TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

NVDA, AVGO, WDC, STX, TSM, BE, WULF

Green tomorrow and maybe flat Wednesday.
Just in time for TSM to rail semis a new asshole after earnings.

I took at INTC's chart. In my non-TA view, it has been going sideways a bit, but I would expect it get over it, we have big world events that are causing confusion, and go higher.
I am heavy in to semi-conductors, AI, tech, etc. The ride may be wild but I cannot see them failing. That is my assumption. I trade in MU, Tesla (crazy), PLTR, AMD, SMH, TSM, SOXX, AVGO, NVDA and have a large long in FSELX a semi mutual fund. For at least the next 5 years I don't expect any loss of progress, just bumps in the road as the market gets scared easily. That's my two cents worth.

True!
I tried to give two different examples of companies in the middle of the boom, but obviously, their valuations and situations are very different. But if you look at TSM from a P/FCF perspective, it looks quite expensive.

TSM

TSM's ADRs traded at a premium--often a pretty big one!--and still do today.
Unless there's some way to convert Korean shares or Euro GDRs into the US ADRs, I imagine they'll trade at a consistent premium as well.

earnings season starts slowly this week with ASML and TSM and ramps into the end of this month with hyperscalers like META and GOGGLE. the markets are dumping it is clear sign that big guys want to buy cheap and then retail will drive the rally. Mango is in on the plan , watch how narratives change in August and everything rips. TLDR: buy the effin dip!

Yes. ~60% share of HBM. TSM makes ~7 of every 10 chips. 

Wait so it’s like TSM of memory plays?

$SKHY next move like $TSM. Trillion market cap.
It has \~60% of HBM-memory market dominance around global AI -Agent push by memory demands

Mentioning TSM and SPCX together seems like a very odd pairing.
One is a space exploration company with a satellite internet business, a launch business, a social media segment, and a frontier AI lab. It just IPO'd and trades at >100x sales and is currently unprofitable on a GAAP basis.
The other manufactures semiconductors. It trades at a forward P/E in the mid twenties and routinely grows >20%.
These are not comparable, either by business line or price.

I dumped QQQ back in June. I don’t have it in me to care about AI and all this shit anymore. I split my growth holds into FMTM, SPMO, and QGRW. I’ll let them fight this battle on my behalf, but I’m not chasing tech. These valuations are crazy. And TSM just announced ONE TRILLION in revenue and the stock is down. 😂 What are we even doin here, folks? Nobody should report earnings anymore, just show videos of AI piloting drones so we can see green.

This is what value investors all eventually end up doing. Value investing are for has-been Buffett wannabees that constantly underperform because they don't respect the market's opinions on valuations. "Good companies" and "Don't overpay" are the opposite of each other. A company might have been good when it was expensive. When a company becomes cheap, it's not you "not overpaying," it's the market saying the company isn't good anymore due to increased competition or other factors that affect the fundamentals.
Respect the market, don't fall for the value investing trap. Terry Smith, has finally realized this, and joined the AI boom by buying TSM.

3-4 big players (hyperscalers) are the bulk of the demand right now for HBM. Investors are pissed about their stocks going to the toilet due to capex, and they are literally going into debt and diluting shares, and going into negative cash flow.
All it takes is for one of them to slow capex, and the whole trade will unravel.
I still bullish some semi’s (Nvidia, TSM) and AI. I’m no bear, but I see too much complacency about this trade. When I was bullish Micron, few people were.

On one side, it looks like we're in an **expensive market**. Just look at the **Shiller PE** and the **regular PE** relative to their historical averages. You can also see we're near the top of the credit cycle, with **credit spreads about as tight as they've been**. People look really greedy: they're piling into names like **SPCX** and companies like TSM that trade at high PEs and **very high price-to-FCF.**
On the other side, people still seem prudent. Stocks like ORCL, META, and MSFT are going *down* because the market is paying attention to things like **financial leverage** and **crazy capex**. So you can't really say **the market has completely lost its connection to reality and fundamentals**.
I think the problem is much deeper than that. The real issue is that almost every investor treats profit growth as a given. **Nobody stops to ask who is actually paying for all these tokens**. A lot of that demand is coming from unprofitable startups like Base44, Lovable, and similar companies with no moat. So what happens when (or if) the **money from private credit, private equity, and VCs dries up**? These startups have no profit and no moat, which will make them very hard to sell or take public.
And I'm not even getting into the potential oversupply of data centers.
So maybe the market isn't completely irrational right now, but is it running on some very optimistic assumptions?

I think realistically only a fraction of the data centers are going to be built out. I own AMD/TSM/NVDA and I'm short SPCX (via inverse ETFs) despite it's aggressiveness in standing up Colossus, and I'm considering taking up small positions against neoclouds.

Maybe you shouldve bought TSM and AVGO?

TSM dumping despite earnings. Logical land.

Energy is just 2% of index.
Iran war will not stop AI adoption globally
$SMH $MU $NVDA $SNDK $STX $AMAT $LRCX $TSM $AVGO earnings still strong
Semi is new energy of digital economy.
No one stop using smartphones, streaming, Social media for Iran-Oil swing.
$QQQ $SPY ER-spike soon

Going to need ASML and TSM to have blowout earnings to save my INTC calls