TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

No but may add a little google and TSM

I’ve known about MU and MRVL since like 2022 hell I rode up AVGO and TSM a good bit too. Just me personally I think it’s way overextended by both MA and RSI like these are in extreme overbought territory. I’m bullish on a lot of thing though like for me personally energy infrastructure like BE, UUUU, FCX, GEV and then outside stuff too complete unrelated to AI. However I know for a fact at even banks they are working to compress memory usage for software to lower margin cost and dependency. You don’t think that’s happening all across major software companies? They’ll just keep paying out the ass and on top of that every single memory company wins? Someone WILL come out on top but do I believe nonstop pump? Absolutely not

Hard money: gold and bitcoin. Sovereign’s continue to buy up gold because they don’t trust US treasuries anymore. With the debt, continued spending and overall chaos coming out the US I’m sure that will continue. Bitcoin only because of the verifiable hard cap. It’s faced like 5+ drawdowns of 50% or more and has always reached new highs. The damn thing won’t die. Also, see Blackrock and Morgan Stanley. BTC isn’t going anywhere.
Non-US Equities: See point above about other countries no longer trusting the US. New trade deals and alliances are being developed right now.
AI Infrastructure: I’m only smart enough to know that $TSM is the only foundry that can manufacture the most high-tech chips. They also have to buy their equipment from $ASML. $SMH covers this for you.
AI developers: I don’t know enough about individual AI companies. I’m going to throw some “fun” money at Anthropic and Databricks after the IPO. The problem is they’re all going public after hitting valuations that would land them in the top of of the S&P500 immediately. THIS, imo, is a huge issue and I wonder about US market returns going forward. If the most innovative new companies go public so late, we won’t get to benefit from a new Google or Tesla anymore

>big incumbents with real quantum budgets like GOOGL, IBM, MSFT and AMZN, plus “pick-and-shovel” semi names like ASML, TSM, MU and LRCX that benefit if compute keeps scaling regardless.
Oh great Swami, anymore picks?

The market isn't looking at trailing eps anymore. Everything is forward looking 2-4 years and INTC has 4X to grow to match TSM. That's what's being priced in - that and the fact the US Govt is an investor and can help a little...

Parking every extra dollar into TSM and GOOG who will continue to fly.

https://preview.redd.it/uy6lw6nlak0h1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=4573479bd76e3d434da7e31c92b08a55af4716a3
4 TYPES OF OSAT EXPOSURE

**1. Advanced Packaging OSAT**
$ASX
$AMKR
$TSM

**2. Memory Packaging OSAT**

Powertech Technology
SK Hynix
JCET Group

**3. Test Focused OSAT**

$TER
Advantest
King Yuan Electronics

4. Optical Packaging OSAT
$LITE
$COHR
$FN

You said TSM is the “last” Semi you’d short ! It’s the first, after the APPLE/INTC News. 🤷🏽‍♂️

This week this feels like it also applies to TSM. I do realize it has had a recent rally but it does feel like it hasn't ramped up as much comparatively speaking.

Totally agree with your analysis on the possibility of invasion, but you may be the only person I have ever seen say that TSM is not pricing in a risk premium for a Chinese invasion. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree here friend. 🍻

Check out EUV. "Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF"
CIEN/LITE/COHR/GLW/etc coupled with TSM/ASMML/LRCX/AMAT/KLAC/etc.
Only its fourth day (but over 200k volume after three hours) but neither the connectivity or semiconductor equipment stocks have had a focused ETF before.

If TSM rebounds, it could be really strong.

It's not a bubble, its a technological boom. FYI, memory price increased in April, and just again in May. MU has ER next month, so lets see how they guide. But anyone saying they are priced to perfection is ridiclous. Same people were saying the samething with NVDA in 2023. Ai demand and use is very real. Claude is incredible.
What happens if MU raises gudiance, and beats EPS again, and again. This cycle is going last a lot longer than previous cycle. With TSM reporting being fulled booked until 2029, and demand creeping into 2030 is very real. Also, TSM reports monthly in Taiwan. Their may report was phenemonal. If you think cycle has peaked you will see it first in TSM monthly reports.

Because the market still prices in TSM for cheaper than other chip plays specifically for that reason. I'm not saying the risk is high or low, I'm saying the price of the stock still reflects it. We are having a different discussion.

i actually like both ASTS and VST for the reasons you mentioned. ASTS is the higher upside “if this works globally” play, while VST feels like the more stable infrastructure bet tied directly to AI power demand.
if I had to pick one high-conviction play for Q3 2026 though, I’d probably lean toward a “picks and shovels” angle instead of pure hype, companies tied to energy, semis, or data infrastructure rather than speculative AI apps. Stuff like VST, QCOM, or even TSM still make a lot of sense to me because they profit regardless of which AI company wins.
also i think a lot of people are underestimating how massive the energy/grid story could become over the next few years. AI demand is exploding, but the power infrastructure needed to support it is still catching up
and im in a trading Discord with 50k+ members where people share setups, long-term plays, breakdowns, and market discussions daily if anyone wants to check it out too: https://discord.gg/tV47E6F8bn

That's the way to do it. Invest in speculative stocks during a bull run and scale out and then the put the money back into SPY. Wait for the next SPY correction to rotate from SPY back into speculative stocks, rinse repeat.
I'm waiting for TSM to hit like $500 so I can cash an almost 400% profit and rotate that money back into SPY

This was the conclusion of his paid service. He really hate chasing rallies but said after talking to Amazon he thinks it's not too late.
I'm not a Cramer hater and in fact made lots of money riding his early Nvidia calls. He's also been right on GEV, LLY, Apple, etc. But he definitely missed the memory trade.
His other big call was TSM. He said TSM missing some business from Apple was actually a *good* thing, because now they can use that capacity for other people (newer customers) who they can charge *more*.
It's fine if you guys think you'll be the first one to make the "inverse Cramer" joke here. But please along with the jokes add in some of your own analysis I'm actually curious if you think this call indicates the top or just the beginning.

buy TSM

Another nice pull back on TSM - I’ll sell another put thank you very much

Are all semis rallying except for TSM because of their developing independence to TSM?