RE
Everest Re Group, Ltd.
stock NYSE

Bättre sent än aldrig! Jag satt länge och tittade på alla RE aktier sighs dag för dag, kände hela tiden att jag missat båten. Sen tog jag ett djupt andetag och köpte mer och mer och mer.

>WE'RE NOT SEEING A CREDIT-FUELED BOOM IN THE ECONOMY

FIRE ohne RE: Finanzielle Freiheit ohne Frühpension

Was this YOU'RE opportunity to sound smart?
FYI I was using google voice to text.

Alles gut. Alles stabil. Nix Blase! 🐂🚀
GaLiGrü Tanja IhrSicherNichtVonDerClownsorangeBeeinflusste Bundesstaatlichen Reserve System 🤗
FED'S BARR: WE'RE NOT SEEING A CREDIT-FUELED BOOM IN THE ECONOMY.
FED'S BARR: OVERALL HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS ARE LOOKING OK.
FED'S BARR: THUS FAR, BALANCE-SHEET RUNOFF HAS GONE QUITE SMOOTHLY.

Asking was $365 and we snagged it for $295. RE is tanking where we live, already a LCOL area. It was near-instant equity for all-time-high gold. No-brained.

That’s a solid swap. RE not so hot rn. Prob got a good deal and, let’s face it, gold and real land are tight siblings Afa investment goes.

WE'RE GOING TO 0!!!

Can you provide the details into how you calculated these percentages? Perhaps provide the "correct" version spreadsheet?
I'm heavily researching 72t atm and it will certainly be part of my RE picture.

Die Metropole Rhein-Main und insbesondre Frankfurt hat eine gewaltige Wirtschaftskraft. Da kommt halt viel zusammen:
\- Mächtiger Finanzsektor, wo richtig viel Geld gemacht wird mit den größten Namen alle konzentriert in Frankfurt
\- Industrie inklusive viel Pharma, was auch nochmal ordentlich Geld abwirft
\- Dazu noch überraschend viele (sehr) Reiche. Ob die nun durch die Umgebung reich wurden oder aufgrund der Anbindung hier leben keine Ahnung. Die Villenviertel sind schon krass und nicht einmal selten. Und wo so viel Geld sich versammelt, wird die Nachfrage halt auch gut nach oben reguliert
Dieser Effekt ist ja bei den meisten Hauptstädten, wenn man sich andere Länder anschaut. Fairerweise muss man auch sagen so rein von Anbindung und Wirtschaftskraft wirkt Frankfurt auch viel mehr wie eine Hauptstadt. Plus ein Bahnhofsviertel, das das obligatorische Ghettofeeling auch noch mitbringt.
Die komplette Top 10, die du da siehst ist per S-Bahn und teil zusätzlich noch mit RE an den Frankfuter Hauptbahnhof angebunden. Die Reichen wohnen dann halt eher nicht in der Frankfurter Innenstadt sondern lieber außerhalb in der Villa am Hang oder waldnah.

MP and TMQ have far more room to run. Just check the latest announcement from China about RE export control

Except for real estate and bonds. RE and bonds have lagged and in general all "safe" assets have lagged including value stocks. The reason, in my opinion, is generally for "safe" assets you're paying for a higher likelihood of preserving your dollars. Since the dollar itself is crumbling, "safe" aren't so safe anymore. Think there's a black swan-esque effect here that's yet to come.
We're only seeing the tip of the spear.

Why is comparing leveraged RE to unleveraged stock “not right?” That’s very normal in RE, and part of the appeal. You will get smaller margins in RE compared to stocks but that’s not a bad thing if you have (safe) leverage through reliable tenants.
Using leverage in stocks is riskier than using leverage in RE. One margin call and you have blown up your portfolio.

only 5 ? WE'RE DOOOMED!!!!!

Here's a fairly straightforward example. Let's take MP in 2023. When I looked at it then, I found it had a large share of the global RE market and then I found a lot of credible RE industry research indicating a huge increase in demand for RE products over a 5 year window. 
So I mathed out how much market expansion alone could increase MP's net income by the end of the expansion period. Then I was lazy and applied MP's 2023 PE multiple to estimate the future value of the stock. 
The moat for MP was at the time it was the only RE mine in north america and china was beginning to cut the US off of RE products. The key assumptions I made were: 1. That MP could ramp up production to meet the increased demand; 2. That MP's cost structure would not change during this period; and 3. Relative share among RE producers would also remain unchanged. 

Except they bought in 2009-2010, have over 100 properties and a ridiculous amount of cash flow. All debt free.
You have to consider both price and cash flow. You can’t just look at RE prices and compare to S&P, you’d have to look at the dividends of the S&P as well. And the NOI generated. Compare it all.
The thing is they bought during a distressed time. And could easily do so with cash. That is what true RE investors do, wait for the RE to go on sale because it’s so easy to value it almost never does.
There’s times where RE can make sense, and the majority of the time equities make more sense, but not always.
COVID also showed that landlords could not kick tenants out for non payment in many states and that residential real estate was less of an investment than it is a responsibility.

Any asset/investment can be levered to manipulate cash on cash returns.
Cash on cash returns ignore the true economic costs and return potential of the asset. I see RE investors and brokers talk about this all the time.
One can do the same buying securities on margin, and ignore total capital employed and interest and frictional/transactional costs, but it’s the returns on debt plus equity that actually matter. The intrinsic return of the assets operation.
Otherwise what you’re saying is if you had 100% of the cash to buy RE, regardless of cap rate, it would always be better to only buy a “piece” of the equity and lever up the rest to achieve higher cash on cash returns.
If the whole of an asset isn’t priced to generate a sufficient return, no fraction of the asset or is worth buying with cash or debt.

Sometimes I wish my balls were bigger...RE: AMD 230C OCT10 1.65 this morning on the dip

Its a thesis that is driving this AI bubble. The thesis is there is insatiable demand for AI computing power now and for the foreseeable future (many years of more demand then supply). The bubble will continue until something occurs that invalidates the thesis (obv valuation doesn't matter). When or how that happens is hard to say. It may happen in private credit where some ai related entity defaults on a big loan. Maybe one of the big boys hints at pulling back spending. But there will eventually be small data points here and there that indicate there is either too much supply or not enough demand to warrant the spending. Every sell off until the thesis is broken is a buying op. Keep in mind that the res RE market was dog shit for a couple years before the mortgages became toxic and actually got everyone's attention. Things held up so well for so long (it was infuriating) then overnight everything just went off the rails. Same basic premise for the 2000 bubble
To answer your question directly - there are too many pros behind the benchmarks for this to roll over before year end unless something really blows a very wide and undeniable hole in the AI thesis. So no I doubt anything is imminent. but then again..... cheers

THEY'RE RAPING THE DOGS, THEY'RE RAPING THE CATS