TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

TradeStation and MooMoo have announced options extended hours will be available on their platforms starting Monday, October 19th. ETF’s: SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD, XLF Equities: NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MU, INTC, META, AMZN, AMD, MSFT, GOOGL, PLTR, ORCL, AVGO, NFLX, HOOD, GOOG, SNDK, BAC, MRVL, BABA, TSM, NOK, F, PFE PreMarket: 7:30-9:25am ET AfterHours: 4:00-4:15pm ET Anyone receive emails from other brokers announcing they will be offering extended hours for options?

TSM the only ones who can cook the blue m3th...

$TSM, calls or puts??

TSM at $408 today was the dip

If you look at any of the Mag 7 or even the Mag 10 as they’re calling it now with chipmakers like micron, TSM, and Broadcom, Apple has had substantially the least monetization percentage of capital towards AI and also the least as a vocal point for the direction of the company. People were skeptical of Apple for this same reason saying oh if Google and Amazon win the AI race then Apple is done for. Apple has had big announcements in home innovation and the duo (I’m not a fan but many people are), and have been growing the company in ways apart from AI and has been the best performing mag 7 stock ytd. Sure AI is only just beginning but I genuinely think Apple is still undervalued and is a great buy even though standard analysts are saying it’s 2% from its 12 month price target. I made the mistake of trimming Apple stock a few weeks ago to reallocate across more defensive sectors and I’m regretting it.

Closed three calendars on ER plays. BLK +520 TSM +90 SCHW -25. Not bad for less than two days in the positions. Any of these might have been richer if I rode them until 10/16 but I decided to book the sure thing. Dang SMH is dragging me down. Somebody make it stop! One large position is hovering right near my alleged exit rule. Flirting with disaster by holding it "one more day"

Really wanted to get into ibkr earnings but couldn't get a fill. Tried a 80 put, 92 call for about $0.45 of premium but didnt get a fill. kinda bummed but had a limit order for 10 sets. Guess the TSM price action kinda scared a lot of people in the morning but turned out okay in the end haha :)

Did TSM save us

I think it was a good move to buy TSM today

Friday, Oct 16 is a regional-bank and insurer earnings morning, a monthly options expiry, and the second session of a rate-hike scare that has hit chips hardest. I've framed this for a days-to-weeks horizon. **1. Catalysts** * **Macro:** Hot CPI of 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected pushed rate-hike odds up \[4\]. Retail sales rose 0.8% m/m against 0.3% expected \[2\]. Friday brings import prices and industrial production (8:30 and 9:15 ET) \[1\]. Fed Chair Warsh also has a speaking slot. I couldn't confirm whether it falls tonight or Friday, and Kalshi lists an IMF fireside chat originally set for Oct 15 \[16\]. Oct 16 is also monthly options expiry (third Friday, my inference from the calendar). * **Earnings:** Truist (TFC), Regions (RF), M&T (MTB), Citizens (CFG) and Travelers (TRV) report Friday, with the banks pre-market \[8\]\[6\]\[7\]. TFC consensus EPS runs $1.05–$1.17 depending on the source \[5\]\[6\]\[14\]. TRV consensus is $7.43 \[15\]. * **Backdrop:** Yesterday's Nasdaq fell 1.88% \[3\]. The 10-year yield is 5.19% \[3\]. **2. Names and ETFs exposed** * Chips and AI: NVDA, MU, AMD, TSM, ASML, MRVL, SOXX/SMH, QQQ. * Regional banks: TFC, RF, MTB, CFG, KRE. * Insurers: TRV. * Rate-sensitive broad market: SPY. * Gold and oil: both elevated, gold at about $4,160 and WTI near $95 \[4\]. **3–4. Levels for the five most exposed** Levels are close-based swing pivots plus the 50-day moving average (SMA50), so they are approximate. |Ticker|Last|Support|Resistance|Read| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |NVDA|$217.23|$216.12 (-0.5%)|$224.45 (+3.3%)|Sitting on support; SMA50 is $223.06| |MU|$931.24|$917.09 (-1.5%)|$990.05 (+6.3%)|Near support; 23% below its high| |TFC|$46.57|$46.24 (-0.7%)|$47.95 (+3.0%)|Near support; 52-week low of $45.57 was hit Oct 14| |TRV|$383.89|$379.49 (-1.2%)|$384.68 (+0.2%)|Pressed against resistance; 52-week high is $395.87| |QQQ|$728.00|$710.64 (-2.4%)|$739.65 (+1.6%)|Mid-range, at the SMA50 of $726.41| **5. Betting markets** * **Fed:** Polymarket gives 70.5% to "no change or hike" at the Oct 27 meeting \[9\]. The Kalshi market on the funds-rate upper bound after the Oct 28 meeting puts 27% on it ending above 4.00% \[9\]. Kalshi gives 85% to a hike by Dec 31 \[9\]. The CME FedWatch figure of 34% for an October hike \[2\] is a different measure from these. * **NVDA:** Polymarket gives 48.5% to up on Friday (volume only $10, so treat as noise). It gives 66.5% to a weekly close above $215 and 6.5% to a Friday close above $225 \[17\]. It gives 49% to NVDA touching $208 during October \[17\]. **6. Flags (short-term)** * **TRV (higher):** It is up 29% in six months \[12\] and sits $0.79 below resistance, so a beat could break out. The risk is that 29% of run-up leaves little room for a miss. * **TFC (higher), the highest-variance name:** It is at a 52-week-low area with a lowered bar, and the first bank prints will set the tone for RF, MTB and CFG. Analyst EPS estimates range from $0.37 to $1.52 \[5\]. A close below $46.24 would turn this into a breakdown. * **NVDA and MU (either way):** Both are testing support after a 20-day decline (NVDA -2.3%, MU -8.3%) \[10\]\[11\]. A hot Warsh headline or import-price print makes a support break likely. A soft print gives room for a rebound toward $224 and $990. MU's +4.7% bounce today shows how violent the swings are \[13\]. * **QQQ and SPY:** These need a Nasdaq move of more than 2.4% to hit support, which is less likely in one session. **Net view:** The strongest bear point is rates: a Fed that hikes (Kalshi 85% by year-end \[9\]) with a 5.19% 10-year pressures both chips and banks. Leaning opportunistic, I'd favour upside in TRV and TFC on earnings, and treat NVDA and MU as tactical bounce candidates only while $216 and $917 hold. A close below either level is the signal to exit. The NVDA prior-close figures in my sources conflict, so verify the intraday levels before trading. **Sources** * \[1\] U.S. Economic Calendar — Web Search * \[2\] Bitcoin & XRP Slip as US PPI Inflation Comes in Hot at 6.3%, Eyes on Fed Kevin Warsh’s Speech — Web Search * \[3\] Nvidia Stock News (Oct 15, 2026): NVDA Falls 3.2% to $221.30 | Gotrade — Web Search * \[4\] 【US Pre-Market】TSMC's Record Profit Fails to Save Chip Stocks as Nvidia, Micron Fall Ahead of US PPI — Web Search * \[5\] Truist Financial Q3 2026 Earnings Preview — October 16, Street Expects $1.05 EPS - Alphastreet — Web Search * \[6\] Daily US Earnings Estimates: 16th October 2026 | Newsquawk — Web Search * \[7\] EarningsCall · Earnings Calendar - 10/16/2026 — Web Search * \[8\] Regions Financial Corp. to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on October 16 — Web Search * \[9\] Prediction markets: Fed rate hike October — Source * \[10\] NVDA Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · NVDA * \[11\] MU Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · MU * \[12\] TRV Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · TRV * \[13\] MU Quote — Live Quote · MU * \[14\] TFC Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · TFC * \[15\] TRV Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · TRV * \[16\] Prediction markets: Warsh — Source * \[17\] Prediction markets: Nvidia — Source

You maybe right! Yeah buys yer stock and ya takes yer chances. No one can predict the future. I think long term AMD is a great company (5+). I just had it reach 10% of my total portfolio and brought it back to 5%. I also own NVDA, TSM, GEV, APPL, etc. To me AMD I bought it years ago for EYPC, and now its changed to an AI stock. So I'm keeping a weary eye on my AI holdings out of caution and a memory of playing the markets in the 2000s. When I owned QCOM, CSCO and RHET and made 100s' of K. Then lost 100s of K. Its not more cautious, I like to think as I still place big bets. Its also learning my lesson to not treat the stock market as a casino.

I was excited to see my ADBE position go +4% while I see the AI stuff plummet. My TSM went down, but I am holding that until I die anyways.

Product transition costs and currency fluctuations make a 1% margin variance statistical noise. Applying "Peak GM" to TSMC because of a 1% quarterly fluctuation is funny. TSM is ramping up and stable while dealing with costly transitioning to the new 2nm node. But yes, timing selloffs like this is exactly the type of shit bros on Wall Street would do. They wouldn’t call it peak GM though in this case.

Is there one AI stock you think is actually a semi-reasonable full port right now? APLD? NBIS? TSM? MU?

Will TSM rebound tomorrow?

> But it was just as true when he bought it lmao. Yea, but didn't he make ~500mil on TSM? Maybe he was just happy with that in a year. It's not bad.

long TSM $420/430 CDS for $4.22 exp 10/23

But it was just as true when he bought it lmao. I never understand the geography argument. Most companies are riskier than TSM, the risk is just less scary so people irrationally overrate it. It's like how people are scared of flying or terrorism, but not driving to work. I would be terrified to own a company like Nike with a million competitors, consumer sentiment shifts, etc.

Same here. I’ve been trimming my positions since late August and am currently holding nearly 40% in cash. I raised a bit more cash today, allocating it into 6–9 week T-bills—joining what seems to be a broader trend. My goal is to remain flexible in case the Fed decides to hike rates in December. A few macro and market thoughts on my radar: * **The AI Trade Shift:** Back in June, I identified liquidity crunches and "neocloud" stress as potential early warning indicators for the end of Phase 1 of the AI trade. We seem to be seeing those pressures play out now. Since this tripped for me I've been selling. * **Short-Term Valuation Risk:** I’m skeptical that Anthropic will hit its public market whisper numbers (expectations of a 10x revenue jump year-over-year) as IPO chatter intensifies. A miss or softer outlook there could force a broader AI repositioning. Or a total not going public. * **Earnings Reactions:** Stellar earnings aren't pushing stocks higher right now. TSM delivered blowout numbers, yet it still traded down today. While I maintain a healthy allocation to TSM given its fundamentals, the price action speaks volumes. * Anecdotally, there is a lot of negative sentiment, doomerism roadshows, and speculative "casino" behavior in the market right now. What do you see as the catalyst for an upside surprise from here? A novel new AI lab or use of AI will pump this I think, but that is unpredicable from where I sit.

Tf dude TSM earnings were yesternufht night,. Revenue up 50%

Thank you for the input. Truthfully the way I approach stock metrics in general was naively underdeveloped, as I’ve come to realize. I’ve decided to hold because a) I superficially understand tax lots so I don’t want to mess with them; and b) I do believe that the essential nature of semiconductors to our technology makes TSM something worth holding, even through loss. How would you define “business reasons?”

TSM: *has good earnings* Market: 🖕

im going to fullport it i think. TSM

Yea was a bit rough, was down 500 but held. Exited the setup with $92 but would've been more since TSM went up. All's good haha

Sold all my Google and TSM I’ve held since Covid for OPEN and weed stocks