GM
General Motors Company
stock NYSE

GM 🫡

You've got it — it's almost all price, not volume. 2024 demand ran into 2022-23 glut inventory that had to clear first, and HBM crowding-out took time to bite (an HBM stack eats 3-4x the wafers per bit, so shifting capacity to HBM starves commodity DRAM and lifts the whole deck). So 84.9% GM is a cyclical price peak — memory margins always revert. Durable part = HBM (contracted, sold out through 2026, design-locked); cyclical part = commodity ASP. Watch HBM-% vs spot DRAM, and bit-growth vs ASP: profit on flat bits = late cycle.

SpaceX; Oracle; Google; GM; Yelp; Dell; Intel; Cisco; idk fucking Krispy Kreme
There fixed it for ya

GM 🫡

You've got it — it's almost all price, not volume. 2024 demand ran into 2022-23 glut inventory that had to clear first, and HBM crowding-out took time to bite (an HBM stack eats 3-4x the wafers per bit, so shifting capacity to HBM starves commodity DRAM and lifts the whole deck). So 84.9% GM is a cyclical price peak — memory margins always revert. Durable part = HBM (contracted, sold out through 2026, design-locked); cyclical part = commodity ASP. Watch HBM-% vs spot DRAM, and bit-growth vs ASP: profit on flat bits = late cycle.

SpaceX; Oracle; Google; GM; Yelp; Dell; Intel; Cisco; idk fucking Krispy Kreme
There fixed it for ya

memory is kinda running on its own story right now, separate from the broader market. AI demand has DRAM and NAND prices spiking (DRAM was up like 44% last quarter) so Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung are all riding that wave even on red days. theres also fresh catalysts, Micron just signed a big supply deal with GM and SK Hynix starts trading on the Nasdaq July 10. so when everything else sells off, money still flows into the memory names because the pricing tailwind is so strong.

Disclaimer - I didn't plan for this comment to be so long. I just kept writing!
No worries.
Sorry, I didn't mean to portray that all 24m shares would be "dumped" at the same time.
Obviously, the offset to selling shares into the market, which would put downward pressure on the stock, is the business traction that Microvision demonstrates, which should help to advance the market cap and hence the stock price.
However, if indeed Microvision would need to raise additional capital in support of scaled production, it would presumably be accompanied by announced deals and therefore increased market cap.
No one can predict the balancing act of dilution vs. business traction and the resultant market cap for Microvision. That is really the bet right now. Is Microvision currently undervalued or overvalued based upon their expected/promised future traction vs. their need to raise capital in the short and medium terms?
The way I see it is...
- New regime under Glen
- A broad platform with products saleable today (Iris and MOVIA). Future proofing with Halo and Scantinel.
- A rising Defense and Security market - the proposed Defense *Autonomous* Warfare Group (DAWG) budget is $54B. It previously was $300m. And that is only for the US. NATO has agreed to increase their defense spending. The annual NATO defense spend increase when comparing years 2024 and 2027 is approximately $500B. That takes a $1.3T spend to $1.8T
- A rising industrial market.
- A rising ADAS and Autonomous vehicle market - this includes trucks, commercial vehicles, robotaxis, and passenger vehicles. There are more and more articles and OEM plans talked about every day.
- LiDAR rising in prominence. Evidenced by thing like the recent CNBC report on Hesai - entitled Blacklist. As well as a proposed New Jersey law required multi-mode sensors for automated vehicles. If this law is passed, it would effectively mandate a LiDAR sensor. In addition, Ford, GM and Rivian have publicly stated LiDAR sensors are required for L4.
- Ban on Chinese LiDAR, whether it be a formal legal ban or a prudent business decision by OEMs fearful of future legislation.
In some similar way, it seems to me that Microvision is/was at the precipice of failing, similar to where they were in February of 2020. At that time, the failure scenario was abrupt and stark. They just lost the single massive deal (Amazon interactive projector) they had been forecasting with confidence for 6 to 9 months. The market cap dropped to ~$20m. They laid off 2/3rds of the staff (from 90 to 30), the party was really over. Kalshi had them at a 95% chance of being sold, perhaps in a bankruptcy proceeding ;-). And then, they (we) got lucky. A once in a lifetime MEME (not MEMS) stock craze which happened to include a mini bubble for LiDAR companies. If you ask me, pure serendipity.
With the benefit of hindsight, I feel like today's situation is very similar, but not as quite as evident. Unbeknownst to investors, I think the February 2020 timeline happened again in August of 2025. This time, there was no public proclamation of a lost deal, or how dire the situation had become. But make no mistake the situation was dire. Microvision had no meaningful prospects to win deals in the near or mid-term. They really had no saleable products. MAVIN was a flop. And even after a $12M production committment to ZF for MOVIA-L, MOVIA-L was not selling (not sure why). Perhaps a misjudgement by management as to it efficacy. They had a CEO who clearly could not get the job done on the commercial side. Things were very bleak.
Dateline: September 4th, 2025 - The Microvision BoD installed Glen as the CEO. Presumably they brought Glen on in April as CTO as a potential replacement for Sumit in case of fire. Anyway, fast forward 1 year from August of 2025 and things appear to be very different. More than 100 customers and prospects in the pipeline and growing. Shipping to over 40 customers. A saleable product portfolio that is "Ready Now", with a future product roadmap. And perhaps, with some serendipity, a rising market for Physical AI, LiDAR, in autonomy and defense.
I don't know, things seem to be trending positively again for the LiDAR market. Perhaps the LiDAR winter is over and the spring thaw is upon us. Microvision seems to be poised to have a chance to compete. At any rate, if proposal 3 fails, it may not kill Microvision's prospects, but it will hurt them greatly. They will need to come back for another shareholder vote. This will hurt the balance sheet, as it will require near term dilution at a depressed market cap, and also possbily delay any OEM making a purchase decision. If anyone believes a failed vote will increase the near term stock price, reach out to me, I have a great piece of land, and island actually, off the coast of northern New Jersey I can sell you.
I don't discount the benefit a warrants or rights offering can bring to existing shareholders. And perhaps the BoD will consider that in the future. The way I see it, similar to the opportunity in Feb/March of 2020, if you believe in Microvision, this *could* be another buying opportunity. Again, with hindsight, it seems now may even be a greater risk/reward opportunity as it does not necessarily require a once in a lifetime market bubble for success. This is not financial advice and please do your own due diligence.
I realize not everyone has the dry powder to make an additional investment. But we all should evaluate the situation regarding our current investment when considering how we vote our shares. I absolutely respect everyones right to vote their shares as they see fit.

You have to look at the history of the market on a chart. Sears, U.S. Steel, GM were huge players back in day. They rotated down the food chain or went bankrupt. The SP500 is the best investment in the world. It's a roller-coaster just hang on for the ride.

The test shown is GM 5m
Strat was developed on 5 min metals, some components came from building 15m/1h on other strategies but they fully generalize to these on 5m . Works directionally on some 4-5 fx pairs and a bunch of other equities
Thankfully I don't have to tune a bunch of knobs either it's basically class level settings and direction only