GM
General Motors Company
stock NYSE

GM!

Yet they still make shitty evs with GM batteries

I respect the analysis but I think you’re missing the forest from the trees. The current run is predicated on a simple assumption: AI renders memory as a strategic asset.
Applying the last 5 years as the basis for your forward looking margins is sound if the company was Coca Cola or GM. But this completely ignores the fact that Micron was in the business of producing standard memory products for consumer electronics and the customer profile has shifted to the largest and wealthiest companies in history.
It’s the same arguments I’ve heard about NVDA back in 2022/2023. Cyclical stock, capex can’t last forever etc.
You seem like an intelligent person, and take it from someone who’s worked in IBD and private equity myself. These types of purely quantitative approaches work well for stable businesses (which was the norm during Graham’s time). They cannot be taken as a sole input for the modern era.
Your assumptions are doing a lot of heavy lifting here and I personally think it’s not possible to tune these assumptions with any sort of accuracy with how quickly things are shifting.
That’s just my 2c though. Thoughtful analysis and clearly you’re intelligent but rookie mistake on treating an analysis like this as anything other than one of many inputs towards an investment decision.

Haha, you beat me to it. I’m all in too. Looking for stuff around the house to sell. lol.
That number came to me is a dream. 50 deals with GM, F, Anduril, CAT, Kodiak, Drone companies, Volvo, Nissan, Deere, Aptiv, et al., will do it.

ich rieche Troll... aber versuchen wir mal Punkt für Punkt durchzugehen:
>aber früher als man das noch nicht wirklich konnte, hat man noch Loyalität seinen aktienfirmen gegenüber gezeigt. Da hat man noch beim Waschmittel/ISDN-Vertrag/Autokauf drauf geschaut, dass man „seine“ Marke kauft.
Da es um ISDN Anschlüsse geht, gehe ich mal beispielsweise vom Jahr 2000 aus. Davor waren diese ja eher selten vertreten und nicht flächendeckend verfügbar.
* Waschmittel gab es Henkel? welche deutsche AG wären den überhaupt eine Alternative?
* ISDN? Monopol Telekom sonst keine Alternative, Vodafone hat die Telefonleitungen ja auch nur "gemietet" und ist mittlerweile auf Kabelanschluss spezialisiert.
* Autokauf -> bleibt nur VW und BMW, der rest war schon von bei GM, Chrysler oder halt einfach keine AG.
* MAN AG gäbe es noch, aber für PKW eher uninteressant\^\^
In deinen Beispielen gab es ja praktisch keine Auswahl an deutschen AGs. Und mal davon abgesehen, dass man die Gesamtheit der Kleinanleger kaum etwas zu melden hat. Kleinanleger weniger als etwa 10% des Kapitals in deutschen AGs aus. Früher war das nicht sehr viel höher...
Dazu kommt, dass den Unternehmen im Laufe der Zeit Bestandskunden völlig egal geworden sind. Nach 2 Jahren zahlt man nahezu immer mehr, als nach einem Wechsel als Neukunde bei der Konkurrenz. Wenn Firmen Loyalität nicht wertschätzen, warum sollte man dann loyal sein?

Microsoft had to fire their Israeli GM and senior staff because using European Azure servers for surveillance data was creating a huge legal liability. Moving management to France is just a way to deal with EU regulators while they look for new leadership. This is the same reason companies put data centers in places like Qatar or Chile—to stay away from US government oversight and the Cloud Act. It’s all about navigating a body of regulations that are basically trashed or never enforced anyway.

bummer! This reminds me, I meant to mention GM to illustrate this point - in times of financial turmoil - there is simple **nowhere to hide**!
Not just GM - European and Asian markets that had nothing, zero to do with US mortgage back securities, got clobbered just as badly during the GFC, and it took them a lot longer to recover. People who think that buying only high dividend stocks like Campbell's and Heinz will somehow insulate them from "AI bubble" bursting, are delusional - the entire market will either be fine or go down more or less together, and their dividends will be cut immediately.
So we might as well diversify into the entire market and ride it out.

Oh GM. 20ish+ years ago I was all in individual stocks. I thought I needed a US auto maker in my portfolio. I debated between Ford and GM. Unfortunately I chose GM. I'd be 10k+ richer had I just put it in an index fund.

The dotcom bubble and GFC in 2007 certainly helped form my Boglehead beliefs - that diversification is the key and chasing single stocks is incredibly risky. Cisco, Nortel and Pets.com, Enron scandal, and then Bear Sterns Lehman Bros and GM - who would have thought that mortgage crisis will bring automakers to brink of bancrupcy? The fact that none of the "experts" and even "insiders" didn't see it coming and lost most of their lives savings in those crashes tells me everything that I need to know about inportance of diversification.
I also lived through hyperinflation in Soviet Russia and sometimes have to chuckle when people in US consider brief bout of 8% inflation as "super high inflation"

Well that or if demand was higher Ford/GM would charge more so they wouldn’t loose as much $$

GM cutting hundreds of salaried IT workers as it trims costs, evaluates needs

GM Autists

(S) Sentinel One seems like it would benefit a lot from the AI cybersecurity executive order 🥭 is to sign soon. Key partners or companies that use S are Anthropic, Google, Nvidia, Amazon, JPMorgan, Tesla, Apple, GM, Verizon, United Healthcare Group. They already use it to test AI models etc for cyber security.

The 4 hyperscalers? Yes, they have the cashflow and balance sheet to support it. But the ORCL/CRWV/NBIS of the world don't, neither do OpenAI or xAI. Even for the hyperscalers, their FCF and balance sheet is degrading and causing concern with investors already, META being the prime example. If the expected ROI isn't realize, I would expect significant pull back from the hyperscalers in all the high Capex investment. Keep in mind that the reason why many of the FAANG did so well during the last decade+ is the because they're asset light and generate extremely high gross margin (META was at 80+% GM). Also, one thing that haven't being discussed much since most of the planned DC haven't started is the opex. Between energy cost and unit replacement cost is failure (or just before failure) parts won't be cheap neither, thus eroding some of the operating margin of the hyperscalers. All of these could potentially point to a rerating of the multiples of the hyperscalers going forward.

Everything is drilling except SPY and QQQ.
WMT DG TGT PEP GIS GM. What is going on

BB: Has a long list of backlog contracts from BMW, Toyota, Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Honda, Hyundai, Renault, Nissan, Stellantis that will start printing money once the cars in development come out to production.