OUT Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

*Disclaimer: Not financial advice, I just like the company/stock and the opportunity to make more money. This post does not discuss a short squeeze, just basic supply and demand.*
Whether you joined the last rally or not, I’ll be in for the next $CAR rally.
https://preview.redd.it/16y0zozocmyg1.png?width=1311&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f9edf7a657213a9f8e1c318b63499ebc1a355c6
Brief intro about me. I know this is unusual for a DD post, especially on reddit where doxing is a real concern, but I want people to understand who I am and my background, not just see another random regard posting DD.
I am a former security (R&D) dev who left the rat race in Feb to start my own hedge fund, along with a separate investment fund for friends and family. The riskier plays are done strictly in my own fund.
For context, I played the last one by shorting with spreads at the top, then picking up 4,200 shares in the low $200s, and hedging ER with puts and covered calls since it was definitely wild. You can see the profits from the short play at the very last peak, followed by about a \~20% drawdown.
https://preview.redd.it/fh54nnvh9myg1.png?width=2369&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb3c3d762d4813f7630b04b57e172bd4a5352f8a
The play definitely affected my performance in the short term, but you can see I’ve only been in BIG plays, ranging from shorting scam companies like $DJT, quantum (scam) companies, and Trump circle stocks, to going long on undervalued companies like $INTC, $G\*\*, $EIX, $PCG, and $HPE. I pick a side, time it well, and build my position around that.
https://preview.redd.it/bmu6nl2lamyg1.png?width=833&format=png&auto=webp&s=5831b8ed66d0b43c18a7a408d9af925cc7b9c8cf
I think that is enough to establish that I am a regard who has something loose in his head and is addicted to adrenaline. I also opened my post history for everyone to dig around. Here comes the actual DD.
# I. Management not selling shares
Management has not been selling shares, especially at this price level, because it is currently below what they believe it should be.
From the Earnings Call transcript: [https://ir.avisbudgetgroup.com/static-files/33eb82e8-bdc5-4390-9711-24faf5d52a4a](https://ir.avisbudgetgroup.com/static-files/33eb82e8-bdc5-4390-9711-24faf5d52a4a)
We believe that this significant increase in ownership, combined with the high short interest in our name resulted in a short squeeze. That much is well understood. Here's what we're absorbing just now. After market closed yesterday, Pentwater disclosed the sale of 4.3 million shares for gross proceeds of $1.75 billion on April 22 and April 23. Given the quantum of shares sold in such a short span of time, our stock price experienced a significant decline.

It is important to note that Avis has not bought or sold a share since 2024. Our largest shareholder, SRS, has not bought or sold a share since 2023. So it seems the only insider active during this period of excess volatility was Pentwater Capital. Pentwater has acknowledged that its sale of Avis stock, at least in part, was violative of the SEC Section 16 short swing profit rules. Avis has requested Pentwater furnish it all relevant information concerning the trades and Avis will aggressively pursue all rights on behalf of our stockholders.
I can tell you this much. We have no intention of issuing shares anywhere near these levels. And more broadly speaking, Listen, I bought my first shares in Avis in 2010. So I've been involved with this company for 16 years now. Back then, and you've covered us for a while, but you know that the Avis had 129 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

And since then, in my capacity as a large shareholder, a Board member, a CFO, I've been very consistent in my belief that our shares are undervalued and have advocated for buying back stock. So our shares outstanding today are 35 million shares.

So we've retired 94 million or 73% of those original shares outstanding. I've not seen public companies reduce their share count by anything close to that order of magnitude. So we are true believers of this business. And on a fundamental basis, we were repurchasing our shares as high as $300 post-pandemic. So the thought of doing the opposite and issuing shares never entered my mind until this situation arose.

Now you're right, we put an ATM in place because it'd be irresponsible not to. We've done this in the past as well, and we haven't issued any shares. So I'm not here to trade Avis for value extraction. We're going to put in the hard work and create value by building a better business. It might not be as flashy as making a quick buck, but that's the journey we're on, and we take pride in that.
# II. Pentwater situation
Even though management stated they would go after Pentwater for $1.75B in profits (see the transcript), since Pentwater was an insider and subject to the Section 16(b) short swing profit rule, I did some further digging and suspected that they only sold the \~10% they held BEFORE becoming a 10% holder.
Meaning, if those shares were held long enough, they could sell them without forfeiting the profits to Avis Budget Group, and that is exactly what they did.
What happened:
* Pentwater already sold all the shares they held prior to becoming a 10% insider (and held for longer than 6 months), meaning they planned this for a while. They are currently around 11-12%.
* They cannot sell the newly bought shares (in March - April) and keep the profits until around Sep - Oct. Otherwise, all gains would fall under Section 16(b), meaning the profits would be returned to Avis.
* Again, they already sold ALL shares that were held longer than 6 months, and even sold \~100k extra (dipping into the newly bought shares). The profits from those \~100k shares will go to Avis. Both sides’ lawyers are likely already discussing this.
My estimate is about $30M of free money going to Avis from those extra 100k shares, assuming the profit was $300 - $400 per share on average.
Sources:
See the footnotes of the two Form 4 filings, where Pentwater acknowledges that some of the sales are subject to the Section 16(b) short swing profit rule:
1. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425851/000090266426002181/xslF345X06/ownership.xml](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425851/000090266426002181/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
2. [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425851/000090266426002182/xslF345X06/ownership.xml](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425851/000090266426002182/xslF345X06/ownership.xml)
That means they RAN OUT of shares that can be sold without giving back all the profits to AVIS.
# III. Float + pressure mechanics
The pressure Pentwater released was about \~3M shares, roughly 10% of the float.
They made BILLIONS selling at the top. Again, they brought 3M shares IN and 3M shares OUT, tripling the profit. That means EVERYONE can theoretically do the same. I am not discussing a short squeeze here, since it is prohibited in this sub, but my regarded math is definitely mathing that the price could go up when supply is scarce, which is common sense.
3M shares =
* 3,000 people holding 1,000 shares each, or
* 30,000 people holding 100 shares each
Just an example to show how thin the float is.
Also, if this is profitable, what prevents Pentwater from doing a second round, buying again to release their 12% once they have held it long enough? That would be around the Sep - Oct time frame. In the meantime, it is MY turn to play.
Last but not least, management has earned my respect, just read the ER transcript to understand why for yourself. And the strong season for car rentals, with the World Cup happening in the U.S., Avis’s largest market, this summer.

```lua
WebBanking{
version = 1.0,
url = "https://de.scalable.capital",
services = {"Scalable Capital (Tagesgeld)"},
description = "Fragt das Scalable Capital Tagesgeldkonto ab"
}
local connection
local globalUserId = nil
local cachedQueryResult = nil
function SupportsBank (protocol, bankCode)
return protocol == ProtocolWebBanking and bankCode == "Scalable Capital (Tagesgeld)"
end
local function graphqlRequest(url, operationName, variables, query)
local payload = {
operationName = operationName,
variables = variables,
query = query
}
local postContent = JSON():set(payload):json()
local content, charset, mimeType, filename, headers = connection:request(
"POST",
url,
postContent,
"application/json",
{ ["Accept"] = "application/json", ["Content-Type"] = "application/json" }
)
if content == nil or content == "" then return nil end
return JSON(content):dictionary()
end
function InitializeSession (protocol, bankCode, username, reserved, password)
connection = Connection()
MM.printStatus("Lade Scalable Login-Seite...")
local content = connection:get("https://de.scalable.capital/secure-login")
local html = HTML(content)
local stateParam = html:xpath("//input[@name='state']"):attr("value")
if not stateParam or stateParam == "" then
return "Fehler: Auth0 State-Parameter konnte nicht ermittelt werden."
end
MM.printStatus("Sende Anmeldedaten...")
local postContent = "state=" .. MM.urlencode(stateParam) .. "&username=" .. MM.urlencode(username) .. "&password=" .. MM.urlencode(password) .. "&action=default"
local mfaCheckContent = connection:request(
"POST",
"https://secure.scalable.capital/u/login?state=" .. stateParam .. "&ui_locales=de",
postContent,
"application/x-www-form-urlencoded"
)
local userId
local nextDataJson = string.match(mfaCheckContent, '<script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json"[^>]*>(.-)</script>')
if nextDataJson then
local nextData = JSON(nextDataJson):dictionary()
if nextData and nextData.props and nextData.props.pageProps then
userId = nextData.props.pageProps.userId
end
else
-- Neues Next.js App Router Format (__next_f)
-- Die Werte sind meist escaped, da sie noch in einem JS-String verpackt sind: {\"userId\":\"b2p...\"}
userId = string.match(mfaCheckContent, '\\"userId\\":\\"([%w%-_]+)\\"')
end
if not userId then
return LoginFailed
end
globalUserId = userId
MM.printStatus("Prüfe 2FA / MFA Status...")
local mfaStatus = graphqlRequest(
"https://de.scalable.capital/auth/graphql",
"is2faOnLoginEnabled",
{ input = { userId = userId } },
"query is2faOnLoginEnabled($input: Is2faOnLoginEnabledInput!) { is2faOnLoginEnabled(input: $input) { enabled } }"
)
if mfaStatus and mfaStatus.data and mfaStatus.data.is2faOnLoginEnabled and mfaStatus.data.is2faOnLoginEnabled.enabled then
MM.printStatus("Fordere Bestätigung über Scalable App an...")
local startMfa = graphqlRequest(
"https://de.scalable.capital/auth/graphql",
"start2faOnLogin",
{ input = { userId = userId, deviceType = "Mac OS", deviceName = "MoneyMoney" } },
"mutation start2faOnLogin($input: Start2faOnLoginInput!) { start2faOnLogin(input: $input) { mfaSessionId } }"
)
if not startMfa or not startMfa.data or not startMfa.data.start2faOnLogin then
return "Fehler beim Starten des 2FA-Prozesses."
end
local mfaSessionId = startMfa.data.start2faOnLogin.mfaSessionId
local mfaConfirmed = false
local timeout = 20
for i = 1, timeout do
MM.printStatus("Warte auf App-Freigabe... (" .. i .. "/" .. timeout .. ")")
local validateMfa = graphqlRequest(
"https://de.scalable.capital/auth/graphql",
"validate2faOnLogin",
{ input = { userId = userId, mfaSessionId = mfaSessionId } },
"mutation validate2faOnLogin($input: Validate2faOnLoginInput!) { validate2faOnLogin(input: $input) { status } }"
)
if validateMfa and validateMfa.data and validateMfa.data.validate2faOnLogin then
local s = validateMfa.data.validate2faOnLogin.status
if s == "SUCCESS" then
mfaConfirmed = true
break
elseif s ~= "PENDING" then
return "2FA-Freigabe abgelehnt oder fehlgeschlagen."
end
end
MM.sleep(3)
end
if not mfaConfirmed then
return "2FA-Bestätigung in der App abgelaufen."
end
MM.printStatus("2FA erfolgreich!")
end
return nil
end
local function getInitialQueryResult()
if cachedQueryResult then return cachedQueryResult end
local content = connection:get("https://de.scalable.capital/cockpit/")
local nextDataJson = string.match(content, '<script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json"[^>]*>(.-)</script>')
if not nextDataJson then return nil end
local nextData = JSON(nextDataJson):dictionary()
if nextData and nextData.props and nextData.props.pageProps and nextData.props.pageProps.middlewareProps then
local m5 = nextData.props.pageProps.middlewareProps.m5
if m5 and m5.initialQueryResult then
cachedQueryResult = m5.initialQueryResult
return cachedQueryResult
end
end
return nil
end
function ListAccounts (knownAccounts)
MM.printStatus("Lade Kontenübersicht...")
local accounts = {}
local queryResult = getInitialQueryResult()
if queryResult then
for key, value in pairs(queryResult) do
if type(value) == "table" and value.savingsAccounts then
for _, savingsRef in ipairs(value.savingsAccounts) do
local sAcc = queryResult[savingsRef.__ref]
if sAcc and sAcc.state == "ACTIVE" then
local aName = "Tagesgeld"
if sAcc.personalizations and sAcc.personalizations.__ref then
local pInfo = queryResult[sAcc.personalizations.__ref]
if pInfo and pInfo.name then aName = pInfo.name end
end
table.insert(accounts, {
name = "Scalable Capital " .. aName,
owner = "Scalable Capital",
accountNumber = "SC-TG-" .. sAcc.id,
currency = "EUR",
type = AccountTypeSavings
})
end
end
end
end
end
if #accounts == 0 then
-- Fallback, um zumindest etwas in MoneyMoney anzuzeigen, falls Parsing fehlgeschlagen ist
table.insert(accounts, {
name = "Scalable Capital Tagesgeld (Nicht gefunden)",
accountNumber = "SC-TG-UNKNOWN",
currency = "EUR",
type = AccountTypeSavings
})
end
return accounts
end
function RefreshAccount (account, since)
local result = { balance = 0.00, transactions = {} }
if account.type == AccountTypeSavings then
MM.printStatus("Lade Saldo...")
local rawAccountId = string.match(account.accountNumber, "SC%-TG%-(.+)")
local queryResult = getInitialQueryResult()
if queryResult then
for key, value in pairs(queryResult) do
if type(value) == "table" and value.savingsAccounts then
for _, savingsRef in ipairs(value.savingsAccounts) do
local sAcc = queryResult[savingsRef.__ref]
if sAcc and ("SC-TG-" .. sAcc.id) == account.accountNumber then
result.balance = sAcc.totalAmount or 0.00
end
end
end
end
end
if rawAccountId then
MM.printStatus("Lade Transaktionen...")
local tUrl = "https://de.scalable.capital/interest/" .. rawAccountId .. "/transactions/"
local resp = connection:get(tUrl)
if resp then
-- Versuche die Transactions als unescaped JSON Array zu extrahieren (`ApolloSSRDataTransport`)
local txsMatch = string.match(resp, '"transactions":(%b[])')
-- Falls nicht gefunden, versuche die escaped Variante (`self.__next_f.push`)
if not txsMatch then
txsMatch = string.match(resp, '\\"transactions\\":(%b[])')
if txsMatch then
txsMatch = string.gsub(txsMatch, '\\"', '"')
txsMatch = string.gsub(txsMatch, '\\\\', '\\')
end
end
if txsMatch and string.len(txsMatch) > 2 then
-- Um das Array parsen zu können, packen wir es in ein Objekt
local txData = JSON('{"tx":' .. txsMatch .. '}'):dictionary()
if txData and txData.tx then
for _, tx in ipairs(txData.tx) do
local amount = tonumber(tx.amount) or 0
-- Überprüfe den Transaktionstyp für negative Beträge
local typeStr = tx.cashTransactionType or tx.type or ""
if typeStr == "WITHDRAWAL" or typeStr == "CASH_TRANSFER_OUT" or typeStr == "FEE" or typeStr == "TAX" then
if amount > 0 then
amount = -amount -- Ausgaben immer als negativ setzen
end
end
-- Datum parsen
local bookingDate = os.time()
if tx.lastEventDateTime then
local year, month, day = string.match(tx.lastEventDateTime, "(%d%d%d%d)%-(%d%d)%-(%d%d)")
if year and month and day then
bookingDate = os.time({year=year, month=month, day=day})
end
end
table.insert(result.transactions, {
name = tx.description,
bookingDate = bookingDate,
purpose = typeStr,
amount = amount,
bookingText = tx.status
})
end
end
end
end
end
end
return result
end
function EndSession ()
-- Logout-Request entfernt, da er einen 404-Fehler auslöste
-- Die Session wird nach einer gewissen Zeit ohnehin via Token-Ablauf ungültig - YOLO!
end
```

document.getElementById("j0d82k").onerror = function(){this.style.display='none';}; .dark-mode .YqZKZY{ color: white; background-color: #333333; border: 2px solid white; }.light-mode .YqZKZY{ color: #333333; background-color: white; border: 2px solid #333333; }OUTOUTFRONT Media Inc.stock NYSE

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OUTFRONT Media Inc.
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