TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

I bought just couple shares of MRVL and VST today. Maybe will buy TSM. As for MU… many ppl say this is not a cyclical story anymore but it’s structural. I believe it’s still cyclical just that this cycle is longer and stronger. I have few shares of MU, I am hoping it will hit $1200-1500 next year but I def don’t believe it will reach $2500-3000 in this cycle. I’m retired and been in the market for 35 years and lived thru dot com bust. I think we have maybe 1-2 more years on this AI trade and any hint of slow down will drop the market but not like 2000. I think NVDA is a good buy here cuz they will always be the brain in AI (now getting into open models..). I got NVDA in 2020 at $10 and haven’t sold a share. I am still all in on the AI trade for now but prob will exit the party next year.

This and TSM are good buys today

This is exactly what I did with TSM. I sold covered calls for a while on shares I've owned forever, made some nice $'s, then it bounced up and they got called away (not quite sure but probably around $215 or so). I wanted them back as part of my portfolio on a dip so I sold puts around $175 which I got called on. For me and my target portfolio it was the perfect execution and a great example of the power of option trading.

I would skip the following because they either have too much debt or are too cyclical (i've invested in all of these before): VRT cylical - hard to predict future demand VST high debt NEE high debt CEG high debt ORCL high debt GEV is a better energy related play if you really want to invest in energy. Personally I stay away from TSM and invest in another AI stock (NBIS is my favorite AI stock) because theoretically the stock can go to 0 according to Claude if China were to invade Taiwan.

Skip ORCL. Reevaluate VRT, NEE, NXT. Consider adding Healthcare (LLY). Good entry prices on Google, AVGO, VST, TSM right now so I would jump the queue on these

First of all I had a chat with one of the Techs this morning and the eligibility notification was a tad early, The target live date is Monday 10/26. To get a better understanding go to CBOE's page Equity Options Extended Trading Hours FAQ. [https://ir.cboe.com/news/news-details/2026/Cboe-Launches-Extended-Trading-Sessions-for-Select-Single-Stock-and-ETF-Options/default.aspx](https://ir.cboe.com/news/news-details/2026/Cboe-Launches-Extended-Trading-Sessions-for-Select-Single-Stock-and-ETF-Options/default.aspx) Lots of good information there. The import part is the following stocks will be available - AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, BABA, BAC, F, GLD, GOOG, GOOGL, HOOD, INTC, IWM, META, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NFLX, NOK, NVDA, ORCL, PFE, PLTR, QQQ, SNDK, SPY, TSLA, TSM, XLF. Hint - copy and past the symbols into a new watch list... Times are 7:30 a.m. to 9:25 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. to 4:15 p.m What I don't know is if 0DTE will have the extend period. Spreads might wide. If you want a handy Spread watch for AT that allows you to set warning levels if the spread is to big and shows the "MID" point. You can manually set the underlying to you can keep have an idea of what the option price relative to the underlying.  7:30 a.m. to 9:25 and [http://tos.mx/!XQvv9kmt](http://tos.mx/!XQvv9kmt) Happy trading.

NVDA has been frustrating for a lot of the longs. Seems like nothing can lift its stock. Huge buy back, SPCX earnings call, low PE & PEG… Yeah I bought some DRAM at $48. Late to the semi party. I think we have 1-2 years to go before major slow down. But for now I’m 95% in individual AI names trying to ride the next 1 year. I’ve been thru dot-com bust (I’m retired with 35 years in the market). I def don’t think this AI trade will bust like 2000 but when any hint of slow down, we will fall. For now I have a small basket of hardware such as AAOI, ALAB, CBRS, COHR, LITE, CRDO, AVGO, MRVL, MU, TSM, VST. I don’t think MU will reach $2500-3000 this cycle but I am hopeful $1500 next year. I thin next leg up we’ll be software and application layer. They got killed earlier this year but many have come back strong (haven’t hit their ath yet but moving right direction). Cyber as been super strong till 2 weeks ago and I have a small basket of CRWD (I bought at IPO in 2019 June), PANW, RBRK (3x since April), ZS… but their multiple is high.

They should not have disinvestment TSM when it was $90

Hi all, I’m 27 and want to stay up-to-date with up-and-coming stocks. I already invest in VOO, Palantir, Apple, AMD, SMH, and TSM. I also have Bitcoin in Robinhood along with some other stocks. I am just trying to be better and learn more about investing. I enjoy doing it. I also max out my Roth and contribute to my 401k.

if u waited till LRCX reported to know that the AI trade is dead then u r certified retardium. did you not see what happened with ASML and TSM? they reported great weeks back and the market didn't give a f.

You are right, but the pullback in the component names did start slowing down after ASML and TSM earnings. I am amazed how emotional “investors” seem to be in the AI corner of the market.

Great numbers from ASML and TSM did not prevent those stocks from gapping down after their earnings reports. It's not about whether the pullback is warranted, it's whether traders decide to sell the news regardless. Market is still under pressure, and if institutions are looking to liquidate positions, they could use any post-earnings gap higher as liquidity to sell into. I'm a long-term bull on META, it's just that earnings reactions are a coin flip.

After the great numbers of ASML and TSM, won’t strong CapEx numbers from Meta push the whole market up again? The whole sell-off seems to be based on Hock Tan (Broadcom) questioning the sustainability of investments. I don’t see why Meta would pull back now, when they are investing in their own AI services. The only reason I see for not showing increased CapEx could be an over-investment done last quarter. It could be a short-term coin flip, but I won’t doubt their long-term determination.

Ok what else do u propose? TSM actually gives a clean PE, because most of their earnings come from their core operations, so it’s really a reflection of operating income. While JNJ, GE, or ISRG all have some sort of inflated PE with some tax or one-off or some special item add on. So speaking of PE, it’s a real and legit metric to measure TSM but not to some other companies, that’s for sure. that being said, TSM still cheap compared to other companies listed here.

$TSM please, you don’t have to follow $MU

This is a follow-up to my post on journaling and I wanted to provide you with a real example. The first part provides the macro context. The second part breaks down the price action. You don't have to agree with my forecast, use it as a guideline for what you will do. PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY - After the close yesterday SPCX released earnings. The growth was spectacular across all business segments, but their AI revenues stole the show. Revenues surged 9X from $816 million last year to $7.56 billion this quarter. All of the investments they've made in the Colossus data centers will put them on a pace to generate $500 billion to $1 trillion in recurring revenue by the end of 2027.  In the press conference Musk said that the payback on AI is six months to a year. SPCX is not leasing out compute on a long-term basis, it is charging based on the "spot" price. That's because it keeps going up. He said that SPCX has looked into leasing compute for themselves and there is no supply. Elon believes that the demand will grow exponentially because the more AI is used, the more applications companies find for it. When asked about financing these projects he said that they have excellent lines of credit and that with such a short payback period these are short-term loans (they do have long-term space projects that are capital intensive).  This news has AI stocks rallying overnight and I believe they will establish support at these levels. Mega cap tech companies will reaffirm their capex in AI when they start releasing earnings next week. TSLA will report after the close today.  The big market drop from last Friday had no follow through selling. An SPY drop to the 100-day MA looks less likely and given the news, I doubt we see a capitulation low in SMH. This is the last week of seasonal weakness and now the market will shift to a period of seasonal strength.  My conclusions are not just based on SPCX earnings. TSM posted incredible results last week and cited an increase (not a decrease) in chip demand. As I've been saying, I believe the drop was caused by weak hands buying these stocks on margin and they were shaken out. Sellers were not able to push stocks lower this week and the selling climax I was hoping for failed to materialize.  Swing traders, this is a good place to sell some OTM put premium and to buy some of these stocks. Don't lunge, take starter positions and add on strength. Make sure you pick stocks that are not reporting in the next week. Earnings season is going to ramp up and we will hear from AMZN, GOOG, INTC, KLAC, LRCX, MSFT, META, SNDK, STX, TSLA and WDC over the next 10 trading days. We've waited patiently... it's time. Day traders should look for a rotation back into tech. QQQ is above the 100-day MA this morning and that level needs to hold. SPY is above the 50-day MA. We are likely to see a brief bid check on the open. That will give you time to observe chip stocks that are gapping up. They need to show RS and hold the gains. If they do, start scaling in and add on a new high for the day. Global markets were up so there is a slight tailwind this morning. Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is the open from last Friday ($773.25). This analysis is to general to be actionable. You have to breakdown it down and conduct scenario analysis based on price action. The market drives everything so we start there. SPY Gap and Go - This is our least favorable scenario because it forces us to take action right away. We don't have time to find and confirm stocks with relative strength and the move higher would require us to chase. We don't want to do that because of the risk of a gap reversal presents a lot of downside risk. A Gap and Go would feature stacked green candles right from the open and it would challenge the high from Friday. By the time the move is confirmed, much of the upside is exhausted creating more risk. The best approach is to wait for a dip and buy if the price action has been strong to that point. SPY Bid Check - Mixed overlapping candles indicate that buyers are engaged. The 50-day MA is tested and the market flies off of support. That first move would give us time to find stocks with relative strength and we could monitor them during the market pullback. We want this move to be brief and shallow preserving most of the gap. When support forms, we start buying AI stocks with RS. SPY Down Trading Channel - The market has a downward sloping trading channel with mixed overlapping candles. Sellers are marginally in control and more than half of the gap is filled. The 50-day MA is breached, but that move was stubborn. This is a fairly low odds environment and we need to focus on stocks that have heavy volume and that are moving on their own. Favor shorts, but you can trade either side if the stock's price action is strong. Keep your size small. Gap Reversal - The market has stacked red candles on the open and more than half of the gap is filled. The 50-day MA is easily breached. This would prompt us to focus on shorts. Use the 50-day MA as a stop and look for the gap to be filled easily. This move does not likely to gain a lot of traction from this level because the market is not near a relative high on a D1 basis that would attract heavy profit taking. Then you would go through your list of stocks and conduct the same type of price action analysis. Always use D1 as your guide and then look at where shorter term support and resistance (prior day high/low) come into play. Relative strength, heavy volume and price action are your guide. Write down what you want to see and once you enter the trade, what you don't want to see. Base on the above scenarios you determine what you feel are the odds of each one playing out. Today, I would favor a brief bid check. That would give me time to evaluate AI stocks for RS and a bounce off of the 50-day MA would serve as confirmation. I wrote this on the fly. I hope it helps you plan your day and journal in the future.

i don't know about SPCX but look at TSM lmao

I’m just offering that patience is an excellent strategy. If they’re in the red on TSM, they won’t be for long. If they hold.

He threw 5b into INTC because the mad king told him to bend the knee. Of course it acts as an insurance policy, but without a certain individual he wouldn’t have put 5b into Intel. Jensen is balls deep in TSM otherwise, he’d probably put his entire company’s fortune into TSM if he’s allowed to. Everything else you said I mostly agree with.

The part you flagged, forgetting what would make you wrong, is the real problem, and it's fixable without new software: \- Earnings calendar for just your tickers: most brokers and Yahoo/Google Finance let you get earnings-date alerts on a watchlist. For US companies, EDGAR lets you get email alerts on new filings, so you'd have seen the Aecom 8-K the day it dropped. \- A one-page "thesis sheet" per holding: why you own it, 2–3 metrics that matter (your TSM overseas gross margin number is a perfect example), and the specific level or event that would make you sell. Date it. \- A pre-earnings ritual: the day before a report, re-read the sheet and write what you expect. Afterwards, compare. That stops you deciding based on whatever mood you're in when you finally notice. \- Weekly sweep: 13 positions × 1 minute: any filing, guidance change, or move above your threshold? If not, close the tab. With 13 names it's very manageable once the thesis lives next to the alert instead of "somewhere".

Yes. China if did that (and a full invasion is a very remote outcome) TSM would be the least of our concerns. It would affect the world in many different ways, none of them good.

wafers production is limited by manufacture capability. TSM is the only one that can produce it so even with production going up in the future, the price will likely stay elevated because there is no other alternative offerings.

What do you think it’s fair value for TSM? They project 57% YoY next quarter.

Geopolitical risk is real. But TSM is cheaper than GE by a wide margin, so I think it is worth taking a look at it. TSM biggest customer is still Apple.

TSM 400k