ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
stock NYSE

All the new ICE agents: “My life for Hire!”

It all shows the population decline - ICE grabbing people, people self-deporting, and a deterrence to immigration into the USA.
At the moment unemployment remains low and declined in July despite the decline in payrolls. Soon the job loss multiplier effect will cause unemployment to start to increase as more stores close, more houses sit vacant, hospital beds sit vacant, and there are fewer weddings and births.

I believe that job losses are caused by the decline in the population. I guess about 50,000 people are removed by ICE per month as of July of 2026. And every month possibly hundreds of thousands maybe self-deporting, and hundreds of thousands maybe deterred from coming to the US.
This loss of population causes a job loss multiplier effect. When one person isn't working, there is less spent on food, rent, transportation, etc. Yesterday I noticed a lot of extra items stacked in the lanes at the grocery store. So grocery stores maybe laying off workers and more people lose jobs. Home construction will probably slow more if more housing units are vacant.
It's very clear that today's job report shows unemployment declining even though payrolls have declined [fewer jobs].
So the labor shortage still shows, and we will probably have stagflation until we start seeing the unemployment rate going up and wages declining - not good for more people.

Wütende Völkerfreundschaftsgeräusche 🇩🇪😤🇫🇷 $A0F7BK
**Die Deutsche Bahn (DB) hat den direkt zwischen Berlin und Paris fahrenden ICE vorerst aus ihrem Fahrplan genommen. "Grund dafür sind technische Probleme mit dem europäischen Zugsicherungssystem der Firma Alstom", wie ein Bahnsprecher der Nachrichtenagentur AFP bestätigte** – [Tagesschau](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-bahn-ice-berlin-paris-gestrichen-100.html)
➡️ Jetzt muss u/sir-karlheinz doch wieder auf Ketten nach Paris fahren 😕

> Are you willing to do the same with immigration crackdowns being a driver of unemployment? You completely pulled that out of your ass.
>If we're talking doing research, deportations in the current administration are about level with where they were pre-pandemic and not close to where they were in the late-00's/early-10's when unemployment was dropping consistently. Immigration crackdowns are not a driver in the unemployment rate, no matter how you slice it.
It's true that deportations are not much higher than historically, but what is changing is people are leaving voluntarily or choosing not to come to America. The horror stories about ICE in the news are having a real impact.
The other factor is that people in the country illegally are afraid to work, because there's a lot more news of workplace crackdowns on construction sites and other workplaces often associated with undocumented labor.
See this article from a progressive think tank:
https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release-trumps-immigration-crackdown-is-weakening-americas-labor-market/
>In its jobs report [From March 2026], the Bureau of Labor Statistics incorporated new population adjustments to its household survey, starting in February, that reflect a dramatic drop in immigration. Net international migration fell from 2.7 million in July 2024 to 1.3 million in June 2025 following a wave of administration policies that expanded enforcement, restricted work visas, ended Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for many immigrants, and implemented new travel bans and immigration restrictions.

Apparently something like 93% of their fleet is from 2025/2026 and they're mostly ICE cars so they're straightening out it seems? It's interesting how spectacularly the EV transition failed though.

They sell almost real-time visibility of movements of immigrants to ICE, their co-founder Peter Thiel is actively trying to dismantle democracy while pushing a techno monarchy of sorts, their comically villainous CEO is pretty open about pushing autonomous weaponry as fast and hard as possible while showing a disregard for guardrails.

He has a good plan. Their setup with 95% new ICE vehicles. What could go wrong?

Deep Value Setup

.08 P/S
28% Short Interest
Revenues grew 10% Q2
2027 $1B EBITDA target

94% of the fleet is now 2025/2026 ICE vehicles. Youngest fleet in a dozen years.
This could stabilize depreciation, hitting their target of 302$ depreciation per unit.

Giving them runway for 2026-2027 to build a cash war chest for the 2028-2030 debt wall of \~6b debt.

1B EBITDA 2027
\- corporate interest (-500m)
\-corporate capex (-100m)
\-historical fleet maintenance (-295m) now 0 since new fleet
\-simulated FCF 400m
Current market cap 811m
at $2.28 share price
356m shares outstanding
ASSUME 6X p/FCF multiple
400m\*6=2,400 m
Divided by 356m =6.74 Share price

Or this jahn short squeezes
Could go bankrupt too !
My dad did use hertz for his rental car so that’s bullish. Do your own DD

BARAK RAVID ON THIN ICE FOR DOING SO MUCH LYING

How does Musk expect to staff a chip fab? Semiconductor engineers are extremely well paid and already scarce—and plenty of people actively avoid working for Musk. What's his plan? Ask Trump to deploy ICE to round up TSMC and Samsung workers in Arizona and Texas and force them to work for him?

ICE?

We need to open the strait of hormzlo so we can go back to focusing on the important issues: how to serve Israel, no men in women's sports, no taxes on tips, give ICE complete immunity, redact the Epstein files, take greenland, take Canada, take cuba etc

Almost everyone in the world will say american ICE cars suck too, so there goes tour argument. The europeans and japanese are the king of ice.

Mango is busy posting ICE spiderman edits, he can't work on the deal rn. And his buddies Pissrael are bombing Lebanon and Gaza whenever we get close to an idea of a framework of a deal. But don't worry, we already won and they're begging for a deal!

their EV strategy failed and they are back to ICE cars, outlook better than expected

I already called the ICE they will remain Alligator Alcatraz for the rest of the year

That comes with experience.
During [Dot.com](http://Dot.com) era the stock market tanked 3 years in a row. Each year lost at least 1/3 of previous total. That is index like Voo not just some stocks. There were many companies that just evaporated over night. One dot com was selling animal foods and shipped dry food by carrier. That went out of business! One just has so much patience for a recovery. The S&P index took 7 years to recover not 1 or 2 years as mentioned. If one bought INTEL at the peak in 2000 that took until this April 2026 to recover after a recent govt invest and offer $11.1b grant. 26 years to be exact! Microsoft took 16 years to break even and so on. There were 2010 Great Recession all investors took a big toll on all stocks. Covid (bailed out by govt) and Trump 1.0 came on board Wall Street saw a 3-month short bloody market also.
The strategy is sometimes sitting on cash or CD if all opportunities do not present. During 2009 some banks had restriction not let customer to take out much cash. A few got so worried they slept with cash under their mattress while losing their home from subprime mortgage disaster. So they lost everything they had.
What has worked for me is anticipate what is coming up and prepare for it. Rather than losing 1/3 total each year mentioned early people put into bond. On annuity people say it is a rip off I did quite well. Now I have tax free municipal bonds. I put small blocks of bonds some are even insured.
This is not saying I do not invest in Ai stocks. Having predicted a correction moment was coming I took profit and put into safer bond. Rest I have some waiting for a recovery. I also knew Trump 2.0 was a big spender I got in early enough with govt contractor stocks. There are jail stocks (ICE) that prospered also.
On precious metals, people said over and over they were worthless. Guess what? $4,293 a Troy oz is not the same as $350 from before. That goes with oil or energy stocks. Trump said the conflict was over . I have to pay $5.69 for 87 grade gas still? I have loaded crude oil stocks not imported from Middle East. Had I listened to our commander in chief I would have missed this opportunity bought more AI stock and lose them.
In summery, a strategy like diversification having a little into mid cap, small cap, different industries, commodity and overseas equity and some bond and fixed income reduce "beta" appreciably. If one does not have time to research companies etf is the way to go.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kashkari keeps talking hikes that some more ICE agents are going to show up in near the fed in Minneapolis.

I wanted to see how well Trefis Valuations worked so I created 2 portfolios : one for Undervalued and one for Overvalued.
I started this on 7/7/26 with a hypothetical 100k portfolio each. The technical criteria for the undervalued criteria was to buy when the price crossed above the 25 day moving average. The Holdings were: MDT, SAP, CRM, CMCSA, ADBE, ISRG, ABT, META, AMZN, TM, TMUS, ICE. A couple of the holdings were sold and then rebought when they went back above the 25 day moving average.
Value for this portfolio of 8/5/26 @ 9am PT: up 6.60%
The technical criteria for the overvalued was to short if the price was below the 25 day moving average. The Holdings were: TXN, NOK, CAT, GS, MU, GLW, TSLA, SPCX, INTC, AMD, AMAT.
Value for this shorted portfolio as of 8/5/26 @ 9am PT: up 8.67%
I will update the value of each portfolio roughly every week.