GM
General Motors Company
stock NYSE

Koningsegg olmost bought it in 09, GM fugged up

Congrats, you've correctly identified that not all companies thrive indefinitely. IBM was a top company from the 1920's or 1930's all the way until the late 1990's or early 2000's - that's a pretty good run. 
Looking at some of the other largest companies in 1990, like Exxon, Shell, GM and Ford, it's clear that the change was a massive sector rotation. While that could absolutely happen to tech, at the moment, many of the same companies are leading the way in what appears to be the next major trend.

\> A genuine seller's market never has to finance its own buyers.
Tell that to GM.
NVIDIA is betting AI will become more valuable, that demand will actually rise.

That's 50-60 years ago. If you're looking back 25-30 years, the largest companies were more like Microsoft, GE, GM, Wal-Mart, and Exxon Mobil (depending on whether you measure market cap or revenue). So, while some will likely fail, there are still pretty good odds that several will still be very relevant in 25 years.

GM earnings were good, let's see Ford today

GM and F are up…. ETFs DRAM & MARS are down 😑 I think it is the sector.

When I first started I bought a bunch of weed, GE and GM stocks. My GE and Weed shares got wiped but GM doubled so I sold that and bought VOO. Never again lol

How’s GM up so much?

# Investment Thesis
* NVIDIA is the **fastest-growing mega cap** in the market at its **lowest relative valuation** in five years: \~21x forward earnings against a 37.7x five-year average - below even the -1 standard deviation band.
* Consensus expects **\~44% annual EPS growth** for the next five years. That puts the PEG at **0.47** \- either consensus is badly wrong, or the stock is cheap.
* Quality is not the debate: 74% gross margin, 63% net margin, 70% ROIC, \~$119B of free cash flow, \~$40B of net cash, and management sees **more than $1 trillion** of cumulative Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2027.
* The **risks** are real and partly binary: customer concentration, custom silicon, China closed off, Taiwan, peak margins. My model cuts consensus growth by more than half to absorb them.
* Even with that cut, the stock trades **below my Bear Case fair price** (see below).
# Current Valuation
>Price/Fwd Earnings: 20.8x vs 37.7x 5Y average
Price/Fwd Sales: 11.1x vs 17.5x
Price/FCF: 40.7x vs 81.3x
Price/Book: 24.8x vs 36.0x
PEG: **0.47** vs 1.27
Fwd Earnings Yield: 4.81% vs 2.65%
Every multiple is far below its five-year average, several below their -1 standard deviation bands. **Earnings simply grew much faster than the price.** The forward EPS estimate has now overtaken what the market is willing to pay for it - the market pays less than half a unit of valuation per unit of expected growth.
[NVDA P/Fwd E and P/Fwd S, 5Y (Author’s chart via Koyfin)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TbJk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d25e049-1304-4852-b820-47dbb1b36816_2998x1913.png)
[NVDA PEG, 5Y (Author’s chart via Koyfin)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Apcl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53bfb2a4-19a3-4f3a-8763-d0ae77e45c53_2995x1934.png)
[NVDA P/FCF and P/B, 5Y (Author’s chart via Koyfin)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GB6H!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2f95a842-573e-4b14-8d9c-cd12658f282b_3000x1924.png)
One chart frames this whole section. The corridor below takes the consensus forward EPS estimate and multiplies it by the three exit multiples from my fair price model: 20x - roughly today’s multiple, a market that never re-rates; 28x - roughly the -1 standard deviation band of recent years; and 38x - NVIDIA’s own five-year average. Today that corridor runs from \~$199 to \~$378, and the price, at \~$200, is pressed against the very bottom of it. The market is pricing NVIDIA as if today’s skepticism is permanent - every re-rate scenario is upside.
[NVDA Fair Value Corridor, 3Y (Author’s chart via Koyfin)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T0bN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F229e67fa-cd90-4c10-abb0-fb0cc44fdbeb_2993x1938.png)
# Fair Price
[NVDA Fair Price (Author’s estimate)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JAmH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe32362ae-6b89-4718-b0e9-64e9649cb4c0_2244x962.png)
I use **20%** annual EPS growth - and that is not a forecast; it is a rule: 20% is the maximum growth rate I ever plug into this model, no matter what the estimates say. Consensus expects \~44%; the FY2026-FY2028 estimates imply \~34% a year. NVIDIA’s estimates are also the most fragile in mega-cap tech, so the model should not need them to be right. With \~0.4% from dividends, total expected growth is 20.4% a year, turning FY2026 EPS of $8.99 into \~$22.75 by 2031.
The exit multiples are **20x/28x/38x**: 20x is roughly today’s forward multiple (the market never re-rates), 28x is roughly at the -1 standard deviation band of recent years, and 38x is simply NVIDIA’s own five-year average.
>**Bear case** (exit P/E 20x): fair price **$258** \- MoS price $181
**Base case** (exit P/E 28x): fair price **$361** \- MoS price $253
**Bull case** (exit P/E 38x): fair price **$490** \- MoS price $343
[NVDA Price vs Fair Price, 5Y (Author’s chart via Koyfin)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FMeE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F223e5541-d626-40aa-b931-2a1fa248f700_3000x1924.png)
At \~$200, the stock trades below the Base Case MoS price of $253 - the full 30% margin of safety is already in the price even though the model cuts consensus growth by more than half. Even against the bear case, the stock is \~24% below a $258 fair price, and the Bear Case MoS price of $181 is almost exactly the lowest analyst target on the street. **The accumulation zone is $181-258**, and today’s price is inside it.
**Verdict:** NVIDIA belongs in a long-term portfolio as a **core AI-infrastructure position** \- sized for its volatility, not its quality. I am personally starting to accumulate at these levels, inside the $181-258 zone, and I treat NVDA as one of the core companies of my Long-Term Pick portfolio going forward. The realistic bear case (capex digestion, margin normalization) hits the multiple and the estimates at once, so drawdowns of 30-40% are a feature of the position, not a broken thesis. Buy with a **multi-year horizon**, and judge the thesis on hyperscaler capex guidance and the Rubin ramp, not the share price.
# Checklist
**Profitability:**
* Gross margin at least 40%: 74.2%
* Net margin at least 10%: 63.0%
* FCF margin at least 10%: 47.0%
* Management (ROIC, ROE, ROA): Yes (all far above 10%: 70%/114%/53%)
* Piotroski F-Score: 8 of 9
* Revenue surprises in last 5 years: Yes (Based on TradingView’s data)
* EPS surprises in last 5 years: Yes (Based on TradingView’s data)
* EPS growth YoY 5 years in a row: No (the 2022 downcycle; Based on TradingView’s data)
**Valuation and Advantage:**
* Valuation below its 5Y averages: Yes (every multiple, several below -1 standard deviation)
* Valuation below the industry: Yes (P/Fwd E 20.8x vs SOXX at 23.3x)
* Does it have a moat: Yes (wide)
* Outperformed the S&P 500 10-year CAGR: Yes (66.9% vs 15.3%)
**Shares:**
* Insider ownership at least 5%: No (\~4%, mostly Jensen Huang)
* Fewer shares outstanding YoY: Yes
* Insider buys last six months: No (Based on FinViz’s data)
**Price:**
* 1Y price forecast is above 10%: +51%
* Next 5Y EPS growth estimate (CAGR) is above 10%: Yes (\~44%)
* DCF Value: \~$213; undervalued by \~8% (5 years, revenue CAGR \~29% - below consensus, discount rate: 10%, terminal growth: 3%, equity model: FCFF)
* Short Interest below 5%: Yes (1.30%)
# Due Diligence
**Profitability (12 of 12):**
* Positive Gross Profit: $187.95B (for the last twelve months)
* Positive Operating Income: $162.28B (for the last twelve months)
* Positive Net Income: $159.71B (for the last twelve months)
* Positive Free Cash Flow: $119.08B (for the last twelve months)
* Exceptional 1-Year Revenue Growth: 65% (FY2026)
* Exceptional 3-Year Revenue Growth: \~100% (per year for the last 3 years: $26.97B -> $215.94B)
* Exceptional Revenue Growth Forecast: \~47% (per year over the next 3 years, consensus)
* Exceptional ROE: 114% (for the past 12 months)
* Exceptional 5-Year Average ROE: 75%
* ROE is increasing: \~20% -> 114% (in the last 3 years)
* Exceptional ROIC: 70% (for the past 12 months)
* ROIC is increasing: \~14% -> 70% (in the last 3 years)
**Solvency (6 of 6):**
* Total assets ($259.47B) exceed total liabilities ($64.00B) by 4x
* Negative Net Debt: -$40.36B (cash and short-term investments of $53.17B against $12.81B of debt)
* Low Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.07
* Debt-to-Capital: 6.2% (5-year mean: 22.2%; the balance sheet keeps getting cleaner)
* Interest coverage (FFO): 421.6x
* Altman Z-Score: 51.13
# Watchlist Note
Dominant AI compute platform (GPUs + CUDA + networking). \~21x fwd P/E vs 37.7x 5Y avg for \~44% consensus EPS growth; PEG 0.47. 74% GM, 63% NI margin, 70% ROIC, \~$119B FCF, \~$40B net cash. Fair price: bear $258 / base $361 / bull $490 (20% growth cap). Accumulation zone: $181-258. Watch: hyperscaler capex guidance, GM >=70%, Rubin ramp. Earnings: Aug 26.
\---
*This is not a financial or investing recommendation. It is solely for educational purposes.*

# Investment Thesis
* NVIDIA is the **fastest-growing mega cap** in the market at its **lowest relative valuation** in five years: \~21x forward earnings against a 37.7x five-year average - below even the -1 standard deviation band.
* Consensus expects **\~44% annual EPS growth** for the next five years. That puts the PEG at **0.47** \- either consensus is badly wrong, or the stock is cheap.
* Quality is not the debate: 74% gross margin, 63% net margin, 70% ROIC, \~$119B of free cash flow, \~$40B of net cash, and management sees **more than $1 trillion** of cumulative Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2027.
* The **risks** are real and partly binary: customer concentration, custom silicon, China closed off, Taiwan, peak margins. My model cuts consensus growth by more than half to absorb them.
* Even with that cut, the stock trades **below my Bear Case fair price**.
# Current Valuation
>Price/Fwd Earnings: 20.8x vs 37.7x 5Y average
Price/Fwd Sales: 11.1x vs 17.5x
Price/FCF: 40.7x vs 81.3x
Price/Book: 24.8x vs 36.0x
PEG: **0.47** vs 1.27
Fwd Earnings Yield: 4.81% vs 2.65%
Every multiple is far below its five-year average, several below their -1 standard deviation bands. **Earnings simply grew much faster than the price.** The forward EPS estimate has now overtaken what the market is willing to pay for it - the market pays less than half a unit of valuation per unit of expected growth.
[NVDA P\/Fwd E and P\/Fwd S, 5Y \(Author’s chart via Koyfin\)](https://preview.redd.it/idawvaxqoxfh1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=b59ba06cf7f8d213ec9f0ab81be684d12cd1a010)
[NVDA PEG, 5Y \(Author’s chart via Koyfin\)](https://preview.redd.it/su7nzmproxfh1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bca7999a467da51329cea6c9aee266439d79ce2)
[NVDA P\/FCF and P\/B, 5Y \(Author’s chart via Koyfin\)](https://preview.redd.it/17gouzisoxfh1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ab5250bb26ae6117ad58dc6c8d85b60ad74e629)
One chart frames this whole section. The corridor below takes the consensus forward EPS estimate and multiplies it by the three exit multiples from my fair price model: 20x - roughly today’s multiple, a market that never re-rates; 28x - roughly the -1 standard deviation band of recent years; and 38x - NVIDIA’s own five-year average. Today that corridor runs from \~$199 to \~$378, and the price, at \~$200, is pressed against the very bottom of it. The market is pricing NVIDIA as if today’s skepticism is permanent - every re-rate scenario is upside.
[NVDA Fair Value Corridor, 3Y \(Author’s chart via Koyfin\)](https://preview.redd.it/hhl9rljtpxfh1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=d958861f944c074b907b523b5707d737688b8833)
# Fair Price
[NVDA Fair Price \(Author’s estimate\)](https://preview.redd.it/zikpupvvoxfh1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bbbaa8b2b3769e3607a776830d60cb18abb077c)
I use **20%** annual EPS growth - and that is not a forecast; it is a rule: 20% is the maximum growth rate I ever plug into this model, no matter what the estimates say. Consensus expects \~44%; the FY2026-FY2028 estimates imply \~34% a year. NVIDIA’s estimates are also the most fragile in mega-cap tech, so the model should not need them to be right. With \~0.4% from dividends, total expected growth is 20.4% a year, turning FY2026 EPS of $8.99 into \~$22.75 by 2031.
The exit multiples are **20x/28x/38x**: 20x is roughly today’s forward multiple (the market never re-rates), 28x is roughly at the -1 standard deviation band of recent years, and 38x is simply NVIDIA’s own five-year average.
>**Bear case** (exit P/E 20x): fair price **$258** \- MoS price $181
**Base case** (exit P/E 28x): fair price **$361** \- MoS price $253
**Bull case** (exit P/E 38x): fair price **$490** \- MoS price $343
[NVDA Price vs Fair Price, 5Y \(Author’s chart via Koyfin\)](https://preview.redd.it/18rz5tiyoxfh1.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=f689506ce8e9556876f8fa2ecdb7052a50715054)
At \~$200, the stock trades below the Base Case MoS price of $253 - the full 30% margin of safety is already in the price even though the model cuts consensus growth by more than half. Even against the bear case, the stock is \~24% below a $258 fair price, and the Bear Case MoS price of $181 is almost exactly the lowest analyst target on the street. **The accumulation zone is $181-258**, and today’s price is inside it.
**For the track record:** my February 2025 fair price was $187. The stock passed it, and instead of becoming expensive, it became cheaper - because earnings more than doubled while the multiple compressed. That is the update in one sentence.
**Verdict:** NVIDIA belongs in a long-term portfolio as a **core AI-infrastructure position** \- sized for its volatility, not its quality. I am personally starting to accumulate at these levels, inside the $181-258 zone, and I treat NVDA as one of the core companies of my Long-Term Pick portfolio going forward. The realistic bear case (capex digestion, margin normalization) hits the multiple and the estimates at once, so drawdowns of 30-40% are a feature of the position, not a broken thesis. Buy with a **multi-year horizon**, and judge the thesis on hyperscaler capex guidance and the Rubin ramp, not the share price.
# Checklist
**Profitability:**
* Gross margin at least 40%: 74.2%
* Net margin at least 10%: 63.0%
* FCF margin at least 10%: 47.0%
* Management (ROIC, ROE, ROA): Yes (all far above 10%: 70%/114%/53%)
* Piotroski F-Score: 8 of 9
* Revenue surprises in last 5 years: Yes (Based on TradingView’s data)
* EPS surprises in last 5 years: Yes (Based on TradingView’s data)
* EPS growth YoY 5 years in a row: No (the 2022 downcycle; Based on TradingView’s data)
**Valuation and Advantage:**
* Valuation below its 5Y averages: Yes (every multiple, several below -1 standard deviation)
* Valuation below the industry: Yes (P/Fwd E 20.8x vs SOXX at 23.3x)
* Does it have a moat: Yes (wide)
* Outperformed the S&P 500 10-year CAGR: Yes (66.9% vs 15.3%)
**Shares:**
* Insider ownership at least 5%: No (\~4%, mostly Jensen Huang)
* Fewer shares outstanding YoY: Yes
* Insider buys last six months: No (Based on FinViz’s data)
**Price:**
* 1Y price forecast is above 10%: +51%
* Next 5Y EPS growth estimate (CAGR) is above 10%: Yes (\~44%)
* DCF Value: \~$213; undervalued by \~8% (5 years, revenue CAGR \~29% - below consensus, discount rate: 10%, terminal growth: 3%, equity model: FCFF)
* Short Interest below 5%: Yes (1.30%)
# Due Diligence
**Profitability (12 of 12):**
* Positive Gross Profit: $187.95B (for the last twelve months)
* Positive Operating Income: $162.28B (for the last twelve months)
* Positive Net Income: $159.71B (for the last twelve months)
* Positive Free Cash Flow: $119.08B (for the last twelve months)
* Exceptional 1-Year Revenue Growth: 65% (FY2026)
* Exceptional 3-Year Revenue Growth: \~100% (per year for the last 3 years: $26.97B -> $215.94B)
* Exceptional Revenue Growth Forecast: \~47% (per year over the next 3 years, consensus)
* Exceptional ROE: 114% (for the past 12 months)
* Exceptional 5-Year Average ROE: 75%
* ROE is increasing: \~20% -> 114% (in the last 3 years)
* Exceptional ROIC: 70% (for the past 12 months)
* ROIC is increasing: \~14% -> 70% (in the last 3 years)
**Solvency (6 of 6):**
* Total assets ($259.47B) exceed total liabilities ($64.00B) by 4x
* Negative Net Debt: -$40.36B (cash and short-term investments of $53.17B against $12.81B of debt)
* Low Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.07
* Debt-to-Capital: 6.2% (5-year mean: 22.2%; the balance sheet keeps getting cleaner)
* Interest coverage (FFO): 421.6x
* Altman Z-Score: 51.13
# Watchlist Note
Dominant AI compute platform (GPUs + CUDA + networking). \~21x fwd P/E vs 37.7x 5Y avg for \~44% consensus EPS growth; PEG 0.47. 74% GM, 63% NI margin, 70% ROIC, \~$119B FCF, \~$40B net cash. Fair price: bear $258 / base $361 / bull $490 (20% growth cap). Accumulation zone: $181-258. Watch: hyperscaler capex guidance, GM >=70%, Rubin ramp. Earnings: Aug 26.
[**Full analysis**](https://longtermpick.com/p/nvidia-analysis-2026)
\---
*This is not a financial or investing recommendation. It is solely for educational purposes.*

Imagine being a Boomer with two kids in Flint, Michigan when they were closing down all the GM plants in the 80’s. There ain’t no internet. You know you gotta leave town. How do you even figure out where to go? The average Millennial or younger in the United States would melt if confronted with such a dilemma and Boomers just loaded up a UHaul and YOLOed moves across the country in an era where it cost fifty cents a minute to call long distance. Being in your 20’s or 30’s in America today is the best spot among all humans who have ever lived. 

I don’t understand why everyone is so critical of nvidia for these financing deals. Vendor financing has been around for decades. Look at GE capital back in the day - financing purchases of turbines and aircraft engines. In general any heavy equipment can be purchased this way - Boeing for aircraft or Caterpillar. Ever buy a car - Ford, GM and Toyota all have their own finance arms.
Nvidia is making massive amounts of cash right now. They’d be stupid not to put some of that to work financing deals to purchase their own equipment. The main catch is leverage. GE capital eventually became over leveraged and exposed during the financial crisis. In a downturn could nvidia expose them self to additional risk? Of course it’s a risk but it’s something to be managed not completely avoided.

GM CEO just compared her workers to the Founding Fathers and Revolutionaries LOL

Trump: It's Amazing what tariffs will do for GM 👀

People think these manufacturers build their own products when they largely don’t.
I have built automation cells that support both Tesla and every other manufacturers parts in back to back shifts.
Many of these tiered suppliers when you walk their floor are a large mixture of every manufacturer you can think of.
In some cases like Toyota or “Toyoda” they even build parts for companies like ford, GM, and Tesla. (Coolant, Fuel, and evap lines in particular).

I know but Server CPUs have a 1000 bps gross margins over corporate GM. Lisa upgraded AMD view on AI server growth on thursday so maybe they will update their GM estimate soon.

There is a very good piece of research by Tim Acuri from UBS one of the most respected analyst on Wall Street. He updated his AMD 2027 eps to 19$ after the AI event. Current consensus is around 14 $. His upgrade is based on the much better gross margins of the EPYC server business line which is 1000 bps of 10% above the corporate average. The surge in AI agentic will have two effects. One is of course much higher revenue but also much better gross margins. He argues that gives a lot of leeway for AMD to price its MI500 at a lower price to get market share. I see the argument but I dont think that AMD needs to do that as compute is scarce. One can see the difference of having a company with high growth with increasing gross margins (AMD) and one that is growing also stronglyy but is already at extreme level of profitability (Nvdia). The memory makers have witnessed a surge in GM and a surge in sales which led to amazing profitability. Of course this profitability of the memory makers are not sustainable longer term as they are basically commodity products that are beneffiting from an extraordinary imbalances. This is the multiple effect that could lead us to 800 shortly. Higher GM + Higher unit growth = Surging profitability and eps which AT THE END leads to higher multiple. All factors increase resulting in a surge in the stock price.

You telling me GM to the E isn’t in there? 🙄