TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

I got a feeling TSM will beat on everything and we will drill more

Oh TSM earnings are tomorrow. Thats either gonna be really helpful or suck really hard

TSM either makes or breaks us

TSM save ai pls

Now my MU and TSM puts are looking good.

All we need r amazing TSM numbers and a perfectly cooked PPI!

Lowkey if TSM is fantastic and ppi doesn’t surprise , we may only end up -1% down tomorrow !!

TSM earnings tomorrow pre market 👀

TSM and PPI better come thru or we eatin thrift store beans here on out

PPI and TSM earnings will save us, cash holders will buy in, and people who sold today will jump back in and pump to EoW. Next week we dump fr until tech earnings reignite hope in the market again. Just my two pesos.

They'll smash and no one will give a shit. $TSM never moves semis meaningfully.

TSM earnings tonight can pump the AI trade, which means more opportunity to short these stocks

Is everyone done panicking yet? Let refocus on those ATH. TSM will save the week tomorrow.

Wait until TSM earnings have hiccups tomorrow !

Thursday's setup is a hot-CPI hangover going into 8:30 ET PPI and retail sales, plus TSMC and Schwab earnings before the open. The five names most exposed are TSM, SMH, SCHW, QQQ and IWM. TSM and IWM are sitting on support. **Catalysts (Thu Oct 15)** * **Backdrop:** September CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, against 3.6% expected \[4\]\[5\]. SPY closed -1.03%, QQQ -1.97%, IWM -1.93%, and the 10-year yield is 5.19% \[19\]\[16\]\[17\]\[20\]. * **Fed odds:** Polymarket has 67.5% on no change at the October meeting and 31.5% on a 25 bp hike \[12\]. * **8:30 ET data:** PPI (MoM consensus 0.5% vs 0.4% prior) and retail sales (consensus 0.3–0.4% vs 1.2% prior). Jobless claims and the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys also print \[1\]\[2\]. * **Fed speakers:** Bowman at 2:55 AM and Hammack at 4:30 PM \[1\]\[3\]. Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday \[1\]. * **TSMC:** It reports before the open, with the call at 2:00 AM ET \[8\]. Q3 revenue is already out at NT$1,494.2B, up 50.9% y/y. The focus is Q4 guidance, capex and gross margin versus the 65–67% guide \[7\]. * **Schwab:** It reports before the open, with consensus EPS around $1.67 and revenue around $7.2B \[9\]. * **Chip read-through:** ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook for a third time, but its Q3 revenue slightly missed in dollar terms. The stock fell, and MU, SNDK and INTC slid with it \[6\]. **Exposed names** * **Chips:** TSM and SMH, which are the direct read-through from TSMC's guide. * **Brokers:** SCHW, on earnings and the rate path. * **Broad indexes:** QQQ and SPY, which are hit by yields and PPI. * **Rate-sensitive:** IWM. * **Also in play:** MU, INTC and SNDK on the chip read-through. **Support and resistance** Levels are swing pivots on 6-month daily closes, not intraday highs and lows. |Last|Support|Resistance|Near a level?| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |TSM|430.00|427.66 (-0.5%), 412.38|437.83 (+1.8%), 444.45|**On support**| |SMH|564.74|556.53 (-1.5%), 544.37|575.35 (+1.9%), 594.07|Between levels, closer to resistance| |SCHW|96.80|94.91 (-2.0%), 91.96|99.67 (+3.0%), 102.82|Mid-range| |QQQ|728.95|722.66 (-0.9%), 703.29|741.32 (+1.7%), 759.66|Near support| |IWM|271.37|271.19 (-0.1%), 268.05|284.81 (+5.0%), 293.50|**On support**| **Betting markets** * **Retail sales:** Kalshi puts 35% on a September print above +0.4% and 93% on above -0.4% \[14\]. That points to a soft-to-moderate number, not a blowout. * **PPI y/y:** Polymarket's modal bucket is 5.6% at 41.5%, and 19.5% is on 5.9% or higher \[14\]. A hot print raises the odds of a December hike more than an October one. * **Schwab:** The Polymarket SCHW EPS market is at 41.5%. Its URL slug implies a $1.70 threshold, above the $1.67 consensus \[24\]. A web description of the same event cited 67% \[11\], so I can't reconcile the two. * **TSMC call:** Mention markets are near-certain on "margin" (97%) and "capex" (97.5%) \[13\], so they carry no price signal. * **Gap:** There is no one-day index or single-stock price market. Kalshi's Nasdaq-100 markets only settle at year-end \[25\]. **Most likely to move** * **TSM (largest single move):** It is down 3.51% to $430.00, sitting on 427.66 support that has been touched four times, and the 52-week high is $485.80 \[15\]\[21\]. The revenue number is already known, so the reaction depends on the Q4 guide and 2027 capex. If it holds 427.66 and takes out 437.83, 444.45 is the next level. If it breaks, 412.38 is 4.1% lower. ASML just showed that a raised outlook can still sell off. * **IWM:** It closed at 271.37, 0.1% above 271.19 support. The 6-month low is 268.05, only 1.2% below, and the ETF is down 4.93% over 20 days \[23\]. A hot PPI likely breaks it, and a soft PPI with soft retail sales is the squeeze setup. Resistance at 284.81 is 5% away. * **SCHW:** It has fallen 7.48% over 20 days, and Truist cut its target to $125 from $130 \[22\]\[10\]. Company guidance is for 17.5–18.5% revenue growth \[10\]. It has beaten estimates for several straight quarters \[9\], so a beat clears the nearest resistance at 99.67, +3.0%. A miss goes to 94.91. * **SMH and QQQ:** These are follow-through names. SMH is $564.74, with 575.35 resistance 1.9% above \[18\]. QQQ is $728.95, 0.9% above 722.66, a level touched six times. **Net view (days to weeks):** Risk is two-sided, and I lean toward the upside bounce in TSM and IWM, which are both sitting on support after 2% to 3.5% drops. The strongest bear point is that PPI tomorrow follows a hot CPI, which raises hike risk, and a break of IWM 268.05 or TSM 412.38 would end the bounce case. The upside leans on tight stops under support, since the nearest resistance is only 1.8% above TSM. **Sources** * \[1\] United States Calendar — Web Search * \[2\] U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch — Web Search * \[3\] What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (October 12-16) | Kiplinger — Web Search * \[4\] VIEW Hot September CPI sends rate-hike bets soaring | Reuters — Web Search * \[5\] CPI Report Live Updates: New Insights on Inflation, U.S. Economy and the Fed - The New York Times — Web Search * \[6\] ASML Raises Sales Forecast For A Third Time, But Q3 Revenue Miss Sends Stock Lower: Earnings Selloff Spreads To MU, SNDK, INTC — Web Search * \[7\] TSMC Earnings Q3 2026: Margins and Guidance Under Test — Web Search * \[8\] TSMC 2026 Q3 Quarterly Results - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited — Web Search * \[9\] Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q3 2026 Earnings: Key Metrics and What Could Move the Stock — Web Search * \[10\] Dear Charles Schwab Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for October 15 — Web Search * \[11\] Polymarket — Web Search * \[12\] Prediction markets: Fed rate decision October — Source * \[13\] Prediction markets: TSMC earnings — Source * \[14\] Prediction markets: retail sales PPI September — Source * \[15\] TSM Quote — Live Quote · TSM * \[16\] QQQ Quote — Live Quote · QQQ * \[17\] IWM Quote — Live Quote · IWM * \[18\] SMH Quote — Live Quote · SMH * \[19\] SPY Quote — Live Quote · SPY * \[20\] ^(TNX) Quote — Live Quote · ^(TNX) * \[21\] TSM Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · TSM * \[22\] SCHW Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · SCHW * \[23\] IWM Historical Data (6mo) — Historical Market Data · IWM * \[24\] Prediction markets: Schwab earnings — Source * \[25\] Prediction markets: Nasdaq 100 close October 15 — Source

TSM calls were in fact no the play.

They won't be bad, but it still won't matter. $TSM literally smashes every time and semis barely budge because it's expected at this point.

tsm reports monthly revenue, everything is known. All that will matter is guidance, NVDA and TSM carry the most weight in the semi trade esp, with guidance being the most important.

Man, market closed for barely one hour and my insatiable lust for kawk has returned. Cant wait for the koreans to ram me up the 🍑 ass tonight in a few hours. Then EU wakes up and they can double team me. Then in the morning TSM reports, increases guidance for next year, then can sell off -5% like everyone else. Then the Americans wake up and we can repeat today. And that's a day in the life of a WSB regard. -99%

TSM calls

TSM Earning is tonight right?

TSM will crush earnings per usual, get a 3% bounce, only 3 companies will rally with it, growth tech has another -10% day.

STO SMH Dec 18 2026 500 Put for 10.72 STO TSM Jan-15-27 400 Put for 14.4 STO AVGO Jan-15-27 290 Put for 7.35

surely PPI and TSM save us tomorrow, right....r i g h t

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **TSM** | $465.00 (above) | $430.27 | +8.1% | Fri 3:58 PM ET |