GM
General Motors Company
stock NYSE

The reversibility point cuts hardest at the TOP of your list, not the bottom. "The regulation is the thesis" (TMQ, NEXT) is exactly what nobody sanctions an 8 year mine or an LNG train on when the rule has a 2 year shelf life & a pending court date... those are trades. The names that survive a reversal are the ones where dereg is a rounding error, GM's buyback, VST's load growth, & you'd own those anyway. so the ranking's basically upside down, purest reg play = weakest hold.

Both SCAs with Ford & GM were announced on Micron's third-quarter earnings call as part of a group of 16 deals.
Micron said SCAs now account for about 40% of its business, and eventually half of the business will be tied to SCAs.
How can this be a "cyclical" stock when they're locking customers up in long-term contracts. And I see SK Hynix removed price caps on their own long-term contracts.

Micron and Ford sign long-term memory supply agreement
First GM, now Ford. Yes yes, this stock is cyclical. It peaked. SELL NOW SELL NOW !!!!

I don’t think what the rest of the world does has too much effect in that sense. GM is only in Mexico and South Korea outside the US (before moving to the US I didn’t even know they made cars lol), and they have a “build where you sell” policy, so they could adjust it in America, but not do it in Mexico and SK. And also Mexicos emissions regulations usually mimic the EPAs (although I doubt they would follow in this case).

Can’t see it helping GM as they would be stupid if they didn’t keep investing in reducing emissions as 1. The rest of the world is still going that way and 2. If those rules get reversed they will be scrambling to try and come up with something and be very far behind other manufacturers. I still think GM is a very good investment though as they are very cheap and produce a lot of cash flow. So I would still invest in them but just not the reason you posted about.

Not just that, but some of these things will put these companies behind in the global marketplace if they try to cater to what the US is pushing. Coal for example simply isn't viable for growth. GM not being required for US emissions standards doesn't stop state standards, much less convince the rest of the world to buy their junk. Maybe there are some speculative gains over the course of months but I don't even see this being a safe bet for the next two years. 

1. I am not speaking to tech why do people keep making that assumption. Is tech even a real engineering degree?
2. I am speaking to manufacturing which is flooded with Indian engineers who are frankly often horrible. I used to redo their work constantly for T1/2 suppliers to companies like GM Ford etc.

So the White House published its regulatory agenda Friday. 702 rules on the chopping block, biggest semiannual list ever, claiming $1.5 trillion in savings. I went down a Federal Register rabbit hole this weekend and the picture is more interesting than that.
The catch nobody will mention: most of that $1.5T is already done. About $1.3T of it comes from killing the endangerment finding, which happened back in February. The NEPA environmental review regs got gutted between January and April. Friday's list is mostly a victory lap plus a handful of genuinely new things. The new stuff that matters: DOE proposed on July 2 to permanently end appliance efficiency mandates, and Treasury is writing the rules for R&D expensing and bonus depreciation from the tax bill.
How I ranked these: (1) does a specific rule change hit the actual project or P&L, (2) how much does the stock move per unit of regulatory change (small caps > megacaps), (3) how much already got priced in since the February coal rip.
**1. TMQ** \- purest play I found. The Ambler Road was THE blocker for their entire copper district and the NEPA teardown is exactly what unblocks it. Tiny cap, single asset. The regulation basically is the thesis.
**2. NEXT** \- pre-FID LNG developer, so the stock is basically a permitting option. Faster reviews = faster path to sanctioning the Rio Grande expansion trains. Cheniere already operates and VG is mid-build. NEXT is the one still waiting on paperwork, which is exactly why it has the torque.
**3. TLN** \- merchant power. Every coal and gas retirement that gets delayed keeps their markets tight, and AI load growth is pulling the same direction. Two engines, one stock.
**4. HNRG** \- small cap coal that also owns generation selling into data center demand. The endangerment repeal extends the life of everything they own. Thin float, so it moves hard both ways, fair warning.
**5. VST** \- same thesis as TLN but the version you can actually size. Less juice, way more liquid.
**6. BTU / CNR** \- the most direct mechanism of anything on this list. The endangerment finding was literally the terminal value problem for thermal coal and now it's gone, plus Interior reopened 13M acres of federal land for leasing. Problem is coal already ripped in Feb so a lot of this is priced.
**7. WHR** \- my sleeper. That July 2 appliance rule is the freshest, least priced item in the whole agenda and Whirlpool has been eating compliance and testing costs for years on a stock that's been left for dead. Smallest headline, most unpriced imo.
**8. PPTA** \- opposite logic from TMQ. Permits already in hand, DoD money, antimony angle. Lower torque but way higher odds of actually becoming a mine.
**9. GM** \- billions in emissions compliance costs gone on a truck-heavy lineup, going straight into the buyback. Boring but quantifiable.
**10. NAK** \- Everyone assumes the admin just hands them Pebble. Except their blocker is a Clean Water Act veto, not NEPA, and it gets decided by a judge, not the White House. Oral arguments were June 25, ruling expected later this year. And here's the kicker: Trump's own DOJ defended the veto in court back in February (stock dropped almost 40% around that news). Add a going concern warning and fresh shelf filings, so dilution is coming either way. If the judge vacates the veto it probably moons. If not, it revisits the lows. It's a lottery ticket with a known drawing date. Size it like one.
TLDR: skip NAK unless you like binary court bets. TMQ / NEXT / TLN / HNRG for torque, VST if you want it liquid, WHR as the unpriced sleeper, and fade the HVAC "dereg winners" take.
Not financial advice, I apparently read government documents for fun now and use Claude to help me polish the ideas. Positions: NAK, VST & WHR before this rollout. I will be looking at how things develop to see where to invest my money.

They also assemble AI chips in the former GM Lordstown plant. Softbank and Foxconn both have been busy lately inside.

Rare earths/Critical minerals. TICKER: ALOY What with the January 1st ban on Chinese rare earths. ALOY has a lot of room to run. The Chairman is also President of GM Defence, Ex Raytheon and BAE. Checck our Joe Kasper, an advisor, he has links to the White House. Production starts next year. I could go on as there is so much good to mention. I'm expecting the US Gov to take a stake. The best part is it's still under the radar to many and the retail crowd still hasn't caught on yet, when they do it should really rocket. Worth checking it out.
r/REalloys

GM 💚💚

No, Biden raised tariffs on Chinese EVs and auto parts to 100% on behest of the UAW. It's about unions and what Chinese automakers would do to union labor in the US.
It isn't about Tesla at all. It's about GM and Ford, and to some extent, Stellantis. And since the Japanese automakers also missed out on electrification and connected vehicles as well as autonomy, they would suffer too.

Ford, GM and Tesla wouldn't exist today if it wasn't for government bailouts lol. And they actively prevent chinese cars from coming to the market to protect them as well