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and while your epiphany is generally correct (scarcity, limited supply, potential for demand increasing), let us not be completely blind to certain realities that any chart can prove true
bitcoin is a massively volative risk on asset. it is pure speculation that drives price.
whereas in the past, it has been retail investors and a small group of wealth funding that has driven the explosive trajectory of price, that has changed in several fundamental ways:
there is now more control over price from major institutional powerhouse entities, such as blackrock for example, who are pressured to show short term returns AND to delimit risk exposure at all times. In this sense, it is not wise to assume the same explosive growth will happen again...the more likely scenario is wide ranging volatility bands and then in the long term windows, a gradual increase in price.
there remain some unknowns about regulation and policy control, especially for nation states such as the USA that alters course about each 4 years. Plus monetary policies changes which have a significant impact on liquidity and thus the risk on markets
examine a monthly chart that goes all the way back to the very first public traded price for bitcoin. Zoom OUT. What do you see. Yes, that price has exploded from bottom to top. But what do you also see? Massive price corrections, or as they like to call it "deleveraging events". Can you count how many times that bitcoin has plummeted by at least 50 percent of its value? Count that number. Understand what that really means. If history is useful it informs of what to assume about the nature of things. Not necessarily that history repeats itself, but a pattern emerges. Whether that patterns repeats in some mechanical or linear way is the wrong way to interpret the pattern as an investor. But what it should do is help us be realistic and prepared for the enevitable drawdowns that WILL OCCUR TO A PORTFOLIO THAT IS EXPOSED TO A HIGHLY VOLATILE ASSET CLASS.
don't bet the farm. if you can't weather a 50 percent or more drawdown in your portfolio that can extends FOR YEARS, investing in bitcoin is not something your should even consider.
the likelihood of bitcoin making similar growth rate gains are low given the fundamentals have changed. Set expectations according. I personally view anything above 300,000 which is nearly 3 times the recent all time high to have a time horizon of at least 10 years, maybe more. No particular math or inside crystal ball, but a simple way to express my own strategy. This is where I plan to take a major profit...around 300K and if it never happens, then it's 200K..again, thinking long term...10 years.
and lastly, there are other risks, some old but still relevant and some very new. Theft and hacking...this will also be a problem for bitcoin, specifically the blockchain. Fundamentally, if I lose control over my banking account, I can STILL go to my bank, present my credentials and proof of ownership and get my account open and return of funds. And also FDIC applies to banking if for example the bank goes insolvent...or natural disaster...etc. None of these things are available to bitcoin/blockchain owners and investors. BY the very nature of how ownership is determined, should you lose for any reason your seed phrase, the funds can never be returned to you, no matter what other kinds of identification proving you are the rightful owner. Until this is changed about account and ownership, it stands as perhaps one of the most stupid and crazy ideas and protecting the investor. That is one of the main reasons why bitcoin will never be accepted by a high majority of customer/investors/users. They will find out the hard way get screwed and then it will become MORE WELL KNOWN, just how stupid the entire system was designed and remains unfixed.
this last one, ties into the above reasons why bitcoin is very risky. As most know by now, there is a great threat sooner than later that nefarious entities WILL posses quantum hacking tools that will be the biggest risk to the blockchain. While there are some plans in motion to upgrade to newer quantum RESISTANT protocols, it's not clear and transparent how that can actually be done, if even possible. This ties into the problem relating to account ownership of tokens. If there are no other ways to prove ownership and the entire system relies of secrecy of the so called unbreakable encryption standards, then block chain is toast. it is just a matter of when, not if. And consider that risk in other ways also. Even the perception of an actual quantum attack, whether funds were stolen or not, will have an immediate impact of bitcoin and the interest in it. One minor incident and the entire investing community will panic and prices will fall so fast that exchanges and market makers will likely put the brakes on and suspend all trading...leaving you in the worst possible condition...incapable of withdrawing your funds as you watch the entire market crash...that day is a LOT CLOSER than most people understand. Again, just the perception of a serious incident is all it will take. A good example is the recent layer zero debacle. almost 300 million stolen and that did not even involve quantum hacking...the impact caused several major lending entities and exchanges to halt operations. This meant much more than the initial 300 Million theft was involved. What followed was a massive exodus from the layer zero network, regardless that the autopsy showed that the layer zero security is actually quite good, but as with most things, it was the execution of that security by a third party that failed. But the point is that the perception that layer zero is not trustworthy is all that matters. It would be the same thing for bitcoin if there was some kind of incident where trading was halted. Perceptions in a speculative market are very powerful. quantum attacks are however, much more significant than any other kinds of threats, because the underlying security is at risk...PLUS, as stated above, account ownership cannot be established any other way than the knowledge of a seed phrase. That makes the quantum threat much more impactful because it will expose the reality of this fundamental risk that has never been addressed.
anyway, we should be smart with our money...be informed and be realistic about outcomes. It's been said that 99 percent of all retail traders go broke...that is they lose all their money. This is a general way to describe the likelihood of 100 percent account loss is true for nearly all traders. Notice I did not use the term, investor. One should understand the difference in terms of how both look at risk and reward. One is aiming to get rich quick and the other a more measured risk adjusted approach. Which group do you belong to is of little importance when it comes to bitcoin. It will expose the weakness of either group over time.

God Bless America

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