TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

i took profit on my TSM 300 P exp 4/10. made about 80 percent, but i can't shake the feeling that this was a blunder. i have a spy put going for tomorrow, but i should have reloaded TSM puts on the late rally.

I've bought more MU and TSM over the past week. Admittedly, I'm also holding a 3x Short ETF (SQQQ) and bought UCO (oil).
I'm playing both sides so that I will always come out on top.

$TSM

[$TSM](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/tsm?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=DeepFuckingValue&utm_term=TSM&utm_content=variant_1774160571343_i1ter) becomes the only real helium-adjacent play while Seoul and Taipei fight over constrained fab capacity for the next half-decade.

You get this a lot with ADRs, when foreign companies list on US stock exchanges they tend to have different tickers on different exchanges. In this case TSM is the New York Stock Exchange ticker, TSMW.F is the over the counter ticker.

I think that storage (WDC, STX, etc.) are good long term holds, but the only thing I don't like is the valuation; they've been on such a run. For storage, I've stuck to SNDK just b/c the valuation is better, but they've all been dogs lately.
I love TSM, but again the valuation and the global threat it could face from China have made me cautious

RedditAdvice : The street is just thinking OIL price yet the LNG price affects industries across the rest of the world too, and N.A. LNG is much cheaper than everywhere else, EU and ASIA is more than double the U.S. price, the "energy spread" acts as a structural subsidy giving U.S. based industry a clear cost advantage to others. Historically it has been as much as 5x higher. **Chemicals & Fertilizers, Heavy Manufacturing -i**nexpensive gas-fired electricity for domestic investment in steel, glass, and plastic-resin production for exports and culling the overseas competition both domestically and abroad. TheEnergyWar will continue till morale improves. I speculate Russia, Turkey, Iran and Houthis with Chinese tech support for this new Axis of Opportunity. This is volatility off the charts brewing. $EONR $TSLVF is all I own. Am sidelined from everything else now yet see major upside in XLF next week along with Energy sectors, XLU is not favoured as much as many companies are tied to AI and that could be indirectly and directly affected from Israel (INTC) and Taiwan (TSM). It's a stock pickers market now, no indices for me, thankyou. AI&I

There are all sorts of things that COULD happen. From a helium supply standpoint, it could mean other suppliers (as well as the US) bring on additional capacity. It doesn't mean AI chip production will decrease. AI chips will be the LAST chips TSM stops manufacturing. The US alone produces sufficient helium to ensure a sufficient supply for those chips.

I would be interested to hear from someone in tech how revolutionary they think Intel's 18A chip is and how much of a threat that kind of innovation is to TSM.

Yeah exactly this. I’m well ahead, but I bought NVDA forever ago, TSLA as well, and got in TSM at 7 bucks lol. Holding those and trimming over time has been very profitable, but the rest of my portfolio is just okay. Idk if I’ll ever be able to do that again. I’m also not chasing it. I’m just trying to do smart consistent things at this point.

I don't think the infrastructure demand is necessarily as real as you think if AI demand fades. It's hard to justify spending 150 billion dollars a year on something that provides negative ROI on the premise that it might pay start paying off in 2030-2035. To some extent, and they have even explicitly stated this, they see the risk of not investing in AI as a greater risk as investing in AI, but if AI continues not to provide real ROI for actual customers, this could change.
This example cuts both ways, but it took computers practically two decades between adoption and actually making companies any ROI.
I own TSM and ASML, but this possibility really concerns me.

America is the world's' new LNG capital and that's with only 3% of global supply destroyed in ME, we can do better. LPG, CONDENSATES and HELIUM are also impacted from the infrastructure/energy war. Don't think this trade is old news as these will be multi year huge industry headwinds. Looking at a monthly chart will give the perspective.
These companies are strategically positioned to capture the "bonanza", -in AI and my opinion. These are multi year moves just starting so I imagine DCAing is the way to go as they all have jumped initially. It is my best safety trade idea yet. Better than Utilities powering AI. ***Semiconductor*** related industries are in the danger zone now for various Grey Swan reasons like supply hubs in Israel (INTC) and Taiwan (TSM that will affect everyone) and Helium production destruction.
\-and **this:**
* **Known Knowns:** Things we know we know.
* **Known Unknowns:** Things we know we do not know.
* **Unknown Unknowns:** Things we do not know we don't know.
* [**Unknown Knowns**](https://www.google.com/search?q=Unknown+Knowns&oq=unknown+knowns&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgDEAAYgAQyCQgAEEUYORiABDIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDINCAgQABiGAxiABBiKBTIKCAkQABiiBBiJBdIBCjExNjk2ajBqMTWoAgiwAgHxBfDZAyLE6VIn&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&ved=2ahUKEwjSldaipLGTAxWfETQIHRqnPK8QgK4QegQIAxAG)**:** Things you think you know, or that you know but are not aware you know—often interpreted as disregarded knowledge, subconscious knowledge, or disavowed beliefs. *-another infamous Donald , February 12, 2002*
the Benefiters :
less Established - NEXT TEN
Established - GLNG LNG KMI WMB TRP VET ARX.tsx
and of course the Big Guys, cvx cop xom
\- the Refiners are also the new gold and DCAing into them would be good also. I have two spec plays and nothing else at the moment, TSLVF and EONR. They both have experienced management in their field and bonanzas in the ground.

TSM for sure. They are building a semiconductor manufacturing center in the US. Protecting them from any future conflict.

Back for another week of running Short Put Verticals aka Bull Put Credit Spreads.
After a great start to the week, Friday's drop forced me to roll a few position resulting in negative profits for the week.
MU was my big winner netting $1527 in profit.
The low delta strategy has been pretty resilient but the bottom better hit soon!!
I have been basically day trading these spreads closing at 20% profit due to the market instability.
79 spreads were closed or rolled.
Here are my rules for trading credit spreads:
* **All SVP's will be opened 35 to 49 DTE**
* **Short put strike chosen at .20 delta or lower**
* **Long put chosen to achieve a net delta of .07**
* ***All the following criteria must be met prior to opening trade***
* **Analysis of spread's Max Profit must show 80% or more probability for Maximum Profit**
* **Analysis of spread's Break Even must show 80%or more probability for Any Profit**
* **Analysis of Max Loss must show 10% or less Probability for Maximum Loss**
* **ROI for premium collected (premium divided by collateral required for spread) must be 10% or more**
Below is totals of tickers from this week:
|Ticker|Profit +/-|
|:-|:-|
||
|MU|$1,527|
|SNDK|$930|
|AMZN|$244|
|TSM|$121|
|GOOGL|$110|
|ADBE|$93|
|LULU|$93|
|MSFT|$83|
|SPY|$75|
|CRCL|$73|
|XOP|$62|
|NVDA|$57|
|EWY|$43|
|ORCL|$40|
|AMD|$39|
|SMH|$37|
|RTX|$31|
|MSTR|$23|
|SOXL|$17|
|NBIS|$13|
|ANET|$11|
|TSLA|($163)|
|XLF|($200)|
|IWM|($324)|
|USAR|($445)|
|AAPL|($536)|
|META|($1,313)|
|DIA|($1,749)|
|Totals|($1,008)|
||

I guess it all depends on if this is just a short dip or a 15-20% correction. If it is a more decent correction which offers real buying opportunities, then:
I managed to go about 25% cash near the top-ish so I've got myself a bit of a shopping list, but 2 names in particular come to mind: Safran, and TSM. Safran is one I used to own, but came to believe was overvalued (turns out the market agrees, now), it is one of Chris Hohn's most concentrated positions, a man I've learned a lot from through his long form interviews on moats. Safran's main source of earnings is their single aisle aircraft engines, which they co-operate with GE on. The thing is this: They're using the razor blade model, meaning no profits are made for years with initial sales, only once the maintenances begin do the produce huge profits. This makes it, in my view, the widest moat on earth, since if you want to compete with them it means you have to A. enter into an incredibly CAPEX heavy business to begin with (not easy) and then also survive 10-20 years in a business where the lifespan of an engine is maybe 40-ish years. They've struck this amazing balance in my view where it is incredibly hard to enter, but they also have enough power over their customers to where they can get a good margin with those contracts. This is the kind of business I'd plan to keep for 10-20 years, I just need a good entry. We're now heading into the peak years of FCF from their latest engine, which is what, 8-9 years old now?
TSM is fairly easy to understand, too; lower valuation than your NVDAs, AVGOs, etc, but also very high EPS growth (25% or higher projected CAGR) meaning a PEG of basically 1. Is there a taiwan risk? Yeah, sure, which is why the multiple is a bit lower, but I'm fine with a 6-7% position in the company because if this company stops operating, the world stops spinning anyway, more or less, lol.
Other honorable mentions which I'll also buy but don't feel like going into as much detail on: ANET, BN, MELI, MAMA.

Don’t get me wrong, but my TSM shares are doing so good!

TSM better buy tbh

I ain't looking. I'm still DCAing all my solid stocks (all the way down) but I'm definitely NOT interested in anything new to consider. My solids? AAPL, BRK.B, COST, GOOGL, IAU, NVDA, RKLB, TSLA & TSM. These, too, shall rise again!

Yeah, like TSM is going great but everything else sucks

Yuck. I’m not against individual foreign stocks (TSM, ASML, PBR, BTI, RIO, etc.), but most of the indexes have been losers over the long-term since the foreign stock markets are generally far less capitalized and there are more clunker companies weighing down the indexes.
If the whole idea is that foreign companies will outperform US companies by nature of a weakening dollar, then it feels like the individual foreign dividend stocks, gold, US farmland, or even foreign farmland (Uruguay, Argentina, etc.) would be better plays.