PAC Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

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Here’s my high level TMC DD
**$TMC —**
**TL;DR:** Only company in line for the first-ever US deep-sea mining permit. Decision \~Q1 2027. Trades at under 10 cents per dollar of its own NPV because one document is unresolved. The Pentagon has been deploying billions into minerals companies with equity stakes and price floors. I hold 3,100 shares @ $5.87 with exits pre-set at every level.
**AThe setup:** One rock on the ocean floor contains copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. The US imports \~100% of its manganese and nearly all of its nickel and cobalt. China has restricted exports of 11+ minerals in three years, and the Hormuz closure just gave the world a live demonstration of what chokepoint warfare costs. Washington got the message: executive order, fast-track NOAA process, national security framing.
**The receipts:**
TMC filed its application **the same week** NOAA opened the fast-track lane. Every milestone since has landed on schedule. You don’t have a world-first application ready to file unless you knew the lane was coming.
The board was built for access: Hess oil family money (the family patriarch gave $1M to the Trump super PAC weeks before the fast-track rule appeared — it’s in FEC records) and Elon Musk’s personal attorney, whom the company publicly credited with helping “work with the new Administration.”
The Pentagon playbook already exists: $4.5B+ deployed into minerals companies. MP Materials got equity, a 10-year offtake, and price floors — and tripled. The DoD also owns 40% of the new refinery belonging to TMC’s own refining partner.
Allseas — the company building the actual collection ships, and a \~14% shareholder — just accepted **7.3 million shares as payment** for development work instead of cash. The contractor chose stock at $4.66 over invoiced dollars. The people building the machine are betting it works.
Glencore has held rights to 50% of the flagship project’s nickel and copper for years. PAMCO in Japan has already smelted 2,000 tonnes of real nodules at a commercial facility. The customer chain exists before the mine does.
Market cap: \~$2B. The company’s own project NPV: $23.6B. Under a dime per dollar, entirely because of one pending document.
**The bear case, stated honestly:** The risk isn’t NOAA saying no — it’s the courts. Lockheed attempted this under the same statute and was stopped by litigation in 2015. Environmental groups have already signaled they’ll sue again. Filed lawsuits are expected and priced in; an *injunction* is the real kill shot. My honest odds of a permit that survives and works: **55–60%.** This can go to zero with no soft landing. Size accordingly — I did.
**Position and plan:** 3,100 @ $5.87. The ladder is set and non-negotiable: trim 10% at $6 (with tax-loss harvesting on my highest-cost lots), scale out at $15 and $18 — full cost basis recovered at $18, everything after is house money — sell a major tranche at $100, and hold \~1,000 shares permanently for the scenario where this becomes an established American industry with dividend potential. If it fails, I lose \~$18K at a size I planned for.
**Catalysts:** 7/13 critical minerals trade report • 8/13 earnings + 8/14 13F filings (institutions hold only \~11% — if the permit lands, they build toward a normal 40%+ into a float that’s one-third locked by insiders) • Draft EIS in Q4 2026 — the one that matters most.
For reference: the stock ran $1.72 → $11.35 on the executive order alone, with zero hard milestones achieved. The permit, a Pentagon deal, and the first production would each be larger events than the EO — landing on the same thin float.