TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
stock NYSE ADR

Well, I have been investing in the market for the last 23 yrs. I have been aggressive the last 3 yrs. I got in early on tech giants like Amd, Alab, Anet, Arm, Avgo, Apld, NVDA, Mrvl, MU, Docn, Intc, Pltr, Smci, Spcx, Rklb, TSM, STX, VRT, GLW. Today, I crossed over 1.1 million and decided to sell everything but 200 shares of Nvda. The rest is sitting in SGOV earning me 3,100 monthly in divvys until my retirement in 2 yrs. It has been one hell of a roller coaster ride with all the big ups/ downs. I am going to leave my other brokerage portfolio to ride with 148k in it. Good luck to all navigating thru the Wall Street casino! Don’t fall in love with any particular stock, take profits, re invest in something wks with upside potential. Good luck all, I’m just chilling from here to retirement!

That would send TSM up 100%

That's a significant reason why I'm hesitant to buy. I don't feel like I don't have the expertise to evaluate if they will have a moat or if they will be on a perpetual cycle of having to sink a ton of money into training. I prefer my investments in ASML/TSM where if AI is very effective in boosting productivity, it's hard to imagine they won't outperform the market. There are some scenarios for sure, but it's less questionable.

Portfolio: $11,060.42
Today: up $296.64 (up 2.76%). Best day of the three so far. 26 agents live.
Business As Usual, $2,624.80, up $87.94 (up 3.47%), biggest single contributor. This is the one that holds the S&P 500 and only flips into a 3x leveraged S&P 500 fund when NY weather reads normal for the season, read off Kalshi temperature markets. It sold SPY and bought UPRO this morning, so it caught almost all of today's rally levered.
FAANG+ Momentum, $2,545.59, up $120.79 (up 4.98%), the single biggest dollar gain in the book. It rotated out of AMZN and GOOGL into META and NVDA on the daily momentum rerank, then rode the move.
The Silicon Overdrive, $103.50, up $8.94 (up 9.45%), best percent day. Small experimental sleeve targeting 2x the daily return of a US semiconductor index, so a strong chip day shows up loud here.
AI Picks & Shovels, $1,059.71, up $32.09 (up 3.12%). Weekly reweight landed again, sold ANET and DELL, added AMD, more NVDA, more SMCI, and a new TSM position.
Founder Mode, $260.89, up $11.54 (up 4.63%). Sold COIN, HOOD, META, and RKLB, bought CRM and DASH. Rebalances weekly across fifteen founder led companies.
Funny one: NFL Fantasy Agent, down $1.15 (down 6.02%) on an $18 position. It bought yes contracts on Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb hitting reception and yardage thresholds Sunday. Deebo screwing over my fantasy team and Kalshi.
Pelosi Tracker, High Profile Congress, and CT Scanner all did their usual rotations off fresh disclosures and trial data, small moves either way, nothing dramatic.
Two up days and one neutral day in, net solidly green, still tells you nothing about day 100. Posting every day either way.

There's something very interesting brewing in the AI race.

You may have noticed a recent wave of "AI doomer-ism" hitting the main stream media; calls for slowdown, needs for safety, an "apocalyptic threat" being imminent.

At the same time, we have emergent capabilities; millennium problems being solved, the hugging face hack, new spatial robotics, biological breakthroughs (Alzheimer's progress!).

So, what's changed recently?

The first thing to understand is that our current AI has two components. The model, and the harness.

The model is the brain - think of it kind of like "IQ" - a measure of your potential intelligence. The model is the general infrastructure for thought, but hasn't actually learned anything. This translates to memory and compute (hardware).

The harness is the school. It's everything you put around the brain to make it useful. For us it's flashcards, teachers, lived experiences. For computers that's the training iterations they do.

For the past year+ we've seen frontier companies focusing on the harness. We essentially gave an average brain an extremely strict study routine with the best teachers. It got better at passing tests, but it's "IQ" never got higher.

Well, that's changing now. Frontier models have switched back to expanding the model instead of the harness (as hardware supply is coming back online).
The frontier labs are ready to expand the hardware again, and I think todays big chip rally was your first sign of it (In case Cap-ex staying high wasn't your first clue).
Other than SOXX and general hardware, what are your plays for focusing on the inference side of the AI trade vs. the software side.
I've made good money timing the previous hardware top and diversifying into software companies setup to benefit (bought both MSFT and META bottom in spades (400k+).
I already have the bulk of my hardware positions in AMAT, CHPX, CHAT, ASML, TSM, etc. Those are all known. I took a smaller position in POET (I see them coming back in the momentum trade with inference in focus). I'd like some more smaller names that may not be on the obvious radar; please no NBIS or other parroted names.

Busy day! Market moved up and I took many (for me) off early. Closed 8 that were well over 50% profit and added 2 trades.
|TQQQ|5 Oct 23 32d 68 Put BTC|1.60 db|
|:-|:-|:-|
|NVDA|2 Oct 23 32d 210 Put BTC|2.49 db|
|TSM|2 Oct 23 32d 400 Put BTC|3.30 db|
|TSM|2 Oct 23 32d 400 Put BTC|3.30 db|
|DRAM|\-4 Oct 30 39d 52 Put STO|1.22 cr|
|AMD|2 Oct 23 32d 450 Put BTC|1.97 db|
|DRAM|\-1 Oct 30 39d 52 Put STO|1.22 cr|
|DRAM|2 Oct 16 25d 52 Put BTC|0.71 db|
|TQQQ|5 Oct 16 25d 76 Put BTC|3.50 db|
|SOXX|2 Oct 16 25d 560 Call BTC|6.40 cr|
||\-2 Oct 30 39d 560 Call STO||
|SPCX|1 Oct 16 25d 160 Put BTC|10.75 db|

Buy GRAB and TSM instead. ADBE will be a buy below $200 bucks. 🤔

If one doesn't wish to invest in the main producers of semiconductors or SSD's ($NVDA, $AVGO, $TSM, $SNDK, etc.), nor the hyperscalers ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $ORCL, etc.), then
investments into power suppliers and/or construction companies--- that are well-established and will be needed for data center buildouts--- could offer opportunities that aren't (yet) attracting much attention.
I am liking $VST and $MTZ, just to name a couple....
$FIX was in the stratosphere ('nosebleed seats'), but has now gotten back down to a much more reasonable level, as well.
GLTA

Buy GRAB and TSM instead. 💰😎Nike is gone….. 📉

Buy GRAB and TSM instead. 

I prefer SMH over SOXX because there is more weighting towards NVDA and TSM. SOXX carries too much weight in AMD and MU for my liking. Not anything against those companies, but AMD has very high price premium and they haven't quite found that NVDA like anchor in the AI space just yet. MU still carries that cyclical worry. But NVDA and TSM are more or less the bedrock of semi space AI buildout.
I don't really see any issue with holding some weight of all of QQQM, NVDA and either SOXX or SMH. I'd probably suggest you add VOO in there as well.
Disclosure: Own QQQM, NVDA, SMH, VOO

Nobody in this group is ignoring any risk. Everyone is well aware and have chose their own risk appetite. Market always has risk. There are value plays in this market at the moment. GRAB and TSM being one of them. Grab is at an all time low and TSM is still undervalued by about 35%.

AMD \~1T vs GEV & CAT & BE & GLW \~840B
You can buy the fabless chip designer (only moat is willingness to use warrants to secure TSM wafer capacity) or the bulk of the power and connectivity needed for the DC buildout for 15% less. Market is dumb

After 250 years of US independence, all are not intelligent enough, need to spend $5-10 Trillion to become super intelligent
Even 60 % population can’t afford $2000 for emergency, can’t afford gas, groceries & housing &neglecting basic human needs.
$AMD $MU $AVGO $NVdA $TSM see the market cap pump

Awesome point buddy. Even though TSM is the most weighted part of the IEMG or AVEM, its valuation is reasonable. I am more worried about the exposure to Korean companies like sk hyinx and Samsung electronics

Omg I was just doing my screening hehe would love to share!
Sectors to the upside: crypto ($BLOK), cyber security ($CIBR) and semis ($SOXX) in the order of strength
Sectors I'm looking for turnaround: Space ($NASA) and Photonics ($FOTO)
Then I'm just looking at the top names from these sectors, but still tryna buy at 21d EMA or 50d SMA support.
As for the stocks:
Semis: SMTC, UMC, AMD the strongest but overextended. MU, MRVL, AEHR, TSM are more actionable but not the direct leaders yet.
Blockchain: PURE, MSTR, HOOD are the strongest but again overextended. Honestly here I would just trade the leaders when they pull back to 21d EMA.
Cyber security: OKTA, CRWD, FTNT, NET are prolly the leaders. I would trade them if they fall down to 21d or other stocks like ANET
other notable mentions I'm tracking: MSFT, MAGS/FNGS (this I think is gonna be a leader! I already have position on this), DRAM

VT or VTI/VXUS split. If you want to be riskier watch the leaders of those funds and do a tilt towards those tickers (NDVA, TSM, AAPL)

SMH is more top-heavy than SOXX. By allowing its winning positions to run larger before rebalancing, it has consistently outperformed SOXX over the past five years.
SOXX has outperformed SMH this year, because all the smaller companies have made more gains than the large ones (NVDA,TSM, AVGO).
I think over long term SMH will continue to outperform SOXX.

|Company|Ticker|TTM net margin|Dividend yield|2026 YTD|Market cap|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**NVIDIA**|NVDA|63.66%|0.47%|\+11.71%|$5.14T|
|**CME Group**|CME|63.12%|1.89% regular|\+4.00%|$99.79B|
|**Texas Pacific Land**|TPL|60.32%|0.65%|\+22.59%|$25.85B|
|**Visa**|V|50.35%|0.71%|\+8.31%|$710.91B|
|**Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing**|TSM|49.92%|≈1.1%|\+30.79%|$1.94T|
|**VeriSign**|VRSN|49.77%|1.09%|\+24.14%|$27.19B|
|**Brookfield Asset Management**|BAM|48.89%|4.38%|−12.76%|$74.76B|
|**Royal Gold**|RGLD|48.05%|0.76%|\+12.31%|$21.10B|
|**Mastercard**|MA|46.34%|0.61%|\+2.00%|$504.75B|
|**Futu Holdings**|FUTU|46.20%|2.39% irregular|−37.74%|$15.58B|

It is not Memory vs GPU. MU is a good choice, but so is NVDA, and so is TSM, if you believe in AI. SNDK can be a good trade, but more speculative.