TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

yes TSM calls

TSM calls?

Feels like a bullish week to me - no options buying but just bought ALAB, MU, TSM on margin (didn't learn from Leo)

$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $TSM $MU $SKHY
When BigTech cash flow negative .
Banks shutdown AI-debt load, after few blow up like “Situational Awareness story “. $45 Billion overnight
Then semi unwinds $2-3 Trillion
How long OpenAI & Anthropic keep cash burning $40 Billion a year ?

ABBV, AMGN, BAC, AVGO, CAT, CTAS, KO, COKE, COST, DE, FAST, HD, JPM, LOW, MA, MCD, PH, PEP, REXR, SCHD, SNA, TSM, TSCO, UNH, and VICI
VICI & REXR dont fall under the stated blue chip aristocrat category but I added them to boost overall dividend yield a bit as I believe in the two REITs long term being good

Alright, sold all three of my shares 😃
Now could my fucking 70 shares of TSM pump like this too!?!?

$SMH $MU $SKHY $SNdK $TSM $INtC $AMD $STX
How many Trillion AI-margin debt , when total margin debt 1.5 Trillion , last week wiped $45 Billion in a day, Situational Awareness.
Memory is cyclical, AI doesn’t mater
Ask any AI , why memory is cyclical?

Microsoft and Google are two of my biggest individual holdings.
(TSM, GEV and STRL round out top 5)

AGNC, AM, CHPY, DX, FEPI, GOF, GOOG, MLPI, NVDA, QQQI, SMH, TSM.
My 750k brings in 95k/yr in divvies, not counting growth.

I added some TSM. Not touching memory or INTC

A. The **Hyperscalers/Platforms/Compute** have had a very good few days since earnings last week. Obvious companies but the hyperscalers were punished for spending too much and now the ROI is showing. EG: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL, NBIS, CRWV

My view: I built this one up while B was slipping.

B. The most crowded category the market has at least temporarily soured on: the picks and shovels. **Physical suppliers.** Capex dependent. Capex is still accelerating so the bulls are hanging tough. But the bears ask, are we near the peak of capex spending acceleration? EG: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, SK Hynix, ASML, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, ANET, VRT, LITE, COHR

My view: I reduced but the market may have overreacted down on concerns that the rate of capex spending won't keep accelerating.

C. There's Model, **Software** and workflow. They sell the layer that lets customers operate and deploy AI. EG: PLTR, NOW, PEGA, PANW, CRWD, DDOG, SNOW, CRM, ADBE
My view: PEGA may be undervalued now

D. Then there's the non-AI businesses where AI dramatically improves their returns more than others. IDK what to call them. **AI Value Creators?** EG: APP MELI TEM CAI INTU.
My view: This is the area I've most been interested in. CAI, APP, MELI.... After all the capex spending plays out these "boring" companies may be very good investments.
E. And **Power/Energy**. EG: GEV VRT ETN CEG VST TLN OKLO SMR BE
My view: Good. I haven't changed conviction.
F. There's also AI-enabled new markets, like robotics, space, autonomous driving, drug discovery, but they may fit into categories above. Lots of examples. Lots of interest. Some have a lot of future priced in.
This is all very loose with lots of overlap. Categorization isn't perfect so feel free to add your own.
Where's your conviction?

TSM and AMKR. Wild to me that they aren't.

Semis need to break away from meme stocks like MU and SNDK to have any chance of real recovery. There's no reason a company like TSM should be pumping right now.

TSM being fluffed all morning and cant get it up

It‘s so easy, just buy and hold Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, JP Morgan and TSM

is there anyway China could legally invade Netherlands and get those ASICs the tip in the market was they are close to produicing 3nm wafers and way too far from the 1nm ones they can do 7 and 10 and 15 and 28 pretty well by now would not be surprised for half of TSM workforce has extended families in mainland

Apparently you don’t understand the article or else you won’t reply my comments with it. The article says they are burning their current model into silicon. Of course, all ASIC does that. The first two letters literally say application specific. But the model evolves very fast. Their researchers use GPUs to create new algorithms and change architectures. Nvidia GPUs enjoy those performance gains immediately, but their newly minted silicon design goes to Broadcom first, and then TSM, by the time those silicon are deployed, their savings already lagged behind the newest algorithms running on GPUs

Feelings on buying shares or leaps?
I have leaps on TSM, GOOG, AMZN.
I have shares of MSFT

Thanks for sharing! TSM seems to be discounted because of geopolitical risk, but my sense is any event will tank the whole market, not just TSM…

Ok so still the supplier side. I'm in semis too. TSM, ASML, AVGO, etc. Volatile. Crowded. Was just thinking about what is AI actually good at. There's a lot of magic thinking about AI but it's very good at processing information. That got me thinking about businesses where that could lead to strong upside.