TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Worth buying TSM now or should I wait

Seems your thesis is this current AI rollout, I would go TSM (geo risk) as a general toll booth or Amazon/Microsoft for the application layer.

The market has become much more selective over the past month. Instead of chasing every hot name, I'm trying to focus on companies with strong long term catalysts. A few stocks that I think deserve attention: NVDA Still the core AI infrastructure leader. AVGO Benefiting from AI networking and custom chips. MU Memory demand continues to improve with AI adoption. TSM The backbone of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. AMZN Cloud, AI, and a diversified business model. NBIS One of the more interesting AI infrastructure growth stories if execution continues. I'm not saying these are guaranteed winners, but they all have clear long term narratives supported by business execution rather than hype alone. AI infrastructure spending and cloud investment remain key themes, while recent earnings have reinforced demand in several parts of the ecosystem. So here's my question: If you could only pick ONE stock to hold for the next 3 5 years, which one would it be and why?

China's whole military purpose is also to only invade Taiwan.
Also Taiwan's military is in the dust compared to China's. They havent really innovated, their infrastructure is like shit and most of their economy is only standing thanks to TSM

Buffet bought TSM at about $74 and sold at $73. He lost money at TSM trades. Now TSM is $420. He would have 450% return.

YES FOR PHONES, but do u need state of the art sensors made for 2026 phones in physical ai? =NO, furthermore samsung + omnivions integrated (china) also compete there, and then there is lidar.. tbh i feel this is kinda a flip, there is not moat SO FAR, so maybe sony is a good play but tbh i'm not sure, i'd rather buy TSM / NVDA / HYNIX if i want to play the ai
Although sony has many other businesses and the stock could be undervalued.. but i don't think it's the best play for AI.

My newest is Figma. I started working with a new UX designer, and they decided to use AI prototyping instead of Figma. It's been an awful experience. Figma isn't getting replaced any time soon, and I'm going to go as far as say that UX design is going to be the last thing that is replaced by AI in software engineering.
I also recently did a full web design in Adobe Illustrator. That was an old workflow I used years back, and I got an itch to try it again. That is woefully inadequate and I'll never try that again.
Figma is the only viable tool in this space now, so on that alone, I repositioned my personal non-retirement portfolio with 10% FIG.
I funded it by selling off one of my oldest stocks, TSM. It's a crazy move, I know, but I never took any profits and I didn't see much more upside potential there.

I'd probably slow down on the timming-the-bottom strategy and keep most of the money in quality names. GOOGL, TSM, BHP and $1378.HK (China Hongqiao) are a few I'd research first - Hongqiao is a new name but so interesting. They're an aluminum play with strong cash flow, dividends and buybacks, rather than just trying to catch a dip.

The whole global economy goes to shit if China invades Taiwan not just TSM

Ooo I like this. Imma give you 5 and I want you to pick one and tell me why.
1. NVDA
2. TSM
3. ARM
4. ASML
5. SMCI

You only need ask yourself whether it's US or China that will be hit harder by TSM falling. Also what if TSM doesn't actually fall in the end and ends up becoming used by China in some way? They say they have some kill switch but China could just infiltrate TSM and prevent it from happening.
Anyway the initial shock of an invasion would just tank TSM from early investor reactions so it doesnt matter from a bet-wise trading strategy

If they started.
Making chips is effectively voodoo magic. It’s difficult, and took the combined efforts of an entire nations engineers to pull off what is an engineering miracle.
Trade works because it allows specialization and deep understanding of what is being done, both in NVDA’s chip design and TSM’s production. Neither could do it as well alone.
Now let’s say NVDA does the stupid thing and invests in chip production. How much CAPEX and time do they need to become a fraction as good as TSM, and why would I want that as an investor? Hell - reinvest in your own designs, or do stock BB.

IMHO the biggest MOAT has ASML. China is trying hard to catch up, but currently they are only where ASML has been ten years ago. And TSM would only buy from China, if Taiwan is conquered, which will most likely destroy the TSM-factories anyway.
Veritasium made a good video about ASML: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUHjLxm3V0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUHjLxm3V0)

bad day for NVDA calls, after news of Microsoft working with TSM to build more of their own chips

an invasion is more unlikely to happen than you think. China is in mostly good standing with the world right now; why would they ruin their consistent import/export, no sanctions, unlimited money maker for a highly risky and costly amphibious invasion that would likely result in a world war type event? China is smarter than that, they are going to take Taiwan from the inside over the next few decades. TSM will be fine.

TSMC, $TSM, reported revenue for July of 467.58 billion New Taiwan dollars ($14.5 billion), up 44.7% year on year, per CNBC

**TSM** revenue surges 45%, SP is limp... WTF is going on ?! so much for efficient markets

**Premarket + early Post Open**
The indices are down, oil is up and the VIX is up 44 cents to 15.34.  No real surprise as the talks with Iran have disintegrated.   I rather expected more of a negative open that we are seeing to develop, but we can easily se the markets fade much lower easily.   We are basically at the same point we were or have been for several weeks regarding actual oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, but the potential for resolution has faded.  
AMD, NVDA and MU are all down this morning to varying degrees with AMD taking the biggest hit.  SNDK got an upgrade to a Buy and is up this morning.  TSM had a 45% increase in July sales citing AI demand, so they are doing well.  JP Morgan upped their price target for the year on the S&P to 8K from 7800, so their outlook improved.  I doo see the chip makers AMAT and LRCX jumping this morning likely on the TSM news as a positive.  MSFT is decently green as well
The market felt indecisive to me on Friday even with the indices at or hitting new ATH’s.  Today may play out into a bit of a retracement after a good week or the start of a fade lower based on oil prices.  We just need to consider where we end the week and if the markets can continue to push us a bit higher in these conditions.  I am hoping for a small controlled lift in the VIX and not a 10% jump higher pulling the rug out from under the markets. 
Let’s hope the market find some footing.
JW, sorry to hear about your developer situations. That is crazy to get both geographically diverse sites hit.
 

MSFT in talk with TSM to ramp up chip productions

Been collecting shares for the last 4 months. The TSM news has been known for awhile already though.