ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
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I think there are several big bottlenecks related to the minerals, mining and processing. You identified some really good bits about the regulatory and geopolitical forces around access which have their own issues.
The minerals have many bottlenecks, I’ve spent the most time thinking about copper.
-Ore quality, by and large lower % yielding ores, meaning more mining input for the same output
-recycled copper lags install, and overall the only recycled copper that is helping would have to come from a non-electrical scrap source. (Like replacing copper wires in your house with new copper wires would be net zero copper gain, but scrapping copper pipes into wire and replacing with PEX would have a net increase in copper for electricity)
-quantity needed, insane, using the average numbers I could find, an ICE car uses about 50# of copper, an EV uses 320#. I also found estimated weights of copper in various levels of charging equipment, 7# for home 110 charger, 25# for lvl 2 res, 45# for lvl 2 commercial, and 90# for fast charger.
If all 300 million US gas cars were EVs, with enough plugs of a mix of types to recharge them, would alone use about or a more than the entire global copper production for a year. Which was 28 million metric tons last year, it might take as much as 34 million metric tons. That doesn’t account for feeders to the charging stations either, or the copper needed for the grid additions, or copper for all the other electrified things.
There’s about 400 gallons of diesel equivalent energy per ton of refined copper, so in order to mine all these materials we also have to continue to explore and develop fossil fuels in order to have the energy to power the legacy stuff.

Tesla is being crushed by BYD in Australia
# Australian BEV Sales by Manufacturer – April 2026 (VFACTS/EVC)
**Total BEV sales: 15,459 | Market share: 17% (record) | YoY: +157%**
|# |Manufacturer|Apr |YTD |Models (Apr sales) |
|-:|:-----------|----:|-----:|:----------------------------------------------------------|
|1 |BYD |4,452|14,406|Sealion 7 (1,780), Atto 3 (664), Atto 2 (660), Atto 1 (533)|
|2 |Kia |1,324|3,593 |EV5 (794), EV3 (445), EV4 (62), EV9 (16) |
|3 |Tesla |1,225|8,485 |Model Y (822), Model 3 (403) |
|4 |Geely |1,202|2,639 |EX5 (1,202) |
|5 |MG |1,027|3,049 |MG4 (522), S5 (408), IM6 (48), IM5 (47) |
|6 |Zeekr |1,006|2,838 |7X (973), X (27), 009 (6) |
|7 |Omoda Jaecoo|692 |1,845 |J5 (692) |
|8 |Volkswagen |657 |1,470 |ID.4 (351), ID.Buzz (140), ID.5 (111), ID.Buzz Cargo (55) |
|9 |Toyota |483 |1,323 |bZ4X (483) |
|10|Hyundai |472 |1,516 |Elexio (158), Kona EV (136), Inster (100), Ioniq 5 (72) |
-----
**Key takeaways:**
- BYD alone = 29% of all BEVs sold. Sealion 7 is the #1 selling BEV for 2nd straight month
- Tesla Model Y at 822 — typical non-quarter-end month (was 2,818 in Mar). Still #1 YTD model at 6,719
- Geely EX5 rockets to 1,202 in just its 4th month on sale — single-model brand punching hard
- Kia quietly strong at 1,324 — EV5 + EV3 combo working
- VW Group (VW+Audi+Skoda+Cupra+Porsche) combined: 992 Apr / 2,560 YTD
- Petrol -30.1% YoY, Diesel -21.7% YoY — ICE demand cratering
- BEV share hit record 17%, up from 14.6% in March
- EV FBT exemption extended to April 2028
Source: The Driven / FCAI / EVC.

Statistics show self driving is much safer compared to humans driving...that also goes for car fires. Much more common in ICE cars.

I agree that when he talks about these sci-fi stuff it seems impossible. He's been doing this since the beginning. He talked about landing and reusing rocket boosters, providing Internet from space (like Google's balloon but better), EVs that can replace your ICE car that is faster, safer, and can be your daily driver, a car that can drive itself, a person controlling things with just their brain, and transition to a pure sustainable source of energy. He and the people he inspired that works with him got these mostly done now. The things he's talking about now like robots, data centers in space, robot cars for everyone, Internet for everyone, universal high income, etc. seems impossible, but they deliver something close, we are still better..
I don't agree with him as a person with his antics in politics, the cave-rescue shenanigans, impregnating a lot of women and not marrying them and stuff. But as a software engineer and someone who works in tech, he's doing really good and I'm excited to see how far we can progress in my lifetime.

You wanna chuckle? The whole ICE warehouse thing was just a real estate scheme to defraud the US government. Fuck they are good.

Here's the current US picture, which has shifted significantly since mid-2025:
EV Subsidies — Mostly Gone at the Federal Level
The $7,500 federal tax credit for new EVs no longer exists. Congress eliminated it as part of the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" signed into law on July 4, 2025. The credit expired for vehicles purchased after September 30, 2025. The $4,000 used EV credit was eliminated at the same time.
What's left federally is thin:
A home EV charger installation credit (Section 30C) worth 30% of costs up to $1,000 — but only for buyers in low-income or non-urban census tracts, and it expires June 30, 2026.
A new vehicle loan interest deduction of up to $10,000/year for US-assembled vehicles, running 2025–2028 — this applies to EVs but also any new car.
State-level incentives still exist in places like California, Colorado, and New York, but they vary widely.
Oil & Gas (ICE) Subsidies — Expanded
While EV credits were cut, fossil fuel support actually grew. The US Treasury has identified $35 billion in tax preferences for domestic fossil fuels — including immediate expensing of intangible drilling costs and percentage depletion allowances. On top of that, the 2025 tax reform legislation added nearly $20 billion in further tax breaks for domestic fossil fuel companies.
The key mechanisms:
Percentage depletion: Allows producers to deduct a fixed percentage of gross revenue as capital expenses each year, regardless of how much they've actually invested — one of the three largest subsidies, worth ~$3.3 billion over 2022–2026.
Intangible drilling costs: Immediate expensing of exploration and development costs (~$2.4 billion over the same period).
Structural longevity: Some of these tax subsidies have been on the books for over a century — including a tax break from 1913 allowing companies to write off large amounts of drilling-related expenses. (yale)
Implicit subsidy: Around half of US oil and gas production is estimated to be dependent on subsidies to remain profitable.
The Net Picture in 2026
The policy direction has flipped hard. Federal EV purchase incentives are gone, while fossil fuel tax preferences have expanded. The playing field now tilts more toward ICE than at any point in the past decade. State incentives and the loan interest deduction provide some EV support, but they're a fraction of what existed under the IRA.

I think there are several big bottlenecks related to the minerals, mining and processing. You identified some really good bits about the regulatory and geopolitical forces around access which have their own issues.
The minerals have many bottlenecks, I’ve spent the most time thinking about copper.
-Ore quality, by and large lower % yielding ores, meaning more mining input for the same output
-recycled copper lags install, and overall the only recycled copper that is helping would have to come from a non-electrical scrap source. (Like replacing copper wires in your house with new copper wires would be net zero copper gain, but scrapping copper pipes into wire and replacing with PEX would have a net increase in copper for electricity)
-quantity needed, insane, using the average numbers I could find, an ICE car uses about 50# of copper, an EV uses 320#. I also found estimated weights of copper in various levels of charging equipment, 7# for home 110 charger, 25# for lvl 2 res, 45# for lvl 2 commercial, and 90# for fast charger.
If all 300 million US gas cars were EVs, with enough plugs of a mix of types to recharge them, would alone use about or a more than the entire global copper production for a year. Which was 28 million metric tons last year, it might take as much as 34 million metric tons. That doesn’t account for feeders to the charging stations either, or the copper needed for the grid additions, or copper for all the other electrified things.
There’s about 400 gallons of diesel equivalent energy per ton of refined copper, so in order to mine all these materials we also have to continue to explore and develop fossil fuels in order to have the energy to power the legacy stuff.

Tesla is being crushed by BYD in Australia
# Australian BEV Sales by Manufacturer – April 2026 (VFACTS/EVC)
**Total BEV sales: 15,459 | Market share: 17% (record) | YoY: +157%**
|# |Manufacturer|Apr |YTD |Models (Apr sales) |
|-:|:-----------|----:|-----:|:----------------------------------------------------------|
|1 |BYD |4,452|14,406|Sealion 7 (1,780), Atto 3 (664), Atto 2 (660), Atto 1 (533)|
|2 |Kia |1,324|3,593 |EV5 (794), EV3 (445), EV4 (62), EV9 (16) |
|3 |Tesla |1,225|8,485 |Model Y (822), Model 3 (403) |
|4 |Geely |1,202|2,639 |EX5 (1,202) |
|5 |MG |1,027|3,049 |MG4 (522), S5 (408), IM6 (48), IM5 (47) |
|6 |Zeekr |1,006|2,838 |7X (973), X (27), 009 (6) |
|7 |Omoda Jaecoo|692 |1,845 |J5 (692) |
|8 |Volkswagen |657 |1,470 |ID.4 (351), ID.Buzz (140), ID.5 (111), ID.Buzz Cargo (55) |
|9 |Toyota |483 |1,323 |bZ4X (483) |
|10|Hyundai |472 |1,516 |Elexio (158), Kona EV (136), Inster (100), Ioniq 5 (72) |
-----
**Key takeaways:**
- BYD alone = 29% of all BEVs sold. Sealion 7 is the #1 selling BEV for 2nd straight month
- Tesla Model Y at 822 — typical non-quarter-end month (was 2,818 in Mar). Still #1 YTD model at 6,719
- Geely EX5 rockets to 1,202 in just its 4th month on sale — single-model brand punching hard
- Kia quietly strong at 1,324 — EV5 + EV3 combo working
- VW Group (VW+Audi+Skoda+Cupra+Porsche) combined: 992 Apr / 2,560 YTD
- Petrol -30.1% YoY, Diesel -21.7% YoY — ICE demand cratering
- BEV share hit record 17%, up from 14.6% in March
- EV FBT exemption extended to April 2028
Source: The Driven / FCAI / EVC.

Statistics show self driving is much safer compared to humans driving...that also goes for car fires. Much more common in ICE cars.

I agree that when he talks about these sci-fi stuff it seems impossible. He's been doing this since the beginning. He talked about landing and reusing rocket boosters, providing Internet from space (like Google's balloon but better), EVs that can replace your ICE car that is faster, safer, and can be your daily driver, a car that can drive itself, a person controlling things with just their brain, and transition to a pure sustainable source of energy. He and the people he inspired that works with him got these mostly done now. The things he's talking about now like robots, data centers in space, robot cars for everyone, Internet for everyone, universal high income, etc. seems impossible, but they deliver something close, we are still better..
I don't agree with him as a person with his antics in politics, the cave-rescue shenanigans, impregnating a lot of women and not marrying them and stuff. But as a software engineer and someone who works in tech, he's doing really good and I'm excited to see how far we can progress in my lifetime.

You wanna chuckle? The whole ICE warehouse thing was just a real estate scheme to defraud the US government. Fuck they are good.

Here's the current US picture, which has shifted significantly since mid-2025:
EV Subsidies — Mostly Gone at the Federal Level
The $7,500 federal tax credit for new EVs no longer exists. Congress eliminated it as part of the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" signed into law on July 4, 2025. The credit expired for vehicles purchased after September 30, 2025. The $4,000 used EV credit was eliminated at the same time.
What's left federally is thin:
A home EV charger installation credit (Section 30C) worth 30% of costs up to $1,000 — but only for buyers in low-income or non-urban census tracts, and it expires June 30, 2026.
A new vehicle loan interest deduction of up to $10,000/year for US-assembled vehicles, running 2025–2028 — this applies to EVs but also any new car.
State-level incentives still exist in places like California, Colorado, and New York, but they vary widely.
Oil & Gas (ICE) Subsidies — Expanded
While EV credits were cut, fossil fuel support actually grew. The US Treasury has identified $35 billion in tax preferences for domestic fossil fuels — including immediate expensing of intangible drilling costs and percentage depletion allowances. On top of that, the 2025 tax reform legislation added nearly $20 billion in further tax breaks for domestic fossil fuel companies.
The key mechanisms:
Percentage depletion: Allows producers to deduct a fixed percentage of gross revenue as capital expenses each year, regardless of how much they've actually invested — one of the three largest subsidies, worth ~$3.3 billion over 2022–2026.
Intangible drilling costs: Immediate expensing of exploration and development costs (~$2.4 billion over the same period).
Structural longevity: Some of these tax subsidies have been on the books for over a century — including a tax break from 1913 allowing companies to write off large amounts of drilling-related expenses. (yale)
Implicit subsidy: Around half of US oil and gas production is estimated to be dependent on subsidies to remain profitable.
The Net Picture in 2026
The policy direction has flipped hard. Federal EV purchase incentives are gone, while fossil fuel tax preferences have expanded. The playing field now tilts more toward ICE than at any point in the past decade. State incentives and the loan interest deduction provide some EV support, but they're a fraction of what existed under the IRA.

No, not like oil and gas. You realize there’s a difference between commodities and differentiated products right? With commodities the product is identical, so you simply buy from whoever’s cheapest, as a result, commodities are very competitive industries that strive for maximum efficiency, all subsidies do in that case is make it cheaper for consumers, if one subsidized oil company gets lazy and their efficiency drops, no one will buy their oil and go to another efficient company who’s also subsidized, and the reality is we’re still going to need a lot of fucking oil even if we transition as fast as we can.
Now when you take the auto industry, an oligopoly with products that are dissimilar, like an ev vs an ICE, there is no default “cheapest option”, you try to make a unique product at a price people are willing to pay relative to the rest of the market, the cost of your product is a direct result of your products design and supply chain, so when you subsidize EV’s but not ICE vehicles, you essentially allow automakers to get away with making vehicles that aren’t actually cost competitive with ICE vehicles because the subsidies make up the difference, do you see the problem here?

Are you implying they're not just bad at making EVs, but also bad at making ICE cars profitably?

have you even been to london, very small groups of perpetrators, but most people are good, and its a very diverse city. also as someone else stated, imperial has a lot of international students, so you're unlikely to feel any discrimination there. trump is also not better at all, with what we've seen with ICE and law enforcement in general.

Some of the concerns for the charging infrastructure haven't kept up with reality, Most population centers are well equipped to handle demand particularly since Tesla stations have been made available. Most owners charge at home and many larger gas stations, public facilities, hotels and apartment completes have been adding charging stations. The political climate has downplaying the benefits and demand has suffered. Europe has been able to extend their energy concerns because of their continued alternative investments. Granted that won't last long but it does demonstrate that under the right leadership alternative energy could dramatically accelerate here as well.
The downsides are still there. An EV is more expensive than a similar ICE particularly since the loss of the credits. But the cost of ownership is a small fraction of and ICE or even a hybrid which more than offsets the price differential. The manufacturing complexity and resulting costs of an EV, other than battery costs are much lower than an ICE.
One of the larger challenges we have today is energy. The current politics is making a case for fossil fuels but its just a matter of time before the realization returns that it needs to be supported by alternatives. If I look at some of the moves over the last week I am planning to jump back in,

Außerdem bekommst du kostenlose ICE Tickets, auch für private Zwecke.
Wenn du 12 Monate machst bekommst du potentiell einen Führerschein dazu den du während dem Dienst absolvierst (wenn du für deinen Aufgabenbereich ein Fahrzeug brauchst), beziehungsweise bis zu 3500€ Zuschuss zum Führerschein machen.
Und Unterstützung bei Umbildung für zivile Zwecke. Praktisch ein Stipendium was dein Studium deutlich erleichtert. Inklusive vollem Bafög kannst du sogar ohne Kredit an einer Privatuni studieren oder hast ein ziemlich gutes Einkommen für einen Student.

Dass die Demokraten schlechter dastehen als die reps, die orange und ICE ist auch ne leistung

Regardless of the outcome, a lot of people stopped (myself included) stopped shopping at Home Depot because of their collaboration with ICE. If they maintained revenue over time, it's likely because prices have become inflated due to bad fiscal policy and Americans continuing to spend like there's no recession coming. I'll shop at a local hardware store, or if I need to, Lowe's.