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>If that were the case, why is Waymo still dabbling with ~100k vehicles (vehicle cost plus sensor suite)? They had 5+ years to bring down cost. What makes you think this will be happening „overnight“ in the foreseeable future?
Baidu (RT6) is cheaper than the cheapest Tesla costs Tesla (MSRP - profit margin). So the cheaper robotaxis aren’t coming - they’re here. Thousands of them on the street in China operating driver out at a scale of 250k rides/week and testing in both Europe and Asia.
Unlike cybercab they’re operating today at scale. You don’t have to project future prices - the moat is gone today.
Waymo fucked up repeatedly with partners (Jaguar, Zeekr) and they may or may not recover with the Hyundai partnership. But that is only relevant in the US - every other market already has a viable sub 30k competitor. Robotaxi’s TAM just went from global to US.
>Western car makers are still losing money on every single EV they sell, some even >100 % per vehicle. How do you expect will Waymo (er al) be able to get cheaper rides?
Ioniq 5 is a profitable car at right around the same price as the cheapest Teslas on the market right now. Yeah GM and Ford are still shitting the bed but that’s problem with a business model that relies on *everyone* else being incompetent - it only takes 1 to break it. And Hyundai did.
As far as sensor costs we don’t have any recent info about Waymo but it’s sub 5k for the Chinese. So maybe 15-20k for Waymo? Or 25 cents a ride lifetime of car?
>The current tariffs on Chinese EVs surely don’t help in that regard.
Hyundai is made in Georgia.
And it’s a big world.
>I‘m sure it will happen eventually, but it will take another 5+ years at least, especially since most car makers still seem to think a sensor suite is essential.
Sensor suites aren’t expensive anymore. Especially not when amortized over the lifetime of the vehicle. That’s the problem. Elon bet the farm on Lidar remaining expensive and it’s now about $500 and dropping.
>Tesla might make 200-400k of net profit per Robotaxi per year.
Even if Waymos cost 150k/vehicle (number that comes from the early Jaguar + sensor suite 1 days) that doesn’t equate to a million dollar over the lifetime of the car capital advantage. That’s not how math works. And without that advantage you can’t make that profit. Again profit is directly proportional to moat. Small moat = small profit.
>And given their significantly cheaper vehicles, they can undercut their competitors’ pricing at will.
You can’t both have a profit margin much larger than the price difference and undercut. That’s not how math works.
>Whilst the competitors will have to shoulder gigantic losses if they want to compete on price.
If you drop it low enough to bleed competitors congrats you have no margin. That’s the point. There’s no moat. Both can offer rides. Tesla *might in some markets* have a less than $1/ride capital advantage but to use that advantage means to make next to no profit. If Waymo runs at cost and Tesla wants to undercut them it means they also have to run at cost. Congrats there goes your business model. If you want to make them lose money at best you can run at cost. Tesla will have to choose between making an extra few cents a ride or trying to undercut. It can’t do both.
>Let’s see how it will turn out. I‘m definitely not betting against Elon.
Tesla has underperformed the S&P over the last 5 years. Betting Tesla would be a below average company has generally paid off in recent history. Which is shocking given its mag 7 status but here we are.
And Elon is personally individually to blame for robotaxi not having a head start. Had he done lidar at first and then taken it off as the software matured we’d all be in robotaxis now with the lidar’s being removed as we speak. But he was stubborn and silly and now the global market is gone and the US market is questionable.

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