TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stockNYSEADR

Playing the devils advocate here, the market sees any drop in demand as price crush, cascading downward. If neoclouds die (which only the dumb tiny VC backed ones have so far), they will be acquired by creditors and the chips either sold off or consumed and restarted by another neocloud/hyperscaler at currently higher prices than purchase but volume and speed of sale may drop that resale value. This resale/turn on is seen as resupply and demand filling from a direction that isnt a purchase to amd/nvidia, lowering demand signals. Those lowered signals then suggest than the supply chain will weaken and in worst case scenario rapidly pushed to over production and spot prices will hemorrhage while the contracts they have made for 3-10 years start to reneg and drop their prepayments and try to access the spot market again (as happened for memory after the covid boom bust). That being said I personally dont believe it fully, sure Nvidia may have over purchased to secure future TSM slots and memory supply, their prices may have to come down slightly, but it doenst mean that there isnt enormous demand for their products. The avalanche was likely referring to how much flow and direction needed to be done on a monthly basis of inflow outflow and there are products in different levels of under supply like interconnect, along with the Hopper chips being in limbo, not "im getting millions of blackwells a month with no customer". AMD will be free of the FUD from circular financing/spy romance but as you saw on Friday any mention of oversupply from a major (or in this case the biggest) supplier is going to start an outflow. AMD was seen as the alternative for the bad PR but not for oversupply scenario.

This is what I’ve found hilarious in the past couple of weeks. Jensen Huang, the founder and CEO of what was just a few weeks ago the largest company on Earth, is exposed for a scandal involving what could possibly be a Chinese spy (not confirmed by anyone). He steps down this week and all of a sudden everyone is shouting “Fraud!” I do not understand how so many people have such a lack of critical thinking abilities (well, I do - most people are stupid) so as to correlate infidelity with corporate fraud. If NVDA was caught cooking the books, that would undermine the integrity of the entire stock market. If the largest company was lying in their audited financials, what is to say that other large companies aren’t doing the same? If this were to be the case, the entire financial system could collapse as we know it, causing an economic calamity that would make the Great Depression look like nothing in comparison. Then you’ve also got the issue of TSM and ASML. ASML is based in the Netherlands and sells lithography machines to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). TSM is the largest semiconductor foundry on earth by many orders of magnitude and NVDA is their largest customer by far. If NVDA is committing fraud, that would likely require fraudulent activity on the parts of both TSM and ASML. Ergo, this whole asinine thesis that Jensen Huangs promiscuity correlates to fraud at NVDA would require coordinated fraudulent activities across 3 separate companies located in 3 different countries. Pretty stupid logic all around. TLDR: Long NVDA.

Yes, my concern is how companies are disenfranchising people by anthropomorphizing a chatbot as our replacement and ejecting us poors from society. Having our livelihoods threatened is especially insulting whenever we first see these chatbots display their lack of critical thought. Gibberish, or to use the euphemistic shield leveraged by thieving entrepeneurs- hallucinating. It almost feels like a reanimated corpse parroting disjointed quotes from all over the world. Like you mentioned, LLM are not creatures, and lack the complexity that the common person associates with the word "intelligent", a technology that man will not be able to tame within our lifetimes, "actual life forms" (implying that we'd modify existing life forms through genetics). I saw a Youtube video recently about "woolly" mice being given rougher hair in a lab. But really, I'm just really pissed off that I can't build a top of the line desktop videogame computer for under $2000. Someone kill me. I did manage to build a very competitive desktop for under $1000 right before the RAM mafia started blackmailing us for the second time (government called them out the 1st time around, learned that from the journalists "GamersNexus"). I'm also invested in both TSM and QCOM just in case companies succeed at securing more power through a monopoly on technology.

I guess technically though by just owning TSM you win regardless of who’s the leader

I think you mean the names that are actually profiting from AI, two of which have a monopoly or borderline monopoly on the world's most important technology. Also define "slows", none of those names are going to crash if cap ex merely slows, a slowdown is already priced in. IIRC TSM needs like 18% yearly growth to net a good return assuming moderate PE compression, and they are currently growing profits at 50-75% depending on the quarter. If you think cap ex is going to massively slow, then you probably shouldn't be invested in google since that likely means AI did not end up providing end customers with sufficient ROI to justify the investment and GOOG will also underperform.

STO brokenwing IC IWM k=240/260/277/278 35dte $2.00 STO brokenwing IC TSM k=330/360/405/410 28 dte $5.59 close itmCC MS 16 dit (p/l = +$105) open itmCC XOM 28 dte k=160 BTC XLF call sto ccs NVDA k=167.5/170 (to patch itm pcs k=167.5/160) curse jensen

CPU demand has only gone up since 2000 too. More AI/GPU demand doesn’t mean more profits if/as commoditization happens. Amazon, Google, Cerebras, OpenAI, Microsoft, AMD, and others are all making or working on making competing chips. TSM, INTC, Terrafab, and others all working night and day to produce tons more chips. Supply squeezes like we’ve seen in GPU and memory almost always (i can’t think of a counter example?) lead to an oversupply eventually, which leads to cheaper materials and helps increase the utility of the underlying result (AI) at lower costs (commoditization). NVDA has seen record revenue growth and margins the last 3-4 years. Buying today implies a lot of those higher margins and revenue growth is sustainable for the next decade. I don’t think you’re getting much margin of safety here depending on how your view “normalized” long term revenue + growth, and margins. From these levels, will revenue grow 20%/year for a decade while maintaining 60% net margins? Historically normal margins for NVDA were 20-30% on the high end. Of course, if NVDA grows revenue 30% for 10 years while maintaining 60% margins it will undoubtedly be a bargain today, but i’m not sure why that would be a reasonable expectation given all the competition coming (and that will come).

The drama continues. I wonder if this will upset TSM Morris Chang. And produce more AMD chips. >Before His Ouster, Jensen Huang Belittled the Executive Replacing Him - WSJ https://www.wsj.com/tech/jensen-huang-colette-kress-nvidia-ceo-eb289097?eafs_enabled=false

TSM

Michael Burry (Trades, Portfolio) said the grip Nvidia [NVDA](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NVDA/) has on the AI supply chain may be loosening following Jensen Huang's exit as CEO, and he has added to wagers against tech shares. Burry said Nebius (NBIS), TSMC [TSM](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-TSM/), ASML [ASML](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-ASML/) and CoreWeave [CRWV](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-CRWV/) have leaned on Nvidia's dominance and financial backing. He is monitoring whether that influence fades over time**, and he named Broadcom** [**AVGO**](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AVGO/) **and Advanced Micro Devices** [**AMD**](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AMD/) **as possible winners.**

LRCX is a chip equipment manufacturer with a huge moat and market share. Their biggest customers are TSM and MU

Well that dip was bigger than I expected. Need TSM to come back to about 407.50 to save me rn

ASML TSM KLAC ADI if I was going to be concentrated in semis.

ASML, TSM, GOOGL, NVDA. Feel good holding all four

Same TSM ASML have very good books they actually if anything undervalued they have backlog of orders

I only feel comfortable holding ASML and TSM

How? All the production is bottleneck at TSM, SKH and MU.

TSM

Jensen Huang’s abrupt resignation on November 12, 2026—following revelations of extramarital affairs with a subordinate and an alleged Chinese intelligence asset, alongside federal probes into chip diversions—marks the most seismic leadership vacuum in Silicon Valley history.  With Elon Musk publicly stating it *"would be an honor"* to hire Huang, and a potential \~$3.4 trillion SpaceX–Tesla merger reportedly targeting a December announcement, Huang's next move will reshape the global semiconductor and AI landscape.  1. Retirement (most likely ) Given the immediate legal and political fallout—including a closed-door Congressional briefing over $4.8 billion in chips routed to Singapore and active DOJ investigations—Huang faces an unavoidable period of laying low. At 63 and worth over $150 billion, he has no financial need to work, though his notoriously relentless work ethic makes permanent retirement unlikely unless legal settlements force it.  2. Starting a New AI Chip Company Huang could deploy tens of billions of his own capital—backed by sovereign wealth funds—to build a next-generation semiconductor company Of course, he’d have to cash out every single Nvidia share before making that move. 3. Becoming CEO of Terafab This is the most explosive and plausible "revenge" scenario. Musk’s joint SpaceX–Tesla venture in Texas—aiming to build an end-to-end logic, memory, and packaging mega-foundry targeting 1 million wafers per month—desperately lacks veteran semiconductor leadership. Musk has already signaled openness to bringing Huang into the fold.  4. Becoming CEO of a Merged SpaceX and Tesla With SpaceX (valued around $1.9T) and Tesla (\~$1.5T) reportedly negotiating a record-shattering merger, handing operational control of the combined entity to Huang would mirror Tim Cook’s operational stewardship of Apple—freeing Musk to act as Chief Product/Technology Architect.  5. CEO of TSM TSMC’s chairman first offered Jensen Huang the CEO job back in 2013, and he turned it down because he was too busy building Nvidia. Well, his schedule just cleared up.

The only thing is he is 64 years old now. These years he frequently goes back to Taiwan probably due to his family, nostalgia and great food. I am not sure if he wants to fight back in the shit pool again. He may end up being accepted by TSM.

Nvidia’s Key Suppliers IP: $ARM Fab: $TSM, $INTC Memory: $MU, $SNDK, $WDC Packaging: $ASX, $AMKR, $CAMT Equipment: $KLAC, $LRCX, $ASML, $KEYS Networking: $COHR, $GLW, $FN, $LITE, $APH Servers OEMs: $DELL, $SMCI, $JBL Power Systems: $FLEX, $MAAS, $VRT Power Electronics: $STM, $ADI, $MPWR, $NVTS, $ON The real AI trade is the entire stack

Translation of just the text in mandarin seen in the 1st and 3rd notification: "Earnings notification" (no stock name). Translation of the 2nd notification (full text): >**American Depositary Receipt (ADR) Pass-Through Fees** Account U\*\*\*\*6908 recently traded the following American Depositary Receipt (ADR) position: [TSM@IBKRATS](mailto:TSM@IBKRATS). ADR positions may be subject to pass-through fees. Please visit our FAQ... Now I'm a bit confused, u/Objective-Cap5902 please clarify if you detected any change to the language settings in the phone or in the IBKR app, and if you also see these notifications in mandarin in the Client Portal and in the Desktop apps.

Here's my guess: Jensen knows the limitations of Nvidia, the risks of competition closing in, and the ways in which nvidia's architecture and design could potentially hold it back. I think there's actually a large chance that Jensen will take his $160 billion, hand pick a hyper-focused hyperintelligent team of Nvidia loyalists, and build the next generation of chip company. His relationships with hundreds of suppliers will transport 100% over to his new company, and his ability to get Fab allocation from TSM will remain strong with this new entity. The company will explode onto the scene out of nowhere and eventually become a challenger to Nvidia.

buy chip stocks-sans TSM

I was more alarmed by that than his side pieces. 😂 There is zero percent chance he had enough time to speak to SIXTY DIRECT REPORTS with any sort of actual connection or understanding in a given day, unless they were titles in name only with him driving everything anyway. Hopefully one of the 60 can get their notes together for Nov 17. 😅 What’s interesting to me is I assumed he’d maintain a board seat. He is not. He only owns a 3% stake… so not majority shareholder. (Blackrock. They already replaced him on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was still exerting influence from behind the scenes, but they really did everything to remove him from all avenues that left him with potential power. Who knows, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up back on the board in six months. That is if he’s not working for Elon, or TSM.