TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Thanks. I feel comfortable with NVDA + TSM (been growing my position to be \~50% of my NVDA holdings) and adding AVGO as the smallest holding of the 3. Will then monitor AVGO going forward to see how to adjust the weighting.

I love TSM and moved 1K out of NVDA to put into TSM. There's a Sleep Well At Night factor for me in it because no other foundry comes close. And I don't have to bet on which semi company has the most wins.

Do you still like TSM? I think it's one of the safer AI plays out there. Whether it's ASIC's or GPU's TSM wins either way. I've been buying anytime it goes near $400. In 2-3 years I think it can be $800+.

Fair callout. That’s definitely something to consider if OP still wants a two horse tech run. It’s still 80% US, but within the top 10 you have TSM, ASML, Samsung, and SK.

I sold some amounts of my semi's (NVDA AVGO ASML LRCX TER) to put into SMH (and even into VOO and QQQM as semi's runup has taken too much of my overall portfolio). Over the years I had been tempted to buy TSM AMD AMAT KLAC MRVL MU; figured it might just be best to go with the ETF.
Sometimes sector based ETF's are watered down with lots of underperformers. But the nice thing about SMH is with such a limited pool of stocks, the large majority are 2-3 decades leaders in their niche. It's predominantly proven winners, and low on underperformers and more speculative plays.

Fundamentals are still good for all 3, but the chart for AVGO is in a downtrend. Sectors and individual stocks within sectors move in cycles. NVDA was deemed as “too expensive” for the last year even though their PEG ratio is below 1 and lower than all the mega caps. Didn’t make sense. MRVL has a narrative atm of being a threat to AVGO’s ASIC revenue. It’s probably a bit overblown but the street loves the story and sees MRVL as undervalued compared to its competitors. MRVL spent years building a base between roughly $60-$120 before breaking out this year. I first bought the stock in 2022/2023 for around $65. I sold it back in ‘24 before its first run to $120, but then came back to it this spring just under $80. This is why trading individual stocks is so hard. You literally do need to keep track of this stuff almost every single day over years to be able to see the best opportunities before others do. NVDA is currently in ascendancy and is closely aligned with MRVL so those are the two I would be buying.
On another note, if you want some foundry exposure and missed TSM, I would recommend buying GFS and UMC. INTC is also a no brainer at these levels. I like CBRS too. However, my main focus in the chip sector is power semis. They had a great run in the spring but got sold off hard. Power semis and the 800v DC theme will be a huge opportunity in the coming years. Then quantum will likely come next.
You can’t go wrong buying AVGO long term, but I think you will have better gains in the short term with NVDA and MRVL. AVGO will have its moment when OAI Jalapeño chip starts its mass production.

Nice. From there I swing trade individual stocks. MSFT, AMD, TSM, NVDA, ANZN, etc. Stuff that I don't mind being stuck with if there's a sudden market correction. Profits always get dumped into the ETFs above. This method has been working great so far, and beating just going all in on VOO/VTI. I'm not that close to retirement, but I like adding VYM and/or SCHG as time goes on.

Thanks. I feel comfortable with NVDA + TSM (been growing my position to be \~50% of my NVDA holdings) and adding AVGO as the smallest holding of the 3. Will then monitor AVGO going forward to see how to adjust the weighting.

I love TSM and moved 1K out of NVDA to put into TSM. There's a Sleep Well At Night factor for me in it because no other foundry comes close. And I don't have to bet on which semi company has the most wins.

Do you still like TSM? I think it's one of the safer AI plays out there. Whether it's ASIC's or GPU's TSM wins either way. I've been buying anytime it goes near $400. In 2-3 years I think it can be $800+.

Fair callout. That’s definitely something to consider if OP still wants a two horse tech run. It’s still 80% US, but within the top 10 you have TSM, ASML, Samsung, and SK.

I sold some amounts of my semi's (NVDA AVGO ASML LRCX TER) to put into SMH (and even into VOO and QQQM as semi's runup has taken too much of my overall portfolio). Over the years I had been tempted to buy TSM AMD AMAT KLAC MRVL MU; figured it might just be best to go with the ETF.
Sometimes sector based ETF's are watered down with lots of underperformers. But the nice thing about SMH is with such a limited pool of stocks, the large majority are 2-3 decades leaders in their niche. It's predominantly proven winners, and low on underperformers and more speculative plays.

Fundamentals are still good for all 3, but the chart for AVGO is in a downtrend. Sectors and individual stocks within sectors move in cycles. NVDA was deemed as “too expensive” for the last year even though their PEG ratio is below 1 and lower than all the mega caps. Didn’t make sense. MRVL has a narrative atm of being a threat to AVGO’s ASIC revenue. It’s probably a bit overblown but the street loves the story and sees MRVL as undervalued compared to its competitors. MRVL spent years building a base between roughly $60-$120 before breaking out this year. I first bought the stock in 2022/2023 for around $65. I sold it back in ‘24 before its first run to $120, but then came back to it this spring just under $80. This is why trading individual stocks is so hard. You literally do need to keep track of this stuff almost every single day over years to be able to see the best opportunities before others do. NVDA is currently in ascendancy and is closely aligned with MRVL so those are the two I would be buying.
On another note, if you want some foundry exposure and missed TSM, I would recommend buying GFS and UMC. INTC is also a no brainer at these levels. I like CBRS too. However, my main focus in the chip sector is power semis. They had a great run in the spring but got sold off hard. Power semis and the 800v DC theme will be a huge opportunity in the coming years. Then quantum will likely come next.
You can’t go wrong buying AVGO long term, but I think you will have better gains in the short term with NVDA and MRVL. AVGO will have its moment when OAI Jalapeño chip starts its mass production.

Nice. From there I swing trade individual stocks. MSFT, AMD, TSM, NVDA, ANZN, etc. Stuff that I don't mind being stuck with if there's a sudden market correction. Profits always get dumped into the ETFs above. This method has been working great so far, and beating just going all in on VOO/VTI. I'm not that close to retirement, but I like adding VYM and/or SCHG as time goes on.

The only thing I’d sell NVIDIA for is TSM and even then they’re kinda tethered anyway

One thing worth considering is that a lot of the space stocks that sold off before SPCX were low market cap (RKLB, ASTS, PL, FLY, LUNR, etc). Compare that to AI and you’re talking about companies worth a trillion or hundreds of billions (SKHY, MU, ASML, TSM). A lot of space stocks are also way more speculative and in their infancy, while AI stocks are highly profitable and accelerating. It’s apples and oranges. I’d be lying if I told you for sure they wouldn’t sell off, but I doubt it.

Recent yrs. reality is that NVDA and TSM do move with quite a high degree of correlation, which I guess makes sense on the basis of NVDA’s leadership and size, but, as TSMC grows and services more and more chip makers I would think that correlation should weaken, but it hasn’t much. But if you’re looking to move $ from NVDA to TSMC, now could be as good a time as any. NDVA is \~3% off its all time high, while TSMC is 12% off its all time high and has appreciated +5% in the last wk. (so last week would perhaps have been better, but whatever). TSMC will grind higher. It will in tandem with NVDA, but it will also move on their own earnings and revenue growth, it will respond to AVGO, it also responds to their own monthly reporting of net sales and yoy growth. It also delivers a 1% div. yield which is about 1.5x NVDA’s, 0.42%,m. Neither are much, but if you’re holding for a few years, it’s better than a kick in the head.
But… it’s also worth considering this: Broadcom (AVGO) just delivered strong earnings. Their growth rate remains intact, yet AVGO is about 40% off its all time high. There’s clearly a mean reversion rerating in the pipeline in Q4/2027 and if they eventually meet and exceed their ATH, there’s 50%+ upside. (For NVDA to achieve that the market would have to find $2.75 trillion. I’d call that pretty unlikely).

NVDA, TSM, GOOG, SKHY