TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Do you still like TSM? I think it's one of the safer AI plays out there. Whether it's ASIC's or GPU's TSM wins either way. I've been buying anytime it goes near $400. In 2-3 years I think it can be $800+.

Fair callout. That’s definitely something to consider if OP still wants a two horse tech run. It’s still 80% US, but within the top 10 you have TSM, ASML, Samsung, and SK.

I sold some amounts of my semi's (NVDA AVGO ASML LRCX TER) to put into SMH (and even into VOO and QQQM as semi's runup has taken too much of my overall portfolio). Over the years I had been tempted to buy TSM AMD AMAT KLAC MRVL MU; figured it might just be best to go with the ETF.
Sometimes sector based ETF's are watered down with lots of underperformers. But the nice thing about SMH is with such a limited pool of stocks, the large majority are 2-3 decades leaders in their niche. It's predominantly proven winners, and low on underperformers and more speculative plays.

Fundamentals are still good for all 3, but the chart for AVGO is in a downtrend. Sectors and individual stocks within sectors move in cycles. NVDA was deemed as “too expensive” for the last year even though their PEG ratio is below 1 and lower than all the mega caps. Didn’t make sense. MRVL has a narrative atm of being a threat to AVGO’s ASIC revenue. It’s probably a bit overblown but the street loves the story and sees MRVL as undervalued compared to its competitors. MRVL spent years building a base between roughly $60-$120 before breaking out this year. I first bought the stock in 2022/2023 for around $65. I sold it back in ‘24 before its first run to $120, but then came back to it this spring just under $80. This is why trading individual stocks is so hard. You literally do need to keep track of this stuff almost every single day over years to be able to see the best opportunities before others do. NVDA is currently in ascendancy and is closely aligned with MRVL so those are the two I would be buying.
On another note, if you want some foundry exposure and missed TSM, I would recommend buying GFS and UMC. INTC is also a no brainer at these levels. I like CBRS too. However, my main focus in the chip sector is power semis. They had a great run in the spring but got sold off hard. Power semis and the 800v DC theme will be a huge opportunity in the coming years. Then quantum will likely come next.
You can’t go wrong buying AVGO long term, but I think you will have better gains in the short term with NVDA and MRVL. AVGO will have its moment when OAI Jalapeño chip starts its mass production.

Nice. From there I swing trade individual stocks. MSFT, AMD, TSM, NVDA, ANZN, etc. Stuff that I don't mind being stuck with if there's a sudden market correction. Profits always get dumped into the ETFs above. This method has been working great so far, and beating just going all in on VOO/VTI. I'm not that close to retirement, but I like adding VYM and/or SCHG as time goes on.

The only thing I’d sell NVIDIA for is TSM and even then they’re kinda tethered anyway

One thing worth considering is that a lot of the space stocks that sold off before SPCX were low market cap (RKLB, ASTS, PL, FLY, LUNR, etc). Compare that to AI and you’re talking about companies worth a trillion or hundreds of billions (SKHY, MU, ASML, TSM). A lot of space stocks are also way more speculative and in their infancy, while AI stocks are highly profitable and accelerating. It’s apples and oranges. I’d be lying if I told you for sure they wouldn’t sell off, but I doubt it.

Recent yrs. reality is that NVDA and TSM do move with quite a high degree of correlation, which I guess makes sense on the basis of NVDA’s leadership and size, but, as TSMC grows and services more and more chip makers I would think that correlation should weaken, but it hasn’t much. But if you’re looking to move $ from NVDA to TSMC, now could be as good a time as any. NDVA is \~3% off its all time high, while TSMC is 12% off its all time high and has appreciated +5% in the last wk. (so last week would perhaps have been better, but whatever). TSMC will grind higher. It will in tandem with NVDA, but it will also move on their own earnings and revenue growth, it will respond to AVGO, it also responds to their own monthly reporting of net sales and yoy growth. It also delivers a 1% div. yield which is about 1.5x NVDA’s, 0.42%,m. Neither are much, but if you’re holding for a few years, it’s better than a kick in the head.
But… it’s also worth considering this: Broadcom (AVGO) just delivered strong earnings. Their growth rate remains intact, yet AVGO is about 40% off its all time high. There’s clearly a mean reversion rerating in the pipeline in Q4/2027 and if they eventually meet and exceed their ATH, there’s 50%+ upside. (For NVDA to achieve that the market would have to find $2.75 trillion. I’d call that pretty unlikely).

NVDA, TSM, GOOG, SKHY

What are your top 5 holdings? I'll go first.
1. MELI
2. GOOGL
3. LLY
4. GE
5. NFLX / META / NU / JPM / TSM / RYCEY / NOW (depending on the day, each at 4 - 4.5%)

Is it immodest of me to say I’m up biggly today on TSM calls?

How's your experience of trading TSM? the premiums took a cliff!

I think you could be underestimating the pricing power that companies like TSM and ASML will continue to have. They won't be the biggest winners, but substantial winners unless maybe AI gets orders of magnitude more efficient.

BTC TSM 10/2 385p +50% (2 days)
BTO SPY 0DTE 771/773c @ $0.33 (already sold one and letting the others ride a bit)

Hi,
New to this community, so, hopefully will be able to provide some good insights to potential trades that follows the below strategy.
The MACD RSI Strategy is simple, ***IF*** you follow the rules!
On the ***DAY*** chart.
Your selected stock/forex needs to be either overbought (**>70**) or oversold (**<30**) on the RSI scale within the last couple of days.
The earnings date needs to be at least 14 days out.
Once the above is good, wait for the MACD to cross in the same direction as the RSI, either both bullish or both bearish.
If you go for a trade, set your stop loss (SL) either above the most recent highest high in the case of a short, or below the most recent lowest low in the case of a long.
Let the trade sit until the RSI crosses the 50 mark. When it does close the trade.
This can take a day or several weeks depending on the stock, obviously forex moves faster! 😄
This is not financial advice, and you accept the risk should you enter a trade.
**New potentials will be posted here on a daily basis**, if they appear.
The stocks/tickers currently being monitor are:
AAA, AAL, AAPL, ABBV, ABT, ACN, ADBE, ADI, AEM, AMAT, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, ANET, APH, APP, ARKK, ARM, ASML, AUDUSD=X, AVGO, AXP, AZN, B, BA, BABA, BAC, BBVA, BHP, BKNG, BLK, BMO, BP, BSX, BTI, BUD, BZ=F, C, CAT, CB, CCZ, CEG, CMCSA, CME, COF, COIN, COP, COST, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, CVX, DE, DHR, DIA, DIS, DRIP, DUK, ELF, ENB, ETN, EURUSD=X, FCX, GBPUSD=X, GDX, GE, GEV, GILD, GLW, GOOG, GOOGL, GS, GSK, HCA, HD, HDB, HON, HSBC, HUM, HUT, HWM, IBM, IBN, INTC, INTU, ISRG, IWM, JNJ, JPM, KHC, KLAC, KO, LIN, LLY, LMT, LOW, LRCX, LUV, LVS, MA, MCD, MCK, MDT, META, MFG, MO, MRK, MS, MSFT, MU, MUFG, NEE, NEM, NFLX, NOC, NOW, NUGT, NVDA, NVO, NVS, ORCL, PANW, PBR, PDD, PEP, PFE, PG, PGR, PH, PLD, PLTR, PM, PYPL, QCOM, QQQ, RIO, RIOT, ROKU, RTX, RY, SAN, SAP, SBUX, SCCO, SCHW, SHEL, SHOP, SLB, SLV, SMCI, SMFG, SMH, SNY, SO, SONY, SOXL, SPGI, SPOT, SPY, SQQQ, SYK, T, TBB, TD, TGT, TJX, TM, TMO, TMUS, TNA, TQQQ, TSLA, TSM, TTE, TXN, TZA, UBER, UBS, UL, UNH, UNP, USDCAD=X, USDCHF=X, USDJPY=X, V, VRTX, VZ, WELL, WFC, WMT, XHB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY, XOM, \^FTSE, \^NDX
In the image there are three potential shorts and a long, CME, COP, NEE & T.
Have a great weekend.

I like TSM

What happened to TSM?

Before you buy any stock or ETF you should look at the fundamentals of the company (revenue, debt, earnings, etc) and then think about what unthinking future of that company and the industry they are in.
I’ve owned Nvidia in the past. And it appears their short term future (maybe a year) is good. The reason I got out was two points. 1) is there an AI bubble. I think so, but I’m not sure. 2) Nvidia makes the fastest chips right now. But in my long investment career, I’ve seen chips change dramatically. About 10 years ago Intel was #1, they were followed by AMD, the TSM and now Nvidia.
In the chip world, everyone is trying to build a better mousetrap (faster, better, cheaper) chip. While Nvidia holds that position now, I’m not sure how long they will hold it. Take a look at Intel in 2021 it reached $57. It dropped below $20 in 2025. It took until early 2026 to get back and exceed the 2021 price.

I bought SK Hynix last year because every CEO and tech analyst was screaming from the rooftop that there was going to be a serious memory shortage and to me the price didn't seem to reflect that. I also guessed that the extent of the AI infrastructure cap ex would exceed expectations, but not with high confidence. I continue to hold that belief going forward, but not with high confidence.
I'm concerned about SK Hynix losing market share though and as someone without genuine expertise, it's a little difficult for me to discern why, if the trend will continue, and to what extent it's priced in. I believe SK Hynix has gone from something like 64% share of HBM and 39% share of DRAM last year to 250% and 25% respectively this year.
I'm tempted to move my money from SK Hynix into my other two main non index fund holdings, TSM and ASML. With those two, while it would be beneficial to have it, I don't feel like I need the technical expertise to evaluate if they will gain or lose market share, I can trust in their moat and reputation for high level execution.
I get that memory demand will likely remain high, and that at a PE of 6, SK Hynix is already pricing in a lot of risk/downturn, but everyone knows demand will remain high. Demand being high also in general tends to attract competition, a sector can be booming and those within the sector can perform quite poorly. While memory fabrication does have a moat, we have seen this start to play out. CXMT for instance has over doubled wafer production since the release of the first version of Chat GPT.

Full ported TSM/IREN calls 🚀🚀🚀