TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Just like Google is top tier retarded for switching from Samsung to TSMC? China is never going to invade Taiwan so long as TSMC owns 70% of the world’s foundry revenue (as of Q32025). <5NM they’re like 95% plus. And they’re the first company in full production for 2NM while Samsung just hit 50% yield this month? TSMCs already won the foundry war, Intel is hanging on by a thread with TSMC and the US government supporting them. Not including the fact China was just approved for H200s they desperately needed for their own AI models… manufactured by TSM. I won’t even get into the details of how an invasion wouldn’t happen and why it’s so different than Ukraine and Palestine. China can continue postering with those war games of theirs. The last “real” threat from China was ~96/97 when they shot missiles over Taiwan, not just boating around in contested waters shooting missiles “near” Taiwan
Name me a company who has switched away from TSMC as a foundry partner because of product inefficiencies or lack of tech advancement.
Completely baseless, fear mongering comment with little to not research or understanding of how chips / fab industry works

Yes but as others have said ASML Is an equipment maker (for lithography) and LRCX is an equipment maker (for etch) where MU is a chip maker much like TSM. It's apples to oranges but they both grow on fruit trees. It's better in my opinion to compare the chip makers to the chip makers and the tool makers to the tool makers because they're fundamentally different parts of the chain and function differently. You are correct though they're all a part of the same bubble if and when it pops.

It's 20% of my holdings and I think that's as far as I'll go with it.  Any particular analysis links (or your own DD) that I might have missed?  I've been trying to scour Reddit and Substack for info on them, TSM, and the major semicaps.  

yes but if your intent is to add diversification outside of the mag 7 concentration in the sp500 or tsm funds, look at large cap value funds, small cap funds, reits, intl etc , some other good large cap funds not heavy in mag 7 is FNDX SCHD VTV VIG VDIG TDVG DGRO DFLV AVLV . note its never necessary to do anything outside of the TSM/sp500 but on a behavior level of investing its good to keep you invested and keep contributing

Supply constraints means something about Foundry!! Perhaps TSM maybe kind enough to offer some assistance there - in exchange for some kind military aid?

Clearly it's working for you. Nice one.
I've added TSM along with SOXX etf cause it contains the US semiconductor companies as in almost same % where others have huge bets on Nvidia or TSM. Plus it's not much volatile than the others.

At the end of the day, their fab still sucks relative to TSM and their chips aren’t as competitive as AMD. This is the same problems they had 2 years ago, but a much higher stock price now and a whole lot of hopium and not a lot of reality.

I would recommend caution here. TSM reported really early this Q, and so much of the positive read through could be priced in. So while it may be a good report, there’s probably less upside. Just my 2c. 

I own INTC for one reason: China. Okay, two reasons: China, Taiwan. Three reasons? China, Taiwan, TSM.
I see the stock as a hedge against China moving on Taiwan in the next few years. Imagine it’s 2027 and the PLA invasion force is attacking the Taiwan beaches . . . think how much INTC will go up. Now, move that to 2032 and INTC might not go up, since TSM will have built enough fab capacity in the US. The US government seems to see INTC similarly.
In the meantime, 4Q25 looks about like what I’d expect. INTC is ramping 18A, still early and the yield is poor, hurting margins and capacity, so despite strong demand for both PCs and x86 servers, 4Q only beat by a little and 1Q was guided weaker. Foundry is losing lots of money, since it is only building production wafers for INTC itself the net is around zero. It is a long slow turnaround, INTC is in inning 5 maybe.
I figure I win if they get to the 9th inning, or if China moves on Taiwan. I can’t say which I think is more likely, but I think the combined probability of either one is (subjectively) 65%+.

Sort of, they still need wafers currently form TSMC, they can use Intel instead of TSM and boom reshoring works.

Is TSM a mining company?
Yeah I’m looking at precious metals rising as a possibly indicator of a possible incoming recession. So I’m on standby, ready to start shorting this year or next. I also bought some LMT when russia invaded Ukraine. And will hold that depending on technicals and geopolitics of course.
As far as day trades go, semiconductors is what my eyes would be on for that. SOXS and SOXL.

Sure, but only TSM and Samsung are able to produce 4nm processes and only in Taiwan and South Korea as I understand it.
I suspect everyone else is probably somewhere between 8 and 40nm processes so they’re going to need to produce more.
Also, I don’t think any of these guys are getting into memory production which appears is going to be a bottle neck for the next decade or so.

Another week of running ***Short Put Verticals*** aka ***Bull Put Credit Spreads***.
Improved over the previous week by $ 1000 over last week despite the turbulence!
Here is my simple trading plan.
I am now entering these trades ***30-45 DTE*** and choosing a ***.25 to .35 delta short put and 1 to 2 strikes lower for the long put.***
I set a stop/loss order for ***150% of the premium received*** and a ***BTC order for 30% of premium received.***
I currently have 49 open spreads and have closed 173 trades for the month.
Here are results for the individual tickers month to date.
|Ticker|Profit +/-|
|:-|:-|
||
|AMZN|$4,036|
|ASTS|$3,928|
|CRCL|$2,032|
|MU|$1,793|
|FIX|$1,134|
|GOOGL|$1,058|
|OKLO|$1,034|
|COST|$806|
|HUT|$688|
|RKLB|$430|
|JPM|$204|
|LMT|$165|
|SPX|$140|
|UNH|$120|
|INTC|$119|
|MP|$61|
|SLV|$60|
|MSOS|$15|
|ETN|$14|
|SMCI|$10|
|NFLX|($55)|
|TSM|($60)|
|HOOD|($560)|
|NBIS|($666)|
|RDDT|($2,923)|
|TOTALS|$13,581|

TSM

Strongly disagree with limited ai upside if you think that you don't have a strong concept of how datacenters work. I have positions in amd so I agree there but with 50% 3 year cagr baseline for the industry as stated by TSM there is plenty of room for Intel to eat in that space even if they aren't the lead. They themselves state as much as well just that they can't execute.

AI selloff? NVDA TSM AMD MU look elevated to me, compared to SAAS.

TSM, you've been going sideways for 5 hours. i'm about to take my ball (0DTEs) and go home

TSM uuuu

Whats your point, nvidia so capacity constrained it wont even be making geforce cards for 6 months. TSM cant meet demand, intel cant meet demand, no one can meet demand. This is as dumb as it gets, we will see massive capex spending not profitability increases.

Agreed. Foundry problems? Nothing that a gunpoint deal with TSM / ASML can't fix 😉