MP
MP Materials Corp.
stock NYSE

Same, few day ago I heard about additional gov funding in rare metals. I remembered and entered MP and LAC . MP was up that day but didn't know LAC would pop.

Both INTC and MP Materials are bound to increase their stocks because the State owns part of the shares now and they damn sure want these stocks to grow so they earn money themselves.

MP
AMAT
HIMS
HOOD
TEMPUS AI

Been sitting on LAC for about 4 months. Hoping it behaves like MP did when the fed gave them MP a boost. If it does, LAC should jump nicely tomorrow. I'll sell my initial buy in +10% and the just let the rest ride.

So, I feel your data is confusing, and the bits I looked into i dont quite feel capture the essence of what most see and believe. I know you will give me shit for that, so just hold that thought. Im not necessarily attacking your data, but I certainly won't mistake my confusion with it as an equivalent that you know better than I do.
Please answer this, though:
If you believe the DO manipulate the price of the stock, and they DO make the most profits if it closes at MP on friday close, then, why would you think that they WOULDNT do that?

If max pain is a leading indicator of price action, or if price gravitates toward max pain, it would stand to reason that the thing that matters most is the *effect of max pain on price*... which is kind of the whole point. The closeness of close to max pain is an artifact of NTE options OI, and, if you look at the data *in this post*, you'd see that.
Can you tell me specifically why those date ranges were selected? I can run it, but am not interested in doing so unless you can concretely identify why those dates are of particular interest to you for this comparison. trying not to overfit here...
**Here's unfiltered:**
* Percent Friday moves toward MP: 49.30%
* Percent Mon→Fri moves toward MP: 8.45%
**Percent of Fridays closing within $X of Max Pain Vs MP on Thursday (all data)**
* Within $0.05: Current MP = 5.63%, Previous MP = 5.63%
* Within $0.10: Current MP = 11.27%, Previous MP = 11.27%
* Within $0.15: Current MP = 15.49%, Previous MP = 15.49%

Max pain doesnt have a "pull effect". The price is manipulated down to MP on most friday afternoons that they can get away with it. MMs make the most profit when it lands at max pain.
You're out here screaming at people, disrespecting us and treating us like children, and we brush you off. Want to know why? We've all been watching this for 5 years and you think your eyes are better. Nah. My eyes and memory are pretty good.
Biggest question for you: why does this bother you so much?
Slightly lesser question but curious: do you believe this stock is manipulated?

I entered in Sept for $20k, although have been watching this stock for about a year. Never doubled my money this fast on anything. I haven't sold and don't plan to. If you look at Intel and MP materials, they not only sustained their initial gains but they went up even more in the coming weeks.
Also, this stock had a large short (11% of float). So that's a LOT of traders who now have to cover... have we even seen the short squeeze yet? Those traders are going to hold out as long as they can, but if the price doesn't come down in the next few days they'll have no choice but to buy and drive the price up.
To me this is more like winning a slot machine, it's sort of found money as I never expected this to happen.

MP spiked like this and held fairly strong levels. Why would this be different? Isn't their Thacker pass project quite significant for lithium supply over the coming decades?

MP Quant Signals LEAP V2 2025-09-24

Thank you very much for your answer. I have done some numeric test (not anything too fancy, but still solid). And in short, you are right, and my previous intuition was wrong.
In case you or someone else wants to replicate:
\- I calculated the difference between the price at the open, and the MP and I normalized it: open\_MP=(open-MP)/open.
\- I calculated the difference between the price at the close, and the MP and I normalized it: close\_MP=(close-MP)/close.
Then I plotted the scatter relation between these (x=open\_MP, y=close\_MP). In case it is true that price gravitates toward MP, then I should see kind of a flat line, meaning that distance to MP tend to decrease during the friday (y=0 means that it is closing at MP). The correlation is fucking positive:
r=0.94 !!!!!
That meaning: distances do not change significantly toward the MP.
Then I tested the idea that maybe those days when the price opens close to the MP, then it stays close to MP. For that:
\- I calculated the absolute distance between open-MP and close-MP, and then I calculated the difference between them and normalized (using the mid price of the day): DIF\_close\_open= \[ABS(close-MP) - ABS(open-MP)\] / average(high,low)
This DIF\_close\_open indicates if the absolute distance between price and MP is increasing (DIF\_close\_open>0) or decreasing (DIF\_close\_open<0) during friday.
Then I did some numbers:
a) 54% of the fridays, the distance decreases. It seems a lot, but in fact, is just random (flip a coin, if tails it goes toward MP, if heads it it goes away of MP).
b) I check if it is true that those days when the open is "close" to MP, it remains close to it. For that:
b1) I selected those days when price open at 1% of the MP or less ( \[ABS(open\_MP)<1%\]). That happens 20% of the fridays (that is not very encouraging about the role of the MP on the price action during the week). And the result are: 57% of these fridays, the price ends at a distance larger than 1% of the price respect the MP. Slightly worse than flipping a coin. Actually, in average (average(DIF\_close\_open\[ABS(open\_MP)<1%\] ), the price tends to increase its distance to MP in 1.3% of the price! That is logic if MP is not providing any stickness to the price, as volatility tends to move the price away from the opening.
b2) I repeated the same for a threshold of the 2% (\[ABS(open\_MP)<2%\]), and I got similar results. That happens 34% of the fridays. And the result are: 31% of these fridays, the price ends at a distance larger than 2% of the price respect the MP. Significantly better than flipping a coin, but still, that is just for 31% of the fridays, and in average (average(DIF\_close\_open\[ABS(open\_MP)<2%\] ), the price tends to increase its distance to MP in 1% (so even ending within 2% of the MP, the prices tends to move away from it more frequently than going toward it).
In general, I cannot support the idea that MP attracts the price in the case of GME during fridays. it is true that in different situations (high volume vs low volume, may be different, but the data is just too scarce to get any significant results).
In conclusion: **OP is right** and I thank him for fixing my perception on this topic.
If someone wants my calculations, I did them on a spreadsheet (not very fancy, but effective) and I may share it.
Cheers!

Lynas Rare Earths, like MP Materials is getting a lot of attention from a geopolitical view point as tensions with China seem to be on-going. Some say these metals are considered strategic / hard assets. Any thoughts?

Well many people in reddit all knew about this too. The guy who recommended MP here before it went up; he also recommended this too. I got in… but it was not moving much and yesterday news came out indicating he is reconsidering the loan that was given during Biden admin for LAC. Stock went down 8-10% and of course I thought it might be negative too and sold all. It skyrocketed few hours later… so yeah I among many others who didnt know about the actual deal; got tricked by manipulation

In hindsight the TACO admin equity stake wasnt unusual, esp after MP Materials. Thacker Pass is possibly the worlds largest lithium deposit.

Yes, looks to be following in the footsteps of MP Materials but you know what they say? Everything is bigger in Texas. I got in at $11 and bought more at $18 today. Let's see where we're at in a few years.

Thanks for this comment, it's good... let me unpack this.
1. the cluster around 0 isnt evidence of a pull, it's just where the price opens... and it makes sense it would open around max pain (0,0) because thats how 0DTE options liquidity flows... near the spot, and that affects the max pain calculation - not the other way around.
2. The scatter, and the accompanying statistics don't show convergence, nor does the move from monday open to friday close.. it just shows noise.
1. In fact, in the comments, there was someone that asked to look at wednesday to friday move relative to max pain - i ran it and provided GME... interesting thing there (takeaway is it works the opposite MP theorists would expect - statistically... for GME only)
2. comment here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1noxruj/comment/nfwl482/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1noxruj/comment/nfwl482/)
3. You don't want to delete data that helps to show the whole picture. the outliers (except in extreme cases) are an important part of the test... if there was any real pinning pressure, outliers would be showing price snaps. they don't. the plot shows that some move toward MP, some don't, and the data analysis confirms that as well.
4. Pinning through max pain is a myth, and has been proven with hard data here... the mechanics of hedging and dehedging can sometimes be observed to be pinning , but its not some nefarious scheme, and its not a reliable metric for trading (is what the data tells me)
feel free to grab the data i provided or roll your own if you want to dig deep into these topics/observations.

For real, been buying up PPTA for a while now.  No one talking about it at all.  Everyone is obsessed with MP and tech, but when the AI bubble pops I think critical minerals will retain value.  The federal government is clearly very interested in making sure PPTA succeeds.  I even had the privilege of visiting the site a couple years back and can say that the management is really competent and results-focused.  Strong local sentiment for the mine as well. 

I’m guessing you read the DD from u/Steve_Zissouu2 (https://stevezissouu.substack.com/)
I’m in a bunch of REE stocks (mainly Aus/Canadian), just be warned - mining is a fickle industry and fuckery abounds. I think MP is the only one with a price floor agreement so far, so just have a think about what happens if China lifts the critical minerals export ban and floods the market.
Not trying to talk you out of it btw just be prepared for volatility

MAJOR NEWS:
* OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank announced 5 new U.S. data center sites under Project Stargate, adding \~7 GW capacity and \~$400B investment over 3 years. OpenAI targets more than 20 GW of compute capacity as part of its $1 TRILLION AI infrastructure vision.
MAG7:
* AMZN - AWS and SAP are teaming up to bring SAP’s Sovereign Cloud capabilities to the new AWS European Sovereign Cloud, backed by Amazon’s planned €7.8B investment. Launching its first region in Germany by late 2025, the service will target governments and regulated industries with data residency and compliance needs. Initial offerings include SAP BTP and SAP Cloud ERP.
* AMZN - Wells Fargo upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $280, up from $245

MICRON EARNINGS:
* Micron sees FY26 capital expenditures higher than FY25 levels. Says expects to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI in the semiconductor industry. Says performance was supported by the ramp of high value data center products and broad-based DRAM pricing strength across end markets. Says AI driven demand is accelerating and industry DRAM supply is tight. Says customer inventory levels are healthy overall across end markets. Says expects calendar 2025 industry DRAM bit demand growth to be in the high-teens percentage range, somewhat higher than its previous outlook.

OTHER COMPANIES:
* ORCL - AIMS TO RAISE ABOUT $15 BILLION FROM CORPORATE BOND SALE
* TETHER - Tether is reportedly in early talks to raise up to $20B in fresh equity, a deal that could value the stablecoin giant near $500B; putting it alongside OpenAI and SpaceX in private market worth.
* LAC - TRUMP OFFICIALS SEEK EQUITY STAKE IN LITHIUM AMERICAS AS PART OF RENEGOTIATION OF $2.26 BILLION LOAN FOR THACKER PASS LITHIUM PROJECT, TWO SOURCES TELL REUTERS
* Mercedes is replacing CTO Markus Schäfer on Dec. 1, with production chief Jörg Burzer stepping in. AMG and Maybach boss Michael Schiebe will take Burzer’s role and join the board, tightening CEO Ola Källenius’ grip as the company pushes deeper cost cuts.
* ADM - said it will fold its 11 U.S. feed mills into a joint venture with Alltech as part of a broader $500M–$700M cost-cutting push. Alltech will hold the majority stake, contributing 18 U.S. and 15 Canadian mills, while ADM retains premix and additive businesses. The JV is set to launch in Q1 2026
* GM - UBS upgrades to buy from neutral, raises PT to 81 from 56. We upgrade GM to Buy. Our 2026/2027 EPS are 35% and 42% above consensus, driven by our view that GM North America margins can return to their existing target 8–10% range. Consensus has these margins in the 6–6.5% range over the coming years. While tariffs have added costs that GM will not pass through to the consumer, we believe GM has a number of levers at their disposal to offset the headwind.
* ADBE - Morgan Stnaley downgrades to equal weight from overweight, lowers pt to 450 from 520. ility for the company to successfully innovate on, deliver, and eventually monetize Generative AI functionality across the customer base, leading to an inflection in Digital Media annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth to the mid-to-high teens. Since that upgrade, we have seen the Digital Media ARR growth directionality diverge from the pace and quality of innovation being embedded within the product portfolio, leading us to the following conclusions: 1) Direct Generative AI monetization has lagged initial investor (and our) expectations, explained by Adobe's propensity to foster ubiquity and broad adoption of the technology ahead of monetization; and 2) there is relative uncertainty in a sizable portion of the Adobe ARR base where we lack confidence in Generative AI advancements being a net positive.
* NOW - Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight, raises PT to 1250 from 1040. ServiceNow's overall business fundamentals have remained sound despite a more volatile backdrop, delivering 1) subscription revenue growth of \~20% (constant currency), 2) high-20% to low-30% operating margin, and 3) solid free cash flow growth with current FY guidance implying low-20% growth, all while steadily ramping investment to support customers as they work to enable new GenAI functionalities. BABA - Cloud just announced a collaboration with NVIDIA on “Physical AI,” covering data synthesis, model training, simulation reinforcement learning, and model verification, per Sci-Tech Innovation Board Daily at the 2025 Alibaba Cloud Conference.
* BABA - CLOUD has officially launched Qwen3-Max, its largest large-language model yet with more than 1 trillion parameters.
* Other Chinese AI names including VNET an GDS are up on this news.
* MP - Materials CEO James Litinsky says the $400M Pentagon investment won’t be easily replicated, as its fully integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain was key to securing the deal. He believes Pentagon backing will be limited to firms with similar end-to-end capabilities.
* Bloom is down as they are cut from market perform to udnerperform at Jefferies, price target of 31.
* AXON - Up as Needham upgrades to outperform, with price target of 870.
* IREN initiated with a Buy at Arete PT $78
* CIFR - Arete initiated coverage of Cipher Mining with a Buy rating and $24 price target.
* Cifr is currently up on the following news: OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank announced 5 new U.S. data center sites under Project Stargate, adding \~7 GW capacity and \~$400B investment over 3 years.

Dass der Markt alle soliden Meinungen bereits eingepreist hat ist ein gefährlicher Irrglaube. Es gibt durchaus Trades bei denen dem Markt noch nicht alle Informationen bekannt sind und die er deswegen auch nicht einpreisen konnte. Ich persönlich sehe das hauptsächlich bei kleinen Aktien - auch deswegen weil die größeren Player hier nicht einfach reinkommen können, ein "weg"-arbitrieren fällt dadurch schwer.

Beispiele aus der Vergangenheit sind MP Materials, Rheinmetall, Friedrich Vorwerck.
Wenn der Markt alle Informationen sofort einpreisen würde wäre die Rheinmetall Aktie sofort um 300% gestiegen und hätte dafür nicht \~1 Jahr gebraucht.

Was man denke ich sagen kann ist, dass es für Privatanleger schwierig bis unmöglich ist, den Markt bei vertretbarem Risiko nach Kosten und Steuern zu schlagen.