TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

The government backstop started this run but they never should have been backdropped. Intel is a terribly managed company and will never catch up to TSM.

I got in on TSM very early but ASML is one I missed out on, I would love to see a *big* dip

I got in on TSM early, one of my best performers!

I ran through this thread and and recorded each stock mentioned, 81 in total. Then I asked Grok to analyze the list and rate them each for their growth potential in the next 5 years. Include the business model and growth catalysts. I'll be using it to realign my "growth first" accounts accordingly. The top 5 in order were
1 MSFT $466.70 Software giant focused on cloud computing (Azure), productivity tools (Office), and AI integrations.AI-driven growth in Azure and Copilot; projected revenue CAGR of 15%+ through 2030; partnerships with OpenAI.
2 AVGO $319.10 Semiconductor designer specializing in chips for data centers, networking, and AI [accelerators.AI](http://accelerators.AI) data center boom; VMware acquisition synergies; expected 20-25% annual revenue growth.
3 AMZN $238.80 E-commerce leader with dominant cloud services (AWS) and expanding AI/logistics.AWS AI expansion; e-commerce market share gains; tariff resilience through pricing power.
4 GOOGL $327.67 Tech conglomerate with search dominance (Google), cloud (GCP), and AI (Gemini).AI advancements in search and ads; cloud growth; undervalued relative to peers.
5 TSM $334.70 World's largest contract chip manufacturer for AI, smartphones, and [autos.AI](http://autos.AI) chip demand from Nvidia/AMD; 25% CAGR through 2029; US/Taiwan fab expansions.
Similar results for the top 59, then for 51-81 as well as some "honorable mentions" and a few others to consider. I also asked for a small bundle of ETFs that would cover most of the Top 50 but that did not work out.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF(US/EU) should continue going strong with chip demand from AI and Orbital. TSM, ASML keeps breaking ATH record. 

The only way I could see BRK as a "good buy" is if China invades Taiwan and seriously blows up TSM, or US credit-default swaps SPIKE

Market crashes. BRK scoops up the "Park Place" blue chips on the low and backstops the treasury, basically becomes Tyrell corp......great buy if that happens

Alex Honnold about to climb Taipei 101. Calls on TSM

Literally Nvidia is on sale consolidating for your pleasure right now. Keep buying it before the next leg up.
I'm eight years in and it's on sale right now. The co-design they have is unmatched. They have kicked Apple off the top on allocations with TSM, they have everything lined up to head towards a $10t market cap.

Ilike both and love Goog as a safer growth story, but Nvda literally smashes their projections every quarter. They have a much more consistent track record of earning beats than Google. If anything their projections are conservative given the demand forecast TSM just provided of 50% 3-year CAGR.
That said I think the growth story is even easier for amd so I'm long them in lieu of nvda.

Hi All, just wanted to share a quick summary of a few sectors and what the prime book (institutional positioning) is looking like into next week. This is not trading or financial advice, i would consider this more of a watchlist also don't forget earnings is volatile as hell and all is fair game. If you trade earnings be prepared to be kicked in the balls a few times or hit in the throat.
# Consumer
**Summary:** Staples outperformed this week on strong **PG** earnings and positive beverage data (**CELH**, **MNST**). Conversely, Discretionary/Retail faded as capital rotated back into Tech. Concerns are mounting that upcoming adverse weather will hit store traffic in the near term.
* **Crowded Longs:** RL, CELH, MNST, W, M
* **Crowded Shorts:** RCL, NKE, SBUX, CL, CLX
# Energy
**Summary:** OFS (Oilfield Services) is back in focus following **SLB** and **HAL** results, driven by international growth. Sentiment remains bullish across the complex despite recent equity runs.
* **Crowded Longs:** SU, SLB, FCX, B, VLO, XOM
* **Crowded Shorts:** CNQ, MPC, OKE, VG, PTEN
# Industrials
**Summary:** The sector paused after its strongest start in 20 years, with exposures hitting decade highs. Earnings have been tepid; wins from **DAN** and **FTAI** were offset by downside moves in **GE**, **TEL**, and **DHI**. Fertilizer names (**CF**, **MOS**, **NTR**) caught a bid on Iran tensions.
* **Crowded Longs:** GE, GEV, APH, CMI, PH
* **Crowded Shorts:** ODFL, UPS, DE, OSK, IR
# Healthcare
**Summary:** Biopharma remains the favorite due to M&A activity and positive clinical updates. In contrast, Medtech is struggling with uncertainty surrounding reimbursement updates and upcoming earnings.
* **Crowded Longs:** INSM, BBIO, LLY, MCK, COR
* **Crowded Shorts:** MRNA, AVTR, TNDM, OSCR, MOH
# Technology
**Summary:** A volatile, "unexplained" week for Tech amid Davos headlines and mixed micro updates (**NFLX/INTC** weakness). Momentum cracked mid-week, though Software saw a technical bounce from oversold levels.
* **Crowded Longs:** GOOGL, TSM, WDC, ASML, LRCX
* **Crowded Shorts:** ADBE, OMC, DELL, TTD, HPQ
# Financials
**Summary:** High volatility as the mid-week rally in cyclicals/value (Regionals, Consumer Finance) was wiped out by Friday’s fade. Large caps significantly outperformed small caps, marking the widest gap since July 2024. Davos sentiment was generally constructive on policy risk, though **V** and **MA** remain heavy.
* **Crowded Longs:** IVZ, MS, CFG, COF, SCHW
* **Crowded Shorts:** BRO, AJG, TROW, CME

Just like Google is top tier retarded for switching from Samsung to TSMC? China is never going to invade Taiwan so long as TSMC owns 70% of the world’s foundry revenue (as of Q32025). <5NM they’re like 95% plus. And they’re the first company in full production for 2NM while Samsung just hit 50% yield this month? TSMCs already won the foundry war, Intel is hanging on by a thread with TSMC and the US government supporting them. Not including the fact China was just approved for H200s they desperately needed for their own AI models… manufactured by TSM. I won’t even get into the details of how an invasion wouldn’t happen and why it’s so different than Ukraine and Palestine. China can continue postering with those war games of theirs. The last “real” threat from China was ~96/97 when they shot missiles over Taiwan, not just boating around in contested waters shooting missiles “near” Taiwan
Name me a company who has switched away from TSMC as a foundry partner because of product inefficiencies or lack of tech advancement.
Completely baseless, fear mongering comment with little to not research or understanding of how chips / fab industry works

Yes but as others have said ASML Is an equipment maker (for lithography) and LRCX is an equipment maker (for etch) where MU is a chip maker much like TSM. It's apples to oranges but they both grow on fruit trees. It's better in my opinion to compare the chip makers to the chip makers and the tool makers to the tool makers because they're fundamentally different parts of the chain and function differently. You are correct though they're all a part of the same bubble if and when it pops.

It's 20% of my holdings and I think that's as far as I'll go with it.  Any particular analysis links (or your own DD) that I might have missed?  I've been trying to scour Reddit and Substack for info on them, TSM, and the major semicaps.  

yes but if your intent is to add diversification outside of the mag 7 concentration in the sp500 or tsm funds, look at large cap value funds, small cap funds, reits, intl etc , some other good large cap funds not heavy in mag 7 is FNDX SCHD VTV VIG VDIG TDVG DGRO DFLV AVLV . note its never necessary to do anything outside of the TSM/sp500 but on a behavior level of investing its good to keep you invested and keep contributing

Supply constraints means something about Foundry!! Perhaps TSM maybe kind enough to offer some assistance there - in exchange for some kind military aid?

Clearly it's working for you. Nice one.
I've added TSM along with SOXX etf cause it contains the US semiconductor companies as in almost same % where others have huge bets on Nvidia or TSM. Plus it's not much volatile than the others.

At the end of the day, their fab still sucks relative to TSM and their chips aren’t as competitive as AMD. This is the same problems they had 2 years ago, but a much higher stock price now and a whole lot of hopium and not a lot of reality.

I would recommend caution here. TSM reported really early this Q, and so much of the positive read through could be priced in. So while it may be a good report, there’s probably less upside. Just my 2c. 

I own INTC for one reason: China. Okay, two reasons: China, Taiwan. Three reasons? China, Taiwan, TSM.
I see the stock as a hedge against China moving on Taiwan in the next few years. Imagine it’s 2027 and the PLA invasion force is attacking the Taiwan beaches . . . think how much INTC will go up. Now, move that to 2032 and INTC might not go up, since TSM will have built enough fab capacity in the US. The US government seems to see INTC similarly.
In the meantime, 4Q25 looks about like what I’d expect. INTC is ramping 18A, still early and the yield is poor, hurting margins and capacity, so despite strong demand for both PCs and x86 servers, 4Q only beat by a little and 1Q was guided weaker. Foundry is losing lots of money, since it is only building production wafers for INTC itself the net is around zero. It is a long slow turnaround, INTC is in inning 5 maybe.
I figure I win if they get to the 9th inning, or if China moves on Taiwan. I can’t say which I think is more likely, but I think the combined probability of either one is (subjectively) 65%+.

Sort of, they still need wafers currently form TSMC, they can use Intel instead of TSM and boom reshoring works.