ICE Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Here is what chatGPT made for me, it seems fine to me besides the citations not directly linked to the content, which you would have to make it a default or ask again. Seems pretty impressive to me, please correct me if I am wrong.

\# FULTP Preferred Stock: Return, Call, Peer and Credit Analysis
\*\*Date:\*\* August 9, 2026
\*\*Illustrative purchase price:\*\* $17.53 (August 7, 2026 closing price)
\*\*Security:\*\* Fulton Financial Corporation 5.125% Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A depositary shares (NASDAQ: FULTP)
\*\*Liquidation / normal call value:\*\* $25.00 per depositary share
\*\*Quarterly dividend:\*\* $0.32025 per depositary share when declared
\*\*Annualized dividend:\*\* $1.28100 per depositary share
\*\*Current yield at $17.53:\*\* 7.31%
\> This is scenario analysis, not a prediction or individualized investment recommendation. FULTP dividends are non-cumulative and must be declared. FULTP has no maturity date.
\## 1. Return if Fulton calls FULTP
Assumptions:
\- Purchase August 10, 2026 at $17.53.
\- Fulton continues declaring the current $0.32025 quarterly dividend.
\- For comparability, each scenario assumes redemption on October 15 of the named year.
\- Call proceeds are $25.00 per depositary share; the quarterly dividend is treated as a separate cash payment.
\- Annualized returns use exact dates and therefore look unusually large for a very near-term call.
| Call date | Dividends received/share | Redemption/share | Total cash received/share | Total profit/share | Total return | Annualized IRR |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Oct. 15, 2026 | $0.320 | $25.00 | $25.320 | $7.790 | 44.4% | 664.0%\* |
| Oct. 15, 2027 | $1.601 | $25.00 | $26.601 | $9.071 | 51.7% | 43.9% |
| Oct. 15, 2028 | $2.882 | $25.00 | $27.882 | $10.352 | 59.1% | 25.2% |
| Oct. 15, 2030 | $5.444 | $25.00 | $30.444 | $12.914 | 73.7% | 15.8% |
\\\*The 2026 annualized number is mathematically correct but not a useful base-case expectation; it annualizes a $7.47 par-value gain over only about two months.
\### If FULTP is never called
There is no maturity that forces Fulton to pay $25. At a $17.53 purchase price, the continuing cash yield is approximately \*\*7.31%\*\*, assuming every dividend is declared.
\## 2. Is Fulton likely to call it?
\### Near term: call looks economically unattractive
My assessment is \*\*low near-term call likelihood\*\*, absent a regulatory-capital event or a strategic capital change.
Reasons:
1. FULTP costs Fulton only \*\*5.125% on $200 million\*\*, or about \*\*$10.25 million per year\*\* in preferred dividends if declared.
2. At a $17.53 market price, investors are demanding about a \*\*7.31% current yield\*\* on this same security. Issuing economically similar perpetual preferred capital today would therefore likely cost materially more than 5.125%.
3. Fulton issued \*\*$300 million of 5.950% subordinated notes due 2036 in May 2026\*\*. Subordinated debt is not equivalent to Tier 1 preferred capital, but even this lower-ranking comparison carries a higher coupon than FULTP.
4. Fulton explicitly authorized up to \*\*$25 million\*\* of its 2026 repurchase program for preferred stock and certain subordinated notes. At a deep discount, open-market preferred repurchases can retire $25 liquidation claims for much less than $25, whereas a formal call requires paying $25.
5. FULTP remained outstanding through June 30, 2026 after becoming normally callable on January 15, 2026.
\### What could change the call decision?
A call becomes more plausible if:
\- market yields on comparable bank preferreds fall enough that Fulton can replace 5.125% capital cheaply;
\- Fulton determines it has excess Tier 1 capital and no longer needs the preferred;
\- regulatory treatment changes;
\- Fulton uses retained earnings/common equity growth to absorb the loss of preferred capital; or
\- the security trades near/above par, removing the economic advantage of discounted open-market repurchases.
\## 3. Comparison with alternatives
Market benchmarks around August 7, 2026:
| Investment | Indicative yield | Principal certainty / maturity | Main tradeoff vs FULTP |
|---|---:|---|---|
| FULTP at $17.53 | \*\*7.31% current yield\*\* | Perpetual; no holder put | Highest income here, but junior, non-cumulative, rate-sensitive |
| 1-year U.S. Treasury | 4.01% | Fixed maturity; U.S. government credit | \~3.30 percentage points less yield |
| 5-year U.S. Treasury | 4.35% | Fixed maturity; U.S. government credit | \~2.96 points less yield |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury | 4.65% | Fixed maturity; U.S. government credit | \~2.66 points less yield |
| Broad investment-grade U.S. corporate index | 5.39% | Bonds mature | \~1.92 points less yield |
| BBB U.S. corporate index | 5.57% | Bonds mature | \~1.74 points less yield |
| Top advertised 1-year CDs | up to \~4.40% APY | Fixed term; deposit insurance subject to limits/eligibility | Much less yield, much greater principal protection |
\### Other bank preferreds: recent indicative comparisons
These prices are not synchronized to the same market close, so use them as rough peer context rather than an execution screen.
| Security | Structure | Recent indicative price | Approx. current yield |
|---|---|---:|---:|
| \*\*FULTP\*\* | 5.125% fixed, non-cumulative, perpetual, callable | $17.53 | \*\*7.31%\*\* |
| Citizens CFG Series E | 5.00% fixed, non-cumulative, perpetual, already callable | \~$17.99 | \~6.95% |
| KeyCorp Series F | 5.65% fixed, non-cumulative, perpetual, already callable | \~$20.71 | \~6.82% |
| Fifth Third Class B Series A | 6.00% non-cumulative perpetual | \~$23.02 | \~6.52% |
| Regions Series C | 5.70% fixed-to-floating, non-cumulative perpetual | \~$24.09 | \~5.9% on the fixed coupon |
FULTP therefore screens as a relatively high-current-yield bank preferred, but that extra yield is compensation for perpetual duration, non-cumulative dividends, issuer credit, call asymmetry and market/liquidity risk.
\## 4. Fulton credit risk from a preferred-holder perspective
Second-quarter 2026 metrics:
\- \*\*Total assets:\*\* about $34.56 billion
\- \*\*Shareholders' equity:\*\* about $3.82 billion
\- \*\*Preferred stock carrying amount:\*\* about $192.9 million
\- \*\*Tangible common equity ratio:\*\* 8.8%
\- \*\*CET1 ratio:\*\* 12.1%
\- \*\*Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio:\*\* 12.8%
\- \*\*Total risk-based capital ratio:\*\* 15.9%
\- \*\*Allowance for credit losses / net loans:\*\* 1.48%
\- \*\*Non-performing assets / total assets:\*\* 0.54%
\- \*\*Annualized net charge-offs / average loans:\*\* 0.34%
\- \*\*Q2 net income available to common:\*\* $99.9 million
\- \*\*Q2 preferred dividend:\*\* $2.562 million
The preferred dividend consumed only about \*\*2.5% of quarterly net income before the preferred dividend\*\*, roughly \*\*40x earnings coverage\*\* for that quarter. That is a strong present-day cushion, although preferred dividends remain discretionary/non-cumulative and can be restricted by capital rules.
The main credit negatives to watch are rising non-performing loans, charge-offs, commercial real-estate stress, acquisition integration risk, deterioration in CET1/Tier 1 capital, and a material earnings decline.
\## 5. $10k / $50k / $100k position sizing
Assumes whole shares purchased at $17.53 and all quarterly dividends are declared.
| Budget | Shares | Amount invested | Quarterly income | Annual income | $25 call proceeds | Capital gain if called |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| $10,000 | 570 | $9,992.10 | $182.54 | $730.17 | $14,250 | $4,257.90 |
| $50,000 | 2,852 | $49,995.56 | $913.35 | $3,653.41 | $71,300 | $21,304.44 |
| $100,000 | 5,704 | $99,991.12 | $1,826.71 | $7,306.82 | $142,600 | $42,608.88 |
\### Example: $10,000 position if called
| Call date | Ending cash from FULTP\* | Profit on invested amount |
|---|---:|---:|
| Oct. 15, 2026 | $14,432.54 | $4,440.44 |
| Oct. 15, 2027 | $15,162.71 | $5,170.61 |
| Oct. 15, 2028 | $15,892.88 | $5,900.78 |
| Oct. 15, 2030 | $17,353.22 | $7,361.12 |
\\\*Includes dividends through the assumed call date and $25 redemption; excludes taxes, commissions and reinvestment.
\## Bottom line
At roughly $17.53, FULTP is primarily a \*\*7.3% perpetual income security with a valuable but issuer-controlled $25 redemption possibility\*\*. The investment should work without assuming a call. A future call would create substantial upside from the discount to par, but current market financing economics do not give Fulton an obvious reason to refinance a 5.125% Tier 1 preferred at $25 today.
The strongest current positives are Fulton's capital ratios, strong preferred-dividend earnings coverage and the large discount to liquidation value. The biggest risks are perpetual duration, non-cumulative dividend suspension, bank-credit deterioration and the possibility that Fulton leaves FULTP outstanding for many years.
\## Sources
\- Fulton Series A terms (SEC): [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/700564/000119312520281087/d48426dex31.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/700564/000119312520281087/d48426dex31.htm)
\- Fulton Q2 2026 results: [https://investor.fultonbank.com/news/news-details/2026/Fulton-Financial-Corporation-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx](https://investor.fultonbank.com/news/news-details/2026/Fulton-Financial-Corporation-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
\- Fulton 2026 repurchase authorization: [https://investor.fultonbank.com/news/news-details/2025/Fulton-Financial-Corporation-Announces-Increased-Common-Stock-Dividend-Preferred-Stock-Dividend-and-150-Million-Repurchase-Program/default.aspx](https://investor.fultonbank.com/news/news-details/2025/Fulton-Financial-Corporation-Announces-Increased-Common-Stock-Dividend-Preferred-Stock-Dividend-and-150-Million-Repurchase-Program/default.aspx)
\- FULTP August 7 price history: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FULTP/history/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FULTP/history/)
\- U.S. Treasury daily yields: [https://home.treasury.gov/](https://home.treasury.gov/)
\- ICE BofA U.S. Corporate effective yield (FRED): [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CMEY](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CMEY)
\- ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate effective yield (FRED): [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBBEY](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBBEY)
\- FDIC national rates: [https://www.fdic.gov/national-rates-and-rate-caps](https://www.fdic.gov/national-rates-and-rate-caps)
\- Preferred peer data: [https://www.preferredstockchannel.com/](https://www.preferredstockchannel.com/)