TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

* You don’t think they’re investing $250b in capex without confidence the demand will be on the other side?
Every one of the past 6 semiconductor/memory cycles were also this time is different durable demand stories where optimism was extreme overproduction was massive and long term contracts were canceled
* The fact that all of them including TSM are making these investments is strong indication that they don’t believe this is a temporary cycle but rather a secular change.
Every one of the past 6 semiconductor/memory cycles were also this time is different durable demand stories where optimism was extreme overproduction was massive and long term contracts were canceled
* SK just got a $500B contract from Nvidia. Samsung is getting huge deals. Micron is signing 5 year agreements.
Every one of the past 6 semiconductor/memory cycles were also this time is different durable demand stories where optimism was extreme overproduction was massive and long term contracts were canceled
* You are right the market is skeptical which is why these guys have such low PEs but I disagree the massive capex is a bearish signal.
You should take your disagreement to Wall Street, they're the only ones that can move the price of the stock. I'm sure they have not thought about exactly what you are thinking about, times 10, plus insider information, and are eager to hear your perspective

Still pretty tech heavy because the top holdings are mag7 tech and international tech stocks like TSM and ASML but right idea to look at US mid cap, small cap, and exusa stocks.

Buy TSM or SK Hynix better. More undervalued. 

You don’t think they’re investing $250b in capex without confidence the demand will be on the other side? AI hardware companies are notoriously conservative with capex investments due to huge bust cycles and concerns that increasing supply will compress margins. The fact that all of them including TSM are making these investments is strong indication that they don’t believe this is a temporary cycle but rather a secular change. SK just got a $500B contract from Nvidia. Samsung is getting huge deals. Micron is signing 5 year agreements.
You are right the market is skeptical which is why these guys have such low PEs but I disagree the massive capex is a bearish signal.

Anyone concerned about supply? Will AMD secure enough from HBM suppliers and TSM for more exponential growth in 2028?

You are technically correct the majority of stocks in VOO, SPMO, and SMH act internationally in that the companies address activity to mutliple countries.
Cruian will play tricks with words. He doesn't mean technically international stocks but a considerable allocation to exUSA stocks. The entirety of your small exUSA stock allocation is in SMH for companies like TSM and ASML for example. VOO for the S&P500 and SPMO for S&P500 momentum do not include exUSA stocks.
ExUSA stocks have their periods of relative performance and underperformance just like USA stocks. There is no fault if you view practical geopolitical events reasonably and assess concerns that there will be long term middle east and continental conflict that will interrupt exUSA economic growth or even if you saw the korean KOSPI, Japan's Nikkei, and China's market crashes and behavior are too much risk for your financial goals.

I recommend Taiwan Semi conductor TSM. They are the only Semi company that hasn’t seen the ridiculous gains or losses and they are years ahead of competition in chip fabrication technology and they make chips for almost everyone (nvidia, apple, amd, arm, etc.. except for intel). I predict they will be the next Micron or Sandisk. The biggest risk is China invading Taiwan but that scenario has been seen by many as a very likely catalyst to WWIII and in that case the market will crash anyway.
Rn i only hold 4 shares but am buying with each dip around $400.

Okay since this is a weekend discussion thread and everyone is chatting shit:
What's people's thoughts for Monday futes / open? I'd suspect no news or good news on iran tomorrow. But who knows? The US cannot and will not tolerate oil prices this high. I'm not betting against the US.
Some good sells on semis yesterday. But the fall is right where the 20 weekly is, especially on TSM, arguably next to NVDA in the sector. Intel had good earnings. I think we get a pump next week, what's everyone's thoughts?

TSM 500 EOY

So according to you, AVGO doesn’t make their own silicon
And they don’t pay TSM to make their silicon
Kay

TSM good earnings: falls of a cliff
INTC good earnings: falls of a cliff
Time to step away.

idk, i know theres benefits, but maybe its not where i am positioned. semis have already ran up, could be AI ROI is now in the enterprises they are currently being implemented across?
for instance Healthcare and Financials have been looking better risk to reward, considering they can start unlocking the benefits of AI for business.
earnings from GS, JPM, and BLK all pumped while, semis dumped, INTC, AVGO, TSM

Cerebras is as volatile as SNDK what are you talking about? Literally was up 14% on Thursday and still closed flat. This isn’t a value play, it’s not a safe bet. A stock like TSM is probably what you’re looking for.

AVGO does not pay TSM as well. Google pays both AVGO and TSMC. And TSMC further pays a fraction of those increased profits to ASML for expansion. But AVGO does not funnel that to anyone else unlike TSMC. Learn the supply chain correctly

Down 5% in TSM....my ASYS position is so red iv stopped reading the % lost.

The one risk for growth names in AI adjacent companies was capex might slow. Google and TSM said “lmao absolutely not, we’re spending more through 2027” and yet all of those stocks are getting obliterated.

AI names getting nuked because…. Google and TSM said AI capex is only going to go up through 2027. And then Jensen defended compute demand… so neoclouds all fall. Alright.

The semi trade HAS to have washed out a lot of people by now, tired of the 2 full months of chops, rug pulls, and counter narratives.
Don't think more blowout earnings will save positions. Stuff like $TSM and even $GOOG lately shows market still doesn't give a shit.

Listen folks, I'm not a tech bro and I know nothing about this AI stuff. I don't care how it works, it's just hype and buzzwords for me. However, I've never made so much easy money in my life and I wanted to share a few insights on how I did it.
My strategy for the past 3 years has been to invest in a company as soon as they use the word AI in their brand. This has worked very well for me and a few of my friends across several stocks. For example, as soon as Intel has rebranded to "Built for AI", we knew that it was about to skyrocket, and sure enough, the green candles started to show up in the next weeks.
It worked so well that I've created an index called the Frequency AI Ratio Tracker (FART). It's basically the amount of time the word "AI" is used on a company's homepage. For example, AMD currently has 60 occurrences of the word "AI" on their homepage for roughly 876 words in total, meaning a ratio of 6.85%.
To put that in perspective: statistically, 1 out of every 15 words on AMD's homepage is "AI". That is a **critical-level**, enterprise-grade FART score and it was a no-brainer once I discovered that out. The higher the score is, the greater the potential was.
However, for the first time in the past 3 years, I have a strange feeling that this strategy is no longer working and the momentum is starting to fade away. Looking at all the OG companies from the .com bubble, it sure looks like a peak to me, and I've actually started to use a reversed-FART strategy since July 4th. The higher the score is, the greater the risk of a downfall once the AI bubble pops.
[Some OG stocks](https://preview.redd.it/yqpbos7uo7fh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=40823c3fb4c3a05d4f200f85395622ed3ece69ae)
The General Rule of Thumb for the reversed-FART stategy:
0%: Low risk
0.1% – 2%: Medium risk
2% – 5%: High risk
> 5%: Extreme risk
Here's the most recent compiled version of FART for some tech companies as of July 24th.
==========================================================================
Name of company | Stock | Total Words | AI Mentions | FART Score
==========================================================================
AMD | AMD | 876 | 60 | 6.85 %
NVIDIA | NVDA | 2663 | 115 | 4.32 %
Oracle | ORCL | 786 | 27 | 3.44 %
ServiceNow | NOW | 651 | 22 | 3.38 %
Qualcomm | QCOM | 765 | 24 | 3.14 %
Arm Holdings | ARM | 862 | 26 | 3.02 %
Cisco Systems | CSCO | 450 | 13 | 2.89 %
SAP | SAP | 1004 | 25 | 2.49 %
IBM | IBM | 560 | 11 | 1.96 %
Micron Technology | MU | 635 | 12 | 1.89 %
Microsoft | MSFT | 645 | 10 | 1.55 %
Broadcom | AVGO | 462 | 7 | 1.52 %
Salesforce | CRM | 936 | 14 | 1.50 %
Samsung Electronics | 005930.KS| 375 | 5 | 1.33 %
Meta Platforms | META | 303 | 4 | 1.32 %
Alphabet (Google) | GOOGL | 422 | 4 | 0.95 %
TSMC | TSM | 688 | 6 | 0.87 %
Intel | INTC | 245 | 2 | 0.82 %
Palantir | PLTR | 3151 | 23 | 0.73 %
SK Hynix | 000660.KS| 167 | 1 | 0.60 %
Amazon | AMZN | 355 | 2 | 0.56 %
Applied Materials | AMAT | 209 | 1 | 0.48 %
ASML | ASML | 596 | 1 | 0.17 %
Corning | GLW | 576 | 1 | 0.17 %
Apple | AAPL | 883 | 1 | 0.11 %
Tesla | TSLA | 181 | 0 | 0.00 %
Lam Research | LRCX | 275 | 0 | 0.00 %
*Legal notice: I am dumb and this is not financial advise. This was compiled by hand by copy-pasting in Microsoft Word like a fool and searching for the word AI. Consider compiling your own data and use FART at your own risk. I am not responsable for any loss based on this strategy. The level of risk estimated by FART was established out of thin air. Ask your financial adviser about FART.*

I'm down on my semi stocks which I'm bitter about as its ~50% of my small portfolio I play with. Fuck you TSM & ASYS.
most of my other holding are bounching between 2% positive or negative max....think finance and super short term risky shit.
My manufacturing stocks, all except AA are green and a positive return.
I had cash sitting in a fidelity position...then realized it would be better sitting in a diversified international market. FZILX was my global (read international and less exposure to the AI bubble and diversified from US markets.) It also is a 0 expense no transaction fee index fund.
Downside of FZILX is that Samsung and SK Hynix are being held. That said....I think if a position shits the bed they drop it....I'm no Michael burry when it comes to research thought.
DD: moved cash into international index fund with 0 expense or transaction fees. Hoping to get better rates than a cash position and a decent market return.