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Tariffs will likely stick through other legal avenues even if Supreme Court rules against IEEPA. The threat of Chinese exportation of deflation (purposeful industrial overcapacity with excess inventory) is a national security issue for the ROW. Biden didn't even rescind the tariffs Trump imposed in his first term.
Every single goods touched by China, i.e., manufacturing industry that China had purposefully developed, has lead to deflation due to an overcapacity issue which plagues communist states as free-market principles are not adhered. What China plans is to essentially export excess inventory (deflation) out of its domestic enterprises by exporting cheap electronics with unsustainable margins, which kills and will kill almost all non-foreign manufacturing competition who cannot compete on price with Chinese peers (who are subsidized directly/indirectly, i.e., hidden). In fact, involution occurs even within their domestic industries.
The logic here is then, upon the death of foreign manufacturing competition, and as they position as a global manufacturing monopoly, will raise prices to make their companies self-sustainable (as the total reliance to Chinese goods & no alternative will give them pricing power) - what China ultimately wants is to raise the quality of life of its population, and raising prices in this context and thus raising margins will accelerate average wage growth and thus improve the quality of life of its population. For this to happen, they need to be a total global manufacturing monopoly, and this also means its a national security issue for US and ROW.
China has fantastic EVs, and go look at every 5Y stock chart of big OEMs that invested heavily in EVs due to regarded European ESG policies (stellantis, mercedes, renault, volkswagen, porche...etc), and these stocks went sideways even before April liberation days. Look at the big OEMS that haven't invested in EVs or rather invested in hybrids (GM, Ford, Toyota - Hyundai is kind of different case). Even Tesla suffering big drawdowns in their EV sale but its stock moons due to AI robotics hype.
It's a double edge sword, as tariffs definitely do hurt the US and the ROW (except certain industries that compete with China), but it hurts China considerably more.
Biggest benefactors are Korean and American shipbuilders, Korean military industrial complex, AI robotics, memory (cyclical)...etc
But I think there might be a slowdown coming. Go look at the inventory levels of US shipping ports - its decreasing. Back when there were "recession fears" in 2023 which ultimately turned out to be incorrect, inventory levels in US shipping ports actually increased (showing economic reacceleration).
It's still not too late for Trump to pass large fiscal flows, but there is also a case of inflation as if he does provide large direct fiscal help, sticky inflation could rebound now which could mean raising rates at the end of his term and giving the presidency to the democrats. However, he needs to also win the midterms this year, and the biggest problem for voters is inflation regardless of his parroting of "stock market all time high" - he could be sacrificing the stock market at the expense of inflation/bond market. Most likely scenario is inflation also creeps up but not as fast as Covid. Frankly, it all depends on what Trump will do and you can't really predict this except that tariffs are likely to stay.
Why do you think both NDX and SPY went nowhere for three months?

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