TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

>NVDA significantly undervalued according to almost every analyst
For reasons which seem pretty solid. There is no way NVIDIA can maintain the growth required to maintain their stock price (P:E). They would need to add hundreds of billions in market cap each year just to maintain the existing price. Is that possible? Maybe but the sentiment is obviously one of skepticism.
Competition has been gaining and it's likely NVIDIA will never again see the same market share or margins as they enjoyed in early 2024.
>The CUDA Moat
CUDA is common as a function of NVIDIA's market dominance but there's nothing technically special about it. ROCm, SYCL, OpenCL, Vulkan Compute, OneAPI, XLA do the same things. Torch abstracts everything away anyway so few ever interact directly with CUDA. And Triton is an increasingly popular cross vendor platform for writing low level kernels.
Nobody wants to be locked into a tightly controlled proprietary ecosystem and this is a key reason NVIDIA hadn't been winning large scale government contracts and a major reason all of NVIDIA's major customers are diversifying. And the industry is eager to replace CUDA with cross-vendor/open alternatives.
>ASICs threat is real but overblown - An ASIC is hard-coded to do one specific thing incredibly well. But AI architectures change constantly. If you spend two years and $500M designing an ASIC, and the AI industry suddenly pivots to a new type of model, your custom chip is a paperweight. nvda’s GPUs are general-purpose and programmable
These custom designs work, they offer better TCO, they de-risk supply, and are being deployed at scale. They are taking market share but furthermore they allow NVIDIA's major customers to negotiate discounts eating into NVIDIA's margins.
A general purpose system is nice for prototyping but the last thing you want to do when you're looking at the power bill for a 1MW datacenter is to just shrug off efficiency.
I would also dispute the idea that it costs $500 million to design a matrix math accelerator. These ASICs are *significantly* less complex than a general purpose CPU or GPU and the reason these customers are doing it is because it is more cost effective than paying NVIDIA's margins. If it wasn't these companies wouldn't be doing it.
>They own the VIP line at TSM
Someone has to. It used to be Apple and it'll be somebody else in the future. Being the top customer today doesn't tell you anything about where they will be in the future. And writing "massive upfront checks" means NVIDIA risks an inventory glut should anything go wrong with their big customers or the global economy. And the chances of that happening appear higher each day.
>NVDA is literally co-investing billions with TSM to build out that specific packaging equipment. Because they have the deepest pockets, they get to cut the line
And yet AMD was the [first with 2nm chips ](https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-4-14-amd-achieves-first-tsmc-n2-product-silicon-milesto.html)because their design was a better fit at this stage. But yes the big bottleneck here is CoWoS and advanced packaging. NVIDIA booked \~60% of capacity but as you've noted that required billions in upfront payments which creates a risk.
NVIDIA has to build and sell 5-7 million chips to justify that capacity but OpenAI's exponential growth seems to have stalled, Microsoft is breaking up with OpenAI, Microsoft and Meta are building their own chips, Tesla / xAI also a huge customer focusing on their own hardware, and Oracle's revenue isn't justifying capex.
And the Trump administration cancels dozens of *GW* of energy projects potentially running the industry into a power wall.
NVIDIA knows all this and is desperate to get into other markets. *Sovereign AI* is their new thing but China doesn't want to get locked into NVIDIA, the EU doesn't want to get locked into NVIDIA, no 'sovereign' state wants to get locked into a US controlled proprietary ecosystem (CUDA) so we're seeing AMD (with their firmware to driver open stack) seeing significant orders in those markets.
Meanwhile in the US the 'Genesis Mission' turned out to not be a mission, or a project, or anything beyond a series of audits. And the 'Stargate' project is struggling to raise the required funding for their lofty goals.
>If I had to guess I would say nvda breaks the $193-$195 wall post earnings, before legging up north of $200
The stock isn't going to rise unless there is a significant beat on expectations. Will they have $70B+ revenues? I am not confident but it's not impossible.

$TSM, $AAPL, $NVDA
Nah just kidding, I don’t see a lot of love for $KO, but they’ve treated me well over the years. Also have done well with energy company $NI.

If SMH has better performance with more profits return, would you still care about TER especially the other one has less profits percentage. You try to save money on TER but you lose on growth on performance. SMH has better selection and portion of their shares in top 5 holdings. Isn’t that the purpose of investing for profits? ASML and TSM are in high jump mode breaking ath record, so is MU. You should check its top 5 holdings for their future outlook. You can decide which etf is better.

TSM

More hyperscalers and software dumping while TSM and MU pump

GOOG and TSM

EPD,PEP, ENB, AMCR, TSM (yes it has a dividend).

That’s a negative to me. One of the main reasons to get SMH is TSM

TSM, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL

I am aware that picking a semi ETF is high risk. You are really concentrated in a small sector. However, semis are everywhere and are not going away anytime soon. I have a small position (10%) in SMH and SOXQ. I know that there is a high overlap. I did this because my position in SMH is much older and I did not want to increase my DCA. That being said, while most will say to use the more popular SMH, I actually prefer SOXQ for a few reasons:
1. Lower ER (0.19 vs 0.35) which can saves $1,000's in large accounts.
2. Not as NVDA or TSM heavy. NVDA has stalled in recent months.
3. Slightly more diversified than SMH. Probably not that big of a deal, but it does provide a tad bit more coverage.
4. Not to chase recent performance, but SOXQ has beaten SMH in the past 6 months. This will bounce back and forth over time.
If you use semis in your portfolio, which one did you choose and why?

MU, TSM, WDC.

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Look, I know calling nvda "undervalued" right now sounds crazy to some of yall. The Mag 7 has been getting beat down, January was a historically shitty month driven by all those AI cash-burn fears, AI disruption fears, AI stole everyone’s lunch money fears, competitors are no longer using nvda chips fears, and fears about NVDA losing customers. Basically, all good news and bad news = nvda bad. This has caused NVDA to be frustratingly range-bound for the last 6 months while AMD, AVGO, and the next nvda slayer currently are up 30%+.
The underlying business more than justifies the current $182 price tag. The "nvda trade" has created a massive blind spot. Here is a breakdown of why NVDA is actually trading at a massive discount right now, and why the competition isn't as scary as the headlines make it seem.
1. NVDA significantly undervalued according to almost every analyst every modern/semi modern price/earnings/guidance formula.
If you value tech stocks using old-school, asset-heavy formulas, everything but land looks like a bubble. But if you drop the outdated metrics and use a modern Discounted Cash Flow method—which looks at the actual cash the business is going to print over the next five years and discounts it back to today's value—the narrative flips completely.
Right now, Wall Street is terrified that the big cloud providers are going to stop buying chips (even though they just said they would be buying more chips and are massively increasing capex!). But if we run a bull scenario where AI data center spending continues to scale to meet physical robotics and agentic AI demands, and nvda simply maintains its current margins as Blackwell rolls out, the DCF model spits out a fair intrinsic value of around $266 per share. The average Wallstreet price target is $257. Even the revised and somewhat outdated graham formula puts nvda in the $230 range.
Here is the kicker: nvda reports Q4 earnings next week on Feb 25. Wall Street expects around $1.52 per share for the quarter. If they just meet that expectation (and they usually beat it), their trailing 12-month earnings will jump from $4.06 to almost $4.70. If the stock price stays flat going into earnings, that report will instantly make the stock mathematically cheaper than it is today. You are paying about 25x forward earnings for a company growing revenue at 60%+. To hit that $266 DCF target, they don't need a miracle; they just need to execute the playbook they are already running.
Yes, I know nvda stock has dropped after beating expectations the last two quarters. But keep in mind, nvda's price going into those last two earnings was actually at or higher than it is today, while their revenue has grown by 40% over the last 6 months. There is no rule that says NVDA must go down after earnings, and the bar for to crush positive earnings to result in the stock pumping hasn’t been this low for a year.
2. The CUDA Moat
The biggest misconception is that nvda is just a hardware company, and that AMD will eventually just build a faster, cheaper chip and steal their lunch, that ignores CUDA.
CUDA is NVDA's proprietary software platform. For almost 20 years, developers have been writing AI code on CUDA, and it only works on nvda chips. If a massive cloud provider wants to switch to AMD, they can't just swap the hardware. They have to rewrite years of software and retrain their engineers. The switching costs are practically insurmountable. Plus, nvda doesn't just sell individual GPUs anymore. They sell the whole "AI factory." They bundle the chips with their own proprietary networking cables, CPUs, and liquid-cooled server racks. They are locking customers into their entire ecosystem.
3. ASICs threat is real but overblown
What about the hyperscalers? MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META are all designing their own custom ASICs to avoid paying NVDA's crazy 75% gross margins. This is a real threat, but it has a massive blind spot: rigidity. An ASIC is hard-coded to do one specific thing incredibly well. But AI architectures change constantly. If you spend two years and $500M designing an ASIC, and the AI industry suddenly pivots to a new type of model, your custom chip is a paperweight. nvda’s GPUs are general-purpose and programmable. Developers can tweak them overnight to run new models.
And just to hedge their bets, nvda recently spun up a secret Custom Silicon unit. If AMZN or GOOGL absolutely demands a custom chip, NVDA is stepping in to design it for them so that money doesn't walk out the door to AVGO or MRVL.
4. They own the VIP line at TSM
As of early 2026, nvda officially dethroned AAPL as TSM's biggest customer. Getting chips built at TSM isn't a "first come, first served" deal. You have to write massive upfront checks to reserve factory space years in advance. nvda's real bottleneck hasn't been the silicon; it's the complex advanced packaging required to put AI chips together. NVDA is literally co-investing billions with TSM to build out that specific packaging equipment. Because they have the deepest pockets, they get to cut the line.
My projection:
Do I know nvda will pump to $200 next week and $225 post earnings? No, I don’t have a crystal ball. But NVDA is severely undervalued and can only be artificially kept down for so long before the next leg up. If I had to guess I would say nvda breaks the $193-$195 wall post earnings, before legging up north of $200.

WMT doesn’t have any previous highs. In fact you should invest more. Sky is the limit.
Don’t listen to the baggers try to pass AMZN to you.
Instead of looking at AMZN. Go TSM

If you see a better opportunity elsewhere then yes, it makes sense to rotate parts of or all your TSM position to other holdings.

I bought GOOGL in January 2025 when the P/E was around 21. It’s now my third-largest position, behind TSM and NVDA.
At this point, I think the stock is fairly valued. The P/E is now in the low 30s, the company is still heavily dependent on advertising, and there are real risks that LLMs could gradually disrupt the traditional browser model.
It’s also approaching a $4T market cap. I don’t see that much upside from here.
A $4T company trading at a P/E of 30 doesn’t look undervalued to me.

I believe TSM is a slightly better deal than alphabet right now. But the difference is small. I believe there're even better deals in AMD, NVDA, MRVL, AVGO and MU currently.

Reason why the market won’t truly crash? Bag 7 is spending 500-600B annually with projections to increase. Direct benefactors of this are memory and chip companies. Chip companies will continue to blast profit margins and EPS out of the water because all that money is funneled into their pockets. AMD, TSM, NVDA, and AVGO will go ballistic for the next 2 years at least.

You said you worked in semi, that's not AI. People in semi are huge AI bears, that's why TSM is so slow on ramp and memory is so expensive.

It's not just about who can operate the fastest and at the lowest cost. It's also about who controls the moat on components the entire supply chain relies on. **$NVDA,** **$ASML,** **$MU, $TSM** all control critical components that the entire AI stack uses.

Personally I own SMH for broad based exposure, got in last April during the tariffs concerns.
I built a dashboard (**semiflow.io**) tracking 18 core semiconductor companies with metrics gathered from 10-K filings. I wanted to see where the real supply and demand is through monitoring revenue, margins, and inventory levels (to see who is actually being efficient vs. who is building up a glut).