TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Yes, I watch 5 - 10 stocks that have a low probability of going bankrupt. Normal trades include: WMT, MU, AMZN, META, AZO, TSM.
They all have consistent patterns and great cash flows. If my investment goes down 5%, there is a 99% chance it will go back up in a week or month.

Another week of running Short Put Verticals aka Bull Put Credit Spreads.
Very pleased to end the month with $ 13,883 in profit despite the last week kicking my butt!!
Here is my simple trading plan.
I am now entering these trades 30-45 DTE and choosing a .25 to .35 delta short put and 1 to 2 strikes lower for the long put.
I set a stop/loss order for 150% of the premium received and a BTC order for 30% of premium received.
I currently have 15 open spreads and have closed 221 trades for the month.
Here are results for the individual tickers month to date.
|Ticker|Profit +/-|
|:-|:-|
|AMZN|$4,460|
|ASTS|$4,262|
|MU|$2,196|
|CRCL|$2,088|
|GOOGL|$2,047|
|FIX|$1,763|
|OKLO|$1,084|
|HUT|$983|
|COST|$629|
|RKLB|$430|
|SNDK|$295|
|SPX|$264|
|XLK|$260|
|MP|$225|
|JPM|$204|
|MSFT|$170|
|LMT|$165|
|UNH|$120|
|INTC|$119|
|AGI|$110|
|GS|$100|
|NVDA|$95|
|META|$85|
|SIVR|$70|
|MSOS|$15|
|ETN|$14|
|SMCI|$10|
|NFLX|($55)|
|OPEN|($270)|
|TSM|($397)|
|HOOD|($560)|
|NBIS|($666)|
|RIVN|($955)|
|SLV|($1,550)|
|RDDT|($3,922)|
|Totals|$13,883|

Same trying to keep it as simple as possible too. DFAX seems to compliment AVDV. Small Cap Value US (DFSV, AVUV, VIOV, etc) seems like a tougher commitment. May be alone in that opinion though. Like that DFAX has TSM & Samsung.

TSM weekly game plan – key demand and supply levels

I bought calls & shares last summer. My 2 September 2026 calls are up 1000%. I sold 1 call to capture the profit and felt regret right after. So on Friday it came down so much, I bought another call for June 2027. Meta, Sandisk, TSM, ASML all told you that AI spending keeps going up this year. MU sold out this year. I hope to capture some more profit and then get rid of all calls around mid year. For 2026 the demand is still insane. Not so sure about 2027.

PLTR, ASML, TSM, MU, NVDA, META, GOOG

I agree and it’s very strange that people say “20% intl” is fine, but not 60%.
Investing is personal, and it’s okay to not be perfectly aligned with market cap weight 
I’m 60% exUS, due to valuations and hedging US specific career and social security risk
I’m also over 50% SCV in my US slice, so I’m only 20% or so allocated to US TSM.
I’m ok with not perfectly tracking a VT or VTI benchmark …I’m a strong believer that valuations do indeed matter (eventually)

If you are younger, I'd consider dropping broader investments and adding NVDA or TSM

It's obnoxious when people hear what wasn't said or read what wasn't written.

Now... I'd ask what the fuck I said I KNOW more looking at their numbers(since their numbers are private, but even Altman isn't trying to spin this as a company he has any plan on how it'll make money beyond build it and then ask it).

I said I WOULD ask that... but I know you can point it out to me, because at no point did I say that... unless of course you're talking about the numbers that Altman and other insiders have openly spoken about.

He's what's indisputable.
1-They're spending substantially more money than... anyone save for MAYBE Musk on his LLM.
2-They had a lead and that lead has evaporated and they're either still holding on to a tenuous grasp OR they've fallen behind Gemini(which isn't using NVDA which may be part of the impetus here to push companies that do), Anthropic...
3-Anthropic has Amazon backing it, Gemini has... well, a 4T+ company backing it... and ChatGTP has several different companies, chief among them, Oracle... which is down \~165 dollars a share, in large part due to concerns over ChatGTP's debt structure.

4-THIS is objectively what circular financing LOOKS like.

Now... I understand you've got your 10-12T predictions, but if you get triggered because I express a little trepidation as a shareholder that's getting a whopping 700 dollars a quarter in dividends(while getting about 7X that on TSM despite holding 1/14th the number of shares... well, too bad.

Sorry, I've got concerns about investing in a company while their CEO issues "Code Red" due to concerns over it losing it's place to Gemini(that's from an actual Memo... but I'm sure you... could have looked that up).

I’ve held and DCA into NVDA GOOG AMZN APPL TSM for the past 3 years (Feb 23) and been pretty happy with my choices. I understand the risk but these are products I use everyday and I’m pretty good at emotionally detaching myself from certain investments that I truly believe. The saying time in the market beats timing the market has worked for me.

You have too many etfs. You have the first 2 as core etf that should be enough. However, may be 1 or 2 more as satellites. My preference is SMH instead of SOXQ. Semi sector should go on more than 10 years and beyond, especially for ASML, TSM and NVDA. Even Tesla needs its own orbital chips for his SpaceX.

The interesting thing is that Google isn’t in on the circlejerk at all. They make their own chips. Have their own frontier model (arguably more advanced than any other lab). And a real case for it improving their existing revenue generating products even if chatbots themselves aren’t profitable —- ie solidifying search moat via AIOverviews
IF Google can surpass Nvidia, and is the #1 company when Nvidia / OpenAI circle jerk pops, maybe the whole market doesn’t blow up
But if Nvidia is number 1 and pops, it’ll be bad for everyone. Google included
Anyway. I’m all in GOOG baby 🚀 I liquidated my portfolio and bet it all on g in December 2024 when Gemini 1206 and VEO2 came out. They were severely discounted due to “AI risk” but with those it was clear they were at the bleeding edge, and from there, the TPU compute advantage just seems like a real moat.
Like.. given that w 1206 their models were equal to Claude and gpt at the time, past that it’s mostly gonna come down to who has the most compute. and they have WAY more and will continue to grow the gap each year cuz custom silicon
From first principles. I don’t see how anyone can catch up unless Google fumbles hard or something truly crazy happens like China seizing TSM

I bought so much stuff today—shares and calls like a mf’er! NVDA, TSM, RKLB, AMPX,NXE, and as a junior high school janitor, I am not a rich man😂. I do sincerely hope this turns around in the next month or two (or next week would be even better). 🙏

Can you please buy TSM? Thank you.