf9d5ff278659b https://preview.redd.it/9erjb52qj5th1.png?width=849&format=png&auto=webp&s=8964e16712f220879a1771ddef423592e6b5dcb0 https://preview.redd.it/eroqmqrsj5th1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=d888e2592386f0910f0ed83d8ca472de255453ba https://preview.redd.it/qbn690suj5th1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=30c67171e1ea83b10933c40b1961acedf551e39a https://preview.redd.it/365w0qywj5th1.png?width=3840&format=png&auto=webp&s=0050654708dab8d0d7a12988984980a576df0863 https://preview.redd.it/2bprhkcyj5th1.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=44490304dd0837742eaedea4010bc7b854c94f1b https://preview.redd.it/xevhbcf4k5th1.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=da995be9a66a85438185f6efeaee4591c08ccf1a https://preview.redd.it/625nlu86k5th1.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=35b38cab8f7d7dbb9f42aa7d66ad38493c809f2e https://preview.redd.it/2go00an7k5th1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0268d722022ffb1e04958bbcc7a0f2f4f99b62 https://preview.redd.it/flnzuxr8k5th1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8304397e5571049cfb8f4f274398132fc046f3ac https://preview.redd.it/2luixu8ak5th1.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=086ae85cb11c75045ebe1ebe0410b54cc3528733 https://preview.redd.it/qw01wltbk5th1.png?width=880&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fce8d4080dc241160aa3c0f88e918d57c8b26f2

**Friday's closes:** SPX **7,722.72 (+0.73%)** — \~1.2% below the Aug high (7,816.70). QQQ **749.58 (+1.02%)** — broke the June high (747.05), new chart-range high. 2Y **4.839%** / 5Y **5.055%** / 10Y **5.277%** / 30Y **5.630%**. MOVE **107.29** (−0.78%) — my key level is **125** (+16.5% away). Oct FOMC pricing: 83% unchanged / 18% hike (was \~50/50 days earlier). **The macro: NFP +29K vs +90K expected (prior +133K), unemployment 4.2%.** October hike odds collapsed to 18%. But the "weak economy" read fails on the rest of the tape: Q2 GDP finalized **2.2%** (exp 1.5%), Aug personal spending **+0.9%** (vs income +0.2% — a 0.7pp gap that means savings drawdown, watch it), ISM manufacturing **54.5**. Weak jobs + resilient demand = the Fed is boxed in. Note the bond market's response: every tenor dipped 10–14bp intraday on the print, then **fully recovered and closed higher** — weak payrolls brought no bond buying. The market fears inflation/supply risk more than soft labor data. 2Y at 4.839% sits \~84bp above the Fed funds ceiling — bonds are pricing more hawkish than prediction markets. **Global stickiness:** France CPI 3.0%, Italy 4.2%, Germany 3.3%, euro area 3.8% — ALL above expectations. RBA hiked to 4.6%. This external inflation pressure caps Fed dovishness and keeps **December 8–9** live even with October dead. Other data: JOLTs 7.079M (cooling), China PMI back above 50 (50.1), core PCE 0.2% m/m (tame). **Technicals — the divergence trade:** QQQ new high vs SPX chop (ADX **9.06** = no trend; +DI/−DI only 2.6 apart). Money flow *split*: QQQ CMF **+0.117** vs SPX **−0.050**. This is an AI/semiconductor-concentrated rally with weak breadth — rate-sensitive by construction. SPX levels: R 7,751/7,780/7,816.70, PP 7,725.97, S 7,697/7,672/7,657 (MA50)/7,616/7,508. QQQ levels: R 753.57/757.56/760, PP 750.55, S 746.56/743.54/742.16 (BB mid)/733.81/716.22. My scenarios (subjective): SPX bull 40% (reclaim 7,782 → 7,850–7,900; needs 10Y contained + MOVE fading) / range 35% (7,650–7,780) / bear 25% (lose 7,657 → 7,508; triggers: 10Y >5.342%, MOVE >110.52). QQQ bull 45% (hold 747 → 757–760 → 770) / range 30% / bear 25% (lose 742 → 716). **MU — the AI memory check:** revenue **$54.229B** (+5.3% vs consensus), EPS **$33.42** (+5.0%), guide **$61.5B**; core datacenter **+56% QoQ / +1,042% YoY** at 85% margins; gross margin 87.0%; FY26 revenue $133.19B (3.6×); op cash flow $89.68B. The catch: beat margin **narrowed from \~+18% to +5%** — consensus caught up. The stock now needs guidance *raises*, not beats. 87% gross margin is extreme — sensitive to supply response. **MOVE 125 — my framework:** 76.22 → 110.52 (+45%) in under two weeks while SPX sat at highs = stock/bond vol divergence that must resolve. Watch sequence: 110.52 → 120.33 (BB upper) → **125**. 125 is a **warning line, not a buy trigger** — it means raise alert and prepare to scale in. Real aggression waits for VIX 40–60, keeping 40–50% cash. **My book:** the **META jade lizard (with stock)** expired at $728.08 for **+$14,951/contract (+26.0%)** — the long 600 call reopened the upside, capping the short-call loss at $35 while the stock ran $152.58. Lesson: below 555 the structure bleeds 2× — preset exits next time. New: CCL 12/18 $25C /1.79 · TSM 11/06 $460C 21.39 (10/15 earnings inside) · MSTR 10/23 $162.5C /7.25 (expires before est. 10/29 earnings — BTC/treasury bet, not earnings) · MDB 1/15/27 $370C /38.85 · SNDK 10/09 $1800P short /153.3 ($15,330 prem vs $180K notional — the tail risk) · $XX /23.5 (needs SPX >10,000 by Jan 2030, \~8.2% annualized — lottery sizing). Whale alerts matched on TSM ($23M), MSTR ($3.4M), MDB ($3.2M), SNDK ($12.2M). Five of six lean bullish, all AI/tech. **Next week (Oct 5–9):** Mon — ISM services (prev 55.4, exp 55.7; prices sub-index is the inflation tell). Wed — **FOMC minutes** 11:00 PT (year-end-hike debate; dots: 12 of 18 see 4.1%, 4 see 4.4%, 2 see 3.9%; hawkish minutes = 2Y + MOVE up together). Fri — Michigan sentiment prelim (prev 48.1; watch inflation expectations) + SNDK $1800P expiry. **Desk take:** the hike died, but the bond market didn't get the memo — yields closed the week higher anyway. Respect the divergence: QQQ's new high is real but narrow, MOVE's spike is the bill that hasn't come due. Buy slowly. Scale in. Let time be on your side. \[NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DYOR!\] from Humble Trader | Gemini Trading https://preview.redd.it/75n311yti5th1.png?width=847&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab46b704ae8f2ccac87077981febbbdfbd2eca3d https://preview.redd.it/sg0ibnkzi5th1.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=7903c7c1434dce3bb02e6bd9909ebb8f93ac4ca0 https://preview.redd.it/b07zluf4j5th1.png?width=1775&format=png&auto=webp&s=218e2a728e5ed80a41b534f7207b9250b1d31d94 https://preview.redd.it/7ypelgj9j5th1.png?width=1730&format=png&auto=webp&s=020cf19796858875db1cfac1073f8ffd8c3911ec https://preview.redd.it/n9pkn7kej5th1.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=aca538ea62a57550fb34e2869962f4fcbbbbeb25 https://preview.redd.it/so0ahs0jj5th1.png?width=843&format=png&auto=webp&s=32de7b7c36c3e024a187968b318500f095af6b3e https://preview.redd.it/ugv3reqnj5th1.png?width=844&format=png&auto=webp&s=da6331b3e172712496587d8215bf9d5ff278659b https://preview.redd.it/9erjb52qj5th1.png?width=849&format=png&auto=webp&s=8964e16712f220879a1771ddef423592e6b5dcb0 https://preview.redd.it/eroqmqrsj5th1.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=d888e2592386f0910f0ed83d8ca472de255453ba https://preview.redd.it/qbn690suj5th1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=30c67171e1ea83b10933c40b1961acedf551e39a https://preview.redd.it/365w0qywj5th1.png?width=3840&format=png&auto=webp&s=0050654708dab8d0d7a12988984980a576df0863 https://preview.redd.it/2bprhkcyj5th1.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=44490304dd0837742eaedea4010bc7b854c94f1b https://preview.redd.it/xevhbcf4k5th1.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=da995be9a66a85438185f6efeaee4591c08ccf1a https://preview.redd.it/625nlu86k5th1.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=35b38cab8f7d7dbb9f42aa7d66ad38493c809f2e https://preview.redd.it/2go00an7k5th1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0268d722022ffb1e04958bbcc7a0f2f4f99b62 https://preview.redd.it/flnzuxr8k5th1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8304397e5571049cfb8f4f274398132fc046f3ac https://preview.redd.it/2luixu8ak5th1.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=086ae85cb11c75045ebe1ebe0410b54cc3528733 https://preview.redd.it/qw01wltbk5th1.png?width=880&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fce8d4080dc241160aa3c0f88e918d57c8b26f2

Yeah I agree, but as an TSM shareholder, I do think it makes sense for TSMC to build fabs also outside Taiwan. The war over Taiwan strait is a real possibility and the area is also very prone to earth quakes.

Is this true? Has TSM confirmed?

**Aletheia on server CPU:** *2027E upside is supply constrained, 2028E to be seen. We expect limited upside to our 2027E for server CPU revenue/shipments of $40b/13.5m for AMD as it is supply constrained. The following year, 2028E, should be better as we expect TSM N2 and ASE’s FOCoS-Bridge output to grow by 50%/100%+ YoY, respectively. As such, we are modelling AMD’s server CPU revenue and shipments to still grow by 70%/30% YoY in 2028E, above the 60%-70% CAGR in 2025-2030E. AMD remains as the major beneficiary of agentic AI growth, especially for consumer-facing agents, which is mostly run on x86 CPUs.*