TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Hello everyone, I’m interested in the SK Hynix ADR.
I currently use IBKR to hold SK Hynix GDRs (the European-listed receipt) and have held them for over a year. If an SK Hynix ADR (US-listed) is issued in the future, I plan to convert my GDRs into ADRs and increase my position. Below are my thoughts:
The Context: While the storage market (NAND, HDD, etc.) has a dozen of suppliers like Seagate and Western Digital/SanDisk, the memory market (DRAM, HBM) is essentially a "Big Three" oligopoly consisting of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
1. The Valuation Gap Between SK Hynix and Micron Should Narrow
If an SK Hynix ADR is listed in the US, it should attract investors who currently favor Micron. Specifically, I think the SOX ETF (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) would include SK Hynix ADR—similar to how it holds TSMC’s ADR. This could improve its liquidity. It may 'compete' with Micron for same pool of market money.
Looking at relative P/E ratios, say if SK Hynix were to trade at a valuation closer to the average of its own current P/E and Micron's, there could be roughly 50% upside. (I also suspect Micron’s P/E might take a blow...).
2. ADRs May Not Trade at Discount
I also own TSMC ADR (TSM). For TSM, 5 original shares in Taiwan (2330) equal 1 ADR in the US. Interestingly, historically the ADR often trades at a premium compared to the original shares, maybe it is due to higher demand in the US market.
Currently, the SK Hynix GDR in Europe (HY9H) often trades at a discount to the original Korean shares (000660) historically, which I believe is due to lower liquidity in Europe. My guess is that if US investors are willing to pay a premium for a Taiwanese company like TSMC, they shouldn't "punish" SK Hynix with a discount just because it is a Korean company.
Feel free to point out any mistake.

I’d be happy with a half TSM and NVDA position.

Rumblings that TSM is designing their own lithography, but not within a short period of time.

TSM slowed their manufacturing expansion I think in 2024, but the orders for these machines are often made many years in advance. I read TSM had one of asmls most advanced machines delivered at the end of 2024, but they placed the order in 2018.
Anyway, they *can* afford more machines but expressed concerns awhile ago about future demand for high end chips. They don’t publicly announce orders, but after 2025s performance and continued AI investments globally I think they may be more motivated to purchase machines. TSM profits like $65B a year, an ASML euv machine is less than $400m and generally are in use for 10 years. So affordability isn’t a concern, demand is. Over the long term though chip demand isn’t going to decrease.

I agree, ASML is on the wrong side of the pipeline to really exploit the boom. With intel and Samsung's future in fab being less certain that is pressure on asml while TSM has the keys to the kingdom. With no challenge to their fab dominace they can control the pace of nodes and milk older machines longer

TSM earning next week. If everything turns out good, NVDA might run along with it

TSM with the ‘tsm strength

I’m drunk europoor and I hate TSM, MSTR and NFLX. Lost a shit load of money with these 🫠

!banbet TSM 350 6d

I tell people my portfolio is up like 500% and they think Im a stock market genius. The reality is I have like a dozen losers and Im being carried by ASTS I bought at IPO and then again at $2 and more at 13 snd ny average cost is under 10.
Aint nobody gotta know I invested in hemp based energy drinks and sketchy biotechs and electric uxury cars and weed.
And to be fair I "took profit" on stuff like CCJ, Palantir, TSM and I sure wish I held.

TSM just flatlined

TSM posting great results
INTC pumps 4x more

KEY NEWS:
* *Trump: I am instructing my Representatives to BUY $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS. This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable.*
* SCOTUS opinions released 10AM ET
* NFP print out an hour before market open
MAG7 NEWS:
* AMZN - Stifel reiterates as a buy, One to own this year:
* In eCommerce/Marketplaces, we believe AMZN ($246.29, Buy) is the one to own this year. This has little to do with the core eCommerce business; rather, we’re inclined to believe AWS will show better growth in 2026 as more capacity comes online, and we ponder the potential positive impact custom silicon may have on the stock (perhaps similar to the optimism exhibited with GOOGL in late 2025).
* NVDA - hired Google Cloud marketing VP Alison Wagonfeld as its chief marketing officer.
OTHER COMPANIES:
* INTC - TRUMP: I JUST FINISHED A GREAT MEETING WITH THE VERY SUCCESSFUL INTEL CEO, LIP-BU TAN. THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT IS PROUD TO BE A SHAREHOLDER OF INTEL
* Nuclear sector ripping as META signed nuclear power agreements to support data center demand in the PJM region. .
* OKLO main beneficiary - says Meta can prepay for power tied to a planned 1.2 gigawatt project in Pike County, Ohio, with a first phase targeted for 2030 and expansion through 2034.
* VST - says it signed 20 year PPAs totaling 2.609 gigawatts, including 2.176 gigawatts from Perry and Davis Besse plus 0.433 gigawatts of uprates across Perry, Davis Besse, and Beaver Valley, with deliveries starting in late 2026 and ramping through 2034.
* INSM - pre-announced a much stronger BRINSUPRI launch than the Street expected, with Q4 2025 revenue of $144.6M versus a $67M consensus.The tradeoff is 2026 ARIKAYCE guidance of $450M to $470M, BELOW the $488M consensus, with key reads coming from the ENCORE Phase 3 topline in March or April 2026.
* LTRX - previewed a Drone Reference Platform for UAV OEMs built around Qualcomm’s Dragonwing QCS8550 (Open-Q 8550 µSOM) and positioned as NDAA and TAA compliant.
* GM -expects \~$6B of Q4’25 charges from its North America EV reset: $1.8B non-cash impairments + $4.2B supplier settlements/cancels (cash later), after $1.6B in Q3. Orion shifts to ICE. Also \~$1.1B other Q4 charges (\~$0.5B cash) tied to China JV + legal.
* LUV - JPM upgrades to overweight from neutral, raises PT to 60 from 36. We believe the potential for a $5 EPS guide from Southwest to be attractively probable. Such a guide would handily dwarf the $2.98 consensus for 2026, as well as all prevailing individual forecasts. Granted, the market may not immediately embrace a guide of this magn
* SMR - bofA upgrades to neutral from underperform, lowers PT to 28 from 34. We upgrade NuScale to Neutral and lower our price objective to $28 (from $34). The upgrade is not a change in our long-term view of SMRs, but a recognition that the \~60% share price correction from the post-TVA announcement peak has pulled valuation closer to a level that better reflects (1) the funding and timing mismatch embedded in the ENTRA1 Partnership Milestones Agreement (PMA), (2) higher near-term cash needs, and (3) incremental dilution that accelerates ahead of OEM revenue. Our long-term deployment view remains \~18 GW cumulative through 2040, but the near-term cash cadence and equity overhang keep risk/reward balanced."
* NFLX - Goldman lowers PT to 112 from 130 ahead of earnings. we preview current industry data and address key investor debates for Netflix. With a focus on NFLX's standalone operations, we expect NFLX’s upcoming earnings report to reflect a solid end to 2025 as management continues to execute well against its core areas of strategic focus: 1) original and returning original content as a driver of user engagement and growth; 2) scaling of its offering of live entertainment (recent success of the NFL Christmas Day slate); 3) scaling its offering of gaming content; and 4) continued progress on both the tech stack and advertiser adoption of its digital ad offering.
* ARRY - TD COwen raises to Buy from hold, raises PT to 12 from 10. "We are upgrading Array to Buy on a tactical basis, driven by improving execution, low investor expectations, and a valuation gap versus peers, with a clear catalyst in the July 4th safe-harbor deadline. While market share losses and policy uncertainty weighed on the stock, we see improved operations and a quality backlog supporting strong demand. Our $12 price target reflects \~9.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA and \~12.5x 2027E EPS."
* SEDG - TD Cowen ugprades SEDG to Buy from hold, raise PT to 38 from 34. "SEDG is executing its turnaround with the launch of Nexis and Single SKU supporting margins and market share gains. Ramping U.S. manufacturing and exports drive 45X and improves the competitive position in Europe. An expected Investor Day in the spring should provide mid-term margin guidance likely above consensus. Our $38 price target is based on 13x 2027E EV/EBITDA and 19x 2027E EPS."
* WM - UBS upgrades to buy from neutral, raises PT to 260 from 225. We upgrade WM to Buy from Neutral and raise our price target to $260 from $225. We anticipate that WM’s resumption of share repurchases (suspended since 1Q24) will result in a \~2.5x increase in capital returned to shareholders and likely drive a relative valuation re-rating in 2026. The company announced completion of major growth investments, integrated Stericycle into WM Healthcare Solutions, and reduced leverage to 3.0x from 3.6x in 4Q24, setting up a 30%+ year-over-year free cash flow increase in 2026. Following previous such investment cycles, WM's relative valuation has increased by up to 20% (see figure 1). Our earnings estimates are \~in line with consensus, and we expect a re-rating to be driven by investor preference for capital returns compared to investment in MSW."
* ABNB - Barclays upgrades ABNB to equal weight from underweight, raises PT to 120 from 107. Today, we see diminished downside risks to shares and a few potential upside drivers to room night growth (e.g., reserve now pay later, hotels, and the 2026 World Cup) that could position Airbnb to deliver best-in-class room night growth among the scaled online travel peer set, while margins may be reaching a new relative floor for a time. Despite these potential positives, we do temper our optimism a bit, as Airbnb is still largely a monoline business (alternative accommodations) and hasn't proven its ability to scale in adjacencies, even as it has had HotelsTonight since April 2019 and gone through a few iterations of its experiences initiative since 2016.
* GNRC - Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral, lowers PT to 199 from 215. "GNRC has a variety of unique catalysts ahead with the C&I diesel genset opportunity (a meaningful estimate catalyst), reduction of the residential clean energy EBITDA drag (directionally in its control), cyclical green shoots in core C&I, and bottomed core HSB dynamics (2H26 easy comps/normalization potential). Combined with weak trading action (\~-25% off 2H25 peak vs. S&P \~+7%), reasonable valuation levels (\~12-13x NTM EBITDA vs. \~10-15x range since 2022), March’s analyst day, and muted sentiment, we see compelling risk/reward emerging beyond the 4Q print and are upgrading to Outperform."
* LUNR \_ Stifel downgrades to hold from buy, raises PT to 20 from 18/ "As the newly appointed NASA Administrator, Jared Isaacman, settles into his new role and mandate from President Trump to develop an America First space policy that will not only return humans to the Moon but also build a sustained presence on the lunar surface, Stifel believes an announcement on the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contract is imminent. We also believe that an unpredictable political climate, within and outside of NASA, might introduce new uncertainty on whether the most qualified bid actually wins the competition. With LUNR’s stock now above our prior price target and our increased nervousness around the LTV award, we see more balanced risk and reward around the upcoming award announcement." SNDK - is reportedly pitching 1 to 3 year NAND supply deals that require 100% cash prepay, basically pushing price and inventory risk onto customers as shortages and pricing tighten through 2026.
* TSM - TSMC said Q4 revenue was $33.05B, topping the \~$32.73B estimate and up \~20% YoY.
* JPMorgan says DRAM and HBM demand still looks like it outruns supply past 2026. JPM expects supply-demand tightness to keep underpinning pricing strength, with avg DRAM pricing +\~60% YoY in CY26.
OTHER NEWS:
MIzuho semiconductor outlook: Their top 2026 sectors are

1) AI accelerators and WFE
2) optical (AI interconnect, 800G/1.6T)
3) memory (DRAM/NAND) with “supercycle” pricing strength
Top picks NVDA, LITE, AVGO, CHP

They are slowly moving up the range. First we were range bound between 6800 and 6900. In order for us to range they need to pump it and then dump next week to stay 6900 to 7000. Hence we pump today regardless of what happens and then we dump when TSM earnings come out because it is priced in.

ASML up 5% on massive TSM revenue, TSM up 0.5% 🤔

If you already hold IONQ, I’d split it into buckets: big incumbents with real quantum budgets like GOOGL, IBM, MSFT and AMZN, plus “pick-and-shovel” semi names like ASML, TSM, MU and LRCX that benefit if compute keeps scaling regardless. Pure plays like IONQ, RGTI and QBTS can work, but size them like venture bets because timelines and dilution are real.

I know there’s lots of jokes in here, but can someone give me a reasonable take on what will actually happen if China invades Taiwan? My opinion is they make sure no damage happens to the TSMC factory(s) and after taking over, direct all outputs to China mainland. If they were to allow chips to US, I’d imagine at a super steep price, maybe 3x more than current prices. That also raises the question, why wouldn’t the Taiwanese just self sabotage by flipping the checker board off the table and give Xi the finger by blowing up the factories themselves? Everyone wants to dog on INTC, but it really is a national security matter at this stage to ensure they’re a strong and functional company. If there’s no chips, Mag 7 goes bust and the rest of the SP500 goes into a Covid like crisis until state side chip foundries can get things going like TSM has got

This is NOT about an NVDA, this is about a rotation. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, CRWD, AMD, TSM, MU ETC…… all down. There is a rotation at play. For what reason? I have no idea but defense stocks surging do to the Orange Buffalo doing the opposite of what he ran on. And there’s a job report tomorrow so maybe a hedge on the stocks up the most.

TSM and NVIDIA are such shitty fucking stocks. Absolute dog shit companies. If you ever “invested” in them you’ve probably lost all your money 💯🚀💎

In short, I’m very bullish on AI, automation (like driverless cars, warehouse automation, robotics, military automation, etc), and humanoid robotics. Humanoid robotics is very early and most companies are private so you won’t find many investing opportunities but luckily the three themes are connected. So I’m investing in AI like everyone else - NVDA, TSM, the mag 7 aka. Hyperscalers, etc. most stop there. They invest in QQQ or QQQM and say they’re investing in AI; and they are. But that’s just the picks and shovels and obvious choices. If you look at ARKQs thesis in the ark team’s own words, ARKQ is supposed to capture some of the winners of automation and robotics. It’s not chipmakers like NVDA and AMD, it’s the companies who will actually benefit from this new tech. So, if you look at the holdings of ARKQ, you’ll notice there’s very very little overlap in any other generic AI/tech fund. It’s not all NVDA, AMNZ, MSFT, and GOOGL. So it offers unique exposure to a different part of the AI and automation pyramid so to speak.
As for ARKVX, it’s investing in private companies which 1, is a diversifier and 2, has many companies I’m also bullish on, particularly in the robotics side I mentioned. Figure AI for one, apptronic, etc. also AI companies like open AI (chat gpt), xAI, groq (not X’s grok), databricks, etc. and of course it also holds SpaceX as its largest holding - and will benefit greatly when SpaceX goes public in 2026. As well as Neuralink which is a moonshot bet but interesting nonetheless.
So in short: ark funds like ARKQ and ARKVX offer unique exposure you really don’t get in ANY other etf. It’s a whole different methodology than what other ETFs offer. I still invest in the more generic AI plays, but this is another layer