GM
General Motors Company
stock NYSE

Exactly and GM still owes the money. Their product f’ing sucks.

That sucks. I'm not a junior-thank God. Yeah, my dad sucks. He's doing reasonably well now but...yeah, he sucks.
We have a very unique last name and that has gotten me in trouble. My dad and brother have both been to prison and were both kicked out of a major union because of their drug use and drug trafficking. And my uncle I guess screwed over GM in some sort of merger or something. I didn't realize it until my 20s but I'm basically blacklisted from several businesses because of my last name.

To me the sell-off makes sense if you look at it as guidance rather than the quarter. Q1 GM guides to 83-85% versus 84.6% in Q4, so the market is being asked to pay for visibility, not another margin expansion. The $16.5B in financial guarantees is what gets them to 4+ years of revenue visibility, but that also means the cycle risk hasn't gone away; it's moved to the customers who guaranteed those future bits.

No worries. I think it’s important to know which companies it was if you’re looking for a new car. I won’t buy from GM or FCA / Stellantis for multiple reasons, but their past willingness to take my tax dollars to pay out bonuses to execs definitely factors in.

Similar vein …
Amazon is not profitable, JC Penney is profitable, Toys R Us captured the toy market and expanding into kids computing.
When BMW, GM, Ford, and the legacies get into EV, no one will buy a Tesla.
Steve Scam Jobs will never see a profit selling $599 unsubsidized iPhone.
Good luck dude.

Neither Ford nor Toyota (a Japanese company) received U.S. government bailouts following the 2007 crash. GM and Chrysler did, however.

There's a specific kind of quiet that happens right before a margin call.
I don't think enough people talk about that part — not the number, the quiet.
 
Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused fund went from zero to $45 billion, then down to $10 billion.
Not all of it was margin, but enough of it was, and it was concentrated — five correlated AI-infrastructure-adjacent positions (SMCI, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave among them) dropping together in the same month, \~35% in one stretch.
That's the mechanism people skip past: it wasn't one bad bet, it was one bet wearing five different tickers.
 
He was also short Adobe. Adobe went up.
Being partially right doesn't save you — a hedge only protects what it's actually sized to protect, and this is the part that got him: three prime brokers (per CNBC's reporting) started calling at once.
Not one call. Three, simultaneously.
That's the system's own alarm bell going off.
 
Here's mine, since we're talking about leverage used well versus leverage that uses you:
>*Years ago I was on the tender team for a major Malaysian construction job, competing against the two other largest contractors in the country. My GM, Mr. Chung, spotted the one contractual gap the client's own consultants hadn't caught. When they tried to pump him for the fix for free, he didn't fall for it — he told them straight: we can help you solve it, cheaply, with minimum delay, but we have to get the contract first, before we can go in and assess it. That's not a bluff. That's understanding your own leverage well enough to use it on your own terms, not the other side's. We won the contract months later. Leopold never got that chance — the market decided his terms for him, not the other way around. He still walked away with $300 million, which is the part nobody in the clip stops to sit with. That's not the actual takeaway, though. The takeaway is knowing exactly how much leverage you're carrying, on purpose, before someone else decides it for you.*
 
Ken Griffin (Citadel) stepped in as the liquidity provider — what Tom, PBD's co-host, called a "white knight" on the show.
Half the room called that predatory.
Half called it structural necessity.
Both readings are true at once, and that's the actual lesson:
>*Understanding why rescuers exist structurally is a different literacy than just watching one show up.*
 
Clip credit: PBD Podcast — full video on their channel. DM for credit or removal requests.
 
Drop your take: predator, or necessary?
Genuinely curious where this sub lands on it.

This one caught my eye earlier this afternoon because I saw a 200k Yolo post on it. I had no idea of a potential short squeeze and that has me more skeptical than hopeful. I am entering on Monday and I will give you the gist of why.
I just looked at the 5 year chart and the story is there - they screwed the pooch with their EV fleet, Used car market cooled off, depreciation increased, and their balance sheet went to shit. Seems like wall street had this pegged (nice) for bankruptcy. But I still see them at every airport I went to for the last 2 years. A simple napkin math exercise - If I get in at 2.50 and it reclaims a third of what it dropped over the last 5 years, thats 5x... at this price that is enough asymmetric risk to reward for me
I simply asked ChatGPT to find out how many locations have closed in the last 2 years, how much of that as a percentage of how many locations they had 2 years ago (11.5%) and whether or not there is a story behind the numbers (I.E. airport locations are unscathed but stand alone locations are getting annihilated). I personally don't think 11.5% of locations closing is indicative of "Catastrophic Failure". So did some more prompts.
One thing that really catches my attention is them appointing a new CEO in April 2024. Admitting defeat and hiring the former COO of Delta Airlines and GM's autonomous driving company. I don't think you would leave that cushy spot and risk your professional reputation if you didn't think you could turn a company around - that is not data at all, 100% just my sentiment. This was not a singular hire, there has been significant leadership restructuring with it.
Credit Markets haven't shut them out either. They are not behaving like its destined for bankruptcy, although they are naturally taking advantage of their vulnerability and charging a premium.
Finally, ER are showing a legitimate financial turn around... Unless they are fudging numbers (sadly becoming more common nowadays) there is something substantial just in Revenue, EBITDA, and net income.
I was planning on buying and holding for a couple years anyway, with my own price target of 10 a share just based on some arbitrary aforementioned 1/3 of a rebound is 5x return.
The elephants in the room are leveraged debt, a still relatively weak balance sheet, and dilution risk. But if they can keep the numbers like this and avoid used car prices going to shit and further depreciation, I actually think this is a solid medium/long term hold.
Just some thoughts from a random internet stranger/semi shitty stock market participant 🤷‍♂️

When you finance a car with GM, you are using a car, which decrease in value, as collateral. Then you are taking that loan money that you got from the GM car to pay GM. Do you see how this is a problem or nah?

The laws of man may become lax but the laws of physics still apply. GE and GM were both carrying mortgage books that were bigger than virtually everyone but the money center banks in 2008 and it bankrupted GM and nearly crushed GE. 

For those that don't know, Stern went off on the TWolves and Joe Smith and that was just for a secret handshake deal, basically what the Bucks and Gary Trent Jr. pretty obviously just did. TWolves lost 5, FIVE, 1st round picks, fined $3.5MM ($7MM in today's money), Smith's contract was voided, and the owner, GM, and other front office staff were suspended for a year.

GM Mrs. London, wish you a great day ✅🙌🫡