TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

I think we are seeing the bubble burst on AI. TSM is triggering a economic bottleneck. They basically control the glue that holds the powerful processors together and now the cost to manufacture is being increased. So tech companies are going to be seeing lower profit margins, the investments that were put into AI (blindly by my opinion) are not going to see their return on investment, and the costs are going to be passed into consumers, most of which are struggling in this economy.
But this is just my gathering and opinion so don't come at me.

The most profitable companies in the world and the demand just grows. That's the reason for TSM investing and investors react with panic for no reason because oh no very profitable company is investing into further scaling their business.

Im thinking its TSM with massive CAPEX spend thats got wallstreet worried about chip stocks.

TSM is not overbought like the others. still a lot of upside left

ASMl, TSM all positive. IBMs negative news was even going saying people are pivoting spending to memory. MU crushing it with guiding higher. Low forward p/e. Sign contracts.
Trump restarting a war. Oil prices back up are the downsides. Professional firms don’t like risk so they de-risk.
People can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.

Yeah? How did that work out for ASML, TSM, Netflix and ISRG so far? They all tanked before earnings and tanked more after

I chose this day to finally go on vacation too. I’m currently sitting at a bar by myself and reading this crap feeling old, stupid and broke AF! My dog sitter charges more than one share of TSM at this point. Sigh

TSM Anyone else lol

When TSM and ASML go down after Earning. What make you think Google Earning will pump it? Plus, Google is only down like -13%.

TSM is strong , way better than MU and scandisk
TSM is the bedrock of the global semiconductor industry. it is a contract manufacturer that builds the physical chips designed by other companies, like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD.

These can’t be the reasons….IBM, ASML, and now TSM have all confirmed that the demand is still strong and companies are moving $$ for AI build outs. Nothing fundamentally has changed. The strait was open and closed and reopened and closed and war was on again off again too during the tail end of this run. Market caps got out of control, and a correction was needed.
My hopium has been hinged on Google and Microsoft (hopefully) confirming their capex is maintained or increased for build outs. But after 3 reports, from 3 different companies, all confirming the game is still on….and the bleeding continues….I’m not so sure these next rounds of earnings reports are gonna do much of anything if they’re positive. And it’s gonna be an absolute bloodbath if they do talk about trimming capex.
Still great companies. AI boom still on. May not mean higher stock prices in the near term….

19 hours ago Kimi K3 was released and that news seems to be having an impact on the 5% slide in semiconductor companies. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, are all down 5% and TSM down 2.3%. TSM being down is important because they just had a stellar earnings report.
Discussions on forums about Kimi K3 indicate that the model is the second best out there based on testing. One user reported K3 catching a bug that Fable did not. What is significant about the news is that given export restrictions on China for GPUs, this Chinese lab has produced a model that will be open source. The gap between the latest versions of the major labs in America and China may be down months maybe even weeks. This model was developed with access to older generations of GPUs. Some in market are reading it as cliff of growth appearing. That there might not that much be left for these industries to grow.
Kimi K3: https://platform.kimi.ai/docs/guide/kimi-k3-quickstart

From 2000 dotcom time to 2002 bottom, Nasdaq lost 80%. $INTC $QCOM $AMZN $CSCO few survive, over 90% disappear
Internet still here, AOL, Netscape not
If AI bubble burst, after Trillions leverage push, $NVDA $MU $AVGO $TSM $SNDK $WDC & even $MSFT $META $GOOG $AMZN what’s next?

Looks pretty solid on [https://www.sentimentick.com/app/ticker/TSM](https://www.sentimentick.com/app/ticker/TSM) .
I would wait for a bit momentum on short term buyers.

if the total stock market does 10% CAGR over say 30 years, and AVUV charges .25, it needs a 10.27% CAGR to have the same ending balance ( you can always napkin math estimate this just adding a funds ER to the CAGR will get you close enough ie a .50ER needing 10.50%). historically , SCV has returned 13.6% long term. looking at asset class quilt charts you can see SCV and LB often have a ying yang relationship, an excellent diversifier. I don't expect the SVC premium to be as high in the future , but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a good .50% greater than a TSM.

For that matter, why is TSM down? Their balance sheet is solid AF

Thanks man... ASML seems very overvalued at this point but they got the EUV machines. TSM seems ok.

40 percent of this etf is 5 stocks which i would buy on dips
with half of that being TSM and ASML the 2 best positioned semis for future growth

Walnut Markets actually has TSM in an interesting spot. The tape is bearish short term, but fundamentals, insider activity, congressional buying, and institutional accumulation are all still bullish. Sometimes price lags the underlying data—I'll be watching to see if the technicals catch up.
[https://walnutmarkets.com/ticker/TSM](https://walnutmarkets.com/ticker/TSM)

My worry is the market isn’t reacting to good earnings like they were and any miss by the slightest margin from estimates is an immediate sell (Samsung, TSM) I think Micron last earnings report may have been the craziest thing I’ve ever seen on any earnings report ever and went negative delta immediately, markets top on good news and bottom on bad imo. I’ll remove my hedge around 450-500, am guessing we bottom around September.