GM Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

MSOS at $4.860. Up 3.84% today.
Avg daily volume of 8.172 M over the last year, spiking to 17.6M over the last 10 days.
Beta of 1.10 against SPY, 0.85 against IWM, 0.78 against QQQ. Beta 0.12 3YR
Annualized volatility of 112%, roughly 9x the S&P 500.
NAV of $4.69, trading at a slight premium. . The 52-week range is $2.06 to $7.25.
**Top Holdings:**
| Holding | Weight | Revenue | Net Income | EBITDA | GM | Debt | Cash |
| ----------- | ------- | ------- | ---------- | ------ | ----- | ------- | ----- |
| Green Thumb | \~18% | $1,175M | +$114M | +$283M | 48.9% | $518M | $274M |
| Trulieve | \~15-18% | $1,181M | -$111M | +$322M | 60.2% | $565M | $256M |
| Curaleaf | \~8-10% | $1,268M | -$247M | +$222M | 49.8% | $1,037M | $102M |
| Cresco | \~5-8% | $656M | -$135M | +$126M | 49.5% | $584M | $58M |

Green Thumb is the anchor: profitable with positive FCF of $166M, clean balance sheet, P/E of 15.7. Trulieve is operationally strong at 60% gross margin and $322M EBITDA but carries net losses from debt service. Curaleaf has the most revenue but heaviest debt load.
**How Rescheduling Changes Everything:**
The single biggest lever is IRC 280E elimination. Currently cannabis companies can only deduct cost of goods sold, not operating expenses, forcing effective tax rates of 50 to 80%. Schedule III removes 280E and they file normal corporate taxes at roughly 21%.
Real math on Green Thumb: $1.175B revenue, $283M EBITDA, $114M net income. With 280E gone their tax bill drops from roughly $100M to roughly $22M. Net income goes from $114M to about $192M, a 68% increase from a single tax change with zero revenue growth needed. Additional benefits include normal banking access, exchange uplisting, and P/E compression toward consumer staples levels.
**Options Sentiment (Weekly May 1):**
OI P/C of 0.11 (56,008 calls vs 6,314 puts). Roughly 9 calls for every 1 put. A third of call OI is at the $6 strike, 24% OTM.
**Delta Exposure (DEX):**
| Expiry | Net DEX | Reading |
| -------- | --------- | ------- |
| May 1 | +$78,251 | Bullish |
| May 15 | +$45,355 | Bullish |
| Jun 18 | +$191,554 | Bullish |
| Sep 18 | +$55,049 | Bullish |
| Jan 2027 | +$318,877 | Bullish |
| Jan 2028 | +$81,121 | Bullish |
Every expiry is positive. Total call DEX of $892K against $100K put DEX. January 2027 alone holds $319K of structural long positioning.
**Gamma Exposure (GEX):**
| Strike | Net GEX | Role |
| ------ | ------- | ---------------- |
| $4.50 | +$121K | Support |
| $5.00 | +$524K | Largest anchor |
| $5.50 | +$171K | Resistance shelf |
| $6.00 | +$233K | Upside wall |
| $7.00 | +$141K | Far OTM |

Total call GEX of $1.70M against $322K put GEX. The dominant level is $5 at +$524K where dealers are long gamma and stabilize price. Support at $4.50 with $121K. Upside wall at $6 with $233K. The whole structure is positive gamma from $4.50 through $10.

**Dark Pool:**
Short volume at near one year lows. Week ending April 24 had 19.77% short volume with a long/short ratio of 4.06, meaning over $4 of long volume for every $1 shorted. Historical average is 35 to 45%. In mid-2025 it was above 50%. The declining trend is bullish.
**Unusual Activity:**
One notable trade. April 20, $510,000 premium, bought $6 calls expiring September 18 at 144 days out. At ask, bullish. Directional bet on rescheduling before September.
**Todays Largest Trades (all buys):**
Opening print at 9:30 AM at $4.63 for 52,119 shares for $241K on NYSE Arca. Three dark pool prints at $4.73, $4.77, and $4.80 through the morning for another $463K. All buys, accumulation at rising prices.

**Correlation Data (1 year):**
| vs | 1-Yr R | R2 | 60D Now | Range |
| --- | ------ | ---- | ------- | -------------- |
| SPY | +0.12 | 1.5% | +0.43 | -0.07 to +0.44 |
| QQQ | +0.11 | 1.3% | +0.44 | -0.12 to +0.45 |
| IWM | +0.15 | 2.2% | +0.42 | -0.01 to +0.47 |
| TLT | -0.02 | 0% | +0.08 | -0.32 to +0.20 |
MSOS is uncorrelated on a full year basis with over 97% of moves explained by its own sector. But the 60 day rolling correlation has surged to its highest all year at 0.43 against SPY. In January it was negative. This shift means MSOS is tracking the broad market more closely than it has all year. If it reverts to independence, sector catalysts need to reassert. If elevated correlation holds, macro is increasingly driving price.
Summary: Bullishly positioned across every expiry and every key gamma level. Dark pool shorts at one year lows. Todays flow was all buys. The rescheduling catalyst has real math behind it with net income uplift of roughly 68% from a tax change alone. The risk is the rising correlation to the broad market, which could drag MSOS down in a risk off environment even if cannabis specific factors are intact.

Not financial advice my opinion, I can be wrong, this etf is high risk, high reward, hedge accordingly and position your portfolio according to your risk tolerance

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