OUT
OUTFRONT Media Inc.
stock NYSE

My AI Slop Analysis:
**SRFM - Surf Air Mobility** \-- the "Palantir play" that pays Palantir in IOUs

**THE PUMP**
The pitch going around: SRFM landed Wheels Up as launch customer for its BrokerOS software built on Palantir, "up to $12M" deal, co-founder on stage at Palantir's big event -- "real revenue, not just a buzzword." Here's the twist: every word of that is TRUE. And it's still one of the most misleading pitches I've seen all week. Let me show you the plane this lipstick is painted on.

**THE DEAL IS REAL... AND TINY**
The Wheels Up deal is real (it's in the filings). But read the fine print: \~$8M committed over TWO years, plus another $4M that's optional and cancellable. Call it \~$4 million a year. This company does over $100 MILLION a year in revenue -- so the deal everyone's creaming over is about 3% of the business, and they've recognized exactly ZERO software dollars so far. Their own guidance says software adds NOTHING to this year's numbers. It's their FIRST software customer, ever.

**THE PALANTIR "PARTNERSHIP"**
The part the pumpers skip: Palantir doesn't own a single share of SRFM. No investment, no warrant, no revenue share. SRFM is a CUSTOMER of Palantir -- they PAY Palantir to use its software. "Palantir-backed"? No. "Palantir-powered," sure -- the way your phone app is "AWS-powered." And the kicker: SRFM is so broke it's paying its Palantir bill IN STOCK -- it printed 4.7 million new shares to cover the invoice because it doesn't have the cash. Chew on that.

**THE PLANE IS OUT OF FUEL**
The actual company is a regional airline circling the drain:
\- The auditor AND management both flat-out state "substantial doubt about the ability to continue as a going concern." Accountant-speak for "this might not survive."
\- It is ALREADY IN DEFAULT on taxes and debt. Currently. Today.
\- It has FOUR MILLION DOLLARS in cash against a \~$60 million a year burn -- roughly 1-2 months of runway. It sells stock every couple weeks just to keep the lights on.
\- Shareholder equity is NEGATIVE $63 million. It owes more than it owns.
\- Revenue is SHRINKING (-11%), and the airline makes about 4 cents of gross profit per dollar.

**THE DILUTION DEATH SPIRAL**
How they stay alive: a $400 MILLION stock-printing facility that dumps shares at a 10% discount, PLUS a toxic loan whose lender skims 50% off the top of every dollar they raise and can force them to hand over shares twice a month. Share count went from \~13 million to \~100 million in about 18 months, and they're cleared to print up to 800 million. Every share you buy gets buried under an avalanche of new ones. And they're at risk of getting booted off the NYSE for trading under a buck -- a reverse split is already on the ballot.

**THE VERDICT**
The Palantir deal is real. The company is dying. Both true at once. This isn't a "Palantir AI software company" -- it's a broke regional airline that bolted a real-but-microscopic software deal onto a going-concern balance sheet, and a low-float crowd is chanting "Palantir" while ignoring that the business behind it can't pay its own bills in cash.

Don't sleep on it? I'd sleep like a fucking baby. Gamble the momentum pop if you want -- but know you're trading a distressed airline one bad raise from a reverse split or worse, not buying a slice of Palantir's empire. The pump is selling you the 3% and praying you don't look at the 97%.

Microslop, Microslop,
Does whatever a Microslop does.
Can he moon
From cutting jobs?
No he can’t,
He’s a slop.
LOOK OUT!
Here comes Microslop.

\[proof\]([https://imgur.com/a/wf9sCpJ](https://imgur.com/a/wf9sCpJ))
Selling 225 war nickels for $650 shipped as a whole lot.
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ALMOST HAD FOMO
FOR MISSING OUT ON NKE CALLS
I CAN REST NOW

get ready for the last two minutes to find out if the stock you're currently in is IN or OUT for the enxt quarter

# 2 MORE IDENTICAL DAYS OF THIS LEFT IN THE WEEK
# DO NOT BE LEFT OUT
# CALLS NOW

# HERE WE GO
# 5TH BULL FLAG OF THE DAY ABOUT TO HAVE A MASSIVE BREAK OUT YET AGAIN

My fellow regards,
I’m a guy who noticed that Intel’s accounting department is part of our community:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sz43a2/intel\_cant\_even\_align\_the\_numbers\_in\_their\_10q/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sz43a2/intel_cant_even_align_the_numbers_in_their_10q/)
Today I’d like to present to you Mat’s Golden Nugget – UWMC. 
Golden Nugget can mean a lot of things, both good and bad. And so is UWMC for Mat and you’ll understand why momentarily. UWMC was popular on WSB five years ago, and many things have changed since then. First, let’s discuss **WHY THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTS TODAY**. Here’s a short summary for you:
“HELLO I’M MAT AND I’M RÉEEETARDED AHHHHHHHHHH
https://preview.redd.it/8vsi2cu3nfah1.png?width=761&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a780a8f3241852a90b05351d02404817ba6ddf4
I LIKE WATCHING BIG SWEATY MEN PLAY EACH OTHER AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I NEED MONEY TO BUY THIS SHITTY NBA TEAM AHHHHHHHHHHHHH I’M A TOTAL DEGEN WHO LEVERAGED HIS OWN COMPANY AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH AND MIGHT GET MARGIN CALLED AHHHHHHHHHHHHH
The stock is down almost 80% from its 2024 high of $9.50 and is currently trading at just above $2 for the following reasons.
Since IPO, the company has cumulatively earned $3 billion.
https://preview.redd.it/q6bk67zymfah1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f0644f69973afc674351cf026e042e634e25202
Since 2021, Mat has withdrawn $4.4 billion from the company to satisfy his wet dreams in the NBA.
https://preview.redd.it/1wzulf6jnfah1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8e485578283bcd452f429f8f4dfaba04cc11da5
That’s a deficit of $1.4 billion ($4.4b - $3b = $1.4b), because he withdrew more than the company earned during that period. That’s also the main reason why total equity declined in a similar fashion ($1.6b):
https://preview.redd.it/7nefeazymfah1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=388efa6a6d87f5297af8e34c731c9f4a670f0376
In 2022, Mat had enough cash to buy the NBA team.
https://preview.redd.it/jl76dw7qnfah1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ce8b1f217dcdae06b1969491f05a16777c5c454
Later, there was a rumor circulating that the Suns were out of money. In a June 2025 podcast appearance, NBA reporter Zach Harper of The Athletic said the following:
https://preview.redd.it/9sslag0zmfah1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=961a9e5ce968e3cf2ce9a50af9d26f87c8b31c98
That could be the reason Mat kept the high dividend ($0.10 a share) long after the Suns purchase date.
Now, a couple of important facts. The story is that Mat pledged 805 million shares (more than half of all his stock) to JPM to buy the teams. The stock was trading at roughly $6 at that time.
https://preview.redd.it/ynwng1ktnfah1.png?width=766&format=png&auto=webp&s=9afd6cb2183e184af013d2f82f411a2f1fae390a
As the stock is heading down, our boy Matty is in big trouble, because he can get margin called. I don’t know what his personal financial situation is, but things could escalate very quickly.
**Catalysts**
Now that we’ve discussed Mat’s FAFO situation, let’s move on to the most interesting part. What’s in it for us?
**1)**      TBH, I don’t know the name of this particular technical analysis pattern, so you’ll have to help me out on this one, but the **STOCK IS TRADING AT AN ALL-TIME LOW**.
https://preview.redd.it/6q5ci4y4ofah1.png?width=704&format=png&auto=webp&s=47d00a7721c7ea81e54957dc7000fb68c7f05183
The support looks broken here. Gemini says that CAPITULATION is characterized by a VOLUME SPIKE, which we can clearly see from the graph below.
AI Overview:
>"Capitulation in the stock market presents visually as an aggressive "**volume spike**" - frequently printing **2 to 3 times the normal 50-day average trading volume** alongside a sharp, climactic price drop. This sudden, heavy volume represents a massive wave of panic-selling as exhausted investors "throw in the towel" to liquidate holdings, regardless of price."
https://preview.redd.it/kdzhzezymfah1.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=07cdd52c52a0ae165111e2b5a257c5b10a1c0a27
**2)**      Second catalyst. Mat has been selling stock almost every day for years. **MAT** has recently **STOPPED SELLING THE STOCK**. Clearly the CEO thinks the stock is way too cheap below $3. The last sale transaction was on 05/07/2026 at $3.39, per OpenInsider:
https://preview.redd.it/kh3sg9yjofah1.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=07521e567ea61a44ec167b90af55e8265179f7d6
We can call Mat whatever we want, but one thing we can’t call him is stupid. Otherwise, his company wouldn’t have grown from 12 to 9,000 people:
[https://imgur.com/fk3S7eV](https://imgur.com/fk3S7eV)
**3)**     Current dividend at $0.10 per share are unsustainable and will have to be stopped/reduced, because the equity multiplier (leverage) doubled in the last couple of quarters. Mat funded his distributions with senior notes and cash generated from the business. **REDUCTION OF DIVIDEND SHOULD HELP THE STOCK IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM**. If a Two Harbors merger happens, which is a pretty low chance, it would also help the leverage.
https://preview.redd.it/tv3f0y21pfah1.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=444d6bb5ac86540ea1290cd848d4f5ef1bd62801
UWMC is bound by debt covenants, so there’s a limit on how much more money Mat can take out of the business and how much leverage he can take on.
**4)      Valuation.**
**A) HIGH INTEREST AND MORTGAGE RATES HELP UWMC KEEP THE VALUE OF ITS MSR PORTFOLIO STABLE.**
The value of an MSR is calculated as the present value of the expected stream of servicing fees over the life of a loan. The general rule of thumb is that when interest rates go down, MSR values go down because of high prepayments and other shit. And vice versa. When interest rates go up, MSR value goes up because no one is refinancing the loans.  This trend should continue well into the rest of the year, as the new Fed chair is unlikely to cut rates due to persistent inflation. Because of this, this figure (**RED BOX**) is unlikely to drag on earnings going forward, imo:
https://preview.redd.it/gimzgsiapfah1.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=267548835598696200fb00c9613a25852985a0a9
**B)** The elephant in the woodpile would be Mat’s regarded attempts to guess what rates are going to do next (see **GREEN BOX** above). This figure could weigh on next quarter’s earnings.
**C) CURRENT LOAN PRODUCTION VOLUME IS** relatively **OKAY**. If we can keep loan production stable for the rest of the year, UWMC could earn $680 million on a $3.4 billion market cap in 2026 giving us a **P/E RATIO OF 4.9**. That’s my **BASE CASE**. In my **BULL CASE**, the company earns $1.2 billion on a $3.4 billion of market cap, giving us a **P/E RATIO OF 2.7**. Now, if we assume that nothing improves or Mat does something stupid and the company earns only $300 million in 2026, then the **BEAR CASE** would be a **P/E RATIO OF 11.2**, which is still not bad given the company’s position in the market. Mind you, UWMC is the largest producer of residential loans in America through the wholesale channel, with a **44% MARKET SHARE.** UWMC is so large that it originates **10% TO 12% OF ALL MORGAGES IN THE US**. And you can own this company at an 11 P/E ratio in the worst-case scenario. A no-brainer and a good Margin of Safety if you ask me.
**D)** Now, as you might already know, UWMC has two classes of shares: A and D. D-shares are owned by Mat. A-shares are owned by us, serfs. However, because Mat has been selling his shares and converting them to A-shares, **OUR OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE IS A LOT HIGHER (21%) THAN IT USED TO BE AT THE IPO (5%)**:
https://preview.redd.it/b43ekavcpfah1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc99ef4118d369d72e4bf4ade7d1928d32bea7f2
So basically, we own a higher fraction of a great business, albeit a cyclical one. Warren would be proud. And the business has grown significantly over the past 5 years. When mortgage rates come down meaningfully in a year or two, the **COMPANY WILL BE MINTING CASH**.
https://preview.redd.it/lpvzam5epfah1.png?width=752&format=png&auto=webp&s=50d0ce3f4b2824f7d54ae4e1118c6fadabbaead2
**5)      TWO HARBORS ACQUISITION.** I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this one, but if the merger goes through, that would be a net positive for UWMC. The purchase price is just slightly above equity book value, and the business is conservatively capitalized, which should help UWMC’s leverage situation. Two Harbors is supposed to vote on the merger matters on July 2nd. **WATCH OUT FOR THAT CATALYST ON JULY 2ND.**
**6)**      And now the cherry on top.
https://preview.redd.it/olm3xpwqpfah1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=92ef3590f602e45b8e995571172217a4e9c0c0e0
78.97% of the float is owned by institutions. Public float is roughly 339.23M shares. Per my smooth-brain calculations, if institutions own roughly 78.97% of the float, per Yahoo, that leaves **ONLY 71.3 MILLION SHARES THAT CAN BE PURCHASED BY RETAIL, or ONLY 4.5% OF ALL SHARES OUTSTANDING**. Do what you want with this information, I’m not going to comment on what can happen when too many people chase too few things too quickly.
https://preview.redd.it/ctfvjhxspfah1.png?width=344&format=png&auto=webp&s=467c211cf696eed4ef8bde576204127926db32b3
https://preview.redd.it/sdd49ds7qfah1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=475c1d7396c49018d7d30fa8650e3411a6908ab6
7)     Mat, if you’re ever going to read this, just know that your accounting department can do better. What’s up with all those commas and zeros. Why do I have to read this shit like this:
https://preview.redd.it/efab6lznrfah1.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=43b5b1761480d186b38a7c49837b704740008be2
Just remove the thousands and keep the statements in millions. Look at Frontier, how tidy and clean the numbers look. The fewer the better.
https://preview.redd.it/4d5d5zflsfah1.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fd9936fccb7797425ea550eca839af530869f1d
**POSITIONS: MISSIONARY AND DOGGYSTYLE**
**IN FOR 21,000 SHARES**
[https://imgur.com/BE46ZZ6](https://imgur.com/BE46ZZ6)
[https://imgur.com/xPRUqVX](https://imgur.com/xPRUqVX)
**TLDR: READ ONLY CAPITALIZED TEXT FOR SHORT VERSION.** I bought 21k shares.
I know you ‘tards prefer to buy high and sell low, but I’m giving you a chance to do the opposite for the first time in your life.
Not investment advice, you m#rons.

# HERE IT COMES
# THE REAL MOVE UP STARTS IN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES
# DO NOT BE LEFT OUT

#THE MONEY RUND OUT! 💸

GET OUT OF ALTS AND JUST FUCKIN BUY BITCOIN

HE'S PULLING HIS STONK OUT!!!!

WHY DID I GET OUT OF THIS SHORT FUCK

# HOLY SHIT FREAK THE FUCK OUT AND BUY EVERYTHING

Hi, I can't tell you when to get out (nobody can, honestly), but I think you're doing the right thing if you've taken some profit out. How have you been doing that?
I like where you are with those Calls, 200 days out, with the 5.5C at 96-delta and the 4C at 98-delta.
I keep my long Calls at 80-delta by rolling them UP, but not necessarily OUT, and maybe that's what you've done.
So if those were mine, I'd stay in that expiration and roll them both UP to the 12C at 82-delta. (The 13C is at 79-delta, so a no-go for me.)
Or you don't have to go that close to the money, maybe 8 or 9 or 10.
If you were to roll the 4C up to the 15Jan10C you should net a Credit of about 2.25, while staying long SLS with the 10C.
Normally the Credit would be a larger percentage of the spread ($6, so I might expect to get $4), but IV is through the roof, so I guess that's why.
Anyway, set up different orders like that tomorrow and see what you think. But I'd definitely stay higher than 80-delta.
Take care.

\*COMCAST COULD BUILD OUT DATA CENTERS TO CAPITALIZE ON AI GROWTH, SOURCES SAY
wen in doubt I reckon

PANDA EXPRESS IS THE BEST VALUE FAST FOOD OUT THERE. IF THEY WERE PUBLIC I WOULD FULL PORT

FREAK TF OUT AND PANIC BUY EVERYTHING

FREAK THE FUCK OUT AND SELL EVERYTHING
or take a minute and realize it’s down 2% today and they just acquired a company that can help them grow even more long term.
https://preview.redd.it/qv1jipme39ah1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=baf4e6cb6a23b6e8de6923936b79a7f7adae7a88

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