ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
stockNYSE

GuMo FAB, berichte aus einem diesmal pünktlichen ICE. Man merkt, dass die Züge wegen hoher Sprittpreise voll von Leuten sind, die null Plan von Bahnverkehr haben. Neulich beim Ausstieg stand ein Mädel im Gang zwischen Sitzreihen in der Mitte des Wagens. Aufgrund ihres beachtlichen Rucksacks war ein kontaktloses Vorbeischleichen nicht möglich. Also stoppte ich dahinter und rätselte, wieso es nicht zur Tür geht. Als der Zug fast ankam und schon abgebremst hat, holte es vom Gepäckregal daneben einen zusammengeklappten City-Roller. Legte ihn auf den Boden, kniete sich vor und begann, ihn auszuklappen. Was nicht auf Anhieb klappen wollte und für ein diffuses Unsicherheitsgefühl sorgte, ob man überhaupt rechtzeitig zum Ausgang schafft.

https://preview.redd.it/i5rlb5me5qwh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bcd3d59c623901a09db6713651ca43e415ae4ec *21 October 2026 · XAUUSD · Bearish setup · Chart snapshots: 00:23–00:37, Europe/Berlin* Gold has already suffered a substantial decline, yet the recovery still looks weak. My focus is on the repeated rejection around **$4,145** and whether sellers can use that area to push price back towards the recent lows. The short idea combines that price structure with a rebuilding speculative dollar position, persistent long exposure in gold futures and an inflation backdrop that could keep US monetary policy restrictive. The daily snapshot shows gold near $4,130 after a high around $5,602, a decline of approximately 26%. A large fall can produce sharp rebounds. For this setup, the useful question is whether those rebounds can recover lost levels and hold them. https://preview.redd.it/foqeqrig5qwh1.png?width=1495&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ba03a465f025b73c7f63ee36d10b12230b0e6ec The four-hour chart shows successive attempts to recover within a damaged structure. Price has returned to the lower part of that range, and the area around $4,145 continues to matter. The marked midpoint at approximately $4,145.41 sits close to the horizontal resistance and the short reference in the drawing. I am looking for that area to remain a ceiling, followed by renewed pressure on support. # The dollar positioning comparison with 2021–2022 https://preview.redd.it/ie5vxq4j5qwh1.png?width=1495&format=png&auto=webp&s=237061671e7b4dc539395c8327ab4de1c66939ef The sequence highlighted in the chart resembles the 2021–2022 comparison: a prolonged reduction in non-commercial dollar exposure, followed by renewed rebuilding, with commercials moving in the opposite direction. I see that as a useful comparison for the pressure gold could face if the dollar strengthens again. The COT overlay is a **USD Index series displayed beneath the gold price**. Its latest values match the ICE USD Index Legacy futures-only report for 13 October: non-commercials were net long **12,919 contracts**, commercials net short **14,828**, and non-reportables net long **1,909**. Non-commercial net longs increased by **908 contracts** from the previous week. [CFTC USD Index report](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanybtsf.htm). That gives the comparison a clear role in the setup. Renewed speculative demand for the dollar could become a headwind for dollar-denominated gold. The resemblance alone does not establish that the 2022 price path will repeat, and the opposing commercial position partly reflects how the futures market balances. I still need price to confirm the proposed dollar headwind through continued weakness in gold's recovery. The line labelled “Retailtrader” in this snapshot also matches USD Index non-reportables. Its similarity to the marked May 2024 level therefore describes smaller-participant **dollar** positioning. It cannot establish how much gold retail accounts are holding. The latest dollar net long fell by 351 contracts, even as non-commercial dollar net longs increased. That divergence keeps the focus on how the groups respond from here. # Gold's own futures positioning remains long https://preview.redd.it/7zoqglwl5qwh1.png?width=1093&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7c3c0c49596af685badd1c6631f84bb987673e6 The separate Gold dashboard row matches **non-commercials**: 245,300 long contracts against 37,421 short, leaving a net long of 207,879. Their long share fell from approximately 87.50% to **86.76%**, a decline of **0.73 percentage points**. This share is long divided by long plus short, excluding spreading positions. Net longs fell by 2,456 contracts. [CFTC Gold report](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm). Gold non-reportables remained long as well: **50,731 longs against 16,079 shorts**, or 75.93% long on the same directional-gross basis. Their net long **increased by 460 contracts** to 34,652. They did not reduce it in this report. Non-reportables are a residual futures category, rather than a complete survey of retail accounts or an official classification of trend traders. [CFTC Gold report](https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm), [category definitions](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm). For comparison, calculations from the preserved CFTC 2024 archive put Gold non-reportables' long share between approximately **65.5% and 67.8%** across the four May 2024 reports. The current 75.9% is higher on that measure. The comparable net-position share of open interest is also higher. [CFTC historical Legacy futures-only archives](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm). That persistence is the part I find vulnerable. Gold has weakened considerably, while speculative futures positioning remains heavily tilted towards further upside. If support breaks again, some of that remaining exposure could be reduced. Positioning supplies a possible source of pressure; the rejection and subsequent price behaviour supply the timing. # Seasonal windows provide context https://preview.redd.it/4rdzax4o5qwh1.png?width=1495&format=png&auto=webp&s=424835fef3e28196b57c7ac5bbe6bc4ece94ee5f The seasonal charts draw my attention to the late-October and early-November window. In a market already struggling to recover, that is a period in which I am particularly interested in failed rallies and another move lower. The paths are mixed. The end-digit-six line becomes weaker later in the displayed window, while the broader and recent-year paths are firmer in places. The indicator labels the end-digit-six sample **n=2**, so it deserves limited weight. I would not treat the three lines as independent confirmations of a short. https://preview.redd.it/0qgp247s5qwh1.png?width=1495&format=png&auto=webp&s=316e9386d8924b12f0cdc04de1f60a835dab6f08 The second view provides another calendar perspective around the marked late-October to early-November period. Its role is to focus attention on the window. The trade still depends on the actual rejection, support behaviour and marked risk level; a seasonal path cannot override those conditions. # Rejection on the eight-hour chart and pressure in Asian hours https://preview.redd.it/sdb07mcu5qwh1.png?width=1495&format=png&auto=webp&s=27418d716b04d4abbb3dd761eaec296490372852 The circled eight-hour candle shows a push higher that failed to hold. Its upper wick and return towards the lower part of the range fit the selling pressure visible in the four-hour structure. Buyers have been able to test the area, but they have not established a sustained recovery through it. This is a reading of the candles; these spot-chart snapshots do not establish exchange-wide sell volume. https://preview.redd.it/ij9h0tiv5qwh1.png?width=1495&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f678a2f9247a197e45c464400a24762aeb0724d In my review of the last fourteen Asian-session windows, I flagged strong selling pressure in **nine**. The annotations cover Tokyo and the surrounding Asian hours, including Sydney. The repeated failure to hold early recoveries adds to my concern that rallies are attracting sellers. This is a recent visual sample, not a measured win rate for selling every Tokyo open. # Inflation leaves the Fed with an uncomfortable choice https://preview.redd.it/1b66n6uw5qwh1.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a19bc89651d500c54eb194abb046f8532a75252 The macroeconomic tension is the same one discussed in my [S&P 500 research](https://melvinmarkets.com/analysis/s-p-500-a-bear-market-in-stages--economic-research-sp500-bear-market-20261019): parts of activity and employment are weakening while inflation is becoming harder to ignore. September payrolls rose by only **29,000**, with unemployment at **4.2%**. Headline CPI accelerated from **3.4% to 3.7% year on year**, while final-demand PPI reached **6.3%**. The dashboard also records several activity releases below its listed forecasts, although those consensus comparisons are separate from the official release figures. [BLS employment report](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm), [CPI release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm), [PPI release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_10152026.htm). My concern is that inflation could keep the Fed on hold at restrictive rates or prompt another hike despite weaker growth. The September decision already raised the target range to **3.75–4.00%**. Another hike remains my scenario, rather than an announced decision. [Federal Reserve statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm). For gold, the bearish channel depends on the response of real yields and the dollar. If restrictive policy supports both, it could add pressure to an already weak chart. Inflation itself can also support gold, and weaker growth can bring demand for protection or lower expected rates. Those competing influences are why I require price confirmation. [Chicago Fed research on gold's drivers](https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2021/464). # The marked trade plan |Reference|Marked level| |:-|:-| |Short reference|**4,144.714**| |Stop reference|**4,159.455**| |First support area|**4,073.560–4,066.535**| |Downside extension|**4,034.760**| |Main target|**3,986.552**| The original drawing provides the following references, in US dollars per troy ounce: At the exact marked entry, the distance to the stop is **$14.741** and the distance to the main target **$158.162**, approximately **10.73 units of gross reward per unit of risk**, before spread, slippage or financing. That arithmetic describes the drawing, not the probability of reaching its target. The snapshots already show price below the marked entry, so a later entry would have different risk and reward. The bearish case needs the recovery to remain capped around $4,145 and selling pressure to return at support. A break through the $4,073–4,067 area would bring the lower extension and the main target into focus. If price recovers through the rejection area and reaches the marked stop, this particular setup has failed. The longer-term macro view does not cancel that trade-level invalidation. My bias remains towards another leg lower while recoveries keep failing beneath resistance. The strongest evidence is the price response itself, supported by persistent gold longs and the possibility of renewed dollar strength. A sustained recovery, falling real yields or a weaker dollar would require that view to be reassessed. *Personal market commentary. Original charts and levels are preserved as supplied. COT figures are dated 13 October 2026; this article does not assert that an order was placed or a position was filled.* *You can find all my Trades @* [https://melvinmarkets.com/](https://melvinmarkets.com/)

over 500 "not being targeted" people have been wrongfully detained by ICE [https://projects.propublica.org/american-citizens-detained-dhs-civil-rights/](https://projects.propublica.org/american-citizens-detained-dhs-civil-rights/)

For real, Supreme Court literally gave ICE permission to racially profile, plus all the Anti-DEI propaganda

Do you think that just maybe part of the reason ICE is a POS agency is that they’re targeting people based on the color of their skin? Also curious what you’re smoking if you think they aren’t targeting people based on skin color

Because as much as ICE is a POS agency that needs to answer for its crimes, it gets tiring when people assume everyone with brown skin is somehow an illegal immigrant or being targeted.

We'll see if ICE bothers to check when they're breaking your car window. Bro so stupid, he doesn't understand hyperbole.

This year was horrible for me…. Everything went up and my check stays the same… At the same time, the Feds give billions to ICE. Give us that Money instead.

LET'S GOOOOOO BEER AND ICE CREAM FROM 711 FOR EVERYONE!! HAIL MARY SUCCESSFUL

There's long been concerns about Palantir being granted access to patient medical records in the UK and other countries. They also offer data-mining and predictive analysis tools that other organisations (insurance companies for example) might then be able to use to preemptively raise insurance costs on the off-chance of a future illness, even if you're currently healthy. Not done currently, but once they have this incredible amount of data, it's never going to be out of their hands. Their software's been used by ICE in the USA to facilitate their mass deportations and track people. They've developed tools deployed to police forces in the US which have baked-in systemic machine bias and unverified predictive features resulting in threats to impartial due process. They're heavily promoting Military AI and automated warfare toolsets, which have so far proven themselves to be unreliable at best, at worst [criminally](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/07/generative-ai-and-atrocity-denial-in-war) [flawed](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-iran-school-attack/). Removing the human from the loop in military context sets dangerous precedents and gives too many opportunities for what we call 'slopey shoulder syndrome' (nobody shoulders the ultimate responsibility). The cost of the contracts is also often exorbitant after an initial honeymoon period. I also have problems with Thiel and Karp's personal politics, approach to the defence sector and other lobbying work. They declare that Palantir is amoral, that their tools are 'neutral' and pass the buck on any kind of moral responsibility. Saying "oh we're just toolmakers" doesn't wash when their tools data share, form a platform for 'assisted opinion-forming' and sidestep all ethical concerns. The company just gives me the ick, more than most other military or private citizen surveillance companies (which I also don't invest in, as I feel like they're contributing to a massive gradual erosion of our civil liberties).

Grok bots are working well for me. Spacex reusable rockets are being used heavily and Star link is a massive leap in internet anywhere. Tesla isn’t a flop. Their cars are everywhere and it’s forced other companies to innovate instead of being dependent on old ICE tech. Most entrepreneurs “fail” at a lot of ideas. It’s how they can succeed quicker than most. Try it, doesn’t work, move on to what does. The Gigafactories are a massive undertaking on their own. Metal in, car out. And I know you don’t care, but the subterfuge behind twitter is something I’m glad was exposed. Call is toxic now but at least it’s in the open. I don’t think he’s a saint but I do think he’s responsible for a massive tech leap in human history that wouldn’t have happened if he didn’t exist.

Here are the most popular stocks by unique comment mentions from the past 24 hours: Ticker | Mentions | Price | Today ---|---|---|--: 🟢 PLS | 4 | $2.93 | 1.03% 🔴 BLS | 4 | $1.00 | -3.38% 🚀 IXR | 4 | $0.53 | 20.45% 🟢 WTC | 3 | $38.64 | 1.36% 🔴 ICE | 3 | $0.047 | -4.08% 🔴 VUL | 2 | $1.13 | -1.73% 🔴 A1M | 2 | $0.77 | -2.53% 🔴 BC8 | 2 | $0.71 | -2.07% 🔴 DRO | 2 | $1.49 | -2.93% 🟢 TLX | 2 | $15.76 | 2.34% *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. If you have any feedback or questions, please reply and tag [DareBottle](https://www.reddit.com/user/DareBottle/).*

They're just less convenient with recharge times. I'll not switch from ICE unless there are advancements or we're forced to.

Conservatively, EVs are $6/100km if you assume 30c/kWh energy plan and 20 kWh/100km. If you get an overnight charging plan can get this down to $1.5/100km. IDK how those driving habits listed justify choosing Hybrid/ICE over BEV? Disclaimer I am on the Dale Henderson PLS train

Husbo is a mechanic, and the official answer is: it depends on your driving. \- 30-60 mins each way in metro traffic to get to work, most days? it makes sense to go full EV, especially with solar & batteries at home. \- longer distance driving, like an hour+ on the highway, several times per month? hybrid probably suits better. \- short trips like school run & groceries, several times/week, \~15 minutes each or less? a smaller ICE (internal combustion engine) is likely going to be more economical.

BEVs accounted for 25% of new car sales in Sept,so if your next car isn't an EV the next one definitely will be. People don't appreciate that Australia is a minnow in the global car industry, the world is moving and ICE cars will just phase out https://thedriven.io/2026/10/19/oil-debt-and-the-coming-reset-in-car-values-and-what-it-means-for-evs/

EAT ICE ICEBOY

# SOLD FOR A $50 PROFIT TODAY - GOING TO BUY SOME ICE CREAM WITH THAT!!!!!!!!!

Another example of how U.S. financial media frames China’s EV industry. Benzinga published an article on October 15 titled “China’s Oil Dependency Dropping Fast,” highlighting Elon Musk’s comments about China’s EV adoption. Buried in the opening paragraph? The obligatory line about **“Chinese EV stocks tumble amid mounting industry pressure.”** Meanwhile, the actual September market figures cited in the article were: **47.3%** battery-electric vehicles **19.7%** plug-in hybrids **33%** conventional ICE vehicles Think about that. Roughly two-thirds of new vehicles sold in China are now plug-ins. That’s an extraordinary transformation in just five years. **Here’s what makes the framing even more interesting.** Tesla’s China numbers tell two very different stories: **January–September 2026 versus 2025:** Tesla domestic China retail sales: **DOWN 11.9%** Tesla Shanghai exports: **UP 108.4%** Tesla Shanghai wholesale volume: **UP 22.5%** Tesla’s Shanghai factory is increasingly serving export markets. Rising factory shipments do not necessarily mean Tesla is gaining Chinese consumers. Meanwhile, NIO has been gaining domestic market share, particularly in the premium electric SUV segment with the ES8 and ES9. To be clear, NIO still has serious challenges: ONVO execution, margins, cash generation and profitability. China’s EV price war is real. But those challenges shouldn’t obscure what’s happening in the world’s largest automotive market. **China’s EV transition is accelerating, domestic manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, and Tesla’s Shanghai export numbers shouldn’t be confused with domestic Chinese demand.** The question for NIO investors isn’t whether China is embracing EVs. That battle is largely won. It’s whether NIO can turn its premium positioning and growing domestic share into sustainable profits. **That’s the story worth covering—not another generic headline about Chinese EV stocks tumbling.**

When the recession comes, it will be different this time. There will be a lot of white-collar people thrown out of work but there are not enough blue-collar workers to actually do the work. AI is the sledgehammer knocking down the economy, although the stock market doesn’t see it yet. For example, the data centers are the apex of the building boom, but it can’t boom without 300,000 new electricians and million more skilled laborers in the construction trades; to make up for the ones who have been arrested and deported. You could say that the data centers have been put on ICE; because the AI build-out has begun on paper, and the money has been raised, borrowed and spent on contracts that can’t even begin without a horde of old-fashion blue-collar workers who don’t exist. Alas, the new apps are everywhere but they can’t feed on data unless the labor shortage is fixed. After all, how long does it take to train an electrician, plumber, HVAC technician, welder, etc.? The AI revolution is coming slower than investors think..... bringing more inflation than they expect, with no return on investment to show for it. Literally, an electrician can make $200k/yr working on a data center, if you could find enough of them to actually build it: virtually, a programmer isn’t worth a plumber anymore.

ICE I saw this guy at homedepot in Florida yesterday 👆🏻