TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Thats the real problem bad names are easy to sell. Good names make you argue with yourself. AMD & TSM still have real reasons to own them, so the old gain cant be the reason to bail. New money needs todays case. Existing money needs todays risk check. If the business still earns the seat, keep it sized like an investment. If the position only stays because the cost basis feels pretty, thats not discipline. Thats nostalgia wearing a profit badge.

Isn't the deal Lisa Su was pursuing a new one? In other words, TSM is still the main supplier. I don't think it will affect AMD too much in that case.

The hardest part is that AMD and TSM actually still have solid reasons to own them today, so you can't just use the gains as an excuse to bail and feel smart about it.

This is the value investing subreddit so many here will not like the stocks I buy, but I have a very well researched and informed thesis and have stuck to it for years and profited handsomely. These are the percentage allocations for new money I put into my stocks. I never sell unless my thesis is proven wrong or something fundamentally changed with the company. I buy every single Friday morning regardless of price.
My space portfolio is relatively simple. For tech, it is a bit more nuanced. I am trying to capture full stack AI infrastructure (ie, power, liquid cooling, circuitry, transformers, chip foundries, chip architecture, etc etc etc). Every company plays a role. I will direct money to DRAM that would have gone towards SYM or IONQ if I feel I’m getting a deal when I buy.
Space
* RKLB: 50.0%
* PL: 20.0%
* ASTS: 20.0%
* FLY: 5.0%
* BKSY: 5.0%
___
Tech
* DRAM: 12.5-17.5%*
* NVDA: 7.5%
* TSM: 7.5%
* ASML: 7.5%
* AVGO: 7.5%
* GOOGL: 5.0%
* AMZN: 5.0%
* NBIS: 5.0%
* ARM: 5.0%
* ANET: 5.0%
* VRT: 5.0%
* CEG: 5.0%
* MRVL: 2.5%
* COHR: 2.5%
* APH: 2.5%
* ETN: 2.5%
* MPWR: 2.5%
* AMAT: 2.5%
* TER: 2.5%
* SYM: 0-2.5%*
* IONQ: 0-2.5%*
___
Tech Organized by Sector
* Compute, Foundry & Architecture (20.0%)
* NVDA: 7.5%
* TSM: 7.5%
* ARM: 5.0%
* Networking & Connectivity (20.0%)
* AVGO: 7.5%
* ANET: 5.0%
* MRVL: 2.5%
* COHR: 2.5%
* APH: 2.5%
* Providers & Dedicated AI Cloud (15.0%)
* GOOGL: 5.0%
* AMZN: 5.0%
* NBIS: 5.0%
* Infrastructure, Power & Utilities (15.0%)
* VRT: 5.0%
* CEG: 5.0%
* ETN: 2.5%
* MPWR: 2.5%
* Semiconductor Equipment & Testing (12.5%)
* ASML: 7.5%
* AMAT: 2.5%
* TER: 2.5%
* Memory & Storage (12.5-17.5%)
* DRAM: 12.5-17.5%*
* Emerging Tech: Robotics & Quantum (0-5.0%)
* SYM: 0-2.5%*
* IONQ: 0-2.5%*

anything cery technical that requires infrastructure. TSM would probably be the cleanest example

TSM does great hindsight analysis.

Interestingly, it's exactly the same conversation that I have been having with myself over the last few weeks. I made a good investment in SMH 02/2024 and have held it all the while making multiple semi buys. It's not an easy compare with the rise of the semi so relatively new but one thing that stands out is the volatility over 250 days of the ETF averages mid 30 percentile while the stocks are twice that with NVDA and TSM being the best performers at about 5 & 10 percentage points higher. So the heartache factor is less with the ETF. The performance is mixed but again, the age of the real growth hampers the analysis. In the end, for today, I am going to satisfy myself that I have done my DD and the result it that I am selling the 1/2 of my positions that underperforming SMH and put the proceeds in SMH. I don't know that this is helpful to the general conversation, but I can say the conversation focused my attention sufficiently to work thru several spreadsheets and analysis of actual performance; whether past performance leads to future results remains to be seen. IMHO, not one company has a golden egg, and it comes down to how their performance is evaluated by the market. The ETF is a nice way to pick up broad exposure and after all, I'm not as smart as those managing these funds.

Got bored and bought some MU, BE, TSM, SOXX, and NVDA. This just feels like some regular bullshit that’ll bounce by eow

Honestly I am newbie. I wish I could understand how to short because SNDK is dumping. TSM is dumping

Pulled 3 months of data on the entire AI supply chain (66 trading days, Feb 4 to May 6) and the thing has already split in half.
Took 19 tickers and sorted them into 5 layers from upstream to downstream: equipment, foundry, memory, design, hyperscalers. Ran correlations between them. Results were not what i expected.
Upstream moves as one block. Semi cap equipment stocks basically trade like a basket, intra-layer correlation 0.86, doesn't really matter which one you pick. TSM and NVDA also sit at 0.70, which makes sense since TSMC capacity ramping equals NVDA shipping more cards.
But the further down you go, the more things decouple. Design vs hyperscaler correlation is only 0.33, the weakest pair on the entire grid.
A few specifics: AMD vs MSFT sits at 0.23. AMD is up 71% over this window, MSFT actually down 2%. NVDA vs GOOGL is 0.24. Both up but on completely different timing (GOOGL +16%, NVDA only +12%). NVDA vs AMZN is just 0.30. AWS is one of NVDA's biggest customers and the stocks are basically moving independently.
Lining up the actual returns makes it even more obvious. Winners are all on the infrastructure side: INTC +131%, ARM +122%, AMD +71%, MU +52%. Losers are all on the application and cloud side: MSFT -2%, META -13%, TSLA -6%.
The old story was that hyperscaler AI capex eventually flows back into their own share prices. But over the past 3 months the market is voting the opposite way, money is moving upstream and downstream is not following.
What i haven't worked out: if AI spending isn't producing excess returns for the spenders themselves, how long can this capex cycle actually run? Or has the market already split AI into two separate stories, where upstream picks and shovels gets paid as orders come in, and downstream gold miners have to prove monetization first, and that proof hasn't shown up yet?
Anyone holding MSFT, META or GOOGL, is your thesis still working here?

My beloved $TSM 😞

I dca $TSM in the 400s. You’ll be Aii

Probably you need to ask yourself how risky do you want to go. Split the 10k into defensive, balanced and ventures. Mix between these buckets should be based on your risk appetite.
Defensive should be the infrastructure layer (ie NVDA/TSM etc). Balanced would be cloud layer (ie GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL). Ventures would be companies that you think will be successful in deploying AI in the coming years (eg software companies that you think is great but beaten down, PLTR, cybersecurity, etc)
If in doubt, buying the S&P 500 index or Nasdaq index would also work cos the biggest portion of it would relate to AI anyway. This is the no thinking required sleep easy at night approach.

Pulled 3 months of data on the entire AI supply chain (66 trading days, Feb 4 to May 6) and the thing has already split in half.
Took 19 tickers and sorted them into 5 layers from upstream to downstream: equipment, foundry, memory, design, hyperscalers. Ran correlations between them. Results were not what i expected.
Upstream moves as one block. Semi cap equipment stocks basically trade like a basket, intra-layer correlation 0.86, doesn't really matter which one you pick. TSM and NVDA also sit at 0.70, which makes sense since TSMC capacity ramping equals NVDA shipping more cards.
But the further down you go, the more things decouple. Design vs hyperscaler correlation is only 0.33, the weakest pair on the entire grid.
A few specifics: AMD vs MSFT sits at 0.23. AMD is up 71% over this window, MSFT actually down 2%. NVDA vs GOOGL is 0.24. Both up but on completely different timing (GOOGL +16%, NVDA only +12%). NVDA vs AMZN is just 0.30. AWS is one of NVDA's biggest customers and the stocks are basically moving independently.
Lining up the actual returns makes it even more obvious. Winners are all on the infrastructure side: INTC +131%, ARM +122%, AMD +71%, MU +52%. Losers are all on the application and cloud side: MSFT -2%, META -13%, TSLA -6%.
The old story was that hyperscaler AI capex eventually flows back into their own share prices. But over the past 3 months the market is voting the opposite way, money is moving upstream and downstream is not following.
What i haven't worked out: if AI spending isn't producing excess returns for the spenders themselves, how long can this capex cycle actually run? Or has the market already split AI into two separate stories, where upstream picks and shovels gets paid as orders come in, and downstream gold miners have to prove monetization first, and that proof hasn't shown up yet?
Anyone holding MSFT, META or GOOGL, is your thesis still working here?

TSM was my first stock pick too. Bought it in the same week when buffet sold when it was $90. Still holding

TSM was one of my first stocks when I got into trading. Sold it at 42$ a share for what I thought was big profit. I regret that now.

This is what intel did before falling behind and couldn't catch up because of all the patent advantage TSM built up over the years. + they had Apple and other large tech companies fronting the CAPEX for the FAB build out's.
That whole landscapes going to change once 1.4NM hits, and they are fighting the next gen chip after, as NA-EUV will have absolutely maxed out on what it can do and can't advance any further... and here comes the same scenario INTC was in, TSM is now years behind in knowledge with high na-evu lithography machines, and INTC has now piled up a 3 year advantage with patents. TSM won't fail as a company, but INTC sure as hell are being given a great chance to catch up here and potentially over take as the lead chip builder.

[Leopold Aschenbrenner](https://www.linkedin.com/in/leopold-aschenbrenner/). You can read more about him [here](https://phemex.com/academy/who-is-leopold-aschenbrenner). He wrote [Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/) back in 2024, saying how TSM/NVDA was undervalued, then created his own hedge fund based on his paper. Bought semis, energy plays, neo clouds, and memory early on and I'm sure his fund has grown quite a bit. Not sure why he has [puts on all the AI chipmakers](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2045724/000204572426000008/xslForm13F_X02/salp13fq1xml.xml). 🙅🏻

Pretty much all tech stocks have done insanely well. I bought AMD at around $78 back in 2021, TSM around $106, and of course VTI at about $178, which I used to buy regularly.
The problem is I was younger back then and didn’t have much money to invest. Now I’ve finally saved up a decent amount and want to keep investing, but outside of VTI I honestly don’t know what to buy anymore.
Even though VTI still has strong fundamentals and I believe in it long term, the current price feels crazy compared to when I first started buying it a few years ago. Same with a lot of the big tech names.
Should I just keep dollar-cost averaging and put more money into the stocks I already believe in whenever the market pulls back? Or should I start looking for smaller companies that haven’t already gone up so much?
I honestly don’t know what the right move is in this market.

The quantum companies currently do not turn a profit. You have to be ok with being venture capital if you want to go this route. Very different than buying another share of Google nvda amd TSM or meta, all of which turn insane profits and grow profits quarterly.