IWM
iShares Russell 2000 ETF
stockNYSEETF

IWM

Always all big companies have 2-3 years production roadmap. So earnings of $NVDA expected strong, next few years. As 90% GPU dominance of NVDA, it keep selling next 2 years, hard for any companies to catch Last 50 years, 24 midterms, market spike 10-20% in 6 months. $QQQ $SPY $IWM spike next 3-6 months easy Market digested many chaos news before & move on. Too many crying babies scare others. https://preview.redd.it/ra2xljvebm1i1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2f7af07edf437cec7b1e3f663c4044437786801

Great job. Keep it up! What dte are you doing on these IWM plays and is ATM most of time?

crypto crash like this means IWM smol cap 🧢 futes probably circuit break tomorrow

AI come to such a stage, it’s hard to stop. AI infrastructure is beyond one-man show Look how much revenue last 8 quarters of $NVDA Same time look how much spending plan of BigTech next few years. quarter over quarter $MSFT $META $AMZN $GOOG $ANT $SPCX OpenAI, $GEV $SMH $QQQ $SPY$IWM all go up, all bad news behind $NVDA last quarter revenue $96.2 Billion https://preview.redd.it/p3vv1khmoh1i1.png?width=791&format=png&auto=webp&s=a39ed5413c21f57da1b14d0b9a045bc65b6b45c6

Trulieve has been added to the FTSE Russell index, as a preliminary process before being added to the Russell 3000 on its reconstitution in December: https://x.com/TheDalesReport/status/2121366892200013896?a=uWoa8BqgeXlBc53A_YQ&s=19 Forced buying from the indices should start in December. Hopefully this should get us some good relief pump, I want to let go of MSOS already and stick to Trulieve as I'm not sure that S3 will actually go out way...At least not anytime soon. As a side note, IWM will have even more sway on these stocks now.

STO brokenwing IC IWM k=240/260/277/278 35dte $2.00 STO brokenwing IC TSM k=330/360/405/410 28 dte $5.59 close itmCC MS 16 dit (p/l = +$105) open itmCC XOM 28 dte k=160 BTC XLF call sto ccs NVDA k=167.5/170 (to patch itm pcs k=167.5/160) curse jensen

Why would IWM recover so much. Crazy as shit.

"Which momentum ETF?" comes up here all the time, and lately the answer is almost always SPMO. I wanted to know two things. First, how different are the momentum ETFs really: what they buy, how often they trade, what they hold today. Second, does the recent winner say anything about the next five years? For the second question I focus on SPMO and MTUM, the two with the longest histories (testfol.io's SPMOSIM and MTUMSIM, back to June 1994, compared with SPY). For the first, I read the index methodologies and Morningstar's portfolio data for SPMO, MTUM, FDMO, JMOM, PDP, VFMO, QMOM and FMTM. **TL;DR** * Over 32 years, MTUM's index came out slightly *ahead* (13.1% vs 12.8% a year). The leader flipped many times, with multi-year stretches of 5–10 points a year either way. * SPMO's lead since 2021 is real and has held under both versions of MTUM's index. It comes from SPMO's design (concentrated, cap-weighted, few constraints) in a market led by a handful of mega-caps. * The 8 funds fall into two families: large-cap and cap-weighted (SPMO, MTUM, FDMO, JMOM) vs smaller and equal-weight (VFMO, PDP, QMOM). FMTM behaves like neither. * SPMO and MTUM are the same bet with different calendars. Splitting between them avoids betting on one rebalance schedule. For real diversification inside momentum, look at the other family. # 1. Growth of $10k [Growth of $10k, SPMO vs MTUM vs SPY, 1994–2026](https://preview.redd.it/f2vcz85dzf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=24fff32bdb6365c102585a750565ff094a2f8427) |Jun 1994 – Nov 2026|CAGR|Volatility|Sharpe (rf=0)|Max drawdown| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |SPMO|12.8%|20.9%|0.68|−62%| |MTUM|13.1%|20.5%|0.70|−56%| |SPY|11.0%|18.8%|0.65|−55%| Both beat SPY by about 2 points a year over the long run. Between the two of them, there is no clear winner. # 2. Leadership rotates [Rolling 5-year return, SPMO minus MTUM](https://preview.redd.it/ib2gud2ezf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=92ceee6038e06ea4dc3306f30c07bf8a1c02183a) Each point is the 5-year annualized return of SPMO minus MTUM. **MTUM was ahead in 64% of all 5-year windows.** SPMO is ahead today by about 8 points a year, close to its record. The previous record (+5.7 in 2000) was followed by about eight years of MTUM leading, by up to 10 points a year. [Calendar-year return, SPMO minus MTUM](https://preview.redd.it/a54cnezezf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bb3ec5242cb54e38e6eb82fdab778cf81936f5d) By calendar year: SPMO won 15, MTUM won 17. SPMO has won every year since 2021 (+9, +8, +8, +13, +4, +2 points). |Period|SPMO|MTUM|SPY| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |1994–2004|13.4%|**16.3%**|11.4%| |2005–2014|8.1%|**8.9%**|7.6%| |Oct 2015 – today (both live)|**17.7%**|14.5%|14.6%| |Last 12 months|12.5%|10.9%|12.0%| # 3. How the recipes differ Every momentum ETF buys what went up over the last 6–12 months. They differ in five choices: which signal, which window, how many names and how they're weighted, how often the basket is refreshed, and what constraints apply. # What they look at [Look-back windows of each momentum ETF](https://preview.redd.it/18un231gzf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9d567d9433e578efd1f6216155cf0d2640e193a) * **Most skip the last month.** Over one month, stock prices tend to reverse, so the classic signal is "12-1": the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. The JMOM and FMTM descriptions I found don't mention a skip. * **Dividing by volatility** (SPMO, MTUM, FDMO, JMOM) favors steady climbers over lottery tickets. MTUM uses **three years** of volatility, so a stock that was wild in 2024 is still penalized today. * **QMOM** uses the same 12-1 return but keeps only stocks whose gains came in many small steps (Gray & Vogel's "frog in the pan"). The idea: a jump on a single news day tends to reverse. * **FDMO** adds non-price data: earnings surprises and low short interest. * **FMTM** is the odd one out: it first screens for quality (profitability, liquidity; \~300 names) and then ranks on a **6-month** window. # When they trade [Rebalance calendar of each momentum ETF](https://preview.redd.it/z3uy8twgzf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=95ea2ffee6baf6a35a2cf86e7329c5d976ded46a) SPMO refreshes twice a year, MTUM four times (plus an off-cycle rebalance when market volatility spikes), and QMOM and FMTM monthly. It's a trade-off. A slow fund holds a stale signal for months; SPMO picked energy in September 2022 and held it through the tech rally of early 2023 (§5). A fast fund keeps up, but trades a lot. Morningstar's reported annual turnover: SPY 3%, SPMO 69%, MTUM 116%, QMOM 399%, FMTM 720%. # How concentrated [Concentration vs rebalance frequency](https://preview.redd.it/7yhk5mqhzf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=b13c809d9a391551a8921228ce64d625472604e2) * **SPMO is more concentrated than SPY itself**: top 10 ≈ 50% vs 37%. Weighting by market cap × score inside the S&P 500 amplifies the mega-caps that are also winning. * **MTUM and FDMO** sit near SPY's concentration. FDMO also resets sector weights to the market's at each review. * **JMOM** spreads across \~280 names (top 10 ≈ 19%): the most diluted of the index funds. * **VFMO, QMOM, FMTM, PDP** use equal weight, a modified weight, or an active manager. All of them lean toward mid and small caps. # What they actually hold Rules tell you what a fund *tries* to do. Morningstar's portfolio tab shows what it holds right now (holdings as of Nov 11–12, 2026). [Style boxes of each fund](https://preview.redd.it/2th5zlrizf1i1.png?width=1511&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed6ed3c00e7b588ab1bd14e445ab0e1685294225) * **SPMO, MTUM and FDMO are large-cap funds**, like SPY: 75–86% in large caps. * **PDP, QMOM and FMTM are mid-cap funds**: 46–53% in mid caps. **VFMO is closer to a small-cap fund**: 49% in small caps, more than any other here. * JMOM is in between: 56% large, 32% mid. [Sector weights of each fund](https://preview.redd.it/gx8kvkjkzf1i1.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=37cdb2a813c03327a2f029e0bba14170900b96ba) * **SPMO and MTUM hold the same sector bet**: 48–49% technology vs SPY's 37%. Where they differ is single names, not sectors. * **FMTM is the only fund underweight tech** (19%). After its November rebalance it holds 29% healthcare and 25% financials. Because it trades monthly, this picture can look different next month. * **QMOM has no financials** and leans on healthcare (30%), energy (19%) and materials (10%). * **FDMO** looks most like SPY sector by sector, as its sector-neutral rule intends. [Valuation and growth measures](https://preview.redd.it/p7qub4mlzf1i1.png?width=1832&format=png&auto=webp&s=880c9268cc1ef69daa464d31f51b32618c9f81d3) * **None of them is paying up today.** All eight trade below SPY's price/earnings (13.8–18.0 vs 18.6). * **The large-cap funds own the fast growers.** SPMO and MTUM expect 25% earnings growth vs SPY's 18%. * **FMTM looks more like a quality/value basket right now**: the lowest expected earnings growth (11%) and sales growth (3%), with a 1.25% dividend yield, above SPY's. * VFMO's past earnings growth is −13%. Its stocks are rising on price, not yet on reported earnings. |ETF|Universe|Signal|Holdings, weighting|Reviews|Expense ratio|CAGR Feb 2018 – Nov 2026|Tracking error vs SPY|Morningstar| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |SPY|S&P 500|—|500, cap|—|0.09%|14.0%|—|★★★★ Gold| |SPMO|S&P 500|12-1 ÷ vol|\~100, cap × score, cap 9% or 3×|2/yr (Mar, Sep)|0.13%|17.3%|9.8%|★★★★★ Silver| |MTUM|MSCI USA, large + mid|12-1 and 6-1, ÷ 3-yr vol|125, cap × score, cap 5%, turnover ≤ 30%|4/yr (Feb, May, Aug, Nov) + off-cycle|0.15%|12.4%|11.0%|★★★ Silver| |FDMO|1,000 largest|12-1, ÷ vol, earnings surprise, short interest|\~130, cap × score, sector-neutral|4/yr|0.15%|13.3%|6.5%|★★★★ Gold| |JMOM|Russell 1000|12-month ÷ 12-month vol|\~280, cap-weighted|4/yr|0.12%|14.5%|6.3%|★★★★ Bronze| |PDP|\~3,000 stocks|point & figure relative strength|\~100, modified cap|4/yr|0.62%|10.9%|10.6%|★★ (no medal)| |VFMO|all sizes (Russell 3000 benchmark)|12-1, 7-1, 1-year alpha (active, quant)|\~700, active|continuous|0.13%|13.3%|11.2%|★★★★ Gold| |QMOM|\~1,500 largest|12-1, smooth climbs only|\~50, equal|12/yr|0.28%|10.6%|18.0%|★★★★ Silver| |FMTM|\~300 after a quality screen|6-month + consistency (active)|30–50, equal|12/yr|0.45%|n/a (Mar 2025)|\~14.5%|no stars yet, Neutral| **The strongest case for SPMO** is that momentum is "let the winners run", and SPMO interferes less: it can hold 9% in one name, turn over the whole basket at a review, and only measures volatility over the signal window. MTUM caps names at 5%, can only replace 30% of the basket per review, and penalizes stocks that were volatile up to three years ago. In a market led by a few mega-caps, those constraints cost return. **The case for MTUM** is the mirror image: less single-name concentration (top 10: 35% vs SPMO's 50%; the tech weight is about the same, 48–49%), more frequent reviews, and a crash trigger. Which side wins depends on the regime, and §2 shows the regime changes. # Who resembles whom [Correlation of returns relative to SPY](https://preview.redd.it/wjcru7lmzf1i1.png?width=1230&format=png&auto=webp&s=008fdbdee974adab5e82b47375d1a040f963199a) Strip out the market (each fund's weekly return minus SPY's) and two families appear: * **Large-cap, cap-weighted: SPMO, MTUM, FDMO, JMOM.** SPMO and MTUM are the closest pair of all (0.91). FDMO and JMOM are MTUM's nearest neighbors (0.83–0.84). Owning two of these is mostly owning the same bet twice. * **Smaller and equal-weight: VFMO, PDP, QMOM** (0.75–0.84 among themselves). Their excess returns also track small caps vs SPY (IWM − SPY: 0.36–0.62), so part of what they deliver is a size tilt, not only momentum. (VFMO gets called "VTI with a higher fee". The data disagrees: since 2021 its correlation with VTI is 0.86, and it deviates \~11% a year, as much as SPMO.) * **FMTM is its own thing.** It has 0.15 correlation with SPMO, and its closest neighbor is PDP (0.63). MTUM, equal-weight (RSP) and quality (QUAL) together explain only \~20% of its excess return. The rest comes from its own stock picks in a 30–50 name basket. The chart covers FMTM's whole life (86 weeks). Over Feb 2018 – Nov 2026, without FMTM, the same two families show up (SPMO–MTUM 0.77, VFMO–QMOM 0.82, SPMO–QMOM 0.44). # 4. The MTUM you buy today is not the MTUM in the 32-year chart The fund switched to the "SR Variant" index in December 2020, but per MSCI's own changelog, that index **followed the standard MSCI USA Momentum Index until February 2024**. The current rules (125 names, quarterly, 30% turnover cap, no staggering) took effect at the February 2024 review. Before that it was semi-annual (May / Nov). So most of MTUM's long history above is the old design. Did the new constraints cause MTUM's lag? Not on their own: it lagged just as much before they existed. |Period|SPMO|MTUM|SPY| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Dec 2020 – Feb 2024 (old rules)|14.5%|6.2%|12.3%| |Mar 2024 – Nov 2026 (current rules)|22.8%|16.8%|16.9%| # 5. Concentration and rebalance timing cut both ways [Drawdowns from peak](https://preview.redd.it/mq25s8opzf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4836a5d97e42c6487594cad1444dcd96c6872f6) The mechanism behind SPMO's recent run is the same one that hurt it in 2000–2002. It piles into whatever the biggest winners are; in 1999 those were the dot-com leaders. The SPMO index fell 62% and took **13 years** (2000–2013) to regain its peak. MTUM's index took 5.4 years and SPY 6.6. Rebalance dates matter too. At the September 2022 review, SPMO rotated into energy and value stocks that had led 2022. It finished 2022 at −10.5% (SPY −18.2%) and then lagged the tech-led 2023 recovery: 17.6% vs SPY's 26.2%. A fund with different review dates would have made different bets in that window. SPMO + MTUM gives you six reviews a year instead of two. # 6. 2026: when momentum crashes, they all crash [2026 momentum crashes, fall from June high](https://preview.redd.it/2beg4gjqzf1i1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f5d0cb41b81bc8b23ce056f0dded71e6fe3ac92) |Fall from June 2026 high|late Jul|early Nov| |:-|:-|:-| |MTUM|−18%|−27%| |SPMO|−16%|−24%| |VFMO|−14%|−20%| |FMTM|−15%|−16%| |GARP (not momentum: quality growth)|−8%|−13%| |SPY|−4%|−3%| Methodology differences didn't save anyone. MTUM's extra constraints didn't make it safer either: it fell the most both times. # 7. So which one? **Neither is "the better momentum ETF".** Each has had decade-long stretches as the winner, and the data doesn't let you pick the next one. The simplest thing that held up in every period is owning both: |Jun 1994 – Nov 2026|CAGR|Max drawdown|Worst 5 years (per year)|5-year windows behind SPY| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |SPMO|12.8%|−62%|−10.8%|33%| |MTUM|13.1%|−56%|−5.2%|25%| |**50/50, rebalanced yearly**|**13.0%**|**−54%**|−6.9%|**24%**| The blend gave up almost nothing in return, had the smallest drawdown, and was never the worse of the two in any 5-year window. Since 2015 it trails SPMO (16.1% vs 17.7%), which is the price of not knowing in advance. What I'd suggest, depending on what you want: * **Default momentum sleeve: 50% SPMO / 50% MTUM.** Same factor, different recipes, six rebalance dates a year instead of two. Rebalance once a year, ideally with new contributions. * **You want momentum with less deviation from the index: FDMO or JMOM.** They track SPY much more closely (tracking error \~6%), so expect a smaller edge in both directions. * **You want to try FMTM: keep it a minority slice** (say, a quarter of the momentum sleeve). On design alone it's the best diversifier here: a quality screen, a different window, equal weight and monthly trading, and 0.15 correlation with SPMO. The costs: a 0.45% fee, a 30–50 stock basket whose results depend mostly on its own picks, and a 6-month signal, while most of the research is on 12-1. Twenty months isn't enough to separate skill from luck. * **Think twice about** QMOM if you can't sit through 27% volatility and a −39% drawdown, and about PDP at 0.62%. * **Momentum is a sleeve, not a portfolio.** Every momentum fund fell 14–27% in 2026 while SPY barely moved. If you want something that zigs when momentum zags, value is the classic partner (Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen, *Value and Momentum Everywhere*). In my data, AVLV/AVUV's returns relative to SPY have \~0 to slightly negative correlation with SPMO/MTUM's. Not financial advice, just what the numbers say. # Caveats * **Back-test vs live.** Before each launch date (MTUM Apr 2013, SPMO Oct 2015), the SIM series are the indexes' back-tested histories, built by the index providers after the fact. MTUM's history is also mostly the pre-2024 index design (§4). * **Fees.** SPMOSIM and SPYSIM don't deduct fees, so I subtracted 0.13% and 0.0945% a year. MTUMSIM matches the real MTUM after launch; I subtracted 0.15% a year before that. * No taxes, no trading costs beyond the expense ratio. Past returns, especially 5-year ones, are a weak guide to the next five. Sources: [MSCI USA Momentum SR Variant methodology (Aug 2024)](https://www.msci.com/indexes/documents/methodology/3_MSCI_USA_Momentum_SR_Variant_Index_20240820.pdf), [MSCI Momentum Indexes methodology](https://www.msci.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_Momentum_Indexes_Methodology_Aug2021.pdf), [S&P momentum practitioner's guide](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/education/education-momentum-a-practioners-guide.pdf), [Vanguard VFMO fact sheet](https://fund-docs.vanguard.com/F4418.pdf), [Alpha Architect QMOM process](https://funds.alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/compliance/etf/education/process_quantmomentum.pdf), [Fidelity factor index methodology](https://fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/brokerage/factor-income-exposures-methodology.pdf), [etf.com on FMTM](https://www.etf.com/sections/podcasts/behind-ticker-fmtm-marketdesk). Portfolio data, stars and medals: Morningstar ETF portfolio pages (e.g. [SPMO](https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spmo/portfolio)), read Nov 13 2026. Happy to share the script if anyone wants to rerun it with other tickers.

If I ever meet someone that does anything that has to do with IWM ETF I feel like I am gonna end in jail

Just once I would like to see dip on IWM not getting scooped up. Just once to open down and stay down

IWM cliff diving but no water.

IWM HH HL. Might still have some play left...

Every Friday I'm tempted to sell a put that expires that day with leftover cash. So this morning I checked what's actually out there. 107 puts expiring today across 20 big names, including SPY, QQQ and IWM, all with spreads tight enough to fill. Only 2 had strikes outside today's expected move. 49 paid $40 or more per contract. Zero did both. So on the last day, the premium you can actually collect is almost always sitting right where the stock is expected to land. You're not getting paid to be safe, you're getting paid to be close. That's not a reason to never do it. It's a reason to size it small and know that the money comes from the risk, not from the clock.

IWM drilling. The world is healing.

Depends on the days, account size and my trading plan/strategy. For entries, I look at the trend based on a few of my rules using some indicators indicators on the chart like EMAs, VWAP among others, simple option strategy with long calls/calls on ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc and targeting $5-15 profit per contract. Although, I am greedy in most days as you see in the posts. Then, I scale the number of contracts as my profit grows.