TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

TSM is not reporting until Thursday 2 AM EST

WDYM? TSM good earnings means a 11% selloff.

Let's all pray TSM reports good earning tonight. Or else we may see a -5% kinda day tomorrow

Today: TSM monthly earnings, it should be out in an hour or so? Also I believe there is CPI report today.

I’ve seen much worse. You’re concentrated, but that’s not always a bad thing. I’m a huge fan of TSM so personally I’d add more to that and decrease AMZN. Right now AMZN is your second largest holding when you include the weights in AMZN from VOO and QQQM plus 8% direct - that’s a lot in AMZN, you need to be extremely, like extremely bullish in AMZN to have that much weight. So I’d ask WHY that much? Why AMZN over GOOGL or MSFT? No shade but just be ages Chris Camillo says Amazon is good doesn’t mean it is. (For disclosure I’m overweight Amazon too, but not THAT overweight). Meanwhile TSM is probably the best company on earth you can buy, and it’s underrepresented in most ETFs, so I’d consider adding extra weight to that

I thought leading into earnings week starting with TSM would give it a tailwind but holy fuck i was wrong

That's why I am buying $VXUS, $EWJ, and $VPL over $VTI. I want Kioxia, ASML, SK Hynix, Samsung, and TSM over NVIDIA, AMD, and the US $SOXX stocks.
This is another variation of the HALO trade buying the actual fabs manufacturing the damn chips. IP only gets you so far and then you are at the mercy of paying the price for fab manufacturing capacity just like everyone else.

TSM has the ADR premium because Taiwan has strict regulations that dont let you convert between the domestic shares and the ADR shares. so the arbitrage opportunity that would usually keep the domestic and ADR shares closely tied together falls apart. other ADRs may be different

Buying ADRs is also inadvisable as it normally tracks the actual stock but with a thick premium. Someone has to pay for the purchase and maintenance of foreign shares.
Just look at TSM. It's trading at USD 434.11 and the conversion ratio is 1 TSM is 5x 2330. However, 2330 is trading at TWD 2415 which is worth about USD 376/5.
Just buy DRAM.

two big upstream earnings TSM and AMSL

Semiconductor names like ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) are also on the docket. TSMC stock has been riding its 21-day exponential moving average higher after breaking out of a cup-with-handle base on April 22. 🚀 🚀 

It just dawned on me. It's not about memory, it's about fabs. That's why Global Foundries is also up 97% YTD. The memory companies either have their own fabs or have long running contracts with Kioxia or similar fabs.
These companies are valuable because TSM's capacity is booked out.

individual names hit differently than index weeklies into earnings. ASML and TSM move on bookings/orders and capex guidance, not the headline print, so you can nail the EPS number and still get run over. NFLX reports Thursday after close. first time on single names, IV crush works against you even when you're right on direction, so I'd size smaller than your QQQ/SPY habit and lean spread over naked long.

ASML, TSM, and NFLX Earnings

I should sell stuff…I really just started investing enough last year to buy more than one stock a year but I just can’t bring myself to sell some positions. Lol. I’m up over 200% on TSM, but I cant sell because it’s “gonna be great”
I commend you!

Mag 7 and friends. All your stock picks (except V and TSM) are already in QQQ.
If you want to stock pick, buy only those where you're fairly confident will outperform ETFs (within your desired time horizon)

SpaceX is a success story because it is a global leader in an impossibly difficult sector. Valuation seems questionable, but i havent really run through the numbers myself. I do not think the TTM will not be useful for it.
You are hand waving away the bleeding edge research if you are talking about The cat paper to now. That it needed that truck load of money is proof that capitalist markets do push innovation. Because google and nvda had been quietly setting the ground work for ai for almost a decade and eating that cost.
As far as Intel, at least they got equity for the bail out is the only good thing to say. Going forward that is better than the free money of the past. TSM was literally stood up by the Taiwanese government so it was never exactly an even playing field. Intel has been poorly managed for years though.
No one is forced to buy spacex. But I would own spacex before mstr which has been in the nasdaq since 2024.
I think people are confused these days about what the market is. It is just a financial vehicle. In fact, companies who forget that and actually try and raise through the public are often punished severely. The real capital markets are venture funding. That is where the value is discovered. But you do see it in public markets on occasion. Palantir and nvda both had their true value discovery in the public markets.

No. I sell covered calls. If China invades TSM stock would likely (short term) plummet. So the covered calls I sold with high strike prices would go to $1 and I’d be pretty much guaranteed profit. While watching my holdings plummet.

I would think the immediate reaction would be a serious drop in its share price. China control would automatically make things risky for TSM in the short term, that’s really my only fear with that stock but honestly it would probably be a good buying opportunity

Bought Micron in November (and s few other like Dell, Nokia, Lumentum, Amd, Amat, Lcrx) last year but sold all in January 😅 being confident something will rise is one thing but seeing it go like 3 or 4x is another. I d say TSM is a safe bet, probably not gonna moonshot but some upside from increased capacity announcements + price increases imo and realization that Intel s plan is just so far in the future. Then hyperscaler for long term given the valuations. The boom in semiconductor was a bit of a once in a lifetime opportunity imo (strong consensus, structural support from capex readability) difficult to replicate from there.