SU
Suncor Energy, Inc.
stock NYSE

**The Fearless Forecast for March 12, 2026 for DJIA is:**
*(SU = Small Up; LU = Large Up; SD = Small Down; LD = Large Down)*
* **Bucket:** Down Streak (2)
* **Volatility score:** **≈** 1.24
* **Probabilities:** SU ≈ 29% LU ≈ 13% SD ≈ 32% LD ≈ 26%
* **Expected return:** **≈** −0.11%
* **Projected close:** **≈** 46,950 – 47,650
* **Directional bias:** **≈** 58% Down / 42% Up
Previous DJIA close: 47,417.27
**MAR 11 RECAP:** A choppy day of consolidation.  The open produced a dramatic Sellers' fake out.  The opening downdraft was stops being hit, not a trend change to the downside.  Long sideways drift in the afternoon stores UP energy for Mar 12.  The 2nd sharp drop looked again like Buyers' getting trapped at resistance and Algos coming in to hit their stops (drop was short and had no follow-through).
**For Mar 12 Fearless opines:**  For Thur., Bucket has shifted to "Down streak = 2", which increases the likelihood of trend continuation (down) rather than immediate reversal.  The Bucket change shows that SELLERS have modest momentum.  Wed.'s long sideways drift stored energy for a rally UP as the afternoon sell-off had no punch, it just swept through Buyers' stops and disappeared.  Likely a range bound day (roughly **46,950 to 47,650)** despite elevated volatility.
**Opening Hour Indication:** 10:30 or 11:00 AM (NY) : 
**10:00 AM:** 
**10:30 AM:** 
**11:00** (maybe)
**3:30 Update:** (maybe)

**The Fearless Forecast for March 12, 2026 for DJIA is:**
*(SU = Small Up; LU = Large Up; SD = Small Down; LD = Large Down)*
* **Bucket:** Down Streak (2)
* **Volatility score:** **≈** 1.24
* **Probabilities:** SU ≈ 29% LU ≈ 13% SD ≈ 32% LD ≈ 26%
* **Expected return:** **≈** −0.11%
* **Projected close:** **≈** 46,950 – 47,650
* **Directional bias:** **≈** 58% Down / 42% Up
Previous DJIA close: 47,417.27
**MAR 11 RECAP:** A choppy day of consolidation.  The open produced a dramatic Sellers' fake out.  The opening downdraft was stops being hit, not a trend change to the downside.  Long sideways drift in the afternoon stores UP energy for Mar 12.  The 2nd sharp drop looked again like Buyers' getting trapped at resistance and Algos coming in to hit their stops (drop was short and had no follow-through).
**For Mar 12 Fearless opines:**  For Thur., Bucket has shifted to "Down streak = 2", which increases the likelihood of trend continuation (down) rather than immediate reversal.  The Bucket change shows that SELLERS have modest momentum.  Wed.'s long sideways drift stored energy for a rally UP as the afternoon sell-off had no punch, it just swept through Buyers' stops and disappeared.  Likely a range bound day (roughly **46,950 to 47,650)** despite elevated volatility.
**Opening Hour Indication:** 10:30 or 11:00 AM (NY) : 
**10:00 AM:** 
**10:30 AM:** 
**11:00** (maybe)
**3:30 Update:** (maybe)

**The Fearless Forecast for March 11, 2026 for DJIA is:**
(SU = Small Up; LU = Large Up; SD = Small Down; LD = Large Down)
* **Bucket:** Choppy / Alternating (no active streak ≥2)
* **Volatility score:** ≈ **1.18**
* **Probabilities** SU ≈ **34%** LU ≈ **16%** SD ≈ **27%** LD ≈ **23%**
* **Expected return:** ≈ **+0.07%**
* **Projected close:** **47,350 – 48,150**
* **Directional bias:** **50.5% Up / 49.5% Down (essentially neutral)**
Previous DJIA close: 47,706.51
**MAR 10 RECAP:** The stabilization day played out pretty much as forecast. Sellers pressed the open down, Buyers countered, and market went into sideways drift. Note the 2:00 PM selloff - just after Europe's markets closed. Buyers got trapped at the upper bound of the drift as Europe's close thinned the order book and algo-trades swept in to hit the Buyers' stops, dropping the market fast, but with no real selling driving the downturn. Hence the sell-off stopped when stops were cleaned out. The closing half hour was choppy, up and down, typical of a stabilization day.
**For Mar 11, Fearless opines:**  On Wed., look for **range-bound trading**, moderate volatility\*\*, and no strong directional edge\*\*. The most likely outcomes are **Small Up or Small Down**, meaning another choppy consolidation day around the 47,400–48,000 zone.
**Opening Hour Indication:** 10:30 or 11:00 AM (NY) on Mar 11. See you then.
For the "Political Put" Supporting the market, see **Conversation** below.

SU, calling Trump's bluff