TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

Last 93 years, always after midterm, market spikes \~ 18–20% in the next 6 months. When there is a war, even after midterm markets gave higher returns in 6 months. Heading buybacks & $NVDA earnings time. $SPX $NDX $QQQ $MU $PG $FDX $STX $AMD $LITE $MRVL $TSM $ASML & banks $JPM $GS $MS $C $WFC $BAC & $NKE $PG $MO $FDX $CLX time to load all for next 6 months ride Here is 1974-2022, you can check 1930 to 1974 https://preview.redd.it/8jkj2wmsk0zh1.png?width=970&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f1130b5e292c7ae151822ba90cb3264c5f50622

Barring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, TSM is the company I worry the least about.

\~$1.1M portfolio: 1.25 BTC (\~$100k, largest position), mega-cap tech (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, TSM), VOO/QQQ/VGT, blue chips (JPM, V, MA, BRK.B, COST, LLY, JNJ, KO, HD), plus a little SCHD and SGOV. Most top holdings yield under 1%, and BTC yields nothing. I'm up 54%, so any rotation means a tax bill. Goal: $30k/yr in dividends over the next few years without torching the gains. \- Sell BTC first since it pays nothing, or keep it as the growth sleeve and trim tech? \- Sell and rotate, or just redirect new money and dividends into SCHD and dividend growers? \- Which blue chips would you keep as-is?

Yeah I’m down $25K across varied retirements after the last two weeks…but that’s all gains from the past 8 months and not all of it either. I also sold my own Intel and TSM stock 3 weeks ago in RH three weeks ago for a profit of 120 and 350%, respectively (both held over a year the latter for three).

Average returns after midterm are always higher during wartime midterm, compared to peacetime. See $SPX 24 midterms across 93 years data attached, see it. Opportunity to load again $TSM $MRVL $TSEM $INTC $RDDT $GOOG $AMZN $META $ILMN $TWLO $SKWY $DDOG $DRAM $NVDA $MU $SNDK $QCOM $COIN , all beaten down stocks. https://preview.redd.it/osdpd5oa6wyh1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=35b1eca45228ed6c4f23cd434a4239262ad21271

Me too - I've had AI engine totally confabulate ticker symbols! But I've also had sincere & honest human friends suggest TSMC vs TSM. If you view AI as a crowd-source-engine, sometimes-inaccurate assessor and expect to RE-EVALUATE it;s comments by other sources - then you are 100% fine. It's not the infallable pope of rome - and neither is it the [toss-off-hunch-meister.It](http://toss-off-hunch-meister.It) assesses all the info out there and gives a (crowd-source) POV. My personal investment strategy is 1000% anti-herd. AI engines do a masterful job of assessing/describing herd mentality.

BigTech are global companies. They have a big cash flow, generating from consumers using them globally AI companies don’t need government bailouts. They can modulate their spending, don’t need government money at all. All adopt AI use; $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $MU $KLAC $TSM all go up

TSM carrying harder than a backpack while that call just leaks money

LOL same but I also added Marvell and TSM

Yes, it might be smart to keep some of it in less risky investments rather than 100% in S&P 500 or TSM, at least until you know your own risk tolerance.

Last weekend and Thursday I posted option reads on 18 tickers for people, a low delta put and a covered call on each, all expiring yesterday. Here's how every one finished. 31 of 36 expired worthless. 5 got hit: RDDT $130 put. Stock went from $144 to $92 after earnings, down 36%. Flagged: earnings before expiry, IV over 100%, downtrend. MRNA $215 call. Stock ran 11% to $222. Flagged: IV over 100%. SKHY $145 call. Up 9% to $149 after earnings. Flagged: earnings before expiry. TQQQ $66 put. Dropped 9% Friday. Flagged: 3x leveraged. SOFI $17 put. Slid to $16.76. Flagged: high beta, downtrend. Every miss had a red flag on it. But being fair, flags aren't a crystal ball. IREN had 7 flags and a health score of 15 out of 100, and both sides expired worthless. ASTS had 7 flags and was fine too. The other honest part: 86% sounds great until you do the math on RDDT. That put paid about $325 and would have cost around $3,500 to close. One bad week can wipe out a lot of good ones. The two cleanest names, NVDA and TSM, no flags and no earnings, both expired worthless with room to spare. My takeaway: the flags don't tell you what will go wrong, but when something did go wrong, it was always one of the flagged ones. Skipping earnings weeks alone would have dodged the biggest loss.

Bought some SMH, SOXX, CRDO, ALAB, COHR, TSM, VST (held up relatively well). Will keep eyes on MRVL and LITE next week

I usually look at forward pe and 250 day moving average. If macro environment looks ok, I add to my positions where I have conviction. But this is in my Roth and I’m holding for at least 10 years. I started doing this in 2016 and have outperformed VT by 82% in my “play money account” (which I limit to about 100k). You can’t win them all, but the pullbacks in 2018, 2020, 2024 (tariff tantrum) and 2025 (Iraq war) did wonders for my individual positions. That said, 90% of my investments are in VT or TDFs. This year I’ve added to MRVL, AMD and TSM in April, CRWD in July, MSFT in August, and Google and AMZN on Friday (first time buying AMZN). I still hold AAPL (my first stock pick in 2016, followed Buffet) and NVDA from 2020. Play the long game and be patient. I’ll be retiring 3 years early bc of my winners. 👍🏽

$NVDA there is no AI bubble, until $NVDA earnings drops. Right now $TSM can’t meet demand, $NVDA earnings skyrockets, on to $MU gave $52 Billion revenue few weeks back. So AI bubble noise story is not real, AI changing all performance at every sector

Both...sold off some GOOG, VEU and VOO...bought some TSM, MU, EWY and NVDA...as well as QQQ. Just risking up while things are a little lower. Regret selling Google ...maybe buy a tiny amount to scratch the itch.

What do you think about TSM rebounding?

I do believe if we see a blue sweep, which we all know is highly probable, we're going to see more volatility. At the same time, that mango asshat is still president, and even IF he wasn't, is this really a market any rational person would want to plunge short on? Stay away from large short positions guys. Your account/heart/mind/emotions and entire nervous system will thank you greatly for it. Best advice, find the companies you want to trade now, and prepare to plunge 2-3 months out when the knife hits the ground and begins to quiver. I've been eyeing AMZN and TSM. Pure AI plays may not be the best idea anymore. Who knows though.

wondering if TSM is gonna come down farther, might grab shares

Yeah I don’t think we disagree overall. I think I was misunderstanding your implication and vice versa. Was just saying you can be diversified with stocks (Or even less), and there’s also the fact that diversification isn’t necessarily the best alpha generator, as you suggested it’s more of insurance against extreme downside, a sort of capital preservation method. I don’t really think I’ll beat the index over a long time period. I have bought several high-conviction individual stocks during this ostensibly once-in-a-lifetime AI infra buildout that I think offer attractive r/r. META, AMZN, TSM, NVDA and some power/DC/colo names - not exactly bespoke investments, but ones we all own thru index funds. I just want to be overweight as many/all of them are undervalued I think. These are very much buy-and-holds,and I don’t plan to actively trade much (although recent trades - MSFT, NOW, IREN - have done quite well though I don’t expect that to contribute consistently and indefinitely).

I've been buying the dip but it keeps dipping! I bought MU, AVGO, MRVL, NBIS, SPCX, AMD, TSM and INTC. Sold META.

It is always about TSM tho. No one use Intel . Hate to say it

Chips are very reliant on TSM

TSM still potential?

Google, TSM, NVDA, ORCL (smaller position on mrvl, arms and intc)

Five Chip Stocks Drove 60% of the Selloff **Nvidia led in dollar terms. Its shares fell only 3.6%, yet that move erased about $185 billion**, because Nvidia is worth close to $5 trillion. Intel fell nearly eight times as hard in percentage terms. However, it lost less money, about $138 billion. TSMC dropped 5.4%, wiping out roughly $108 billion. Broadcom slid 5.5% and AMD sank 9.7%, and each shed about $90 billion. Company Change Market value lost: **Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) -3.6% $185 billion** Has ER on 11-17-2026! Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) -28.4% $138 billion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) -5.4% $108 billion Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) -5.5% $90 billion Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) -9.7% $90 billion Top five combined $610 billion Updated by 11:35 a.m. ET. Source: TradingView