PGR
Progressive Corporation
stock NYSE

Root Insurance ($ROOT) delivered a transformative Q1 2025 earnings report, marking a pivotal quarter defined by significant financial growth and strategic milestones. With substantial beats on revenue and earnings, a notable surge in policies in force, and an expanding partnership network, Root is solidifying its position as a disruptive force in the auto insurance industry. This quarter’s performance highlights Root’s technological edge and operational discipline, setting the stage for long-term leadership and a potential price target exceeding $2,000.00 per share. Below, we analyze Q1 results, management’s commentary, and the growth levers that position Root to challenge legacy insurers like Progressive ($PGR).Q1 2025 Results: Robust Financial PerformanceRoot’s Q1 2025 financials significantly outperformed expectations, showcasing strong growth across key metrics:
* Revenue: $349.4 million vs. consensus $306.79 million, a $42.61 million beat.
* Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.15 vs. consensus $0.03, a 4000%+ beat ($18.4 million net income vs. expected $450,000).
* Net Income and EBITDA: Net income reached $18.4 million, with EBITDA at $31.9 million, despite a $51.5 million increase in sales and marketing expenses to drive customer acquisition, which slightly tempered net income.
* Stockholder’s Equity: Grew by $25 million, with $609.4 million in cash and equivalents, reflecting a strong balance sheet.
* **Premium Growth:**
* Unearned premiums increased $66.4 million QoQ to $420.3 million from $353.9 million. This is a helpful insight to next quarter’s earnings.
* Written premiums rose $80.1 million to $410.8 million from $330.5 million, a 24% QoQ increase.
* **Loss and LAE Ratios:**
* Gross loss ratio improved to 56.1% from 56.9%, best-in-class among peers.
* Gross Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) ratio fell to 6.7% from 6.9%, signaling operational efficiency.
* Policies in Force (PIF): Reached 453,800, up 38,938 from 414,862—a 9.4% QoQ increase, breaking from prior quarters’ flat growth (407,313, 406,283, 401,255).
This robust growth in premiums, PIF, and profitability underscores Q1 as a pivotal moment, demonstrating Root’s ability to scale effectively while maintaining industry-leading loss ratios.Q1 2025 Management Commentary: Strategic MomentumRoot’s leadership provided clear insights into the drivers of Q1’s success and ongoing strategic initiatives:
* Geographic Expansion: CEO Alex Timm announced that Root is pending regulatory approvals in Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, bringing its footprint to 39 states. In a separate interview, Jason Shapiro, VP of BD, has expressed confidence in achieving nationwide coverage by 2026.
* Partnership Growth: Timm highlighted that Root now has over 20 partners, including recent additions like Hyundai and Experian. He noted that the partnership channel grew more than 100% year-over-year, with strong contributions from financial services, automotive, and agent subchannels.
* Direct Channel Performance: Timm attributed Q1’s PIF growth to strong direct channel results, driven by seasonality and optimized data funnels that enhanced customer acquisition cost (CAC) efficiency.
These comments emphasize the strategic execution behind Q1’s significant growth, positioning Root for continued expansion.
**Outlook:** A Disruptive Force in InsuranceRoot’s Q1 2025 performance is a springboard for its ambition to reshape the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Its technological and strategic advantages position it to outpace legacy insurers, offering a compelling long-term investment opportunity.
**Technological Leadership:** The Holy Grail of InsuranceRoot’s closed-loop underwriting system, powered by telematics, AI, and automation, delivers a best-in-class 56.1% loss ratio, far surpassing legacy insurers mired in outdated COBOL systems. This technological edge enables Root to achieve superior pricing accuracy and operational efficiency. Long-term, with ROOT”s technological advantage, I could see ROOT achieving a 75% combined ratio, driven by its industry-leading loss ratios and an expense ratio potentially below 15% (compared to GEICO’s 10.8% expense ratio in Q1 2025). This would make Root 2-5X more profit-efficient per policy than legacy peers. This would mean, it would take a single Root policy to potentially equal 5 competitor policies. Let that sink in, as this allows ROOT to gain significant income off a small amount of PIF growth. It won’t take much PIF growth for ROOT to contend with its legacy peers by income and market cap. This efficiency, akin to Tesla’s disruption of the auto industry by eliminating inefficiencies. Root’s modern tech stack also allows rapid code changes, making it an ideal partner for embedded insurance and agency channels. This agility enables Root to integrate seamlessly, adapt quickly, and offer competitive pricing that undercuts rivals.
**Partnership Dominance: A Growing Ecosystem**
Root’s embedded partnership strategy is a key growth lever. Their technological advantage makes them the most ideal insurer to work with due to agility and efficiency. Its recent partnerships with Hyundai, the third-largest auto group (including Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis), and Experian, which leverages data on hundreds of millions of consumers, are transformative. The Hyundai partnership enables embedded insurance at the point of vehicle sale or lease, potentially surpassing the scale of Root’s existing Carvana partnership. Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis collectively sell and lease millions of vehicles annually. Experian’s marketplace could drive significant policy growth due to Root’s superior pricing. With over 20 partners and a partnership channel doubling year-over-year, Root is poised to secure additional high-profile collaborations with auto manufacturers, financial services, or tech platforms.
The agency channel, publicly launched in Q4 2024, is scaling rapidly, with 13–14 daily on boardings, according to VP Jason Shapiro in a recent interview. Shapiro believes capturing half the agency market within several years is achievable, based on the current ramp-up. He also noted that many early agencies are enthusiastic about the product, allocating double-digit portfolio shares. This trajectory could lead to 1,000+ subagency partners in the near term and, in the long term representation of half of the agency market, potentially underwriting millions of policies annually by the late 2020s, generating billions in revenue growth and positioning Root to rival legacy insurers by market cap.
**Product Diversification: Expanding the Portfolio** Root has the potential to explore additional new products, including home, specialty, rental, health, life, and pet insurance. Its tech stack enables seamless cross-selling, potentially increasing revenue significantly. An insurance brokerage model could position Root as a one-stop shop for all insurance needs, enhancing customer retention and profitability.
**Potential Carvana Transaction: A Capital Infusion** Carvana’s Q1 2025 earnings reported $158 million in warrant gains($278 million total Root warrant gains so far) and a $1 billion shelf offering in quarter four, suggesting a possible exercise of Root $180-$216 short term warrants. This could inject $1.4 billion in cash, boosting Root’s book value by over $10 billion (using Progressive’s 6X book value multiple) or $2.1 billion (using a 30x multiple with 5%+ corporate investment yields). This capital could also fund a potential acquisition for new products which will increase ROOT’s auto product stickiness increasing revenue and cross-selling possibilities doubling potential revenue which an acquisition like this could drive 10X+ returns in the long term.
**Long-Term Vision: A $2,000+ Price Target** Root’s Q1 2025 performance signals its potential to emulate Progressive’s historical success, but with faster growth driven by AI, automation, and digital channels. Investing in Root today is akin to buying Progressive in 1980 at $0.05 per share, which yielded a 5700X+ return. Root’s technological leadership, partnership momentum, and profit efficiency could propel it to a market cap rivaling Progressive’s $150 billion+. With half the agency market, major embedded partnerships, and a potential 75% combined ratio through ROOT’s ai tech stack, Root could generate billions in net income by late 2020’s/2030’s. A $2,000+ price target reflects this potential, driven by:
* Revenue Scale: Billions in written premiums via partnerships and subagencies.
* Profitability: 2-5X profit efficiency vs. legacy peers.
* Valuation Premium: A multiple reflecting Root’s disruptive potential.
**Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Root** Root Insurance’s Q1 2025 earnings mark a pivotal quarter of significant growth, driven by best-in-class loss ratios, a thriving partnership ecosystem, and a technological edge that legacy insurers cannot match. As Root expands its agency channel, secures high-profile partners, and diversifies its product offerings, it is poised to disrupt the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Investors today are betting on the future of insurance—a future where Root could lead, much like Tesla did in the automotive industry, by enhancing profit efficiency and innovation. With a long-term price target exceeding $2,000, Root offers a compelling opportunity for those who see technology reshaping industries.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.

Root Insurance ($ROOT) delivered a transformative Q1 2025 earnings report, marking a pivotal quarter defined by significant financial growth and strategic milestones. With substantial beats on revenue and earnings, a notable surge in policies in force, and an expanding partnership network, Root is solidifying its position as a disruptive force in the auto insurance industry. This quarter’s performance highlights Root’s technological edge and operational discipline, setting the stage for long-term leadership and a potential price target exceeding $2,000.00 per share. Below, we analyze Q1 results, management’s commentary, and the growth levers that position Root to challenge legacy insurers like Progressive ($PGR).Q1 2025 Results: Robust Financial PerformanceRoot’s Q1 2025 financials significantly outperformed expectations, showcasing strong growth across key metrics:
* Revenue: $349.4 million vs. consensus $306.79 million, a $42.61 million beat.
* Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.15 vs. consensus $0.03, a 4000%+ beat ($18.4 million net income vs. expected $450,000).
* Net Income and EBITDA: Net income reached $18.4 million, with EBITDA at $31.9 million, despite a $51.5 million increase in sales and marketing expenses to drive customer acquisition, which slightly tempered net income.
* Stockholder’s Equity: Grew by $25 million, with $609.4 million in cash and equivalents, reflecting a strong balance sheet.
* Premium Growth:
* Unearned premiums increased $66.4 million QoQ to $420.3 million from $353.9 million. This is a helpful insight to next quarter’s earnings.
* Written premiums rose $80.1 million to $410.8 million from $330.5 million, a 24% QoQ increase.
* Loss and LAE Ratios:
* Gross loss ratio improved to 56.1% from 56.9%, best-in-class among peers.
* Gross Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) ratio fell to 6.7% from 6.9%, signaling operational efficiency.
* Policies in Force (PIF): Reached 453,800, up 38,938 from 414,862—a 9.4% QoQ increase, breaking from prior quarters’ flat growth (407,313, 406,283, 401,255).
This robust growth in premiums, PIF, and profitability underscores Q1 as a pivotal moment, demonstrating Root’s ability to scale effectively while maintaining industry-leading loss ratios.Q1 2025 Management Commentary: Strategic MomentumRoot’s leadership provided clear insights into the drivers of Q1’s success and ongoing strategic initiatives:
* Geographic Expansion: CEO Alex Timm announced that Root is pending regulatory approvals in Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, bringing its footprint to 39 states. In a separate interview, Jason Shapiro, VP of BD, has expressed confidence in achieving nationwide coverage by 2026.
* Partnership Growth: Timm highlighted that Root now has over 20 partners, including recent additions like Hyundai and Experian. He noted that the partnership channel grew more than 100% year-over-year, with strong contributions from financial services, automotive, and agent subchannels.
* Direct Channel Performance: Timm attributed Q1’s PIF growth to strong direct channel results, driven by seasonality and optimized data funnels that enhanced customer acquisition cost (CAC) efficiency.
These comments emphasize the strategic execution behind Q1’s significant growth, positioning Root for continued expansion.Outlook: A Disruptive Force in InsuranceRoot’s Q1 2025 performance is a springboard for its ambition to reshape the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Its technological and strategic advantages position it to outpace legacy insurers, offering a compelling long-term investment opportunity.Technological Leadership: The Holy Grail of InsuranceRoot’s closed-loop underwriting system, powered by telematics, AI, and automation, delivers a best-in-class 56.1% loss ratio, far surpassing legacy insurers mired in outdated COBOL systems. This technological edge enables Root to achieve superior pricing accuracy and operational efficiency. Long-term, with ROOT”s technological advantage, I could see ROOT achieving a 75% combined ratio, driven by its industry-leading loss ratios and an expense ratio potentially below 15% (compared to GEICO’s 10.8% expense ratio in Q1 2025). This would make Root 2-5X more profit-efficient per policy than legacy peers. This would mean, it would take a single Root policy to potentially equal 5 competitor policies. Let that sink in, as this allows ROOT to gain significant income off a small amount of PIF growth. It won’t take much PIF growth for ROOT to contend with its legacy peers by income and market cap. This efficiency, akin to Tesla’s disruption of the auto industry by eliminating inefficiencies. Root’s modern tech stack also allows rapid code changes, making it an ideal partner for embedded insurance and agency channels. This agility enables Root to integrate seamlessly, adapt quickly, and offer competitive pricing that undercuts rivals.Partnership Dominance: A Growing EcosystemRoot’s embedded partnership strategy is a key growth lever. Their technological advantage makes them the most ideal insurer to work with due to agility and efficiency. Its recent partnerships with Hyundai, the third-largest auto group (including Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis), and Experian, which leverages data on hundreds of millions of consumers, are transformative. The Hyundai partnership enables embedded insurance at the point of vehicle sale or lease, potentially surpassing the scale of Root’s existing Carvana partnership. Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis collectively sell and lease millions of vehicles annually. Experian’s marketplace could drive significant policy growth due to Root’s superior pricing. With over 20 partners and a partnership channel doubling year-over-year, Root is poised to secure additional high-profile collaborations with auto manufacturers, financial services, or tech platforms.The agency channel, publicly launched in Q4 2024, is scaling rapidly, with 13–14 daily on boardings, according to VP Jason Shapiro in a recent interview. Shapiro believes capturing half the agency market within several years is achievable, based on the current ramp-up. He also noted that many early agencies are enthusiastic about the product, allocating double-digit portfolio shares. This trajectory could lead to 1,000+ subagency partners in the near term and, in the long term representation of half of the agency market, potentially underwriting millions of policies annually by the late 2020s, generating billions in revenue growth and positioning Root to rival legacy insurers by market cap.Product Diversification: Expanding the PortfolioRoot has the potential to explore additional new products, including home, specialty, rental, health, life, and pet insurance. Its tech stack enables seamless cross-selling, potentially increasing revenue significantly. An insurance brokerage model could position Root as a one-stop shop for all insurance needs, enhancing customer retention and profitability.Potential Carvana Transaction: A Capital Infusion Carvana’s Q1 2025 earnings reported $158 million in warrant gains($278 million total Root warrant gains so far) and a $1 billion shelf offering in quarter four, suggesting a possible exercise of Root $180-$216 short term warrants. This could inject $1.4 billion in cash, boosting Root’s book value by over $10 billion (using Progressive’s 6X book value multiple) or $2.1 billion (using a 30x multiple with 5%+ corporate investment yields). This capital could also fund a potential acquisition for new products which will increase ROOT’s auto product stickiness increasing revenue and cross-selling possibilities doubling potential revenue which an acquisition like this could drive 10X+ returns in the long term.Long-Term Vision: A $2,000+ Price TargetRoot’s Q1 2025 performance signals its potential to emulate Progressive’s historical success, but with faster growth driven by AI, automation, and digital channels. Investing in Root today is akin to buying Progressive in 1980 at $0.05 per share, which yielded a 5700X+ return. Root’s technological leadership, partnership momentum, and profit efficiency could propel it to a market cap rivaling Progressive’s $150 billion+. With half the agency market, major embedded partnerships, and a potential 75% combined ratio through ROOT’s ai tech stack, Root could generate billions in net income by late 2020’s/2030’s. A $2,000+ price target reflects this potential, driven by:
* Revenue Scale: Billions in written premiums via partnerships and subagencies.
* Profitability: 2-5X profit efficiency vs. legacy peers.
* Valuation Premium: A multiple reflecting Root’s disruptive potential.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for RootRoot Insurance’s Q1 2025 earnings mark a pivotal quarter of significant growth, driven by best-in-class loss ratios, a thriving partnership ecosystem, and a technological edge that legacy insurers cannot match. As Root expands its agency channel, secures high-profile partners, and diversifies its product offerings, it is poised to disrupt the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Investors today are betting on the future of insurance—a future where Root could lead, much like Tesla did in the automotive industry, by enhancing profit efficiency and innovation. With a long-term price target exceeding $2,000, Root offers a compelling opportunity for those who see technology reshaping industries.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.

Root Insurance ($ROOT) delivered a transformative Q1 2025 earnings report, marking a pivotal quarter defined by significant financial growth and strategic milestones. With substantial beats on revenue and earnings, a notable surge in policies in force, and an expanding partnership network, Root is solidifying its position as a disruptive force in the auto insurance industry. This quarter’s performance highlights Root’s technological edge and operational discipline, setting the stage for long-term leadership and a potential price target exceeding $2,000.00 per share. Below, we analyze Q1 results, management’s commentary, and the growth levers that position Root to challenge legacy insurers like Progressive ($PGR).Q1 2025 Results: Robust Financial PerformanceRoot’s Q1 2025 financials significantly outperformed expectations, showcasing strong growth across key metrics:
* Revenue: $349.4 million vs. consensus $306.79 million, a $42.61 million beat.
* Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.15 vs. consensus $0.03, a 4000%+ beat ($18.4 million net income vs. expected $450,000).
* Net Income and EBITDA: Net income reached $18.4 million, with EBITDA at $31.9 million, despite a $51.5 million increase in sales and marketing expenses to drive customer acquisition, which slightly tempered net income.
* Stockholder’s Equity: Grew by $25 million, with $609.4 million in cash and equivalents, reflecting a strong balance sheet.
* Premium Growth:
* Unearned premiums increased $66.4 million QoQ to $420.3 million from $353.9 million. This is a helpful insight to next quarter’s earnings.
* Written premiums rose $80.1 million to $410.8 million from $330.5 million, a 24% QoQ increase.
* Loss and LAE Ratios:
* Gross loss ratio improved to 56.1% from 56.9%, best-in-class among peers.
* Gross Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) ratio fell to 6.7% from 6.9%, signaling operational efficiency.
* Policies in Force (PIF): Reached 453,800, up 38,938 from 414,862—a 9.4% QoQ increase, breaking from prior quarters’ flat growth (407,313, 406,283, 401,255).
This robust growth in premiums, PIF, and profitability underscores Q1 as a pivotal moment, demonstrating Root’s ability to scale effectively while maintaining industry-leading loss ratios.Q1 2025 Management Commentary: Strategic MomentumRoot’s leadership provided clear insights into the drivers of Q1’s success and ongoing strategic initiatives:
* Geographic Expansion: CEO Alex Timm announced that Root is pending regulatory approvals in Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, bringing its footprint to 39 states. In a separate interview, Jason Shapiro, VP of BD, has expressed confidence in achieving nationwide coverage by 2026.
* Partnership Growth: Timm highlighted that Root now has over 20 partners, including recent additions like Hyundai and Experian. He noted that the partnership channel grew more than 100% year-over-year, with strong contributions from financial services, automotive, and agent subchannels.
* Direct Channel Performance: Timm attributed Q1’s PIF growth to strong direct channel results, driven by seasonality and optimized data funnels that enhanced customer acquisition cost (CAC) efficiency.
These comments emphasize the strategic execution behind Q1’s significant growth, positioning Root for continued expansion.Outlook: A Disruptive Force in InsuranceRoot’s Q1 2025 performance is a springboard for its ambition to reshape the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Its technological and strategic advantages position it to outpace legacy insurers, offering a compelling long-term investment opportunity.Technological Leadership: The Holy Grail of InsuranceRoot’s closed-loop underwriting system, powered by telematics, AI, and automation, delivers a best-in-class 56.1% loss ratio, far surpassing legacy insurers mired in outdated COBOL systems. This technological edge enables Root to achieve superior pricing accuracy and operational efficiency. Long-term, with ROOT”s technological advantage, I could see ROOT achieving a 75% combined ratio, driven by its industry-leading loss ratios and an expense ratio potentially below 15% (compared to GEICO’s 10.8% expense ratio in Q1 2025). This would make Root 2-5X more profit-efficient per policy than legacy peers. This would mean, it would take a single Root policy to potentially equal 5 competitor policies. Let that sink in, as this allows ROOT to gain significant income off a small amount of PIF growth. It won’t take much PIF growth for ROOT to contend with its legacy peers by income and market cap. This efficiency, akin to Tesla’s disruption of the auto industry by eliminating inefficiencies. Root’s modern tech stack also allows rapid code changes, making it an ideal partner for embedded insurance and agency channels. This agility enables Root to integrate seamlessly, adapt quickly, and offer competitive pricing that undercuts rivals.Partnership Dominance: A Growing EcosystemRoot’s embedded partnership strategy is a key growth lever. Their technological advantage makes them the most ideal insurer to work with due to agility and efficiency. Its recent partnerships with Hyundai, the third-largest auto group (including Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis), and Experian, which leverages data on hundreds of millions of consumers, are transformative. The Hyundai partnership enables embedded insurance at the point of vehicle sale or lease, potentially surpassing the scale of Root’s existing Carvana partnership. Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis collectively sell and lease millions of vehicles annually. Experian’s marketplace could drive significant policy growth due to Root’s superior pricing. With over 20 partners and a partnership channel doubling year-over-year, Root is poised to secure additional high-profile collaborations with auto manufacturers, financial services, or tech platforms.The agency channel, publicly launched in Q4 2024, is scaling rapidly, with 13–14 daily on boardings, according to VP Jason Shapiro in a recent interview. Shapiro believes capturing half the agency market within several years is achievable, based on the current ramp-up. He also noted that many early agencies are enthusiastic about the product, allocating double-digit portfolio shares. This trajectory could lead to 1,000+ subagency partners in the near term and, in the long term representation of half of the agency market, potentially underwriting millions of policies annually by the late 2020s, generating billions in revenue growth and positioning Root to rival legacy insurers by market cap.Product Diversification: Expanding the PortfolioRoot has the potential to explore additional new products, including home, specialty, rental, health, life, and pet insurance. Its tech stack enables seamless cross-selling, potentially increasing revenue significantly. An insurance brokerage model could position Root as a one-stop shop for all insurance needs, enhancing customer retention and profitability.Potential Carvana Transaction: A Capital Infusion Carvana’s Q1 2025 earnings reported $158 million in warrant gains($278 million total Root warrant gains so far) and a $1 billion shelf offering in quarter four, suggesting a possible exercise of Root $180-$216 short term warrants. This could inject $1.4 billion in cash, boosting Root’s book value by over $10 billion (using Progressive’s 6X book value multiple) or $2.1 billion (using a 30x multiple with 5%+ corporate investment yields). This capital could also fund a potential acquisition for new products which will increase ROOT’s auto product stickiness increasing revenue and cross-selling possibilities doubling potential revenue which an acquisition like this could drive 10X+ returns in the long term.Long-Term Vision: A $2,000+ Price TargetRoot’s Q1 2025 performance signals its potential to emulate Progressive’s historical success, but with faster growth driven by AI, automation, and digital channels. Investing in Root today is akin to buying Progressive in 1980 at $0.05 per share, which yielded a 5700X+ return. Root’s technological leadership, partnership momentum, and profit efficiency could propel it to a market cap rivaling Progressive’s $150 billion+. With half the agency market, major embedded partnerships, and a potential 75% combined ratio through ROOT’s ai tech stack, Root could generate billions in net income by late 2020’s/2030’s. A $2,000+ price target reflects this potential, driven by:
* Revenue Scale: Billions in written premiums via partnerships and subagencies.
* Profitability: 2-5X profit efficiency vs. legacy peers.
* Valuation Premium: A multiple reflecting Root’s disruptive potential.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for RootRoot Insurance’s Q1 2025 earnings mark a pivotal quarter of significant growth, driven by best-in-class loss ratios, a thriving partnership ecosystem, and a technological edge that legacy insurers cannot match. As Root expands its agency channel, secures high-profile partners, and diversifies its product offerings, it is poised to disrupt the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Investors today are betting on the future of insurance—a future where Root could lead, much like Tesla did in the automotive industry, by enhancing profit efficiency and innovation. With a long-term price target exceeding $2,000, Root offers a compelling opportunity for those who see technology reshaping industries.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.

I've loved it. Got me Some Sept LLY puts up 140% ... buying some puts on DE, DRI for Jan 26..
Basically long term bear. Short term we'll kick around but June opex i'd guess we are down 5% on SPY.
Bought Some PRAA Calls and shares at 13 which I think they will get turned in to a "turn around story" with the new CEO. Never mind that they are a debt collection company. PGR is probably going to go to 300 before earnings so I may get in on some short term calls.
Inflation data comes next Tuesday and then WMT earnings the 15th, their guidance will drive the market.

Root Insurance ($ROOT) delivered a transformative Q1 2025 earnings report, marking a pivotal quarter defined by significant financial growth and strategic milestones. With substantial beats on revenue and earnings, a notable surge in policies in force, and an expanding partnership network, Root is solidifying its position as a disruptive force in the auto insurance industry. This quarter’s performance highlights Root’s technological edge and operational discipline, setting the stage for long-term leadership and a potential price target exceeding $2,000.00 per share. Below, we analyze Q1 results, management’s commentary, and the growth levers that position Root to challenge legacy insurers like Progressive ($PGR).Q1 2025 Results: Robust Financial PerformanceRoot’s Q1 2025 financials significantly outperformed expectations, showcasing strong growth across key metrics:
* Revenue: $349.4 million vs. consensus $306.79 million, a $42.61 million beat.
* Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.15 vs. consensus $0.03, a 4000%+ beat ($18.4 million net income vs. expected $450,000).
* Net Income and EBITDA: Net income reached $18.4 million, with EBITDA at $31.9 million, despite a $51.5 million increase in sales and marketing expenses to drive customer acquisition, which slightly tempered net income.
* Stockholder’s Equity: Grew by $25 million, with $609.4 million in cash and equivalents, reflecting a strong balance sheet.
* Premium Growth:
* Unearned premiums increased $66.4 million QoQ to $420.3 million from $353.9 million. This is a helpful insight to next quarter’s earnings.
* Written premiums rose $80.1 million to $410.8 million from $330.5 million, a 24% QoQ increase.
* Loss and LAE Ratios:
* Gross loss ratio improved to 56.1% from 56.9%, best-in-class among peers.
* Gross Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) ratio fell to 6.7% from 6.9%, signaling operational efficiency.
* Policies in Force (PIF): Reached 453,800, up 38,938 from 414,862—a 9.4% QoQ increase, breaking from prior quarters’ flat growth (407,313, 406,283, 401,255).
This robust growth in premiums, PIF, and profitability underscores Q1 as a pivotal moment, demonstrating Root’s ability to scale effectively while maintaining industry-leading loss ratios.Q1 2025 Management Commentary: Strategic MomentumRoot’s leadership provided clear insights into the drivers of Q1’s success and ongoing strategic initiatives:
* Geographic Expansion: CEO Alex Timm announced that Root is pending regulatory approvals in Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, bringing its footprint to 39 states. In a separate interview, Jason Shapiro, VP of BD, has expressed confidence in achieving nationwide coverage by 2026.
* Partnership Growth: Timm highlighted that Root now has over 20 partners, including recent additions like Hyundai and Experian. He noted that the partnership channel grew more than 100% year-over-year, with strong contributions from financial services, automotive, and agent subchannels.
* Direct Channel Performance: Timm attributed Q1’s PIF growth to strong direct channel results, driven by seasonality and optimized data funnels that enhanced customer acquisition cost (CAC) efficiency.
These comments emphasize the strategic execution behind Q1’s significant growth, positioning Root for continued expansion.Outlook: A Disruptive Force in InsuranceRoot’s Q1 2025 performance is a springboard for its ambition to reshape the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Its technological and strategic advantages position it to outpace legacy insurers, offering a compelling long-term investment opportunity.Technological Leadership: The Holy Grail of InsuranceRoot’s closed-loop underwriting system, powered by telematics, AI, and automation, delivers a best-in-class 56.1% loss ratio, far surpassing legacy insurers mired in outdated COBOL systems. This technological edge enables Root to achieve superior pricing accuracy and operational efficiency. Long-term, with ROOT”s technological advantage, I could see ROOT achieving a 75% combined ratio, driven by its industry-leading loss ratios and an expense ratio potentially below 15% (compared to GEICO’s 10.8% expense ratio in Q1 2025). This would make Root 2-5X more profit-efficient per policy than legacy peers. This would mean, it would take a single Root policy to potentially equal 5 competitor policies. Let that sink in, as this allows ROOT to gain significant income off a small amount of PIF growth. It won’t take much PIF growth for ROOT to contend with its legacy peers by income and market cap. This efficiency, akin to Tesla’s disruption of the auto industry by eliminating inefficiencies. Root’s modern tech stack also allows rapid code changes, making it an ideal partner for embedded insurance and agency channels. This agility enables Root to integrate seamlessly, adapt quickly, and offer competitive pricing that undercuts rivals.Partnership Dominance: A Growing EcosystemRoot’s embedded partnership strategy is a key growth lever. Their technological advantage makes them the most ideal insurer to work with due to agility and efficiency. Its recent partnerships with Hyundai, the third-largest auto group (including Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis), and Experian, which leverages data on hundreds of millions of consumers, are transformative. The Hyundai partnership enables embedded insurance at the point of vehicle sale or lease, potentially surpassing the scale of Root’s existing Carvana partnership. Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis collectively sell and lease millions of vehicles annually. Experian’s marketplace could drive significant policy growth due to Root’s superior pricing. With over 20 partners and a partnership channel doubling year-over-year, Root is poised to secure additional high-profile collaborations with auto manufacturers, financial services, or tech platforms.The agency channel, publicly launched in Q4 2024, is scaling rapidly, with 13–14 daily on boardings, according to VP Jason Shapiro in a recent interview. Shapiro believes capturing half the agency market within several years is achievable, based on the current ramp-up. He also noted that many early agencies are enthusiastic about the product, allocating double-digit portfolio shares. This trajectory could lead to 1,000+ subagency partners in the near term and, in the long term representation of half of the agency market, potentially underwriting millions of policies annually by the late 2020s, generating billions in revenue growth and positioning Root to rival legacy insurers by market cap.Product Diversification: Expanding the PortfolioRoot has the potential to explore additional new products, including home, specialty, rental, health, life, and pet insurance. Its tech stack enables seamless cross-selling, potentially increasing revenue significantly. An insurance brokerage model could position Root as a one-stop shop for all insurance needs, enhancing customer retention and profitability.Potential Carvana Transaction: A Capital Infusion Carvana’s Q1 2025 earnings reported $158 million in warrant gains($278 million total Root warrant gains so far) and a $1 billion shelf offering in quarter four, suggesting a possible exercise of Root $180-$216 short term warrants. This could inject $1.4 billion in cash, boosting Root’s book value by over $10 billion (using Progressive’s 6X book value multiple) or $2.1 billion (using a 30x multiple with 5%+ corporate investment yields). This capital could also fund a potential acquisition for new products which will increase ROOT’s auto product stickiness increasing revenue and cross-selling possibilities doubling potential revenue which an acquisition like this could drive 10X+ returns in the long term.Long-Term Vision: A $2,000+ Price TargetRoot’s Q1 2025 performance signals its potential to emulate Progressive’s historical success, but with faster growth driven by AI, automation, and digital channels. Investing in Root today is akin to buying Progressive in 1980 at $0.05 per share, which yielded a 5700X+ return. Root’s technological leadership, partnership momentum, and profit efficiency could propel it to a market cap rivaling Progressive’s $150 billion+. With half the agency market, major embedded partnerships, and a potential 75% combined ratio through ROOT’s ai tech stack, Root could generate billions in net income by late 2020’s/2030’s. A $2,000+ price target reflects this potential, driven by:
* Revenue Scale: Billions in written premiums via partnerships and subagencies.
* Profitability: 2-5X profit efficiency vs. legacy peers.
* Valuation Premium: A multiple reflecting Root’s disruptive potential.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for RootRoot Insurance’s Q1 2025 earnings mark a pivotal quarter of significant growth, driven by best-in-class loss ratios, a thriving partnership ecosystem, and a technological edge that legacy insurers cannot match. As Root expands its agency channel, secures high-profile partners, and diversifies its product offerings, it is poised to disrupt the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Investors today are betting on the future of insurance—a future where Root could lead, much like Tesla did in the automotive industry, by enhancing profit efficiency and innovation. With a long-term price target exceeding $2,000, Root offers a compelling opportunity for those who see technology reshaping industries.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.

Root Insurance ($ROOT) delivered a transformative Q1 2025 earnings report, marking a pivotal quarter defined by significant financial growth and strategic milestones. With substantial beats on revenue and earnings, a notable surge in policies in force, and an expanding partnership network, Root is solidifying its position as a disruptive force in the auto insurance industry. This quarter’s performance highlights Root’s technological edge and operational discipline, setting the stage for long-term leadership and a potential price target exceeding $2,000.00 per share. Below, we analyze Q1 results, management’s commentary, and the growth levers that position Root to challenge legacy insurers like Progressive ($PGR).Q1 2025 Results: Robust Financial PerformanceRoot’s Q1 2025 financials significantly outperformed expectations, showcasing strong growth across key metrics:
* Revenue: $349.4 million vs. consensus $306.79 million, a $42.61 million beat.
* Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.15 vs. consensus $0.03, a 4000%+ beat ($18.4 million net income vs. expected $450,000).
* Net Income and EBITDA: Net income reached $18.4 million, with EBITDA at $31.9 million, despite a $51.5 million increase in sales and marketing expenses to drive customer acquisition, which slightly tempered net income.
* Stockholder’s Equity: Grew by $25 million, with $609.4 million in cash and equivalents, reflecting a strong balance sheet.
* Premium Growth:
* Unearned premiums increased $66.4 million QoQ to $420.3 million from $353.9 million. This is a helpful insight to next quarter’s earnings.
* Written premiums rose $80.1 million to $410.8 million from $330.5 million, a 24% QoQ increase.
* Loss and LAE Ratios:
* Gross loss ratio improved to 56.1% from 56.9%, best-in-class among peers.
* Gross Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) ratio fell to 6.7% from 6.9%, signaling operational efficiency.
* Policies in Force (PIF): Reached 453,800, up 38,938 from 414,862—a 9.4% QoQ increase, breaking from prior quarters’ flat growth (407,313, 406,283, 401,255).
This robust growth in premiums, PIF, and profitability underscores Q1 as a pivotal moment, demonstrating Root’s ability to scale effectively while maintaining industry-leading loss ratios.Q1 2025 Management Commentary: Strategic MomentumRoot’s leadership provided clear insights into the drivers of Q1’s success and ongoing strategic initiatives:
* Geographic Expansion: CEO Alex Timm announced that Root is pending regulatory approvals in Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, bringing its footprint to 39 states. In a separate interview, Jason Shapiro, VP of BD, has expressed confidence in achieving nationwide coverage by 2026.
* Partnership Growth: Timm highlighted that Root now has over 20 partners, including recent additions like Hyundai and Experian. He noted that the partnership channel grew more than 100% year-over-year, with strong contributions from financial services, automotive, and agent subchannels.
* Direct Channel Performance: Timm attributed Q1’s PIF growth to strong direct channel results, driven by seasonality and optimized data funnels that enhanced customer acquisition cost (CAC) efficiency.
These comments emphasize the strategic execution behind Q1’s significant growth, positioning Root for continued expansion.Outlook: A Disruptive Force in InsuranceRoot’s Q1 2025 performance is a springboard for its ambition to reshape the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Its technological and strategic advantages position it to outpace legacy insurers, offering a compelling long-term investment opportunity.Technological Leadership: The Holy Grail of InsuranceRoot’s closed-loop underwriting system, powered by telematics, AI, and automation, delivers a best-in-class 56.1% loss ratio, far surpassing legacy insurers mired in outdated COBOL systems. This technological edge enables Root to achieve superior pricing accuracy and operational efficiency. Long-term, with ROOT”s technological advantage, I could see ROOT achieving a 75% combined ratio, driven by its industry-leading loss ratios and an expense ratio potentially below 15% (compared to GEICO’s 10.8% expense ratio in Q1 2025). This would make Root 2-5X more profit-efficient per policy than legacy peers. This would mean, it would take a single Root policy to potentially equal 5 competitor policies. Let that sink in, as this allows ROOT to gain significant income off a small amount of PIF growth. It won’t take much PIF growth for ROOT to contend with its legacy peers by income and market cap. This efficiency, akin to Tesla’s disruption of the auto industry by eliminating inefficiencies. Root’s modern tech stack also allows rapid code changes, making it an ideal partner for embedded insurance and agency channels. This agility enables Root to integrate seamlessly, adapt quickly, and offer competitive pricing that undercuts rivals.Partnership Dominance: A Growing EcosystemRoot’s embedded partnership strategy is a key growth lever. Their technological advantage makes them the most ideal insurer to work with due to agility and efficiency. Its recent partnerships with Hyundai, the third-largest auto group (including Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis), and Experian, which leverages data on hundreds of millions of consumers, are transformative. The Hyundai partnership enables embedded insurance at the point of vehicle sale or lease, potentially surpassing the scale of Root’s existing Carvana partnership. Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis collectively sell and lease millions of vehicles annually. Experian’s marketplace could drive significant policy growth due to Root’s superior pricing. With over 20 partners and a partnership channel doubling year-over-year, Root is poised to secure additional high-profile collaborations with auto manufacturers, financial services, or tech platforms.The agency channel, publicly launched in Q4 2024, is scaling rapidly, with 13–14 daily on boardings, according to VP Jason Shapiro in a recent interview. Shapiro believes capturing half the agency market within several years is achievable, based on the current ramp-up. He also noted that many early agencies are enthusiastic about the product, allocating double-digit portfolio shares. This trajectory could lead to 1,000+ subagency partners in the near term and, in the long term representation of half of the agency market, potentially underwriting millions of policies annually by the late 2020s, generating billions in revenue growth and positioning Root to rival legacy insurers by market cap.Product Diversification: Expanding the PortfolioRoot has the potential to explore additional new products, including home, specialty, rental, health, life, and pet insurance. Its tech stack enables seamless cross-selling, potentially increasing revenue significantly. An insurance brokerage model could position Root as a one-stop shop for all insurance needs, enhancing customer retention and profitability.Potential Carvana Transaction: A Capital Infusion Carvana’s Q1 2025 earnings reported $158 million in warrant gains($278 million total Root warrant gains so far) and a $1 billion shelf offering in quarter four, suggesting a possible exercise of Root $180-$216 short term warrants. This could inject $1.4 billion in cash, boosting Root’s book value by over $10 billion (using Progressive’s 6X book value multiple) or $2.1 billion (using a 30x multiple with 5%+ corporate investment yields). This capital could also fund a potential acquisition for new products which will increase ROOT’s auto product stickiness increasing revenue and cross-selling possibilities doubling potential revenue which an acquisition like this could drive 10X+ returns in the long term.Long-Term Vision: A $2,000+ Price TargetRoot’s Q1 2025 performance signals its potential to emulate Progressive’s historical success, but with faster growth driven by AI, automation, and digital channels. Investing in Root today is akin to buying Progressive in 1980 at $0.05 per share, which yielded a 5700X+ return. Root’s technological leadership, partnership momentum, and profit efficiency could propel it to a market cap rivaling Progressive’s $150 billion+. With half the agency market, major embedded partnerships, and a potential 75% combined ratio through ROOT’s ai tech stack, Root could generate billions in net income by late 2020’s/2030’s. A $2,000+ price target reflects this potential, driven by:
* Revenue Scale: Billions in written premiums via partnerships and subagencies.
* Profitability: 2-5X profit efficiency vs. legacy peers.
* Valuation Premium: A multiple reflecting Root’s disruptive potential.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for RootRoot Insurance’s Q1 2025 earnings mark a pivotal quarter of significant growth, driven by best-in-class loss ratios, a thriving partnership ecosystem, and a technological edge that legacy insurers cannot match. As Root expands its agency channel, secures high-profile partners, and diversifies its product offerings, it is poised to disrupt the trillion plus U.S. insurance market. Investors today are betting on the future of insurance—a future where Root could lead, much like Tesla did in the automotive industry, by enhancing profit efficiency and innovation. With a long-term price target exceeding $2,000, Root offers a compelling opportunity for those who see technology reshaping industries.Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.

Well I've got lots of stuff I don't need. But VOO,TXRH,VICI,NVDA,QQQ,WELL,FDX (embarrassingly),MPC,MPLX,AZO,PGR,DVY,DKS,TM,KO,MSFT,V,VIGI , etc. 
I'd never take my advice on anything besides. Study and learn for yourself. VOO though is probably the way to go. But you need to figure it out for yourself. No one knows what the future holds. But plenty of people got You know theories thesis is they've got analysis of why they think what. some of them are right on some are way off. That's part of the fun.