OUT Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

# TLDR
* CME halted all metals trading yesterday (Feb 25) at 12:15 PM ET — **First Intent Day** for March silver delivery. Silver was at $91.29.
* During the 90-minute halt, **31,828 March silver contracts changed hands in a single candle** (see chart below). Normal trading produced \~4,300 all day.
* When trading resumed, silver crashed $3 in one hour to $88.19. All day orders and GTD orders were cancelled.
* March OI dropped from 21,882 to **10,526**. The 10,526 remaining are longs who **refused** whatever cash settlement was offered during the halt.
* **First Notice Day is tomorrow (Feb 27).** The standing number will be published Friday morning. Iran-Geneva talks are happening right now.
# The Volume Tells the Story
Look at this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/7zyqiktqwtlg1.jpg?width=1006&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8943e5155e2c533a7aef6f8989694bdbcd16a16e
This is the March silver futures contract on Feb 25. The x-axis is time, the candlesticks are price. See that tiny bar at 12:45 PM ET? **31,828 contracts** — in a single 15-minute candle, during a trading halt when the market was supposedly closed.
For context:
* The entire rest of the trading day produced \~4,300 March contracts
* 31,828 contracts = **159.1 million ounces** of notional silver
* That's **88% of all March volume for the day**, executed while retail and most institutional traders couldn't access the market
* COMEX registered silver (the metal available for delivery) is 86.3M oz. This single candle traded nearly 2x the entire registered stockpile.
CME called it "technical issues." They cancelled all day orders and GTD orders. GTC orders remained. No explanation. No post-mortem. The official status page now reads: *"There are no current issues."*
# What Happened During the Halt
The volume data points to off-exchange / OTC deals executed during the halt window:
1. **Longs holding March contracts were offered cash settlement premiums** to exit their positions before First Notice Day
2. **31,828 contracts accepted** — either voluntarily or under pressure from the halt conditions
3. **\~10,526 contracts refused** — these longs said no to whatever was offered
4. When trading resumed at \~1:45 PM ET, the sell pressure hit: silver dropped from \~$91 to $88.19 in one hour
This matches the pattern from the November 2025 halt, where reports emerged that *"ongoing silver futures buy-orders were cancelled during the halt"* and JP Morgan showed a 12.5M oz registered-to-eligible reclassification the same day.
**This is the third exchange intervention in three months** (November halt, Black Friday crash, February 25 halt). Each time, silver was approaching key technical or delivery-related levels.
# The Numbers That Matter
# March Open Interest (T-2 = yesterday)
|Date|March OI|Change|Context|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Jan 27|97,949|\--|Peak|
|Feb 19 (T-6)|47,847|\-50,102|Normal roll|
|Feb 23 (T-4)|37,651|\-10,196|Normal roll|
|Feb 24 (T-3)|21,882|\-15,769|Massive organic roll|
|**Feb 25 (T-2)**|**10,526**|**-11,356**|**88% during halt**|
The Feb 24 drop (-15,769) was organic — the market functioned normally. The Feb 25 drop (-11,356) was not. 88% of the volume occurred in a single candle during a trading halt.
# FND Standing Projection (tomorrow)
Historical T-2 to T-1 (FND) retention rates:
|Scenario|Retention|Projected Standing|M oz|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Normal years (2013-2015)|\~30%|\~3,200|16M|
|Squeeze years (2021, 2025)|\~70%|\~7,100-7,500|36-38M|
The 10,526 remaining are longs who explicitly rejected the halt deal. These are by definition the most committed delivery seekers. Historical "normal" retention may not apply — the weak hands were already shaken out artificially.
# COMEX Inventory
|Category|Current|Change since Feb 6|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Registered**|**86.3M oz**|**-16.2M (-15.8%)**|
|Eligible|275.6M oz|\-16.4M|
|**Total**|**361.8M oz**|**-32.7M (-8.3%)**|
Registered has dropped from 102.5M to 86.3M oz in 12 business days. Brinks reclassified 1.07M oz from registered to eligible yesterday — pulling metal OUT of the delivery pool right before FND.
# May OI: The Real Threat
**May 2026 OI: 75,815 contracts (379M oz)** — up from 25,001 on Jan 27. This is a 203% increase and the largest pre-delivery buildup for any month in the dataset. May is now **7.2x larger than March**.
CME can halt and negotiate once. Can it do it every month?
# Physical Market Signals
All pointing to extreme tightness:
* **London silver lease rates: 34.9%**, intraday peaks to **39%** — the cost of borrowing physical silver is at extreme levels
* **Shanghai (SGE) silver: $101.51/oz** vs COMEX $88.91 — a **14.2% premium**, up from \~10% last week. Shanghai is paying $12.60/oz more than New York.
* **SD Bullion retail: $102/oz** — already pricing at Shanghai, not COMEX
* **Shanghai exchanges below 800 metric tons combined** — the LBMA's claimed "5,000 metric tons" of free-float has evaporated
* **CME hiked March silver margins to $78,756** (+12.2%) — each contract now requires \~$444K face value + $78.8K maintenance
* Gainesville Coins / depository reports of **refusing delivery of platinum and silver** at the retail level
The paper market can cancel orders and negotiate cash settlements during halts. It cannot manufacture physical silver.
# What's Next — 48 Hours
|Date|Event|Watch For|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Feb 26 (TODAY)**|First Position Day + Iran-Geneva talks (happening now)|Longs must post full value (\~$444K/contract). Who gets liquidated? Iran outcome = binary risk event.|
|**Feb 27 (Thu)**|**First Notice Day**|**The standing number.** How many of the 10,526 are still there?|
|**Feb 28 (Fri)**|CFTC COT published (Feb 24 positions)|Will capture the massive 37K-contract March OI decline. Most dramatic positioning shift of the campaign.|
**Simplified scenarios from here:**
|Outcome|What It Means|Probability|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Standing < 3,000|CME halt worked. Orderly March. May is the new battleground.|25%|
|Standing 3,000-5,000|Normal delivery month. Comparable to 2024.|35%|
|Standing 5,000-7,500|Elevated. The halt-hardened longs held. Stress test for registered.|25%|
|Standing > 7,500|Near-record. These longs want metal. May will be worse.|15%|
**Price scenarios by end of May:**
* Bear ($55-78): 7% — CME intervenes repeatedly, deleveraging
* Base ($92-115): 33% — orderly but tight, drain continues
* Bull ($120-165): 38% — delivery stress persists, May escalates
* Extreme ($165-220+): 22% — delivery failure, cascading squeeze
* **Probability-weighted average: \~$142/oz**
# Why This Matters
The question is no longer "how many contracts will stand for delivery." CME showed yesterday it will halt the market and engineer OI reductions when delivery pressure gets uncomfortable.
The question is now about **credibility**. COMEX exists as a price discovery mechanism. Three halts in three months — with the latest producing 88% of volume during closure — erodes the foundation of that function. Capital is already flowing to Shanghai (+14% premium), Singapore, and physical markets.
Peter Brandt (Market Wizards co-author) publicly asked yesterday: *"Have all the silver conspiracy theories been true?"*
When mainstream market practitioners start asking that question, the paper price becomes less relevant. SD Bullion is already at $102. Shanghai is at $101.51. The COMEX print of $88.91 is becoming the outlier, not the benchmark.
May at 75,815 contracts is watching. FND is tomorrow.
*This is not financial advice. All projections are scenario-based and conditional on data available.*

# Today is Wednesday, the 25th of February
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, February 25th
- Stock splits:
- SVRE @ **1:4**
- Expected earnings:
A, ACAD, ACHC, ADGM, ADMA, ADTN, AGL, AHT, AI, ALEC, ALKS, ALKT, ALLT, AMRN, AMSF, AOMR, APA, APG, ARKO, ARQT, ARRY, ASPI, ASPN, ASTE, AUGO, AVA, BATRA, BATRK, BBLG, BBOT, BBSI, BJRI, BKV, BLFY, BLMN, BMO, BXSL, BYND, CAPL, CARL, CBZ, CCAP, CCIF, CHDN, CHE, CHMI, CHRD, CHYM, CLDT, CLMB, CLPT, CPHI, CPK, CPRX, CRCL, CRGY, CRM, CSV, CTRI, CUB, CWT, DBRG, DHIL, DIN, DMRC, DOLE, DORM, DRVN, DXPE, ECPG, EE, EFC, EHTH, ENVX, EPR, ERII, ESEA, FIHL, FLYE, FMX, FSK, FSS, FTAI, GDRX, GEF.B, GERN, GHC, GLNG, GNL, GRBK, GRFS, HAYW, HBB, HCAT, HCI, HEI, HEI.A, HIPO, HNI, HNST, HOV, HSBC, HTO, HUT, IBTA, ICLR, IEP, IMAX, IMCR, IMXI, INN, INVA, INVZ, IONQ, IONS, IRWD, JOBY, JOE, KGS, KNTK, KROS, KURA, KW, LAW, LB, LFST, LIFE, LINE, LINK, LIVN, LMAT, LOW, LSF, LTBR, LXU, MANU, MDLN, MDXG, MEG, METC, METCB, MGNI, MGPI, MGRC, MIAX, MIRM, MLTX, MLYS, MRVI, MYRG, NGD, NGVT, NMRK, NOG, NPKI, NRDS, NSA, NTNX, NVDA, NWPX, OC, ODD, ORA, OSUR, OUT, PARK, PCSC, PEB, PFSA, PLAB, PNTG, PNW, PR, PRAA, PRSU, PSKY, PSTG, RCUS, RDW, ROOT, RRGB, RVMD, RXRX, RXST, SAFT, SARO, SBGI, SBLK, SBXD, SDGR, SDRL, SEMR, SEZL, SHOO, SHPH, SKYT, SLNO, SM, SMA, SMHI, SNOW, SNPS, SPOK, SRI, SRPT, SSP, STKL, STN, STRL, STWD, SVC, SWX, TASK, TBLA, TBPH, TCOM, TDOC, TIPT, TJX, TKO, TLF, TPH, TRIN, TSE, TSHA, TTD, TTI, TWFG, UCFI, UGP, UHS, UHT, UMH, URBN, USPH, UTHR, UWMC, VAC, VCIC, VCYT, VECO, VERA, VICI, VIST, VIVS, VLN, VSEC, VTOL, WHD, WSR, WTRG, XPEL, XPER, XRN, XTIA, XZO, YOU, ZBIO, ZIP, ZM, ZVIA
- Ex-div:
AIPI, CDW, DYFI, EA, EQIX, FEAT, FEPI, FIVY, KELYA, KELYB, KQQQ, MST, PSEC, QDTY, QLDY, QQQH, RDTY, RMBI, SDTY, TLF, TSYX, TXXD, TXXS, YBMN
- Economic events and announcements:
- 2-Year Note Auction (actual: 3.455%, previous: 3.580%)
- ADP Employment Change Weekly (actual: 12.80K, previous: 11.50K)
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (actual: 11.400M, consensus: 1.850M, previous: -0.609M)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (actual: 3.1%, consensus: 3.1%, previous: 3.1%)
- CB Consumer Confidence (actual: 91.2, consensus: 87.4, previous: 89.0)
- Dallas Fed Services Revenues (actual: 4.1, previous: 7.8)
- FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- Fed Collins Speaks
- Fed Collins Speaks
- Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- Fed Governor Cook Speaks
- Fed Waller Speaks
- House Price Index (actual: 0.1%, consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.7%)
- House Price Index (actual: 1.8%, previous: 2.1%)
- House Price Index (actual: 440.4, previous: 439.7)
- M2 Money Supply (actual: 22.44T, previous: 22.40T)
- Redbook (actual: 6.7%, previous: 7.2%)
- Richmond Manufacturing Index (actual: -10, consensus: -8, previous: -6)
- Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (actual: -13, previous: -5)
- Richmond Services Index (actual: -8, previous: -3)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (actual: -0.1%, previous: 0.0%)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (actual: 1.4%, consensus: 1.3%, previous: 1.4%)
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (actual: 0.5%, previous: 0.5%)
- Texas Services Sector Outlook (actual: -3.2, previous: 2.7)
- U.S. President Trump Speaks
- Wholesale Inventories (actual: 0.2%, consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.2%)
- Wholesale Trade Sales (actual: 1.0%, previous: 1.4%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, February 26th
- Stock splits:
- FRSX @ **1:3**
- CRCA @ **1:10**
- ZSL @ **1:10**
- Expected earnings:
AAOI, ABTC, ACA, ACIW, ACLX, ACMR, ACRS, ACU, ADSK, AES, AEVA, AGO, AHR, AIRG, AKBA, ALEX, ALHC, ALT, ALTG, AMBA, AMBP, AMPH, AMWD, ANAB, ANIK, ARBE, ARGX, ARHS, ARLO, ASUR, AUPH, AVAL, AVPT, BABA, BAK, BCO, BCRX, BCSF, BDSX, BFLY, BHR, BIDU, BKSY, BLD, BLFS, BLND, BSY, BUR, BVN, BWIN, BWMX, CABO, CAI, CARS, CBIO, CCCC, CCEC, CCO, CDRO, CDXS, CELH, CERT, CGEM, CLDX, CLOV, CLPR, CM, CMBT, CMPS, CMPX, CODI, COLL, COMP, CON, CPNG, CQP, CRAI, CRDF, CRNX, CRON, CRWV, CSAI, CSTL, CTKB, CTRA, CUBE, CV, CVEO, DAIO, DCGO, DCI, DCO, DCTH, DEC, DELL, DFTX, DH, DMLP, DNA, DNLI, DNUT, DQ, DRH, DSX, DUOL, DV, DYN, E, EB, EBS, ECVT, EFXT, EIC, ELME, EME, ENIC, ENOV, EOSE, ESTC, EVTC, EXFY, FA, FCN, FDUS, FER, FGBI, FIGR, FIGS, FIP, FLOC, FLUT, FOUR, FOXF, FTDR, FTRE, FWONA, FWONK, GBTG, GCT, GDEN, GDOT, GHI, GHRS, GIL, GLDG, GLOB, GOCO, GOLF, GPCR, GREE, GRND, GSBD, GTN, GTN.A, HAFN, HEPS, HGTY, HGV, HLN, HMR, HPP, HRL, HRTX, HTZ, IART, IBOC, IBP, ICFI, ICG, IMNN, IMPP, INDV, INOD, INSW, INTU, INTZ, INV, IPWR, IQ, IRON, JANX, JCAP, JSPR, KBR, KIDS, KIDZ, KOP, KRP, KYMR, LASR, LBRDA, LBRDK, LBRX, LGND, LIF, LIMN, LIND, LLYVA, LLYVK, LNG, LNSR, LNTH, LOAR, LONA, LSTA, MAIN, MARA, MASI, MBI, MCS, MDRR, MDXH, MESO, MFIC, MIDD, MLCI, MNKD, MNST, MP, MRP, MSDL, MTZ, NATL, NAUT, NCDL, NCMI, NEXA, NEXM, NHC, NHI, NLOP, NMAX, NNI, NOEM, NOMD, NRDY, NREF, NTAP, NTLA, NTRA, NU, NUVL, NVAX, NVCR, NVNO, NXST, ONC, OPK, OPRA, OPRT, ORGO, OS, OSPN, PAR, PAYO, PBA, PBFS, PBYI, PCRX, PCT, PEG, PENN, PGNY, PHAT, PLTK, PRGO, PRKS, PRM, PRMB, PRVA, PSBD, PSHG, PSNL, PUBM, PZZA, Q, QBTS, QVCGA, RAIN, RBNE, RC, RCKT, REAL, RKLB, RKT, RLAY, RLJ, RNA, ROCK, RUN, RXT, RY, RYTM, SBAC, SBR, SEER, SG, SHAK, SHEN, SITC, SJM, SLN, SMP, SMR, SNDX, SOC, SOLV, SOUN, SPT, SRE, STLA, STRA, STRZ, SUIG, TD, TDAY, TDW, TFX, TGLS, TGNA, TGS, TGTX, THRY, TIGO, TKC, TKNO, TLN, TNGX, TPC, TRDA, TRS, TTEC, TTRX, TV, TWI, UEIC, ULH, USAR, UUUU, VCEL, VIPS, VISN, VITL, VOXR, VRDN, VST, VTEX, VTRS, VTYX, VYX, WATT, WBD, WD, WFCF, WLDN, WPP, WRBY, WULF, WVE, WW, WWW, WYFI, XENE, XNCR, XPOF, XRAY, XYZ, ZLAB, ZS
- Ex-div:
ACT, CATY, CGNX, CSPI, MAR, SGA
- Economic events and announcements:
- 5-Year Note Auction (previous: 3.823%)
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: -1.132M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (consensus: 1.800M, previous: -9.014M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -1.095M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: 0.028M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: 0.077M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: -4.566M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: 1.6%)
- FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- Fed Schmid Speaks
- Fed's Balance Sheet (previous: 6,613B)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: -3.213M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: 0.290M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: 0.362M)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.17%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: 2.8%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 157.1)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 339.0)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 1,375.9)
- Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (previous: 2.960T)
## Upcoming events for Friday, February 27th
- Stock splits:
- SF @ **3:2**
- Expected earnings:
ABR, AIRO, ALBT, ALDX, ALXO, AMR, AMRX, ANIP, APVO, ARAI, BFS, BRK.A, BRK.B, BTSG, CCEL, CEPO, CLMT, DCBO, DIBS, DK, DKL, DVS, ELPC, ESCA, FCUV, FDMT, FGNX, FLGT, FLNT, FORA, FRO, GASS, GIG, GLP, GOGO, GSAT, GTBP, GTLS, HE, IGC, INTT, IQST, ITRM, LGVN, NIQ, NOMA, NRP, NRT, NTHI, NTIP, NUTR, NVX, NWN, OXSQ, PRME, PSO, PTGX, RPID, RVYL, SAFX, SBLX, SCLX, SEV, SGRP, SHO, SLAI, SONM, TAC, TCPC, TEO, TMCI, TXNM, USBC, VGZ, VIA, XXI
- Ex-div:
ACNB, AGNC, ATLCP, ATLO, BPYPM, BPYPN, BPYPO, BPYPP, CCLDO, CCNE, COLB, EFSCP, EMBC, FCNCA, FCNCO, FCNCP, FXNC, HON, IBKR, JAKK, LNKB, MARPS, MCHPP, MFICL, MGEE, MLAB, MLKN, MVBF, NWL, PANL, PFIS, POWI, POWWP, SATA, SIGIP, STEP, STRRP, TMUS, TRMK, TRS, YORW, ZIONP
- Economic events and announcements:
- 4-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.625%)
- 7-Year Note Auction (previous: 4.018%)
- 8-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.630%)
- Continuing Jobless Claims (consensus: 1,860K, previous: 1,869K)
- FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 217K, previous: 206K)
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (previous: 219.00K)
- KC Fed Composite Index (previous: 0)
- KC Fed Manufacturing Index (previous: -2)
- Natural Gas Storage (consensus: -36B, previous: -144B)
## Upcoming events for Saturday, February 28th
- Economic events and announcements:
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 3.1%, previous: 3.1%)
- CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (previous: -2.7K)
- CFTC Copper speculative net positions (previous: 59.3K)
- CFTC Corn speculative net positions (previous: -7.8K)
- CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (previous: 141.3K)
- CFTC Gold speculative net positions (previous: 159.9K)
- CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (previous: 24.4K)
- CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions (previous: -185.8K)
- CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (previous: -177.8K)
- CFTC Silver speculative net positions (previous: 24.0K)
- CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions (previous: 191.8K)
- CFTC Wheat speculative net positions (previous: -55.1K)
- Chicago PMI (consensus: 52.4, previous: 54.0)
- Construction Spending (previous: 0.5%)
- Core PPI (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.7%)
- Core PPI (previous: 3.3%)
- PPI (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.5%)
- PPI (previous: 3.0%)
- PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (previous: 0.4%)
- PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (previous: 3.5%)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (previous: 409)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (previous: 551)
^^^^2026-02-25

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