TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

|**Stock**|**Current Price**|**ATH**|**percent to ATH**|**off from ATH**|**Market Cap**| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |NVDA|$216.47|$243.37|12.43%|11.05%|$5.22T| |TSM|$413.53|$487.47|17.88%|15.17%|$1.88T| |ASML|$1,654.78|$1,999.96|20.86%|17.26%|$629.41B| |**AMD**|**$540.85**|**$658.52**|**21.76%**|**17.87%**|$883.60B| |SMH|$547.67|$671.83|22.67%|18.48%|\-| |MU|$897.60|$1,255.00|39.82%|28.48%|$1.02T| |MRVL|$233.91|$329.88|41.03%|29.09%|$205.11B| |SKHY|$138.50|$199.87|44.31%|30.70%|$697.51B| |AVGO|$335.28|$495.00|47.64%|32.27%|$1.60T| |INTC|$91.56|$142.35|55.47%|35.68%|$483.87B| |LRCX|$267.11|$438.50|64.16%|39.09%|$334.26B| |STX|$651.05|$1,145.00|75.87%|43.14%|$149.02B| |SNDK|$1,337.29|$2,354.39|76.06%|43.20%|$194.35B| |AMAT|$415.45|$739.67|78.04%|43.83%|$329.70B| |ARM|$234.61|$452.70|92.96%|48.18%|$250.56B| |WDC|$339.54|$799.87|135.57%|57.55%|$126.84B| |CRWV|$63.04|$187.00|196.64%|66.29%|$34.71B| As bad as it feels, we're doing better than average for the whole sector.

So what? TSM also exceeded expectations. Did it go up?

TSM, CRPT, DSGX,

Bought Micron, TSM and MRVL.

Add TSM there as well

TSM KLAC LRCX maybe a few others.

Cbrs be a great company if they didn't need TSM to manufacture their chips. If they could do it themselves they would pump

TSM

TSM going down

TSM dump

I like NVDA. But for r/r I think actually like TSM better. They win no matter what. And the whole Taiwan geopolitical risk to me is silly. If China were to invade Taiwan, the entire economy is fckd, esp all these chip names, not just TSM

Gonna 0dte TSM today, wish me luck.

AMD, TSM, MU, NVDA all shit

TradeStation and MooMoo have announced options extended hours will be available on their platforms starting Monday, October 19th. ETF’s: SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD, XLF Equities: NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MU, INTC, META, AMZN, AMD, MSFT, GOOGL, PLTR, ORCL, AVGO, NFLX, HOOD, GOOG, SNDK, BAC, MRVL, BABA, TSM, NOK, F, PFE PreMarket: 7:30-9:25am ET AfterHours: 4:00-4:15pm ET Anyone receive emails from other brokers announcing they will be offering extended hours for options?

TSM the only ones who can cook the blue m3th...

$TSM, calls or puts??

TSM at $408 today was the dip

If you look at any of the Mag 7 or even the Mag 10 as they’re calling it now with chipmakers like micron, TSM, and Broadcom, Apple has had substantially the least monetization percentage of capital towards AI and also the least as a vocal point for the direction of the company. People were skeptical of Apple for this same reason saying oh if Google and Amazon win the AI race then Apple is done for. Apple has had big announcements in home innovation and the duo (I’m not a fan but many people are), and have been growing the company in ways apart from AI and has been the best performing mag 7 stock ytd. Sure AI is only just beginning but I genuinely think Apple is still undervalued and is a great buy even though standard analysts are saying it’s 2% from its 12 month price target. I made the mistake of trimming Apple stock a few weeks ago to reallocate across more defensive sectors and I’m regretting it.

Closed three calendars on ER plays. BLK +520 TSM +90 SCHW -25. Not bad for less than two days in the positions. Any of these might have been richer if I rode them until 10/16 but I decided to book the sure thing. Dang SMH is dragging me down. Somebody make it stop! One large position is hovering right near my alleged exit rule. Flirting with disaster by holding it "one more day"

Really wanted to get into ibkr earnings but couldn't get a fill. Tried a 80 put, 92 call for about $0.45 of premium but didnt get a fill. kinda bummed but had a limit order for 10 sets. Guess the TSM price action kinda scared a lot of people in the morning but turned out okay in the end haha :)

Did TSM save us

I think it was a good move to buy TSM today

Friday, Oct 16 is a regional-bank and insurer earnings morning, a monthly options expiry, and the second session of a rate-hike scare that has hit chips hardest. I've framed this for a days-to-weeks horizon. **1. Catalysts** * **Macro:** Hot CPI of 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected pushed rate-hike odds up \[4\]. Retail sales rose 0.8% m/m against 0.3% expected \[2\]. Friday brings import prices and industrial production (8:30 and 9:15 ET) \[1\]. Fed Chair Warsh also has a speaking slot. I couldn't confirm whether it falls tonight or Friday, and Kalshi lists an IMF fireside chat originally set for Oct 15 \[16\]. Oct 16 is also monthly options expiry (third Friday, my inference from the calendar). * **Earnings:** Truist (TFC), Regions (RF), M&T (MTB), Citizens (CFG) and Travelers (TRV) report Friday, with the banks pre-market \[8\]\[6\]\[7\]. TFC consensus EPS runs $1.05–$1.17 depending on the source \[5\]\[6\]\[14\]. TRV consensus is $7.43 \[15\]. * **Backdrop:** Yesterday's Nasdaq fell 1.88% \[3\]. The 10-year yield is 5.19% \[3\]. **2. Names and ETFs exposed** * Chips and AI: NVDA, MU, AMD, TSM, ASML, MRVL, SOXX/SMH, QQQ. * Regional banks: TFC, RF, MTB, CFG, KRE. * Insurers: TRV. * Rate-sensitive broad market: SPY. * Gold and oil: both elevated, gold at about $4,160 and WTI near $95 \[4\]. **3–4. Levels for the five most exposed** Levels are close-based swing pivots plus the 50-day moving average (SMA50), so they are approximate. |Ticker|Last|Support|Resistance|Read| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |NVDA|$217.23|$216.12 (-0.5%)|$224.45 (+3.3%)|Sitting on support; SMA50 is $223.06| |MU|$931.24|$917.09 (-1.5%)|$990.05 (+6.3%)|Near support; 23% below its high| |TFC|$46.57|$46.24 (-0.7%)|$47.95 (+3.0%)|Near support; 52-week low of $45.57 was hit Oct 14| |TRV|$383.89|$379.49 (-1.2%)|$384.68 (+0.2%)|Pressed against resistance; 52-week high is $395.87| |QQQ|$728.00|$710.64 (-2.4%)|$739.65 (+1.6%)|Mid-range, at the SMA50 of $726.41| **5. Betting markets** * **Fed:** Polymarket gives 70.5% to "no change or hike" at the Oct 27 meeting \[9\]. The Kalshi market on the funds-rate upper bound after the Oct 28 meeting puts 27% on it ending above 4.00% \[9\]. Kalshi gives 85% to a hike by Dec 31 \[9\]. The CME FedWatch figure of 34% for an October hike \[2\] is a different measure from these. * **NVDA:** Polymarket gives 48.5% to up on Friday (volume only $10, so treat as noise). It gives 66.5% to a weekly close above $215 and 6.5% to a Friday close above $225 \[17\]. It gives 49% to NVDA touching $208 during October \[17\]. **6. Flags (short-term)** * **TRV (higher):** It is up 29% in six months \[12\] and sits $0.79 below resistance, so a beat could break out. The risk is that 29% of run-up leaves little room for a miss. * **TFC (higher), the highest-variance name:** It is at a 52-week-low area with a lowered bar, and the first bank prints will set the tone for RF, MTB and CFG. Analyst EPS estimates range from $0.37 to $1.52 \[5\]. A close below $46.24 would turn this into a breakdown. * **NVDA and MU (either way):** Both are testing support after a 20-day decline (NVDA -2.3%, MU -8.3%) \[10\]\[11\]. A hot Warsh headline or import-price print makes a support break likely. A soft print gives room for a rebound toward $224 and $990. MU's +4.7% bounce today shows how violent the swings are \[13\]. * **QQQ and SPY:** These need a Nasdaq move of more than 2.4% to hit support, which is less likely in one session. **Net view:** The strongest bear point is rates: a Fed that hikes (Kalshi 85% by year-end \[9\]) with a 5.19% 10-year pressures both chips and banks. Leaning opportunistic, I'd favour upside in TRV and TFC on earnings, and treat NVDA and MU as tactical bounce candidates only while $216 and $917 hold. A close below either level is the signal to exit. The NVDA prior-close figures in my sources conflict, so verify the intraday levels before trading. **Sources** * \[1\] U.S. Economic Calendar — Web Search * \[2\] Bitcoin & XRP Slip as US PPI Inflation Comes in Hot at 6.3%, Eyes on Fed Kevin Warsh’s Speech — Web Search * \[3\] Nvidia Stock News (Oct 15, 2026): NVDA Falls 3.2% to $221.30 | Gotrade — Web Search * \[4\] 【US Pre-Market】TSMC's Record Profit Fails to Save Chip Stocks as Nvidia, Micron Fall Ahead of US PPI — Web Search * \[5\] Truist Financial Q3 2026 Earnings Preview — October 16, Street Expects $1.05 EPS - Alphastreet — Web Search * \[6\] Daily US Earnings Estimates: 16th October 2026 | Newsquawk — Web Search * \[7\] EarningsCall · Earnings Calendar - 10/16/2026 — Web Search * \[8\] Regions Financial Corp. to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on October 16 — Web Search * \[9\] Prediction markets: Fed rate hike October — Source * \[10\] NVDA Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · NVDA * \[11\] MU Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · MU * \[12\] TRV Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · TRV * \[13\] MU Quote — Live Quote · MU * \[14\] TFC Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · TFC * \[15\] TRV Earnings Calendar — Earnings Calendar · TRV * \[16\] Prediction markets: Warsh — Source * \[17\] Prediction markets: Nvidia — Source

You maybe right! Yeah buys yer stock and ya takes yer chances. No one can predict the future. I think long term AMD is a great company (5+). I just had it reach 10% of my total portfolio and brought it back to 5%. I also own NVDA, TSM, GEV, APPL, etc. To me AMD I bought it years ago for EYPC, and now its changed to an AI stock. So I'm keeping a weary eye on my AI holdings out of caution and a memory of playing the markets in the 2000s. When I owned QCOM, CSCO and RHET and made 100s' of K. Then lost 100s of K. Its not more cautious, I like to think as I still place big bets. Its also learning my lesson to not treat the stock market as a casino.

I was excited to see my ADBE position go +4% while I see the AI stuff plummet. My TSM went down, but I am holding that until I die anyways.