ICE Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Going to keep this short:
1. Teucrium Sugar Fund (CANE) is an ETF that holds a laddered portfolio of ICE No. 11 sugar futures contracts traded on the Intercontinental Exchange, so they would benefit the most out of a sugar price increase.
2. This year's El niño is set to be the worst one in history, with comparisons being drawn all the way back to 1877 (Which is estimated killed ~3% of the world's population) https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/05/12/super-el-nino-1877-population-impacts/
3. Projections are that Wheat, Rice, Corn and Soybeans are going to be heavily affected, but the most impacted would be Cocoa (which recently recovered from it's 2024 record high due to weather conditions in West Africa), Coffee and Sugar.
4. Morgan Stanley has a fairly good research article on why sugar prices might be pushed higher https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/super-el-nino-global-economic-impact-2026
5. if we see the long-term history on $CANE, we can see spikes in:
* 2023: This was also because of El Niño. India (the world's second-largest sugar supplier) experienced its lowest monsoon rainfall in five years, while Thailand (the third-largest supplier) faced severe droughts that cut their sugar output by nearly 20%. Besides quantity, quality also decreased a lot.
* 2016: The 2015–2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. Again, India/Thailand/China were heavily affected.
6. Sugar is also used for Biofuels. The global biofuel from sugar crops market size is valued at approximately $37.2 billion to $52.17 billion. As an example, Ethanol (made from corn or sugar) is mixed with regular gasoline to run everyday cars. In a world where oil prices are still impacted by the US-Iran War, oil alternatives or ways to mitigate price spikes are in a really interesting place. The US congress is still trying to pass a new parmanent fuel mix called E15, which contains 15% ethanol and 85% regular gasoline, compared to the standard E10 (10% ethanol) blend sold year-round, this passed the House but seems stuck in the Senate so I wouldn't bet too much on this particular thing.
7. The conflict in Ukraine messed up global supply chains and drove up energy and fertilizer costs needed for agricultural production. Although at this point this is mostly priced in imo.
8. This article has some really good data about sugar production (which has been in a deficit already for the past 2 years) and how it's consumption is still increasing slightly. https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/lower-production-increases-the-global-sugar-deficit/
9. Extra article if you're interested: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/global-sugar-deficit-fears-underpin-182532397.html
10. This is a multi-year issue:
* Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, has already started its harvest season. El Niño typically brings heavy rains to Brazil during the second half of the year. Wet weather disrupts operations in the fields and delays crushing. Worse, excess rain right before harvesting dilutes the cane, lowering its actual sucrose concentration. Brazil should recover since rain is good for the NEXT season.
* For India & Thailand (second and third largest producers in the world) the timing of El Niño is terrible. The June to September summer monsoon is the most critical growing period for their sugarcane. Because this year's monsoon is severely underperforming, the cane is currently being stunted. They should begin harvesting near the end of the year and info 2027, but expectations are that yields are goine to be drastically reduced. The dry conditions make the development and replanting of new cane (called ratoon cane) incredibly difficult, so this is STILL going to be an issue for the NEXT harvest in 2027/2028.
I think we could see the stock reaching 15 by the end of the year or start of 2027, but unless the rain produces a miracle and Brazil has a huge surplus of sugar in it's 2027 harvest, I wouldn't expect the price to go down soon.