TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

ASML crushes expectations and is marginally green? Might have to get some puts for TSM

# Today is Wednesday, the 15th of July
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, July 15th
- Stock splits:
- AIBD @ **1:10**
- AMDD @ **1:10**
- GGLS @ **1:10**
- KORU @ **20:1**
- MUU @ **20:1**
- DRIP @ **1:10**
- SOXS @ **1:10**
- TZA @ **1:10**
- TECS @ **1:10**
- LMED @ **5:1**
- Expected earnings:
ASML, BLK, BNY, CAG, CTAS, CTBI, ELV, FEIM, FHN, GSBC, HOMB, JBHT, JNJ, KARO, KMI, MRTN, MS, MTB, PGR, PKBK, PLBC, PNC, SIFY, TRX, UAL, UNB, UROY
- Ex-div:
AIPI, BCIC, BELFA, BELFB, BPOPM, CAC, CEPI, CHCO, CMTV, CSWC, FEPI, HYBI, MLCIL, MST, NHP, NWFL, OCCI, OCCIM, OCCIN, PECO, QDTY, QLDY, RDTY, SATA, SDTY, STRC, TRIN, TSYX, VSEC, YBMN
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Employment Change Weekly (actual: 19.80K, previous: 21.00K)
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (actual: -0.056M, consensus: -2.700M, previous: -0.399M)
- CPI (actual: -0.4%, consensus: -0.1%, previous: 0.5%)
- CPI (actual: 3.5%, consensus: 3.8%, previous: 4.2%)
- CPI Index, n.s.a. (actual: 333.95, consensus: 334.70, previous: 335.12)
- CPI Index, s.a (actual: 332.57, previous: 333.98)
- CPI, n.s.a (actual: -0.35%, previous: 0.63%)
- Cleveland CPI (actual: 0.2%, previous: 0.3%)
- Core CPI (actual: 0.0%, consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.2%)
- Core CPI (actual: 2.6%, consensus: 2.8%, previous: 2.9%)
- Core CPI Index (actual: 336.07, previous: 336.12)
- FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- Fed Governor Cook Speaks
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
- NFIB Small Business Optimism (actual: 97.4, consensus: 95.8, previous: 95.3)
- Overall Net Capital Flow (actual: 132.20B, previous: 76.60B)
- Real Earnings (actual: 0.8%, previous: -0.2%)
- Redbook (actual: 8.2%, previous: 11.5%)
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (actual: 232.7B, consensus: 128.5B, previous: 104.8B)
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (actual: 232.70B, previous: 104.80B)
- US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (actual: 56.60B, previous: 50.50B)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, July 16th
- Stock splits:
- GNPX @ **1:22**
- Expected earnings:
AA, ABT, BANF, BCML, BSVN, BVFL, CASS, CBSH, CFG, CHMG, CNS, CWBC, FFIN, FNB, GE, HOVR, IIIN, INDB, MAN, NFLX, PLD, SFNC, STT, TSM, UNH, USB, VIST, VZLA, WABC, WAFD, WIT
- Ex-div:
HRZN, JOUT, REGCO, REGCP, SATA
- Economic events and announcements:
- Beige Book
- Core PPI (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.4%)
- Core PPI (consensus: 5.2%, previous: 4.9%)
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: 1.096M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (consensus: -1.800M, previous: 2.998M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -0.052M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: -0.001M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: -0.172M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: -4.980M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: -0.8%)
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- Fed Governor Cook Speaks
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: -1.904M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: -0.233M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: -0.427M)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.58%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: -2.2%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 169.5)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 266.3)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 794.4)
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (consensus: 9.30, previous: 5.70)
- PPI (consensus: 0.0%, previous: 1.1%)
- PPI (consensus: 6.2%, previous: 6.5%)
- PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (previous: 0.8%)
- PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (previous: 5.1%)
## Upcoming events for Friday, July 17th
- Expected earnings:
ALV, AUC, BFC, DIT, FITB, HDB, HIFS, IBN, LEDS, MCBS, NB, OVLY, PLG, RBCAA, RF, SPFI, TFC, TRV
- Ex-div:
CBRL, FRD, GWRS, HERZ, KARO, MGRC, OXLC, OXLCM, OXLCN, OXLCO, OXSQ, PBHC, RGCO, SATA, WDFC
- Economic events and announcements:
- 4-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.630%)
- 8-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.635%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 1.3%, previous: 1.3%)
- Business Inventories (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.5%)
- Continuing Jobless Claims (previous: 1,814K)
- Core Retail Sales (consensus: -0.1%, previous: 0.8%)
- Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
- Fed Logan Speaks
- Fed Schmid Speaks
- Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 215K, previous: 215K)
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (previous: 218.75K)
- NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus: 35, previous: 35)
- Natural Gas Storage (previous: 61B)
- Pending Home Sales (consensus: -0.3%, previous: 3.8%)
- Pending Home Sales Index (previous: 76.8)
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (consensus: 12.1, previous: 10.3)
- Philly Fed Business Conditions (previous: 50.2)
- Philly Fed CAPEX Index (previous: 41.20)
- Philly Fed Employment (previous: 7.9)
- Philly Fed New Orders (previous: 27.3)
- Philly Fed Prices Paid (previous: 53.20)
- Retail Control (previous: 0.7%)
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.4%)
- Retail Sales (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.9%)
- Retail Sales (previous: 6.88%)
- Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (previous: 0.5%)
## Upcoming events for Saturday, July 18th
- Economic events and announcements:
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow
- Building Permits (consensus: 1.400M, previous: 1.410M)
- Building Permits (previous: -0.9%)
- CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (previous: 1.3K)
- CFTC Copper speculative net positions (previous: 64.3K)
- CFTC Corn speculative net positions (previous: 101.0K)
- CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (previous: 75.7K)
- CFTC Gold speculative net positions (previous: 194.2K)
- CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (previous: 2.1K)
- CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions (previous: -165.3K)
- CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (previous: -42.9K)
- CFTC Silver speculative net positions (previous: 28.0K)
- CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions (previous: 112.8K)
- CFTC Wheat speculative net positions (previous: -49.7K)
- Capacity Utilization Rate (consensus: 76.2%, previous: 76.2%)
- Export Price Index (previous: 1.3%)
- Export Price Index (previous: 11.2%)
- Housing Starts (consensus: 1.320M, previous: 1.177M)
- Housing Starts (previous: -15.4%)
- Import Price Index (consensus: -0.4%, previous: 1.9%)
- Import Price Index (previous: 6.7%)
- Industrial Production (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%)
- Industrial Production (previous: 1.67%)
- Manufacturing Production (previous: 0.0%)
- Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (previous: 4.6%)
- Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (previous: 3.3%)
- Michigan Consumer Expectations (previous: 50.7)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (consensus: 51.4, previous: 49.5)
- Michigan Current Conditions (previous: 47.7)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
^^^^2026-07-15

TSM will take us to Valhalla tomorrow

companies that dump were usually near ATH's. TSM is 12% off it's ATH

TSMC (TSM) reported its sales for June on **July 13, 2026**.
* **June Revenue:** NT$442.68 billion, a **67.9% increase** year-on-year and a 6.2% rise from May. This marked a notable break from the company's historical pattern of seasonal declines in June.
* **Second Quarter:** Total consolidated revenue for Q2 reached NT$1.27 trillion (approximately US$39.5 billion), up 36% year-on-year.
* **First Half of 2026:** Total revenue reached NT$2.4 trillion, representing a 35.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

META said they will deploy 2x more GW of compute next year (14 vs 7gw in 2026)

so we have capex good news
profitability.. i think the jury is still out on that one

This comment wasn’t to me, but no one taught me to invest, sadly. My best bet was, and it seems, still is, reading comments in this community.
That said, I did buy and hold TSM from when it was cheaper. So I have at least something good going for me, I guess…?
That said, the volatility does scare me. In an inherited retirement account that must be emptied within the next 5, 10 years…how do you know how much risk to take? Like, had I followed traditional advice when my died died (and kept it the way he had it), I would have had a ton of conservative shit and missed out on the growth from all the smart buys after Liberation Day on things like TSM and things like that…but that’s only bc I gave my friend my password and let him randomly buy shit…now that I am older and wiser, it’s hard to know when to cut losses on speculative plays in a growth-aimed account.
I know this is wallstreetbets and it’s mostly memes and sarcasm with a side of truth, so if anyone can’t point me to anything helpful on that particular subject, I’d be very appreciative!

Headline CPI came in at -0.4% MoM vs -0.1% consensus. Core flat vs +0.2% expected. July hike odds dropped from \~50% to 16% overnight. $SPY and $QQQ loved it, obviously.
But here's the thing, the miss was almost entirely energy. Gasoline down 9.7%, energy component down 5.7%. Strip that out and the picture gets murkier fast. Shelter is still running around 4.25% annualized. That's not "mission accomplished" territory.
Checked the moomoo community reaction and the bond trade was interesting, 2Y yield dropped 8.8bp to 4.19%, $TLT catching a bid. Makes sense if you're fading the hike cycle. But Warsh basically said don't read too much into one print, which I think is the right call.
FOMC July 28-29 is the next real catalyst. Then August 12 for the next CPI read. Imo the long-duration + quality growth setup ($NVDA, $TSM, $VRT over $IWM) still makes sense here, but I'd be cautious chasing small-caps on this single print.
Anyone else leaning into bonds here or fading this rally into the FOMC?

I fucking hate my life dude. I buy TSM at 420, I hold as it goes up to 425ish during the day, then it fucking crashes back down. I'm down like 500 bucks at close. It climbs a bit after hours, but not much. I hold more. It goes up a bit more, I sell at right about break even.
THEN IT FUCKING GOES UP TO FUCKING 430. WHAT THE FUCK. I got fucking jipped out of fucking 2500 fucking dollars. FUCK YOU TSM YOU FUCKS.

Bers in big trouble with asml forecast increase 30 minutes ago and TSM coming a day later to say they are sold out through 2027. Don’t fight a bull market. Use hedges and ride dat thing

TSM gonna run like a crack head chasing a chicken

I just sold a side business and put 100% of the proceeds into my regular brokerage account, with about 10% going to SCHF (although this is a small portion of that account, < 5% overall). I do also own some international stocks outright like TSM and SKHY. In my main 401(k) international is just under 25% of holdings. I don’t rebalance and let it grow naturally. I didn’t rollover and keep my new 401(k) separate, and that is currently no international, but I’ll likely change that once I see real concern the US market is slowing. So overall international is probably about 16-17% of my portfolio if you include all stocks and ETFs, and a slightly higher percentage of just ETF holdings.

I think we all have a little bit of the TSM

TSM is already known since they release monthly reports, but management comments can move the market.
ASML just signals demand, and between TSM, INTC, and now SPCX' Terafab, it's going to be blowout report.

Finna get dicked by ASML and then by TSM on back to back days haha

prolly TSM - they got the volume and scale with quantity of demand from semis. ASML scales with new factories.. which matter, but are more lumpy and grow slower than pure gpu/memory/cpu etc

which earnings is more important, ASML or TSM?

I just looked at the charts and top holdings, SK MU AMD TSM and the etf itself SEMI double and triple topped meaning its mega run was being exhausted. You then had big drops and choppy price action following it after. MU TSM and SK are in descending wedge channels the only exception is AMD that is ascending. If they break above the resisting trend line than it's bullish

ASML and TSM earnings gonna send SaaS back to the stone ages again (I’m a ServiceNow bag holder)

ASML first, then TSM

Rotate to TSM?