TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

China would not accept that sort of deal imo. Having political and economic control of Taiwan is the main reason they are threatening to invade in the first place. It isn't just symbolic.
I agree it's tough to see Taiwan holding out for long without help. That being said Taiwan is wealthy, technologically advanced, and highly militarized. It has also been preparing for this specific war for decades. Invading an island is much more difficult than a land invasion.
I think the world would step in militarily if China invaded. The US is legally mandated to sell Taiwan weapons as a result of a cold war era law. Also Taiwan is just too important to the AI buildout right now.
I agree it would be pretty tough to sanction China, not sure how that would turn out. Still, if they did something to temporarily shut down TSM during the middle of the AI boom the world might actually find a way.

[Here's](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pore1a/see_nmr_mfg_if_you_want_to_benefit_from_increased/) my original DD, and [here's](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pore1a/see_nmr_mfg_if_you_want_to_benefit_from_increased/) my follow-up DD regarding MFG.
Japan's PM won the new cabinet pretty convincingly, and got away with pretty much everything she wanted. TSM will open a spanking new factory in rural Japan. Now, the policies that have been promised by the PM and MFG all will be enacted. Let alone the stablecoin project which is entirely ran by Japan's big three, which will be set as soon as paper handed kids get fully pruned from BTC/ETH, while the adults on the table buy BLSH, COIN, and CRCL at a discounted price.
There is simply no fucking way there's not going to be financial sector rally from Japan tomorrow, if not all week long. Nikkei opens in a few hours, but I have been pretty much on spot for a few months now.
Thanks for the love and hate msgs I have received in DMs, peace! I will post this again tomorrow morning. And yes, when you buy the dip, always get some KMI for the road, it's good for your health.
Not advise financial

You realize that TSM has fans in the US?

Great charts! I own Peru EPU and Chile ECH. They benefit from the commodities and materials bull cycle. Especially Peru clearly benefiting from metals. I was shaken out of MELI don’t want to own it anymore.
Bull markets are everywhere on earth. Man if Antarctic had an index fund it would probably be making all time highs right now lol.
One thing common about most of these countries is they have little or no technology, which definitely helps. And if they do, as in the case for Taiwan and Korea, they have big weighting in semiconductor and hardware, like TSM and Samsung, not software, which helps. China is an exception it does have a lot of big tech, probably why FXI has yet to break out to new ATH.
I think it is about the countries and the currency, but also more importantly about the sector compositions of these countries.

The U.S. is moving forward with Javelin and howitzer sales to Taiwan. What’s this mean for TSM bag holders or our Shipping ETFs?

TSM is their biggest customer, but they also sell to intel, samsung, micron, and anyone else who wants to manufacture a chip

I like IDVO. Up 10.6%, ytd. Has a dividend yield of 5%+. Hold some large companies like BABA, NVS, SMFG, TSM, et al.

[https://www.trackinsight.com/en/compare-etfs/SOXX,SMH,SOXQ?mode=free](https://www.trackinsight.com/en/compare-etfs/SOXX,SMH,SOXQ?mode=free)
I personally prefer SMH since they load NVDA, TSM, NVDA more than the other two. SMH itself had stock split in 2023 and it may split again since it reached 400USD so its performance seems better in the long run. Soxq is cheaper than the other two in TER but the size is the smallest. SMH is the biggest fund in semi.

Yea yesterday sold TSM 1 day call at 9:45 and if I held would have made way more but I was fine with $750. Better to take the money and move on to next. This is the way

great list. i have NVDA, TSM, GOOG, VST, VRT, AMZN, MSFT, IREN.

it's NVDA, MSFT, TSM, GOOG, META

The Semiconductor Industry Association recently projected global semiconductor sales to reach $1 trillion in 2026. That's a 26.3% YoY projected growth.
The 2025 sales total was $792 billion which was 25.5% YoY increase from the 2024 total of $631 billion.
66.3% of the 2025 sales were shared by logic chips ($302 billion, up 39.9% YoY) and memory chips ($223 billion, up 34.8% YoY).
Key application areas in AI data centers, 5G/6G, autonomous vehicles, robotics and edge computing. The 5-year projected CAGR for these areas ranges from 20% to 35% as per major research analysts.
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Long positions in both buyers and sellers. AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA and TSM. Not financial advice.

Back for another week of running ***Short Put Verticals aka Bull Put Credit Spreads***.
What a rough start to February to say the least!!
I managed to squeak out $2038 in profit despite the waves.
Here is my simple trading plan.
I am enter these trades 30-45 DTE and choosing a .25 to .35 delta short put and 1 to 2 strikes lower for the long put.
I set a stop/loss order for 150% of the premium received and a BTC order for 30% of premium received.
I currently have 26 open spreads and have closed 28 trades for the month.
Here are results for the individual tickers month to date.
|Ticker|Profit +/-|
|:-|:-|
|COST|$842|
|GOOGL|$505|
|WMT|$335|
|XLE|$276|
|TSM|$190|
|PLTR|$145|
|APLD|$120|
|KO|$70|
|INTC|$70|
|XOM|$47|
|CVX|$45|
|AMD|$35|
|MULL|$19|
|AGQ|($287)|
|RDDT|($372)|
|Totals|$2,038|

TSM the most

TSM has been a steady increase and I don’t see that changing

TSM. Buy the shovel

In the age of the gold rush, you can’t go wrong with buying companies selling the shovels -$TSM.
Also the choking point of AI is Memory. $MU $SK Hynix and $Sandisk.

VRT MU ANET TSM AMD

\*\*Hyperscalers Quarterly Growth\*\*
\* AMZN: Cloud revenue $35.6 billion (up 23.6% YoY) and Ads revenue $21.3 billion (up 23.1% YoY). AWS had the highest quarterly YoY growth in the last 13 x quarters.
\* MSFT: Intelligent Cloud revenue $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY). Azure specific growth 39%.
\* GOOGL: Cloud revenue $17.7 billion (up 47.5% YoY) and Ads revenue $82.3 billion (up 13.5% YoY). GCP had the highest quarterly YoY growth ever.
\* META: Ads revenue $58.1 billion (up 24.1% YoY). Driven by AI enhanced targeting.
\---------
\*\*2026 CapEx Forecast\*\*
\* AMZN: $200+ billion (\*"as we build out the physical data center capacity required for the generative AI era"\*)
\* GOOGL: $175 to $185 billion (\*"The risk of under-investing in AI infrastructure is far greater than the risk of over-investing"\*)
\* META: $115 to $135 billion (\*"to accelerate our AI research and product development"\*)
\* MSFT: Undisclosed, $100+ billion estimated (\*"Demand for AI services continues to outpace our available capacity. We are investing heavily to close that gap"\*)
\------------
\*\*Revenue Backlog\*\*
\* MSFT: $625 billion (up 110% YoY). $281 billion (up 969% YoY) from OpenAI and $344 billion (up 28% YoY) from other customers.
\* AMZN: $244 billion (up 40% YoY)
\* GOOGL: $240 billion (up 151% YoY)
\-------------
\*\*NVDA mentions in the latest earnings calls by hyperscalers' CEOs\*\*
GOOGL: "Our ongoing partnership with Nvidia remains a cornerstone of our AI strategy. We are pleased to announce that Google Cloud will be among the first to offer instances powered by the Vera Rubin platform later this year."
META: "We are currently standing up some of the largest compute clusters in the world. By the end of this year, our infrastructure will include the equivalent of over 600,000 H100s, and we are actively transitioning our roadmap to incorporate Blackwell and beyond."
MSFT: "Our strategy is to provide the world's most comprehensive AI infrastructure. This includes our partnership with Nvidia to bring their latest innovations to Azure, alongside our own Maia 200 silicon which is now entering volume production."
AMZN: "While we are seeing fantastic momentum with our own Trainium2 chips, we continue to work closely with external silicon providers \[Nvidia\] to ensure our AWS customers have access to the broadest range of GPU instances."
\---------------
\*\*AI CapEx Supply Chain Beneficiaries\*\*
\* Nvidia: Designs GPUs (H200, Blackwell Ultra and Rubin), CPUs (Grace and Vera) and Networking (NVLink, Ethernet-X and BlueField).
\* Broadcom: Designs Custom AI ASICs for Google (TPU) and Meta (MTIA).
\* Marvell: Designs Amazon Trainium and Inferentia.
\* TSMC: Manufactures all the logic chips from Nvidia, Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsift as well as the Nvidia networking equipment.
\* Samsung, SKHynix and Micron: Design and manufacture memory chips.
\* ​Vertiv, Schneider Electric and Eaton: Power and cooling.
\----------
Long positions: NVDA, GOOGL, META, MSFT, AMZN, TSM and MU. Not financial advice.

I think I get the gist of what you’re saying. What I’m having trouble wrapping my head around are these 2 ideas:
- future expectations are inherently baked into the price today
- over/underperformance is predicated on earnings growth exceeding/failing to exceed those expectations
I bought shares of SMH, NVDA and TSM about 4-5 years ago, and even back then a lot of people were saying those were already priced to perfection, or even overpriced. But others thought those stocks had room to grow, and after doing some research, I decided they were right. And then, after a lot of time being in the red, those stocks started going up in price. Why couldn’t that be the case today? (And I get that past performance is not an indicator, etc. But that’s more of a caveat).
Also, I’m not sure I understand the idea that thematic ETFs consistently underperform broad based index solutions. There are definitely some that do. But I thought SMH outperformed VOO and VTI for the better part of the last 10 years?
I’m just trying to get a better understanding of how the market works.