TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

I started a Human vs AI portfolio challenge on youtube (look up Bridgeway Research).
AI is kicking butt so far with NVDA, MU, VRT and TSM. All picks this sub hates. Lol.

Everyone is chasing NVDA/TSM/AMKR for CoWoS and packaging; ASYS is the sub‑300M name selling the ovens and scrubbers feeding those lines.
Packaging and substrate capacity is still the bottleneck; TSMC and OSATs say advanced packaging is sold out into all of 2026
# What ASYS Actually Is ?
Amtech Systems (ASYS) makes backend fab gear and consumables: reflow ovens for advanced packaging, wafer scrubbing and cleaning, and lapping/polishing gear plus slurries for silicon and silicon‑carbide substrates.
Their stack sits in two key spots in the AI/EV/edge chain:
**Advanced packaging / assembly**
BTU “Pyramax” reflow ovens used in high‑volume advanced packaging lines and by OSATs for chip module assembly
These are used for advanced semiconductor packages and electronic assemblies, including AI GPUs and advanced automotive electronics
**Substrate & wafer processing (Si + SiC)**
OnTrak double‑sided wafer scrubbers for SiC and other compound semiconductors, plus CMP, lapping and polishing systems and consumables for silicon, SiC, sapphire and photonics/optics.
Focus is explicitly on silicon carbide and silicon power devices, digital and analog, power packages and advanced semiconductor packages.
Officially, their own corporate profile now leads with: *“equipment, consumables and services for AI semiconductor device packaging and advanced wafer substrate fabrication… for applications such as* ***AI GPUs*** *and advanced automotive electronics.”*
# Why This Lines Up With Today’s Bottlenecks ?

**1. AI packaging is the new constraint**
The industry has been clear for two years: AI is no longer limited by wafer starts; it’s limited by **advanced packaging and HBM/substrate capacity**
TSMC’s CoWoS capacity has been booked out by Nvidia/AMD and hyperscalers, and shortages are now projected to persist into all of 2026 despite big capacity adds.
Even as CoWoS expands, the bottleneck has pushed downstream into **substrates, HBM, and backend equipment** – the exact zone where high‑throughput reflow ovens and related thermal tools live.
Amtech literally markets itself now as enabling **AI semiconductor device packaging**, providing advanced packaging and electronics assembly equipment used in AI GPU modules.
A 2026 article describing the AI supply chain turmoil explicitly points at packaging capacity (CoWoS etc.) and substrate/interposer output as the constraints, with OSATs scrambling to ramp advanced assembly. That’s the demand backdrop for ASYS’s Pyramax and related lines.
**2. SiC power & EV/DC fast‑charge wave**
On the power side, SiC devices are ripping:
SiC power devices for EV fast charging alone are projected to grow from around 3 billion USD in 2024 at almost 20% CAGR into the 2030s.
Broader SiC power devices across computing and renewables are expected to grow at over 30% CAGR through 2030.
SiC is now central to high‑power DC fast chargers, UPS, high‑efficiency PSUs and grid‑scale systems.
Amtech booked its 20th new OnTrak double‑sided wafer scrubbing system specifically into **SiC manufacturing**, with installs across Europe, Asia and North America. Management itself calls Entrepix (the OnTrak line) an “early mover into the SiC market.”
That ties ASYS to the **power device + EV charging + data‑center power electronics** capex cycle without having to pick a single SiC device vendor!!
**3. Edge AI & automotive: packaging at the edge**
Edge AI devices (phones, PCs, autos, robotics, surveillance) are projected to grow to 2 billion+ units by 2030 at roughly high‑teens CAGR. Automotive edge AI accelerators alone are estimated to grow from about 1.9 billion USD in 2024 to over 10 billion by 2030, a 33% CAGR.
As AI moves to the edge, you don’t always get bleeding‑edge nodes; you get **heterogeneous integration, 2.5D/3D stacking and packaging tricks** to mix RF, sensors and accelerators. That increases demand for:
High‑precision reflow and thermal profiles for complex multi‑die packages.
Substrate and wafer processing for specialty materials (SiC, sapphire, optics), where Amtech already supplies lapping/polishing and CMP consumables.

ASYS is basically a geared play on **“AI everywhere” = more advanced packaging + more specialty substrates.**

**Company‑Specific Proof It’s Actually Pivoting to AI/Substrates**
This isn’t just someone slapping “AI” in a deck:
**Advanced packaging repeat order:** In 2023, Amtech announced a multi‑unit Pyramax order (\~1.8 M USD) from a leading OSAT for advanced packaging, bringing this one customer’s installed base to over 300 units. Pyramax is literally described as the oven of choice for OSAT advanced packaging because of its thermal control and throughput.
**SiC cleaning traction:** The 20th new OnTrak double‑sided scrubber for SiC applications was booked with a repeat customer; the install base spans Europe and North America and targets 100–200 mm compound semiconductor wafers.
**Corporate re‑branding:** Corporate materials now headline “enabling AI semiconductor device packaging and advanced wafer substrate fabrication” and highlight AI GPUs and advanced automotive electronics as key applications.
**Recent investor messaging:** In a 2025 investor conference preview, the CEO explicitly frames the thesis as growing demand for machinery supporting AI applications (reflow ovens for advanced packaging), benefits from structural cost cuts, and a path to more consistent profitability.
**Q4 2025 beat driven by AI:** A 2025 Q4 earnings recap notes EPS of 0.10 vs a forecast loss of −0.06 and revenue of 19.8 M vs guidance, explicitly attributing strength to AI infrastructure demand; AI‑related equipment made up over 30% of thermal processing revenue, and margins improved on a semi‑fabless model.
That’s the narrative thread: ASYS shrank, restructured, and is now aligning messaging and product emphasis squarely around **AI packaging and SiC substrates**.
**The Numbers: Ugly Backward, Optionality Forward**
* **Market cap:** about **239M** with a share price around **16.60**.
* **Top line:** revenue peaked at roughly **113.3M** in FY 2023, then fell to **101.2M** in 2024 and **79.4M** in 2025, which is a **−9.3%** CAGR from 2022 to 2025.
* **Margins:** gross margin has held in the low‑ to mid‑30s: about **37%** in 2022, **31%** in 2023, **36%** in 2024 and **34%** in 2025, despite the revenue slide.
* **Profitability:** FY 2025 net income was about **−30.3M**, a net margin of roughly **−38%**. Losses are real – this is a turnaround, not a steady compounder.
**Forward expectations:**
* Street has revenues roughly flat at **80M** in FY 2026 and growing to **95M** by 2027, implying around **9.4%** CAGR off the depressed 2025 base.
* On that base, the stock trades at roughly **3.0×** FY 2025 sales **(3.01 price‑to‑sales)**.
* Balance sheet wise, cash at FY 2025 was about **17.9M** vs total liabilities around **39.5M**, implying net cash of about **−21.6M** – effectively net debt, but modest versus market cap.
So from a pure fundamentals lens, ASYS is: small, cyclic, **coming off a nasty earnings hole**, but with mid‑30s gross margins and a forward growth re‑acceleration if AI packaging / SiC orders materialize.

You can't find a better opportunity right now to get a **10-bagger** on a company that finds itself at the hottest theme with a tiny market cap and tiny float without the need to dilute the shareholders

AAOI, TSM, MSFT. KTOS, DELL are on watchlsit

Sandisk MU TSM AMD nvidia The whole pipeline. Hard to miss buying any link in the chain the next few years. The real question will be who is there in 10 - 20 years. Who will drop off quickest when it’s over. Who has more to offer besides one trick pony. The capex being laid out by Google and friends could probably develop their own chips tail to tape at some point. Is sandisk dropping 50% anytime soon? Hard to imagine. But Quantum compute innovations and the way they use memory could blow a hole in the pipeline at any random point from materials all the way through memory storage, at some point. Certain companies will shift and adapt and some will drop 70-80% and never recover.

Seeing how the markets have shifted over the last few decades, right now so many companies stay private much, much deeper into their development, or even never go private, yes, it's unfair.
Why? Think of it like this: What you've seen now is the AI companies that are pure infrastructure, more or less, from TSM, to NVDA, etc, and some services like the hyperscalers. What do you think will happen when we get the actual outputs? The companies that use AI? Right now we're in 2002, not 2026, to give an internet analogy, and sooooo many of these companies which are gonna grow like never before, will be private, no doubt.

i sold TSM at $250...
avg cost was $80.... i thought i was a genius
FML

I am pretty new to this, I have invested very little into stocks maybe $200 in total over the last 4 years or so. I am trying to do my research as I look to get more involved in the stock market, specifically into ETFs. The very little I have invested has all been in individual stocks.
After doing some research I have put some money into VOO and a little into SMH as one of the individual stocks I was invested in was TSM which did well over the couple of years I held it. In total I have $400 between the two, the majority being in VOO. I would like to add $50-$100 per week into these holdings but also would like any suggestions from people with more experience in this field.
I am 24 and looking more long term holdings rather than something with super high volatility. I understand that I need to do my own research but would appreciate anyone willing to help steer me in the right direction. TIA

TSM

Fair. My WDC dipped on OpenAI reporting today, I was down as much as 2.7k (bought 1 hour early, or I would've made 3k today).
I am in meet positive now, but once it climbs a bit, I'll put in a stop loss for profit just in case. That said, what do you think of it as a long hold?
I want to capitalize on AI capex without picking an AI winner (though probably Google) by holding suppliers instead. I also have a bit of MU and TSM. I've held Nvidia, but it's been too horizonal despite massive spending.

If not for a .pdf in charge of the white house, TSM would've hit 500 today.

I bought SEMI instead of TSM because of china risk.

Nvidia, TSM, Lily, Google, Meta
AI is real but revenue generation isn't and they are the few who are doing it and are locked into moats

People are upset cause AMD,Marell and TSM captured all of the upside in the last month, while Nvidia was a hot steaming pile of dog shit and barely went back to the last all time high before dumping. So its a huge underperformer dog turd that captures no upside but all the downside.

A good portfolio to start with. If you think nvidia looks promising you might what to check out TSM and do a bit of research

I like FRDM a lot, I genuinely appreciate the kinda goofy "freedom weighting", and if you run a regression on it in PV it comes out as a quasi-factor fund itself, but it's still redundant with AVGV. For most of its life it performed not much differently from any other EM fund. It's been the beneficiary in the past 18 months of having outsize positions in Samsung, Hynix, and TSM. That's really it.
Momo is different, since Avantis screens for momentum but doesn't specifically target it I think there's an argument to use momo funds alongside AVGV. But FMTM is kinda fomoing too. It looks really impressive so far but I'd want to see a longer track record. VFMO is my favorite US momentum fund.

Looking at selling some TSM bull put spreads - maybe 5/24 at a 20 delta.
It's in in a uptrend with nice IV atm, wanting to see it head down towards the 20 SMA before opening a spread, it's had a nice little jog recently.
Will see where it opens today.

I guess it depends on what horizon you are thinking of when you say long-term. If truly long term (10+ years), my recommendation is to DCA (and DRIP) QQQ/QQQM and/or SPY/VOO (and perhaps VXUS for non-US exposure). It gives you broad exposure to the biggest companies and will grow over time.
If looking for individual stocks, my favorites are NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, ASML, TSM and META. All are mega caps and have a strong moat, with amazing fundamentals. Again - recommend DCA/DRIP instead of timing the market with these as well.

Saw an [estimate](https://www.benzinga.com/money/tsm-stock-price-prediction) that TSM could reach $857 by 2030.
Looking at the 5Y chart, the run has already been pretty insane, but the argument is that AI + chip demand is still early.
Feels like one of those where it keeps compounding and this ends up looking obvious or expectations are getting way ahead of reality
Curious where people stand on this?

No. Thats not what im saying.
Im saying...
*the press release concerning Qualcomm and OpenAI was nothing more than an announcement "we are going to work together".. it does not affect the fundamentals of how qualcomm earns money ...and yet for bo reason the stock initially rose 15% premarket because of the word "AI".... That is an indication of an AI bubble..where if you stick "AI" on something, dumb money will bid it up...
You know decades ago, when Qualcomm eas unstoppable, anytime a company mentioned "CDMA", the stock would go up a lot too, under the hype of the digital cell phone...Those companies have gone under....
There are clear benefacyors of AI..but right now, companies that put AI into press releases causes the stock to go up for no other reason... That is by far a bubble....
The fundamentals of what affects Qualcomm's business is more impacted by Smartphone/tablet and lesser extend portable compute devices of its snapdragon suite. They are are a supplier of chips for edge computing devices .
Their business is heavily tied to mobile phone, portable compute ,and more recently automotive.
They are not a material provider of chils for infratructure and data centers like AMD and Nvidia.
Lots of things can go work with their business and every other chip business. The biggest risk for everyone is supply chain issues becusse mspr everyone almost exclusiviely counts on TSM to manufacture their processors. Almost everyone.... Except intel...

SOXX and SOXQ are both cheaper and less concentrated. SOXQ is quite new, but if you compare SMH and SOXX back to 2001, they were virtually identical until 2023. SMH did really well from 2023 to 2025 because of its huge concentration in Nvidia (and to a lesser extent TSM), and how well it did, but that's in the past. It could have easily gone a different way and there's no telling how it will go in the future.
I don't think it would make much of a difference either way mid-long term, but all else being equal cheaper and less concentrated is better.