TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

I had 65 shares when it was in the $80s. Also had TSM, GOOG, and AMZN when they were all under $100. I'm convinced I don't like money.

And that is exactly why you shouldn't sell. You are diversified in other, tax friendly accounts. The taxable account is where you can have fun with some "play" money and as much as I love my 401k invested in VOO/VTI etc those funds do not hold any TSM, very little NBIS, and by playing individual stocks you don't always beat the market, but i have a handful that I have held for years that absolutely HAVE outperformed (NVDA, GOOG, TSM, funnily I have NBIS too but wayyyyyyy too early to call that one...) and if you aren't buying individual stocks with your excess "fun" money then the odds of ever outperforming are Zero. You paid for the ticket on theses positions, take the ride!

Buy GRAB and TSM. Buy TSM if you want an AI play. This will surely beat the index in the next few years. TSM is the bottleneck for all the AI chip stocks and anything related with chips. I'd say maybe add GRAB to your holding for diversification since I scooped 12000 shares at a 52 week low. The CEO bought 10 million shares near the 52 week low. I'd say these two stocks are no brainer. GRAB is the king of SEA countries involved in ride sharing business. They are also in banking, asset management and financing. This should easily beat the index in the next few years to come.😎

Wondering the same thing - took TSM 445c earlier today and it's going nicely

TSM - Think we are setup for a solid run here

open your eyes anusdestroyer. AMD hovering around 0. TSM +0.56, NVDA +0.8, AVGO +0.15, QCOM +1.15. It’s what we call a loser on the day dumbass

IMO, you have to much concentration in AI. I would sell either TSM or NVDA - Don't really need both.

I have 28% in my passive investment account and 103% in my trading account. I'd say buy great stocks at reasonable prices. I just bought GRAB last week on Friday, and the stock is up 20% in 3 days. I bought TSM on the same day, and it's up 6-7% as well. I think buying stocks like these for the long term, and once they double or triple after a few years, is the key to growth and beating the market.

I started seriously trading earning events this year. Took some time to understand them.
Volatility usually (slowly/rapidly) rises before an event, e.g., earnings. This has been measured and researched heavily (sources below). Post event IV drops, selling just before the event and capturing this IV (crush) can be a source of profit.
My options journey started in 2018, but I made my first serious earnings trade this year in April (out of all the years) on MSFT.
My steps involved getting the right observations, analysis, setting up the trade, placing it, risk analysis, and managing the trade +1 and +2 days after earnings.
# The MSFT Trade on Apr 2026
MSFT earning date: **29th April 2026**, after market close (AMC)
**Thesis**: If earnings is on day T, then IV is elevated than normal within T-5 and T-1. The volatility is a combination of normal volatility and the event vol. Due to an unknown outcome, the option prices are / could be overpriced. The question is by how much and is it overblown? Will the IV crush make sense?
**Setup**: Sell a strangle on MSFT on day T-X, for the "nearest" contract expiring on T+X (usually Friday). Many sources analyze selling straddle, but I am still not comfortable going ATM for large movers in these times!
**Day of trade**: I placed the trade on 23rd April, 5 days before 29 Apr day of Earning. No specific reason for picking T-5 days for MSFT.
# The day of 23 Apr
1st May Friday contracts, **On the day IV 39%**
1 Short Call at 425. Credit: 11.52
1 Short Put at 415. Credit: 11.68
**Total Credit: $ 2,320**
Interesting, short put was tested on the same day, but I kept the trade open.
https://preview.redd.it/3u7zatmtf3rh1.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=769af3e3d202c048cb6c982beaa92bbdee148531
# On 30th morning
The stock touched both strikes a few times within T-5 to T but held it through to see what happens.
29th Apr Earnings announcement was positive, with a 5.13% surprise. Doesn't matter. It opened 3.3% lower than previous close at 410! Short put ITM by $5!
https://preview.redd.it/9l0hng3xf3rh1.png?width=789&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fd45c2bf148a6f8e537e4770a7f10f263c5e34e
**What did my position look like?**
1st May Friday, **ATM IV 27%**
1 Short Call at 425. Credit: 0.27
1 Short Put at 415. Credit: 11.66 (IV crush + Put breach = nearly the same price)
Profit on Close: 2320 - 1195 = **$ 1,127**
# Learning from MSFT and future research vectors
The put could have easily gone by another -3%, and made no money. If that had happened, I would have closed the trade at breakeven and just purchased MSFT!
Waiting a day after seems to be something I want to research. T+1 and T+2 till the contract expiry has recoveries, but the problem is rising Gamma as another drastic change can completely kill the position, e.g., MSFT earnings on 29th Jul!
Historic Realized Move vs Historic IV for the Friday contract from T-15 onwards is something I am looking into for each event. Market dynamics, regimes, hype etc. has a huge impact on earnings. Some platforms give that answer, but its not in a way I can use it easily in my trade setup.
Of course it doesn't work all the time (again, see MSFT Jul and AMD May earnings). This is why analysis, setup and risk management are needed for the trades. I had to move between three different platforms to get the setup.
Decided to make something for myself which is connected to IBKR for recent, and live data. Sharing the work in progress with the community.
# Plan for October
I've started building a simple view for myself to track key dates, and historic moves. I am adding in older implied moves, however knowing that past variance and vol data is usually useless - it still gives an idea on how do certain tickers and industries behave on earnings.
My personal criteria (130 companies):
* 100B+ Market Cap.
* No ADR tickers. But kept exceptions like ASML, BABA and TSM.
* Removed Class C shares like GOOG
* Removed international listing which have local listings, due to low volume
* Removed some TSX Canadian listings due to volume
* Semi-annual reporting companies
* Some tickers with low historic moves removed like foreign oil, pharma, and insurance.
The list will be auto-updated every quarter as companies move in and out of the 100B mark, for example ADBE recently dipped to 98B.
Sharing the dates and historic moves with the community for October. Work in progress to include historic implied move for the Friday contract on the earnings week for each ticker.
[WIP](https://preview.redd.it/18xxs6mdh3rh1.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=90f310d91e9d32df18d15b27ce9f0150df3fcf9b)
# Selected resources, some are math heavy
[Video: Understanding Realized and Implied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmAE9ZhQ0jU)
[Risk Premiums and Non-Diversifiable Earnings Announcement Risk](https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Shared%20Documents/events/14/Barth.Risk_Premiums_and_Non-Diversifiable_Earnings.pdf)
[Earnings announcements and equity options](https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/pubfiles/6051/DJ_2006.pdf)
[Trading Volatility by Colin Bennett](https://www.trading-volatility.com/Trading-Volatility.pdf)

Buy GRAB and TSM. The CEO of Grab just purchased 10 million shares of Grab yesterday in his filings which means Grab is extremely undervalued at these price levels. Whereas, TSM is the pick and shovel that will win no matter who wins the AI race. Thank me later!😎

Buy TSM and GRAB 📈💰💰😎

17% YTD sold the majority of my gains in GOOG to put it into META, NOW and MSFT. I have a decent exposure to AI with ASML and TSM, however my performance is dragging because of some of the "quality compounders" like SPGI, MCO, V and BN that have not performed so well this year. All in all I am happy.

Well, I have been investing in the market for the last 23 yrs. I have been aggressive the last 3 yrs. I got in early on tech giants like Amd, Alab, Anet, Arm, Avgo, Apld, NVDA, Mrvl, MU, Docn, Intc, Pltr, Smci, Spcx, Rklb, TSM, STX, VRT, GLW. Today, I crossed over 1.1 million and decided to sell everything but 200 shares of Nvda. The rest is sitting in SGOV earning me 3,100 monthly in divvys until my retirement in 2 yrs. It has been one hell of a roller coaster ride with all the big ups/ downs. I am going to leave my other brokerage portfolio to ride with 148k in it. Good luck to all navigating thru the Wall Street casino! Don’t fall in love with any particular stock, take profits, re invest in something wks with upside potential. Good luck all, I’m just chilling from here to retirement!

That would send TSM up 100%

That's a significant reason why I'm hesitant to buy. I don't feel like I don't have the expertise to evaluate if they will have a moat or if they will be on a perpetual cycle of having to sink a ton of money into training. I prefer my investments in ASML/TSM where if AI is very effective in boosting productivity, it's hard to imagine they won't outperform the market. There are some scenarios for sure, but it's less questionable.

Portfolio: $11,060.42
Today: up $296.64 (up 2.76%). Best day of the three so far. 26 agents live.
Business As Usual, $2,624.80, up $87.94 (up 3.47%), biggest single contributor. This is the one that holds the S&P 500 and only flips into a 3x leveraged S&P 500 fund when NY weather reads normal for the season, read off Kalshi temperature markets. It sold SPY and bought UPRO this morning, so it caught almost all of today's rally levered.
FAANG+ Momentum, $2,545.59, up $120.79 (up 4.98%), the single biggest dollar gain in the book. It rotated out of AMZN and GOOGL into META and NVDA on the daily momentum rerank, then rode the move.
The Silicon Overdrive, $103.50, up $8.94 (up 9.45%), best percent day. Small experimental sleeve targeting 2x the daily return of a US semiconductor index, so a strong chip day shows up loud here.
AI Picks & Shovels, $1,059.71, up $32.09 (up 3.12%). Weekly reweight landed again, sold ANET and DELL, added AMD, more NVDA, more SMCI, and a new TSM position.
Founder Mode, $260.89, up $11.54 (up 4.63%). Sold COIN, HOOD, META, and RKLB, bought CRM and DASH. Rebalances weekly across fifteen founder led companies.
Funny one: NFL Fantasy Agent, down $1.15 (down 6.02%) on an $18 position. It bought yes contracts on Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb hitting reception and yardage thresholds Sunday. Deebo screwing over my fantasy team and Kalshi.
Pelosi Tracker, High Profile Congress, and CT Scanner all did their usual rotations off fresh disclosures and trial data, small moves either way, nothing dramatic.
Two up days and one neutral day in, net solidly green, still tells you nothing about day 100. Posting every day either way.

There's something very interesting brewing in the AI race.

You may have noticed a recent wave of "AI doomer-ism" hitting the main stream media; calls for slowdown, needs for safety, an "apocalyptic threat" being imminent.

At the same time, we have emergent capabilities; millennium problems being solved, the hugging face hack, new spatial robotics, biological breakthroughs (Alzheimer's progress!).

So, what's changed recently?

The first thing to understand is that our current AI has two components. The model, and the harness.

The model is the brain - think of it kind of like "IQ" - a measure of your potential intelligence. The model is the general infrastructure for thought, but hasn't actually learned anything. This translates to memory and compute (hardware).

The harness is the school. It's everything you put around the brain to make it useful. For us it's flashcards, teachers, lived experiences. For computers that's the training iterations they do.

For the past year+ we've seen frontier companies focusing on the harness. We essentially gave an average brain an extremely strict study routine with the best teachers. It got better at passing tests, but it's "IQ" never got higher.

Well, that's changing now. Frontier models have switched back to expanding the model instead of the harness (as hardware supply is coming back online).
The frontier labs are ready to expand the hardware again, and I think todays big chip rally was your first sign of it (In case Cap-ex staying high wasn't your first clue).
Other than SOXX and general hardware, what are your plays for focusing on the inference side of the AI trade vs. the software side.
I've made good money timing the previous hardware top and diversifying into software companies setup to benefit (bought both MSFT and META bottom in spades (400k+).
I already have the bulk of my hardware positions in AMAT, CHPX, CHAT, ASML, TSM, etc. Those are all known. I took a smaller position in POET (I see them coming back in the momentum trade with inference in focus). I'd like some more smaller names that may not be on the obvious radar; please no NBIS or other parroted names.

Busy day! Market moved up and I took many (for me) off early. Closed 8 that were well over 50% profit and added 2 trades.
|TQQQ|5 Oct 23 32d 68 Put BTC|1.60 db|
|:-|:-|:-|
|NVDA|2 Oct 23 32d 210 Put BTC|2.49 db|
|TSM|2 Oct 23 32d 400 Put BTC|3.30 db|
|TSM|2 Oct 23 32d 400 Put BTC|3.30 db|
|DRAM|\-4 Oct 30 39d 52 Put STO|1.22 cr|
|AMD|2 Oct 23 32d 450 Put BTC|1.97 db|
|DRAM|\-1 Oct 30 39d 52 Put STO|1.22 cr|
|DRAM|2 Oct 16 25d 52 Put BTC|0.71 db|
|TQQQ|5 Oct 16 25d 76 Put BTC|3.50 db|
|SOXX|2 Oct 16 25d 560 Call BTC|6.40 cr|
||\-2 Oct 30 39d 560 Call STO||
|SPCX|1 Oct 16 25d 160 Put BTC|10.75 db|

Buy GRAB and TSM instead. ADBE will be a buy below $200 bucks. 🤔

If one doesn't wish to invest in the main producers of semiconductors or SSD's ($NVDA, $AVGO, $TSM, $SNDK, etc.), nor the hyperscalers ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $ORCL, etc.), then
investments into power suppliers and/or construction companies--- that are well-established and will be needed for data center buildouts--- could offer opportunities that aren't (yet) attracting much attention.
I am liking $VST and $MTZ, just to name a couple....
$FIX was in the stratosphere ('nosebleed seats'), but has now gotten back down to a much more reasonable level, as well.
GLTA